Conditional Probability of a Fungal Pandemic

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 Many would argue that fungi would never become a pertinent threat to humanity due to

their opportunistic nature and inability to spread effectively, but that’s exactly what makes them

so threatening. Given fungi’s record of having deadly illnesses, it’s important to recognize the

constant adaptation of these pathogens, and how they can cause a large outbreak at any moment

while catching a ride with some other virus. My essay will explore the various conditions that

fungus needs to be put in for such an outbreak to occur. I will delve into two scenarios: the

possibility of a fungal pandemic based on older cases, and the possibility of a fungal pandemic

with specific conditions.

Recently, HBO released a show based on a video game: The Last of Us. The series

revolves around a fungal species, Ophiocordyceps, mutating into a species that can live under

hotter temperatures because of global warming; thus, the fungus can live in and control humans

in a zombie-like state. While the series’ realism is a bit far-fetched, it acts as a reminder that

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fungus can pose a genuine threat if given the right conditions, which is why I will explore those

possibilities in this essay.

COVID-19, as most are aware, was a global pandemic that took the world by storm, as it

was considered more infectious than the flu, an already well-known virus that spreads rapidly

through the lungs, nose, and mouth. COVID-19, alongside other viruses, can weaken the immune

system at a large scale, and that causes large populations to be prone to even deadlier fungi.

Many fungi are known as opportunistic pathogens, which means they take advantage of any host

weakened by another virus or disease. As of 2022, there have been 3 fungal infections reported in

patients with severe COVID-19: aspergillosis, invasive candidiasis, and mucormycosis (more

commonly known as black fungus).

With all that in mind, it’s important to recognize the likelihood of these pathogens

causing a mass outbreak by putting them into specific and plausible conditions that may occur in

the future to assess what measures need to be made for it.

As of today, there is never a single method to calculate a near-impossible pandemic

without excluding various factors that may come into play. So, to counter this, I will simplify the

equation down to the simple use of the Rule of Conditional Probability.

The Rule of Conditional Probability states:

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)

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To visualize this formula, I’ll give an example using a table.

Let’s say the given probability numbers are .20 for 17 or older, .40 for 6 or more classes,

and .60 for 16 and younger and 5 or less, and let’s say we want to find the probability of a student

passing 6 or more classes given that they are 17 or older. You can fill in the rest of the blanks

with the given information as the totals of each section would equal 1, as that would be 100%.

To find the probability of a student passing 6 or more classes given that they are 17 or

older, I would first multiply the probability of passing 6 or more classes by the probability of

being 17 or older (0.20 x 0.40), and with that product, we would simply divide it by the given

probability of being 17 or older, which is 17 or older. After plugging in all our numbers, our final

answer would be 0.40 or 40%.

Here’s the table:

And here’s the filled-in equation:

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 𝑃(.20)×𝑃(.40)
0. 4 = 𝑃(.20)

Now, for these two calculations, I will be using a fungus called Candida Auris, which has

shown to be the most potent and dangerous against humans due to it being resistant to many

antifungal drugs. For the historical calculation, I will base the chances of Candida Auris causing

a future fungal pandemic on prior cases of other infectious fungi, including Candida Auris. The

three most recent cases are black fungus, which spread rapidly as it was during COVID-19,

Candida Auris, which had nearly 10,000 cases in Canada throughout 2022, and Cryptococcus,

having more than 112,000 deaths every year in HIV patients. To not go out too far, I limited the

cases to those occurring in the past 100 years, and these cases came out as the most prevalent.

With this in mind, let’s now dive into my set conditions for our second fungal pandemic

equation. These two answers, For the set conditioning, I need to be careful in choosing what to

alter because if the condition seems too implausible, then the final answer wouldn’t seem viable

for consideration, so what set condition do I make?

As I’ve mentioned before, The Last of Us series used global warming to justify fungus

being able to live in human temperatures, and while the series does fail to consider many other

factors, the use of temperature isn’t too far off. According to Climate.gov, the planet rises .32℉

every decade since 1981. While that doesn’t seem like a lot, any slight increase in temperature

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may lead to animals needing to adapt, and natural selection has had many occasions where it

didn’t waste time to adapt to certain conditions.

While many would argue that my inspirations and topic don’t entirely align, I will say

that The Last of Us series created this ambition in me to explore the world and its subtleties. The

series created a bleak world ensued by chaos, but using it as my reason for engagement in this

essay helped me find beauty in the chaos. Math is orderly, simple, and perfect in its conclusion,

and The Last of Us made me realize that. When there is a story that can inspire people beyond

mere characters and entertainment, it’s clear that they did something right.

Work Cited:

- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-tem

perature#:~:text=Earth's%20temperature%20has%20risen%20by,0.18%C2%B0%20C

- https://www.pfizer.com/news/articles/the_truth_about_covid_19_and_black_fungus#:~:te

xt=The%20novel%20coronavirus%20has%20recently,19%20associated%20mucormycos

is%20(CAM).&text=The%20resurgence%20of%20these%20rare%20fungal%20infection

s%20has%20medical%20personnel%20concerned.

- https://www.mdedge.com/chestphysician/article/260014/infectious-diseases/rise-fungi-pa

ndemic-tied-increasing-fungal

- https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/infections/index.html#:~:text=Many%20fungal%20infection

s%20are%20opportunistic%20infections.