Brazilian energy sector secret: The higher the reservoir level, the higher the river flow

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Julian David Hunt1, Behnam Zakeri1, Dorel Soares Ramos2, Mauricio Tiomno Tolmasquim3, Bojan

Đurin4, Roberto Brandão3, Rodrigo Senne Santos5, Fabio Tales Bindemann5, Yoshihide Wada6,1

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Abstract

It is a well-known fact that the climate and hydrology of a region can be significantly impacted

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by water management practices. Typically, the downstream river flow is decreased in average because

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of new hydropower reservoirs development and operation due to an increase in evaporation in

upstream dams. However, this is not true in every situation, as the present study demonstrates,

showing how hydropower storage reservoirs can help boost river flows in humid locations like Brazil.
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Water storage and hydropower generation data from Brazilian basins in the Southeast region have

been used to test this hypothesis. We discover that Brazil's river flows are significantly impacted by
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the operation of hydropower reservoirs. On average the yearly hydropower potential of a basin

operation with full reservoir is 111% higher than when reservoirs are empty. In order to increase
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hydropower generation, the paper suggests solutions to fill up reservoirs after an energy crisis and to

keep reservoirs full.

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Keywords: hydropower, regional climate, energy policy, energy crisis, energy security, water

management.
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Highlights:
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1 InternationalInstitute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), hunt@iiasa.ac.at, +43 650 906 7841.
2 Polytechnic School, São Paulo University, Brazil.
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3 Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

4 University North, Koprivnica, Croatia.
5 Âmbar Energia, Brazil
6 King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia.

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  Impact of the reservoir level on the hydropower of 111%.

 São Francisco basin reservoirs have the highest impact on hydropower generation.

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 Hydropower reservoirs can work as seasonal thermal energy storage.

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1 Introduction

A region's climate and precipitation profile can be significantly impacted by land and water

management. These effects might be very different. Deforestation can have an impact on regional

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average temperatures [1], precipitation patterns [2–4], and other effects [5–7]. The regional climate

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is influenced by changes in both land use and water consumption patterns, which have an impact on

a region's evapotranspiration [8–10]. The effects of agricultural irrigation on local temperatures and

precipitation have attracted a lot of attention in specialized areas of research [11–14]. Agricultural
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irrigation raises soil and atmospheric humidity, and because evaporation requires the removal of heat

from the atmosphere by water, it lowers the average temperature in the region. As such, some experts
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suggest a regional adaptation strategy for climate change [17] to incorporate this relationship between

land and water management and climate [18].

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With the war in Ukraine and the increase in natural gas prices worldwide, renewable energy

generation as hydropower is receiving a lot of attention, particularly due to its high operational
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flexibility and low CO2 emissions. In this sense the International Energy Agency (IEA) has

acknowledged that hydropower will play a significant role in the future of electricity generation [19].
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Future hydropower projects should be planned to reduce significant ecological impacts and to aid

nations and basins in better coping with climate change-related vulnerabilities, such as droughts and

floods [20,21].
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Large hydropower reservoirs may cause significant amounts of evaporation, which lowers the

river flow downstream [22–25]. For instance, the Keban Dam in Turkey had little effect on
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precipitation patterns [26] but reduced river flow downstream of the dam as a result of reservoir

evaporation. However, this is not the case in highly humid regions, like the Southeast region in Brazil.

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 This region has two clearly distinct seasons, one of these is a dry season when the relative humidity

sharply drops. It occurs when river flows and reservoir levels are at their lowest points, between May

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and October [27]. On the other hand, the relative humidity during the wet season is particularly high.

Evaporation in the reservoirs helps to maintain high humidity, further raising regional precipitation

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[28,29]. It has been shown that the construction of reservoirs has significantly contributed to

increasing the river flow [28]. Also, the operation of these reservoirs has a defining impact on the

average flow of the river upstream of the dam [29]. The higher the reservoir levels, the higher the

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river flow and hydropower generation (Figure 1). This assertion is supported by numerous studies

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that cover the topic [30–32], particularly those that focus on Brazil's São Francisco river [33–35].

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Figure 1: Comparison of Brazil's Southeast regions' average affluent natural energy (ANE) and

water storage (2000 to 2021). Average ANE is an estimation of the total hydropower potential that
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can be extracted from the river, assuming no manmade disruptions in the river flow.

The impact of reservoirs in humid climates may be explained by the fact that, between

November and April, during the wet season in Brazil's Southeast region, the average humidity is
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around 70%, and the average wind speed is low [36]. As a result, there is little evaporation, and any

more evaporation helps to raise area precipitation, which in turn raises the reservoir's river flow. The
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area that is flooded and the soil humidity around storage reservoirs rise as they fill up. This raises the

rate of evaporation, which raises the air's humidity and lowers the temperature of the local climate.

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 When a warm, humid weather front approaches these reservoirs in an environment with higher

humidity and lower temperature, the likelihood of precipitation rises [29]. On the other hand, the

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flooded area and surrounding soil humidity are lower when reservoir useful volume are empty. This

lowers the rate of evaporation, which lowers the air's humidity and raises the warmth of the local

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climate. The likelihood of precipitation diminishes as the atmosphere becomes warmer and less

humid as a warm and humid front approach these reservoirs. Figure 2 illustrates this occurrence in an

illustrative form.

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Figure 2: Diagram illustrating how hydroelectric reservoir levels affect local precipitation.

Energy crises of various lengths and geographic scopes have historically had an impact on the
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Brazilian energy sector, including those of the years 1924, 1944, 1955, 1964, 1986, 2001, 2014 and

2021 [37,38]. Most often, climatic factors were to blame for crises because they directly affect the
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nation's predominately hydropower-based energy system. However, a recent paper shows that the

recent crisis, from 1986 to today, was caused by social-economic cycles [29]. The increase in

electricity consumption during years of high economic growth combined with low investment in the
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 energy sector results in the depletion of hydropower reservoirs in the Southeastern region of Brazil,

which significantly reduces river flow, the generation head of the dams and hydropower generation

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in the following year, causing an energy crisis in the country.

The purpose of this research is to show, for the first time, the impact of reservoir storage levels

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on the average overall hydropower generation of the respective basins in the Southeast region of

Brazil. The paper identifies possible reasons for these impacts. There are four sections in this paper.

The methods used in this paper are presented in Section 2. The paper's findings are presented in

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Section 3. The outcomes of this investigation are discussed in Section 4. The paper is concluded in

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Section 5.

2 Methodology er
The methodology applied in this paper is described in Figure 3 and consists of the following

steps. Step 1 gathers historical data on the reservoir levels and natural river flow of the dams analyzed
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(Figure 3a). Affluent natural energy (ANE) is an estimation of the hydropower potential that could

be extracted from the river flow, assuming that there is no water extraction from the river, water
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storage, or evaporation in reservoir dams. ANE calculation assumes that the existing dams generate

electricity with their reservoirs 65% filled up [39]. This allows the natural river flow estimated in
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2000 to be compared with the estimated natural river flow in 2021. Data on the reservoir level and

ANE was taken from [40].

In Step 2, the month with the minimum water storage level in the basin is found, which varies
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from August to December. The minimum water storage level is compared to the average ANE for the

subsequent 12 months (from November to October of the following year). To determine the effect of
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the reservoir level on the river flow, these data are then plotted on a graph, and a linear regression is

developed.
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Figure 3: Flow chart outlining the technique used in the study and highlighting (a) historical

reservoir level and river flow, (b) the data used in the analysis, (c) a comparison of reservoir level
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and river flow.

The hydropower basin analyzed in this paper is shown in Figure 4. The following criteria were
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used to choose these dams: basins with large storage reservoirs at the head of the main river and

highly seasonal flow with the lowest storage level reached at the end of the Southeast dry period.

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Figure 4: Main hydropower basins in Brazil, highlighting basins studied in this paper. Adapted from
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[41].

Table 1: Description, evaluation, and reservoir filling sequence for a dam.

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Basins Reservoir dams

São Francisco Queimados, Retiro Baixo, Três Marias, Sobradinho, Itaparica

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Nova Ponte, Serra do Facão, Batalha, São Simão,

Paranaíba Emborcação, Itumbiara, Miranda, Corumbá, Corumbá III,
Corumbá IV, Caçu, Barra dos Coqueiros, Espora
Camargos, Furnas, Mascarenhas de Moraes, Marimbondo,
Grande
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Água Vermelha, Caconde

Billings, Guarapiranga, Ponte Nova, Barra Bonita,
Tietê
Promissão, Três Irmãos
Paranapanema Jurumurim, Chavantes, Capirava, Mauá
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Paraíba do Sul Paraibuna, Santa Branca, Jaguani, Funil

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3 Results

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 Results from Step 2 are displayed in Figure 5 and Table 2. Figure 5 compares the average

ANE in the São Francisco, Paranaíba, Grande, Tietê, Paranapanema and Paraíba do Sul basins (from

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November to the following October), with the reservoir minimum reservoir level at the end of the dry

period (from August to January). As can be seen in all basins, the higher the reservoir levels just

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before the wet period begins, the higher the ANE of the following year.

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Figure 5: Comparison of the month with minimum water storage level and the average ANE of the

following 12 months in the São Francisco, Grande, Paranaíba, Paranapanema, Tietê and Paraíba do
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Sul basins.

Table 2 demonstrates that, on average, comparing the reservoirs full or empty at the end of
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 the dry season, the ANE of the Southeast region would increase by 110%. The São Francisco basin

causes a 230% increase in ANE, making it the basin with the largest increase in ANE when the

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reservoir is full. The Paraiba do Sul basin, with an increase in flowrate of 31.7%, is the basin where

the reservoir level has the least effect on hydropower. To determine the degree to which the reservoir

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affects the typical river flow during the rainy season, the coefficient of determination (R2) is

calculated. The R2 with no anomalous data is also estimated after standard residuals greater than 1 or

smaller than -1 are eliminated. São Francisco and Tietê have the highest and lowest R2 values with

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and without atypical data, respectively, at 0.6116 and 0.2647 and 0.1620 and 0.0433, respectively.

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Figure 5 presents the Number of occurrences per month with minimum water storage level and

maximum ANE per basin.

Table 2: River flow increasing with overall reservoir level change and regression line constants.
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Increase in Regression line in R2 with
ANE (%) Figure 5 (Y = aX+b) standard
Basins R2
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(full vs residuals
empty) a b <-1 and >1
São Francisco 230.1 0.0643 3.3722 0.6116 0.2647
Paranaíba 112.5 0.0351 3.099 0.5277 0.2332
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Grande 75.5 0.0245 3.2450 0.4952 0.2170

Tietê 40.6 0.0095 0.6757 0.1620 0.0433
Paranapanema 173.4 0.0152 0.8766 0.4906 0.1677
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Paraíba do Sul 31.7 0.0023 0.7264 0.2709 0.1125

Average 110.6 - - 0.4263 0.1731
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Figure 6: Number of occurrences of (a) month with minimum water storage level and (b)

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maximum ANE per basin.

As demonstrated in Table 3, São Francisco is the basin with the biggest reservoir area

variation, i.e. the maximum reservoir area minus the minimum reservoir area, basin area, water
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storage capacity and increase in generation with a full reservoir (taken from Figure 5). The Paranaíba

basin is the basin with the biggest energy storage capacity. The basin that increased hydropower
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generation the most with reservoir level is São Francisco, with an average rise of 7.02 GW. Paraíba

do Sul, with 0.23 GW, is the dam with the least increase in generation.
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Table 3: Description, evaluation, and reservoir filling sequence for a dam.

Reservoir Basin Reservoir Reservoir Increase in Increase in
Reservoirs
area area storage: storage: capacity with generation
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Basins 2 filling
variation (km ) water energy full reservoir / storage
order
(km2) (km3) (TWh) (GW) capacity
São Francisco 4010 641000 48.0 39.5 7.02 0.177638 1
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Paranaíba 3504 223000 45.1 48.5 3.51 0.0724 4

Grande 1669 143000 31.3 40.1 2.45 0.061103 6
Tietê 545 72000 9.5 9.5 0.95 0.099628 3
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Paranapanema 506 100800 12.6 9.4 1.52 0.162334 2

Paraíba do Sul 147 56500 4.3 3.4 0.23 0.06813 5
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The reservoir dams' ability to store energy is a key consideration for determining the sequence

in which the reservoirs should be filled. The nation's electrical supply will need to come from other

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 sources, or the demand for electricity will need to be cut if the hydropower generation is decreased

to allow the reservoirs to recompose. Paranaíba basin has a maximum energy storage capacity of 48.5

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TWh. The Paraíba do Sul basin has the smallest storage capacity, 3.4 TWh. The basin that will boost

hydropower generating the most while requiring the least energy storage should be filled up first. The

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“Increase in generation with full reservoir (GW)” and “Reservoir storage: energy (TWh)” columns

are divided by one another to determine this. The priority for filling the dam rises as the values rise.

Thus, the basins that should be filled up first are São Francisco, then Paranapanema, then Tietê, then

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Paranaíba, then Paraíba do Sul, then Grande.

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Figure 7 shows the relation between the increase in ANE of all analyzed basins, excluding the

Paranapanema basin. The Paranapanema basin was excluded because it sits between the South and

Southeast region and has a different climate dynamic than the other five regions. Figure 7 shows that
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the larger the variation in the area of the basin reservoirs, the basin area, the water storage capacity

and the latitude of the reservoirs, the larger the impact of the reservoir levels in the basin. This
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indicates that: (i) the higher the latitude of the basin, the higher the impact of the reservoir levels on

the climate and hydropower generation, (ii) the construction of more reservoirs will contribute to
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further increasing the hydropower potential of these basins.

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Figure 7: Correlation between (a) basin reservoir area variation (R2=0.8121), (b) basin total area

(R2=0.9831), (c) basin water storage capacity (R2=0.7147), (d) latitude of largest reservoir

(R2=0.9954) and the increase in ANE.

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4 Discussion
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The only year when the reservoirs in the Southeast region of Brazil were close to 100% in

October was in 1981. This was done with the intention of accelerating the filling of the Itaipu reservoir
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(the biggest hydropower plant in Brazil). The wet period of the year 81-82 rained so much that the

annual average ANE of Southeast basins, including the Paraná River exceeded 200%. This increase
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in hydropower generation validates the results of the articles, which suggests an average increase of

110% in hydropower generation throughout the year, if reservoirs are 100% in October.
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4.1 Temperature fluctuation

Seasonal and pluriannual hydropower plants store a considerable amount of thermal energy
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 in their reservoirs from winter to the summer and vice-versa. For example, Serra da Mesa has a total

volume of 54 km3 of water. Assuming it operates at close to full year-round, that the average

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temperature difference between winter and summer is 8oC, that the bottom 60% of the reservoir is

below the thermocline, this reservoir could store 302 TWh of cold (54,000,000,000 m3 x 1000 kg/m3

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x 0.6% x 4.2 kJ/kgC x 8 ∆T /1000/1000/1000/3600 = 302 TWh) from the winter to the summer. This

equivalent to 1% of the electricity consumed worldwide. If this thermal storage potential were to be

harnessed, it would have a huge impact on the climate of the basin, lowering the basin's temperature

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and increasing precipitation.

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Part of this cooling stored during the winter is released when the water flows to the dams

downstream. This is because the hydropower water intake to the powerhouse generally is situated

nearby the minimum operation height of the reservoir, as shown in Figure 8a. During the winter, the
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temperature of the entire reservoir reaches close to the average daily mean temperature during the

coldest month of the year (Figure 8b). As the reservoir is depleted, the temperature of the water that
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passes through the turbines increase, as shown in Figure 8c. This has an overall increase in the

temperature of the water in the reservoirs downstream. The increase in the temperature of the river
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and reservoirs downstream of the main reservoir might contribute to increase the temperature of the

basin, reducing the relative humidity of the basin and reducing precipitation during the summer.
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Figure 8: Impact of reservoir levels on the temperature of the river (a) during the summer with high

reservoir level, (b) winter with high reservoir level, (c) summer with low reservoir level, (d) winter
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with low reservoir level.

One approach that the cold water in the bottom of the reservoir would be extracted, is

presented in Figure 9cd, which consists of adding a pipeline from the water intake to the bottom of
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the reservoir. This would allow colder water from the bottom of the reservoir to be extracted year
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around, which would enhance the use of the reservoir as a thermal energy storage battery, reduce the

temperature of the river and reservoirs downstream the dams, in turn, increasing the precipitation and

the hydropower generation potential of the basin. Apart from increasing hydropower generation in
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the basin, this alternative could help the Southeastern region of Brazil to better adapt to the increases

in temperature caused by climate change.

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Figure 9: Use of reservoir as thermal energy storage batteries during (a) during normal operation

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and (b) drought operation.

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4.2 Reservoir level at the end of the dry period
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Once all of Brazil's reservoir dams have been filled to their maximum at the end of the wet

period, the emphasis will be on operating the reservoirs in a way that maximizes river flow while
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minimizing flow losses due to spillage. The capacity of the basin to store more river flow and lessen

spillage increases with low reservoir levels. However, as this research demonstrates, if the reservoir

level is low, the river's natural flow is severely reduced. The optimum minimum reservoir level
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suggested to increase hydropower generation and minimize spillage varies from basin to basin and

year to year but can be assumed to be 60 to 70% [29].

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4.3 Seasonal pumped hydropower storage

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The construction of seasonal pumped hydropower storage (SPHS) plants parallel to the main

river is one option to allow the hydropower reservoirs to operate close to full, with the intention of
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increasing the river flow while at the same time reducing the risk of flood and losses with spillage

(Figure 10a) [42]. Pumping to a new or existing upper reservoir in smaller tributaries of the main

river, SPHS plants draw water from hydroelectric reservoirs dams that are already in place (Figure
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10b). The Northeast region's SPHS can be used to store extra seasonal electricity produced by wind

power plants, in addition to boosting the cascade's hydropower generation and water supply for
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 various uses [63]. Due to SPHS's significant reservoir level variation, a tiny amount of space is needed

to store a lot of water and energy (Figure 10c [43]), however, the costs of SPHS is significantly higher

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than conventional reservoirs dams [42]. For Brazilian river basins, a number of SPHS plants have

been suggested in [44–46]. On [47], many recently proposed setups for SPHS are shown. Energy crop

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storage is a different option for storing energy and water seasonally parallel to a major river, as seen

in [48].

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Figure 10: Land use [43] for traditional reservoir dams and seasonal pumped hydropower storage
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plants are shown in the images of seasonal pumped hydropower storage plants (SPHS) in (a) a

cascade, (b) a lateral perspective, and (c) a comparison between water and energy storage.

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 5 Conclusions

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This study has demonstrated that the hydropower generation in Brazil's Southeast region is

significantly influenced by the reservoir levels. The average impact of the dams' minimum reservoir

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levels can result in an increase in hydropower generation of up to 110% in the following 12 months.

This aspect demonstrates that, on a weekly and monthly basis, the river intake affects the reservoir

level, while, on an annual scale, the reservoir level determines the river flow. To lessen the need for

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thermal electricity to exit an energy crisis in Brazil, the basins should be filled in the following order:

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São Francisco, Paranapanema, Tietê, Paranaíba, Paraíba do Sul and Grande. Brazil has a substantial

hydropower potential that has not been fully realized since the drought in 2014 and 2015. To increase

hydropower production with its existing dams, lower its electricity costs, and lower CO2 emissions
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from thermal electricity sources, the nation should concentrate on generating electricity from other

renewable energy such as, solar and wind power, and conserve energy so that the reservoir levels of
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the dams in the Southeast region are recomposed and maintained high.
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6 Acknowledgements

We would like to thank funding from the State Grid Brazil Holdings and Âmbar Energia via
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the Brazilian Agency of Electric Energy R&D program to the projects entitled “Framework

Development for Pumped Storage Hydro Power Projects” and “Eficientização Energética de Usina
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Termelétrica a Gás Através do Aproveitamento Termodinâmico do Gás Natural”.

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