Probability and Probability Distributions II: Tutorial 3 Solutions

1. The binomial probability distribution

i) Calculate (if possible) the following factorials:

(a) 7! 7  6  5  4  3  2  1  5040

(b) (-3)! This cannot be calculated since ‘x’ has to be a positive integer
(c) -(3!) = -(3 x 2 x 1) = -6
5  4  3  2 1
(d) 5!/3!   5  4  20
3  2 1

ii) Calculating combinations

3! 3! 321
  3
(a) 1!( 31)! 1!2! 1( 21)
7! 76543 21 765 210
    35
(b) 4!( 7  4 )! ( 43 21)( 3 21) 3 21 6
3! 3! 321
  1
(c) 3!( 33)! 3!0! 3211
13! 13! 131211! 156
    78
(d) 2!(13 2 )! 2!11! ( 21)11! 2

iii) Calculating binomial probabilities

In order to interpret the following probabilities we must first assume a number of things (as outlined in the Week 3
lecture Probability and Distributions Part 2).

1) There are only two possible mutually exclusive outcomes.

This is reasonable since a family member either has evidence of exposure or does not.

2) The probability of success p is constant from trial to trial.

In this case success is evidence of exposure and “trial” means family member. We are asked to assume
that p = 0.3 for each family member so we assume this is reasonable.

3) Each trial’s result is unaffected by any other trial’s result; in other words, the trials are independent.

This suggests that exposure for any one family member will be unaffected by whether or not other
members have exposure, i.e. the event of exposure is independent for all members. Again we are asked
to assume this – so this should be reasonable.

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 5!
(a) P( X  1)  p(1)  (0.3)1 (0.7) 4  5  0.3  0.24  0.36
1!(5  1)!
This is the probability of exactly one family member having evidence of exposure.

5!
(b) P( X  4)  p(4)  (0.3) 4 (0.7)1  5  0.0081 0.7  0.0284
4!(5  4)!
This is the probability of exactly four family members having evidence of exposure.

5!
(c) P( X  5)  p(5)  (0.3) 5 (0.7) 0  1 0.00243 1  0.00243
5!(5  5)!

This is the probability of all five family members having evidence of exposure .

(d ) P ( X  2 or X  3)  P ( X  2)  P ( X  3)  P ( X  2 and X  3) *
 P ( X  2)  P ( X  3)  0
 1  [ P (0)  P (1)  P ( 4)  P (5)]
 1  (0.168  0.36  0.0284  0.00243)
 1  0.5588  0.44

* This term is included here simply as it is standard for the calculation of the probability, i.e . P(A or B) = P(A) +
P(B) – P(A and B). In this case we know that our events are mutually exclusive, i.e. we can’t have exactly 2
members with exposure AND exactly 3 members with exposure at the same time so P(A and B) = 0.

(d) makes use of probabilities we have already calculated and the fact that
Note: the approach for
P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)=1. P(X=2) and P(X=3) could also be calculated as in (a) – (c).

2. The Normal distribution

As introduced in lectures, the systolic blood pressure for Australian women aged 20-24 appeared to follow a
Normal distribution with μ = 120 mmHg and σ = 11 mmHg.

(a) Shade the appropriate regions on your sketches corresponding to probability (i), i.e. the probability of a woman
(chosen at random from this population) having a systolic blood pressure of greater than or equal to 140 mmHg.

Applying the standard Normal transformation Z = (X – ) / gives= (140 - 120)/11 = 1.82.



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(b) Shade the appropriate regions on your sketches corresponding to probability (ii), i.e. the probability of a woman
(chosen at random from this population) having a systolic blood pressure at least as extreme as 140 mmHg.

At this point you need to think about what “at least as extreme” means. Since an extreme observation from a
Normal distribution (or any symmetric distribution for that matter) is characterised as such by its distance away
from the mean of the distribution, “at least as extreme” would mean any observation at least as far away from the
mean as 140 is from 120, i.e. observations that fall in the shaded regions below (i.e. Z > 1.82 or Z < -1.82
define the appropriate region):

(c) Using statistical tables 1 and/or 2, calculate probabilities (i) and (ii).

For probability (i) :

 140  120 
P( X  140)  P Z  
 11 
 P( Z  1.82)
 0.0344

which we can find on Table 1 in the Statistical Tables.

For probability (ii) :

 140  120 
P(| X |  140)  P | Z |  
 11 
 P( | Z |  1.82)
 P( Z  1.82)  P( Z  1.82)
 0.0688

which we can find in Table 2 of the Statistical Tables (or 2 x 0.0344, from probability (i)).

(d) Now that you have mastered this approach (!), calculate the probability of randomly selecting a woman from
this population with a systolic blood pressure between 90 mmHg and 140 mmHg.
As always, it is important to start with a rough sketch of the region of interest. In this case we are actually
interested in the region between 90 and 140 but it may be easier to calculate the area to the left of 90 and to the
right of 140 and then simply calculate 1 minus the sum of those areas – since the area under the full curve=1. So
in this picture (below) we are interested in the area ‘shaded’ in white!

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All we need to calculate now is the probability that X is less than 90, i.e.

 90  120 
P( X  90)  P Z  
 11 
 P( Z  2.73)
 0.0032.

This probability can be found from Table 1 in Statistical Tables by using the rule that since the Normal distribution
is symmetric, P( Z  2.73)  P( Z  2.73)  0.0032 .

We may then calculate

P(90  X  140)  1  [ P( Z  2.73)  P( Z  1.82)]

 1  [0.0032  0.0344]
 0.9624.

Alternatively, we can calculate the relevant probability as follows:

P(90  X  140)  P 2.73  Z  1.82

 P( Z  1.82)  P( Z  2.73)
 (1  0.0344)  0.0032
 0.9656  0.0032  0.9624.
(e) Explain why this value may also be used to estimate the proportion of women in this population with systolic
blood pressure between 90 mmHg and 140 mmHg.

If the probability of a woman (chosen at random from this population) having a systolic blood pressure between 90
mmHg and 140mmHg is 0.9624 (i.e. 96%), then this should correspond to 96% of this population of women with
this characteristic.

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