Global Gas Presentation A changing gas world order: The impact of the Rus: crisis on Europe and global LNG -Ukraine nowapanet Chong 25 Xn, rita chong epsobl om S&P Global Two phases of reordering global gas. Fixed volume of New supply to ‘supply to be shared compensate for ‘cross the world Russian exports +The iaw of long toad tos’ + Now LNG supply stats up + Europe and Asia competing + Destinalion-specific oF sdd to agaregators + Elvaied prices + Low Russian pipe exports to Europe; + Continued Russian gas exports? Russian LNG expansion stymied”? + Supply catet-up or overshoot? + Upside demand drivers: Europesn diversification from Russia, organic Asian growth + Downside demand drivers: price-diven demand destruction especialy in emeraing marketsLNG prices have seen extreme volatility in 2022 but spot LNG prices have trended downwards post-winter European month-ahead hub prices and LNG DES assessments Tr heteihih — —NatEeeNGSES mga yuo & = is zg 2 ° a oe ee Russian pipeline exports to Europe are far below historical levels, leaving European buyers needing to import more LNG, tightening the global market Europe: Russian pipeline imports 2015-20 Range 201 2m 202 2015 s0avenae i i i Morar May) Sep Ok NwLNG supply growth modest until 2025-26—meaning increased European import needs will be met by diversion from other markets. Liquefaction capacity under construction /FID taken by expected online date ssPaquemres + Capus inst ING sNges Congo ep) ——e le an Ee 2005 Higher European LNG import needs mostly offset by slowdown in growth in Asian markets LNG demand ousok: sana 2023 {NG mand ouboke Change ence Dassabar2021Increase in LNG supply contracting over past 12 months, driven mostly by Asia Pacific and more recently Europe LLNG contracts by quarter signed and importing market seartaa Crna aJ3p80 sSounioes sina oper ssa sEuope © aPontto 2 pa SIEEEGEE LIS SS Se Senn LNG contracts by quarter signed and export country EPS LOTS HERS SAE OE ES id Tailwinds now supporting more LNG FIDs, but concern over costs and supply chain Forecast liquefaction FiDs by country (January 2023 outlook) United Sttos —atozanbiue Russia Scango epic) Case {Papuation Gonea ita ‘Sram Suined ib Emvaies ‘utook sNgera stloxco ser ny fhartena-Seregsl «Ausra NantonStrong liquefaction FIDs over the next few years risk outpacing import needs, especially if Asian demand growth is further slowed {NG demand vere global LNG supply Higher European LNG import needs mostly offset by slowdown in growth in Asian markets {NG demas ouook: Janay 2023 ‘Key uncertainties in the LNG demand outlook TeScectaunmieia esanee Se + WillRussan piped gas impots to Europe continue? “ee ~ + How quickly wil European LNG demand deciine? ~ + WilSutheast Asia continue to push on to install new gas ‘red powerplants and move away from coat? + WillSout Asia be able fo fod natural gas and LNG “ ‘siven volte prices? 5 oe + How wi ne-2or0 targets impact our grow expectations ill —Global gas price outlook: Tighter LNG market expected until mid-2020s through higher European imports. Market rebalancing in early-2030s? ‘Benchmark gas price outlooks: January 2023 Bren 200 Hy Hu Asin st = = Asan cot yi or inal Viagem te wor nects—oped demand Scns vue son pce tec J+ Higneesimpacten (No comand acu srmnghaye, = Tung! when gona is matters tobalnce Site it ces expe sl gb pene Youghdteydecouecfnar SS tare Cutook, Rea12024 Ussaaves India’s domestic gas supply is expected to peak in 2026-27, supported by new gas production from the eastern and western offshore acreages nia: Dometic ge productin oulok (ils) tay [soreness tor Celene ahrcmtesGas demand is forecast to grow by 3.4% in the medium term, driven by higher feedstock requirements, industrial growth, and CGD sector expansion Ini: Watt g deren cutlon (i) a cpa SES ge anno Ss pe ae e High spot prices will continue to constrain near-term LNG imports; however India’s LNG demand growth will eventually require new contracts to be signed LNG demand outlook for India Indi: LNG imports esi oman A) = Long-term LNG offtake contracts by Petronet LNG with SEs TT Sieroter (Qatargas and Gorgon LNG. While GAIL has a sizable LNG Sneeze Sac" ‘ommake from the Uned Stats, See Samson + Petronet LNG looking to extend Qatargas long-term LNG supply contract expiring in 2028. Similarly, GAIL sooking term supply owing fo uncertainty of Gazprom contract + Inne near term, LNG imports ere expected 10 remain ‘constrained owing to high spot LNG prices and increased domeste gas ouput + Post 2027, domestic gas is expected to decline end more LING volunios wil be required fo fil bo supply demand gap cover the ned decades, oe eee eaeGens ams partot S&P Global