Russia-Ukraine Crisis Final

“Welcome to PANACEA INSTITUTE
MULTAN”
RUSSIA – UKRAINE
ANIMOSITY
Instructor
Muhammad Waqas
(PAAS,49th CTP)
Panacea Institute CSS/PMS Multan 17-A Officers Colony Multan 0300 80 70 666
Wednesday, February 23: In a Wednesday night speech, Russian
President Vladimir Putin said that a “special military operation”
would begin in Ukraine. , it has already caused hundreds of civilian
casualties and forced more than half a million Ukrainians to flee
their homes.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his invasion of
Ukraine on February 24, he also made a more nebulous threat: “No
matter who tries to stand in our way or … create threats for our
country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond
immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never
seen in your entire history.”
History /Explaining the Conflict
1991
1917 ● Republics like Ukraine
began declaring
Russian revolution independence from
brought down the soviet domination .
begins a transition to
empire and the region a market economy.
spiraled into the civil war ● The soviet union
dissolved into 15
republics including
Russia
18th and
19th 1918-1921
century Ukraine briefly gained
independence from the
Ukraine was a part of
Russian rule but was
Russian empire
quickly taken over by the
new created USSR
Panacea Institute CSS/PMS Multan 17-A Officers Colony Multan
0300 80 70 666
Explaining the Conflict April 2014
Russia invades and then
1990s annexes the Ukrainian
peninsula of Crimea. Two
● The United States and secessionist regions, the
Russia worked with Donetsk People’s Republic
Ukraine to denuclearize and the neighboring
the country, and in Luhansk People’s
a series of diplomatic Republic, break off from
Ukraine.(Donbas region)
agreements, Kyiv gave its
hundreds of nuclear
warheads back to Russia
in exchange for security
Russia’s assault grew out
1990s assurances that
protected it from a of mass protests in
When the Soviet Union Ukraine that toppled the
potential Russian attack.
broke up in the early country’s pro-Russian
’90s, Ukraine, a former President Viktor
Yanukovych(over
Soviet republic, had the
abandonment of EU trade
third largest atomic deal
arsenal in the world.
Explaining the Conflict(cntd.)
April 2019 January 3, 2022
A former comedian, Volodymyr
Biden reassures Ukraine’s
Zelensky, is elected by a large President Volodymyr
majority as president of Ukraine Zelenskyy that the US will
he promised during his campaign “respond decisively” if
that he would “reboot” peace Russia invades Ukraine.
talks to end the conflict in eastern .
Ukraine
2014 -2015 Nov 2021

Russia, Ukraine,
France and Germany Satellite imagery
sign a series of cease- shows a new build-up
fire agreements known of Russian troops on
as the Minsk Accords. the border with
Ukraine
Explaining the Conflict(cntd.)
January 31, 2022
US and Russia spar over the February 21st, 2022
Ukraine crisis at a special
closed session of the UN "I deem it necessary to make
Security Council. a decision that should have
been made a long time ago –
to immediately recognize the
independence and
sovereignty of the Donetsk
People’s Republic and the
January 28, 2022 Luhansk People’s Republic" -
Ukraine’s President Vladimir Putin
Zelenkskyy warns the Putin announced
West to avoid creating his invasion of
“panic” that will Ukraine on
negatively affect his February 24,
country’s economy.
CAUSES OF THE CONFLICT
1. Ideological/Cultural Causes: Countries

with shared identities often go to war with
each other.
“Since time immemorial, the people living in the southwest of what
has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians
and Orthodox Christians. This was the case before the 17th century,
when a portion of this territory rejoined the Russian state, and
after.” – Vladimir Putin
❑ Kyiv is referred to as “the mother of Russian cities”
❑ Russian language dominates in the Eastern and Southern parts of
the country
❑ Moscow claims a duty to protect these people as a pretext for its
actions in Ukraine
2. Military/ Strategic Causes

a. Access to the ‘Black Sea’ through Crimea
• Black Sea basin holds increasing

importance as a vital area
of interest
• Russia aims to gain dominance in
the Black Sea
• Establish control over the straits
• Importance of Sevastopol. Russian
Naval Base on this port.
2. Military/ Strategic Causes

b. Counter NATO’s influence
• Color Revolutions in Russia’s neighborhood(occurred

in Russia’s neighborhood i.e. Georgia and in Ukraine,
where leaders who were more susceptible to Russian
influence and interests were replaced by pro-West
leaders)
• Six Black Sea states became members of NATO
“If Ukraine was to join NATO it would serve as a direct

threat to the security of Russia.” – Vladimir Putin
• Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014

3. Political Causes
❑ Putin views Ukraine as part of Russia’s “sphere of
influence” – a territory, rather than an independent
state
❑ Wants to re-establish the protective buffer zone like in
20th century
4. Economic Causes
❑ Over 1/3 of Russian gas exports flow through Russian-
owned pipelines in Ukraine
❑ In 2013, the Ukrainian government prepared to sign an
Association and Free-trade Agreement with the
E.U
❑ Had Ukraine joined the E.U. market, it would be unable
to join the Eurasian Economic Union
❑ Eurasian Economic Union – a Russian led union
designed to counter the E.U
❑ Rich natural resources of Eastern Ukraine, The waters
around Crimea alone contain billions of cubic meters of
oil and gas reserves
Russia’s demands
• Some of which were nonstarters for the United States and its allies in
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
• Putin demanded that NATO stop its eastward expansion and deny
membership to Ukraine
• NATO roll back troop deployment in countries that had joined after 1997,
which would turn back the clock decades on Europe’s security and
geopolitical alignment.
• the Russian leader wanted Ukraine to recognize Crimea as part of Russia
• and to recognize the independence of the separatist-run east.
• Ukraine would have to change its constitution to guarantee it would not
join NATO and the EU
Russia, the world's largest country, has few friends on its western flank and seeks to consolidate
influence in ex-USSR regions, which explains why Moscow bristles at NATO's eastward expansion
and is keen on keeping Ukraine out of the alliance
What are Ukraine's demands?
1. A ceasefire
2. And the withdrawal of Russian troops,
3. But also legally binding security guarantees that would give Ukraine
protection from a group of allied countries that would actively prevent
attacks
What next for Russia?
1. The EU, US, UK and Canada targeted Russia's economy in a variety of ways:
2. Russia's central bank has had its assets frozen and major banks are shut out of the
international SWIFT payment transfer network.
3. The US has banned imports of Russian oil and gas; the EU aims to cut gas imports by
two-thirds within a year; and the UK aims to phase out Russian oil by the end of
2022
4. Germany has halted approval on Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, a major
investment by both Russia and European companies
5. Russian airlines have been barred from airspace over the EU, UK, US and Canada
6. Personal sanctions have been imposed on President Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov and many other individuals
What are the Minsk agreements?
1. What Russia wants is for Zelensky to implement the 2014 and ’15 Minsk agreements, deals that
would bring the pro-Russian regions back into Ukraine but would amount to, as one expert said,
a “Trojan horse” for Moscow to wield influence and control
2. Minsk I
3. Ukraine and the Russia-backed separatists agreed on a 12-point ceasefire deal in September
2014.
4. Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of
heavy weapons. However, the agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides.
5. Minsk II
Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE) and the leaders of separatist-held regions Donetsk and Luhansk signed a 13-point
agreement in February 2015.
6. The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine gathered in Minsk to mark the occasion and
issued a declaration of support
MINSK II
1. The deal’s 13 points were:
2. Immediate, comprehensive ceasefire.
3. Withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides.
4. OSCE monitoring.
5. Dialogue on interim self-government for Donetsk and Luhansk, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and
acknowledgement of special status by parliament.
6. Pardon, amnesty for fighters.
7. Exchange of hostages, prisoners.
8. Humanitarian assistance.
9. Resumption of socioeconomic ties
10. Ukraine to restore control of state border.
11. Withdrawal of foreign armed formations, military equipment, mercenaries.
12. Constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralisation, with specific mention of Donetsk
and Luhansk.
13. Elections in Donetsk and Luhansk.
14. Intensify Trilateral Contact Group’s work including representatives of Russia, Ukraine and OSCE.
ANALYSIS
1. The Minsk II deal set out military and political steps that remain unimplemented.
2. A major blockage has been Russia’s insistence that it is not a party to the conflict and therefore
is not bound by its terms.
3. In general, Moscow and Kyiv interpret the pact very differently, leading to what has been
dubbed by some observers as the “Minsk conundrum”.
4. Ukraine sees the 2015 agreement as an instrument to re-establish control over the rebel
territories.
5. Russia views the deal as obliging Ukraine to grant rebel authorities in Donbas comprehensive
autonomy and representation in the central government, effectively giving Moscow the power
to veto Kyiv’s foreign policy choices.
6. Only then would Russia return the Russia-Ukraine border to Kyiv’s control
7. Just before his invasion, President Putin tore up the peace agreement and recognised two
Russian-backed statelets as independent from Ukraine
GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS
❑ Implications on Pakistan:
➢ Picking sides would further alienate the country in a singular orbit
(Stuck between Devil and the Deep Sea)
➢ Economically, Pakistan must be ready for a prolonged higher oil
prices north of $100 a barrel
➢ If imports are not curtailed and exports do not grow, we may need
to raise interest rate to near 12% or pressure on the rupee
could push it to near Rs200 a dollar
➢ A $10-20 rise in oil prices for a couple of quarters can
conveniently burn $1-2 billion of our reserves along with a
colossal loss to Pakistan’s purchasing power.
REPUCUSSIONS OF THE CONFLICT
❑ Implications on the European Region:

“Any further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine will have massive consequences and
severe costs” –
Join Statement by European Union Foreign Ministers
"Europe is now closer to war than it has been since the break up of former
Yugoslavia.“ - EU diplomat
➢ Ukraine is considered the “breadbasket of Europe,” and an invasion would result in the food supply
chain getting “hit hard”
➢ Any disruptions to the natural gas supply will in turn affect the production of energy-intensive products
such as fertilizers — and that’s bound to hit agriculture
➢ Russia was the largest supplier of natural gas and oil to the European Union last year
➢ Ukrainian refugees could be forced into EU territory and that destabilization of the country could
destabilize the entire Black Sea region.
“Putting tough sanctions on Russia can also have
consequences for the EU because the economies are linked” -
European Policy Centre
GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS
1. Raising The Stakes In Russia

2. An Open Challenge To The European Order
3. Natural GAS & OIL(Europe relies on Russia for around 35%
of its natural gas, mostly coming through pipelines which cross
Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream 1 which goes
directly to Germany, and others through Ukraine)
4. Looking To MENA(Middle East/North Africa)
For Energy(DEALS WITH QATAR AND UAE)
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
CONFLICT AND THE
THREAT OF
NUCLEAR WAR
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
Minsk I Minsk II
Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the
Ukraine and the Russia-backed Organization for Security and
separatists agreed on a 12-point Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the
ceasefire deal in September 2014. Its leaders of separatist-held regions
provisions included prisoner Donetsk and Luhansk signed a 13-point
exchanges, deliveries of agreement in February 2015. The
leaders of France, Germany, Russia and
humanitarian aid and the withdrawal
Ukraine gathered in Minsk to mark the
of heavy weapons. However, the occasion and issued a declaration of
agreement quickly broke down, with support.
violations by both sides.
“Diplomatic solution to
“Diplomacy over Ukraine Ukraine crisis still possible” –
crisis must ‘intensify” - Tony Blinken
Vladimir Putin (US secretary of State)
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE CONFLICT
NORMANDY FORMAT
❑ In June 2014, German, French, Russian, and
Ukrainian officials met for the first time in a
setting known as the Normandy format.
❑ Having the Russian and Ukrainian leaders

together amid heightened tensions was already
seen as a success.
❑ Two more Normandy format meetings took place

with the four countries' leaders — in Berlin in 2016
and in Paris in 2019.
Bibliography
Bigg, Matthew Mpoke. 2022. “A Timeline of the Tensions between Russia and Ukraine.” The New York Times,
February 18, 2022, sec. World. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine-timeline.html.
“Timeline: How the Ukraine-Russia Crisis Reached the Brink of War.” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/13/timeline-how-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-reached-the-brink-of-war.
Council on Foreign Relations. 2020. “Conflict in Ukraine.” Global Conflict Tracker. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine.
“Causes and Potential Solutions to the Ukraine and Russia Conflict.” 2020. E-International Relations. June 27, 2020. https://www.e-ir.info/2020/06/27/causes-and-potential-solutions-to-the-ukraine-and-russia-
conflict/.
Helfand, Ira. 2022. “Ukraine and the Threat of Nuclear War.” Www.thenation.com. February 8, 2022. https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-russia-nuclear-threat/.
“Ukraine-Russia Crisis: What Is the Minsk Agreement?” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now
“Ten Global Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis.” n.d. ECFR. https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_ten_global_consequences_of_ukraine272/.
Strohecker, Karin. 2022. “How a Russia-Ukraine Conflict Might Hit Global Markets.” Reuters, February 19, 2022, sec. European Markets. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-russia-ukraine-conflict-
might-hit-global-markets-2022-02-19/.
“Evaluating Russia’s Grand Strategy in Ukraine.” 2020. E-International Relations. July 6, 2020. https://www.e-ir.info/2020/07/06/evaluating-russias-grand-strategy-in-ukraine/.
“Russia-Ukraine Conflict May Jolt Pakistan’s Economy.” 2022. The Express Tribune. January 30, 2022. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2341183/russia-ukraine-conflict-may-jolt-pakistans-economy.
Kulakevich, Tatsiana. 2022. “5 Things to Know about Why Russia Might Invade Ukraine – and Why the US Is Involved.” The Conversation. January 21, 2022. https://theconversation.com/5-things-to-know-
about-why-russia-might-invade-ukraine-and-why-the-us-is-involved-175371.
Bibliography
“ANALYSIS - Growing Strategic Competition in Black Sea and Threat of War.” n.d. Www.aa.com.tr. Accessed February 23, 2022. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-growing-
strategic-competition-in-black-sea-and-threat-of-war/2300473.
“The Geostrategic Importance of the Black Sea Region: A Brief History.” n.d. Www.csis.org. https://www.csis.org/analysis/geostrategic-importance-black-sea-region-brief-history.
Masters, Jonathan. 2020. “Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia.” Council on Foreign Relations. February 5, 2020. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-
crossroads-europe-and-russia.
Council on Foreign Relations. 2020. “Conflict in Ukraine.” Global Conflict Tracker. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine.
“Timeline: How the Ukraine-Russia Crisis Reached the Brink of War.” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/13/timeline-how-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-reached-the-
brink-of-war.
Bigg, Matthew Mpoke. 2022. “A Timeline of the Tensions between Russia and Ukraine.” The New York Times, February 18, 2022, sec. World.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine-timeline.html.
“US Secretary of State Says Diplomatic Solution to Ukraine Crisis Still Possible.” 2022. The Guardian. January 7, 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/07/nato-chief-warns-of-
real-risk-of-ukraine-conflict-as-russian-buildup-continues.
Welle (www.dw.com), Deutsche. n.d. “What Is the ‘Normandy Format’ for Resolving the Crisis in Ukraine? | DW | 26.01.2022.” DW.COM. Accessed February 23, 2022.
https://www.dw.com/en/what-is-the-normandy-format-for-resolving-the-crisis-in-ukraine/a-60566531.
“Ukraine-Russia Crisis: What Is the Minsk Agreement?” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now.
“Highlights of Russian President Putin’s Speech.” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/highlights-of-russian-president-putins-speech.
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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Final

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“Welcome to PANACEA INSTITUTE

2014 -2015 Nov 2021

1. Ideological/Cultural Causes: Countries

2. Military/ Strategic Causes

• Black Sea basin holds increasing

2. Military/ Strategic Causes

• Color Revolutions in Russia’s neighborhood(occurred

“If Ukraine was to join NATO it would serve as a direct

• Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014

❑ Implications on the European Region:

1. Raising The Stakes In Russia

❑ Having the Russian and Ukrainian leaders

❑ Two more Normandy format meetings took place

February 18, 2022, sec. World. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine-timeline.html.

“Ukraine-Russia Crisis: What Is the Minsk Agreement?” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now

“Ten Global Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis.” n.d. ECFR. https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_ten_global_consequences_of_ukraine272/.

“Ukraine-Russia Crisis: What Is the Minsk Agreement?” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/what-is-the-minsk-agreement-and-why-is-it-relevant-now.

“Highlights of Russian President Putin’s Speech.” n.d. Www.aljazeera.com. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/highlights-of-russian-president-putins-speech.

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