12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
Insufficient, inequitable and ineffective public spending is a
Introduction
Advocacy for public investment
in children (PIiC) plays a critical
role in ensuring children’s rights
are realised. Budget analysis and
advocacy is an integral pillar under
PIiC in which mobilising adequate,
equitable and efficient spending
in areas such as education, social
welfare mechanisms, effective
institutions helps move children’s
rights from paper to practice.
2
main barrier to the implementation of children’s rights. Thus,
advocacy to realise children’s rights should always include
efforts to influence budgeting decisions. This session explains
the role of public budgets in realising children’s rights, and
how Save the Children can work with children and partners
in order to effectively influence public budgets for the best
of children. It is through government budgets that policies
and commitments to children can be implemented, and
services to children delivered.
Those seeking to influence government budgets should have
a good understanding of the budget cycle; the Public Finance
Management Framework; the macro-economic outlook,
including revenue trends, to determine fiscal space available;
key budget actors, and their interests and influences on the
budgeting process; budget politics; and national development
goals and government priorities in a given period. The aim of
the following chapters is to increase this understanding, and
to enable you to undertake budget analysis for children and
translate the analysis into strategic advocacy that improves
outcomes for children – in short known as child-focused
budget advocacy.
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Learning Outcomes Duration:

for this session 2 hours

Knowledge and understanding
When you have studied this session, you should be able to:
1. Understand and appreciate the added value of engaging with public finance issues, especially
government budgeting processes.
2. Describe the budget cycle, understand budget politics and have knowledge of how you can
influence each stage of the budget cycle towards more and better spending on children.
3. Understand the importance and function of transparency, accountability and civil society and child
participation in budgeting.

Practical and professional skills

You should also be able to develop and implement an advocacy strategy
for influencing budgets, including:
1. Conduct a basic budget analysis and track allocations and expenditure for children.
2. Develop recommendations for short- and long-term budgetary changes to
improve outcomes for children.
3. Engage in strategic advocacy throughout the budget cycle to influence government
policies, budgets and expenditures in favour of children.
3

Why budget
advocacy matters
for children
“States parties shall undertake such
measures to the maximum extent
of their available resources’ means
that States parties are expected to
demonstrate that they have made
every effort to mobilise, allocate
and spend budget resources to
fulfil the economic, social and
cultural rights of all children.”, UN
Committee on the Rights of the
Child, General Comment no. 19
(2016) on public budgeting for
the realisation of children’s rights
(art. 4)
4
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
School buildings and hospitals, teacher and health-
worker salaries, child protection services, social safety
nets, sanitation, roads, streetlights – public budgets are
necessary to finance both the infrastructure, institutions,
General comment No. 19 (2016)
on public budgeting for the
and human resources needed to realise children’s rights. realisation of children’s rights
(art. 4), Committee on the
While legal and normative improvements to child rights
happen outside of the budgets (e.g. through the passing Rights of the Child
of better laws), it is through budgets many of them States parties shall not discriminate
are implemented if governments allocate adequate against any child or category of
resources.1 To put it simply: when every child has the children through resource mobilisation
right to learn and attend school, a government needs or the allocation or execution of
to spend money to train teachers and pay their salaries, public funds. Spending equitably does
to build schools, to develop and make available learning not always mean spending the same
materials, and to ensure children can safely travel to the amount on each child, but rather
schools. For Save the Children, budget advocacy allows making spending decisions that lead to
us to analyse whether a government is doing their job, substantive equality among children.
to call for positive changes in both the short- and long- Resources should be fairly targeted to
term public investments in children, promote equality. States parties are
and finally to hold governments to obliged to remove all discriminatory
account for their promises. barriers that children may face in
accessing their rights.
1 More can be explored around how to link implementation of child/
human rights with resourcing in this publication Realizing Human Rights
Though Government Budgets by OHCHR and IBP, 2017
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

What is a government For example, a national budget can set

out a government’s tax policy, which
budget? can be analysed to assess whether it
a) will allow for the mobilisation of
sufficient revenue to adequately finance
A government budget is a financial and social
public services; and b) is pro-poor and
planning document for a given administrative
redistributive, that is, whether the tax
structure such as district, province, municipality
policy does not disproportionately
or the entire country. It outlines projected public
burden the poorest and whether it
revenue and expenditure,2 and is commonly
helps redistribute income and wealth
passed by the legislature (parliament). It is one of
both across different groups and across
the most important economic policy instruments
geographical areas.
for implementing children’s rights.
A government budget is a reflection of a Government budgets assume different
country’s priorities. It is a good indicator forms, according to a given country’s
of a government’s level of commitment governance model. In general, there
to implementing international and national are two forms of government budgets:
obligations to children and to reduce inequalities central/federal and local (state/county/municipal) government budgets.
in a society. This indication is not only given on Government budgets are further broken down into sectors and sub-sectors
the expenditure side (how much is spent on a such as health, security, education, and environment.
given area), but also on the revenue side.

2 Government revenue refers to all the income of the government from taxes and non-
tax sources. These funds are used for government expenditure. In return government
expenditures is the sum of all spending the government does. More details here.

5
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Search for the approved budget of your country for 2021 and
2022 on the internet or find out how you can get soft or hard
copies from the Treasury or Ministry of Finance.

6
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Structure of The projected revenue section outlines where a

government expects to get the resources it needs to
The projected expenses side of a budget shows
how much and on what a government plans to
government finance its planned activities. In general, governments
finance their activities with money collected from
spend its revenue. The expenses of government are
usually divided into two categories: ongoing running
budgets taxes; excise3 and customs duties; user fees; royalties
and proceeds from state enterprises; overseas
costs (commonly called operational/recurrent/
administration costs), and one-off costs with long-
aid; borrowing/loans and private donations. Local term benefits (commonly called development/
government authorities get their operating revenue programme costs), including capital items such as
A government budget has from a number of sources including user fees, central roads, buildings and equipment. Often there is a
two main sections: government grants, service charges, property tax budget for each ministry, meaning spending for
and rates. Operating revenue is the money mobilised children (and for some sectors) can be spread
by local government to cover its day-to-day running across various ministries according to their areas of
• projected revenue expenses. responsibility.
Understanding how public spending on children is
financed will help you identify any barriers to increased
• projected expenses
allocations to children’s issues. You’ll also be able to
check if financing policy allocations improve rather
than worsen the situation of children and families.
3 Definition of an internal tax on
commodities or licenses and fees:
merriam-webster.com/dictionary/excise

7

Budget deficit and surplus
When drawing up a budget, planned expenditures
sometimes exceed expected revenues. In such cases,
governments incur a budget deficit. The most common
ways of responding to budget deficits is by cutting planned
expenditures, borrowing money or seeking development
assistance from bilateral and multilateral institutions to ‘plug
the gap’. Governments can borrow from banks within
the country or from other governments and
financial institutions such as the World Bank
and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
If expected revenue exceeds planned
expenditure, then the government enjoys
a budget surplus. There are rare
cases when governments have more
money than they need to spend. The
reverse is more frequently the case. If a
government has a budget surplus, it can
increase its reserves, lend to others or
scale up planned expenditure.
8
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
Budget structures
The specific structure of a budget varies from country to country.
Some budgets are significantly broken down while others only show
composite figures, making it difficult to trace allocations that address
children’s needs. A detailed budget helps show how much a government
allocates to budget lines that directly affect children, such as education,
health and child protection.
No government can be sure it is fulfilling children’s rights
to the maximum extent of its available resources
unless it can identify the proportion of its budget
allocated to children. This does not necessarily
mean having a separate budget for children. It
means presenting budget estimates in a way
that allows specific allocations to children to be
identified. However, we can advocate for a child
budget to have clearer visibility and an increased
government focus on spending on children. SC
CRG programmes have successfully done this
in Bangladesh which led to increased awareness
about child rights and the need to put resources
behind these rights.
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

1. Look at your country’s budget, and provide a brief outline of:

• The main structure of the budget

• Whether the budget is in deficit/surplus

2. Give examples of some recurrent budget items (expenditure

or revenue that is planned for every year)

9

Government budgeting
process
Developing a government budget is a technical
and political process that involves many actors.
Budgeting is technical in that it involves a lot of
calculations to quantify anticipated revenue, cost
planned activities and generate realistic estimates
of planned expenditures. It is political in that
fiercely competing priorities and tradeoffs are
made. It is open to a lot of formal and informal
influences, as different actors seek to push their
agendas. This is budget politics.
Budgeting processes are highly contested
by political parties, the private sector, civil
society, the international community and the
government, all with different ideologies, interests
and interpretations of the political economy.
Therefore, to effectively influence government
budgets, civil society organisations need to have a
good grasp of the budget politics at play.
10
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
Ideally, a government budget should be guided
by human rights obligations and informed
by agreed national goals as expressed in the
national development plan or vision document.
And they should have the best interest of
children as a core starting point. The process of
government budgeting – including timelines and
roles and responsibilities – is regulated by the
national constitution as well as the public finance
management policy or budget law. The public
finance management policy also shows how
inclusive and consultative budgeting processes are.
The General Comment No. 19 (2016) on public
budgeting for the realisation of children’s rights
(art. 4) by the Committee on the Rights of the
Child outlines some of the key principles that
should guide public budgeting. These overlap well
in the UNICEF toolkit on public finance (2021).
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

UNICEF toolkit on public finance (2021)

“...UNICEF works to identify and address public financial barriers and opportunities to ensure that public
expenditure on programmes and services for children is:

• Sufficient for implementation of child-related policies, programmes and plans;

• Efficient, to ensure available resources (inputs) are used to achieve the most desirable package of
outputs, with timely disbursement and minimal wastage and leakage;
• Effective, prioritising high-impact value for money interventions and coordinating multisectoral
interventions across government agencies and levels of government;
• Equitable, considering the needs and distribution for disadvantaged areas and populations;
• Transparent and accountable, including through citizen participation and monitoring.”

11
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Look at the approved budget of your country, and identify 1-2 budget
categories (e.g. health, education, social protection, child protection – or a
specific sub-sector such as maternal and child health, pre-primary education,
teacher training) that are key to enable positive outcomes for children/for
your advocacy ambitions, and consider the following:
1. What is your advocacy aim for these budget categories?
2. Who is in charge of these budgetary categories? (Who designs the
budget, who discusses it, who approves it?)
3. Are there other actors to note? (Others who have an interest in
these budget items?)

12
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Budget formulation
Policy direction setting
Line ministries generate estimates and
Medium-term expenditure framework
send them to Ministry of Finance
Pre-budget statement
Ministry of Finance compiles budget
Budget guidelines and ceilings

Ministry of
Government Budget auditing
Finance/ Budget enactment
budget cycle Internal or external Treasury Budget is presented to Parliament
Budget signed into law
audit of the budget

Budget implementation
Spending agencies request
Figure 1: Government money from Treasury to
budget cycle deliver public services

13

Stage 1: Policy
direction setting
Government budgeting starts with the
articulation of national or sub-national
development goals in the national
development plan. To implement this plan,
most governments develop a medium-
term expenditure framework (MTEF),
which shows fiscal policy direction as well as
projected revenues and expenses, usually for
a 3–5-year period.
Every year, the supreme decision-making
body of the executive arm of government
– usually the council of ministers – will
determine overall spending priorities for the
coming financial year. Sector-specific priorities,
however, will be determined by the respective
line ministries, such as the Ministries of
Education, Agriculture and Trade.
During this stage, the Ministry of Finance
14
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
will provide information on the macro-
economic outlook – an overview of the
established, the Ministry of Finance usually
presents a pre-budget statement which
anticipated economic growth, revenues, provides direction on how a government
balance of payments, budget deficit, inflation, plans to raise public resources and to spend
money supply and other factors that may them in a given year. A country’s budget law
have an impact on budgeting. This information determines when the budget statement is
helps you to establish the degree of ‘fiscal presented.
space’, namely the room that a government
has to increase public spending on children’s
issues, without compromising spending in
other sectors or affecting existing financial
commitments.
Based on the macro-economic outlook, the
Ministry of Finance develops budget guidelines
and ceilings, which are then shared with line
ministries, such as health and education, or
other government departments. A budget
guideline is a statement, usually in the form
of a circular, that articulates key government
priorities, timelines and ceilings. A budget
ceiling is the maximum amount that a
particular ministry or department can budget
for in a given period. Before ceilings are

Policy direction setting is essentially about
budget planning. To be effective and relevant,
budget planning should include realistic
assessments of the economic situation and
of the extent to which existing legislation,
policies and programmes sufficiently respect,
protect and fulfil children’s rights. States need
reliable, timely, accessible and comprehensive
disaggregated information and data in reusable
formats on the macroeconomic, budget
and child rights situation, both current and
projected. Such information is fundamental to
creating legislation, policies and programmes
to directly or indirectly target and advance the
rights of children.
CSOs should find ways of influencing the
MTEF, fiscal policy direction and national
spending priorities in favour of children.
It is important to ensure that children’s
issues feature clearly in the national
development plan and MTEF, and that there
is a comprehensive child-specific and costed
plan (which can be sector-focused) to inform
15
budget advocacy. See table at the end of
this section, which gives examples of
advocacy approaches at each stage of
the budget cycle.
The above has outlined the national level
processes, but we would also encourage
you to explore the subnational levels of
budget engagement based on devolution or
decentralisation practices, that entails local
governments to develop their own local plans
and fiscal policies and corresponding budgets.
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
Public spending is critical for putting essential
foundations in place for economies to
develop and societies to thrive – foundations
such as education, health care, protection
from violence and social safety nets. SC
Kenya has engaged in subnational domestic
resource mobilisation and provided guidance
to subnational decision-makers on where to
mobilise more subnational revenue from tax
collection. Check the briefing “Fair Shares –
Fiscal Equity for Children in Kenya” to learn
the impacts that public spending and taxation
are having on child poverty and inequality in
Kenya.

Stage 2: Budget formulation
Guided by ceilings developed by the Ministry of Finance,
individual line ministries and departments will formulate their
budget estimates. The estimates are usually influenced by
available resources; ministerial or departmental priorities as
articulated in their sector plans; expected results; previous
budget outturns; results of costing exercises; and pressure
from those with power and other stakeholders. The estimates
are then submitted to the Ministry
of Finance, which compiles
estimates from all ministries and
departments into a government
budget. In doing so, it is guided
by ceilings and priorities set by
the government. In most cases
ministries submit estimates that
exceed the relevant ceilings. The
Ministry of Finance will then work
with line ministries to cut down
their estimates.
16
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
Stage 3: Budget enactment
After the budget is agreed within the government and ministries,
the Ministry of Finance will present the budget estimates to
parliament. In open democracies this draft budget, called the
executive budget proposal by some governments, is typically
scrutinised by parliamentarians and the public for a given period –
on average one to two months. The budget is then approved by
the entire parliament (potentially with changes) and signed into
law by the head of government.
Here, alliances with parliamentarians
are a strategic way of influencing
budget estimates. This is done, in part,
by analysing how the draft budgets
relate to specific child sector plans and
anticipated results, the MTEF and the
pertinent child rights issues that may
have been raised with line ministries.
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Stage 4: Budget implementation Stage 5: Auditing

Once approved by parliament and signed into law, the budget will Good public finance management requires the auditing of government
be ready for implementation at the beginning of the financial year. budgets. Most governments have a separate audit division for this
During the year, spending agencies will request disbursements from purpose. Unfortunately, in a number of countries, it sometimes takes
the Treasury. These agencies are expected to periodically report more than two years before an audit is conducted. Supreme audit
expenditures to the Ministry of Finance before getting the next institutions play an essential role in the budget process by verifying
disbursement. The Ministry of Finance will then compile quarterly whether public revenue collection and spending takes place in accordance
or half-yearly reports depending on the country’s public finance with the enacted budget. Audits may investigate the efficiency or
management system. At the end of the year, each ministry or effectiveness of expenditures and focus on specific sectors, government
department is expected to produce an annual report. The Ministry structures or cross-cutting issues. Dedicated audits in relation to the
of Finance will compile a consolidated annual budget report for the rights of the child can help governments evaluate and improve spending
government. If this report is not produced or publicly distributed, on children.
this can also be an entry point for our advocacy around budget
transparency.
Ineffective and inefficient public spending might include the supply of
poor quality of goods or services; inadequate financial management
or procurement systems; leakages; untimely transfers; unclear
roles and responsibilities; poor absorptive capacity; weak budget
information systems and corruption. It is the right of citizens to
speak out against such poor uses of public funds.

17
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Possible advocacy methods
around the budget cycle
The most effective way of influencing
government budgets is to use a budget cycle
approach. This entails developing specific
advocacy strategies and messages for each
stage of the budget cycle. Each stage presents
a unique set of opportunities to influence
budget allocations. Many organisations make
the mistake of focusing their advocacy efforts
at the budget enactment stage. This is too late
to make a significant impact on allocations.
Budget advocacy is not a linear process. Like any
other form of advocacy, it should always include:
• research to continuously generate new evidence
on the issue in question
• stakeholder mapping and analysis
• coalition and alliance building
• public education on the specific issue
• clear messages
• offering practical solutions to some of the fiscal
challenges faced by governments
• well-timed actions.

At the heart of child-focused budget advocacy is the need to push specific child rights policy goals up the
spending agenda of governments. It will take both ‘insider’ activities (such as one-on-one meetings, technical
support, training) and ‘outsider’ activities (such as petitions, marches and rallies) to stimulate public debate,
mobilise support and exert pressure on policy and budget makers. CSOs can also use the Child Rights
Reporting Common Approach, UNCRC and Universal Periodic Review reporting as opportunities to highlight
gaps in previous budgets and advocate for more and better spending on children.

18
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Examples of advocacy approaches in various stages of the budget cycle

Policy and direction setting

Stage in the
During this stage, CSOs can influence the MTEF, fiscal policy direction and national spending
budget cycle
priorities in favour of children.

Key budget Council of Ministers/Cabinet

actors to Ministry of Finance
target Advisors to government such as IMF and World Bank
Develop and disseminate policy briefs and reports from child rights impact assessments
showing circumstances of different groups of children (especially vulnerable children)4 to
inform spending priorities
Sharing reports and outcomes from Child Rights Reporting work that documents
implementation gaps of existing legislation as well as legislation on child rights for specific
Possible
groups of children and thematic sectors that is in the best interest of the child
advocacy
Face-to-face formal and informal engagements with budget makers
methods
Identify and use political champions to promote public spending on specific child rights issues
Mobilise international pressure towards specific policy goals by engaging actors such as the
World Bank, IMF and and donors
Organise civil society and educate citizens to participate in budgeting processes
Organise children’s clubs and parliaments as platforms to advocate for child-friendly budgets

4 These assessments should take into account the situation in the past (at least the
last three to five years), present and future (at least the next five to ten years).
19
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Budget formulation
Stage in the
During the budget formulation stage, CSOs should seize various opportunities to try and influence
budget cycle
budget estimates

Key budget Line ministries such as Education, Child Welfare, Health

actors to Ministry of Finance
target Local government
Second experts to assist target ministries in making a case for child-responsive budgeting
Invite line ministries to participate in pre-budget consultations
Face-to-face formal and informal engagements with policy and budget makers, and engage
political parties to advance specific goals
Possible Support costing of specific national strategies on child rights
advocacy Participate in budget working groups or any such similar structures
methods Leverage national and political champions
Assess whether the government is adhering to internationally agreed budget classification
systems – such as functional (sector or subsector), economic (current and capital
expenses), administrative (ministry, department, agency) and programme breakdowns (if
programme-based budgeting is used) – that allow child-focused allocations to be identified.5

5 This calls for budget lines and codes which, at a minimum, disaggregate all planned, enacted, revised and actual expenditures
that directly affect children by: age, gender, geographical area, categories of children most impacted by inequality and
discrimination or in vulnerable situations, source of revenue, and departments, ministries or agencies responsible.

20
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Budget enactment
Stage in the
CSOs can influence parliament to make changes in the budget to improve outcomes for children,
budget cycle
and to to the budget process to improve transparency and opportunities for citizen participation

Key budget Parliament

actors to Ministry of Finance
target Presidency
Invite line ministries to participate in pre- and post-budget consultations/hearings
Participate in parliamentary budget hearings
Conduct budget analysis or sector-plan analysis to assess how the budget responds to child
rights issues, and share findings6
Produce alternative budgets
Possible
Present a critical analysis of the executive budget proposal
advocacy
Make oral and written submissions to the Ministry of Finance and Parliament
methods
Share findings of opinion polls in support of a particular policy goal to implement child
rights
Engage the media
Provide input to parliament on the budget process – Is it timely? Do CSOs have enough
resources and autonomy to scrutinise budgets?

6 We recommend that the analysis is published and used in advocacy events to raise
awareness with the public and government if and when it is foreseen that this will help move
our advocacy for more child rights budget in the future, depending on the context

21
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Stage in the Budget implementation

budget cycle CSOs can monitor the implementation

Key budget
actors to Line ministries
target

Working with line ministries, local government institutions and other

stakeholders to ensure that budget allocations are used for their intended
purposes
Analyzing and engaging with the half-yearly and annual sector reviews (and
Possible
subsequent plans and budgets) to influence expenditure patterns
advocacy
Make use of social accountability tools, such as public expenditure tracking
methods
surveys (PETS), citizen scorecards and community-based public service
monitoring mechanisms to expose bottlenecks and leakages in public spending.
Mobilising the media to share findings from expenditure tracking; and naming
and shaming institutions and officials who have contributed to leakages

22
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Stage in the
Auditing
budget cycle

Key budget
actors to Ministry of Finance
target
Share findings from their budget monitoring and expenditure tracking work to
strengthen the quality of the audit
Oral and written requests for Ministry of Finance to publish audit reports and to
Possible act on the audit recommendations
advocacy Social accountability initiatives
methods Civil society-led evaluations of specific government programmes
CSOs to demand regular and transparent auditing processes
Ensure that advocacy actions related to social accountability are based on the Child
Rights Governance Common Approach on Child Centred Social Accountability

23

Budget transparency
and accountability
In line with good economic governance, budgeting
should take place in an environment of transparency
and accountability. Budget transparency refers to the
inclusiveness and openness of the budgeting system
to public engagement and scrutiny. Transparency
contributes to efficiency and combats corruption and
the mismanagement of public budgets, which in turn
increases the resources available to advance child rights.
Transparency is also a prerequisite for the meaningful
participation of the executive, legislature and civil
society, including children, in the budget process.
CSOs should engage in advocacy aimed at ensuring that
governments actively promote access to information
about public revenues, allocations and spending related
to children, and continuously engage with the legislature
and civil society, including children.
24
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
According to the International Budget Partnership (IBP),
these key budget-cycle-related documents should be
accessible to the public:7
1. Pre-budget statement: an overview of the macro-
economic framework, proposed fiscal measures and key
estimates that informs the annual budget.
2. Executive budget proposal: the draft budget for
the forthcoming year, which is tabled before parliament.
3. Citizen budget: a short, simplified and popular
version of the approved budget.
4. Enacted budget: the approved budget, which
authorises ministries to spend.
5. In-year report and mid-year budget reviews:
quarterly or half-yearly budget reports showing revenues
mobilised, expenditures, debts incurred, etc.
6. Year-End report: a summary of revenues and
expenditures for the past year.
7. Audit report: findings from the audit of the
government budget.
7 IBP, Guide to transparency in Government Budget Reports
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

We recommend that participants check the IBP’s

Open Budget Survey (OBS) which measures the state
of budget transparency, participation and oversight in
countries around the world. The survey produces an
Open Budget Index which scores each country based
on the information it makes available to the public
throughout the budget process. CSOs can use findings
and recommendations from the OBS to advocate for
improved budget transparency and accountability in
their countries.

Budget transparency enhances the integrity of the

budgeting process. Without access to information,
civil society and other stakeholders cannot analyse
budgets. Where budget transparency doesn’t meet
expected standards, civil society should:
• advocate for the enactment of right to information
laws and lobby for increased transparency in public
finance management.
• use other formal and informal ways to get the
information they need to analyse government
budgets.
• network with other agencies.

25
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Child-focused budget analysis

The primary purpose of budget analysis is to use its findings to influence
future fiscal policies and government budgets in order to advance children’s
rights.8 Findings and key recommendations from a budget analysis should
be summarised and presented in a user- and child-friendly form. Policy and
budget makers are usually busy people with little time to read voluminous
reports. So package key findings and advocacy messages from budget
analysis studies into easily digestible forms, such as factsheets, pamphlets,
newspaper articles, videos, full reports and posters.9
Child-friendly budget analysis entails comprehensive assessment of the
processes and impacts of budgets on the realisation of child rights.10 The
primary objective is to ascertain progress, challenges and opportunities
for improving the quality and quantity of public spending on children.
Budget analysis can tell us whether spending on children is increasing or
decreasing, and is adequate or not. It generates the evidence we need to
engage effectively with policy-makers.
8 Muchabaiwa, B.L. (2009) Child Budget Analysis and Advocacy: Handbook
for children and civic society in Zimbabwe, Harare, NANGO.
9 Streak, J. (2003) Monitoring Government Budgets to Advance Child Rights:
A guide for NGOs, Pretoria, IDASA.
10 Tsegaye, S. and Mekonen, Y. (2010) Budgeting for Children in Africa: Concept
and framework analysis, Addis Ababa, African Child Policy Forum

26

A child-focused budget analysis
has different elements, notably:
• analysis of policy and legislative
frameworks
• analysis of budgetary allocations and
spending patterns
• insight into the fiscal space available
to improve public spending on
children
• an assessment of the transparency
and accountability in public spending
• an assessment of the opportunities
for civil society and children to
participate in budgeting processes.
27
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
A government budget is considered child
friendly if, among other things, it:
• contains revenue-generation and/or expenditure
policies that prioritise and support the implementation
of child rights – e.g. if specific child policy goals feature
in the MTEF and the pre-budget statement.
• makes direct and meaningful budgetary allocations
to programmes that directly benefit children, such
as health, education, child protection and social
protection schemes that benefit children.
• creates equal opportunities for both girls and boys,
regardless of where they live, or their religion, race,
ethnicity, etc.
• recognises the children most impacted by inequality
and discrimination from different parts of the country
• is developed and implemented within a transparency
and accountability framework
• is developed and implemented with the participation
and input of relevant stakeholders, including children
according to their evolving capacities
• contains mechanisms for continuously evaluating
efficiency, effectiveness, equity of spending,
sustainability and impacts on children.

Steps in child-focused
budget analysis
There are five steps involved in conducting
a child-focused budget analysis.
Step 1: Decide on the scope and
scale of the analysis
First, determine the overall scope and
scale of the proposed budget analysis.
This is usually informed by the findings of a child
rights situation analysis (CRSA). For example, you
may choose to conduct a budget analysis that focuses
on a thematic sector such as education, or a specific
component of it such as early childhood education.
Alternatively, a budget analysis can focus on a range of
child rights issues, such as safe education, health and
nutrition, protection measures and systems and family
social protection schemes that targets inequity and
supports with the least access to other rights.
28
Step 2: Develop
objectives
Set the specific objectives
of your proposed budget
analysis. Examples of budget analysis
objectives include:
• ascertaining how the MTEF, and fiscal
and other related macro-economic
policies impact on the implementation
of children’s rights
• analysing trends in budgetary
allocations and public spending on
specific child rights to identify progress
and gaps
• assessing transparency, participation
and accountability level in public
spending on children
• ascertaining any structural, equity,
reach, value-chain and other challenges
that may compromise efficiency and
effectiveness in public spending on
children.
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
Step 3: Decide on
specific parameters/
indicators to be
analysed
The key indicators you could decide
to track include the:
• child-friendliness of national
development and fiscal policies
• fiscal space available to invest in
children
• adequacy of budgetary allocations
to specific child rights issues
• efficiency and effectiveness of
spending
• openness of the budgeting process
• level of participation of citizens and
children in budgeting processes.
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Step 4: Decide on research methodology Step 5: Conduct the budget analysis study
The next step is to decide on your data collection A budget analysis study is illustrated in the
methods, research instruments, risks and ethical following table. It can be conducted internally or
considerations, and data analysis and presentation. by contracting the services of other experts. Data
Your research methodology should also articulate how children will triangulation is strongly encouraged to avoid bias. Researchers
be involved in the entire process. Budget analysis studies generally should use the latest data. A good budget analysis also finds
use quantitative research with a few qualitative elements. Data ways of capturing the views and perspectives of children as
is usually presented in tables, graphs, pie charts, histograms, etc. the ultimate end-users of services that the budget is aiming
Qualitative data collection methods are used to measure elements to provide. The findings of budget
that are more subjective, such as transparency, accountability, analysis should be interpreted to
efficiency and participation as well as interdependency between the generate recommendations
previous and current government structures. It is good research to government and other
practice to consider a post-study validation workshop. stakeholders. Always
remember that the
In summary, during this stage, you make decisions on: primary objective of a
budget analysis study
• your overall approach to data collection
is to influence policies
• whether to focus more on budget analysis or expenditure
and budgets.
tracking (would depend on access to budget data)
• data collection tools and techniques
• sampling strategy
• data analysis methods
• data presentation methods.

29
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Examples of indicators that can be tracked in budget analysis

Parameters
National context analysis
to be tracked
Unemployment rate
Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index
GDP Parameters Relevant child
Inflation rate to be tracked development indicators
Examples of Tax to GDP ratio Examples of
indicators to Multi-dimensional poverty index/Poverty Head Count Save the Children Inequality
indicators to
be tracked Gini coefficient (a statistical measure of income distribution) Tracker (GRID)
be tracked
Demographic trends such as population
GRID brings together
Fair finance toolkit
disaggregated data for key
SDG Indicator 1.b.1: Pro-poor public social spending Data
SDG indicators related
SDG indicator 10.4.2 Redistributive impact of fiscal policy collection
to children’s wellbeing,
Time series analysis and analysis
including for child survival
Data Review of official publications and documents methods
and nutrition, child
collection Analysis of the validity of budget assumptions and protection, and education.
and analysis projections
methods Analysis of financial barriers, policy equity and political
economy analysis

30
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Fiscal and related macro-economic

Parameters Parameters
policies, and national development Fiscal space
to be tracked to be tracked
strategies and plans
Existence of supportive policies and Debt sustainability ratio/Debt stock
strategies Budget deficit
Child-friendliness of macro-economic GDP growth
Examples of Examples of
policies, e.g. tax, social spending, debt, aid, Changes in the proportion of domestic
indicators to indicators to
subsidies, privatisation vs nationalisation resources to total available resources
be tracked be tracked
and other related fiscal policies; national Proportion of revenue being collected in
strategies and plans relation to what could possibly be collected
Country credit rating
Data Data
collection Content analysis of policies collection Time series analysis
and analysis Child rights impact assessments and analysis Extrapolations
methods methods

31
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Parameters
to be Budgetary allocations
tracked
Changes in allocations to a specific issue/
ministry or department.
Public spending on a specific thematic issue as a Parameters Budget transparency and
% of total government budget/GDP to be tracked accountability
Per capita spent on a specific issue Public access to key budget documents
Examples of Proportion of ‘development’ vs ‘non- Child-friendliness of key budget
indicators to development’ or recurrent vs capital budget for Examples of documents
be tracked a given year and over time indicators to Existence of functional feedback and
Variance between budgetary allocation be tracked accountability mechanisms
and international commitment, e.g. Abuja Existence of functional budget
Declaration on Health oversight mechanisms
Proportion of aid by a specific agency that goes
Data
to children’s issues Open government survey
collection
Data Independent budget analysis Corruption Perception Index
and analysis
collection Time series analysis Social accountability
methods
and analysis Nominal and real figures analysis
methods Variance analysis

32
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Parameters
Spending patterns
to be tracked
Variance between budgeted amounts and actual budget outturns Parameters Citizens’ participation
Budget turnaround time in relation to policy commitment to be tracked in budgeting
Number of children reached by a specific programme/initiative disaggregated
according to gender, geography, race, etc. Number of children
Proportion of budget that finally reaches children in relation to the original engaged (disaggregated by
Examples of
budget gender, location, race, etc)
indicators to
Per capita spend on a specific issue Existence of formalised
be tracked Equity of spending (e.g. between different areas, if subnational data is available) Examples of
spaces for participation
Cost-effectiveness indicators to
within the executive
Efficiency of spending, including analysis of transaction costs and leakages be tracked
and legislative arms of
Impact of budgets on children
government
Adequacy of allocations (in relation to need)
Openness of participation
Variance analysis
structures to the public
Public expenditure tracking surveys
Cost–benefit analysis Data
Data Focus-group discussions
Evaluation of key government programmes collection
collection Participatory action
Correlation analysis and analysis
and analysis Corruption Perception Index
research
methods
methods Social accountability
Federal/local budget analysis
Costing data

33
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

2.4% budget increase Our contribution 

in education in
Cambodia
In recent years, the Royal Government of
Cambodia has been steadily increasing budget
investment for the Ministry of Education
Youth and Sport (MoEYS). However, the
details of how the budget was determined
were unknown amongst most civil society
actors. In July 2017, the Government
announced that the education budget would
increase between $50-60 million USD for the
2018 school year. The increase focusses on
improving quality across all schools. Moreover,
after discussion in the parliament, the national
budget law was approved and endorsed by
the King with 2.4% equivalence to 238 million
USD increase for education (from 610 million
Save the Children in collaboration
What is the real or potential impact? 
High - The new policy, if implemented, has
with NGO partners conducted an equity the potential to target budgets towards
budget analysis workshop. During and after
this exercise, participants (and particularly
specific geographies where learning outcomes
are weaker. 
those involved in a budget-working group)  
developed a budget database and joint policy Further information: Cambodia Impact Study 
brief on education budget analysis. To further
support the initiative, Save the Children
(through local partners) facilitated dialogue
between children and parliamentarians
to discuss opportunities for an increased
education budget. Save the Children
contributed highly (along with other partners)
to this initiative, particularly through the
provision of technical budget support. While
the budget-working group had been calling
for transparency for a number of years, the
technical advisor was able to support capacity
building and development of the budget

Case study
database. 
USD in 2017 to 848 million USD) 

34
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Answer the following questions:

1. Is the Republic of Dreamland meeting the Abuja commitment of allocating

at least 15% of its total budget to health?
2. What is the proportion of the administration budget to the total Ministry
of Health budget?
3. What is the level of public spending on child nutrition as a percentage of
the total budget?
4. Assuming it costs $8 per child per year to administer a vitamin
supplementation programme, how many children will be reached in the
financial year 2019/20 and how many in 2020/21?
5. What is the increase in government spending
on health between the two financial years?

Table 3 below shows a simplified budget for the Ministry

of Health in the Republic of Dreamland. Let us assume
the total government budget was 15 million for the
financial year 2019/20 and 18 million for 2020/21. There
are 50,000 children who need nutritional support; the
government plans to roll out a programme that will
distribute vitamin supplements to all of them.

35
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Table 3: Simplified Budget for FY 2019/2020 FY 2019/2020 FY 2020/2021

Ministry of Health in Dreamland
Estimates Actual spend $ (unaudited) Estimates
Administration costs
Salaries 850,000 730,000 900,000
Other costs 400,000 390,000 490,000
1,250,000 1,120,000 1,390,000
Development costs
Child immunisation 540,000 369,000 500,000
HIV,TB and malaria 200,000 203,000 210,000
Public health campaigns 2,000 1,700 2,800
Public hospitals 250,000 189,000 255,000
Child nutrition – vitamin
69,000 68,900 71,000
supplementation
Research and development 1,500 1,245 1,500
Hospital equipment 10,600 8,900 10,800
International engagement 500 510 550
1,073,600 842,255 1,051,650
Total 2,323,600 1,962,255 2,441,650

36

Budget and
expenditure
tracking
Budget analysis is sometimes
complemented by budget and expenditure
tracking. Budget tracking entails following
the amounts allocated to specific children’s
issues until they reach the point where
they will be spent. Expenditure tracking
goes beyond tracking amounts allocated
to assess whether budgeted amounts have
been used for their intended purpose and
analyzing where and how the allocated
funds get spent. A public expenditure
tracking survey (PETS) examines the
manner, quantity, timing and quality of
expenditures.11
11 Ramkumar, V. (2008) Our Money – Our Responsibility:
A citizens’ guide to monitoring government expenditures,
Washington, DC, International Budget Partnership.
37
12 Budget Analysis and Tracking
Some of the key questions
investigated in a PETS include:
To conduct a PETS, CSOs need access to
key documents such as contracts, tenders,
• To what extent are actual expenditures licenses, terms of reference for specific
assignments, books of accounts, project
different from the original budget
allocations and why? documents, receipts, payrolls and other
documents on expenditure. In some
• Which children are reached, where and
how? cases, the PETS may require field visits to
project sites. PETS help identify problems
• Are those implementing the budget
operating in compliance with set standards/ in service delivery such as delays, leakages,
discrimination and bureaucratic bottlenecks.
policies?
• Are there leakages or diversions of funds?
If so, how is this happening?
• Are there institutional, policy or
administrative factors that may be affecting
the quality of public spending on children?
• How long does it take for a policy
commitment to become actual
expenditure?
• Are products and services to children
delivered in a transparent, efficient and
cost-effective manner?
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Further resources

Public Investment in Children Common

Approach, Save the Children
Save the Children Sweden and HAQ: Centre

Summary of Session 15 for Child Rights (2010) Budget for Children

This session looked at budget analysis and advocacy as a way of
helping to realise children’s rights. You learnt that a budget is a key
policy tool used by governments to deliver services to children.
Influencing government budgets is both a technical and a political
process. By now you should have:
• a basic understanding of government budgets and of the budget cycle
• a basic knowledge of budget analysis
• awareness of possible advocacy strategies that can be applied
throughout the budget cycle.
Analysis: A beginner’s guide
Addis Ababa Action Agenda
Building resilient health financing in the wake
of Covid-19, Save the Children (2021)
Ending Child Marriage in West Africa:
Enhancing policy implementation and
budgeting, Sierra Leone and Niger, Save the
Children (2020)
Taxation with representation - citizens as
drivers of accountable tax policy, Save the
Children US (2019)

38
 12 Budget Analysis and Tracking

Inspiration
Direct Municipal Investment in Children -
case study from Nicaragua

Acknowledgements
This session was updated and edited in 2022 by Irene Dotterud-Flaa,
Oliver Fiala, Marie Busk Larsen, and Andrew Wainer, with the support of
Almija Kapidzic.
Reviewed by the Editorial Board composed of: Melita Kabashi, Jasminka
Milovanovic, Shaheen Chughtai, Amanuel Mamo, Adem Alo.
This session was originally authored by Bob Muchabaiwa, with input from
Ulrika Soneson Cilliers, Tara Brace-John, Lara Brearley and Jennifer Grant.

39