Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

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Case Studies in Thermal Engineering

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A novelty data mining approach for multi-influence factors on

billet gas consumption in reheating furnace
Biao Lu, Yibo Zhao, Demin Chen *, Jiaqi Li, Kai Tang
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Anhui University of Technology, Ma’anshan, 243032, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: To systematically and quantitatively analyze the influence factors on billet gas consumption
Iron and steel industry (BGC) in reheating furnace, a novelty data mining approach for multi-influence factors BGC
Reheating furnace analysis was proposed in this paper. This multi-influence factors data mining model mainly in­
Billet gas consumption
cludes four steps: Firstly, the BGC apportionment model was established based on energy
Multi-influence factors
Data mining
apportionment model in reheating furnace; Secondly, the BGC data set could be achieved ac­
cording to the division of billet sample space (BSS); Thirdly, the data interpolation calculation
method of various BSS subsets (BSSSs) was put forward; Lastly, the influence degree analysis
method of various factors on BGC was described in detail. Especially, contribution degree model,
which could quantitatively describe the influence degree of each factor on BGC, was established.
Case study showed that working groups (WGs) should be eliminated because of weak influence on
BGC. Then the order of contribution degree on BGC from weak to strong was working shifts (WSs)
(1.61%), residence time (9.7%), loading temperature (88.68%). Therefore, residence time and
loading temperature should be highlighted in all factors. Finally, some measures and suggestions,
which could improve the residence time and loading temperature, were put forward.

1. Introduction

Iron and steel industry, which is the pillar of the manufacturing industry, has considerable potential for energy conservation and
emissions reduction [1,2]. Iron and steel products are widely used in various industries, such as machinery, vehicles, construction, and
transportation etc. [3]. Therefore, the development of iron and steel industry (whether technological innovation or economic oper­
ation) has attracted much attention by many scholars from different countries, such as the United States of America [4], China [5],
Great Britain [6], German [7], India [8], Korean [9] etc. The energy consumption of iron and steel industry has increased greatly with
its rapid development [10,11] (especially in China, as shown in Fig. 1, Mtce, Million ton coal equivalent). From 2008 to 2017, the
energy consumption of iron and steel industry accounts for about 23.4% of the whole industrial energy consumption in China (as
shown in Fig. 2). Accordingly, many energy conservation technologies and method are widely used in iron and steel industry, such as
waste energy recovery [12], material flow balance analysis [13], co-integration method and scenario analysis [14], uncertainty
analysis [15], on-site energy audits method [16], cost analysis of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction [17]. However, a lot more
work is still required about energy saving in iron and steel industries [18].
Reheating furnace, which is used in hot rolling mills to heat billets for the subsequent hot rolling process [19,20], is very important
thermal equipment. At present, the energy consumption of reheating furnace accounts for approximately 15–20% of the total energy

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: cdm780823@163.com (D. Chen).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csite.2021.101080
Received 24 December 2020; Received in revised form 12 May 2021; Accepted 15 May 2021
Available online 27 May 2021
2214-157X/© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

consumption of steel industries and approximately 70% of the rolling process [21,22]. Consequently, the energy saving potential of
reheating furnace should be excavated through various ways, such as improving air/fuel ratio and temperature controls, improved
insulation, air preheating via flue gas heat recovery [23], oxygen enriched combustion [23,24], the application of soft-sensing method
[25] and so on.

2. Literature review

Fuel gas is the main energy form in reheating furnace. Therefore, the research on improvement of the gas utilization efficiency has
been widely carried out by many scholars in reheating furnace. Generally, fuel gas consumption amount is influenced by many factors
in reheating furnace, such as material flow, burner combustion efficiency, waste heat recovery, operation level of workers, the others
(as shown in Fig. 3).

2.1. Material flow

In mill production, billets with different properties are charged into the reheating furnace [26], such as loading temperature,
specification, grade etc. Engineering practice shows that high hot charging ratio is a very effective energy saving measure for reheating
furnace [27]. Zhi Yang et al. [28] has simulated the heating process of billets with different thickness and thermal properties (specific
heat and heat conductivity) to raise productivity, energy efficiency. The results proved that billets with the same properties (such as
loading temperature, grade etc.) should be charged uniformly. Meanwhile, it is conducive to energy saving of reheating furnace.
Generally, the research on energy conservation from the perspective of material flow belongs to the category of scheduling optimi­
zation. Therefore, scheduling optimization, which can realize energy saving, is particularly important in reheating furnace production
process [29,30]. Unfortunately, it is very difficult for that to happen due to influence of market orders.

2.2. Burner combustion efficiency

Combustion process optimization can improve the gas combustion efficiency through the improvement of burner structure, the
optimization of gas supply, air-fuel ratio control or other technical means. For example, Alex M. García et al. [31] presented a nu­
merical simulation of the effects of using self-recuperative burners, which could utilize heat recovery, for a walking-beam reheating
furnace. And a transient radiative slab heating analysis was performed to investigate the effect of various fuel mixtures (Coke Oven Gas
and Blast Furnace Gas) on the performance of an axial-fired reheating furnace [32]. Meanwhile, the approach, which applied oxy-fuel
combustion instead of air-fuel combustion, could enhance efficiency [33]. Practice showed that the more fuel gas and oxygen are
mixed, the higher combustion efficiency would be. Therefore, energy efficiency would be further improved in reheating furnace.

2.3. Waste heat recovery

The temperature of the flue gas leaving the reheating furnace is about 850 ◦ C [34]. Consequently, the waste heat of flue gas has
recovery value. And then, the Organic Ranking Cycle, which has been successfully applied to reheating furnace, is a very effective
technology in waste heat recovery [35,36].

Fig. 1. The crude production and energy consumption of Chinese iron and steel industries over the years.

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

2.4. Energy saving management

The management of reheating furnace is also very significant for energy saving. It is believed that 20% energy saving can be
achieved through management [37]. Biao Lu et al. [38] has put forward a lean energy operation method, which can assess energy
operation level of various working groups, based on energy apportionment model in reheating furnace. Other similar research is
scarce.

2.5. The others

Of course, there are other measures to save energy in reheating furnace. For example, insulation of the furnace, which can reduce
heat loss from furnace wall and roof, is a very important energy saving measure [39,40]. In addition, black-body technology appli­
cation can also achieve certain energy conservation effect in reheating furnace.
These studies have achieved good effect on energy saving in reheating furnace. However, there are still two defects as shown in
follows:

i) Low efficiency of production data utilization

With the rapid development of information technology, a large amount of data, which contains many internal operation rules, has
been accumulated in reheating furnace production process, such as the relationship between billet loading temperature and BGC etc.
Unfortunately, these massive data have not been effectively utilized.

ii) No quantitative analysis method for influence factors on BGC.

The various influence factors on BGC are different, whereas there is no calculation criterion. Therefore, the influence degree of
various factors on BGC can’t be quantitatively analyzed. Furthermore, it is impossible to formulate relevant improvement measures
according to the influence degree.
Therefore, this paper proposes multi-influence factors data mining model on BGC, which can analyze the influence degree of
various factors on BGC, based on massive process data for compensating the above two deficiencies. Moreover, this method can offer
the theoretical evidence for formulation of specific energy saving measures in reheating furnace. Concretely, this method mainly
includes the BGC apportionment model, the BGC data set, the date interpolation calculation, the influence degree analysis of various
factors on BGC. Generally, there are three main contributions of this study.

1) This study provides a practical and efficient means for influence factors analysis on BGC based on the massive data mining
technology in reheating furnace. Meanwhile, the contribution degree of every influence factor on BGC can be identified through
this multi-influence factors data mining model.
2) This multi-influence factors data mining model provides a new solution approach for the effective use of massive production data,
especially in energy efficiency improvement of reheating furnace.
3) This novelty multi-influence factors data mining model can also be further applied to other energy-intensive and intermittent
feeding energy-consuming equipment, such as annealing furnace, continuous casting etc.

Fig. 2. Energy consumption comparison between iron and steel industry and other industries.

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Fig. 3. Research content of energy saving of reheating furnace.
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3. Methodology

3.1. The BGC calculation based on energy apportionment model

The establishment of BGC apportionment model and related variables (as shown in Eq. (1)) have been described in detail in
Ref. [41]. Therefore, it’s not introduced in this paper.
[ ( ni,j
)]
∑f ∑
1
e(i) = ci,j ΔTi,j + ∑ni,j Δ Gj − ck,j mk,j · ΔTk,j (1)
j=1 k=1 mk,j k=1

In which,

e(i): The BGC value of the ith billet, GJ/tons;

f: The number of accumulative time segment (ATS) for the ith billet;
ci,j : The specific heat of the ith billet in jth ATS, GJ/(tons•◦ C);
ΔTi,j : The temperature rising of the ith billet in jth ATS, ◦ C;
ni,j : The number of billet for the ith billet in jth ATS;
Gj : The amount of the gas consumption for the ith billet in jth ATS, GJ;
ck,j , mk,j , ΔTk,j : The specific heat, mass, temperature rising of kth billet for the ith billet in the jth ATS, GJ/(tons•◦ C), tons, ◦ C.

3.2. BGC data set

3.2.1. Influence factors on BGC

It is assumed that there are N influence factors, which are denoted as F(1), F(2), ⋯, F(N), on BGC in reheating furnace, such as
loading temperature, residence time, specification, grade, fuel gas composition, various WGs, various WSs etc.

3.2.2. The division of the BSS

The BSS can be represented by data set in statistical period (as shown in Eq. 2).
B = {b(i)|1 ≤ i ≤ M} (2)
In which,

B: The BSS in statistical period;

b(i): The ith billet, 1 ≤ i ≤ M. M : The number of billets in statistical period;

Furthermore, the BSS can be divided into different BSSSs according to the following rules.

1) The influence factor value range should be divided into some regions. For instances, F(1) can be divided into m1 equidistance
regions according to its value ranges. That is (F1,0 ,F1,1 ],(F1,1 ,F1,2 ],⋯,(F1,m1 − 1 ,F1,m1 ], which can be denoted as k1 = 1, 2,⋯,m1 ; And
F(2) can be divided into m2 equidistance regions according to its value ranges. That is (F2,0 ,F2,1 ],(F2,1 ,F2,2 ],⋯,(F2,m2 − 1 ,F2,m2 ], which
can be denoted as k2 = 1, 2,⋯,m2 ; ⋯; F(N) can be divided into mN equidistance regions according to its value ranges. That is (FN,0 ,
FN,1 ], (FN,1 , FN,2 ], ⋯, (FN,m1 − 1 , FN,mN ], which can be denoted as kN = 1, 2, ⋯, mN .
2) The various BSSSs can be achieved through the combination of different influence factors regions. Then, the r BSSSs will be
achieved through calculation of permutations and combinations, r = C1m1 × C1m2 × ⋯C1mN . For example, the (k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN )th BSSS can
be expressed as Eq. (3).
⎧ ⃒ ⎫
⎨ ⃒1 ≤ i ≤ M ⎬
⃒
B(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ) = b(i)⃒⃒ and 1 ≤ j ≤ N( ] (3)
⎩ ⃒ and F(i, j)v ∈ Fj,kj − 1 , Fj,kj ⎭

In which,

B(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ): The (k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN )th BSSS;

F(i, j)v : The jth influence factor value of the ith billet, 1 ≤ j ≤ N;
kj : 1 ≤ kj ≤ mj .
The division process of BSSSs is shown in Fig. 4.

Meanwhile, the relationship between BSS and BSSSs is shown as follows.

B = B(1, 1, ⋯, 1) ∪ ⋯ ∪ B(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ) ∪ ⋯ ∪ B(m1 , m2 , ⋯, mN )

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φ = B(1, 1, ⋯, 1) ∩ ⋯ ∩ B(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ) ∩ ⋯ ∩ B(m1 , m2 , ⋯, mN )

Accordingly, the BGC value set of the (k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN )th BSSS can expressed as Eq. 4.
⎧ ⃒ ⎫ ⎛ ⎞
⎨ ⃒⃒ 1 ≤ i ≤ M ⎬
E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ) = e(i)⃒⃒ and 1 ≤ j ≤ N( ]⎭
⎝4⎠
⎩ ⃒
and F(i, j)v ∈ Fj,kj − 1 , Fj,kj

In which,

E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ): The BGC value set of the (k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN )th BSSS;

e(i): The ith billet BGC value, which can be calculated by Eq. (1).

Then, the ABGC value of E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ) can be calculated by Eq. 5.

sum(E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ))
ek1 ,k2 ,⋯,kN = (5)
N(E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ))
In which,

ek1 ,k2 ,⋯,kN : The ABGC value of E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN );

sum(E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN )): The sum of all E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN ) elements;
N(E(k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN )): The billet number of the (k1 , k2 , ⋯, kN )th BSSS.

Therefore, the BGC data set can be achieved (as shown in Table 1).

3.3. Data pretreatment

Obviously, the N influence factors on BGC constitute N-dimensional data space. Actually, each element in this data space is the
ABGC value of BSSSs. Unfortunately, it is possible that some BSSSs are empty set after the above data processing. Accordingly, the
ABGC value is also invalid. For convenience, these invalid data should be interpolated. The ABGC value data interpolation process is
shown as follows.

3.3.1. The definition of “Spot” and “Adjacent Spot”

i) “Spot”
In N-dimensional data space, the ABGC of BSSSs is defined as “Spot”.
ii) “Adjacent Spot”
In N-dimensional data space, the ABGC adjacent to a “Spot” is defined as “Adjacent Spot”.

3.3.2. Data interpolation

If the ABGC value of a “Spot” is invalid, the ABGC value of this “Spot” can be calculated by mathematical interpolation method
according to its “Adjacent Spot”. In general, there are four cases between “Spot” and its “Adjacent Spot” (Take 3-dimensional as an

Fig. 4. The division process of BSS.

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

Table 1
BGC data set.
No. F(1) F(2) ⋯ F(N) ABGC

1 F(1)0,1 F(2)0,1 F(N)0,1 e1,1,⋯,1

⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯
k1 × k2 × ⋯ × kN F(1)k1 − 1,k1 F(2)k2 − 1,k2
⋯ F(N)kN − 1,kN
ek1 ,k2 ,⋯,kN
⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯
m1 × m2 × ⋯ × F(1)m1 − 1,m1 F(2)m2 − 1,m2
⋯ F(n)mN − 1,mN
em1 ,m2 ,⋯,mN
mN

Noted: F(1)0,1 : The average value in (Fn,0 , Fn,1 ] for F(1), so do other variables.

example, as shown in Fig. 5).

Fig. 5(a): one “Spot” and six “Adjacent Spot”;
Fig. 5(b): one “Spot” and five “Adjacent Spot”;
Fig. 5(c): one “Spot” and four “Adjacent Spot”;
Fig. 5(d): one “Spot” and three “Adjacent Spot”.
It is assumed that the (k1 , k2 , k3 )th BSSS is empty set, accordingly the ek1 ,k2 ,k3 is invalid. Then, the data interpolation process of this
“Spot” is shown as Eq. (6).

Fig. 5. The relationship between “Spot” and its “Adjacent Spot” in 3-dimensional data space. Note: : “Spot”; : “Adjacent Spot”.

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sum(˝Adjacent Spot˝)
ek1 ,k2 ,k3 = (6)
N(˝Adjacent Spot˝)
In which,

sum(˝Adjacent Spot˝): The sum of all “Adjacent Spot” for ek1 ,k2 ,k3 ;
N(˝Adjacent Spot˝): The billet number of “Adjacent Spot” for ek1 ,k2 ,k3 .

And so are other dimensional data spaces.

3.4. The influence degree analysis of various factors on BGC

The BGC data set in Table 1 has been further perfected after data pretreatment. Then, the influence degree of various factors on BGC
can be analyzed based on this data set. There are three main analysis steps: the selection of influence factors; the ranking of influence
factors; the contribution degree model of BGC.

3.4.1. The selection of influence factors

The significance test has been wildly used to check whether there is any difference between the experimental group and matched
group in linear regression analysis. Therefore, the main influence factors on ABGC can be achieved through significance test.
It is necessary to set the hypothetical condition: there is no significant difference between an influence factor and the ABGC. The
original hypothesis should be rejected, when significant test result of a certain influence factor according with Eq. (7). That is, the
significant difference between this influence factor and the ABGC is obvious. Therefore, this influence factor should be preserved.
Conversely, this influence factor should be eliminated.
p<α (7)
In which,

p: The probability under original hypothesis;

α: The probability of being rejected when original hypothesis is true, it can also be called as significance level (0.05 in general).

The significance test can be achieved through SPSS software.

3.4.2. The ranking of influence factors

The influence degree of various factors (independent variables) on ABGC (dependent variable) can’t be accurately achieved due to
the differences of dimension and magnitude order among various factors. Fortunately, standardized regression coefficients, which
eliminate dimension and magnitude order impacts, can reflect influence degree of various factors on ABGC. The standardized
regression coefficients also can be achieved through SPSS software.
The absolute value of standardized regression coefficient for an influence factor (independent variable) shows that the influence
degree of this factor on ABGC. The greater the absolute value, the stronger influence degree of this factor on ABGC, and vice versa. It is
important to note that symbols of standardized regression coefficients don’t represent the influence degree of the factors on ABGC. If
the symbol is positive, it indicates that the factor has a positive impact on ABGC. Conversely, the factor has a negative impact on ABGC.
Therefore, the influence factors can be arranged in the order from weak to strong through comparing the absolute values of the
normalized regression coefficients for each factor.

3.4.3. The contribution degree model of BGC

The influence degree order of each factor on BGC can be achieved through comparison of standardized regression coefficients.
However, the quantitative influence degree of each factor on BGC is still ambiguous. The fitting degree is a parameter, which can
describe the variation degree of dependent variable caused by independent variables variation. Therefore, fitting degree can be regard
as influence degree of different independent variables to dependent variable. Accordingly, the contribution degree model, which can
quantitatively evaluates influence degree of various factors on BGC, is proposed in this paper based on the fitting degree in linear
regression analysis. It is assumed that there are L(L ≤ N) main influence factors on BGC after significance test (F(1), F(2),⋯,F(L)), order
by influence degree). The fitting degree between F(1), F(2), ⋯, F(L) and the ABGC can be expressed as Eq. (8).
( ∑P ( )2 )
j=1 yj,L − ŷ
(8)
2 j,L
RL = 1 − ∑P ( )2 × 100%
j=1 yj,L − yL

In which,

R2L : The fitting degree between F(1), F(2), ⋯, F(L) and the ABGC, %;
yj,L : The jth observation value of the ABGC, GJ/tons;
th
ŷ
j,L : The i calculation value of the ABGC linear fit, GJ/tons;

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

yL : The average value of the ABGC observation data, GJ/tons;

P: The number of observation value.

Next, the establishment process of the ith influence factor contribution degree model is shown as follows.

i) The fitting degree of i influence factors

The fitting degree of i influence factors (F(1), F(2), ⋯, F(i), i ≤ L) is calculated (as shown in Eq. (9)) according to Eq. (8).
( ∑M ( )2 )
j=1 yj,i − ŷ
(9)
2 j,i
Ri = 1 − ∑ M ( )2 × 100%
j=1 yj,i − yi

ii) The fitting degree of i − 1 influence factors

The fitting degree of i − 1 influence factors (F(1), F(2), ⋯, F(i − 1), i ≤ L) is calculated (as shown in Eq. (10)) according to Eq. (8).
( ∑M ( )2 )
j=1 yj,i− 1 − ŷ
(10)
2 j,i− 1
Ri− 1 = 1 − ∑M ( )2 × 100%
j=1 yj,i− 1 − yi− 1

iii) The fitting degree increment of the ith influence factor

R2i is calculated through adding the ith influence factor based on i − 1 influence factors ((F(1), F(2),⋯,F(i − 1),i ≤ L). Therefore, the
fitting degree increment (R2i − R2i− 1 ) should reflect contribution of the ith influence factor on the ABGC. The contribution ratio to R2L can
reflect contribution degree of the ith influence factor on BGC (as shown in Eq. (11)).

Fig. 6. The flowchart of multi-factors analysis approach on BGC.

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

R2i − R2i− 1
λi = × 100% ​ (11)
R2L
Generally, the multi-factors analysis approach on BGC flowchart is shown in Fig. 6.

4. Case study and results

In this case study, a reheating furnace with length of 53 m is taken as research object in a rolling mill. The production data of this
reheating furnace are analyzed as the basic data sources in June and July 2016.

4.1. Data cleaning

These production data should be cleaned firstly (as shown in follows):

1) The outlier of the data records, which is due to the metering devices damage, aging and other reasons, should be eliminated.
Generally, the characteristics of these data are significantly higher or lower than the normal.
2) Singular characters, which are due to the transmission error of the network data, should be eliminated, too.
3) The billets, whose residence time are larger than 6h, should be eliminated. In general, it belongs to abnormal production state or
stop production state when the billet residence time is larger than 6h.

After data pretreatment processes, the effective samples of this reheating furnace in June and July 2016 are 4565 groups.

4.2. The BGC apportionment value of this reheating furnace

The BGC apportionment value of this reheating furnace can be calculated through Eq. (1) in June and July 2016.

4.3. BGC data set and data pretreatment

Loading temperature (material flow parameter) and residence time (equipment operation condition parameter) have great in­
fluence on BGC [42]. Because of the small fluctuation of gas composition and calorific value, the influence of energy flow on BGC can
be ignored. Additionally, WGs and WSs, which belong to subjective factors, on BGC are also considered. Therefore, four factors
(loading temperature, residence time, WGs, WSs) are selected to analyze the influence on BGC in this paper. And then, the various
BSSSs can be achieved in accordance with the range of these four factors, as shown in Table 2.
Because the residence time of billets is basically concentrated in (3h, 4h] and (4h, 5h] after data collation, the billets with residence
time of Table 3">(0, 3h] and (5h, 6h] can be eliminated. Accordingly, the effective samples of this reheating furnace in June and July
2016 are 3993 groups (nearly 87.5% of the total). The ABGC value of different BSSSs and data interpolation are shown in Table 3.

4.4. Contribution degree analysis

4.4.1. Significance test of various influence factors

The significance test results of four influence factors on BGC can be achieved through multivariate linear regression analysis of
Table 3 (as shown in yellow area of Table 4).
As shown in Table 4, the p value (significance test value) between WGs and the ABGC exceeds 0.05, whereas the p values between
other three influence factors and the ABGC are less than 0.05. Therefore, WSs, loading temperature and residence time have significant
influence on BGC. WGs should be eliminated.

4.4.2. The ranking of influence factors on BGC

Furthermore, multiple linear regression analysis is carried out between three influence factors (WSs, loading temperature and

Table 2
The range of these four factors.
DWGs DWSs DLT(◦ C) DRT(h)

1: A WG; 1: The Day WS; 1: (0,100]; 1: (0,3];

2: B WG; 2: The Swing WS; 2: (100,200]; 2: (3,4];
3: C WG; 3: The Night WS. 3: (200,300]; 3: (4,5];
4: D WG. 4: (300,400]; 4: (5,6].
5: (400,500];
6: (500,600].
Note: DWGs: The Division of WGs; DWSs: The Division of WSs; DLT: The Division of Loading Temperature; DRT: The Division of
Residence Time.

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Table 3
The ABGC value of different BSSSs and data interpolation.
NO. DWGs DWSs DLT DRT The ABGC NO. DWGs DWSs DLT DRT The ABGC
(GJ/tons) (GJ/tons)

1 1 1 1 2 1.48 73 3 1 1 2 1.49
2 1 1 1 3 1.58 74 3 1 1 3 1.58
3 1 1 2 2 1.46 75 3 1 2 2 1.46
4 1 1 2 3 1.44 76 3 1 2 3 1.61
5 1 1 3 2 1.34 77 3 1 3 2 1.33
6 1 1 3 3 1.35 78 3 1 3 3 1.41
7 1 1 4 2 1.30 79 3 1 4 2 1.23
8 1 1 4 3 1.42 80 3 1 4 3 1.38
9 1 1 5 2 1.31 81 3 1 5 2 1.21
10 1 1 5 3 1.37 82 3 1 5 3 1.31
11 1 1 6 2 1.24 83 3 1 6 2 1.11
12 1 1 6 3 1.31 84 3 1 6 3 1.23
13 1 2 1 2 1.46 85 3 2 1 2 1.52
14 1 2 1 3 1.49 86 3 2 1 3 1.55
15 1 2 2 2 1.46 87 3 2 2 2 1.49
16 1 2 2 3 1.42 88 3 2 2 3 1.50
17 1 2 3 2 1.41 89 3 2 3 2 1.41
18 1 2 3 3 1.35 90 3 2 3 3 1.42
19 1 2 4 2 1.30 91 3 2 4 2 1.36
20 1 2 4 3 1.39 92 3 2 4 3 1.36
21 1 2 5 2 1.28 93 3 2 5 2 1.38
22 1 2 5 3 1.33 94 3 2 5 3 1.23
23 1 2 6 2 1.18 95 3 2 6 2 1.14
24 1 2 6 3 1.26 96 3 2 6 3 1.16
25 1 3 1 2 1.42 97 3 3 1 2 1.48
26 1 3 1 3 1.54 98 3 3 1 3 1.57
27 1 3 2 2 1.37 99 3 3 2 2 1.42
28 1 3 2 3 1.49 100 3 3 2 3 1.54
29 1 3 3 2 1.36 101 3 3 3 2 1.37
30 1 3 3 3 1.61 102 3 3 3 3 1.47
31 1 3 4 2 1.31 103 3 3 4 2 1.24
32 1 3 4 3 1.37 104 3 3 4 3 1.42
33 1 3 5 2 1.22 105 3 3 5 2 1.19
34 1 3 5 3 1.37 106 3 3 5 3 1.47
35 1 3 6 2 1.14 107 3 3 6 2 1.11
36 1 3 6 3 1.39 108 3 3 6 3 1.39
37 2 1 1 2 1.53 109 4 1 1 2 1.44
38 2 1 1 3 1.53 110 4 1 1 3 1.49
39 2 1 2 2 1.45 111 4 1 2 2 1.46
40 2 1 2 3 1.49 112 4 1 2 3 1.46
41 2 1 3 2 1.35 113 4 1 3 2 1.37
42 2 1 3 3 1.41 114 4 1 3 3 1.44
43 2 1 4 2 1.35 115 4 1 4 2 1.34
44 2 1 4 3 1.47 116 4 1 4 3 1.36
45 2 1 5 2 1.24 117 4 1 5 2 1.23
46 2 1 5 3 1.37 118 4 1 5 3 1.31
47 2 1 6 2 1.18 119 4 1 6 2 1.21
48 2 1 6 3 1.35 120 4 1 6 3 1.39
49 2 2 1 2 1.55 121 4 2 1 2 1.54
50 2 2 1 3 1.57 122 4 2 1 3 1.54
51 2 2 2 2 1.45 123 4 2 2 2 1.42
52 2 2 2 3 1.41 124 4 2 2 3 1.47
53 2 2 3 2 1.29 125 4 2 3 2 1.39
54 2 2 3 3 1.52 126 4 2 3 3 1.44
55 2 2 4 2 1.27 127 4 2 4 2 1.35
56 2 2 4 3 1.29 128 4 2 4 3 1.37
57 2 2 5 2 1.14 129 4 2 5 2 1.29
58 2 2 5 3 1.22 130 4 2 5 3 1.32
59 2 2 6 2 1.04 131 4 2 6 2 1.24
60 2 2 6 3 1.21 132 4 2 6 3 1.28
61 2 3 1 2 1.56 133 4 3 1 2 1.57
62 2 3 1 3 1.62 134 4 3 1 3 1.58
63 2 3 2 2 1.75 135 4 3 2 2 1.43
64 2 3 2 3 1.67 136 4 3 2 3 1.48
65 2 3 3 2 1.49 137 4 3 3 2 1.41
66 2 3 3 3 1.44 138 4 3 3 3 1.43
67 2 3 4 2 1.37 139 4 3 4 2 1.39
(continued on next page)

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

Table 3 (continued )
NO. DWGs DWSs DLT DRT The ABGC NO. DWGs DWSs DLT DRT The ABGC
(GJ/tons) (GJ/tons)

68 2 3 4 3 1.37 140 4 3 4 3 1.40

69 2 3 5 2 1.36 141 4 3 5 2 1.31
70 2 3 5 3 1.39 142 4 3 5 3 1.33
71 2 3 6 2 1.32 143 4 3 6 2 1.23
72 2 3 6 3 1.33 144 4 3 6 3 1.27

Note: The yellow area is the interpolated data in Table 3 according to Eq. 6.

residence time) and the ABGC (as shown in Table 5).

The influence degree of three factors on BGC is ranked according to the standardized regression coefficients (absolute values) (as
shown in Table 5). Then, the order of influence degree from weak to strong: WSs (F(1)), residence time (F(2)), loading temperature
(F(3)). Especially, loading temperature has negative impact on BGC; others have positive impact on BGC.

4.4.3. Contribution degree of various influence factors on BGC

The linear fitting degree of different influence factors are shown in Table 6.
As shown in Table 6, the fitting degree of three influence factors and ABGC is 74.2%. Therefore, the ABGC can represent most of the
information by the linear fitting expression of these three influence factors.
Then, the contribution degree of three influence factors on BGC can be calculated in accordance with Table 6 and Eq. (11) (as
shown in Table 7).
As shown in Table 7, the contribution degrees of three influence factors on BGC are 1.61%,9.7%,88.68% in this reheating furnace
respectively. Accordingly, loading temperature has the greatest impact on BGC among three influence factors. In consideration of
negative impact of loading temperature on BGC, increasing loading temperature has important significance to reduce BGC. In addition,
residence time also has a very important impact on BGC. The decrease of billets residence time is meaningful for reducing BGC. The
contribution degree of WSs on BGC is relatively small. Due to the positive impact of WSs on BGC, the Day WS is conducive to reducing
BGC, next is the Swing WS, the last is the Night WS. This is principally because that the employees have been much more energetic in
the Day WS. The Swing WS and the Night WS are rather tiring for the employees. Therefore, strengthening the Swing WS and the Night
WS management is conducive to energy saving of reheating furnace.

4.5. Discussion

Actually, exiting literatures have ignored contribution degree of various influence factors on BGC in reheating furnace. It is
generally accepted that the hot charge of the slab (hot charge (>500 ◦ C), warm charge (300◦ C–500 ◦ C) and cold charge (<300 ◦ C) in
general) to the furnace is as effective as the efficiency that would be obtained from the fuel on the overall furnace energy consumption
[43,44]. However, it is ambiguous whether the loading temperature is the most effective energy-saving measure for all reheating
furnaces. Furthermore, Wenchao Ji has analyzed that the effects of productivity, fuel consumption and slab hot charging temperature
on total heat exchange factor [45]. Sang Heon Han and S. Zanoni have explored the most effective scheduling from the five cases of
residence time [46,47]. These researches are still to increase energy efficiency of reheating furnace through improving one or several
influence factors. Unfortunately, it is not clear why these factors are proposed. The choices of influence factors are largely due to
technicians’ experience.
Concretely, the influence factors and their contribution degree on BGC are different for various reheating furnace. Therefore, a
general method should be put forward to solve how to determine the influence factors on BGC for specific reheating furnace. Then,
some detailed energy efficiency improvement measures can be developed. Subsequently, multi-influence factors on BGC data mining
method, which aims to fill the research gaps, has been put forward in this paper. Moreover, this method can offer the theoretical
evidence for formulation of specific energy saving measures in reheating furnace.
As previously mentioned, the contribution degree of loading temperature has reached 88.68% through the multi-influence factors

Table 4
Multivariate linear regression analysis between the four influence factors and the ABGC.
Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. Correlations

B Std. Error Beta Zero-order Partial Part

1 (Constant) 1.387 .034 40.430 .000

WGs .002 .005 .014 .331 .741 .014 .028 .014
WSs .017 .007 .109 2.530 .013 .109 .210 .109
loading temperature -.059 .003 -.811 -18.836 .000 -.811 -.848 -.811
residence time .067 .011 .269 6.250 .000 .269 .468 .269

Note: The results of significance test are shown in yellow area.

a
Dependent Variable: The ABGC.

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

Table 5
Multivariate linear regression analysis between the three influence factors and the ABGC (p < 0.05).
Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. Correlations

B Std. Error Beta Zero-order Partial Part

1 (Constant) 1.391 .032 43.393 .000

WS .017 .007 .109 2.539 .012 .109 .210 .109
loading temperature -.059 .003 -.811 -18.896 .000 -.811 -.848 -.811
residence time .067 .011 .269 6.270 .000 .269 .468 .269

Note: The standardized regression coefficients are shown in yellow area.

a
Dependent Variable: The ABGC.

Table 6
Linear fitting degree between different influence factors and the ABGC.
NO. Influence factors R2i (%)

1 WS (F(1)) 1.2
2 WSs (F(1)), residence time (F(2)) 8.4
3 WSs (F(1)), residence time (F(2)), loading temperature (F(3)) 74.2

Table 7
The contribution degree of three influence factors on BGC.
NO. ΔR2i Contribution degree (%) +/−

1 WSs (F(1)) 1.2 1.61 +

2 residence time (F(2)) 7.2 9.7 +
3 loading temperature (F(3)) 65.8 88.68 –
4 Total 74.2 100

Note: +/− represent positive impact/negative impact, and it corresponds to the symbol of standardized regression coefficients in Table 5.

method for case reheating furnace, follow by residence time (9.7%). It is illustrated that the improvement of hot charging rate is the
most effective energy saving measure for case reheating furnace, which is consistent with the traditional understanding [43–45].
Consequently, the validity of multi-influence factors method has also been verified. Yet, if the energy efficiency of reheating furnace is
expected to be further promoted after improving hot charging rate and residence time, the traditional experience will appear unable to
cope. The multi-influence factors method, which has been proposed in this paper, can still be effectively analyzed. Then, some targeted
energy conservation policies can be formulated based on the contribution degree of various influence factors.
In terms of case reheating furnace, loading temperature and residence time should be emphasized. Equipment operation condition
and billet transportation condition are the main factor, which affects the hot charging and warm charging. Meanwhile, equipment
operation condition is also the main factor, which affects residence time of billets. Therefore, the analysis of equipment operation
condition and billet transportation condition on loading temperature and residence time has been shown as follows.

4.5.1. Equipment operation condition

Equipment operation condition mainly refers whether the reheating furnace run smoothly in the production process. Because iron
and steel enterprise belong to the typical process industry. That is, the various production equipments form different series and parallel
relationship in production system. The operation condition of production equipment affects each other in this complex series and
parallel relationship. Therefore, the factors, which affect the reheating furnace operation condition, mainly include: the reheating
furnace (Research object) operation condition, other reheating furnace (Non research object) operation condition, up-stream equip­
ment (continuous caster) operation condition, down-stream equipment (rolling mill) operation condition (as shown in Fig. 7).

4.6. The reheating furnace (research object) operation condition

Equipment failure and Overhaul are the main reason for the poor production of reheating furnace.
Equipment failure mainly refers that production equipment is unable to complete normal production due to some reason. It is
characteristic of suddenness. For the reheating furnace, the gas supply is unstable; the cooling water leaks; the motor stops running and
so on. Then, residence time of billets will be prolonged. Meanwhile, loading temperature of billets gradually decreased because of
unable loading. According to the severity of the equipment failure, the decrease degree of billet temperature is various due to different
maintenance time.
Overhaul is the regular repair or replacement of equipment after the disintegration of all or most of the components. And then, the

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

whole production process will be discontinued; it is characterized by a longer duration.

2) Other reheating furnace (Non research object) operation condition

Reheating furnace (Research object) and other reheating furnaces (Non research object) belong to parallel production relationships
(as shown in Fig. 7). Therefore, the equipment failure and overhaul of other reheating furnaces will also affect the reheating furnace
operation condition. If a reheating furnace (Non research object) fails or overhauls, the production capacity of all reheating furnaces
will decreases. Many billets can’t be loading in time, and the temperature of billets will drop. In this case, the residence time of billets
will also fluctuate greatly.

4.7. Up-stream equipment (continuous caster) operation condition

Continuous caster is the up-stream equipment of reheating furnace (as shown in Fig. 7). That is, continuous caster and reheating
furnace constitute a series production relationship. If continuous caster fails or overhauls, the raw material supply of reheating furnace
will be affected. In order to ensure continuity of reheating furnace production, its production speed will be reduced. Consequently, the
residence time of billets in reheating furnace will be prolonged, which is not conductive to energy conservation of reheating furnace.

4.8. Down-stream equipment (rolling mill) operation condition

The down-stream equipment of the reheating furnace is rolling mill (as shown in Fig. 7). That is, rolling mill and reheating furnace
constitute a series production relationship. If rolling mill fails or overhauls, rolling mill will also reduce the demand for reheating
products. The reduction of reheating furnace production speed has also been adopted. Therefore, the residence time of billets is also
prolonged. Moreover, the billets, which are transported from continuous caster, can’t be loaded. And then, the loading temperature of
these billets will decrease gradually.
Generally, the equipment operation condition has a very important influence on the loading temperature and residence time.
Therefore, the normal operation condition of production equipment is the basic guarantee for energy conservation. In order to

Fig. 7. The serial and parallel relationship among production equipments.

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

maintain the normal operation condition, the following work should be executed.

a) Daily inspection system should be established. And all production equipment (especially focal equipment) should be inspected
regularly.
b) Production process parameters (especially the parameters that can reflect the equipment operation condition) should be real-time
monitored, such as temperature, furnace pressure, energy flow rate, voltage etc.
c) Emergency equipment failure handling plan should be formulated. If the failure occurs, the standard procedure should be executed
immediately according to this handling plan.
d) The worker should be regularly trained to enhance their professional skills.

4.8.1. Billet transportation condition

Reducing the heat loss in conveying process is a very important technical means to improve the billet loading temperature of
reheating furnace. In order to reduce the heat loss in the transportation process from continuous casting area to reheating furnace area,
insulated van (truck or railway), which is a transport equipment with thermal insulation enclosure, has been used frequently. Addi­
tionally, thermal insulation pits are also used as temporary buffering devices for high temperature billets when production equipment
operation condition changes or production plan adjusts. Practice proves that the application of heat preservation equipment is great
significance to improvement of the productivity and energy saving in reheating furnace [48,49].

5. Practical and policy implications of this study

A case shows that if the BGC of reheating furnace is reduced by 0.1 GJ/t, the cost can be saved about RMB 6 million per year (annual
production is 1.5 million tons) [50]. Therefore, it is very important that reduction of BGC is of great significance to save the products
cost in reheating furnace under the premise of the billet heating quality. However, the individual differences of BGC should be taken
into account for a specific reheating furnace when energy conservation measures and strategies are developed. In other words, the
individual differences of BGC are very obvious for each reheating furnace. If the BGC characteristics of a specific reheating furnace can
be analyzed, some targeted energy saving policies will be proposed. Then, it will make the energy conservation work of this reheating
furnace get twice the result with half the effort.
As mentioned earlier, the validity of multi-influence factors method, which is put forward in this paper, has been verified in the
importance ranking of BGC influence factors. It is worthy of further reference for energy saving working of reheating furnace.
Furthermore, if the application effect of the multi-influence factors method is to be fully exerted, the following points should be paid
close attention:

1) The BGC influence factors diversity of reheating furnace

As we all know, there are many factors that affect the BGC of reheating furnace. How to find out these influence factors is as difficult
problem. Classification enumerate is a very effective method. In general, these influence factors can be divided into four categories:
material flow, energy flow, equipment status, others. Material flow mainly includes loading temperature, residence time etc. energy
flow mainly includes gas flow, gas calorific value, fuel gas composition etc. equipment status mainly include pressure in reheating
furnace, flue gas composition etc. Others mainly include various WGs or WSs etc.

2) Production process data collection and storage of influence factors

The production process data has the characteristics of large quantity and low value density. Therefore, the implied law is easy to be
ignored. The multi-influence factors method, which is proposed in this paper, has been established based on reheating furnace
technological process and data mining algorithm. Consequently, this method has a strong dependence on the quantity and quality of
production process data.
Fortunately, with the deepening of the industrialization process, a large number of measuring devices and computer network
technology are constantly applied. Therefore, it is very convenient to collect and store the production process data. Accordingly, the
production process data, which affect BGC of reheating furnace, should be paid attention to. Then, the multi-influence factors method
will play a better application effect.

5.1. Energy saving consciousness of management

The contribution degree of WSs has reached 1.61% in previous analysis. Practice has showed that various WSs will have different
effects on employees’ emotions. Then, their fuel gas operation level will also be affected [51]. Therefore, the energy conservation
consciousness of management should be strengthened.

6. Conclusion

The multi-influence factors data mining model, which could systematically and quantitatively analyze the influence degree of

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B. Lu et al. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering 26 (2021) 101080

various factors on BGC in reheating furnace, was proposed in this paper. On the whole, the following conclusions could be concluded.

1) The multi-influence factors data mining model on BGC based on data mining was put forward in this paper. This multi-influence
factors data mining model mainly includes four steps. Firstly, the BGC apportionment model could be calculated founded on energy
apportionment model in reheating furnace. Secondly, The BGC data set should be achieved according to the division of BSS.
Thirdly, the ABGC value of BSSSs should be interpolated due to data integrity requirements. Lastly, the influence degree analysis
model of various factors on BGC was established. Especially, contribution degree model, which could quantitatively describe the
influence degree of each factor on BGC, was established. Through this multi-influence factors data mining model, the key influence
factors on BGC could be found. Then, the energy saving effect of reheating furnace could be greatly enhanced by improvement of
these key influence factors.
2) This multi-influence factors data mining model had been successfully applied to a reheating furnace. Several influence factors
(WGs, WSs, residence time, loading temperature) were selected as research object. Case study showed that WGs factor can be
eliminated because it had a weak impact on BGC. The order of contribution degree on BGC from weak to strong: WSs (1.61%),
residence time (9.7%), loading temperature (88.68%). Therefore, residence time and loading temperature were focal influence
factors on BGC.
3) Residence time and loading temperature were furtherly analyzed in this paper. Some improvement of measures and suggestions
were put forward, such as the improvement of equipment operation condition and billet transportation condition and so on.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NO.51804002) and by the National Key Research and
Development Program (Project NO.2020YFB1711101). The authors gratefully acknowledge the reviewers and editors for their fruitful
comments.

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