MEMORANDUM

TO: Mark Wilson

FROM: John Sowinski
DATE: April 3, 2023
SUBJECT: New Polling Numbers and Analysis: Florida’s RecreaKonal Marijuana IniKaKve

As a follow-up to our discussions about Florida’s future, I’m sending you informaKon on research we
recently commissioned which included a survey of Florida voters on the proposed consKtuKonal
amendment that would legalize recreaKonal marijuana in Florida. As you know, the marijuana
industry sponsoring the amendment has poured more than $30 million into a paid signature
operaKon that has gathered 635,961 cerKfied signatures of the 891,589 required for ballot
placement. The amendment is awaiKng review by the Florida Supreme Court.

Our firm has unparalleled experKse passing and defeaKng consKtuKonal amendments in Florida,
specializing in this unique brand of poliKcs for more than 30 years and with nearly twenty statewide
amendment victories. ConsKtuKonal Amendment campaigns differ from candidate campaigns in that
all things remaining equal, proposed amendments tend to lose support as more is known about them,
and as voters become more cauKous as elecKon day draws near. For this reason, we never advise a
client to move forward with an amendment campaign if the early polling on the issue is not at least 8
to 10 percentage points above the margin of passage. Since the margin of passage in Florida is 60%,
that means “Vote Yes” campaigns should start with 68% to 70% of voters favoring passage to allow for
an acceptable “comfort margin.”

You will recall that in 2014 when the medical marijuana amendment was first on the ballot the public
polling showed public support for the amendment approaching 80%, but we had the resources to run
a focused campaign that drove support down by some 20 percentage points and defeated the
amendment once thought to be unbeatable.

The method of determining level of support is most criKcal. The best and most reliable pracKce for
polling a proposed ballot quesKon is to ask the actual ballot quesKon in the survey. That way the
voters see or hear the actual language they will see in the ballot box. Polls that ask the “general idea”
rather than the actual language are less reliable.

With this in mind, our firm commissioned Mason-Dixon to poll the actual ballot quesKon in a
statewide survey of 625 Florida voters with a margin of error of not more than ± 4 percentage points.
That survey found support at an anemic 50%, with opposiKon at 45%. As important, the intensity of
supporters and opponents was within the margin of error, with 37% saying they “strongly support”
the amendment and 34% saying they “strongly oppose” the amendment.

The amendment failed to reach the margin of passage (and therefore fell well short of the comfort
margin) in every region of Florida, and among every demographic cohort, including poliKcal affiliaKon,
gender, ethnicity and with voters under 50, and those 50 and up.
 PAGE TWO

Why an amendment that was presumed to have strong support appears to be on life support is a
subject for our next phase of research. One can assume that part of this slippage is ajributable to
voters having seen with their own eyes that recreaKonal marijuana legalizaKon in other states has
failed the proof-of-concept test, with a clear sense that the bad is out-weighing any perceived good.
The recent trouncing of a recreaKonal pot legalizaKon measure in Oklahoma (with only 39% voKng
yes in a state, like Florida, that had previously approved medical marijuana) and the fact that pot
legalizaKon has failed in four of the last six states where it has been on the ballot are strong
indicaKons that pot legalizaKon advocates have lost momentum and may well have hit a brick wall.

This polling data and recent defeats of pot legalizaKon measures in states that only require a simple
majority for passage demonstrate that there is the potenKal for this situaKon to be similar to our
2010 campaign against “Hometown Democracy” which early polling had the amendment in the 70’s,
with many people asking us “why bother, it can’t be beat?” At the end of a very disciplined and
successful campaign which we fought together, that amendment, which many thought to be
unbeatable, got only 33% of the vote. The bojom line is that this survey proves the vulnerability of
this amendment to a well-disciplined, well-resourced campaign.

The bajle is far from over, and with the marijuana industry on track to spend $50 million on the
signature gathering phase of the campaign alone, we can only assume that they will spend another
$50 million or exponenKally more to ajempt to win voter approval.

What these numbers tell us is that the marijuana industry has an uphill bajle if we secure the
resources needed to put our message before voters. Their burden is to persuade voters to do
something they are not inclined to do. Our burden is merely to remind voters why they feel the way
they do about this bad amendment. In a state the size of Florida, that will require significant
resources, but not the same order of magnitude that the proponents will likely spend.

I look forward to a full discussion at our upcoming meeKng. Meanwhile, feel free to contact me if you
have any further quesKons.
 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida
from March 27 through March 30, 2023. A total of 625 registered Florida voters were
interviewed live by telephone statewide.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter

registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were
assigned to reflect voter registration by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no

more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that
the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin
for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – March 2023 Florida Poll
QUESTION: Sometimes, the Florida ballot will include proposed amendments to Florida’s
Constitution for voters to decide. One amendment that might appear on the next statewide ballot in
Florida is titled “Adult Personal Use of Marijuana”. It’s summary says that it allows adults 21 years
or older to possess, purchase, or use marijuana products and marijuana accessories for non-medical
personal consumption by smoking, ingestion, or otherwise; allows Medical Marijuana Treatment
Centers, and other state licensed entities, to acquire, cultivate, process, manufacture, sell, and
distribute such products and accessories. Applies to Florida law; does not change or immunize
violations of federal law. Establishes possession limits for personal use. Allows consistent
legislation, defines terms and provides an effective date.

If the election were held today, would you vote YES to approve this amendment, or NO to reject it?
(IF YES or NO) Is that strongly YES/NO or somewhat YES/NO?

ST “YES” SW “YES” SW “NO” ST “NO” UNDECIDED

STATE 37% 13% 11% 34% 5%

REGION ST “YES” SW “YES” SW “NO” ST “NO” UNDECIDED

North Florida 39% 9% 6% 39% 7%

Central Florida 32% 18% 10% 37% 3%
Tampa Bay 43% 14% 9% 28% 6%
Southwest Florida 31% 11% 18% 39% 1%
Southeast Florida 36% 13% 13% 31% 7%

SEX ST “YES” SW “YES” SW “NO” ST “NO” UNDECIDED

Men 34% 13% 10% 36% 7%

Women 39% 14% 11% 32% 4%

AGE ST “YES” SW “YES” SW “NO” ST “NO” UNDECIDED

<50 41% 15% 12% 26% 6%

50+ 33% 13% 9% 40% 5%

RACE ST “YES” SW “YES” SW “NO” ST “NO” UNDECIDED

White 38% 13% 12% 32% 5%

Black 26% 11% 11% 43% 9%
Hispanic 39% 19% 6% 35% 1%

PARTY REGISTRATION ST “YES” SW “YES” SW “NO” ST “NO” UNDECIDED

Democrat 38% 20% 14% 22% 6%

Republican 34% 7% 8% 48% 3%
Independent 39% 13% 10% 30% 8%

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – March 2023 Florida Poll
 DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY REGISTRATION:

Democrat 225 (36%)

Republican 250 (40%)
Independent or Other 150 (24%)

AGE:
18-34 99 (16%)
35-49 165 (26%)
50-64 169 (27%)
65+ 188 (30%)
Refused 4 (1%)

RACE/ETHNICITY:
White/Caucasian 421 (67%)
Black/African American 80 (13%)
Hispanic or Cuban 107 (17%)
Other 11 (2%)
Refused 6 (1%)

GENDER ID:
Male 297 (48%)
Female 325 (52%)
Other 3

REGION:
North Florida 120 (19%)
Central Florida 135 (22%)
Tampa Bay 115 (18%)
Southwest Florida 75 (12%)
Southeast Florida 180 (29%)

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – March 2023 Florida Poll
 FLORIDA POLL REGIONS

NORTH FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Bay,

Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Walton, Washington, Holmes, Jackson, Gadsden,
Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker,
Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, St, Johns, Flagler, Union,
Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist and Levy counties.

CENTRAL FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Brevard, Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola,

Seminole, Citrus, Sumter, Volusia, and Indian River counties.

TAMPA BAY: Voters interviewed in Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and

Polk counties.

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry,

Highlands, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties.

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA: Voters interviewed in Okeechobee, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm

Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

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Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – March 2023 Florida Poll