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Stages of Conflict

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 Stages of Conflict
By
Adenyi Theophilus Okechukwu
Department of Political Science (Peace Conflicts and Strategic Studies).
University of Nigeria Nsukka
theophilus.adenyi.pg00476@unn.edu.ng +2348162797481

Every conflict all over the world develops in stages and escalates in phases and magnitude. What this

indicates is that conflict transits from one stage to another. Different scholars and authors have

written exhaustively/extensively on stages of conflict as well as its phases and cycles. The identifiable

difference is in the nomenclature given to some of the phases or stages, that apart, the explanations

are the same. Stage of conflict in this paper is discussed under the following subheadings:

1. Development or Evolution Stage:

Conflicts do not occur in a flash; before conflict erupts there must be an object of divergence,

disagreement, and differences. Just like life develops the moment spermatozoa fertilizes an ovum,

conflict develops from one stage to another. At this stage which is the development stage or

evolution stage, whatever that will cause conflict to happen starts from here.

At this stage, there must be a disagreement or difference over one thing or the other which may be

tangible or intangible and when this happens, conflict starts to develop. During this stage both the

shadow and interested parties do not begin to take sides because the issue in disagreement could

be resolved immediately by the two sides or they may come together and take a common position

to bury their differences. For example if two people from two different communities or ethnic

group engage in a fight over any tangible or intangible thing, people around them will make every

effort to separate them and in most cases caution them. At that point, the disputants will bury their

1
differences and continue to be friendly but if such settlement is not effected or accepted by two of

them, it is likely that they will go home and alert their respective communities or group on what

the other person did with some fabrications and concocted stories to stimulate the emotion of his

or her community or group.

` The leaders of the two communities or ethnic group or one of them may initiate or organize

immediate settlement meeting by inviting the other party, his community or group for peace talk

so as to effect settlement and resolution of the underlying cause of the issues between their

kinsmen. The two men or one of them may be reprimanded or blamed by the people or peace

makers, even their groups and respective communities will join in scolding the aggressor among

the two men. But if one of the communities or group decides to protect and defend their own

kinsman, it is likely that the minor quarrel may degenerate into another more serious stage. The

development stage is the best time to prevent conflict because at that stage there is no committing

of resources, energies or time by any group or parties. Any failure to resolve the conflict at that

stage as the saying goes “Prevention is better than cure” will lead to enemy formation stage.

2. Enemy Formation Stage.

This is the stage in which the minor problem that developed at the development or evolution stage

will degenerate into enemy formation stage.

At this stage the two parties or groups or communities as described in the former stage will start

to see each other as enemies. During this stage, propaganda is spread, facts are distorted, past

history is remembered, and leaders start to indoctrinate their followers so as to win their support

and cooperation. It is at this stage that parties or disputants begin to show or demonstrate why the

2
other side should be engaged squarely. It could happen at both inter-personal, inter-group and at

international level.

At this stage also, parties and their allies begin to identify themselves as “we and them as well as

in-group and out-group. An Intervention by an “Insider Partial” or a charismatic leader or leader

in position of authority respected by both parties may prevent the conflict from further

intensifying or degenerating.

3. Mobilization /Preparation Stage.

This is the stage of “gathering storm”. It is the stage that determines whether the parties will slug

it out with each other or not as well as on the approach to adopt in pursuit of their position, need

and interest. At the same time parties mobilize and take stock of resources available that will

empower them to further pursue their interest and position.

At the international arena, and in conflict among states or among nations, it is at this stage that

parties begin to take stock, stripe and assemble their military arsenal, as well as evaluate the

readiness of their armies in case the conflict becomes confrontational. It is at this stage that either

parties spy each other in order to gather intelligence about their mobilization/ preparation. It is the

stage of power politics because parties usually try to maintain balance of power through alliances.

Even at the inter-personal level, before persons or individuals decide to confront each other

squarely, he or she must endeavor to lure some people within their environment so as to gain their

support.

However further escalation could be averted with the timely use of early warning signals by

authorities concerned. At the international level, leaders and heads of national governments during

this stage, seek the support of both their cabinet and legislatures so as to execute the impending

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confrontation. At the communal level, youths are mobilized, deities and oracles consulted, forts

are built while several types of rituals are made.

4. Pre-emption Stage.

At this stage the possibility of a party or parties launching an attack against the other becomes

inevitable. Any party that wishes to confront the other violently will at this stage launch a pre-

emptive attack so as to know the reaction of the other party. If the issue in dispute is resources like

land the aggressive party may resort to occupation, trespass and seizure of the land etc so as to

provoke the other party. This is equally the stage that incontrovertible evidence of impending

hostility, confrontation and fighting is established. The party on whom the pre-emptive attack had

been launched against may retaliate and this leads to a full blown arm confrontation or war, such

party depending on the issue in dispute may take the matter to litigation at the law court or

complain to a higher authority for intervention.

In international conflict, this is the stage that the party whom the pre-emptive attack is launched

against may take their case to the United Nation Security Council or through their allies in the

council or may approach the International Court of Justice for adjudication. The major feature of

this stage is breakdown in communication between the parties.

At the communal level or ethno related conflict the relationship hitherto existing between the two

groups will be completely broken. Other measures such as embargo, blockade, and withdrawal of

any tie could be taken by parties. Preventing further escalation at this stage will require the

intervention of a powerful or superior third party or authority for example, the government or the

United Nation (in case of international dispute). At inter-personal level of conflict; families,

communities or their leaders, organizations where the parties belong, religious group(s), or a

charismatic leader(s) respected by the parties can intervene to prevent further escalation.

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 5. Hostility Stage.

This is the most violent among the stages. Parties in a conflict or dispute at this stage engage

themselves in a physical and violent action. If it is national conflict, the stage may lead to a full

blown civil war, while groups that adopts unconventional warfare tactics may apart from armed

attack, resort to insurgency, terrorism, guerilla tactics e.t.c

Parties at this stage will bring out all the resources and armaments within their arsenal to pursue

their interest positions and need so as to actualize them. This stage is characterized by loss of lives

and properties. The destructive nature of this stage makes it susceptible to intractability because it

is the stage where parties may adopt both high and low intensive warfare depending on the

environment of conflict. Both conventional and unconventional warfare tactics is applied by

disputants at this stage. In a non-violent conflict, this is the stage that total breakdown of

relationship, ties and communication as well as cold war between parties occurs. Even while

fighting and cold war ranges between parties, diplomatic means to end the fighting could be

explored. But if it is in a communal or ethnic conflict, government mobilizes its apparatus such as

the armed forces, and the police to enforce peace.

In the enforcement of peace, government uses conflict suppression mechanism to quell or stop the

adversary and aggressive groups in the conflict. Best (2006:96) described conflict suppression as

a situation whereby instrument of power or force is used to push away the issues under the carpet

or to impose a solution that is not sustainable and which parties are not satisfied. This happens in

an unequal power relation. Government and repressive regimes are usually guilty of this situation

by declining to take appropriate decision to end it or trying to lord it over others leading to a

protracted conflicts. . Sometimes state using its coercive apparatus to suppress conflict but this

5
cannot be sustained. In a non-violent conflict, this is the stage that parties adopts any measure

overtly or covertly to win the other. The power relation of the parties is brought to bear at this

stage that is whether it is asymmetric (unequal) or symmetric (equal). It is only the surrender or

capitulation of one of the parties or the application of peace enforcement and conflict suppression

strategies by government in ethno-communal conflict that can halt fighting. Any form of mediation

at this stage is always a futile exercise

6. Cessation/Ceasefire stage.

This is the stage that fighting comes to a halt or hostiles ends. The factors that could halt hostilities

at this stage include:

1. If there is a ceasefire brokered by a third party and which the parties agreed to respect

and honour.

2. If one of the parties suffers defeat, surrenders or withdrew from the issue in dispute, for

example when Iraq after annexing Kuwait, withdrew from Kuwaiti territories after

suffering defeat from the allied forces during the gulf war, the war came to an end.

3. If one or all the parties exhaust their armaments and weapons or if any of their weapon

supply route is blocked (as done to the Biafrans during Nigeria- Biafra civil war 1967-1970.

4. In the communal or ethno conflict, it is the deployment of security apparatus by

government , exhaustion, exertion, blockade of source and shortage of weapon supply

as well as other instruments of war, defeat of one of the parties, or suffering of heavy

losses by parties or one of the parties, diplomatic effort of a third party among others.

5. When the parties suffer exertion. In any violent conflict no matter the power relation and

the environment of the conflict, there is a period or stage that disputants suffer from

exertion, because war is fought by human beings and not by machines even where

6
 modern technology is used, it is still operated by human beings who must suffer exertion

at any stage or the other

When all or some of the factors highlighted above comes to bear, there will be partial or complete

cessation of hostility or ceasefire by the parties. Sometimes parties in a conflict may use cessation

of hostility or ceasefire as a strategy to mobilize and reinforce their troops or warriors and their

weapon arsenal.

This is also the stage that peacekeepers are deployed to separate the two sides and create a buffer

zone. Under international law, the duty of mobilizing and deploying troops for peacekeeping in

any troubled spot in the world lies with the United Nation Secretary General as may be approved

by the Security Council. The peace keepers could be an observer mission, as witnessed in Rwanda,

Mozambique, and Congo. Furthermore a regional organization like EU, AU , OAS or a sub-

regional organization like the ECOWAS and NATO can put in place a peacekeeping outfit on the

permission of the Security Council, as done in Sierra Leone and Liberia by ECOMOG and in

former Yugoslavia by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Peace keeping at this stage

usually takes a long period of time as the peace keepers must remain in the conflict zone until a

final resolution is affected unless the deploying body wish to withdraw them for obvious reason.

In a non violent conflict this is the period that the cold war between the parties will come to a halt.

6. Resolution Stage

This is the stage of peace making and peace building as well as reaching on an agreement to end a

conflict. It is the parties in a conflict having tasted the scourge of war and having ceased fire comes

to the negotiation table or allows a third party to mediate such conflict. It is the stage that

mediation and negotiation becomes effective. The resolution of the conflict will pave way for

7
peace building and transformation of conflict however; parties in a conflict may resort to go back

to the hostility stage if they were not properly accommodated on the issue that precipitated the

conflict during resolution. Resolution of conflict at this stage paves way for reinstatement of

diplomatic tie or relation among the two warring parties both in international or national, or

communal conflict.

7. Reconstruction Stage

In every violent conflict there is always a high level of destruction which may affect lives and

properties as well as relations, even in a non violent but hostile conflict, emotions, relationships,

ties, resources are also destroyed. When the conflict comes to an end after its resolution,

reconstruction begins. This may be in the form of rebuilding damaged infrastructures or structures,

relationship and ties, as well as emotions.

At the end of Nigeria-Biafra civil war in 1970, the Federal Military government saw the need to

effect the reconstruction of the damages caused by the war by launching the famous 3Rs which

translates to reconstruction rehabilitation and re Every conflict all over the world develops in stages

and escalates in phases and magnitude. What this indicates is that conflict transits from one stage to

another. Different scholars and authors have written exhaustively/extensively on stages of conflict as

well as its phases and cycles. The identifiable difference is in the nomenclature given to some of the

phases or stages, that apart, the explanations are the same. building. Communities or ethnic groups

that engaged in conflict especially violent conflict use the period to rehabilitate families and

relatives of the victims of the war. In a national conflict, it is the stage that disarmament,

demobilization and reintegration of former combatants takes place. In international conflict, it is

the function of the national government of each of the parties/states to effect this reconstruction.

However some international organizations like the World Bank, African Development Bank, and

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 numerous other international donors and organizations offers assistance in one way or the other in

the process of this reconstruction.

Reference

Cite this paper: Adenyi T. O (2016) Stages of conflict. In Adenyi, T. O (Eds) Elements of peace

studies and conflict resolution. Enugu: Oktek Publishers

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