1

Abortion Attitudes and Identity

Sam Hodges

PS 5030: Seminar in American Government and Politics

April 28th, 2022

Abstract: Religion and partisan identity are driving forces in many attitudes, and abortion

attitudes are not immune. Previous research has focused on snapshots of the American public

and has focused primarily on religious affiliation. I propose a longitudinal panel survey design

to study partisanship, religious affiliation, and religiosity as identities that drive abortion

attitudes. I believe the study will find that people who identify more strongly with one of those

identities, regardless of which side they are on, will be more likely to have stronger abortion

attitudes. I also believe that religiosity will have a large effect and moderate the effect of

religious affiliation.
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Introduction

What identities are most important in influencing abortion attitudes? Moreover, how do these

change over time? I expect that abortion attitudes will remain constant over time because I also

expect that the identities that influence abortion attitudes will also stay constant. Most people

think women should have some legal access to abortion and that public opinion has not shifted

much. About 75% of people supported some form of legal abortion in 1975, and in 2018 that

number was at 79% (Santhanam 2018). The US population has not changed their attitudes, but

what about the strength of those attitudes? The strength of these identities and how closely

people identify with them will change over time. I expect fluctuations in the strength of these

identities to correlate with the strength of abortion attitudes.

A longitudinal panel survey study would show how the strength of abortion attitudes changes

over time, which is not often done when studying abortion attitudes. Most recent studies of

abortion attitudes have settled for cross-sectional snapshots of the American public. Though

more expensive and time-consuming, a longitudinal panel survey study would hammer in the

details of causality much more than the snapshot. It will also allow us to see if there are

fluctuations in attitudes and what causes them if it is one of our independent variables of interest.

I suspect that the effect of the religious affiliation variable that researchers have long focused on

will be strongly moderated by the effect of religiosity.

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Literature Review

Political attitude change is a well-researched phenomenon. One tremendous factor in

determining attitude change is the social circles we run in. MacKuen and Brown found that

social circles do not work on their own in changing attitudes. Instead, they work primarily by

shaping the information from outside influences (1987). Another scholarly study looked at

political attitudes in the early 2000s and how exposure to political information impacted them.

By doing two studies on several types of radio talk shows, they found that when people are

exposed to one-sided messaging on a position, their agreement with that position increases as the

exposure increases. People are also more likely to listen to a source that already agrees with them

(Lee and Cappella 2001). The strength of one's identity has also been studied regarding its

impact on opinion. Party elites and co-partisans can impact opinion change, but this effect is

most potent among those with the strongest association with their party (Toff, Benjamin, and

Suhay 2019). The strength of one's identity and attitudes also impact how much a person will use

motivated reasoning to defend that identity or attitude (Leeper and Slothuus 2014). When people

are more firmly attached to an identity or attitude, they will also be more likely to seek out

information to defend that identity or attitude. This, I believe, will create a stronger attitude.

Partisanship is a massive predictor of political attitudes. For example, partisanship drives

opinions about objective factors like the economy. For example, when George W. Bush took

office, all partisan groups had an optimistic view of how the country was doing economically.

However, by 2004, Republicans' economic ratings were roughly 75%, while Democrats' were

around 25%. Though the level of political polarization had some moderating effect on
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polarization, there was still a significant effect from partisanship (Enns and McAvoy 2012). The

same holds for abortion attitudes. Democrats are consistently more liberal on abortion than

Republicans. Republicans are becoming more progressive on abortion issues but are moving

slowly and are still much more likely to be pro-life, especially in the South (Jelen 2017).

As time has gone by, people have become more accepting of abortion. Over time, abortion

attitudes have changed in a more liberal, pro-choice direction. The turning point seemed to be

what some call the "post-pill generation," women who were in their 20s when the morning after

pill was introduced. This generation of women, and generations after, are getting progressively

more liberal with their abortion attitudes (Scott 1998). However, there appears to be a big

difference between what women see as the legal right to an abortion and whether women think

having an abortion is morally right or wrong. Six months after seeking an abortion, most women

(80%) supported abortions being legal. However, a significant portion of them (20%) still

thought it was morally wrong (Woodruff et al. 2018). There have also been conflicting reports in

abortion attitude research. Some people change their political affiliation because of a change in

their abortion attitudes, but the situation occurs just as often in the opposite direction(Casey,

Thomas, and Layman 2006). By doing a longitudinal study with the same group of people, I can

see if they are more likely to change their political affiliations or abortion attitudes over time.

A majority of the recent research has focused on religion as the primary independent variable. In

contrast, partisanship is the 4th most used independent variable (Adamczyk, Kim, and Dillon

2020). Some religious affiliations are more associated with one side of the abortion debate over

the other. For example, Jehova's Witnesses, Evangelical Protestants, and Mormons are all
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significantly more likely to have pro-life attitudes than someone who is Buddhist, Jewish, or

Unaffiliated, who are much more likely to have pro-choice attitudes (Pew Research Center

2014). However, religion was mainly studied using just religious affiliation, not using other

measures that could be more important (Adamczyk, Kim, and Dillon 2020). The religious

affiliations effect might be less significant if religiosity is accounted for. For black people,

attending church more often and interpreting the Bible more literally made them more likely to

be pro-choice (Gay and Lynxwiler 1999). Additionally, religiosity could play a role in deciding

who gets involved in politics in the first place. The religious beliefs that one holds about political

power, who should hold it, how it should be wielded, and where it comes from influence how

much a person is involved in political activity (Philpott 2007). My research would include

religious affiliation and religiosity measures to see if religiosity has a more significant effect than

just religious affiliation.

Theory

My research question is: What identities are most important in influencing abortion attitudes?

Furthermore, how do these change over time? I anticipate that abortion attitudes will remain

reasonably stable throughout a person’s life. I believe the attitudes themselves will be stable

because they are primarily a product of very stable identities: partisanship, religion, and

religiosity. These identities can shift, but I believe they will not shift in most people. We know

one way attitudes can shift is through our social circles. Since our social circles are becoming

more heterogeneous, I doubt that our identities or attitudes will shift. I assume that people are

more likely to change the strength of their abortion attitudes rather than their political affiliations.
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I believe that any change in abortion attitudes or the given strength of those attitudes will

strongly correlate with shifts in partisanship, religion, or religiosity. Most of the research on

abortion attitudes has been cross-sectional, taking a snapshot of attitudes at one specific time.

While this is helpful, more longitudinal research is needed to understand better the causal

relationship between many independent variables and abortion attitudes. Specifically, suppose

there is a causal relationship between the independent variables of religion and partisanship and

the dependent variable of abortion attitudes. In that case, it should show even more clearly in a

longitudinal study.

I theorize that partisanship, religion, and religiosity are the most significant factors driving

pro-choice and pro-life attitudes in the US. As someone identifies more strongly with one of

those identities, regardless of where they sit on the abortion debate, I expect them to have

stronger abortion attitudes. In particular, I expect religiosity to have a significant effect. I expect

those with higher religiosity scores to be those who hold stronger abortion attitudes. I do not

expect abortion attitudes, partisanship, or religion to change significantly.

H1: As someone identifies as a stronger partisan, they will develop stronger abortion attitudes,

regardless of which side of the political spectrum they sit on.

Partisanship is increasingly a driver of opinions on current issues. If someone identifies as a

Democrat, they are more likely to be for stronger gun regulations or fewer people patrolling our

borders. If being a partisan becomes more important to someone, then how strongly they believe

in a position associated with their partisanship should also increase. People with stronger
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identities and attitudes are also more strongly motivated to seek out information that confirms

these identities and attitudes. So, it makes sense that as someone becomes a stronger partisan,

they would seek out more information and then develop stronger attitudes from those sources

and the circles they are involved in. For example, I expect someone who identifies as a Strong

Democrat to have stronger abortion attitudes than someone who identifies as Leaning Democrat.

H2: Someone Evangelical Protestant, Jehovah’s Witness, or Mormon is significantly more likely

to have pro-life attitudes than someone who is not. Someone who is Buddhist, Jewish, or

Unaffiliated is significantly more likely to have pro-choice attitudes than someone who is not.

My second hypothesis is about which religions are more likely to be pro-choice vs. pro-life. This

hypothesis is not about the strength of an attitude. This is about confirming previous research

that has already been done to compare it with the results I expect from my third hypothesis.

Studies have already shown that certain religions are more or less associated with certain

abortion attitudes. By asking the same questions, I am attempting to replicate results from other

scholars. I hypothesize that if someone changes their religious affiliation (which will be rare),

they should switch their abortion attitudes to be more in line with the prototypical person of their

new religion/religious beliefs.

H3: As someone becomes more religious (i.e., attends more religious services or is more literal

about their religious text), they will develop stronger abortion attitudes, regardless of which side

of the debate they fall on.

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My third hypothesis is what I will use to compare to the results of my second hypothesis. I

expect to get the same results as other scholars, that certain religions or religious beliefs are

associated with certain abortion attitudes. However, I believe that religion will stay mostly the

same, but the strength will waver. For example, one might expect that as people become older

and enter into legal adulthood, the strength of their religious opinion may fade. This could be

because of the distance from respondents’ childhood environments or exposure to new ideas. The

research on the effect of religiosity on black people’s abortion attitudes was done over 20 years

ago, and people have gotten more progressive with their views on abortion, Democrats and

Republicans alike. It would be interesting to see if that effect has changed and if it still only

holds for black churchgoers.

Research Design

A cross-sectional study would only look at attitudes in the present, so it would only look at how

people feel at a given point in time. A longitudinal panel survey study will help us understand

how abortion attitudes change over time, which is lacking in current abortion attitude research. It

will also let us know what identities are essential to it and which identities changing creates a

change in abortion attitudes, if there are any at all. The design I am proposing would also allow

for the strength of the abortion attitude to fluctuate with the strength of specific identities, which

I suspect will fluctuate more than the attitude itself. Although this is not strictly part of my

research question, I also intend to ask about both the legal and moral side of abortion and see

how that correlates with identities and the strength of specific identities. This will provide

another lens through which to view abortion attitudes, and it is never a detriment to have extra
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information. The study would select a group of people to be surveyed for an extended period.

Respondents would have to answer the same survey questions every time they were surveyed. I

plan to include age, race, and education as control variables. These are all items that I believe

could affect my dependent variable of interest but are outside of the bounds of this research

design.

We are also in a unique position with the upcoming Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson

Women’s Health Organization. This monumental occasion means that the American people are

probably unusually cognizant of abortion issues and their attitudes towards it this year. With this

in mind, I believe it would be valuable to see how citizens feel about abortion attitudes during

this crucial point in time. The Supreme Court is expected to announce its decision in early

summer; therefore, I believe that sometime in late April-early May would be an excellent time to

ask people how they feel about abortion. It could then be later compared with periods when the

issue is not as salient to see if people have more intense opinions/attitudes when the issue is more

salient. This will be a score based on the abortion attitude questions that I will describe below.

My dependent variable of interest is the strength of abortion attitudes. My independent variables

of interest are the strength of religious affiliation, religiosity, and the strength of partisanship.

Question descriptions for these are below. For a complete list of questions, see the Appendix.

Methods & Questions

I would randomly sample people to get a representative sample of the US population. I would

select a group of 16-50 years old, allowing for some age variation among the respondents. For 30
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years, they would be surveyed and asked about their abortion attitudes, identities, and strengths

every five years. Most of these questions will be from, or influenced by, the 2020 American

National Election Survey (ANES) and Pew Research Center questions. Every time the

respondents were surveyed, they would be asked the same questions about their identity and

abortion attitudes. The survey would need to be adjusted if there was some general party flip in

abortion stances, but I anticipate it will remain the same throughout the study. Over time, I can

compare the differences in responses among the same people. I expect to see some fluctuation in

the strength of the partisanship, religion, and religiosity variables that correlate with a change in

the strength of a respondent’s abortion attitudes.

Abortion attitudes will be measured through a series of questions that ask people their opinions

on abortions in the United States. Participants will be asked questions that focus on both the

legality and morality of abortion. The questions will also account for the strength of an opinion.

For example, someone will be asked if they agree or disagree that abortion should be legal in all

circumstances. After answering all of the questions, the scores will be ranked in an index, and

the participants will be given an overall strength of abortion attitude score. This is what I expect

to fluctuate over time with identity.

Similarly, for identity, participants will be asked questions about various aspects of their identity

and then how strongly they identify with said identity. Some of the questions will be phrased as

“how important is X identity to you,” and people will be able to rank it on a similar scale to

abortion attitudes. For religiosity, the questions will be based on standard questions that

participants get asked in other studies, like the ANES. The main things that will make up a
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religiosity score are how often participants go to religious services and how literally participants

interpret their religious texts. Other control variables will be included in each survey, such as

age, gender, ideology, and education. However, I do not expect these to have as much of a

statistically significant relationship with the strength of abortion attitudes as my independent

variables of interest.

Discussion and Conclusion

My biggest concern with this type of research design would be attrition, people dropping out of

the study over time, for whatever reasons. There are ways to reduce the number of people

dropping out. One way, in particular, would be to make sure to keep as many of the same

interviewers as possible. Participants respond well when they can continue to speak to the same

people over time. Another way to reduce nonresponses is to keep track of the participants even

during the periods when they are not being asked survey questions. A great way of doing that

would be to offer respondents a monetary reward to update their address and contact information

whenever it changes. This would incentivize them to keep in contact with interviewers and

remind them about their obligation to do the survey (Laurie et al. 1999). Though this is much

more time-consuming and expensive, it would also provide much better data at the end of the

survey because retention rates would be much higher.

Another smaller area of concern is respondents giving incorrect, or inaccurate information about

themselves. Sometimes respondents will give what they believe to be the socially desirable

answer, but not their actual answer because they believe they would be judged for it. This results

in inaccurate information and can result in surveyors drawing incorrect conclusions about the
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sample they have. For the purposes of my survey, I do not think this would be a substantial issue.

The people would be anonymous, their demographic information only known to me and any

other researchers involved in the study. This would remove the incentive to answer incorrectly.

The research team would likely never know or meet the people completing the study. This would

hopefully remove the incentive to give socially desirable answers, as there is no one to impress

and no one who will judge their answer.

I hope this research will give better insight into how abortion attitudes are formed and how they

change. Previous research has focused on snapshots and has primarily ignored religiosity. Based

on the current literature, I believe that religiosity will cause the currently estimated effect of

religion to decrease dramatically. Religion will still be a decisive factor, but a better predictor of

abortion attitudes and the strength of those attitudes will be religiosity. I believe that the panel

survey, done over 30 years, will show us how abortion attitudes strengthen and weaken over time

in correlation with my independent variables of interest. In particular, I believe that partisanship

and religiosity will be the strongest predictors of abortion attitude strength, with religiosity

accounting for much of the effect currently attributed to religious affiliation.

An interesting next place to take this abortion attitude research would be back to the short term,

but an experiment based on identity. The research could be a survey experiment where randomly

selected participants would be asked to describe themselves and their identities before asking

questions about abortion. In contrast, others could be asked the same questions about identities

after getting asked their questions about abortion. By comparing the two groups, one could see
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which identities typically rise to the top of mind before or after thinking about abortion. This

would help see which identities participants bring to mind when making their abortion attitudes.
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References

Adamczyk, Amy, Chunrye Kim, and Leevia Dillon. 2020. “Examining Public Opinion about

Abortion: A Mixed-Methods Systematic Review of Research over the Last 15 Years.”

Sociological Inquiry 90 (4): Pages 920-954.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/soin.12351.

Carsey, Thomas, and Geoffrey Layman. 2006. “Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party

Identification and Policy Preferences the American Electorate.” American Journal of

Political Science 50 (2): Pages 464-477.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00196.x.

Enns, Peter K., and Gregory E. McAvoy. "The role of partisanship in aggregate opinion."

Political Behavior 34, no. 4 (2012): 627-651.

Gay, David, and John Lynxwiler. 2010. “THE IMPACT OF RELIGIOSITY ON RACE

VARIATIONS IN ABORTION ATTITUDES.” Sociological Spectrum 19 (3): Pages

359-377. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.

Jelen, Ted G. "Public Attitudes Toward Abortion and LGBTQ Issues: A dynamic analysis of

region and partisanship." Sage Open 7, no. 1 (2017):

 15

Laurie, Heather, Rachel Smith, and Lynne Scott. 2014. “Strategies for Reducing Nonresponse in

a Longitudinal Panel Survey.” Journal of Official Statistics 15 (2): Pages 269-282.

http://repository.essex.ac.uk/8747/.

Lee, Gangheong, and Joseph N. Cappella. "The effects of political talk radio on political attitude

formation: Exposure versus knowledge." Political Communication 18, no. 4 (2001):

369-394.

Leeper, Thomas J., and Rune Slothuus. "Political parties, motivated reasoning, and public

opinion formation." Political Psychology 35 (2014): 129-156.

MacKuen, Michael, and Courtney Brown. "Political context and attitude change." American

Political Science Review 81, no. 2 (1987): 471-490.

PHILPOTT, DANIEL. “Explaining the Political Ambivalence of Religion.” American Political

Science Review 101, no. 3 (2007): 505–25. doi:10.1017/S0003055407070372.

Santhanam, Laura. “How Has Public Opinion about Abortion Changed since Roe v. Wade?”

PBS. Public Broadcasting Service, July 20, 2018.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-has-public-opinion-about-abortion-changed-si

nce-roe-v-wade.
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Scott, Jacqueline. 1998. “Generational Changes in Attitudes to Abortion: A Cross-National

Comparison.” European Sociological Review 14 (2): Pages 177–190.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.esr.a018233.

Toff, Benjamin, and Elizabeth Suhay. "Partisan conformity, social identity, and the formation of

policy preferences." International Journal of Public Opinion Research 31, no. 2 (2019):

349-367.

Toor, Meena. 2020. “Demographic Survey Questions That Yield Valuable Insights.” Qualtrics:

Market Research. Qualtrics XM. December 11, 2020.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.

Woodruff, Katie, M. Antonia Biggs, Heather Gould, and Diana Foster. 2018. “Attitudes Toward

Abortion After Receiving vs. Being Denied an Abortion in the USA.” Sexuality Research

and Social Policy 15 (March): Pages 452-463.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s13178-018-0325-1.

2014. “2014 RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE STUDY (RLS-II) MAIN SURVEY OF

NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF ADULTS FINAL

QUESTIONNAIRE .” Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. May 30, 2014.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.
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2021. “THE ANES GUIDE TO PUBLIC OPINION AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR.”

American National Election Studies. ANES. August 16, 2021.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/027321799280190.
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Appendix A

Identities & Attitudes

Start of Block: Demographics

Gender How would you describe your gender?

o Male (1)

o Female (2)

o Non-binary / third gender (3)

o Prefer not to say (4)

Age What is your age?

________________________________________________________________

Race What is your ethnic background?

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o White/Caucasion (1)

o Asian - Eastern (2)

o Asian - Indian (3)

o Hispanic (4)

o Black/African-American (5)

o Native-American (6)

o Mixed race (7)

o Other (8)

Education What is the highest level of education you have achieved?

o Less than high school (1)

o High school graduate (2)

o Some college (3)

o 2 year degree (4)

o 4 year degree (5)

o Professional degree (6)

o Doctorate (7)

Marital status What is your marital status?

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o Married (1)

o Widowed (2)

o Divorced (3)

o Separated (4)

o Never married (5)

End of Block: Demographics

Start of Block: Party/Ideology and Strength Of

Political Party Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican,

an Independent or something else?

o Democrat (1)

o Republican (2)

o Independent (3)

o Other (4)

Display This Question:

If Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an

Independent... = Democrat

Dem How would you identify?

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o Strong Democrat (1)

o Moderate Democrat (2)

o Weak Democrat (3)

o Leaning Democrat (4)

Display This Question:

If Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an

Independent... = Republican

Rep How would you identify?

o Strong Republican (1)

o Moderate Republican (2)

o Weak Republican (3)

o Leaning Republican (4)

Strength of party How important is your political party to your identity?

o Extremely important (1)

o Very important (2)

o Moderately important (3)

o Slightly important (4)

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o Not at all important (5)

Ideology Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be liberal, conservative, moderate, or

something else?

o Liberal (1)

o Conservative (2)

o Moderate (3)

o Other (4)

Strength of ideology How important is your ideology to your identity?

o Extremely important (1)

o Very important (2)

o Moderately important (3)

o Slightly important (4)

o Not at all important (5)

End of Block: Party/Ideology and Strength Of

Start of Block: Religion/Religiosity

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Present Religion What is your present religion, if any?

o Evangelical Protestant (1)

o Roman Catholic (2)

o Orthodox Christian (such as Greek or Russian Orthodox) (3)

o Latter-Day Saints (LDS) (4)

o Jewish (5)

o Muslim (6)

o Buddhist (7)

o Hindu (8)

o Atheist (9)

o Agnostic (10)

o Something else (11)

o Nothing in particular (12)

Display This Question:

If What is your present religion, if any? = Evangelical Protestant

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Roman Catholic

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Orthodox Christian (such as Greek or Russian

Orthodox)

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Latter-Day Saints (LDS)

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Jewish

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Or What is your present religion, if any? = Muslim

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Buddhist

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Hindu

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Something else

Important or not? Do you consider religion to be an important part of your life?

o Important (1)

o Not important (2)

o Don't know (3)

Display This Question:

If Do you consider religion to be an important part of your life? = Important

Guidance Would you say your religion provides some guidance in your day-to day living, quite a

bit of guidance, or a great deal of guidance?

o Some (1)

o Quite a bit (2)

o A great deal (3)

o Don't know (4)

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Attendance Lots of things come up that keep people from attending religious services. Thinking

of your life these days, how often do you go to religious services?

o Every week (1)

o Almost every week (2)

o Once or twice a month (3)

o A few times a year (4)

o Never (5)

o Don't know (6)

Display This Question:

If What is your present religion, if any? = Evangelical Protestant

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Roman Catholic

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Orthodox Christian (such as Greek or Russian

Orthodox)

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Latter-Day Saints (LDS)

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Jewish

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Muslim

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Buddhist

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Hindu

Or What is your present religion, if any? = Something else

Literalism Which of these is closest to your view about your religion's holy text?
 26

o It is the word of God (1)

o It is a book written by men and is not the Word of God (2)

o Other (3)

o Don't Know (4)

End of Block: Religion/Religiosity

Start of Block: Abortion Attitudes

Opinion There has been some discussion about abortion during recent years. Which one of the

opinions below best agrees with your views?

o By law, abortion should never be permitted (1)

o The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is

in danger (2)

o The law should permit abortion other than for rape/incest/danger to woman but only after

need has been clearly established (3)

o By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal

choice (4)

o Other: (5) ________________________________________________

o Don't know (6)

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Court Past How do you feel about the Supreme Court's past decisions on abortion rights?

o Extremely displeased (1)

o Somewhat displeased (2)

o Neither pleased nor displeased (3)

o Somewhat pleased (4)

o Extremely pleased (5)

Q22 How would you feel if the Supreme Court reduced abortion rights in the future?

o Extremely displeased (1)

o Somewhat displeased (2)

o Neither pleased nor displeased (3)

o Somewhat pleased (4)

o Extremely pleased (5)

End of Block: Abortion Attitudes