5C

MATRICULA Category Channel M P 22 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19

AEDO210902 GI Modern 1.95 12,420 12,528 13,817 23,507 4,356
ADZO211115 Oral Care Modern 2.23 29,936 30,910 28,011 27,204 29,916
ARJO210144 Oral Care Modern 2.23 22,500 29,028 31,380 19,392 26,028
BLDO211647 RespiratoryModern 1.18 5,928 4,560 2,433 3,746 3,622
CLAO210420 Oral Care Modern 5.16 6,096 7,224 - 7,896 7,908
CVLO210399 Oral Care Modern 2.23 12,636 17,004 15,588 15,444 14,388
CCEO210000 MVM Modern 3.03 5,616 2,592 864 3,510 756
CGEO210152 Oral Care Modern 6.79 - - - - -

CMAO211873 RespiratoryModern 2.87 13,032 2,998 2,863 (344) 1,362

CPGO210035 MVM Modern 2.27 72 3,312 6,070 5,627 7,770

DMFO211495 Oral Care Modern 2.60 10,032 7,404 9,384 8,676 10,128
ECKO212196 Pain Modern 2.40 - - 2,328 2,304 3,936
GRKO202062 Pain Modern 1.67 - - - - -
GCBO210357 MVM Modern 2.27 5,256 4,128 6,606 4,798 7,036
GERO210374 RespiratoryModern 2.04 3,600 2,232 2,628 2,436 3,072

HPMO210261 Oral Care Modern 3.37 8,688 9,359 16,355 8,904 3,167
LGVO210170 Oral Care Modern 2.23 8,232 8,844 8,604 7,488 9,012
LSGO211845 Pain Modern 6.91 3,660 4,350 4,620 2,070 2,610

MMJO211167 MVM Modern 4.08 - - 1,440 1,488 12,480

MGAO210657 Oral Care Modern 8.20 1,224 2,040 1,200 5,616 1,584

MRCO210097 MVM Modern 4.90 1,344 3,480 6,120 5,616 -

MEJO210326 GI Modern 6.34 1,170 2,670 1,050 3,720 3,870

OHDO210365 Oral Care Modern 2.60 8,196 7,488 8,376 7,044 9,180
RHSO211985 Oral Care Modern 4.36 6,246 5,742 5,790 5,214 8,291
RLBO211029 Oral Care Modern 10.29 11,664 7,776 864 5,616 9,936
SZDO211499 Oral Care Modern 3.65 11,664 7,776 864 5,616 9,936
SSAO211187 GI Modern 5.41 1,584 1,740 984 3,456 1,176
SGAO212007 Pain Modern 4.10 3,888 10,464 3,936 3,288 2,568
SDJO211842 Oral Care Modern 1.65 2,688 3,071 2,981 5,613 4,395
TCLO211644 Oral Care Modern 4.35 - - - - -
TRJO210095 Pain Modern 1.68 2,300 1,500 1,049 3,718 2,385
VPYO211692 MVM Modern 7.98 912 - 2,568 2,112 1,944
VVAO211479 Pain Modern 4.09 3,000 4,240 3,908 8,163 2,755
Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
16,272 10,620 9,926 13,798 23,328 17,316 7,632 14,652 44,064 3,600
47,532 27,492 19,980 26,328 24,072 23,364 31,248 16,908 20,052 19,008
30,156 23,580 17,196 21,252 20,364 18,948 24,996 15,744 18,300 16,536
4,835 2,866 53,769 3,613 14,410 2,343 3,120 8,307 3,540 450
8,568 8,136 5,232 5,712 14,352 11,100 6,876 9,540 9,168 7,020
22,152 16,656 10,596 11,988 11,232 13,320 16,932 4,320 6,060 5,436
- 5,076 4,860 2,160 27,270 5,076 162 2,052 10,962 53,943
- - - - - - - 6,576 8,004 6,696

2,070 3,432 26,020 (231) 7,035 3,495 2,376 9,960 1,479 (266)
9,097 6,719 8,879 5,420 8,639 8,749 8,712 17,039 12,791 9,621

12,600 14,616 6,060 8,688 5,196 4,572 7,116 10,824 8,904 8,088
12,816 6,000 17,640 16,592 8,136 6,816 18,000 4,728 16,623 6,622
- - - 12,048 1,392 5,328 4,872 6,576 2,495 2,831
7,921 9,096 6,479 5,542 6,641 8,496 8,376 15,545 13,478 11,310
1,740 1,524 - 3,648 4,176 7,137 7,116 9,072 2,832 3,024

- - 432 29,760 30,624 2,232 1,704 2,424 3,814 2,448

15,168 8,352 5,448 10,752 7,668 7,884 11,544 3,972 5,064 4,764
2,910 3,720 2,520 6,720 5,610 1,770 - 7,680 10,920 9,360

7,176 6,696 6,816 264 1,392 3,216 1,224 (24) (60) (56)

3,120 3,744 2,064 960 11,352 3,072 1,416 2,544 11,472 2,112

12,576 7,632 21,288 629 - 9,648 3,816 4,153 (14) (98)

6,150 3,870 2,610 1,590 1,530 6,750 4,080 1,140 8,220 3,690

16,272 12,048 4,656 5,628 5,232 5,184 8,856 6,156 3,276 3,336
6,168 3,786 6,624 4,044 4,668 4,218 6,642 4,662 4,728 5,412
2,592 17,268 10,800 12,528 15,120 14,688 6,912 3,270 3,414 3,816
2,592 17,268 10,800 12,528 15,120 14,688 6,912 3,270 3,414 3,816
3,096 2,196 1,668 540 2,604 3,048 4,308 3,036 4,848 3,528
9,744 5,304 7,224 7,032 3,144 3,024 4,800 1,622 6,395 2,276
1,983 4,057 4,655 1,979 4,144 3,725 3,648 2,382 3,942 2,819
- - 1,836 3,864 3,246 3,426 4,248 4,380 4,794 3,186
1,706 3,255 3,603 3,671 4,067 3,776 4,240 3,419 2,367 2,159
504 408 5,760 3,816 9,216 - - - 8,304 -
2,332 3,078 16,800 4,044 8,499 769 2,160 325 2,807 3,129
Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
5,472 9,648 11,988 - 23,472 15,012 15,804 30,312 27,360 31,824
25,080 13,392 24,300 28,656 20,580 9,732 23,064 19,318 29,652 20,496
16,116 16,056 24,096 16,764 14,748 15,372 19,692 18,468 23,364 13,872
6,009 4,606 4,844 6,226 10,008 8,737 6,285 13,395 11,910 12,622
18,192 11,976 8,988 10,524 9,312 10,740 9,060 10,176 19,164 8,052
5,268 5,304 8,496 7,140 7,392 6,204 9,024 8,400 9,396 6,240
- 594 648 7,722 27,162 3,672 9,828 9,234 14,418 30,834
5,772 5,916 7,860 11,421 11,825 13,044 5,543 10,188 9,790 7,278

895 2,097 2,709 4,744 6,648 10,774 6,447 8,681 5,235 8,665
8,754 10,624 5,205 8,135 20,688 6,071 3,164 15,024 11,061 11,487

10,932 8,916 10,212 7,236 7,740 9,264 7,632 6,048 10,188 7,692
6,864 3,329 5,211 6,171 6,360 8,808 3,975 3,984 1,344 9,840
8,304 6,840 8,520 7,320 7,248 4,944 7,392 5,640 7,080 6,672
8,169 4,699 6,932 7,365 20,256 6,744 1,582 15,982 10,869 11,682
4,456 3,684 4,044 7,056 9,924 5,376 4,176 10,728 11,327 8,026

8,832 3,237 4,344 6,767 16,008 2,280 1,440 8,493 6,887 6,671
6,120 6,480 7,584 7,164 5,856 5,280 9,408 7,226 8,256 5,736
810 3,390 1,530 12,360 7,920 180 - - - 6,000

5,282 3,232 674 (9) 6,000 8,448 10,991 5,974 - 8,976

(672) 960 9,024 5,616 6,672 864 2,160 11,928 7,224 4,200

(46) (40) (49) (18) 8,664 4,556 6,272 9,330 6,566 (2)
2,458 4,350 2,370 4,650 8,820 840 3,090 7,800 2,220 3,210

4,848 5,868 6,468 4,836 5,232 6,516 5,244 5,388 7,104 5,532
5,088 5,088 6,186 4,320 4,464 4,500 4,710 5,274 5,994 3,714
4,176 3,222 3,150 2,442 2,634 - 5,088 - 5,988 3,732
4,176 3,222 3,150 2,442 2,634 - 5,088 - 5,988 3,732
1,860 1,440 2,724 2,736 8,532 1,344 1,980 12,828 2,100 1,944
4,751 3,325 2,486 4,399 4,512 5,423 5,226 5,993 3,474 4,163
1,418 3,732 4,450 3,977 9,336 2,385 1,980 7,209 5,079 869
4,422 2,340 4,908 4,620 4,914 4,398 3,996 3,930 4,662 3,474
3,015 2,392 2,387 3,140 3,500 3,400 2,919 4,180 3,620 4,898
8,856 7,344 4,032 6,864 - - 8,424 - - -
3,680 (35) (82) (40) 5,400 3,646 4,296 3,724 4,217 1,027
Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22
16,344 13,608 4,824 8,061 14,724 27,752 25,019 7,988 35,424 34,560
22,176 13,104 13,380 22,500 27,384 15,240 19,848 14,652 21,876 13,356
14,556 12,072 12,264 19,332 25,608 9,168 14,652 8,556 20,256 11,244
25,833 2,065 3,025 6,283 4,519 19,091 5,924 2,898 29,611 9,911
7,908 2,808 7,800 13,428 10,428 16,392 13,104 15,072 8,796 13,296
7,164 4,848 4,896 9,132 16,104 1,956 7,296 15,576 20,988 8,100
18,846 108 - 1,728 4,320 5,886 5,292 2,106 3,942 9,342
7,944 11,460 9,900 7,242 10,116 8,545 4,968 8,136 14,292 9,672

10,962 1,042 (8) 2,515 646 974 1,673 17,509 19,007 15,045
3,708 5,590 12,634 9,718 791 3,022 14,993 2,623 5,144 11,239

8,784 7,764 9,276 9,504 7,596 7,944 9,648 6,216 5,352 5,196
18,432 - 6,456 6,504 6,432 6,870 3,903 11,950 3,926 5,853
7,920 5,736 6,816 6,960 5,016 6,864 12,384 11,520 5,039 7,032
4,101 3,861 11,921 9,475 905 2,608 13,389 2,220 4,428 9,091
4,296 7,992 - 7,992 7,140 6,492 8,628 7,187 5,700 10,692

7,266 2,839 (350) 11,353 12,746 2,536 10,868 8,310 14,326 740
6,804 4,248 4,200 7,044 2,472 9,324 5,028 4,260 13,560 6,360
8,580 9,060 1,620 8,070 6,450 7,680 6,690 5,100 15,810 1,320

4,152 2,304 5,160 7,152 2,879 6,179 21,024 6,906 (4) -

3,456 2,712 1,584 - 18,816 7,224 7,584 2,736 6,912 3,312

1,055 4,342 11,616 7,416 (96) 2,352 4,584 16,320 4,536 5,064
6,690 5,910 5,100 4,500 2,160 6,660 3,960 5,520 7,350 6,810

5,952 4,788 3,924 4,488 3,996 3,804 5,172 4,824 4,056 3,972
3,774 5,160 7,488 6,066 2,046 2,934 4,212 3,534 5,124 3,552
3,192 5,982 5,766 7,158 3,246 2,502 4,038 2,964 26,784 12,732
3,192 5,982 5,766 7,158 3,246 2,502 4,038 2,964 4,590 3,564
5,892 1,716 2,628 2,508 - 7,020 5,904 5,148 7,260 8,184
6,451 1,585 2,731 3,600 3,546 6,158 2,532 6,325 4,100 5,586
5,023 (52) (92) 2,043 7,662 5,193 11,637 3,873 3,477 3,130
3,516 5,148 7,314 4,068 3,078 2,610 3,672 3,060 3,420 3,318
4,337 2,213 (18) (1) 3,368 16,029 1,031 2,288 770 5,951
- - - 3,800 5,000 6,960 4,104 6,384 15,120 8,304
3,637 2,476 2,721 3,073 2,599 3,075 3,572 5,406 2,633 4,518
Dec-22
28,116 248,244
11,844 215,856
24,036 185,616
35,015 156,797
21,720 138,804
28,656 130,956
31,914 114,318
12,348 111,901

16,224 94,254
11,751 92,700

6,132 91,104
9,811 89,977
5,472 87,431
10,952 84,633
9,600 83,745

3,984 81,289
12,252 81,288
1,710 78,090

7,368 72,096

9,768 68,304

4,200 61,387
3,180 61,050

4,392 54,900
5,232 52,836
12,924 91,020
5,388 52,122
3,144 51,348
3,829 50,606
5,112 47,875
4,182 46,860
1,896 42,762
1,320 50,992
2,239 36,976
Oral Care
1,224 Chart Title
2,040
25,000
1,200
5,616
1,584
20,000
3,120
3,744
2,064
15,000
960
11,352
3,072
Axis Title

10,000
1,416
2,544
11,472
2,112 5,000

(672)
960
9,024 -
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
5,616
6,672
864 (5,000)
2,160 Axis Title
11,928
7,224
4,200
3,456
2,712
1,584
-
18,816
7,224
7,584
2,736
6,912
3,312
9,768
68,304
25 30 35 40
 Región Ventas marzo FCST marzo Error Error ABS ACCURACY MSE
1 1500 1800 -300 20% 80% 90000
2 1000 950 50 5% 95% 2500
3 800 785 15 2% 98% 225
4 150 25 125 83% 17% 15625
5 2500 2000 500 20% 80% 250000
Suma 5950 5560 390 7% 93% 152100
Promedio

MSE 71670
RMSE 267.712532

MAPE 26%
MPE 18%
MAPE MPE Dato Año Ventas
20% -20% 1 2015 1550
5% 5% 2 2016 1660
2% 2% 3 2017 1790
83% 83% 4 2018 1935
20% 20% 5 2019 2121
7% 7% 6 2020 2305
7 2021 24807.3399
8 2022 26870.7833
9 2023 29105.8613
 Ventas
2500
f(x) = 1418.12783153477 exp( 0.0799208758245327 x )
2000 R² = 0.997673086045613

1500
Axis Title

1000

500

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Axis Title

Ventas
35000

30000

25000
f(x) = 543.369780872284 exp( 0.42527042898032 x )
R² = 0.758987367239361
20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10