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To estimate the equity risk premium for a country, I start with a mature market premium and add an additional cou
Use the look up table in the next worksheet, to look up the statistics for an individual country or region.
Step 2: Estimate the default spread for the country in question. I offer two choices, one based upon the local curre
Moody's ratings: http://www.moodys.com (You will have to register, but it is free. Look under sovereign ratings)
Ratings to spreads: Based upon my estimates of typical spreads for each ratings class. I compute these by avera
CDS spreads: Bloomberg
If you cannot find a country on this list, it is because that country does not have a sovereign rating or a sovereign CD
If you are interested in a fuller explanation of these concepts, try these references:
My paper on equity risk premiums: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4066060
My paper on country risk premiums: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4161010
Watch my lectures on country risk premiums: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIRPvY2SQ94
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3IGn6tH03c
mium and add an additional country risk premium, based upon the risk of the country in question.
al country or region.
mium for the S&P 500. To see the latest estimate for this number, go to my website and you can download the excel spreadshe
ymonth.xls
, one based upon the local currency sovereign rating for the country from Moody's and the other is the CDS spread for the cou
Look under sovereign ratings)
class. I compute these by averaging CDS spreads and sovereign US$ bond spreads by ratings class, at the start of every year.
vereign rating or a sovereign CDS spread. Try the PRS worksheet in this spreadsheet for an alternate estimate.
mium. To make this choice, go into the ERP worksheet and set cell E5 to 1.00.
et, relative to the default spread. I used the ratio of the S&P Emerging Market Equity Index std deviation to the BAML Emerging
Govt Bond" in this spreadsheet. Set cell E5 in the ERP worksheet to that number.
CDS spread, I subtracted out the US CDS spread from the CDS for other markets.
ry that has a CDS spread lower than the US will have a zero country risk premium and end up with a total equity risk premium e
umber to get a country risk premium. The default scaling is set at the my most recent year's estimate, but you can change it to
ums by region
http://www.data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/GDP-ranking-table
apers.cfm?abstract_id=4066060
?abstract_id=4161010
atch?v=aIRPvY2SQ94
atch?v=D3IGn6tH03c
oad the excel spreadsheet containing the implied premium
To look up the equity risk premium for a region, use this worksheet
Region Caribbean
To construct your own regional ERP, use the data on GDP and ERP for countries in the Regional Weighted Averages
For countries not on the list above, try this frontier market list
Country Korea, D.P.R.
Index: ICE BofA Public Sector Issuers Emerg Mkts Index Option-Adjusted SIndex:
Source: FRED (Federal Reserve St. Louis Datasets) Source:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLEMPBPUBSICRPIEY
Period Five years (Jan 1, 2018 - Dec 30, 2022) Period
Interval Daily Interval
In local currency
0.78%
1.73%
6.55%
0.34%
0.24%
2.78%
0.37%
3.52%
1.50%
6.68%
0.36%
1.76%
1.11%
3.65%
4.35%
1.34%
1.33%
0.62%
0.23%
1.26%
16.93%
8.01%
27.46%
1.76%
0.34%
0.42%
0.28%
1.97%
2.28%
0.71%
2.43%
0.73%
1.67%
1.75%
4.69%
0.43%
0.67%
1.84%
0.31%
2.70%
7.60%
0.68%
0.79%
1.37%
1.45%
1.24%
2.11%
2.53%
3.84%
0.26%
0.39%
6.27%
8.52%
0.28%
2.37%
NA
1.79%
1.94%
1.64%
1.45%
0.81%
0.79%
3.17%
NA
5.42%
0.96%
5.39%
2.93%
0.75%
1.00%
3.51%
0.82%
0.26%
0.17%
0.87%
8.69%
5.30%
0.36%
0.32%
1.43%
2.07%
CDS Spread
Country Moody's rating (7/1/22) CDS Spread adj for US
Abu Dhabi Aa2 0.78% 0.46%
Albania B1 NA NA
Andorra (Principality of Baa2 NA NA
Angola B3 6.55% 6.23%
Argentina Ca NA NA
Armenia Ba3 NA NA
Aruba Baa2 NA NA
Australia Aaa 0.34% 0.02%
Austria Aa1 0.24% 0.00%
Azerbaijan Ba1 NA NA
Bahamas B1 NA NA
Bahrain B2 2.78% 2.46%
Bangladesh Ba3 NA NA
Barbados Caa1 NA NA
Belarus Ca NA NA
Belgium Aa3 0.37% 0.05%
Belize Caa2 NA NA
Benin B1 NA NA
Bermuda A2 NA NA
Bolivia B2 NA NA
Bosnia and Herzegovin B3 NA NA
Botswana A3 NA NA
Brazil Ba2 3.52% 3.20%
Bulgaria Baa1 1.50% 1.18%
Burkina Faso Caa1 NA NA
Cambodia B2 NA NA
Cameroon B2 6.68% 6.36%
Canada Aaa 0.36% 0.04%
Cape Verde B3 NA NA
Cayman Islands Aa3 NA NA
Chile A2 1.76% 1.44%
China A1 1.11% 0.79%
Colombia Baa2 3.65% 3.33%
Congo (Democratic Rep B3 NA NA
Congo (Republic of) Caa2 NA NA
Cook Islands B1 NA NA
Costa Rica B2 4.35% 4.03%
Côte d'Ivoire Ba3 NA NA
Croatia Baa2 1.34% 1.02%
Cuba Ca NA NA
Curacao Baa2 NA NA
Cyprus Ba1 1.33% 1.01%
Czech Republic Aa3 0.62% 0.30%
Denmark Aaa 0.23% 0.00%
Dominican Republic Ba3 NA NA
Ecuador Caa3 16.93% 16.61%
Egypt B2 8.01% 7.69%
El Salvador Caa3 27.46% 27.14%
Estonia A1 1.76% 1.44%
Ethiopia Caa2 28.33% 28.01%
Fiji B1 NA NA
Finland Aa1 0.34% 0.02%
France Aa2 0.42% 0.10%
Gabon Caa1 NA NA
Georgia Ba2 NA NA
Germany Aaa 0.28% 0.00%
Ghana Ca NA NA
Greece Ba3 1.97% 1.65%
Guatemala Ba1 NA NA
Guernsey (States of) Aaa NA NA
Honduras B1 NA NA
Hong Kong Aa3 0.71% 0.39%
Hungary Baa2 2.43% 2.11%
Iceland A2 0.73% 0.41%
India Baa3 1.67% 1.35%
Indonesia Baa2 1.75% 1.43%
Iraq Caa1 4.69% 4.37%
Ireland A1 0.43% 0.11%
Isle of Man Aa3 NA NA
Israel A1 0.67% 0.35%
Italy Baa3 1.84% 1.52%
Jamaica B2 NA NA
Japan A1 0.31% 0.00%
Jersey (States of) Aaa NA NA
Jordan B1 NA NA
Kazakhstan Baa2 2.70% 2.38%
Kenya B2 7.60% 7.28%
Korea Aa2 0.68% 0.36%
Kuwait A1 0.79% 0.47%
Kyrgyzstan B3 NA NA
Laos Caa3 NA NA
Latvia A3 1.37% 1.05%
Lebanon C NA NA
Liechtenstein Aaa NA NA
Lithuania A2 1.45% 1.13%
Luxembourg Aaa NA NA
Macao Aa3 NA NA
Macedonia Ba3 NA NA
Malaysia A3 1.24% 0.92%
Maldives Caa1 NA NA
Mali Caa2 NA NA
Malta A2 NA NA
Mauritius Baa3 NA NA
Mexico Baa2 2.11% 1.79%
Moldova B3 NA NA
Mongolia B3 NA NA
Montenegro B1 NA NA
Montserrat Baa3 NA NA
Morocco Ba1 2.53% 2.21%
Mozambique Caa2 NA NA
Namibia B1 NA NA
Netherlands Aaa 0.26% 0.00%
New Zealand Aaa 0.39% 0.07%
Nicaragua B3 6.27% 5.95%
Niger B3 NA NA
Nigeria B3 8.52% 8.20%
Norway Aaa 0.28% 0.00%
Oman Ba3 2.37% 2.05%
Pakistan Caa1 NA NA
Panama Baa2 1.79% 1.47%
Papua New Guinea B2 NA NA
Paraguay Ba1 NA NA
Peru Baa1 1.94% 1.62%
Philippines Baa2 1.64% 1.32%
Poland A2 1.45% 1.13%
Portugal Baa2 0.81% 0.49%
Qatar Aa3 0.79% 0.47%
Ras Al Khaimah (Emirat A3 NA NA
Romania Baa3 3.17% 2.85%
Russia Caa1 NA NA
Rwanda B2 5.42% 5.10%
Saudi Arabia A1 0.96% 0.64%
Senegal Ba3 5.39% 5.07%
Serbia Ba2 2.93% 2.61%
Sharjah Ba1 NA NA
Singapore Aaa NA NA
Slovakia A2 0.75% 0.43%
Slovenia A3 1.00% 0.68%
Solomon Islands Caa1 NA NA
South Africa Ba2 3.51% 3.19%
Spain Baa1 0.82% 0.50%
Sri Lanka Ca NA NA
St. Maarten Ba2 NA NA
St. Vincent & the Gren B3 NA NA
Suriname Caa3 NA NA
Swaziland B3 NA NA
Sweden Aaa 0.26% 0.00%
Switzerland Aaa 0.17% 0.00%
Taiwan Aa3 NA NA
Tajikistan B3 NA NA
Tanzania B2 NA NA
Thailand Baa1 0.87% 0.55%
Togo B3 NA NA
Trinidad and Tobago Ba2 NA NA
Tunisia Caa1 8.69% 8.37%
Turkey B3 5.30% 4.98%
Turks and Caicos Island Baa1 NA NA
Uganda B2 NA NA
Ukraine Caa3 NA NA
United Arab Emirates Aa2 NA NA
United Kingdom Aa3 0.36% 0.04%
United States Aaa 0.32% 0.00%
Uruguay Baa2 1.43% 1.11%
Uzbekistan B1 NA NA
Venezuela C NA NA
Vietnam Ba2 2.07% 1.75%
Zambia Ca NA NA
CDS
Spread
net of
Country ### US
Abu Dhabi 0.78% 0.46%
Algeria 1.73% 1.41%
Angola 6.55% 6.23%
Argentina NA #VALUE!
Australia 0.34% 0.02%
Austria 0.24% 0.00%
Bahrain 2.78% 2.46%
Belgium 0.37% 0.05%
Brazil 3.52% 3.20%
Bulgaria 1.50% 1.18%
Cameroon 6.68% 6.36%
Canada 0.36% 0.04%
Chile 1.76% 1.44%
China 1.11% 0.79%
Colombia 3.65% 3.33%
Costa Rica 4.35% 4.03%
Croatia 1.34% 1.02%
Cyprus 1.33% 1.01%
Czech Republic 0.62% 0.30%
Denmark 0.23% 0.00%
Dubai 1.26% 0.94%
Ecuador 16.93% 16.61%
Egypt 8.01% 7.69%
El Salvador 27.46% 27.14%
Estonia 1.76% 1.44%
Ethiopia 28.33% 28.01%
Finland 0.34% 0.02%
France 0.42% 0.10%
Germany 0.28% 0.00%
Greece 1.97% 1.65%
Guatamela 2.28% 1.96%
Hong Kong 0.71% 0.39%
Hungary 2.43% 2.11%
Iceland 0.73% 0.41%
India 1.67% 1.35%
Indonesia 1.75% 1.43%
Iraq 4.69% 4.37%
Ireland 0.43% 0.11%
Israel 0.67% 0.35%
Italy 1.84% 1.52%
Japan 0.31% 0.00%
Kazakhstan 2.70% 2.38%
Kenya 7.60% 7.28%
Korea 0.68% 0.36%
Kuwait 0.79% 0.47%
Latvia 1.37% 1.05%
Lebanon NA NA
Lithuania 1.45% 1.13%
Malaysia 1.24% 0.92%
Mexico 2.11% 1.79%
Morocco 2.53% 2.21%
Namibia 3.84% 3.52%
Netherlands 0.26% 0.00%
New Zealand 0.39% 0.07%
Nicaragua 6.27% 5.95%
Nigeria 8.52% 8.20%
Norway 0.28% 0.00%
Oman 2.37% 2.05%
Pakistan NA NA
Panama 1.79% 1.47%
Peru 1.94% 1.62%
Philippines 1.64% 1.32%
Poland 1.45% 1.13%
Portugal 0.81% 0.49%
Qatar 0.79% 0.47%
Romania 3.17% 2.85%
Russia NA NA
Rwanda 5.42% 5.10%
Saudi Arabia 0.96% 0.64%
Senegal 5.39% 5.07%
Serbia 2.93% 2.61%
Slovakia 0.75% 0.43%
Slovenia 1.00% 0.68%
South Africa 3.51% 3.19%
Spain 0.82% 0.50%
Sri Lanka NA NA
Sweden 0.26% 0.00%
Switzerland 0.17% 0.00%
Thailand 0.87% 0.55%
Tunisia 8.69% 8.37%
Turkey 5.30% 4.98%
Ukraine NA NA
United Kingdom 0.36% 0.04%
United States 0.32% 0.00%
Uruguay 1.43% 1.11%
Venezuela NA NA
Vietnam 2.07% 1.75%
Zambia NA NA
Date: Feb-22
Std deviation in Equities
Country sBond sEquity/ sBond s (CDS)
(weekly)
Algeria NA NA NA 0.17%
Angola NA NA NA 0.68%
Argentina 53.16% NA NA 3.70%
Bahrain 12.76% NA NA 0.45%
Banglades 13.55% NA NA NA
h
Bosnia 15.69% NA NA NA
Botswana 2.91% NA NA NA
Brazil 45.37% 26.62% 1.70 0.38%
Bulgaria 19.80% 5.37% 3.69 0.43%
Cameroo NA NA NA 0.34%
n
Chile 35.37% 31.58% 1.12 0.31%
China 25.06% NA NA 0.51%
Colombia 37.17% 31.13% 1.19 0.41%
Costa Rica 19.85% NA NA 0.39%
Croatia 22.53% NA NA 0.35%
Cyprus 19.12% 4.83% 3.96 0.49%
Czech
Republic 25.16% 4.64% 5.42 0.43%
Samoa 788
Algeria 167983.141738311 San Marino 1,545
Switzerland 812,867
Tajikistan 8,746
Tanzania 67,775
Thailand 505,982
Timor-Leste 1,959
Togo 8,413
Tonga 489
Trinidad and Tobago 21,392
Tunisia 46,840
Türkiye 815,272
Turkmenistan 45,231
Turks and Caicos Islands 943
Tuvalu 63
Uganda 40,435
Ukraine 200,086
United Arab Emirates 358,869
Uruguay 59,320
Uzbekistan 69,239
Vanuatu 983
Vietnam 362,638
Vietnam $ 261.90
Virgin Islands (U.S.) 4,204
Zambia $ 23.10
Zimbabwe 26,218
Zimbabwe $ 21.40
Country S&P Rating
Moody's Rating Country Moody's
Abu Dhabi NA Aa2 Abu Dhabi Aa2
Albania B+ B1 Albania B1
Andorra (Principality of) BBB+ Baa2 Andorra Baa2
Angola B- B3 Angola B3
Belarus SD Ca Belarus Ca
Benin B+ B1 Benin B1
Bermuda A+ A2 Bermuda A2
Bolivia B B2 Bolivia B2
Chile A A2 Chile A2
China A+ A1 China A1
Colombia BB+ Baa2 Colombia Baa2
Congo (Democratic Repub B- B3 Congo (Democratic Republ B3
Cuba NA Ca Cuba Ca
Egypt B B2 Egypt B2
Fiji B+ B1 Fiji B1
Finland AA+ Aa1 Finland Aa1
Ghana SD Ca Ghana Ca
Greece BB+ Ba3 Greece Ba3
Guatemala BB- Ba1 Guatemala Ba1
Iceland A A2 Iceland A2
India BBB- Baa3 India Baa3
Indonesia BBB Baa2 Indonesia Baa2
Iraq B- Caa1 Iraq Caa1
Ireland AA- A1 Ireland A1
Jamaica B+ B2 Jamaica B2
Japan A+ A1 Japan A1
Jordan B+ B1 Jordan B1
Kazakhstan BBB- Baa2 Kazakhstan Baa2
Kenya B B2 Kenya B2
Kuwait A+ A1 Kuwait A1
Montenegro B B1 Montenegro B1
Nicaragua B B3 Nicaragua B3
Niger NA B3 Niger B3
Nigeria B- B3 Nigeria B3
Norway AAA Aaa Norway Aaa
Poland A- A2 Poland A2
Rwanda NA B2 Rwanda B2
Togo B B3 Togo B3
Trinidad and Tobago BBB- Ba2 Trinidad and Tobago Ba2
Tunisia N/A Caa1 Tunisia Caa1
Turkey B B3 Turkey B3
Turks and Caicos Islands BBB+ Baa1 Turks and Caicos Islands NA
Uganda B B2 Uganda B2
Venezuela NA C Venezuela C