Peramalan Harga Komodita

Mounth Harga Ex. Smoothing e |e|2 %e MAD MSE MAPE

1 75.84 74.79 1.05 1.11 1.39

2 87.79 80.08 7.71 59.41 8.78
3 84.47 85.75 1.28 1.64 1.52
4 86.68 91.82 5.14 26.44 5.93
5.20 37.39 5.28
5 89.74 98.32 8.58 73.65 9.56
6 100.33 105.28 4.95 24.53 4.94
7 115.35 112.74 2.61 6.83 2.27
8 130.99 120.72 10.27 105.53 7.84
9 123.17 129.26
10 127.08 138.41
11 125.13 148.21
12 126.10 158.71

140

120 f(x) = 69.8432853328227 exp( 0.0683509663228784 x )

100

080
Column B
Exponential (Column B)
060

040

020

-
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Komoditas Batubara Tahun 2021 untuk
Moving Average
Mounth Harga e |e|2 %e MAD MSE
Orde 2
1 75.84
2 87.79
3 84.47 81.82 2.66 7.05 3.14
4 86.68 86.13 0.55 0.30 0.63
10.49 186.70
5 89.74 85.58 4.17 17.35 4.64
6 100.33 88.21 12.12 146.89 12.08
7 115.35 95.04 20.32 412.70 17.61
8 130.99 107.84 23.15 535.92 17.67
9
10
11
12

180

160

140

120
Harga Batubara (USD/ton)

100

080

060

040

020

-
0 2 4 6

B
020

-
0 2 4 6

B
2021 untuk bulan September, Oktober, N
Moving Average
MAPE Mounth Harga e |e|2 %e MAD MSE
Orde 3
1 75.84
2 87.79
3 84.47
4 86.68 82.70 3.98 15.84 4.59
9.30 14.61 318.31
5 89.74 86.31 3.43 11.74 3.82
6 100.33 86.96 13.37 178.67 13.32
7 115.35 92.25 23.10 533.61 20.03
8 130.99 101.81 29.18 851.67 22.28
9
10
11
12

Harga Aktual
Harga Ramalan

4 6 8 10 12

Bulan
4 6 8 10 12

Bulan
ktober, November dan Desember
MAPE Mounth Harga Metode Linear e |e|2 %e MAD

1 75.84 72.4622 3.38 11.40953284 4.45385

2 87.79 79.3014 8.49 72.05632996 9.669211
3 84.47 86.1406 1.67 2.79090436 1.977744
4 86.68 92.9798 6.30 39.68748004 7.267882
12.81 4.51
5 89.74 99.819 10.08 101.586241 11.23133
6 100.33 106.6582 (6.33) 40.04611524 -6.307386
7 115.35 113.4974 1.85 3.43212676 1.606068
8 130.99 120.3366 10.65 113.49493156 8.132987
9
10
11
12

140

120
f(x) = 6.83916666666667 x + 65.6225
100

080
Column AC
060 Linear (Column A

040

020

-
arga Aktual 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

arga Ramalan
er
MSE MAPE

48.06 4.75

Column AC
Linear (Column AC)