Feeding The Dragon Chinas January 2012 Commodity Trade Data

COMMODITIES RESEARCH 21 February 2012
FEEDING THE DRAGON

China’s January 2012 commodity trade data
Kevin Norrish
+44 (0)20 7773 0369
kevin.norrish@barcap.com
Gayle Berry
+44 (0)20 3134 1596
gayle.berry@barcap.com
Suki Cooper
+1 212 526 7896
suki.cooper@barcap.com
In last month’s Feeding the Dragon, we asked whether December’s very strong Chinese
commodity import data were a vote of confidence in the Chinese economy by its Amrita Sen
commodity consumers or a final blow-off before a steep fall in early 2012. +44 (0)20 3134 2266
amrita.sen@barcap.com
January’s data provide grounds for some cautious optimism that it was more of the
former than the latter. Although imports of most of the major commodities we track in
Nicholas Snowdon
this report were lower month-on-month (crude oil and corn being the only notable
+1 212 526 7279
exceptions), this is mainly explained by China’s New Year holiday hiatus, which always nicholas.snowdon@barcap.com
suppresses commodity import demand early in the year.
Sudakshina Unnikrishnan
Relative to the same period a year ago, there was a more mixed picture. The biggest
+44 (0)20 7773 3797
declines came in nickel, platinum, diesel, coffee, cotton and soybeans. The strongest
sudakshina.unnikrishnan@barcap.com
growth came in copper, zinc, cocoa, corn and sugar. Crude oil imports did not match
the double-digit growth rates registered in any of those markets, but still rose a very
Shiyang Wang
healthy 7% y/y, reaching their third highest levels ever.
+1 212 526 7464
The lack of clear patterns in the January commodity import data suggests that shiyang.wang@barcap.com
differences in stocking cycles are still having a significant effect on commodity trade
www.barcap.com
flows. The m/m decline in copper imports supports the view that inventories rose
toward the end of last year, reducing the need for imports in early 2012. That said, we
do not believe China has built anywhere near the stocks of copper that it had this time
last year and that suppressed import demand for most of the first half of 2011.
Meanwhile, in crude oil, we believe inventory rebuilding has only just begun and could
add significant extra oil demand over the next few months. In some key agricultural
commodities, notably corn and cotton, China is also in stockbuilding mode, and whilst
this is mainly focused on purchases from domestic producers, it is likely also boosting
import demand.
After a soft year overall for China’s commodities demand in 2011, we expect 2012 to be
better. While the trends in January need to be interpreted with caution, in our opinion
they suggest that China’s commodity importers have made a good start.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 9
Barclays Capital | Feeding the dragon
Base metals
Aluminium
Aluminium imports eased to 41Kt. Like copper, scrap imports fell sharply, down 40% y/y to
138Kt. We understand that another factor leading to weakness in scrap imports may be
difficulty in clearing scrap at ports due to authorities clamping down on registration
documents. The 9% y/y decline in exports of aluminium semis likely reflects weaker
external demand and supports anecdotal reports of weaker orders at fabricators in coastal
provinces. Although we do not have production data for January yet, we understand that
semis producers reduced production over the national holiday, while smelters continued to
operate. This exacerbated the spot surplus, leading to further builds in SHFE inventories,
which have risen more than 134Kt since the beginning of December, while provincial
inventories including SHFE stand at more than 750Kt. We understand that semis producers
are now ramping up production, though buying of primary metal remains cautious.
Copper
Within the copper trade data, we find the scrap import number to be of most interest. Scrap
imports fell to 229Kt (gross weight), the weakest since February 2009 when there was a
global shortage of scrap resulting from an extreme contraction in manufacturing activity.
China’s largest scrap supplier is Europe, but given the industrial recession the region is
currently experiencing, scrap supply to China could tighten. Subsequently, these copper
metal units would instead have to be sourced from either concentrate or refined metal.
Refined copper imports fell 18% m/m to 335Kt, yet were up 37% y/y, with some of this
metal going into merchant and exchange stocks, in our view. SHFE stocks have built by over
159Kt since the beginning of December, while we believe bonded warehouse and merchant
stocks to have risen more than 300Kt. This compares with the ~500Kt build in this inventory
during Q3 10 – Q1 11 to over 700Kt at the peak. These stock builds, together with weaker
physical premiums, tells us that there is more copper around than is needed, for now.
Though over the past couple of weeks, the contango in SHFE copper time spreads, both
nearby and further forward, has also tightened with the cash to three-month contango
more than halving from $125/t to $55/t. The SHFE/LME spread has also narrowed, rising to
7.2 from a nadir earlier in the month of 6.9. Copper concentrate imports were strong at
602Kt, and given the expected improvement in global mine output this year, we believe
concentrate imports in 2012 are likely to hit a record high. Overall, even with the build in
bonded and merchant copper inventory, we believe total Chinese inventory levels are lower
than a year ago, especially considering the draw in concentrate and scrap stocks. The rally
in LME copper prices over the past few weeks suggests that Chinese buyers will opt to run
down inventories and scale back imports in early 2012, but for how long will depend on the
strength of underlying demand and therefore how quickly recent stock builds are drawn
down. Our China copper market balance shows that even with much slower refined
demand growth and strong domestic mine production growth, China’s need for copper
imports in some form will continue to grow this year.
Lead
China remained a slight net importer of refined lead in January to the tune of 24t, the
weakest since October 2011. Concentrate imports at 89Kt (gross weight) were the lowest
since May 2011. This may partly reflect higher domestic mine production, though given that
the January data are skewed by the national holiday, we will not get the full picture until the
release of the February data.
21 February 2012 2
Nickel
Refined nickel net imports fell to 12Kt, the lowest since June 2011. We believe the strong
imports at the end of 2011 resulted in stockbuilds at merchants (by over 40Kt), and we
expect buyers to run down these inventories and scale back imports in early 2012, but for
how long will depend on the strength of underlying demand and therefore how quickly
recent stock builds are drawn down. Furthermore, domestic nickel prices continue to trade
at a discount to the LME, so there is little economic incentive to import refined metal
currently. On the positive side, we understand port ore stocks have been drawn down over
the past month, and January concentrate imports almost halved from December’s level.
Tin
Refined tin imports experienced the biggest m/m decline of all the base metals; at 1.7Kt,
they were half December’s level due to a collapse in the Chinese price premium, driven by a
softening in end-user demand.
Zinc
Refined zinc imports eased in January though remained strong at 48Kt, the second highest
since July 2009. This is set against a backdrop of rising domestic stocks leading us to believe
that it exacerbated a domestic surplus. Zinc concentrate imports meanwhile fell to 186Kt –
the weakest since June 2011.
Precious metals
Trade data for precious metals have kicked off the year on a mixed note, with silver and
platinum imports softer y/y but palladium showing signs of strength. Silver imports fell
47% y/y to 191.7 tonnes, the lowest in three years, while exports fell 39% y/y to 53.8 tonnes,
its lowest since the start of our database in January 2005. On a product basis, with the
exception of unwrought silver, imports were down y/y in powder, semi-manufactured and
jewellery form, with the steepest decline in semi-manufactured products at -58% y/y. With
the Lunar New Year falling in January this year, volume traded on the Shanghai Gold
Exchange was softer in January but is firmer thus far in February; however, volumes for the
year-to-date are marginally higher, up 2% y/y. While the investment interest is still present, it
is not as responsive as it was last year, but, more importantly, the industrial consumption has
also showed signs of slowing given the softer projections for consumption from the
photovoltaic sector. Platinum imports were also softer, down 37% y/y at 150koz, the lowest
since July last year, while imports into Hong Kong have also slowed as consumption has
eased, with a similar trend materialising from volume traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Volume traded is down 1% y/y for the year to date. Unsurprisingly, the strongest interest
was recorded in early January when the local price dipped below 300CNY/g; since then,
volumes have eased as the price has headed towards 350CNY/g and the discount to gold
triggering a muted response for now. While we do expect platinum’s discount to support
platinum jewellery consumption over the year, given healthy stock levels, platinum price dips
are likely to be supported rather than driving the price higher. According to the official data,
palladium imports were up 13.6% y/y, while our unrevised data show palladium imports
were also softer, albeit by a smaller margin in comparison to the rest of the sector at 13%
lower y/y. Palladium imports came in at 76.6koz, softer m/m and below 100koz. Underlying
demand from the auto sector also started the year on a softer note given the Lunar New Year
holiday, with sales down 26.7% y/y at 1.39mn units, the weakest month since July 2011 but
more than February last year when the Lunar New Year holiday took place. Our auto analysts
expect production for the full year to grow yet at a slower 4% y/y for Greater China and 8%
y/y in 2013, which bodes well for palladium. Although the data look weak initially, after
adjusting for the holidays, appetite remains healthy, although it is modestly softer y/y.
21 February 2012 3
Energy commodities
Oil
The final Chinese trade figures for January continued to highlight a robust underlying
economy. As always, production figures are missing, so apparent consumption cannot be
calculated. Crude oil imports came in at 5.528 mb/d, its third highest level ever, up 7.4% y/y,
with intake of Iranian volumes down 5% y/y to 0.49 mb/d. Sinopec has reduced its imports
of Iranian oil further to 285 thousand b/d, just half of its 2011 intake; thus, Chinese
purchases of Iranian oil are likely to decline further in the coming months. We believe that
China is likely to use discounted Iranian oil to fill tranches of its SPR, but Chinese refineries
are likely to reduce their purchases due to payment issues. Meanwhile, product imports
eased, with China becoming a small net exporter of diesel (11 thousand b/d) for the first
time since August. As domestic shortages that gripped the country in Q4 eased, together
with the holiday distortions that make it difficult to get a good picture before the averaged
January-February data is released, diesel demand in the country is likely to have moderated
in January. China remained a small net exporter of jet fuel, while fuel oil imports eased
slightly yet remained an elevated 227 thousand b/d. Naphtha demand was buoyant, with
imports rising to the highest levels since December last year, once again pointing to an
improving petrochemical sector. Indeed, with the PBoC announcing a 50bp cut to banks’
reserve requirement ratios, this is likely to be further supportive of stronger petrochemical
demand, where credit constraints are essential. It also points to China’s willingness to
loosen policy, which in our opinion is supportive of Asia-Pacific growth. Our economists
expect another two to three RRR cuts of 50bp each this year, most likely front-loaded.
Overall, relative to consensus expectations, we believe Chinese oil demand is already
performing more robustly, a trend we expect to continue through the year, supported
further by restocking demand. China’s crude and product inventories increased 1.2% and
14% m/m, respectively, in January, with diesel inventories rising a sharp 29.1%. Gasoline
inventories declined 4% m/m.
Coal
Chinese coal imports edged slightly lower y/y in January, breaking an eight-month streak of
double-digit growth. China imported 16 Mt of coal, 1% lower y/y. On the other hand,
thermal-coal imports (steam plus Vietnamese anthracites) grew 14% y/y to 11.7 Mt,
partially due to the weakness in January last year when international coal prices skyrocketed
as a result of the Queensland flooding. Coking coal imports dropped dramatically, by 38%
y/y. Chinese imports of Indonesia coal edged slightly lower by 0.03%. On the other hand,
coals sourced from Australia grew 8.12% y/y, while South African coal exports to China
surged 273% as Chinese buyers took advantage of the weak prices in most of December
and early January in the FOB Richards Bay and Newcastle markets. However, against the
backdrop of healthy imports, the Chinese domestic market continues to show signs of
weakness even outside of the seasonal slowdown. Domestic prices continued to fall below
the price cap imposed on 1 January, with the 5500kcal/kg NAR coals from Datong dropping
to the lowest level since March 2011. With high inventories at ports and the stockyards of
end-user utilities, the Chinese market remains well stocked, while the southern region
seeming to have over-imported coal tonnages. Currently, local officials are monitoring the
situation in the Southern consuming ports and preventing traders who do not already have
a buyer lined up to take delivery of coals (Platts). We believe domestic prices still have room
to fall further as the cost floor of domestic Chinese coals is still low compared with spot
prices. The Daqin line maintenance in April should come to provide at least some support
for domestic prices.
21 February 2012 4
Natural gas
Chinese January LNG imports dropped 13% m/m in January to 2.01 Bcf/d, but grew 60%
y/y. Pipeline imports gained 84% y/y, but only edged 1% m/m higher, as Turkmenistan
pipeline exports to China surged in January to 1.59 bcf/d. LNG imports came from Australia,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar, Russia, Yemen and, for the first time, Algeria. LNG imports grew
only for one (Fuzhou) out of the five LNG terminals in China, with most of the y/y increases
of LNG imports coming from the Nanjing and Dalian LNG terminals, which came on stream
in 2011. The price of LNG imports averaged $11.51/MMBtu in January, while Yemen LNG,
the most expensive source, averaged $18.48/MMBtu. The price for Turkmenistan imports
edged higher to $10.33/MMBtu.
Agriculture
Latest China Customs agricultural trade data for January reflected broadly softer imports,
with pockets of strength in grains (primarily corn) and soybean oil imports. In contrast, the
most marked weakness was in sugar and cotton imports, which fell sharply from December
2011’s record highs. While most imports were weaker m/m, part of this is attributable to
strong base effects, with Chinese imports having been very elevated in December 2011.
Looking ahead, China’s domestic crop purchases and the need to replenish reserves bode
well for import demand, especially because string underlying consumption trends remain in
place. A notable exception to the broadly softer tone were China’s corn imports, which
remained strong, coming in at 751Kt, up 32% m/m and up a marked 39889% y/y. Exports
at 2.3Kt were almost flat m/m and up 261% y/y, which kept China a sizeable net importer
in January, at 749Kt. Corn has been a market in which China’s import reliance has risen
sharply. Despite expectations of a record harvest, imports have been firm over recent
months, while China has been stockpiling corn by buying from farmers domestically.
China’s wheat imports at 212.6Kt were down a modest 2% m/m from December 2011,
which was the loftiest level of imports since June 2011, but remain elevated compared with
historical levels. Imports for soybeans, in which China is the world’s largest consumer and
importer, were lower m/m for a second consecutive month, but at 4.6Kt were in line with
2011 averages. Soybean imports for much of 2011 were subdued owing to China’s release
of soybeans from state reserves, the cap on retail prices for edible cooking oils and negative
crushing margins. We expect an uptick in China’s soybean imports in 2012. Across
vegetable oils, import demand for soybean oil picked up in January, continuing a move up in
December and, at 128.5Kt, was its highest level since August 2011. Palm oil imports in
contrast declined 33% m/m from December’s 659Kt (the highest level since September
2009) to total 443Kt, although still up y/y. China’s cotton imports fell again in January to
326.5Kt, after posting a record high in December at 790Kt. Finally, across soft commodities,
China’s sugar imports dropped 71% m/m to 141.8Kt from December’s record high of
494.5Kt. Sugar exports rose 18% m/m to 4.7Kt, and while China stayed a sugar importer,
net imports of 137Kt were the weakest monthly total since June 2011.
21 February 2012 5
China’s metals trade data

Kt % change % change 2012 2011 5 year monthly
Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11
Aluminium Y/Y YTD monthly average monthly average average
Alumina imports 447 30% 201 227 30% 447 157 433
Alumina production N/A N/A 2,621 2,638 N/A N/A 2,834 1,801
Primary imports 47 38% 51 22 38% 47 19 38
Primary exports 16 N/A 5 22 N/A 16 7 22
Net trade -31 -8% -46 0 -8% -31 -12 -15
Primary output N/A N/A 1,586 1,549 N/A N/A 1,564 1,088
Primary app. consumption N/A N/A 1,603 1,482 N/A N/A 1,595 1,097
Semis imports 38 -28% 44 46 -28% 38 48 53
Semis exports 200 -9% 210 230 -9% 200 251 143
Net semis trade 162 -3% 166 184 -3% 162 203 90
Semis output N/A N/A 1,991 2,128 N/A N/A 1,984 1,178
Semis app. consumption N/A N/A 1,825 1,944 N/A N/A 1,782 1,088
Copper
Concentrate imports (gross weight) 602 5% 563 673 5% 602 533 433
Conc. imports (est. metal content 28%) 168 5% 158 188 5% 168 149 121
Concentrate output N/A N/A 123 108 N/A N/A 104 75
Refined imports 335 37% 407 344 37% 335 236 165
Refined exports 0 -100% 0 2 -100% 0 13 10
Net trade -335 51% -407 -342 51% -335 -223 -156
Refined output N/A N/A 453 429 N/A N/A 436 316
Refined app. consumption N/A N/A 711 669 N/A N/A 647 462
Scrap imports 229 -37% 447 433 -37% 229 391 408
Lead
Concentrate imports (gross weight) 89 -46% 138 136 -46% 89 120 124
Conc. imports (est. metal content 55%) 49 -46% 76 75 -46% 49 66 68
Refined imports 1 17% 0 1 17% 1 1 5
Refined exports 0 -85% 0 0 -85% 0 1 14
Net trade 0 N/A 0 -1 N/A 0 0 10
Nickel
Concentrate imports (gross weight) 2,771 48% 4,372 6,305 48% 2,771 4,021 1,208
Refined imports 13 -23% 19 19 -23% 13 18 13
Refined exports 1 -62% 1 3 -62% 1 3 2
Net trade 12 -19% 18 16 -19% 12 15 10
Tin
Refined Imports 2 N/A 3 4 N/A 2 2 2
Refined Exports 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 0 0 1
Net trade -2 N/A -3 -4 N/A -2 -2 -1
Zinc
Concentrate Imports (gross weight) 186 -37% 279 261 -37% 186 245 207
Conc.imports (est. metal content 50%) 93 -37% 139 130 -37% 93 122 104
Refined Imports 48 47% 54 26 47% 48 29 27
Refined Exports 1 -78% 0 1 -78% 1 4 12
Net trade -47 56% -54 -25 56% -47 -25 -15
Precious metals
Platinum Imports (000 ounces) 150 -37% 245 165 -37% 150 213 123
Palladium Imports (000 ounces) 77 -13% 104 64 -13% 77 81 54
Silver Imports (tonnes) 192 -47% 235 232 -47% 192 293 453
Silver Exports (tonnes) 54 -39% 210 170 -39% 54 107 295
Net Silver exports -138 -49% -25 -62 -49% -138 -186 -158
Note: There are three Chinese trade data releases. The data in the table above are from the third and final dataset. Net trade data: A positive figure denotes net exports
and a negative figure denotes net imports. Source: China Customs, Barclays Capital
21 February 2012 6
China’s energy commodity trade data

000 b/d
Crude oil Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 5527 5176 5536 7% 7% 60800 6%
Exports 74 78 32 12% 12% 606 -17%
Net trade -5453 -5098 -5504 - - -60194 -
Gasoline Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 0 0 0 - - 0 21991%
Exports 77 53 100 -49% -49% 1138 -21%
Net trade 77 53 100 - - 1138 -
Diesel Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 13 66 51 -72% -72% 602 36%
Exports 24 15 33 0% 0% 502 -56%
Net trade 11 -51 -18 - - -100 -
Jet fuel Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 111 168 155 -39% -39% 1569 -5%
Exports 127 174 98 7% 7% 1669 8%
Net trade 16 6 -57 - - 100 -
Fuel oil Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 426 571 461 -19% -19% 5838 18%
Exports 199 270 270 -2% -2% 2687 25%
Net trade -227 -301 -191 - - -3151 -
LPG Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 69 128 124 28% 28% 1296 6%
Exports 27 38 32 -40% -40% 445 28%
Net trade -42 -90 -92 - - -851 -
Naphtha Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 105 65 87 33% 33% 725 -16%
Exports 25 9 9 49% 49% 147 -43%
Net trade -80 -56 -78 - - -578 -
000 tonnes
Coal Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 16377 21383 22142 0% 0% 182395 11%
Exports 1005 805 943 -30% -30% 14658 -23%
Net trade -15371 -20578 -21200 - - -167737 -
tonnes
Natural gas Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
LNG imports 1303252 1511720 1294994 60% 60% 12212646 31%
Pipeline imports 1028743 1014664 993134 84% 84% 10366492 300%
Note: There are three Chinese trade data releases. The data in the table above are from the third and final dataset. The 2011 figure is an annual total. Net trade data: A
positive figure denotes net exports and a negative figure denotes net imports. Source: Customs, Barclays Capital
21 February 2012 7
China’s agriculture trade data

000 tonnes
Cocoa Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 4.3 9.2 3.0 170% 170% 38.9 31%
Coffee Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 3.3 2.9 2.9 -12% -12% 43.0 41.9%
Exports 3.6 4.2 0.8 -15% -15% 37.9 15.2%
Net Trade 0.3 1.2 -2.2 - - -5.1 -
Corn Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 751.1 569.8 244.8 39889% 39889% 1753 11%
Exports 2.3 2.0 1.9 261% 261% 136 7%
Net Trade -748.8 -567.7 -242.8 - - -1617 -
Cotton Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 326.5 790.4 378.2 -17% -17% 3364 19%
Exports 0.0 0.2 0.1 -100% -100% 25.7 298%
Net Trade -326.5 -790.2 -378.1 - - -3338 -
Palm oil Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 443.2 658.7 629.2 7% 7% 5913 4%
Sugar Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 141.8 494.5 418.4 887% 887% 2920 65%
Exports 4.7 4.0 4.3 -34% -34% 59 -37%
Net Trade -137.1 -490.6 -414.1 - - -2860 -
Soybeans Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 4608.2 5421.6 5696.4 -10% -10% 52634 -4%
Exports 12.4 27.5 14.4 -14% -14% 208 27%
Net Trade -4595.8 -5394.1 -5682.0 - - -52426 -
Soyoil Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 128.5 90.7 76.9 -20% -20% 1143 -15%
Exports 8.9 3.4 4.9 189% 189% 51 -14%
Net Trade -119.6 -87.3 -72.0 - - -1092 -
Wheat Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Jan Y/Y chge YTD chge 2011 2011 Y/Y chge
Imports 212.6 217.5 7.7 258% 258% 1249 2%
Exports 0.0 6.6 5.1 -100% -100% 39.8 3401118%
Net Trade -212.6 -210.9 -2.5 - - - -
Note: There are three Chinese trade data releases. The data in the table above are from the third and final dataset. The 2011 figure is an annual total. Net trade data: A
positive figure denotes net exports and a negative figure denotes net imports. Source: China Customs, Barclays Capital
21 February 2012 8
COMMODITIES RESEARCH ANALYSTS
Barclays Capital
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Gayle Berry Suki Cooper Helima Croft Paul Horsnell
Commodities Research Commodities Research Commodities Research Commodities Research
+44 (0)20 3134 1596 +1 212 526 7896 +1 212 526 0764 +44 (0)20 7773 1145
gayle.berry@barcap.com suki.cooper@barcap.com helima.croft@barcap.com paul.horsnell@barcap.com
Miswin Mahesh Roxana Mohammadian-Molina Kevin Norrish Amrita Sen
+44 (0)20 77734291 +44 (0)20 7773 2117 +44 (0)20 7773 0369 +44 (0)20 3134 2266
miswin.mahesh@barcap.com roxana.mohammadian-molina@barcap.com kevin.norrish@barcap.com amrita.sen@barcap.com
Trevor Sikorski Nicholas Snowdon Kate Tang Sudakshina Unnikrishnan
+44 (0)20 3134 0160 +1 212 526 7279 +44 (0)20 7773 0930 +44 (0)20 7773 3797
trevor.sikorski@barcap.com nicholas.snowdon@barcap.com kate.tang@barcap.com sudakshina.unnikrishnan@barcap.com
Shiyang Wang Michael Zenker
Commodities Research Commodities Research
+1 212 526 7464 +1 212 526 2081
shiyang.wang@barcap.com michael.zenker@barcap.com
Commodities Sales
Craig Shapiro Martin Woodhams
Head of Commodities Sales Commodity Structuring
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craig.shapiro@barcap.com martin.woodhams@barcap.com
21 February 2012 9
Analyst Certification(s)
We, Gayle Berry, Suki Cooper, Kevin Norrish, Amrita Sen, Nicholas Snowdon, Sudakshina Unnikrishnan and Shiyang Wang, hereby certify (1) that the views
expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report
and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
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Feeding The Dragon Chinas January 2012 Commodity Trade Data

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COMMODITIES RESEARCH 21 February 2012

FEEDING THE DRAGON

China’s metals trade data

China’s energy commodity trade data

China’s agriculture trade data

COMMODITIES RESEARCH ANALYSTS

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