Weekly Oil Data Review Japan One Year On

COMMODITIES RESEARCH 14 March 2012
WEEKLY OIL DATA REVIEW

Japan: One year on
Paul Horsnell
+44 (0)20 7773 1145
paul.horsnell@barcap.com
Amrita Sen
+44 (0)20 3134 2266
amrita.sen@barcap.com
www.barcap.com
Japan’s use of fossil fuels in power generation has increased sharply over the past year,
with only two of 54 nuclear reactors currently in operation. Oil-fired generation – both
using fuel oil and direct-burning of crude oil – has increased sharply, and we expect oil
to take a further increased share of Japan’s power market in 2012.
Global benchmark oil prices have reached their highest levels in dollar terms since 2008,
and have set all-time highs in euro terms. Thus far, OPEC production of above 31 mb/d
of crude oil and 37 mb/d of total liquids has only dampened prices, although we do
expect Q1 to result in a slight global inventory build, ending a sequence of eight
successive quarterly inventory draws.
Crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma has increased sharply again, bringing the
cumulative rise over the past three weeks to 6.5 mb. The current imbalance at Cushing
appears severe enough to justify further deep discounting of WTI relative to Brent. By
contrast, US oil product inventories have fallen, with diesel inventories falling a steep
3.8 mb, bringing distillate inventories as a whole below their five-year average.
Figure 1: US Department of Energy weekly data summary (mb)

dif f e re nc e
1 we e k 4 we e k 1 ye a r f ro m 5 - ye a r
09 Mar 2012 inv e nt o rie s c ha nge c ha nge c ha nge a v e ra ge
Crude oil 347.45 1.75 8.38 -3.2 10.9

Gasoline 228.12 -1.41 -4.05 3.1 5.2
Total distillate 134.81 -4.68 -8.90 -17.8 -1.8
Heating oil 29.69 -0.88 -0.81 -7.3 -7.6
Diesel 105.12 -3.80 -8.10 -10.5 5.9
Jet kerosene 40.95 0.18 -1.14 0.4 0.1
Residual fuel oil 35.25 1.06 2.98 -0.5 -1.7
Unfinished oils 83.32 -0.39 3.56 0.8 -2.6
Other oils 183.71 -0.96 -2.88 31.1 26.9
Total commercial inventories 1053.60 -4.44 -2.07 13.9 37.1
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 37
Barclays Capital | Weekly Oil Data Review
A radical shift in Japan’s It is one year on from Great East Japan Earthquake, and as of this moment, Japan has just
energy profile two of its 54 nuclear reactors running. The earthquake destroyed four nuclear reactors at
the Fukushima-Daichi nuclear power station and set in train a national debate on the future
of nuclear. Since then, Japan has, at least temporarily, shut down its remaining nuclear
plants as it seeks a consensus on whether or not to turn nuclear power off permanently.
Before the disaster, Japan generated a third of its electricity from nuclear stations, and the
government had plans to install an additional 14 reactors to bring nuclear’s share of the
energy mix to 50%. Instead, today, Japan consumes about 25% more LNG than it did a year
ago, it relies more heavily on coal and its oil consumption has risen by about 9% y/y. The
initial aftermath of the earthquake was severe economic and infrastructural damage, with
oil demand falling by around 190 thousand b/d, on average, in the first three months
following March. While greater power demand was met by higher fuel oil and direct crude
burning, weakness in industrial fuels such as gasoline, naphtha, diesel and jet fuel
dominated the strength elsewhere. With economic activity picking up slowly, industrial
production improving, the declines in oil demand started to ease in Q4. Much as in the past,
fuel switching from lost nuclear capacity has started to buoy Japanese oil demand to the
extent of completely mitigating losses from economic activity.
Public votes have primarily As we highlighted in the Weekly Oil Data Review: The chain, 4 May 2011, “Over the past
been opposed to further decade, both in 2003 and 2004, when earthquakes of magnitude 7 hit various parts of
use of nuclear Japan, only small outages in nuclear plants occurred. Fuel oil and direct crude oil burn
increased in the immediate aftermath, while the effect on overall oil demand from losses
elsewhere was negligible. The August 2005 Miyagi earthquake and the July 2007 Niigataken
Chuetsu-Oki earthquake had a far greater effect on oil demand. In the case of the former,
2GW of nuclear capacity was shut down for five-seven months, which resulted in an
increase of 160 thousand b/d in direct crude burn, 69 thousand b/d in fuel oil demand and
a significant 618 thousand b/d in kerosene demand over that time period. The 21-month
outage of the 8.2 GW Kashiwazaki Kariwa plant following the 2007 earthquake, fuel oil and
direct crude burning rose by around 125-200 thousand b/d in the seven months in the
aftermath of the event versus an otherwise declining trend for both fuels”. However, the
effect of Fukushima Daichi has been very different. While the basic equation of higher fuel
switching mitigating losses elsewhere still holds, the effect this time around may well be
permanent. For the first time in decades, Japan’s trade surplus is gone, and the country now
spends more on imports than it earns from exports, with fossil fuel having been the key
swing factor. At this stage in the process, the decision on whether switch nuclear plants
back on is not fully with the government – de facto, it has been public votes that have been
the key determinant.
Neither the Japanese government nor environmentalist groups are happy about relying
more heavily on fossil fuels. There are strong advocates for the adoption of a new energy
mix that relies mostly on wind and solar power. However, renewables currently only
account for 2% of Japan’s electricity output (nuclear alone used to provide 30%). Long
coastlines and plentiful availability of solar power should in theory be able to provide Japan
with substantial renewable power generation, although the cost of renewable in Japan can
be high. While the jury is still out on how exactly Japan meets its future energy demand,
should the country to decide to do away with nuclear power completely, fossil fuel
consumption will inevitably rise sharply in the short and medium terms.
Substantial additional oil use While LNG has, thus far, been the largest beneficiary of the Japanese earthquake, the
increase is oil consumption is also noteworthy. Since Q4 11, Japanese oil demand has
increased y/y by over 275 thousand b/d, led by higher crude burn (up y/y by 208 thousand
b/d) and fuel oil consumption (up y/y by 159 thousand b/d). Direct crude burn has now
14 March 2012 2
moved above 300 thousand b/d for the first time since February 2008. Should it stay above
this level for another month, that would constitute the first time since 1997 that Japanese
crude burn has remained above 300 thousand b/d for more than two consecutive months.
Fuel oil has been the other key beneficiary, with demand swiftly approaching 0.5 mb/d, the
highest level since early 2008. In the second half of 2011, the top ten Japanese power
utilities consumed a total of 205 thousand b/d of fuel oil, double the amount they used in
the first half. Total inputs of crude and fuel oil into Japan’s main electric utilities have surged
further since November, to well above 600 thousand b/d, matching February 2008’s peak.
For the current fiscal year ending 31 March, TEPCO now expects that its total oil purchases
will be the highest in over three years.
Gas-fired plants running While there is a prevalent view in the market is that LNG will remain the largest incremental
at high utilization rates gainer in 2012 as well, capacity utilisation in gas-fired power plants is already very high at
close to 80%. More importantly, Japan’s ability to burn any more incremental gas to meet its
power demand this year will be heavily constrained by the lack of regassification capacity,
with newbuild capacity only coming online in 2013. Clearly, gas imports and consumption
have increased sharply, but there is not much room to manoeuvre higher from current
levels until new regassification capacity comes online in 2013. Utilisation at oil plants have
more than doubled, but still remains less than 50%. Moreover, some utilities are starting to
discuss and consider bringing back their mothballed oil-fired units, with Kansai Electric
Power spearheading the process by submitting a proposal to restart 2.4 GW (5 units) of oil-
fired capacity by the summer of this year. Chugoku Electric Power and Shikoku Electric
Power are restarting their mothballed 350 MW and 220 MW units among others. With oil
prices at $125 per barrel and the usually more heavily discounted fuel oil price at a three-
year high, this is, however, a very expensive alternative for Japan. Further, it raises the
question of sustainability – both in terms of the environment and in terms of its current
account position. However, in 2012, oil-fired generation is likely to step up to fill in a large
part of Japan’s power shortfalls, at least until a decision is made regarding whether to
continue with nuclear power.
Further heavy crude oil inventory The graph of the week in the US weekly oil data release is very clear again – it is Figure 34,
builds at Cushing which shows the seemingly accelerating build of crude oil inventories at Cushing,
Oklahoma. Eight weeks ago, it looked very different. Cushing inventories had been falling
counter-seasonally for a couple of months, well below their 2011 path and below their five-
year average. With all the new storage facilities that are now available, the amount of spare
storage at Cushing was at all-time record. Since then, Cushing inventories have built seven
times in the past eight weeks, adding 6.5 mb in the past three weeks alone. The gap from
last year has been almost completely closed, and the level is now 9.8 mb above the five-year
average. Given the imbalance in Midwest supply and demand flows and the associated
infrastructural capacity issues, even dislocated Cushing prices look good relative to the even
more deeply discounted crude elsewhere in the region. The steep pace of recent Cushing
builds does seem to suggest that WTI may have further to fall relative to Brent in the short
term. In particular, the physical disequilibrium at Cushing is likely to persist until the
incentive to pile up incremental Midwest flows at Cushing is removed by the evening out of
some of the more extreme intra-Midwest differentials. The overall build in crude oil this
week was actually a little less that the seasonal average build, but it is the Cushing position
that is the dominant feature of the crude side of the data. Oil product inventories tightened
in the latest data, falling below their five-year average again after having fallen by 2.85 mb
relative to that average (excluding the “other oils” category). The main driver of that change
was distillates, which moved from 1.7 mb above their five-year average to 1.8 mb below
that average, helped by a sharp 3.8 mb fall in diesel inventories (see Figure 46). The demand
14 March 2012 3
indications were a little better in the latest release, with gasoline and distillates showing
their second highest weekly implied demand readings of the year-to-date, at 8.415 mb/d
and 3.832 mb/d, respectively. However, those readings are still relatively weak, with
March-to-date showing a y/y decline of 354 thousand b/d in gasoline and 197 thousand
b/d in diesel.
I met a girl who sang the blues We left you with what proved to be a literary question last week. We asked, apart from now
and I asked her for some happy being deceased, what do Louisa M. Alcott, Harry Houdini, Oscar Wilde, Jane Austen and
news, but she just smiled and Abigail Adams have in common. The answer to this is that all those people have acquired a
turned away rather strange literary afterlife. You did get a bit of a clue in a piece of hanging text drawn
from Elvis Costello’s Watching the Detectives. All of the people in the list above feature in
sometimes long series of novels in which they solve murders. For example, the author and
ex-politician Gyles Brandreth has written four Oscar Wilde mysteries, the latest released in
the US being the genre-crossing Oscar Wilde and the Vampire Murders. Louisa M. Alcott
and Jane Austen are perhaps surprising detectives, although going one step further, we also
came across one series of detective novels in which the sleuths were Mr Darcy and Elizabeth
Bennet. It seems that the genre potentially encompasses virtually any idea you might have;
indeed, our search on one online bookseller’s list revealed no less than 74 detective novels
in which the detective is a cat. We have no immediate plans to read any of them. For this
week, a bit of time travel. What does one part of the US Congress say should happen this
week, while outside Congress others say it should happen on 17 April, 29 April, 22 July, or in
exactly one year before 10 o’clock in the morning?
Data releases used in this report come from the following sources, and from Barclays Capital calculations. Page 8:
Sources
OPEC, NYMEX, ICE, TOCOM. Pages 9 to 11: ICE, NYMEX. Page 12: CBOT, CME, CSCE, COMEX, ICE, LIFFE, LME, MATIF,
NYCE, NYMEX, TOCOM, WCE. Page 13: US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Pages 1, 16 to 20, 22 to 24: EIA
Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Additional sources for pages 22 to 24 are EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly and EIA
Petroleum Supply Annual. Page 26: Smith Bits Weekly Rig Report. Pages 27 to 28: Commodities Futures Trading
Commission, Commitment of Traders Report. Pages 30 to 32: International Energy Agency Oil Market Report, OPEC
Monthly Oil Market Report, EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook.
14 March 2012 4
COMMENTARY ON OTHER WEEKLY DATA
(a) Prices
Brent pushes back above $125 Oil prices have continued to move higher, with several key benchmarks nearing or surpassing
(see data on pages 8 to 12) their post-2008 highs in dollar terms, while setting all-time highs in euro terms. Across the
week as a whole, the value of the OPEC basket reached its highest level since July 2008,
gaining $2.61 to $124.59 per barrel, while in euro terms it gained €2.62 in setting an all-time
high of €95.41 per barrel. In Tokyo, the April average Dubai/Oman contract rose by ¥1,820
to ¥63,390 per kilolitre. April WTI rose by $2.01 to $106.71 per barrel. April Brent rose by
$4.24 to $126.22 per barrel, having traded over the range from $121.99 to $126.79. Along
the curve, Brent blend for December 2019 delivery rose by $3.41 to $93.31 per barrel. The
April-to-May WTI contango widened by 2 cents to 53 cents per barrel, while the
backwardation between April and May Brent narrowed by 2 cents to 55 cents per barrel.
April gasoline futures rose by 12.47 cents to 335.46 cents per gallon, while April heating oil
fell by 3.19 cents to 318.82 cents per gallon. The April gasoline crack rose by $3.23 to $34.18
per barrel, while the April heating oil crack rose by $1.48 to $30.68 per barrel. In London, the
price of the April European gasoil contract rose by $31.50 to $1040.75 per tonne.
US retail gasoline prices move The long rise in US retail gasoline prices continues, with prices now having been at their
higher, although y/y pace of highest for the time of year for over five months (see Figure 30). In the latest EIA survey, the
increase is decelerating average price increased for the eleventh time in 12 weeks, although, as Figure 30 shows, a
rising trend for the first five months of the year is a fairly regular occurrence. In the latest
week, the national average for regular unleaded gasoline rose by 3.6 cents to 382.9 cents
per gallon. The m/m rate of change is 3.6%, while the y/y pace has fallen further to a
relatively benign 7.3%. In the latest EIA data release, prices rose in all regions. The sharpest
increase was in the Rockies, where the regional average has increased by 28.4 cents over
the past two weeks alone. The average price in Los Angeles moved to within 17 cents of its
all-time high, gaining 3.4 cents over the past week to 444.1 cents per gallon. The national
average price of diesel rose by 2.9 cents to 412.3 cents per gallon, with the y/y increase in
diesel prices standing at 21.5%.
US natural gas prices There is still little in the way of supportive news for US natural gas prices from either the
weaken again weather outlook or from output reductions. Over the past week, another fairly low storage
withdrawal number continued to point to a very substantial end-of-March storage level, as
high as 2.35 Tcf in our estimate. This has, in turn, played further to fears of the potential for
distressed gas to hit the market due to the operation of storage ratchets. Prices weakened
further over the past week, with the April Henry Hub contract falling by 5.7 cents to $2.299 per
mmbtu, having traded over the range from $2.204 to $2.343 per mmbtu. In sharp contrast, UK
prices clawed back about half of the previous week’s losses, helped by lower LNG flows. In the
futures market, the April UK natural gas contract rose by 2.01 pence to 58.93 pence per therm,
and the July contract gained 2.22 pence to 59.26 pence per therm. Prompt-month US futures
prices are lower y/y by 40.9%, while UK prices are lower y/y by 1.5%.
US oil drilling continues its sharp US oil drilling activity has increased for the fourteenth week in the past 15 weeks, with the
rate of increase rise over the past seven weeks amounting to a dramatic 179 rigs. In the latest Smith Bits
data release, the level of oil development drilling rose by 11 rigs to 1041 rigs, while oil
exploration rose by 19 rigs to 192 rigs. Gas development fell by two rigs to 554 rigs, while
gas exploration was unchanged at 116 rigs. The level of US oil drilling is higher y/y by
55.7%, while gas drilling is lower by 26.8%.
14 March 2012 5
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14 March 2012 6
FUTURES AND RETAIL PRICES
14 March 2012 7
PRICE SCORECARD
Figure 2: Oil and gas prices over past week

1 week
(boxes are expiry days) 06 Mar 12 07 Mar 12 08 Mar 12 09 Mar 12 12 Mar 12 13 Mar 12 change
OPEC basket $/b 121.98 121.76 124.13 124.15 123.88 124.59 2.61
TOCOM Dubai/Oman average ¥/kl 62350 61580 62780 63580 63650 63800 1450
Brent futures 1st month $/b 121.98 124.12 125.44 125.98 125.34 126.22 4.24
WTI futures 1st month $/b 104.70 106.16 106.58 107.40 106.34 106.71 2.01
RBOB gasoline 1st month cents/gal 322.99 328.74 331.40 333.24 332.30 335.46 12.47
NY heating oil 1st month cents/gal 318.82 321.94 326.95 326.38 324.29 327.12 8.30
ICE gasoil 1st month $/tonne 1006.00 1006.00 1032.75 1033.75 1033.75 1039.25 33.25
Henry Hub gas, 1st month $/mmbtu 2.356 2.302 2.272 2.324 2.269 2.299 -0.057
ICE gas 1st month p/therm 56.92 57.59 59.83 59.63 58.76 58.93 2.01
Figure 3: Value of the OPEC basket($/b and €/b) Figure 4: Year-to-date Brent price averages ($/b)
135 100 120
130 95 110
125 100
90 2012 2011
120 90 2010 2009
2008 2007
115 85 80
110 70
80
105 60
$/b, left axis 75
100 €/b, right axis 50
95 70 40
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 5: ICE Brent ($/b) Figure 6: Brent price range, last ten days ($/b)
130 129
128
125
127
120
126
115 125
110 124
123
105
122
100 121
95 120
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 29 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 12 13
14 March 2012 8
CRUDE OIL AND OIL PRODUCT PRICES
Figure 7: NYMEX RBOB gasoline (cents/gal) Figure 8: RBOB gasoline range, last ten days (cents/gal)
340 340
330 335
320
330
310
325
300
290 320
280 315
270
310
260
305
250
240 300
Figure 9: NYMEX light sweet crude ($/b) Figure 10: Light sweet crude price range, last ten days ($/b)
115 111
110 110
105
109
100
108
95
90 107
85
106
80
105
75
70 104
Figure 11: NYMEX heating oil (cents/gal) Figure 12: ICE gasoil ($/tonne)
340 1050
330 1025
1000
320
975
310
950
300
925
290
900
280 875
270 850
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
14 March 2012 9
PRICE DIFFERENTIALS
Figure 13: First to second month time spreads and other first comparable month spreads
06 Mar 12 07 Mar 12 08 Mar 12 09 Mar 12 12 Mar 12 13 Mar 12
WTI $/b -0.51 -0.49 -0.48 -0.47 -0.50 -0.53
ICE Brent $/b 0.57 0.57 0.48 0.63 0.58 0.55
RBOB gasoline cents/gal 0.06 0.36 0.02 0.32 0.12 0.13
NY heating oil cents/gal -0.68 -0.82 -0.68 -0.91 -1.01 -0.96
ICE gasoil $/tonne -3.25 -3.75 -3.25 -3.00 5.50 -1.50
Henry Hub gas $/mmbtu -0.11 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.11
ICE gas p/therm -0.07 -0.15 -0.19 -0.10 -0.30 -0.20
WTI-Brent $/b -17.28 -17.96 -18.86 -18.58 -19.00 -19.51

Gasoline -WTI $/b 30.96 31.91 32.61 32.56 33.23 34.18
Heating oil - WTI $/b 29.20 29.05 30.74 29.68 29.86 30.68
US 3-2-1 crack (CL, RB, HO) $/b 30.37 30.96 31.99 31.60 32.10 33.02
Figure 14: 3-2-1 crack spreads (RB, HO and CL, $/b) Figure 15: Front month Brent-WTI spread ($/b)
36 30
October 12
July 12 28
32 April 12 26
24
28 22
20
24 18
16
20 14
12
16 10
8
12 6
Figure 16: RBOB gasoline crack spreads ($/b) Figure 17: Heating oil crack spreads ($/b)
35 October 12 40
October 12
July 12 38 July 12
April 12 April 12
30 36
34
25
32
30
20
28
26
15
24
10 22
20
5 18
14 March 2012 10
OIL TIME SPREADS AND NATURAL GAS PRICES
Figure 18: WTI time structure, 1st-2nd month ($/b) Figure 19: Brent time structure, 1st-2nd month ($/b)
0.2 2.8
0.1 2.4
0.0 2.0
-0.1 1.6
-0.2 1.2
-0.3 0.8
-0.4 0.4
-0.5 0.0
-0.6 -0.4
Figure 20: Brent forward curve ($/b) Figure 21: Brent forward curve trading range ($/b)
130 130
120
125
110
120
100 range in 2012
115
90 two months ago
110 one month ago
80 13 Mar 2012
105
70
13 Mar 2012 100
60 One year ago
Two years ago 95
50 Three years ago
Four years ago
40 90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 85
years to expiry 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Figure 22: NYMEX Henry Hub gas ($/mmbtu) Figure 23: Henry Hub range, last ten days ($/mmbtu)
4.2 2.65
4.0 2.60
3.8 2.55
3.6 2.50
3.4 2.45
3.2 2.40
2.35
3.0
2.30
2.8
2.25
2.6
2.20
2.4
2.15
2.2
29 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 12 13
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
14 March 2012 11
RELATIVE COMMODITY PRICES

Figure 24: Commodities ranked by percentage price change over the past week
Week's Prev Wk's 1 Month 1 year
Mar 13 2012 Price Units % change % change % change % change Exchange
Cocoa (London) 1514 £/tonne 5.1 -4.8 5.3 -31.7 LIFFE
Zinc (London) 2079.5 $/tonne 3.6 -5.5 -0.4 -8.0 LME
Cocoa (NY) 2392 $/tonne 3.4 -4.1 8.8 -30.9 CSCE
Tin 23450 $/tonne 3.3 -5.9 -7.4 -20.1 LME
Kerosene 73890 ¥/kilolitre 3.1 -0.5 9.2 4.2 TOCOM
RBOB gasoline 335.46 cts/gal 3.0 1.0 6.2 12.3 NYMEX
Nickel 19250 $/tonne 2.9 -7.5 -8.2 -25.0 LME
Platinum (Tokyo) 4471 ¥/g 2.8 -1.6 7.9 -5.9 TOCOM
Canola 597.8 C$/tonne 2.6 0.3 11.0 7.9 WCE
Lead 2122 $/tonne 2.6 -7.6 -0.3 -12.6 LME
Gasoline (Tokyo) 79090 ¥/kilolitre 2.6 1.8 13.0 11.8 TOCOM
Natural gas (UK) 58.93 p/therm 2.5 -6.4 5.6 -1.5 ICE
Platinum (NY) 1700.3 $/Troy oz 2.4 -3.5 3.2 -4.6 NYMEX
Copper (London) 8530 $/tonne 2.3 -3.7 0.2 -5.7 LME
Dubai/Oman average 63800 ¥/kilolitre 2.3 1.2 13.1 11.6 TOCOM
Soybeans 1348.75 cts/60 lb bu 2.2 1.1 7.7 1.7 CBOT
Soybean meal 363.8 $/ton 2.1 2.8 10.1 5.1 CBOT
Soybean oil 54.52 cts/lb 2.1 -1.9 2.8 -1.7 CBOT
Gasoil (London) 1039.25 $/tonne 2.0 -0.4 5.2 8.4 ICE
Brent 126.22 $/b 2.0 1.9 7.5 10.9 ICE
Heating oil 327.12 cts/gal 1.7 -0.1 4.2 8.0 NYMEX
Rubber (Tokyo) 321 ¥/kg 1.6 -0.8 6.0 -25.3 TOCOM
Rapeseed 473 €/tonne 1.3 2.3 5.2 6.0 MATIF
Silver (Tokyo) 88.7 ¥/g 1.3 -2.9 6.9 -5.3 TOCOM
Corn 674 cts/56 lb bu 1.2 2.0 5.4 2.2 CBOT
Copper (NY) 3.8965 $/lb 1.1 -1.5 1.5 -7.1 COMEX
Gold (Tokyo) 4504 ¥/g 1.0 -3.1 4.3 19.1 TOCOM
Corn (Paris) 210.75 €/kg 0.7 1.6 2.3 -4.6 MATIF
Coal 58.68 $/ton 0.4 -4.3 0.4 -18.1 NYMEX
Lumber 271.5 $ per 1000 ft 0.3 1.1 -1.4 -4.7 CME
Palladium (NY) 707.35 $/Troy oz 0.3 -2.0 1.3 -7.4 NYMEX
Palladium (Tokyo) 1855 ¥/g 0.3 0.8 5.5 -9.8 TOCOM
Rough rice 1412.5 cts/56 lb bu 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 10.4 CBOT
Wheat (Paris) 211.5 €/tonne 0.1 2.7 3.5 -5.2 MATIF
Wheat (London) 166.5 £/tonne 0.0 0.9 1.8 -8.4 LIFFE
WTI 106.71 $/b -0.0 0.2 5.4 5.5 NYMEX
Oats 331.5 cts/56 lb bu -0.2 3.5 2.0 -4.1 CBOT
Silver (NY) 33.544 $/Troy oz -0.3 -9.4 -0.5 -6.6 COMEX
Live cattle 127.725 cts/lb -0.5 0.1 -0.3 9.1 CME
Gold (NY) 1693.7 $/Troy oz -0.5 -4.7 -1.7 19.1 COMEX
Feeder cattle 155.525 cts/lb -0.6 0.4 0.5 18.2 CME
Aluminium (London) 2187.5 $/tonne -0.7 -4.6 -0.9 -12.2 LME
Sugar (London) 641.3 $/tonne -1.0 -2.3 0.5 -10.9 LIFFE
Robusta coffee 1965 $/tonne -1.8 -0.3 -5.3 -17.4 LIFFE
Lean hogs 87.675 cts/lb -2.0 1.6 -0.3 -0.5 CME
Sugar (NY) 24.13 cts/lb -2.2 -2.6 1.4 -16.4 CSCE
Natural gas (US) 2.299 $/mmbtu -2.4 -6.5 -12.3 -40.9 NYMEX
Wheat (Chicago) 651.5 cts/60 lb bu -2.4 0.8 1.6 -6.3 CBOT
Wheat (Minneapolis) 810.75 cents per bushel -2.5 3.6 -0.6 -5.0 MGE
Wheat (Kansas City) 685 cents per bushel -2.9 0.9 0.3 -16.5 KBOT
Orange juice 185.8 cts/lb -3.3 4.4 4.6 10.2 NYCE
Cotton 88.04 cts/lb -4.5 -0.0 -4.9 -57.0 NYCE
Arabica coffee 185.35 cts/lb -8.0 -2.3 -12.7 -32.3 CSCE
14 March 2012 12
US RETAIL PRICES
Figure 25: Gasoline and diesel prices (cents/gal) Figure 26: Regular gasoline and diesel prices (cents/gal)
1 we e k 4 we e k 1 ye a r 420
Mar 12 2012 P ric e c ha nge c ha nge c ha nge
all regular gasoline 382.9 3.6 30.6 26.2 410
conventional regular 374.7 3.0 28.1 23.0 400
reformulated regular 400.2 4.8 36.0 33.1
390
midgrade gasoline 395.4 3.4 29.5 26.4
premium gasoline 407.7 3.4 27.9 26.8 380
all gasoline grades 388.4 3.5 30.0 26.3 370
diesel 412.3 2.9 18.0 21.5
360
Figure 27: Regular gasoline prices (cents/gal) 350
Mar 12 2012 P ric e 1 we e k c h 4 we e k c h 340 Diesel
Chicago 413.0 12.0 60.8 Gasoline
Ohio 386.6 12.9 55.3 330
San Francisco 435.6 0.3 54.2 320
California 437.6 1.8 54.1 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Los Angeles 444.1 3.4 52.3
Cleveland 388.5 12.8 51.9
West coast (PAD 5) 421.8 2.2 49.1
Seattle 404.8 0.1 45.2 Figure 28: Percentage price change over previous month
Washington state 397.9 2.6 43.6
Rockies (PAD 4) 347.9 14.9 40.8 10
Midwest (PAD 2) 380.9 6.4 40.2 Gasoline
Denver 343.9 20.5 38.7 8
Diesel
Colorado 344.0 19.8 37.3 6
National average 382.9 3.6 30.6
Houston 371.0 13.0 27.4 4
Minnesota 366.5 5.7 24.8
Texas 367.6 6.6 22.3 2
Gulf coast (PAD 3) 364.7 4.1 21.6 0
Miami 391.3 2.7 17.8
Boston 372.1 -0.2 17.6 -2
Massachusetts 372.0 -0.3 17.2
Central Atlantic (PAD 1Y) 379.3 1.3 16.6 -4
New England (PAD 1X) 380.9 -1.0 16.5
-6
East coast (PAD 1) 377.2 0.4 16.0
New York city 381.7 0.7 15.7 -8
Lower Atlantic (PAD 1Z) 374.6 0.2 15.5 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
New York state 395.2 -0.4 14.1
Florida 377.9 -0.3 13.7
Figure 29: Regular gasoline prices (cents/gal) Figure 30: Gasoline prices, past six years (cents/gal)
2012
400 450 2011
390 2010
400 2009
380 Ohio 2008
Florida 2007
370
350
360
350 300
340
250
330
320
200
310
300 150
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
14 March 2012 13
DEFINITION OF US PADS (USED IN RETAIL PRICE AND INVENTORY DATA)
WA
ME
MT ND
OR MN VTNH
ID PAD 4 SD WI
MI
NY MA
CT RI
PAD 5 WY PAD 2
IA PA NJ
NE
NV OH
UT IL IN MD DE
CA CO WV
KS MO VA
KY
PAD 1
TN NC
AZ OK
NM AR SC
AL GA
MS
PAD 3
PAD 5 ALSO CONTAINS THE LA
STATES OF ALASKA AND HAWAII TX
FL
ME
VT NH
PAD 1X
NY MA
CT RI
PA NJ
Subdivisions of PAD 1 PAD 1Y

MD DE
WV
VA
NC
SC PAD 1Z
GA
FL
14 March 2012 14
US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY WEEKLY DATA
14 March 2012 15
US DoE details 1: Crude oil

Figure 31: Crude oil inventories (mb) Figure 32: Crude oil inventories (mb)
1 we e k 4 we e k 5 2 wk dif f f ro m 380
c ha nge c ha nge c ha nge 5 yr a v g 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
09 Mar 2012
Total USA 347.45 1.75 8.38 -3.2 10.9 370
PAD 1 10.52 -0.93 1.06 -0.3 -2.4
360
PAD 2 99.54 0.68 3.53 -2.2 19.2
Cushing, OK 38.70 2.52 6.22 -1.3 9.8 350
PAD 3 164.49 3.33 2.14 -7.9 -10.6
PADS 1,2+3 274.55 3.07 6.73 -10.5 6.2 340
PAD 4 16.87 -0.27 -0.15 1.3 2.1
330
PAD 5 56.03 -1.05 1.80 6.0 2.6
Days Cover 24.02 0.33 0.99 -0.7 0.5 320
310
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Figure 33: Crude imports and refinery runs (mb/d) Figure 34: Crude inventories at Cushing, OK (mb)
4 we e k 4 wk a v g 45 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11

1 we e k 4 we e k avg v. % ch v.
09 Mar 2012 c ha nge avg 2 0 10 2 0 10
Imports 8.72 0.00 8.93 0.65 7.9 40

PAD3 4.99 0.19 4.88 0.26 5.7
Refinery runs 14.46 -0.13 14.64 0.77 5.6 35
PAD1 0.94 0.01 0.93 -0.08 -7.7
PAD2 3.49 0.08 3.48 0.27 8.4
30
PAD3 7.12 -0.29 7.35 0.59 8.8
PADS 1,2+3 11.55 -0.20 11.76 0.78 7.1
25
PAD4 0.57 -0.01 0.57 0.02 4.5
PAD5 2.35 0.07 2.31 -0.04 -1.5
Refinery Util. 82.70 -1.20 83.93 2.50 20
Figure 35: Crude oil imports (mb/d, 4-week average) Figure 36: Crude oil input to refineries (mb/d)
10.5 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 16.0 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
10.0
15.5
9.5
15.0
9.0
14.5
8.5
14.0
8.0
7.5 13.5
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
14 March 2012 16
US DoE details 2: Gasoline

Figure 37: Gasoline inventories (mb) Figure 40: Gasoline inventories (mb)
1 we e k 4 we e k 5 2 wk dif f f ro m
09 Mar 2012 c ha nge c ha nge c ha nge 5 yr a v g 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
Total USA 228.12 -1.41 -4.05 3.1 5.2 240
PAD 1 62.12 0.64 0.22 -0.3 2.7
PAD 2 54.75 -0.81 -2.49 2.0 -0.7
230
PAD 3 73.80 -0.79 -0.24 3.2 3.6
PADS 1,2+3 190.68 -0.96 -2.51 4.9 5.6
PAD 4 6.34 -0.34 -1.09 -0.7 -0.4 220
PAD 5 31.11 -0.11 -0.45 -1.1 -0.0
210
Figure 38: Gasoline inventories by type (mb) 200

09 Mar 2012 c ha nge c ha nge c ha nge 5 yr a v g
Figure 41: Gasoline imports (mb/d, 4-week average)
Reformulated 0.59 0.00 0.08 -0.7 -0.4
Conventional 58.08 -1.35 -4.80 -9.4 -36.3 1.3 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10
Blend. Comps 169.45 -0.06 0.66 13.1 41.9 1.2
1.1
Figure 39: Gasoline flows (mb/d) 1.0

1 we e k 4 wk 4 wk a v g 4 wk a v g % 0.9
09 Mar 2012 c ha nge avg v . 2 0 10 c h v . 2 0 10
0.8
Total Imports 0.5 -0.0 0.6 -0.1 -15.6
Implied demand 8.4 0.2 8.4 -0.7 -7.2 0.7
Total Production 8.8 0.2 8.8 -0.2 -2.5 0.6
PAD3 Production 2.0 -0.0 1.9 -0.1 -5.7
0.5
0.4
Figure 42: PAD1 gasoline inventories (mb)
66 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11

64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
14 March 2012 17
US DoE details 3: Distillates

Figure 43: Heating oil and diesel inventories (mb) Figure 44: Heating oil inventories (mb)
1 we e k 4 we e k 5 2 wk dif f f ro m 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
09 Mar 2012 c ha nge c ha nge c ha nge 5 yr a v g 55
Heating oil 29.69 -0.88 -0.81 -7.3 -7.6

50
PAD 1 22.75 -0.30 -0.32 -5.3 -4.3
1X 5.92 -0.37 -0.95 -0.6 -0.0 45
1Y 15.10 0.11 0.01 -4.1 -2.8
1Z 1.73 -0.05 0.61 -0.6 -1.6 40
PAD 2 0.62 -0.01 -0.03 -0.8 -1.6
PAD 3 4.84 -0.52 -0.36 -1.2 -1.4 35
PADS 1,2+3 28.20 -0.83 -0.71 -7.3 -7.4
PAD 4 0.22 -0.00 0.05 0.1 0.0 30
PAD 5 1.27 -0.05 -0.15 -0.0 -0.3
Diesel 105.12 -3.80 -8.10 -10.5 5.9 25
Figure 45: Total distillate inventories (mb)
Figure 46: Diesel inventories (mb)
Total USA 134.81 -4.68 -8.90 -17.8 -1.8
PAD 1 46.15 -1.71 -2.88 -9.7 -4.3 130 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
PAD 2 33.33 -0.46 0.33 2.0 1.7 125
PAD 3 38.15 -1.92 -3.96 -11.4 -0.4
120
PADS 1,2+3 117.63 -4.10 -6.51 -19.2 -3.0
PAD 4 4.19 -0.05 0.14 0.9 1.1 115
PAD 5 12.99 -0.54 -2.54 0.5 0.2
110
105
Figure 47: Distillate flows (mb/d)
100
1 we e k 4 wk 4 wk a v g 4 wk a v g %
09 Mar 2012 c ha nge avg v . 2 0 10 c h v . 2 0 10 95
Total Imports 0.1 -0.0 0.2 -0.0 -13.7
90
Implied demand 3.8 0.3 3.6 -0.3 -7.1
Production 4.1 -0.1 4.2 0.2 4.1
PAD3 production 2.2 -0.1 2.3 0.2 8.8
Figure 48: PAD1Y heating oil inventories (mb) Figure 49: Total distillate inventories (mb)
32 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11 180 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11

30
28 170
26
24 160
22
20 150
18
16 140
14
12 130
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
14 March 2012 18
US DoE details 4: Jet, resid and total

Figure 50: Jet inventories (mb) Figure 51: Jet fuel inventories (mb)
1 we e k 4 we e k 5 2 wk dif f f ro m 50 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
Total USA 40.95 0.18 -1.14 0.4 0.1 48

PAD 1 9.59 0.42 -0.37 1.2 0.1
PAD 2 8.19 -0.09 -0.40 0.4 0.2 46
PAD 3 13.39 0.03 0.76 0.9 0.5
PADS 1,2+3 31.17 0.36 -0.01 2.5 0.8 44
PAD 4 0.81 0.05 0.11 0.1 0.2
PAD 5 8.97 -0.22 -1.24 -2.3 -0.9 42
40
Figure 52: Resid inventories (mb)
1 we e k 4 we e k 5 2 wk dif f f ro m 38
Total USA 35.25 1.06 2.98 -0.5 -1.7
PAD 1 8.47 0.23 -0.55 -3.1 -4.8
PAD 2 1.58 0.04 0.02 0.1 0.2 Figure 53: Resid inventories (mb)
PAD 3 20.22 0.96 3.07 2.7 3.2
44 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
PADS 1,2+3 30.27 1.23 2.54 -0.4 -1.5
PAD 4 0.21 -0.00 0.00 -0.0 -0.1
42
PAD 5 4.77 -0.17 0.43 -0.2 -0.1
40
Figure 54: Jet and resid flows (mb/d)
1 we e k 4 wk 4 wk a v g 4 wk a v g % 38
09 Mar 2012 c ha nge avg v . 2 0 10 c h v . 2 0 10
Jet production 1.3 -0.0 1.4 0.0 0.7 36

Jet demand 1.2 -0.3 1.4 0.0 1.2
Jet imports 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 34
Res. production 0.5 -0.0 0.6 0.0 2.3
Res. demand 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 -60.6 32
Res. imports 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -34.2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Figure 55: Total commercial inventories (mb) Figure 56: Inventories relative to 5-year average (mb)
40
1,160 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11 Crude oil
35
Products excl 'other oils'
1,140 30
1,120 25
20
1,100
15
1,080 10
1,060 5
0
1,040
-5
1,020 -10
-15
1,000
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
14 March 2012 19
Refinery output
Figure 57: Refinery output by region (thousand b/d) Figure 58: Percentage utilisation of operable capacity
East M id- G ulf We s t
93 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11
09 Mar 2012 C o ast We s t C o a s t R o c k ie s C o ast US A
Gasoline 2828 2114 1953 290 1552 8821 91

Conventional 1647 1751 1550 290 480 5717
89
Jet fuel 45 245 667 24 358 1339
Commercial 45 226 598 21 321 1211 87
Military 0 19 69 3 37 128
Distillate 322 981 2194 212 437 4146 85
Diesel 147 986 2036 213 389 3773
83
Heating oil 174 -6 158 -1 47 373
Residual fuel oil 48 42 305 13 120 528 81
79
Figure 59: One year change in output (thousand b/d) Figure 60: Gasoline output (mb/d, 4-week average)
East M id- G ulf We s t 9.5 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10
09 Mar 2012 C o ast We s t C o a s t R o c k ie s C o ast US A
Gasoline -22 23 -161 14 3 77

9.3
Conventional -24 8 -179 14 6 -176
Jet fuel -37 14 43 -4 -57 -40
Commercial -37 14 51 -2 -67 -41 9.1
Military 0 0 -8 -2 11 1
Distillate -37 95 66 41 -134 31 8.9
Diesel -61 120 202 43 -130 172
Heating oil 24 -25 -136 -2 -4 -141
8.7
Residual fuel oil -4 3 31 2 7 39
8.5
Figure 61: One week change in output (thousand b/d) Figure 62: Heating oil output (mb/d, 4-week average)
East M id- G ulf We s t 0.65
09 Mar 2012 C o ast We s t C o a s t R o c k ie s C o ast US A 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10
Gasoline 86 -11 -10 2 56 232 0.60

Conventional 52 -16 -14 2 23 46 0.55
Jet fuel -7 41 -20 1 -22 -7
0.50
Commercial -7 32 -25 2 -37 -36
Military 0 9 5 -1 16 28 0.45
Distillate -12 -65 -94 24 72 -74
0.40
Diesel -11 -61 -38 25 83 -1
Heating oil -2 -5 -56 0 -11 -73 0.35
Residual fuel oil 4 3 -34 -1 -12 -40
0.30
0.25
14 March 2012 20
US OIL DEMAND INDICATIONS
14 March 2012 21
US OIL DEMAND: GASOLINE, DISTILLATES AND JET FUEL
Figure 63: Gasoline demand, monthly and 12-month rolling Figure 64: Gasoline demand annual growth (thousand b/d)
average (mb/d)
400
9.6
9.4 200
9.2
0
9.0
8.8 -200
8.6 -400
8.4
-600
8.2 Latest revised month (December)
8.0 -800 Unrevised (latest 1-8 March)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 13
Figure 65: Distillate demand, monthly and 12-month rolling Figure 66: Distillate demand annual growth (thousand b/d)
average (mb/d)
4.6 500
4.4
250
4.2
0
4.0
3.8 -250
3.6
-500
3.4 Latest revised month (December)
Unrevised (latest 1-8 March)
3.2 -750
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 13
Figure 67: Jet fuel demand, monthly and 12-month rolling Figure 68: Jet fuel demand annual growth (thousand b/d)
average (mb/d)
1.8 150
100
1.7
50
1.6 0
-50
1.5
-100
1.4 -150
-200
1.3
-250 Latest revised month (December)
1.2 -300
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 13
14 March 2012 22
US OIL DEMAND: RESID, OTHER OILS AND TOTAL
Figure 69: Resid demand, monthly and 12-month rolling Figure 70: Resid demand annual growth (thousand b/d)
average (mb/d)
1.1 300
1.0 200
0.9 100
0.8
0
0.7
-100
0.6
-200
0.5
-300
0.4
0.3 -400
Latest revised month (December)
-500 Unrevised (latest 1-8 March)
0.2
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 13
Figure 71: Other oils demand, monthly and 12-month rolling Figure 72: Other oils demand annual growth (thousand b/d)
average (mb/d)
5.5
750
500
5.0 250
0
4.5 -250
-500
4.0 -750
-1000
3.5 -1250
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 13
Figure 73: US oil demand (excl “other oils”), monthly and 12- Figure 74: US oil demand (excl “other oils”) annual growth
month rolling average (mb/d) (thousand b/d)
16.5 750
500
16.0
250
15.5
0
15.0 -250
-500
14.5
-750
14.0
-1000
13.5 -1250
13.0 -1500 Unrevised (latest 1-8 March)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 09 10 11 12 13
14 March 2012 23
US OIL DEMAND: SUMMARY
Figure 75: Year-on-year US oil demand growth (thousand b/d)

Gasoline Jet Distillate Resid Main 4 Total
2008 -296 -84 -250 -101 -731 -1,182
2009 7 -145 -314 -111 -563 -727
Q310 69 22 293 151 535 749
Q4 -26 41 237 14 265 294
2010 -3 39 169 24 229 409
January 2011 -108 11 267 8 179 469
February 69 1 17 112 198 19
March -43 -54 158 16 76 149
Q1 -31 -15 152 43 149 219
April -346 41 -70 10 -365 -431
May -378 -17 18 -41 -418 -503
June -265 2 160 -29 -132 -260
Q2 -330 8 36 -20 -306 -399
July -341 -28 -92 -279 -740 -764
August -348 69 129 -157 -308 -509
September -369 -40 43 -31 -398 -643
Q3 -353 1 26 -157 -483 -638
October -393 -60 171 -87 -370 -411
November -289 31 182 -157 -233 -243
December -252 -29 -394 -6 -682 -984
Q4 -312 -20 -16 -83 -430 -549
2011 -257 -6 49 -55 -270 -345
January 2012 -363 -14 -343 -172 -893 -1,034
February -311 44 -292 -264 -823 -581
1-8 March -354 -125 -197 -319 -994 -727
Figure 76: US oil demand (thousand b/d)

Gasoline Jet Distillate Resid Main 4 Total
2008 8,989 1,539 3,945 622 15,095 19,498
2009 8,997 1,393 3,631 511 14,532 18,771
Q310 9,227 1,479 3,752 528 14,986 19,473
Q4 8,915 1,403 3,941 522 14,782 19,227
2010 8,993 1,432 3,800 535 14,761 19,180
January 2011 8,412 1,355 3,968 623 14,359 19,121
February 8,648 1,344 3,871 627 14,489 18,869
March 8,750 1,389 3,993 547 14,678 19,248
Q1 8,602 1,363 3,946 598 14,509 19,087
April 8,762 1,451 3,689 600 14,502 18,613
May 8,784 1,429 3,657 478 14,348 18,363
June 9,046 1,545 3,903 471 14,965 19,277
Q2 8,863 1,474 3,749 516 14,602 18,747
July 8,960 1,466 3,452 316 14,194 18,555
August 8,907 1,555 3,959 319 14,739 19,153
September 8,753 1,417 3,929 482 14,580 18,795
Q3 8,875 1,480 3,778 371 14,504 18,835
October 8,623 1,370 3,944 402 14,338 18,563
November 8,527 1,427 4,055 395 14,404 18,734
December 8,659 1,354 3,782 519 14,313 18,738
Q4 8,604 1,383 3,925 439 14,351 18,678
2011 8,736 1,425 3,849 480 14,491 18,835
January 2012 8,049 1,341 3,625 450 13,465 18,088
February 8,336 1,388 3,579 363 13,666 18,288
1-8 March 8,396 1,264 3,796 227 13,684 18,522
Note: The column “Main 4” shows the sum of the main products, i.e. gasoline, jet, distillates and resid. The column “Total” also includes the estimates for “other oils”
(mainly naphtha and LPGs). The “other oils” category is estimated and prone to large revisions. The data shown on this and the previous two pages take account of
all data revisions made to date.
14 March 2012 24
OTHER WEEKLY DATA
14 March 2012 25
SMITH BITS RIG COUNTS
Figure 77: US oil activity (rigs) Figure 78: US oil development activity (rigs)
1 we e k 4 we e k 1 ye a r 1 yr %
c ha nge c ha nge c hange c ha nge
1100
09 Mar 2012
Total oil 1233 30 122 441 55.7 1000
Development 1041 11 85 366 54.2 900
Exploration 192 19 37 75 64.1
Texas 622 19 68 240 62.8 800
North Dakota 200 4 5 37 22.7 700
Oklahoma 137 7 21 66 93.0
New Mexico 59 -1 12 14 31.1 600
California 37 0 12 18 94.7
Louisiana 33 0 -1 24 266.7
500
Kansas 31 -3 -6 5 19.2 400
Montana 22 0 2 8 57.1
Wyoming 16 2 0 1 6.7 300
Utah 15 -2 -1 3 25.0 200
Colorado 9 2 -2 3 50.0
Other 52 2 12 22 73.3 100
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Figure 79: US gas activity (rigs) Figure 80: US oil exploration activity (rigs)
1 we e k 4 we e k 1 ye a r 1 yr %
c ha nge c ha nge c hange c ha nge
225
09 Mar 2012
Total gas 670 -2 -62 -245 -26.8 200
Development 554 -2 -53 -224 -28.8
Exploration 116 0 -9 -21 -15.3 175
Texas 217 -1 -19 -121 -35.8
Pennsylvania 127 9 -2 3 2.4 150
Louisiana 95 -1 -8 -54 -36.2
Oklahoma 90 -4 -6 -25 -21.7 125
Colorado 34 2 -4 -19 -35.8
Arkansas 31 3 2 -2 -6.1 100
West Virginia 27 -1 -8 0 0.0
Wyoming 19 -3 -5 -9 -32.1 75
Utah 9 0 0 -3 -25.0
New Mexico 5 0 0 -4 -44.4 50
Ohio 4 -5 -5 -7 -63.6
25
Kentucky 2 0 -4 -6 -75.0
Mississippi 2 0 0 0 0.0
0
Other 8 -1 -3 2 33.3
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Figure 81: Federal offshore drilling activity (rigs) Figure 82: US gas development activity (rigs)
70 1300
1200
60
1100
50
1000
40 900
30 800
700
20
600
10
500
0 400
08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
14 March 2012 26
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS SUMMARY
Figure 83: Disaggregated positions on WTI crude contracts (mb or thousand contracts)
06 Mar 2012 NYMEX WTI change ICE WTI change Total WTI change
Open interest 1584.8 67.0 386.4 6.6 1971.2 73.6
Producer-merchant longs 256.0 29.5 122.2 -4.7 378.2 24.8
Producer-merchant shorts 330.9 19.7 109.7 -5.6 440.6 14.0
Producer-merchant net -74.8 9.9 12.5 0.9 -62.4 10.8
Money manager longs 255.3 -6.5 34.7 2.4 290.0 -4.1
Money manager shorts 45.7 12.4 14.1 5.7 59.8 18.1
Money manager net 209.5 -18.9 20.6 -3.3 230.2 -22.2
Swap dealer longs 125.0 2.4 46.3 2.4 171.3 4.8
Swap dealer shorts 323.8 -5.7 76.8 -0.7 400.6 -6.4
Swap dealer net -198.8 8.1 -30.5 3.1 -229.3 11.2
Other reporting longs 141.5 8.5 9.1 -0.9 150.6 7.7
Other reporting shorts 114.1 7.3 14.8 1.3 128.9 8.6
Other reporting net 27.4 1.3 -5.7 -2.2 21.7 -1.0
Non-reporting longs 97.2 0.0 23.1 2.6 120.3 2.6
Non-reporting shorts 60.5 0.3 19.9 1.1 80.5 1.4
Non-reporting net 36.7 -0.3 3.1 1.5 39.8 1.2
Figure 84: Non-commercial positions on exchanges (thousand contracts)

F ut ure s ne t F ut ure s a nd
lo ng a s % o f F ut ure s o pe n 1 we e k F ut ure s o nly 1 we e k o pt io ns ne t 1 we e k
C o m m o dit y E xc ha nge o pe n int e re s t int e re s t c ha nge ne t lo ng c ha nge lo ng c ha nge
Platinum NYMEX 62.4 42.9 -2.5 26.7 -1.0 26.7 -1.4
Orange juice NYCE 48.3 22.8 1.1 11.0 1.1 11.6 0.8
Gold COMEX 36.8 443.2 -35.8 163.3 -30.0 172.0 -49.5
Feeder cattle CME 31.6 55.1 -1.1 17.4 0.3 21.2 0.2
Soybeans CBOT 28.2 568.7 28.4 160.5 34.0 171.5 35.7
Gasoline NYMEX 26.2 372.7 16.1 97.6 3.8 95.8 3.6
PJM Electricity NYMEX 26.0 73.1 -4.0 19.0 0.0 12.1 0.0
Soybean meal CBOT 25.6 206.5 16.7 52.9 21.4 52.5 21.8
Corn CBOT 21.9 1289.5 7.9 282.9 33.8 273.1 28.9
Silver COMEX 20.9 111.0 -4.8 23.2 -6.8 27.8 -7.7
Live cattle CME 17.9 365.0 -1.0 65.3 -0.6 95.4 -2.4
Sugar no. 11 CSCE 17.8 720.8 -3.0 128.6 -3.5 149.0 -10.1
Crude oil NYMEX 15.0 1584.8 67.0 237.0 -17.6 320.3 -13.1
Wheat KBOT 12.3 127.6 -4.4 15.7 2.9 16.8 3.1
Heating oil NYMEX 10.3 286.1 -15.6 29.6 -1.9 28.3 -1.9
Hogs CME 8.5 268.6 1.7 22.8 -6.6 37.5 -6.8
Copper COMEX 7.6 152.7 -0.6 11.6 1.1 11.6 1.1
Cotton No. 2 NYCE 4.7 176.4 4.8 8.4 2.7 11.1 2.8
Soybean oil CBOT 4.7 313.5 6.2 14.7 -13.7 16.5 -16.8
Coffee C CSCE 1.0 139.1 5.3 1.5 -0.1 -5.5 -1.8
Cocoa CSCE -3.5 169.4 8.6 -6.0 -1.6 -6.4 -1.7
Wheat CBOT -7.0 438.2 -8.6 -30.5 19.7 -31.5 19.9
Natural gas NYMEX -10.3 1216.4 12.0 -125.9 5.6 -129.8 4.5
Rice CBOT -16.4 14.7 -1.0 -2.4 0.2 -2.6 0.1
Explanatory Note:
The US Commodities Futures Trading Commission releases data each Friday showing the breakdown of open interest in futures and options markets in which 20 or
more traders hold positions above or equal to the CTFC reporting levels. These positions represent ‘reportable trades’, and are further broken down into ‘non-
commercial’ and ‘commercial’ (i.e. those who can hedge). Other trades are ‘non-reportable’. The volume of these trades can be worked out from comparing total
open interest with reported open interest, and the net position must by definition balance the combined position of non-commercials and commercials. Non-
reportable positions can be defined as small non-commercial and commercial traders. Options positions are reported on a futures equivalent basis, the mapping to
which is affected, inter alia, by the level of volatility. As of September 2009, new disaggregated data was produced, shown in Figure 83 for WTI crude contracts.
14 March 2012 27
Figure 85: Crude oil positions (mb) Figure 86: Crude oil futures net long position of non-
commercial traders (mb)
1 week 300
06 Mar 2012 change
Non-commercial positions 250
Futures net long 237.0 -17.6
Long positions 396.7 2.1 200
Short positions 159.8 19.7
150
Futures and options net long 320.3 -13.1
Long positions 418.2 -0.5 100
50
Non-reportable positions
Futures net long 36.7 -0.3 0
-50
09 10 11 12
Figure 87: Gasoline positions (mb) Figure 88: Gasoline futures net long position of non-
commercial traders (mb)
1 week
100
06 Mar 2012 change
Non-commercial positions
Futures net long 97.6 3.8 80
Long positions 118.4 4.8
60
Futures and options net long 95.8 3.6
Long positions 116.3 4.7 40
Non-reportable positions 20
Futures net long 14.8 0.1
Futures and options net long 14.9 0.2
0
09 10 11 12
Figure 89: Heating oil positions (mb) Figure 90: Total speculative longs across all New York oil
futures contracts, and oil prices
1 week 400 Speculative longs mb, left scale 120
06 Mar 2012 change WTI price $/b, right scale
Non-commercial positions 350
110
Futures net long 29.6 -1.9
300
Long positions 73.1 -1.2
100
Short positions 43.4 0.7 250
Futures and options net long 28.3 -1.9 200 90

Long positions 69.9 -1.2
Short positions 41.6 0.7 150
80
100
Non-reportable positions
70
Futures net long 24.3 -3.8 50
0 60
10 11 12
14 March 2012 28
MARKET BALANCES AND PRICE FORECASTS
14 March 2012 29
SUPPLY-DEMAND PROJECTIONS
Figure 91: Oil market balances from four sources (mb/d)

Annual Annual Annual
Barclays Capital 2010 change Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 2011 change Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 2012 change
Demand 87.8 2.92 88.6 87.5 89.4 89.6 88.8 0.98 89.4 88.7 90.5 91.0 89.9 1.12
OECD demand 46.3 0.56 46.3 44.6 45.9 46.1 45.7 -0.60 45.6 44.2 45.4 46.1 45.3 -0.37
non-OECD demand 41.5 2.35 42.3 42.9 43.6 43.5 43.1 1.58 43.8 44.5 45.1 44.9 44.6 1.49
Non-OPEC supply 52.3 1.12 52.6 51.8 51.8 52.3 52.1 -0.14 52.5 52.3 52.3 52.7 52.4 0.33
non-OPEC excluding FSU 39.1 0.82 39.2 38.5 38.6 39.1 38.9 -0.18 39.3 39.0 39.1 39.5 39.2 0.33
FSU 13.2 0.30 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.2 0.05 13.2 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 -0.00
OPEC NGLs/condensates 5.3 0.50 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.8 0.50 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.2 0.42
Call on OPEC crude+stocks 30.3 1.30 30.4 29.9 31.8 31.5 30.9 0.62 30.9 30.3 31.9 32.0 31.3 0.37
OPEC crude 29.4 0.77 29.7 29.1 30.0 30.6 29.9 0.47 31.1 30.9 31.1 31.0 31.0 1.17
OPEC 11 crude 26.9 0.74 27.0 26.7 27.7 27.7 27.3 0.34 27.5 28.4 28.6 28.1 28.2 0.89
Stockbuild -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -1.7 -0.8 -1.0 0.2 0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -0.2

IEA 2010 change Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 2011 change Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 2012 change
Demand 88.3 2.75 89.1 87.9 89.6 89.8 89.1 0.75 89.3 88.7 90.5 91.1 89.9 0.82
OECD demand 46.2 0.52 46.3 44.6 45.9 45.7 45.6 -0.54 45.6 44.1 45.5 45.7 45.2 -0.39
non-OECD demand 42.2 2.23 42.7 43.4 43.6 44.1 43.5 1.29 43.7 44.6 45.0 45.4 44.7 1.21
Non-OPEC supply 52.6 1.08 52.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7 0.13 53.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 53.5 0.74
non-OPEC excluding FSU 39.0 0.83 39.1 38.7 39.1 39.5 39.1 0.10 39.3 39.3 39.8 40.3 39.7 0.54
FSU 13.6 0.25 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 0.03 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.8 0.20
Call on OPEC crude+stocks 30.4 1.23 30.7 29.9 31.1 30.8 30.6 0.19 30.1 29.4 30.5 30.4 30.1 -0.48
OPEC crude 29.4 30.0 0.0 30.0 30.4 30.0 0.55 - - - - - -
Stockbuild -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 - - - - -

OPEC 2010 change Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 2011 change Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 2012 change
Demand 87.0 87.5 86.4 88.4 88.8 87.8 0.83 87.8 87.4 89.5 89.7 88.6 0.86
OECD demand 46.2 46.3 44.6 46.1 46.1 45.8 -0.38 45.7 44.5 46.0 46.0 45.6 -0.22
non-OECD demand 40.8 41.2 41.8 42.3 42.7 42.0 1.20 42.1 42.9 43.5 43.7 43.1 1.08
Non-OPEC supply 52.3 1.21 52.7 52.0 52.1 52.6 52.3 0.03 52.7 52.7 53.0 53.4 53.0 0.61
non-OPEC excluding FSU 39.1 0.94 39.4 38.7 38.8 39.4 39.1 0.00 39.4 39.4 39.6 39.9 39.6 0.49
FSU 13.2 0.27 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.3 0.03 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 0.12
OPEC NGLs+ non-conv. oil 4.9 0.55 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.39 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 0.36
Call on OPEC crude+stocks 29.8 29.7 29.1 31.0 30.8 30.1 0.39 29.6 29.1 30.8 30.6 30.0 -0.11
OPEC crude 29.3 0.48 29.6 29.2 29.9 30.4 29.8 0.52 - - - - - -
Stockbuild -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.1 -0.4 -0.4 - - - - -

US EIA (DOE) 2010 change Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 2011 change Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 2012 change
Demand 87.1 2.44 87.2 87.1 89.0 88.3 87.9 0.77 88.3 88.5 89.5 89.6 89.0 1.06
OECD demand 46.1 0.50 46.2 44.5 45.9 45.7 45.6 -0.53 45.7 44.7 45.3 45.8 45.4 -0.21
non-OECD demand 41.0 1.94 41.0 42.6 43.1 42.6 42.3 1.30 42.6 43.8 44.2 43.8 43.6 1.27
Non-OPEC supply 51.8 1.33 52.0 51.3 51.4 52.5 51.8 0.00 52.5 52.3 52.2 52.9 52.5 0.68
non-OPEC excluding FSU 38.6 1.02 38.7 37.9 38.1 39.2 38.5 -0.10 39.0 38.9 38.8 39.4 39.0 0.56
FSU 13.2 0.31 13.3 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 0.10 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.4 13.4 0.12
Call on OPEC crude+stocks 29.9 0.43 29.5 30.2 32.0 30.1 30.4 0.54 29.9 30.3 31.4 30.8 30.6 0.15
OPEC crude 29.8 0.67 29.8 29.2 30.0 30.4 29.9 0.08 30.6 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.3 0.48
Stockbuild -0.1 0.3 -1.0 -2.0 0.4 -0.6 0.7 -0.2 -1.1 -0.4 -0.3
Note: The latest IEA numbers are from IEA Monthly Oil Report March 2012. OPEC data comes from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, March 2012. The US DOE numbers
are from Energy Information Administration, Short Term Energy Outlook March 2012. The IEA and OPEC do not project OPEC crude output. In all numbers refinery gain is
included as part of non-OPEC supply excluding the FSU.
14 March 2012 30
NON-OPEC SUPPLY
Figure 92: Non-OPEC supply and projected annual changes

Barclays Estimates 2011 increase 2012 increase
2010 2011 2012 Barclays IEA DOE OPEC Barclays IEA DOE OPEC
North America 14.98 15.48 15.81 0.49 0.46 0.47 0.51 0.33 0.51 0.36 0.32
Canada 3.41 3.57 3.70 0.16 0.13 0.17 0.16 0.13 0.22 0.18 0.13
Mexico 2.95 2.93 2.90 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.08 -0.07 -0.06
USA 8.62 8.97 9.20 0.35 0.34 0.32 0.36 0.24 0.38 0.26 0.26
S+C America 4.65 4.71 4.95 0.06 0.15 0.07 0.07 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.26
Argentina 0.75 0.72 0.70 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.02 -0.01
Brazil 2.66 2.63 2.79 -0.03 0.05 -0.03 -0.03 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.17
Colombia 0.79 0.92 1.01 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.09
Europe 4.25 3.92 3.80 -0.33 -0.31 -0.30 -0.32 -0.12 -0.15 0.01 -0.08
Denmark 0.25 0.22 0.20 -0.02 - - -0.02 -0.02 - - -0.01
Norway 2.14 2.03 1.96 -0.10 -0.10 -0.12 -0.10 -0.07 -0.08 -0.01 -0.07
UK 1.34 1.11 1.02 -0.23 -0.25 -0.21 -0.25 -0.09 -0.04 0.06 -0.02
Middle East 1.58 1.43 1.32 -0.15 -0.09 -0.14 -0.10 -0.11 -0.20 -0.07 -0.12
Oman 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.04
Syria 0.40 0.34 0.24 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.07 -0.15
Yemen 0.26 0.16 0.15 -0.10 -0.07 -0.10 -0.08 -0.01 -0.05 0.02 -0.02
Asia Pacific 8.37 8.14 8.24 -0.22 -0.21 -0.18 -0.18 0.10 0.15 0.27 0.14
Australia 0.51 0.44 0.44 -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.10 0.00 0.13 0.07 0.04
Brunei 0.16 0.15 0.15 -0.01 - - 0.00 0.00 - - 0.01
China 4.08 4.07 4.12 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.14 0.04
India 0.87 0.89 0.94 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.02
Indonesia 1.02 0.96 0.94 -0.06 -0.04 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 -0.06 0.00 -0.01
Malaysia 0.65 0.60 0.57 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.03 0.01 0.03 -0.01
Vietnam 0.34 0.32 0.36 -0.02 - -0.03 0.00 0.04 - 0.04 0.04
Africa 2.58 2.54 2.43 -0.04 0.04 -0.01 0.00 -0.11 -0.19 -0.20 -0.09
Chad 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.00 - - -0.01 -0.01 - - -0.01
Egypt 0.67 0.66 0.64 -0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01
Equatorial Guinea 0.32 0.30 0.29 -0.02 - 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 - 0.05 0.02
Gabon 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Sudan and South Sudan 0.51 0.44 0.34 -0.07 - -0.08 -0.03 -0.10 - -0.23 -0.12
Former Soviet Union 13.20 13.24 13.24 0.05 0.03 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.20 0.12 0.11
Azerbaijan 1.04 0.97 0.98 -0.07 - -0.05 -0.12 0.01 - 0.07 0.02
Kazakhstan 1.61 1.63 1.66 0.02 - 0.03 0.00 0.03 - 0.16 0.03
Russia 10.13 10.20 10.18 0.07 0.13 0.09 0.13 -0.03 0.13 -0.13 0.07
14 March 2012 31
DEMAND
Figure 93: Demand forecasts and projected annual changes

Barclays Estimates 2011 increase 2012 increase
2010 2011 2012 Barclays IEA DOE OPEC Barclays IEA DOE OPEC
North America 23.98 23.67 23.45 -0.31 -0.27 -0.34 -0.21 -0.22 -0.12 -0.07 -0.06
Canada 2.21 2.23 2.23 0.03 0.01 0.02 - 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -
Mexico 2.16 2.17 2.20 0.01 0.01 0.00 - 0.03 0.00 0.03 -
USA 19.18 18.84 18.59 -0.34 -0.28 -0.34 - -0.25 -0.11 -0.07 -
S+C America 6.47 6.67 6.91 0.20 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.24 0.16 0.19 0.16
Brazil 2.76 2.86 3.04 0.10 0.07 0.03 - 0.18 0.04 0.12 -
Other S+C America 3.71 3.81 3.87 0.10 0.13 0.13 - 0.06 0.12 0.07 -
Europe 15.30 15.07 14.81 -0.22 -0.29 -0.27 -0.24 -0.26 -0.33 -0.14 -0.23
France 1.86 1.84 1.82 -0.02 - - - -0.02 - - -
Germany 2.49 2.41 2.39 -0.08 - - - -0.02 - - -
Italy 1.53 1.46 1.43 -0.06 - - - -0.03 - - -
Spain 1.43 1.38 1.32 -0.05 - -0.06 -
UK 1.62 1.60 1.59 -0.02 - - - -0.01 - - -
EU 5 8.94 8.70 8.56 -0.24 -0.27 - - -0.14 -0.22 - -
Middle East 7.24 7.35 7.51 0.12 0.20 0.24 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.17
Iran 1.50 1.46 1.44 -0.04 -0.04 - - -0.02 0.01 - -
Saudi Arabia 1.96 2.07 2.19 0.10 0.16 - - 0.12 0.09 - -
Asia Pacific 27.34 28.35 29.41 1.01 0.74 0.89 0.82 1.06 0.68 0.65 0.67
China 9.47 10.10 10.76 0.63 0.44 0.44 0.46 0.66 0.37 0.44 0.39
India 3.31 3.46 3.58 0.15 0.13 0.17 - 0.12 0.12 0.10 -
Japan 4.45 4.47 4.58 0.02 0.03 0.01 - 0.11 0.04 0.04 -
Korea 2.25 2.24 2.23 -0.01 -0.02 - - -0.01 0.01 - -
Other Asia-Pacific 7.85 8.08 8.25 0.22 0.16 - - 0.18 0.14 - -
Africa 3.16 3.19 3.23 0.03 -0.05 -0.07 0.01 0.04 0.17 0.12 0.03
Former Soviet Union 4.33 4.48 4.59 0.15 0.23 0.15 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.10
World 87.81 88.79 89.91 0.98 0.75 0.77 0.83 1.12 0.82 1.06 0.86
OECD 46.31 45.71 45.34 -0.60 -0.54 -0.53 -0.38 -0.37 -0.39 -0.21 -0.22
Non-OECD 41.50 43.08 44.57 1.58 1.29 1.30 1.20 1.49 1.21 1.27 1.08
14 March 2012 32
MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Figure 94: Barclays Capital GDP forecasts

Real GDP Real GDP
% over previous period saar % annual changes
3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 2011 2012 2013
Global 3.6 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.5 4.1
Developed 2.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.9
Emerging 5.1 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.4 5.6 6.3
BRIC 6.1 7.6 6.5 7.1 6.9 7.5 6.9 7.3
Americas 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.3 2.5 2.8 2.9
United States 1.8 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 1.7 2.5 2.5
Canada 4.2 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.7
Latin America 2.6 2.0 3.1 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.6 4.0
Argentina 4.5 -1.5 2.0 5.0 3.0 8.7 2.8 4.6
Brazil -0.3 1.4 3.4 5.5 5.2 2.7 3.3 4.1
Chile 2.6 1.2 2.9 4.7 6.8 6.0 3.7 5.0
Colombia 2.0 10.0 4.5 6.0 1.9 5.5 5.4 4.5
Mexico 5.1 1.7 2.0 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.0 3.3
Peru 5.2 5.0 6.1 5.9 6.5 7.0 5.8 6.0
Venezuela 4.9 1.9 4.7 2.9 4.6 4.2 4.9 2.2
Asia/Pacific 5.9 4.3 6.7 6.6 6.6 5.9 6.0 6.5
Japan 7.1 -0.7 2.6 2.6 3.4 -0.7 2.4 2.1
Australia 3.2 1.7 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.8
Emerging Asia 5.8 5.4 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.4 6.9 7.5
China 8.5 9.0 7.0 7.4 8.7 9.2 8.1 8.4
Hong Kong 0.3 -1.2 2.0 8.2 8.2 4.8 3.0 3.9
India 2.7 4.8 9.7 9.7 5.4 7.1 6.9 7.7
Indonesia 5.6 7.6 4.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.6
Korea 3.3 1.4 4.1 4.1 4.9 3.6 3.5 4.5
Malaysia 4.5 6.6 4.0 5.0 6.0 5.1 5.0 6.5
Philippines 0.1 8.6 6.0 0.3 2.9 3.8 4.2 4.6
Taiwan -0.2 -0.6 3.2 5.7 6.6 4.0 3.0 5.5
Thailand 3.4 -36.4 40.0 15.0 10.0 0.1 4.5 5.5
Europe and Africa 2.0 1.0 -0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 0.8 2.0
Euro area 0.6 -1.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 1.5 -0.4 0.9
Germany 2.3 -0.7 0.3 1.2 1.2 3.1 0.8 1.7
France 1.3 0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.3 1.1
Italy -0.7 -2.9 -2.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.4 -1.4 0.1
Spain 0.2 -1.2 -2.1 -3.4 -2.6 0.7 -1.8 0.0
Netherlands -1.7 -2.8 -0.8 0.5 1.0 1.3 -0.6 1.3
United Kingdom 2.2 -0.8 1.1 0.3 2.6 0.8 0.9 2.2
EM Europe and Africa 5.0 6.2 0.7 2.0 2.6 4.6 3.0 3.9
Czech Republic 0.0 -1.2 -0.5 1.1 2.3 1.7 0.5 1.5
Hungary 1.5 1.1 -1.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 0.2 1.7
Poland 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.5 4.1 2.3 3.2
Russia 7.1 12.0 0.6 2.3 3.1 4.3 4.3 4.5
Turkey 5.9 1.5 0.4 1.1 1.4 7.9 1.8 4.1
South Africa 1.7 3.2 1.6 3.7 3.9 3.1 2.7 3.8
Note: Weights used for real GDP are based on IMF PPP-based GDP (5 yr centred moving averages).
14 March 2012 33
TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS
Figure 95: Key recommendations:
Current price Gain/Loss
Contract Entry Date Entry price (March-13-2012) Unit $ %
Open trades
Rationale: We see the medium-term crude oil price risks, as being to the upside mainly due to strong EM demand growth, lack of spare capacity and constraints on non-OPEC
supply. We expect far-forward prices to benefit, with our long-term price forecast for Brent pegged at $135/bbl.
Long Brent crude oil Dec-15 27/01/2011 98.2 99.8 $/bbl 1.6 1.7%
Rationale: China's rising costs for aluminium suggest a production slowdown ahead. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow very strongly and incentive prices for producers
are rising. This should support steady appreciation in prices over the medium-term with the back end of the curve expected to outperform
Long LME aluminium Dec-15 29/03/2011 2884 2561 $/t -323.5 -11.2%
Rationale: We remain positive on corn prices with concerns on recent dry weather in South America and its impact on yields, while global inventory levels remain extremely
low.
Long CBOT corn Mar-12 21/11/2011 605 674 c/Bsh 11.3 2.6%
Rationale: LME copper stocks are declining and Chinese imports have remained firm. The picture for raw materials is tight, with a narrowing in scrap discounts and recent
supply problems at Grasberg, plus some other mines.
Long LME copper Jun-12 21/11/2011 7328 8559 $/t -508 -2.4%
Rationale: US soybeans have seen recent supply downgrades with production down y/y. Chinese import buying has been muted, but activity has picked up in recent weeks
after the decline in international prices. China's production is down y/y and we expect imports to move higher.
Long CBOT soybeans Mar-12 20/12/2011 1155 1349 c/Bsh 194.3 -1.6%
Rationale: We anticipate a move into backwardation at the front-end of the copper curve due to low inventories and strong demand as consumption reaches its seasonal peak
approaching Q2
Copper spreads tightening 21/11/2011 -17.3 -3.5 -4.0 -
Long position Mar-12 7317 8563 $/t 1246 -
Short position Sep-12 7334 8567 $/t -1233 -
Rationale: Our expectation of stable crude oil prices should support US gasoline demand at reasonable levels in 2012, but a substantial loss in refining capacity is set to
squeeze supplies. As a result, summer gasoline prices should increase.
US gasoline (RBOB) spread tightening 20/12/2011 3.0 5.3 2.38 -
Long position Aug-12 265 325 cents/g 59.21 -
Short position Sep-12 263 319 cents/g -56.83 -
Rationale:Palladium has potentially the weakest supply outlook in 2012 of any commodity we forecast. We expect the market to swing from surplus in 2011 to a small deficit
in 2012, helped by a strong growth in autocatalyst demand. We also expect a rebound in net investment buying of palladium in 2012.
Long NYMEX palladium Dec-12 29/02/2012 710 711 $/oz 1.5 0.2%
Rationale: The long-running push to reconfigure refineries globally to maximise the production of light products is coming at the expense of fuel oil output. Meanwhile
expansion in bulk carrier and tanker fleets, plus strong demand from Japanese electricity generators is underpinning demand
Fuel oil versus gasoil differentials 29/02/2012 -30.54 -31.18 -0.64 -
Long Rotterdam fuel oil Q4 2013 97.74 101.20 $/bbl 3.46 -
Short ICE gasoil Q4 2013 128.28 132.38 $/bbl -4.10 -
Rationale: After a strong increase in global supply in the 2010-11 marketing year, we expect further production growth in the current marketing year. Coffee demand is more
leveraged to trends in mature economies than is the case for most other commodities; we expect sluggish consumption growth in 2011-12.
Short ICE coffee Dec-12 29/02/2012 212 195 16.9 8.0%
Note: The open long position on LME copper was originally opened on 26/05/2011 and includes losses from the previous trade (Dec-2011).
The open long position on CBOT corn was originally opened on 20/04/2011 and includes losses from the previous trade (Dec-2011).
The long position in LME copper spreads was opened on 24/08/2011 and includes losses on the Dec 11/June 12 trade.
The long position on CBOT soybeans was originally opened on 24/08/2011 and includes losses from the previous trade (Jan-2011). Source: Reuters, Barclays Capital
14 March 2012 34
Figure 96: Closed trades

Gain/Loss
Closed Trades Contract Entry Date Exit Date Entry price Exit price Unit $ %
Directional trades
Short US nat gas Henry Hub Oct-13 21/11/2011 20/12/2011 4.4 4.1 $/mmbtu 0.3 6.6%
Long COMEX gold** Dec-12 21/11/2011 20/12/2011 1694 1628 $/oz -66 29.3%
Long Carbon EUA Dec-11 24/02/2011 30/06/2011 15.4 13.5 €/t -1.9 -12.1%
Long KBOT wheat ** Dec-11 20/04/2011 30/06/2011 964 733 c/Bsh -231 -26.4%
Long UK natural gas Q3-11 29/03/2011 26/05/2011 63.9 58.5 p/therm -5.4 -8.5%
Long LME nickel Jun-11 24/02/2011 26/05/2011 27501 22821 $/t -4680 -17.0%
Long European delivered coal (API2) ** Apr-11 27/01/2011 29/03/2011 114.5 125.7 $/t 16 14.4%
Short Comex silver Dec-11 27/01/2011 24/02/2011 27.1 33.1 $/oz -6 -22.4%
Long LME copper Jun-11 22/09/2010 24/02/2011 7833.0 9505 $/t 1672 21.3%
Long CBOT corn ** Mar-11 26/11/2010 24/02/2011 553.0 685.8 c/Bsh 245 55.1%
Short UK natural gas Summer 2011 19/10/2010 27/01/2011 47.2 52.5 p/therm -5 -11.3%
Long NYMEX crude oil ** Dec-11 19/10/2010 27/01/2011 84.8 99.3 c/bbl 12.1 14.2%
Short US natural gas Dec-11 13/08/2010 26/11/2010 5.54 5.12 $/mmbtu 0.43 7.7%
Long ICE cotton Dec-10 14/04/2010 19/10/2010 75.7 110.3 c/lb 35 45.7%
Long LME lead Dec-10 21/06/2010 13/08/2010 1851 2065 $/t 214 11.6%
Long LME copper ** Sep-10 10/12/2009 13/08/2010 7062 7143 $/t 345 5.0%
Long NYMEX palladium Jun-10 22/02/2010 11/05/2010 444 532 $/oz 88 19.8%
Long ICE sugar Jul-10 18/03/2010 14/04/2010 22.6 17.7 c/lb -5 -21.6%
Long LME Nickel Jun-10 10/12/2009 18/03/2010 16331 22760 $/t 6429 39.4%
Long NYMEX crude oil May-10 10/12/2009 18/02/2010 75.4 79.1 $/b 3.7 4.9%
Long ICE sugar Mar-10 10/12/2009 18/02/2010 23.3 26.5 c/lb 0.03 13.8%
Spread trades
WTI contango widening 19/07/2011 29/02/2012 0.38 0.41 0.03 -
Short position Mar-12 100.40 105.84 $/b -5.44 -
Long position Apr-12 100.78 106.25 $/b 5.47 -
Natural gas spread widening 15/12/2010 30/06/2011 0.63 0.41 $/mmbtu -0.22 -
Short forward Henry Hub Oct-11 4.49 4.43 $/mmbtu 0.05 -
Long forward Henry Hub Jan-12 5.12 4.84 $/mmbtu -0.27 -
Crude oil spread tightening ** 20/04/2011 26/05/2011 -0.36 -0.37 $/b 0.34 -
Long forward Brent crude Jul-11 123.5 115.1 $/b -8.45 -
Short forward Brent crude Aug-11 123.1 114.7 $/b 8.46 -
Gasoil spread tightening 22/09/2010 19/10/2010 -16.8 -15.3 $/t 1.50 -
Long nearby ICE gasoil Dec-10 669.75 705.50 $/t 35.75 -
Short further forward ICE gasoil Jun-11 686.50 720.75 $/t -34.25 -
US Henry Hub natgas 21/06/2010 13/08/2010 0.66 0.65 $/mmbtu 0.01 -
Short position Oct-10 5.01 4.35 $/mmbtu -0.66 -
Long position Jan-11 5.67 5.00 $/mmbtu 0.67 -
Note: Entry and exit prices reference closing prices on the day of publication.
** These trades include gains/losses from previous trades. Source: Reuters, Barclays Capital
14 March 2012 35
Barclays Capital price forecasts
WTI Brent US nat gas Value of OPEC basket of crude oils, 1999-2012 ($/b)
$/b $/b $/mmbtu
Forecasts 140
2012 110.0 115.0 3.05
120
Q1 101.0 110.0 2.85
Q2 112.0 118.0 3.05 100
Q3 107.0 112.0 3.05
Q4 118.0 121.0 3.25 80
2013 125.0 125.0 3.25
60
2014 131.0 130.0
2015 137.0 135.0 4.00 40
2020 185.0 184.0
20
History
0
1985 27.9 27.5 2.60
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
1986 15.1 14.4 1.71
1987 19.2 18.4 1.53
1988 16.0 15.0 1.71 Dates of most recent WTI price forecast changes
1989 19.6 17.7 1.77
1990 24.5 23.3 1.70
2011 14 October 2011
1991 21.5 19.9 1.53
2012 5 July 2011
1992 20.6 19.3 1.73
2013 24 March 2011 initiation
1993 18.5 17.2 2.11
1994 17.2 15.9 1.94 2014 24 March 2011 initiation
1995 18.4 16.9 1.69 2015 21 February 2008
1996 22.0 20.3 2.50 2020 24 March 2011 initiation
1997 20.6 19.3 2.48
1998 14.4 13.3 2.16
1999 19.3 18.0 2.32
2000 30.3 28.5 4.32
2001 26.0 24.9 4.05
2002 26.1 25.0 3.37
2003 31.0 28.5 5.49
2004 41.5 38.0 6.18
2005 56.7 55.3 9.48
WTI monthly averages 1984-2012 ($/b)
2006 66.2 66.1 6.98
2007 72.4 72.7 7.12 140
2008 99.7 98.4 8.89
2009 62.1 62.7 4.16 120
Q1 43.3 45.7 4.47
Q2 59.8 59.9 3.81 100
Q3 68.2 68.9 3.44
80
Q4 76.1 75.5 4.93
2010 79.6 80.3 4.40 60
Q1 78.9 77.4 4.99
Q2 78.1 79.4 4.35 40
Q3 76.2 77.0 4.23
Q4 85.2 87.4 3.98 20
2011 95.1 110.9 4.02
0
Q1 94.6 105.5 4.20
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Q2 102.3 117.0 4.38
Q3 89.5 112.1 4.05
Q4 94.1 109.0 3.48
14 March 2012 36
COMMODITIES RESEARCH ANALYSTS
Barclays Capital
5 The North Colonnade
London E14 4BB
Gayle Berry Suki Cooper Helima Croft Paul Horsnell
Commodities Research Commodities Research Commodities Research Commodities Research
+44 (0)20 3134 1596 +1 212 526 7896 +1 212 526 0764 +44 (0)20 7773 1145
gayle.berry@barcap.com suki.cooper@barcap.com helima.croft@barcap.com paul.horsnell@barcap.com
Miswin Mahesh Roxana Mohammadian-Molina Kevin Norrish Amrita Sen
+44 (0)20 77734291 +44 (0)20 7773 2117 +44 (0)20 7773 0369 +44 (0)20 3134 2266
miswin.mahesh@barcap.com roxana.mohammadian-molina@barcap.com kevin.norrish@barcap.com amrita.sen@barcap.com
Trevor Sikorski Nicholas Snowdon Kate Tang Sudakshina Unnikrishnan
+44 (0)20 3134 0160 +1 212 526 7279 +44 (0)20 7773 0930 +44 (0)20 7773 3797
trevor.sikorski@barcap.com nicholas.snowdon@barcap.com kate.tang@barcap.com sudakshina.unnikrishnan@barcap.com
Shiyang Wang Michael Zenker
Commodities Research Commodities Research
+1 212 526 7464 +1 212 526 2081
shiyang.wang@barcap.com michael.zenker@barcap.com
Commodities Sales
Craig Shapiro Martin Woodhams
Head of Commodities Sales Commodity Structuring
+1 212 412 3845 +44 (0)20 7773 8638
craig.shapiro@barcap.com martin.woodhams@barcap.com
14 March 2012 37
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Weekly Oil Data Review Japan One Year On

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COMMODITIES RESEARCH 14 March 2012

WEEKLY OIL DATA REVIEW

Figure 1: US Department of Energy weekly data summary (mb)

Crude oil 347.45 1.75 8.38 -3.2 10.9

COMMENTARY ON OTHER WEEKLY DATA

This page is intentionally left blank

FUTURES AND RETAIL PRICES

Figure 2: Oil and gas prices over past week

135 100 120

CRUDE OIL AND OIL PRODUCT PRICES

WTI-Brent $/b -17.28 -17.96 -18.86 -18.58 -19.00 -19.51

OIL TIME SPREADS AND NATURAL GAS PRICES

RELATIVE COMMODITY PRICES

DEFINITION OF US PADS (USED IN RETAIL PRICE AND INVENTORY DATA)

Subdivisions of PAD 1 PAD 1Y

US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY WEEKLY DATA

US DoE details 1: Crude oil

4 we e k 4 wk a v g 45 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11

Imports 8.72 0.00 8.93 0.65 7.9 40

10.5 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 16.0 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11

US DoE details 2: Gasoline

Figure 38: Gasoline inventories by type (mb) 200

Figure 39: Gasoline flows (mb/d) 1.0

Figure 42: PAD1 gasoline inventories (mb)

66 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11

US DoE details 3: Distillates

Heating oil 29.69 -0.88 -0.81 -7.3 -7.6

32 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11 180 2011/12 5 year average 2010/11

US DoE details 4: Jet, resid and total

Total USA 40.95 0.18 -1.14 0.4 0.1 48

Jet production 1.3 -0.0 1.4 0.0 0.7 36

Gasoline 2828 2114 1953 290 1552 8821 91

Gasoline -22 23 -161 14 3 77

Gasoline 86 -11 -10 2 56 232 0.60

US OIL DEMAND INDICATIONS

US OIL DEMAND: GASOLINE, DISTILLATES AND JET FUEL

US OIL DEMAND: RESID, OTHER OILS AND TOTAL

US OIL DEMAND: SUMMARY

Figure 75: Year-on-year US oil demand growth (thousand b/d)

Figure 76: US oil demand (thousand b/d)

OTHER WEEKLY DATA

SMITH BITS RIG COUNTS

COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS SUMMARY

Figure 84: Non-commercial positions on exchanges (thousand contracts)

Futures and options net long 28.3 -1.9 200 90

MARKET BALANCES AND PRICE FORECASTS

Figure 91: Oil market balances from four sources (mb/d)

Annual Annual Annual

Annual Annual Annual

Annual Annual Annual

Figure 92: Non-OPEC supply and projected annual changes

Figure 93: Demand forecasts and projected annual changes

Figure 94: Barclays Capital GDP forecasts

Figure 96: Closed trades

Barclays Capital price forecasts

COMMODITIES RESEARCH ANALYSTS

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