Performance Analysis _

CME GROUP
Group No. 05
Luis Enrique Carrasco Vega
Edward Hugo Vargas Candia

2023
 Summary of the Simulation
Demanded energy market
Assets to buy futures are WTI Crude Oil, BRENT Crude Oil
and RBOB Gasoline. Asents tu by fiutur ar WTI crude oil
end gasolain

1. brent crude

2
 Summary of the Simulation
Demanded energy market
we see the behavior after three hours our unrealized
PL _ goes a trend positive wi siii da biavior afder
zree auers our anrealized
Wti inishal crude oil seventi zree pounds naiti fai.

3
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE CHANGE BETWEEN THE INITIAL VALUE OF YOUR
PORTFOLIO ($ 100,000 ) AND THE FINAL VALUE ? INICIAL VALUE
GUAN JANDRED SEVEN MILLION DOLARS
SEVEN MILLION DOLARS
SEVENTI NAIN MILLION DOLARS

We have a change in the positive balance, the decision is a function of the investment horizon.
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 HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE CHANGE BETWEEN THE INITIAL VALUE OF YOUR
PORTFOLIO ($ 100,000 ) AND THE FINAL VALUE ? FAINELE VALUE
UAN JANDRED TUELF MILLION DOLLARS
TUELF MILLION DOLLARS
SEVENTI NAI MILLION DOLLARS

After three hours we are still in a trend in our positive account balance.

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HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE CHANGE BETWEEN THE INITIAL VALUE OF YOUR
PORTFOLIO ($ 100,000 ) AND THE FINAL VALUE ?

Reviewing the WTI production report

worldwide from the Trading economic
source, it reflects that the price per barrel according to the
projections of July 2022 where the price is the lowest within the year
with 3.68 dollars and statistically it is convenient to buy in the future
Crude oil, due to the dynamics of the price worldwide.
The application of the models have proven to be problematic since
the commodities are not bonds or stocks.
Commodities are different: they are not capital assets and are subject
to unique supply and demand forces that lead to complex valuation
dynamics.
Reviuving da WTI producshon riport, guoldguaid from da traidin
economic, surch, it reflects dat tha prais per barril acording tu da
proyecshon of yulei tueni tuenitu were da prais is da lowest waitin da
yir with zree pauds sixtiei dollars end statistically idis cónvenients tu
bay in da fiutur crude oil, due tu da dinamic of da prais guordguaid.

6
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE CHANGE BETWEEN THE INITIAL VALUE OF YOUR
PORTFOLIO ($ 100,000 ) AND THE FINAL VALUE ?

Reviewing the WTI production report worldwide from the

Trading economic source, it reflects that the price per barrel
according to the projections of July 2022 where the price is the
highest within the year with 8.86 dollars and statistically it is
convenient to sell in the future Crude oil, due to the dynamics of
the price worldwide.
Demand for and supply of certain products can only occur at
certain times of the year. Therefore, the demand for heating oil
can be higher in winter than in summer. This would result in
higher prices for winter delivery and lower prices for summer
delivery.
Reviuwin da WTI producshow riport guordguaid from da traidin
economic shur, it reflect dat da prais per barrel according to da
proyects of yulai tueni tunitu were da prais is tha jaijest within
da yir with eit paunds eiti six dollars and statiscally idis
convenients tu sell in da future crude oil, due to da dinamic of
da prais guordguaid.

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 HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE CHANGE BETWEEN THE INITIAL VALUE OF YOUR
PORTFOLIO ($ 100,000 ) AND THE FINAL VALUE ?

Brend oil production report worldwide from the bp.com source, it reflects that the price per
barrel according to projections between the years 2021 (tueni tueniguan) and 2021 (tueni
tueniguan) has increased by 69 % (sixti nain porcent) and for the period 2021 (tueni
tueniguan) to 2022(tueni tuenitu) it increased by 48 %.(forti ei porcent) 8
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE CHANGE BETWEEN THE INITIAL VALUE OF YOUR
PORTFOLIO ($ 100,000 ) AND THE FINAL VALUE ?

In addition to this, inelastic supply occurs when production cannot respond quickly to a
change in price .

There may be a finite supply of the product, for example, carbon-based energy sources .

Geopolitical issues may have an adverse impact on future supply.

While costs remain a critical variable for forecasting the price of raw materials, they are
more relevant for measuring prices over the long term.

In the short run, many costs are fixed, so excess supply can cause prices to fall below the
cost of production.

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WHAT WERE THE KEY EVENTS THAT EXPLAINED ITS PERFORMANCE ?

1.- RESEARCH THE OIL, GASOLINE AND NATURAL GAS MARKET.

2.- PRODUCTION LEVELS AND COSTS IN A PERIOD OF 10 YEARS
3.- ANALYSIS FROM THE MARKET
4.- PLATFORM LEARNING CME GROUP

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B.P. (2021)
Exajoules

100
150
200

0
50
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

Oil
1989
1990
1991

Coal
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

Natural Gas
1997
1998
1999
2000
Nuclear
2001
2002
2003
2004
Hydro

2005
oil

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Nuclear

Other renewables

2011
2012
2013
2014
coal

2015
2016
2017
2018
Hydro

2019
Other RE
natural gas

2020
world energy production 1981-2020 (Exajoules )

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 World Oil Production (2020)
Thousand barrels per day Top 10 countries
72.1% of world
production (88.4
US
million barrels per
16 476

Saudi Arabia 11 039 day) Saudi Arabia:

12.5% OPEC: 35.2%
Russia 10 667

Canada 5 135

Iraq 4 114

China 3 901

UAE 3 657

Iran 3 084

Brazil 3 026

Kuwait 2 686

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000

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B.P. (2021)
B.P. (2021)
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000

0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Brazil

2003
saudi arabia

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Oil production, selected countries

2015
2016
2017
Norway

2018
Thousands of barrels per day (1965-2020)

2019
US

2020
Canada
Russia

Iran
Mexico
China

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 trade _ world oil _ raw
(1,000 b/d) 2021

OPEC (2022) notes:

excluding intraregional trade 14
Top ten exporting countries in 2010
and 2021
2010 2021
1 saudi arabia 6 644.1 saudi arabia 6 227.4
2 Russia 4 977.8 Russia 4 510.5
3 Nigeria 2,464.1 iraq 3 439.6
4 IR Iran 2 247.7 Canada 3 195.0
5 united arab emirates 2 104.0 United States 2 980.0
6 iraq 1 890.4 united arab emirates 2,304.9
7 Angola 1 710.7 Kuwait 1 740.5
8 Norway 1 601.6 Nigeria 1 592.3
9 Venezuela 1 562.0 Norway 1 563.4
10 Canada 1 477.9 kazakhstan 1 323.0

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OPEC (2022)
 World natural gas production (2020)
US
Billion cubic meters 915

Russia 638

Top 10 countries 72.2% of world

Iran 251 production (3,854 billion m3) United
States: 23.7%
China 194

Qatar 171

Canada 165

Australia 143

Saudi Arabia 112

Norway 111

Algeria 81

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B.P. (2021) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000
B.P. (2021)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900

0
1 000

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Canada
Russia

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
meters (1970-2020)

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Natural gas producers Billions of cubic

2016
2017
2018
netherlands

2019
US

2020
Iran

algerian
China

Australia

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 Natural gas prices (USD/ Mbtu )

(National Balancing Point, UK)

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IEA (2016)
WHAT WERE YOUR SUCCESS FACTORS ?

1.- COMPETITION IN THE OIL SECTOR

2.- CRUDE PRICE BENCHMARKS
3.- WORLD SPOT OIL MARKETS

Benchmarks API sulfur

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Light 39.6 ° Sweet 0.24%

Brent North Sea blend crude Light 38.6 ° Sweet 0.37%
Light Sweet Crude Oil 37°-42° <0.42%
raw dubai 31° Sour 2%
OPEC Reference Basket 32.7º 1.77%
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Three main exchanges of crude oil and oil
derivatives :

• New York Mercantile Exchange ( NYMEX )

in New York (USA)
• Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE ) in London
(UK) ( Brent crude ; WTI) Formerly the International
Petroleum Exchange (IPE)
• Singapore Exchange ( SGX )

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 IF YOU HAD TO DO THE SIMULATION AGAIN, WHAT WOULD YOU CHANGE IN YOUR
APPROACH?

1.- MEASURE, DISCLOSE AND GET MORE INVOLVED IN THE STOCK MARKET.

2.- REVIEW THE LOCAL STOCK MARKETS AND THEIR WEEKLY TREND.

3.- ESTABLISH BASELINES FOR KEY INDICATORS (BASE PRICES).

4.- REVIEW GLOBAL IMPACT MOVEMENTS, HAVING A BROAD VISION OF SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC ASPECTS (RUSSIA - USA ).

5.- RUN THE TRADING MODELS OF THE RELATED ASSETS.

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