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Kristien Smedts
KU Leuven
Readings
1 Diversification
2 Mean-Variance analysis
Assume two risky assets e and d both with identical expected returns:
Rd = µ + ε d
Re = µ + ε e
Intuitively, this set-up implies that the only risk in the stocks is
idiosyncratic risk or so-called firm-specific risk
E (R1 ) = µ
2
Var (R1 ) = σidio
1 1 1
Var (R2 ) = Var εd + εe = (Var (ε d ) + Var (ε e ) + 2cov (ε d , ε e ))
2 2 4
2
σidio
=
2
1 N
N i∑
E (R3 ) = µ=µ
=1
! !
N
1 1 N 2
σidio
Var (R3 ) = 2 Var
N ∑ Ri = 2 ∑ σidio
N i =1
2
+ |crossterms
{z } =
N
i =1 0
Ri = µ + ε sys + ε i i = 1, ..., N
where
ε sys is a systematic risk factor with
expectation E (ε sys ) 6= 0
2
variance σsys
the systematic and idiosyncratic risk factors are uncorrelated, i.e.
cov (ε sys , ε i ) = 0, ∀i
the idiosyncratic risk factors are uncorrelated, i.e. cov (ε i , ε j ) = 0,
∀i 6 = j
Kristien Smedts (KU Leuven) Optimal risky portfolios 12 / 60
Diversification: a diversification strategy with many risky
assets and systematic risks
E (R4 ) = µ + E (ε sys )
!
N 2
εi σidio
Var (R4 ) = Var ε sys +∑ 2
= σsys +
i =1 N N
where for many risky assets N, the idiosyncratic risk component becomes
negligible
For many risky assets N, diversification eliminates idiosyncratic
risks, but not systematic risk
1 Diversification
2 Mean-Variance analysis
The simple models we have discussed so far are useful to introduce the
concept of diversification, but they are unrealistic
Markowitz received the 1990 Nobel Prize in Economics (together with William Sharpe
and Merton Miller)
RP = wd Rd + we Re
σP2 ≤ (wd σd + we σe )2
σP2 = (wd σd + (1 − wd ) σe )2 = 0
−σe
wd =
σd − σe
Special case ρde = −1
σP2 = (wd σd − (1 − wd ) σe )2 = 0
σe
wd =
σd + σe
For perfectly correlated assets (+1 or -1), all portfolio risk can be
eliminated by holding the right combination of the two risky assets
Kristien Smedts (KU Leuven) Optimal risky portfolios 23 / 60
MV analysis: portfolio with two risky assets
Global minimum variance portfolio
In the more general case where −1 < ρde < 1: portfolio risk can not
be eliminated all together:
σe2 − covde
wd =
σd2 + σe2 − 2covde
σd2 − covde
we = 1 − wd =
σd2 + σe2 − 2covde
What is the portfolio’s expected return and risk for given correlations
ρ = −1, 0, 0.30, 1? Also derive the corresponding minimum variance
portfolio.
Excel exercise
The investment opportunity set of two stocks
What is your investment opportunity set when following 2 stocks are
available to invest in (in % p.a.):
Stock 1 Stock 2
E (R ) 18.11% 9.66%
σ 32.64% 24.32%
E (RP ) = Rtarget
∑ wi = 1 and wi ≥ 0 ∀i
i
The portfolios obtained this way delineate the investment opportunity set
They form the minimum variance frontier
Excel exercise
The investment opportunity set of five stocks
What is your investment opportunity set when following 5 stocks are
available to invest in (in % p.a.):
Stock 1 Stock 2 Stock 3 Stock 4 Stock 5
E (R ) 11% 16.2% 13.5% 7% 11.2%
∑ wi = 1 and wi ≥ 0 ∀i
i
Excel exercise
The optimal portfolio based on five stocks
What is the optimal portfolio of the set of 5 stocks introduced earlier, for
an investor with mean-variance utility function and a risk aversion
parameter of 3 and 6 respectively?
1 Diversification
2 Mean-Variance analysis
The optimal portfolio combines the risk-free asset and the risky asset that
has the highest Sharpe ratio (i.e. the tangency portfolio) in such
proportions that investor utility is maximized.
1 Find the combination of stocks P with the highest Sharpe ratio (find
the tangency portfolio)
This tangency portfolio has portfolio weights that result in the highest
Sharpe ratio
E (RP ) − RF
max SR = s.t. ∑ wi = 1
wi σP i
For the case of two risky assets d and e and a T-bill, the tangency
portfolio is obtained with following weights:
we = 1 − wd
Excel exercise
The optimal portfolio based on five stocks and a T-bill
What is the optimal portfolio of the set of 5 stocks and T-bill introduced
earlier, for an investor with mean-variance utility function and a risk
aversion parameter of 3?
1 Diversification
2 Mean-Variance analysis
Note: each constraint comes at a cost, i.e. the efficient frontier will
be restricted and the tangency portfolio will have a lower Sharpe ratio
Degree of risk aversion only comes into play in the capital allocation,
i.e. when choosing the optimal point along the CAL(P)
Canner, N., N.G. Mankiw and D.N. Weil (1997). An asset allocation puzzle. The
American Economic Review 87(1):181-191. p. 183
Risk-free investing is not always risk-free: this is only the case when
the maturity of the instrument matches the investment horizon
When maturity and investment horizon differ, one is exposed to:
interest rate risk: maturity > investment horizon
reinvestment risk: maturity < investment horizon
In addition, the majority of risk-free investments are fixed in nominal
terms, not in real terms
this exposes you to inflation risk
to protect against such inflation risk, you could buy inflation-protected
securities
This could explain the advice that conservative LT investors should hold on
to more bonds as they become the risk-free investment
"Given this striking results, it might seem puzzling why the holding period
has never been considered in portfolio theory. This is because modern
portfolio theory was established when the academic profession believed
in the random walk theory of security prices. As noted earlier, under a
random walk, the relative risk of securities does not change for different
time frames, so portfolio allocation does not depend on the holding period.
The holding period becomes crucial when data reveal the mean reversion
of stock returns."
The impact of serial correlation on risk depends on the sign (and size)
of the covariance
This could explain the advice that LT investors can hold on to risk (= more
stocks), as the stocks are in fact less risky over the longer horizon
Crucial in this approach is that overall wealth not only depends on the
investment portfolio, but also on human capital (and thus labour
income)
In this view, younger investors can take on more risk (invest in more
stocks)
they can compensate realizations of high risk by working harder (see
Bodie et al. (1992), JEDC)
human wealth (risk-free or uncorrelated with stocks) is a large fraction
of younger investors’ wealth portfolio (Campbell and Viceira (2002),
Jagannathan and Kocherlakota (1992), JF)