Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Kristien Smedts
KU Leuven
Readings
Many of the quiz questions come from Kahneman (2011) - Thinking fast
and slow.
An excellent (and amusing) overview of the history of behavioral finance is
given by Thaler (2016) - Misbehaving: The making of behavioral economics.
Conventional finance
(some) investors behave rationally
prices are correct and equal to intrinsic value
Behavioral finance
(not all) investors do not behave rationally
1 Information processing
2 Behavioral biases
3 Limits to arbitrage
Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest
in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has need for
order and structure, and a passion for detail.
Similar mistakes have also been observed in other domains e.g. sports
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in
philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of
discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear
demonstrations.
Which alternative is more probable?
1 Linda is a bank teller
2 Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement
Relative to the other students, how would you classify your driving ability?
Did the global worldwide avocado production over the period 2015-2020
more than double (growth of more than 100%)?
What is your estimate of the growth in global worldwide avocado
production over the period 2015-2020?
There is, however, evidence that people also use anchors that are not
related to the variable that needs to be forecasted (e.g. the last
number that one has observed) → if such non-relevant anchor is
used, one’s forecast is biased by it
1 Information processing
2 Behavioral biases
3 Limits to arbitrage
Such behavioral biases are often the result of the framing of a particular
problem
Loss versus cost
Gain versus loss
Action versus non-action
Overall wealth versus segregated wealth
Level of wealth versus changes in wealth
Who of the two will experience greater regret over the episode?
Mr. Brown - Mr. Smith - both equally
When a decision turns bad, one often feels regret over that decision
The more unconventional the decision, the more regret one feels
Regret comes with a guilty feeling "I should have known better"
You have bought two $80 tickets to the theater. When you arrive at the
theater, you open your wallet and discover that the tickets are missing.
Will you buy two more tickets to see the play?
You go to the theater, intending to buy two tickets that cost $80 each.
You arrive at the theater, open your wallet and discover that the cash with
which you were going to make the purchase is missing. You could use your
credit card.
Investors will not dip into their capital with a tendency to keep on
to losers and sell winners (Shefrin and Statman (1985), JF); this is
the disposition effect
You are offered a gamble on the toss of a coin. If the coin shows tails, you
lose e1000. If the coin shows heads, you win e1500.
Will you accept this gamble?
To choose between the two options, you need to balance the two
outcomes of the game
the benefit of winning e1500
the cost of losing e1000
Upon graduation, your parents give you $1,000. Afterwards you are offered
the following two choices. Which of the two do you prefer?
50% chance to win e1,000
get e500 for sure
In addition to what you own, you are given $2,000. Afterwards you are
offered the following two choices. Which of the two do you prefer?
50% chance to lose $2 1,000
lose $2 500 for sure
This latter view implies that people are willing to take more risks to
avoid a loss, than to make a gain: they tend to be risk-averse with
respect to gains, but risk-loving with respect to losses
It is not the utility of wealth that matters, it is the reference point (from
which the options are evaluated) that matters
Being richer by e1,500 is then a gain wrt the reference point of e1,000;
but a loss wrt the reference point of e2,000
This explains why people tend to choose for the safe amount in the first
problem, but for the gamble in the second problem
Coval and Shumway (2005) find that CBOT traders are highly
loss-averse/risk-seeking depending on the reference point
they are more likely to take on more risk in an afternoon following a
morning with losses (risk-seeking)
their behavior also has important short-term consequences for prices,
but not for the long term (reversal)
1 Information processing
2 Behavioral biases
3 Limits to arbitrage
Convergence between intrinsic value and market value can take too
long, possibly longer than the arbitrageur’s investment horizon
Assume a fund manager who takes an arbitrage trade hoping that particular
spreads would decrease; if the spreads do not convergence immediately, and even
get worse initially, the fund will realize losses in the short-run. This puts that fund
at risk of losing clients and running out of capital
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
Kristien Smedts (KU Leuven) Behavioral finance and limits to arbitrage 33 / 50
Limits to arbitrage
Fundamental risk
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: the rise and fall of LTCM
Kristien Smedts (KU Leuven) Behavioral finance and limits to arbitrage 34 / 50
Limits to arbitrage
Implementation costs
Part of the divergence can be explained by the fact that this is not a
pure LOP-case (costs, expenses)
Siamese twins are firms that have two types of shares with fixed
claims on cash-flows and assets of the firm
such parity should be reflected in the ratio of the market prices
A famous example is the Royal Dutch/Shell company (Shell was
delisted in 2005)
Royal Dutch received 60% of cash-flows
Shell received 40% of cash-flows
this should translate in a ratio of the Royal Dutch to Shell stock price
of 1.5
Dual share classes exist when a firm has two sorts of stock
outstanding, with identical cash-flow rights, but different voting rights
In normal circumstances, both classes trade at a very similar price
except at times of battle for corporate control
except when liquidity between both classes differs a lot
In practice, we see that there are times in which the shares with the
more voting rights trade at unreasonable high premia (e.g. 15%-20%)
There are even cases where shares with the more voting rights trade
at a discount (e.g. McData shares in 2001)
this can only partly be explained by a difference in liquidity (see Shultz and Shive
(2001), JFE)
When doing such equity-carve out, a relation between the stock price
of the parent firm and the stock price of the subsidiary is thus
established
Lamont and Thaler (2003) showed that several tech stock carve-outs
displayed LOP violations
they showed ’negative stub values’: the implied stand-alone value of
the parent company’s assets without the subsidiary was negative
Story of Com/Palm
"On March 2, 2000, 3Com sold a fraction of its stake in Palm to the
general public via an initial public offering (IPO) for Palm. In this
transaction, called an equity carve-out, 3Com retained ownership of 95
percent of the shares. 3Com announced that, pending an expected
approval by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), it would eventually spin
off its remaining shares of Palm to 3Com’s shareholders before the end of
the year. 3Com shareholders would receive about 1.5 shares of Palm for
every share of 3Com that they owned."
Story of Com/Palm
In theory, we should have seen that the share price of 3Com should
have been at least 1.5 times the share price of Palm
In reality, however, Palm shares sold for more than the 3Com shares
the stub-value of 3Com was negative, while it was a profitable
company, even with cash assets worth $10 per share 3Com
One of the main determinants of limits to arbitrage are the costs that
come with investing
Clearly, when collecting and processing information, for sure hard to
get information, this is also costly: the only motivation to make such
costs is then that the benefits outweigh these costs
This leads to a paradox:
If the market is strong form EMH, no one will make costs to gather
information, as there are no benefits associated to this
but if no one gathers private information, then the market cannot
reflect this private information!
This modified version of EMH also implies that some active investors
underperform the market
the market adds up: the market portfolio reflects the average of all
trades
if some investors outperform the market, some others must be
underperforming