Analysing Demand Forecasting Methods

1. The third demand prediction suggests that the business professionals’ group is the one that
represents the most feasible target audience. This market segment is willing to pay the retail price of
$150 for the bundle, which is consistent with the third pricing model. As a consequence, there is a
respectable possibility of completing the programme.

2. The second demand forecasting model is unrealistic since it takes into consideration the entire
population, and it is unknown whether or not these people would be prepared to purchase the four-
week supply of the good in question. As a result, it is highly likely that any further calculations may
produce inaccurate results.

ROI 75 125 150

Model 1 -61.77% -36.28% -23.53%
Model 2 -12.61% 45.65% 74.78%
Model 3 -35.35% 7.75% 29.30%

Model 1
Demand Forecast (Figures in Million)
Overweight population 80.7287
Who are looking to lose weight 28.2551
Willing to pay for drug 4.2383 60% 20%
1st year customers (10%) 0.424 0.254 0.051
2nd year customers (5%) 0.212 0.127 0.025
3rd year customers (5%) 0.212 0.127 0.025
4th year customers (5%) 0.212 0.127 0.025
5th year customers (5%) 0.212 0.127 0.025
1.271 0.763 0.153
Total Sales 2.1869
 Model 2
Demand Forecast (Figures in Million)
Overweight population 80.729
Respondents ready to buy 9.687 60% 20%
1st year customers (10%) 0.969 0.581 0.116
2nd year customers (5%) 0.484 0.291 0.058
3rd year customers (5%) 0.484 0.291 0.058
4th year customers (5%) 0.484 0.291 0.058
5th year customers (5%) 0.484 0.291 0.058
2.906 1.744 0.349
Total sales 4.999

Model 3
Demand Forecast (Figures in Million)
Target group 4.3 60% 20%
1st year customers (30%) 1.29 0.774 0.1548
2nd year customers (5%) 0.215 0.129 0.0258
3rd year customers (5%) 0.215 0.129 0.0258
4th year customers (5%) 0.215 0.129 0.0258
5th year customers (5%) 0.215 0.129 0.0258
2.15 1.29 0.258
Total sales 3.698