TASK 3

a)

b) AWBM calibration

The AWBM was successfully calibrated to the average daily discharge recorded at Obi Obi
Creek at Gardners Falls stream gauge; the input into the AWBM was obtained from the SILO
meteorological data for Baroon Pocket Dam site. The period of calibration was from the 1st of
October 1998 to the 30th of September 2001. The initial parameters for the model produced
poor scores for the coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and percent bias,
therefore they were adjusted. Using Excel solver, the parameters were altered to obtain
favourable performance values while ensuring the parameters remained reasonable. To do
this the following constraints were placed on the solver: the sum of A1, A2 and A3 equalled
1; BFI, K and Ks all ranged from 0 to 1; and the initial storages were less than the capacity of
said storage. The AWBM parameters obtained from the solver can be seen in table _.

Paramet A A1 A2 A3 C1 C C BFI K K S1 S2 S3 BS SS
er 2 3 s i i i i i
Value 6 0.5 0.2 0.1 25 0 63 0.6 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 9 8 3 7 7 9
These parameters resulted in a coefficient of determination of 0.84, a NSE value of 0.84 and
a PBIAS of 10. The R squared and PBIAS are both considered good, while the NSE is
considered very good. Visually, the simulated flow is like the actual flow, this can be seen in
figure _. The R squared and NSE values were prioritised over the PBIAS during the
calibration as it was intentionally set such that it is not above 10 with no other attempt to
minimise it. From these scores the model is an acceptable representation of the real system
over the calibration period. However, the model is not an accurate representation of the
average daily discharge over the period of the 1 st of October 2009 to the 30th of September
2012. Similar to the calibration period, the AWBM, where the inputs were obtained from the
SILO data, was compared to the average daily discharge. Consequently, both the coefficient
of determination and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency decreased below a satisfactory level, at
0.44 and 0.32 respectively. The PBIAS did decrease over this new period to 4.1. Visually, the
simulated flow does significantly deviate from the actual flow, this can be seen in figure __.
Large rainfall events result in significant flow for both simulated and average flow; however,
it fails to accurately predict the magnitude of flow. This inaccuracy can likely be partly
attributed to the increased number of high rainfall events over the test period compared to the
calibration period. Another cause is likely the small calibration period which fails to
encompass diverse rainfall intensities and frequencies with only one major event and several
smaller events.

Simulated Flow compared to Actual mean flow over Calibration

period
120 0
Average Daily Flow [m3 s-1]

100
100
80

Rainfall [mm]
60 200
40
300
20
0 400
8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
1 99 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-10 -12 -02 -04 -06 -08 -10 -12 -02 -04 -06 -08 -10 -12 -03 -05 -07 -09
1 3 4 8 10 12 14 16 17 20 22 24 26 28 1 3 5 6

Date

Rainfall Simulated Flow Actual mean flow

Simulated flow compared to Actual mean flow over evaluation

0
Average Daily Flow [m3 s-1]

80
50
60
100
40 Rainfall [mm]
150
20 200
0 250
9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
-20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20
10 12 02 04 06 08 10 12 02 04 06 08 10 12 03 05 07 09
1- 3- 4- 8- 10- 12- 14- 16- 17- 21- 23- 25- 27- 29- 1- 3- 5- 6-

Date

Rainfall Simulated Flow Actual mean flow

c) Daily water balance

The daily water balance for Lake Baroon was performed using a water budget. At each daily
step, the inflows were added while the outflows were subtracted from previous day’s volume.
This can be seen below in equation:

V n=V n−1+ I−Q

The inflows to the system came from precipitation and the inflow from the catchment, which
was determined from the AWBM. The precipitation was converted to volume by multiplying
the area of the lake by the precipitation, which was then converted to ML. The inflow of the
system came from the catchment area, being 67km2, where evapotranspiration and
precipitation acted on the system.

The outflows from the system results from evapotranspiration, Mlake, and discharge from the
dam. Evapotranspiration was used instead of direct evapotranspiration as it encompasses both
evaporation and transpiration. In the Silo data, the evaporation was always less than Mlake,
meaning transpiration will occur over the lake.

The balance was conducted using megalitres, with flows being in units of megalitres per day.
The volume was then related to the storage curves to estimate the height of the water. This
was achieved by using the MATCH function in excel, where the row number was found for a
given volume of the lake. As the height increased linearly it could be obtained when the row
number was known, therefore the height of the lake was known for any given volume.

Once the water level surpassed the full supply level water was discharged from the dam to
prevent flooding. The volume of discharge could not be determined in the same way as the
lake height as the height was already known and the discharge did not increase linearly;
therefore, a simple model was constructed to simulate the discharge. This model related the
difference between the FSL and the water height and can be seen below in equation __. The
function has a coefficient of determination of 0.998 to the real discharge data and was
therefore deemed suitable.

H − H FSL

V discharge ( ML)=3288 ( H −H FSL )∗e 3.5

When the water level remained below 217mAHD there was an IF command used to bring the
entire function to zero, while if it reached 217mAHD then the function would be enabled by
multiplying it by 1. This allowed the discharge term to equate to something only when the
real system would discharge water. As the volume of water could be related to height, and as
height determined discharge the daily water balance was able to be completed as all inputs
and outputs have been determined. Once the water balance had been completed a large
limitation became apparent, the water discharged, in the daily time step, could potentially be
greater than the capacity of the lake. Therefore, after an extreme rainfall event where the
water level surpasses 223mAHD the entire lake will discharge and there will be no water
present. This is an extreme limitation with the given time step, as this one factor was the sole
contributor to the number of days where the water level significantly drops.

The initial height of the lake started at 213mAHD, or a volume of 50000ML. The number of
days where water was discharged was recorded, which came to 3767. The lowest height of
water possible is 175mAHD, as this is when the capacity is zero, therefore the height for the
<10% FSL would be 179.2mAHD. The number of days where the capacity is <10% FSL was
34, however as previously discussed these are solely due to the excessive discharge during
extreme rain events.

To alleviate the excessive discharge a more appropriate time step would be hours.
Additionally, the water balance does not include other outputs, such as seepage and human
use. For a more accurate balance in future these factors should be included.

Water balance (ML vs time)

120000

100000

80000
Water ML

60000

40000

20000

0
18-02-189025-01-190430-12-1917 5-12-1931 9-11-1945 15-10-195919-09-197325-08-198730-07-2001 5-07-2015
Date
 Water balance (mAHD vs time)
230
220
Water height (mAHD)

210
200
190
180
170
160
150
18-02-189025-01-190430-12-1917 5-12-1931 9-11-1945 15-10-195919-09-197325-08-198730-07-2001 5-07-2015
Date

d) Climate impacted daily water balance

The process for the water balance remains the same, however the input meteorological data
has been updated to include the predicted impacts of climate change. The projected increase
in temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed will result in increased rate
of pan evaporation and a reduction in precipitation. This increase in pan evaporation was
interpreted to result in an equal increase in evaporation and evapotranspiration, meaning they
will increase by 32%. Similarly, the reduction in precipitation was interpreted to be a direct
reduction in the amount of precipitation per day. This reduction in precipitation could refer to
a decrease in frequency, however in this model it only results in a decrease in intensity. With
these alterations to the inputs of the model the capacity of the lake will empty far more often
than the normal balance and will drop naturally instead of due to excessive discharge. The
number of days where there is discharge reduces to 1208, and the number of days with low
capacity is increased to 886. This clearly depicts the risks that climate change pose for water
security.
 Water balance CA (ML vs time)
120000

100000

80000
Water ML

60000

40000

20000

0
18-02-189025-01-190430-12-1917 5-12-1931 9-11-1945 15-10-195919-09-197325-08-198730-07-2001 5-07-2015
Date

Water balance CA (mAHD vs time)

230
220
Water height (mAHD)

210
200
190
180
170
160
150
18-02-189025-01-190430-12-1917 5-12-1931 9-11-1945 15-10-195919-09-197325-08-198730-07-2001 5-07-2015
Date