Flood risk management in Scotland: an update, S.P.E.L.

2007, 123, 102-106

For educational use only

Flood risk management in Scotland: an update
Tom Ball
University of Dundee

Table of Contents

Stern warnings

Flood risk and climate change: implications for Scotland

The EU "Flooding Directive'

New flood defence schemes

Sustainable flood risk management--Scottish legislation and policy

The maximum possible social and economic resilience against flooding, by protecting and working
with the environment in a way that is fair and affordable, both now and in the future

The role of private insurance in flood risk management

New initiatives and "natural' flood management

Conclusion

Journal Article

Scottish Planning and Environmental Law

S.P.E.L. 2007, 123, 102-106

Subject
Planning

Other related subjects

European Union

Keywords
EC law; Environmental management; Flood defences; Flood risk; Scotland

Legislation cited
Directive 2007/60

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Flood risk management in Scotland: an update, S.P.E.L. 2007, 123, 102-106

*S.P.E.L. 102 While the recent flooding in England (June 2007) cannot be taken as firm proof that climate change is happening,
heavy rain showers and prolonged periods of rain are in line with model predictions for future climate in the UK. 1 This article
examines how Scottish legislation and policy are already adapting, and offers some pointers to the future.

Stern warnings
In October 2006, the Stern review commissioned by HM Treasury 2 reviewed the scientific evidence on climate change and set
it in economic context. The well-publicised conclusion was that inaction would require greater long-term economic sacrifices
(1 per cent reduction of annual GDP to mitigate the effects, against 5 per cent to wait and cope with the expected changes).
While this assessment caused some controversy, it was backed up this year by the mitigation working group of the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ("IPCC'), who pointed to a time window of less than ten years for global action. 3
The IPCC conclusions have now registered with central government as is seen in the draft Climate Change Bill, which recently
went to consultation (12 June 2007). The draft proposes a legally binding target of 60 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide over
1990 levels by 2050. 4 Regardless of any reduction in greenhouse gases, a certain amount of temperature change (1-2%A1C
globally over the next 50-80 years) is widely regarded as "locked in', and adaptation to its effects essential.

The Office of Science and Technology anticipated this need by publishing, in 2004, "Foresight: Future Flooding'. 5 A
collaboration between over 80 scientists and stakeholders, this UK-wide report examined the flood risk effects of future
climate alongside socioeconomic scenarios and the best means of mitigating risk. This publication has included a discussion
about the implications for planning (see (2004) 106 SPEL 129). "Soft' management *S.P.E.L. 103 approaches such as land
management and planning have the highest mitigation potential. The report had a significant policy effect, changing the focus
away from flood defence, recognising that it will be impossible economically to defend all areas from flooding in the future.
A significant result was a DEFRA consultation "Making Space for Water', 6 which advocated a more "sustainable' approach
to flood risk management, focusing more on avoidance and adaptation to the flood threat and away from the (still current)
DEFRA policy of encouraging sound and sustainable flood defences.

Flood risk and climate change: implications for Scotland

There is some evidence that peak flow and flood risk from Scotland's rivers is already on the rise as a result of recent climatic
change. 7 The best regional estimates for the next 70-100 years point to higher rainfall totals and more intense rain concentrated
on fewer days, higher consequent peak river flows, and sea level rises of 30-60cm. 8 According to the Scottish component of the
"Future flooding' study, over 170,000 households are at risk. 9 That same study estimated the total economic cost of flooding
in Scotland at £31.5 m per year from inland flooding and £19.1 m from coastal flooding. 10

Economic figures are, however, a crude way of measuring the real cost of floods, which include great social and psychological
hardship. A recently published survey into the social impacts of recent flooding across Scotland indicated that the elderly and
those on lower than average incomes suffer greater intangible impact; for example, loss of irreplaceable items and difficulty in
obtaining affordable insurance because they live in a zone of high flood risk. 11

Last year, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency ("SEPA') published a map of river and coastal flood risk in Scotland,
showing all areas within a 1 in 200-year return period risk "envelope'. 12 The new map is a sobering reminder of the threat
hanging over several Scottish communities that have not had a flood recently and the need to plan for flooding in those areas
as well.

Many areas affected in the recent June floods in England and Wales were not considered at particularly high risk before the
event, and several flooded areas in Sheffield were well beyond the Environment Agency's mapped 1 in 200-year limit. Further
areas affected in England were relying on engineered assets that proved inadequate. In the villages of Bentley and Toll Barr near
Doncaster, a diversion drain became overloaded and deep water became trapped for several days. Widespread urban drainage

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Flood risk management in Scotland: an update, S.P.E.L. 2007, 123, 102-106

surcharges occurred in Hull and Sheffield. These combined floods are very difficult to predict, largely due to lack of knowledge
of the capacity of drainage infrastructure.

The Glasgow Strategic Drainage Plan, formulated in response to the severe urban surcharge floods in the Springburn/Shettleston
area of the city in 2002, is an example of a multi-sector collaboration (including Glasgow City Council, SEPA, Scottish Water
and consultants) attempting to understand the capacity of existing infrastructure and mitigate the threat of urban floods in that
city. 13 Results so far indicate that partnerships between these stakeholders have huge potential, but the time frame is decades
long. 14

The EU "Flooding Directive'

A further development focusing attention in policy circles is the forthcoming EU "Flooding Directive' (Directive on the
Assessment and Management of Floods). Proposed by the Commission initially on 18 June 2006, it was ratified, with
strengthening amendments, by the European Parliament on 25 April 2007. 15

The parent Directive, the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60 EC), was transposed to Scottish law by the Water
Environment and Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003 ("WEWS'). River Basin Management Plans ("RBMPs'), required by
that Act, are being drawn up by SEPA in advance of the 2009 deadline for the two major river basins in Scotland (Scotland
and Solway-Tweed). The Flooding Directive, once in effect, will require national legislation for flood risk management plans
("FRMPs') to be drawn up by 2015. Draft Article 9(2) stipulates that these should specify "appropriate levels of protection
specific to each river basin, sub basin or stretch of coastline, focusing on the reduction of the probability of flooding and of
potential consequences of flooding to human health, the environment and economic activity'.

The implementation timetable dictates that FRMPs must run alongside the second round of RBMPs, following on from the
initial 2009-2015 round.

Initial regulations made under WEWS were the Water Environment (Controlled Activities) (Scotland) Regulations 2005 (SSI
2005/348) (see (2005) 111 SPEL 109). Administered by SEPA, these regulate both abstraction activity and polluting actions
that may affect water quality. There is scope for a similar regulatory approach to deal with flood risk, possibly with SEPA at
the helm. However, future regulations governing flood risk need to stimulate action for risk reduction rather than merely act
as a passive regime. There is also need for stakeholder engagement on flood management, plus greater knowledge of the flood
hazard in particular areas than at present (particularly during the event, to "life and limb').

New flood defence schemes

The Scottish budget for flood defence provides a direct link between central government policy and spending and local
authorities' flood risk management programmes. Under the Flood Prevention (Scotland) Act 1961 ("the 1961 Act'), the
authorities have discretionary powers over watercourses flowing through non-agricultural land in their areas.

Authorities typically promote proposals for flood defence schemes in areas of defined need, based on a history of flooding.
Around 70 such schemes have been promoted since the 1961 Act came into force, although these protect only around 10 per
cent of the population at risk from inland flooding. 16

In 2004, the Scottish Executive committed £89m of funding to flood defence, based on 80 per cent grant aid to local authorities.
The funds are disbursed on a case-by-case basis for schemes that meet policy criteria (currently at least 1 in 100-year flood
protection standard, and a benefit/cost ratio greater than 1). *S.P.E.L. 104 Recent applications made by local authorities under
the 1961 Act reflect the trend towards combining hard engineering and "softer' mitigation measures. This trend is being further
encouraged by the new guidelines for local authorities currently emerging from the Scottish Executive. 17

Three schemes have come forward for final approval in the past 18 months, two of which exceed in cost and scale the largest
scheme previously built in Scotland (Perth). They are the White Cart scheme in Glasgow (currently costed at £50m), 18 and
the Water of Leith (£40m) and Braid Burn (£17m), schemes in Edinburgh.

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Flood risk management in Scotland: an update, S.P.E.L. 2007, 123, 102-106

Both the White Cart and Water of Leith schemes incorporate plans for water storage in new or existing reservoirs and storage
zones. The White Cart scheme will create nine hectares of permanent wetlands as well as three upstream storage sites. The
purchase of the necessary land required extensive negotiation with landowners, and numerous other objections also had to be
dealt with, ranging from the substantive to the merely cosmetic.

Consultation exercises for all the schemes took upward of two years, and the Water of Leith scheme went to a public local
inquiry in November 2004 due to outstanding objections. In approving it earlier this year, the Scottish Executive accepted the
reporter's main recommendations for a scheme that differed in several respects to that initially proposed by the City of Edinburgh
Council. Changes were proposed by the Scottish Rugby Union to protect the training pitches at Murrayfield stadium by shifting
the flood defence wall at Murrayfield to the riverbank. The loss of this potential flood plain storage will lead to an increase
in the height of some flood walls downstream of up to 80 mm. Work on the Water of Leith is expected to begin in mid-2008,
and advance work is already in progress on the White Cart and Braid Burn schemes (see (2005) 107 SPEL 3 regarding the
Braid Burn scheme).

These examples show the best efforts of local authorities to introduce the minimum amount of engineering possible to urban
areas while working within the existing policy framework. However, owing to the current economically focused cost-benefit
analysis, many areas may not qualify for such expensive flood prevention schemes, particularly where there are fewer economic
assets at risk.

Local authorities and the Scottish Executive also oversee the implementation of SPP 7: Planning and Flooding. As observed
in this publication, 19 this policy has had greater success than its English counterpart (PPG, now PPS25) in keeping fresh
development out of the flood plain, partly attributed to the use of stakeholder Flood Liaison and Advisory Groups ("FLAGs').
However, the slow turnover of the built environment means that large numbers of people and assets in Scotland remain at risk
in areas where flood prevention schemes may not get approval on cost-benefit grounds, or where they are simply not technically
feasible. It is in these areas in particular where the concept of flood "risk management', as compared with flood "defence' is
gaining currency.

Sustainable flood risk management--Scottish legislation and policy

Sustainable flood management was introduced as a duty on "responsible authorities' under the WEWS, s 2, the duty being to
"promote sustainable flood management, and act in the way best calculated to contribute to the achievement of sustainable
development'.

The distinctiveness of this legislative approach, compared to the more policy-focused one in England and Wales, has been
noted in the literature; it has been argued that it provides a strong driver for the transition from flood defence to flood risk
management in Scotland. 20

However, uncertainties remain over what "sustainable flood management' or indeed "sustainable development' signifies in the
context of WEWS. One important question is: how does sustainable flood management find a balance between sometimes
competing social, environmental and economic concerns?

A consultation on sustainable flood management is forthcoming later this year from the Scottish Executive. The content of the
document reflects two years of deliberations by the Executive's Flooding Issues Advisory Committee ("FIAC'). FIAC, a panel
of experts, planners and policy makers, provided a working definition of sustainable flood management:

The maximum possible social and economic resilience against flooding, by protecting and working with the environment
in a way that is fair and affordable, both now and in the future
The emphasis is on multiple objectives, delivered via the four "A's in the Scottish Executive's Flooding Framework (Awareness,
Avoidance, Alleviation, Assistance). But what constitutes "fair and affordable'? The new schemes described above were deemed
to be "affordable' on economic grounds, but for flood defences, there are maintenance costs, and even some quite new defences
may induce false security. The failure of defences in Milnathort, Perth and Kinross, in December 2006 (see p 106 below) and the
recent examples of drain overloads in England showed what might happen even under the present climate. What is of concern

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Flood risk management in Scotland: an update, S.P.E.L. 2007, 123, 102-106

is lack of knowledge about the condition of many of these defences and their supporting infrastructure, particularly those
under private control.

The role of private insurance in flood risk management

Many of the losses suffered by individuals in a flood are irreplaceable, and nobody can put back the time and effort and stress
spent on recovery. However, the availability of insurance has a great mediating influence on the risk borne by individuals and
the sense of vulnerability they feel. In the UK, the policy of the insurance industry is fluid; it reserves the right to withdraw cover
from areas it considers too risky to underwrite. At present (since November 2005, when the Association of British Insurers
issued a public statement of policy), cover for existing customers is being maintained, but for new customers in areas with
more than a 1 in 75-year flood return period risk of flood, and where no defences are likely to be in place in five years, the lack
of insurance could come suddenly, and soon. Availability problems are reported to be confined, for the moment, to England.
However, excesses appear to be increasing in flood risk zones with some in Scotland reporting five figure sums. 21

*S.P.E.L. 105 A sea change in government policy for risk management, for central assistance beyond the "Bellwin' scheme
for local authorities (which only covers emergency spending), appears unlikely. Scope therefore needs to be found within the
existing regime of private insurance to manage the risk for individuals. Any means by which the risk can be lowered to a level
that satisfies insurers, even if it cannot prevent the floodwaters entirely, can greatly help those in areas who will not benefit
from flood protection by means of "traditional' flood prevention schemes brought forward under the 1961 Act.

New initiatives and "natural' flood management

Some local authorities in Scotland and central government are already working within existing legislation to prioritise flood
risk management with an eye to insurability. This interaction is helped by the non-statutory Flood Liaison and Advice Groups
("FLAGs') set up to discuss and advise most local authorities on flooding and planning issues. There is almost universal insurance
industry representation on FLAGs.

Co-operative land management schemes in pilot zones, with local authorities, NGOs and landowners involved, are showing
potential for lowering flood peaks. In the River Devon in Clackmannanshire, restoration of wetlands and the creation of buffer
strips in the upstream river banks and ditches are showing that flow can be attenuated, with numerous ecological benefits.
These results have led the protagonists (the World Wide Fund for Nature and the organisation Mountain Environments Ltd)
to promote the potential of "natural flood management'. 22 In Aberdeenshire, a close tie-in has also formed between the local
authority and a stakeholder group (3Dee vision) focusing on land management for flood risk and water quality around flood-
prone tributaries of the Dee and other rivers. Flood risk is being lowered by maximising flood plain storage, with the residual
risk management occurring by promoting temporary flood defences. The potential for allying land stewardship techniques to
incentives for environmental enhancement under both Directives (under the Rural Stewardship scheme) 23 could be realised
through such initiatives, but it will require strong institutional backing to work.

Buildings in risk zones will benefit from temporary flood protection for small-scale floods (up to half a metre depth). Ideally,
they should be combined with resilience features that allow quick recovery from floods. Pilot studies are now under way in
several flood-prone areas in England, funded by £500m of grant aid, into best ways to fund and otherwise encourage uptake of
resilience measures. The Association of British Insurers is actively involved. 24 Further initiatives in England are encouraging
resilience in the house-building industry by a new Code for Sustainable Homes, with the stated aim to revise the building
regulations by 2009.

There is a strong argument that these sort of actions, taken together, can promote both social, economic and environmental
resilience against floods, even if they may not entirely prevent the waters reaching people and property.

Conclusion
The next 12-24 months are likely to be a key period for those involved in planning for flood risk management in Scotland.
There are great opportunities to link the operational implementation of the WEWS and the Flooding Directive with a sustainable
programme for flood risk reduction in which Scotland could provide a leading example within Europe. Realising this vision

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Flood risk management in Scotland: an update, S.P.E.L. 2007, 123, 102-106

will require close working among all the sectoral interests and public authorities involved, drawing the growing pool of good
practice that is emerging. The limits set up by the established legislation and a budget that could rapidly be consumed by
necessary, but expensive, engineered flood prevention schemes, are likely to provide a major stimulus.

The author is grateful for comments by Andrew Black, David Crichton, Colin Reid, Tiffany Vogel and Alan Werritty on an
earlier draft of this article.

Editor's note: a Flooding Prevention (Scotland) Bill, which aims to reform current flooding prevention law to allow for a
more modern and sustainable approach, was one of the 11 Bills announced by the Scottish Government in its "Programme for
Government' on 5 September 2007.

Tom Ball

University of Dundee

Footnotes

1 Note that rain and storm intensity is predicted to be greater in the winter, contrary to the 2007 events. Lower
rainfall generally is predicted in summer, but storminess may increase. See the UK Climate Impacts Programme
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios/ukcip02/ukcip02_head_message.asp - based on Hulme et al. (2002) Climate
Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
2 Stern N (2006) The Economics of Climate Change, London, HM Treasury. See Lloyd G and Peel D
(2006) 118 SPEL 127 for analysis of the impact of the review on land use planning. The full report
is at http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/
stern_review_report.cfm
3 See the IPCC assessment on the economic effects of climate change http://www.mnp-nl/ipcc/pages_media/
AR4-chapters.html
4 The Bill and consultation can be viewed at http://www.defra.gov.uk/corporate/consult/climatechange-bill/
Consultation closed on 12 June 2007.
5 Evans et al (2004) Foresight: Future Flooding, Office of Science and Technology, London. http://
www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_Projects/Flood_and_Coastal_Defence/
6 DEFRA (2006) "Making Space for Water': Taking forward a new government strategy for flood & coastal
erosion risk management http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/policy/strategy.htm
7 Werritty et al (2002): "Climate change: Flood Occurrences Review'. Scottish Executive Central Research Unit.
http://www.scottishexecutive.gov.uk/Publications/2002/03/10802/File-1
8 Werritty with Chatterton (2004) "Foresight: Future Flooding Scotland' Office of Science and
Technology, London. http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_Projects/Flood_and_Coastal_Defence/
Reports_and_Publications/Scotland/Scotland.html
9 This figure is subject to a review by the Scottish Executive based on the output from the SEPA indicative river
and coastal flooding map discussed below so may soon be subject to change.
10 Note also: Black A, Werritty A and Paine J (2005). Financial costs of property damages due to flooding: The
Halifax Dundee Flood Loss Tables 2005. For the domestic properties sampled, the median buildings claim is
£17k per property, with a further £7k for contents and £3k for alternative accommodation.
11 Werritty et al (2007) "Exploring the Social Aspects of Flood Risk and Flooding in Scotland'
www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/04/02121350.
12 The map is searchable online at http://www.sepa.org.uk/flooding/mapping/index.htm and flood defence location
can also be viewed for those defences on the Scottish Executive asset database.
13 A presentation on the topic given at the Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research
Annual flood risk management by Ian McNab is available at www.sniffer.org.uk/rise/exe/download.asp?rise/
lain_Macnab.pdf

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Flood risk management in Scotland: an update, S.P.E.L. 2007, 123, 102-106

14 Note that such partnerships are encouraged at the planning stage by PAN 79: Water and Drainage (see (2007)
119 SPEL 12), and by the duties to engage in the Planning etc (Scotland) Act 2006. The use of sustainable
urban drainage systems is also being encouraged for surface water management in urban zones (by PAN 61).
15 The proposed Directive text can be viewed under "Preparatory Acts' at http://eur-lex.europa.eu. All
amendments proposed by Parliament (which strengthened the Directive in parts) were accepted by the
Commission in May 2007.
16 Werritty with Chatterton. (2004) ibid.
17 See "Flood Prevention Schemes: Guidance for Local Authorities' information on the Scottish Executive's
website http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/Water/Flooding/Flood-prevention/guidance-la.
Chapter 5 (economic appraisal) and Chapter 6 (approaches to risk) are already published. Chapter 8 on social
appraisal will be among the next to emerge.
18 As at 17 May 2006
19 Crichton D (2004) SPP 7: Planning and Flooding (2004) 106 SPEL 129, 11-13. See also Tavendale A and
Black A (2003) "Planning Practice Under NPPG7: Planning and Flooding' (2003) 95 SPEL 11-13.
20 Werritty A (2006) "Sustainable flood management: oxymoron or new paradigm?' Area 38 (1), 16-23.
21 Accurate data are difficult to obtain. This observation is based on focus group comments from Werritty et al
(2007), ibid.
22 See "Slowing the Flow' and "Flood Planner'--available at http://www.mountain-environments.co.uk/tmenu/
flood_management.asp
23 Information on the RSS is at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/04/19163/35120
24 For more information, see the latest "Making Space for Water' update report at http://www.defra.gov.uk/
environ/fcd/policy/strategy/update2.pdf

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