Technology is turning the business of culture upside down
“W hy do we have to grow up?” Walt Disney once won
dered. As it launches its centenary celebrations on Janu ary 27th, the Walt Disney Company has sustained its appeal to used for streaming. Silicon Valley is of a different scale from Tin seltown (Amazon’s growing advertising business is already three times bigger than Disney’s) and its moguls have no need to the young and youngatheart. This year Hollywood’s biggest make money from streaming, which they see as an addon to studio will invest more in original content than any other firm. their main business. Hollywood initially wrote off the nerds. But It dominates the global box office, with four of last year’s ten big the nerds have enough money to take creative risks. Last year gest hits, and has more streaming subscriptions than anyone Apple won the bestpicture Oscar with “CODA”, a comedydrama else. Its intellectual property (IP) is turned into merchandise partly in sign language, less than three years after it entered the ranging from lunchboxes to lightsabers, and exploited in theme film business. The more fine content these new producers make parks that are churning out healthy profits even as covid19 lin and sell below cost, the greater the risk that older studios will fall gers. More than just a business, Disney is perhaps the most suc from the top tier of media into the perilous middle. cessful culture factory the world has ever known. At the same time, new technology is allowing those lower So the upheaval rocking the company today has relevance far down the “long tail” a better chance of reaching the profitable beyond its empire (see Briefing). Uncertainty about the future top. Inventions like game engines, which help with the creation profitability of Disney’s enormous entertainment portfolio has of virtual sets, are lowering barriers to entry. Generative artifi caused a rollercoaster ride in its share price. It threw out its chief cial intelligence, which can already make rudimentary video, executive in November and will soon replace its chairman. It may eventually lower them further. The first beneficiaries have also faces a rebellion from an activist investment firm that been nonAmerican film studios, which until recently struggled wants a board seat in what could turn into the biggest faceoff to nail firstclass special effects. No longer. Two of the world’s since Michael Eisner, a previous CEO, was forced out in 2005. highestgrossing films last year were Chinese—and when covid Disney’s trials are not just a boardroom drama. Similar crises are ebbs in China, expect that number to rise. China has yet to con unfolding at other leading culture factories, from Warner Bros to vert foreign audiences to hits like “Wolf Warrior 2” (tagline: Netflix. The reason is a technological revolution that is turning “Anyone who offends China, wherever they are, must die”). But Hollywood upside down. don’t bet that this will always be the case. China The continuing preeminence of a centenar already has a globally successful socialmedia ian like Disney has confounded many predic app in TikTok and produces video games that tions. Since the days of “Steamboat Willie”, are international hits, including Tencent’s Mickey Mouse’s first outing in 1928, there has “Honour of Kings”, which is the world’s highest been an explosion in the supply of video enter earning mobile game. tainment. Television, cable, home video and Perhaps the most dramatic way technology then the internet have offered increasing could disrupt the culture business is by creat amounts of choice. Anyone with a phone can ing new categories of entertainment. Young record video and make it accessible to billions of people, free of adults in rich countries already devote more time to gaming charge. More content is uploaded to YouTube every hour than than to broadcast television. Hollywood has been slow to catch Disney+ holds in its entire streaming catalogue. on, but its Silicon Valley rivals are snapping up gaming IP. Mi Many predicted that this surge of niche content would bring crosoft’s proposed acquisition of ActivisionBlizzard, whose down mainstream hitmakers. They were mostly wrong. Infinite games include “Call of Duty” and “Candy Crush”, is worth nearly choice in entertainment has ruined the companies which pro ten times what Amazon paid for MetroGoldwynMayer, home duced middling content that people watched because there was of James Bond and Rocky Balboa. Movies based on games are be nothing else on—witness the collapse in broadcasttelevision coming as popular as games based on movies. A series based on ratings. But those at the very top of the business have thrived. “The Last of Us”, a postapocalyptic game, seems to be a critical When anyone can watch anything, people flock to the best. Glo success. Sonic the Hedgehog was among last year’s biggest films bal streamers like Netflix and Amazon have more than 200m di and Mario is likely to be among this year’s. Nintendo is opening rect subscribers, once an unimaginable number. a new Mario theme park next month—in Hollywood, no less. Those who have fared best at a shrinking box office are the owners of IP that is already popular. As people visit cinemas less The mouse and the long tail often and competition intensifies, studios have pumped money The great creative factories of Hollywood will have to adapt if into films people will turn out to see even when they go only they want to survive. Another successful era is not beyond their three or four times a year. America’s ten biggest films last year reach. Disney’s century has been one of endless reinvention, in were all sequels or parts of a franchise; Disney’s upcoming slate business terms as well as artistic ones, as the company has includes an 80yearold Harrison Ford returning for a fifth out moved its output from projectors to cables to cassettes and now ing as Indiana Jones. It has not been a golden age for cinema, but bytes. It will probably continue to innovate. Still, there are alrea for those at the top it has been a profitable one. dy signs that much of the coming century’s popular culture will Now technology is shaking things up again. Online distribu be dreamt up in places other than Hollywood. For audiences tir tion has enticed tech firms that make the hardware and software ing of sequels, that may be a welcome twist. n