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Short-Term Fluctuations of PV Output in Japan

-- Evaluation Method of Fluctuations in Case of Large-Scale Integration --

K. YOSHIMOTO T. NANAHARA Y.WAZAWA

CRIEPI CRIEPI Chubu Electric Power Co.
M. KUBO Y. KATAOKA S. IMAI
Hokkaido Electric Power Co. Tokyo Electric Power Co. Kansai Electric Power Co.
Japan

SUMMARY

Large-scale integration of photovoltaic power generation systems (PVs) poses various

challenges in the planning, operation and control of an electric power system. One of the
challenges is the supply-and-demand-balance of a power system: the balancing can be a
severe challenge in future power systems because PV outputs can fluctuate much more than
those of conventional generators and their accurate prediction is highly difficult. Examining
the output fluctuation characteristics of PVs is thus very important to determine their impacts.
The ten major electric utilities in Japan have therefore launched a project to observe the
fluctuation characteristics of PVs distributed over a control area.
In this study, the short-term fluctuations of PVs are examined using observation data; the
short-term fluctuations here refer to the frequency components that the load frequency control
is responsible.
First, short-term fluctuations of PV outputs are examined by emphasising the spatial
correlation of solar irradiances across a control area. This is because the output fluctuation of
PVs distributed across an area is considerably affected by a smoothing effect, which is
governed by the spatial correlation among solar irradiances. To obtain data for the analyses of
the correlation, solar irradiance has been observed at 321 locations across Japan with 10 s
synchronous sampling since 2009. Moreover, in this study, the relationship between the
spatial correlation of solar irradiances at various points and the distance between the points is
examined using the obtained data.
On the basis of the results, a method of estimating the short-term fluctuations of PVs in a
control area is proposed. The method consists of the following steps: disaggregation of the
target area into square areas, the size of which is selected to make fluctuations of
neighbouring square areas statistically independent; estimation of output fluctuations in a
representative square area, provided that many PVs are integrated in this area; and summation
of the fluctuations of all the square areas, assuming independence among the fluctuations. The
results of sample studies, in which two types of spatial distribution of PVs in control areas are
assumed, show that fluctuations of the aggregated PV output are 1 to 2 % for the minimum
demand capacity of a power system on weekdays.

KEYWORDS

Photovoltaic power generation - Output - Fluctuation - Solar irradiance - Load frequency control -
Smoothing - Spectral analysis
kyoshi@criepi.denken.or.jp
1. Introduction
The capacity of photovoltaic power generations (PVs) is expected to increase significantly in Japan as
well as in many foreign countries. The Japanese government has set the target for PV installations of
28GW in 2020 and 53GW in 2030.
Large-scale integration of PVs, on the other hand, poses various challenges in the planning, operation
and control of an electric power system. One of the challenges is the supply-and-demand-balance of a
power system: the balancing can be a severe challenge in future power systems because PV outputs
can fluctuate much more than those of conventional generators and their accurate prediction is highly
difficult. Since the majority of PVs are expected to be mounted on residential roofs, the output
fluctuation characteristics of kW-scale PVs distributed over an area are thus very important for
determining their impacts.
Several studies on the output fluctuation characteristics of distributed PVs have been conducted in
various countries, such as Germany and the USA [1,2]. In these countries, short- and long-term
fluctuations of PV outputs were examined using the observation data obtained at 100 and 23 sites,
respectively. The ten major electric utilities in Japan have launched a project to observe the fluctuation
characteristics of PVs distributed over a control area to examine short- and long-term fluctuations of
PV outputs in Japan. In this project, solar irradiance, PV outputs, and so forth have been observed at
321 sites across Japan by 10 s synchronous sampling since 2009.
In this paper, the short-term fluctuations of PVs are examined using the observation data; the short-
term fluctuations here refer to the frequency components that the load frequency control (LFC) of a
power system is responsible. In Chapter 2 of this paper, a system for observing the solar irradiance is
outlined and, in Chapter 3, the smoothing effect among short-term fluctuations of solar irradiance
across an area is examined. Chapter 4 then presents the newly proposed method for estimating short-
term fluctuations of PVs in a control area in the case of large-scale penetration of PVs. The results of
sample studies are shown in Chapter 5.

2. Observation of Solar Irradiance

Equipment for measuring solar irradiance and PV output was installed across Japan from 2009 to 2011

The East China Sea Sapporo District

2009- : Solar irradiance, etc.

: Solar irradiance, PV output, etc.
2010- : Solar irradiance, etc.
: Solar irradiance, PV output, etc.
2011- : Adding measurement of PV
output
: Densely observed district
Tokyo District
Osaka district Nagoya district The Pacific Ocean
Figure 1. Observation of solar irradiance, PV outputs, and so forth.
[Note] The years in the figures show the years of installing the measurement equipment.

1
to evaluate the magnitude of output fluctuation of PVs distributed over a wide area, taking into
account the smoothing effects of solar irradiances.
The outline of the observation system used is as follows:
 Global solar irradiance is observed with thermopile pyranometers at 321 points, while PV output
is measured at 116 points.
 The observation points are distributed among the prefectures in Japan (47 prefectures) to
investigate a smoothing effect across a wide area (see Figure 1).
 Spatially dense observation is made in four metropolitan districts with several observation points
located within a square area with a side length of 10 to 20 km. The aim of this observation is to
examine the smoothing effect for the short-term fluctuations of PV outputs in a relatively small
area.
 The measuring systems record time-synchronized data every 10 s.

3. Analysis of Smoothing Effect of Solar Irradiance

The smoothing effect of solar irradiances was examined by inspecting waveforms of solar irradiance
fluctuations as well as by spectral analysis.

3.1 Analysis of waveforms of solar irradiance fluctuations

Fluctuations of the average solar irradiance, obtained by averaging the solar irradiances dispersed over
a wide area, become smaller than those of the solar irradiance of an individual site. This phenomenon
is called a smoothing effect.
To illustrate this effect, we compare waveforms of the average and individual solar irradiances in
Figure 2. The average solar irradiance is obtained from the solar irradiances at 42 observation points
dispersed over a circular area with a radius of about 200 km. Figure 2a shows original waveforms of
the solar irradiances, and Figures. 2b and 2c separate them into long- and short-term fluctuations with
a moving average filter. We use the filter with an averaging time of 20 min because long- and short-

individual point individual point individual point

1.5 1.5 0.7
1.0 1.0 0.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0 -0.7
1.5 1.5 0.7
1.0 1.0 0.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0 -0.7
1.5 1.5 0.7
1.0 1.0 0.0
0.5 0.5
Solar irradiance (kW/m2)

0.0 0.0 -0.7

1.5 1.5 0.7
1.0 1.0 0.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0 -0.7
1.5 1.5 0.7
1.0 1.0 0.0
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0 -0.7
********** ********** **********
1 1 0.5
0.9 Average of 42 points 0.9 Average of 42 points 0.4 Average of 42 points
0.8 0.8 0.3
0.7 0.7 0.2
0.6 0.6 0.1
0.5 0.5 0
0.4 0.4 -0.1
0.3 0.3 -0.2
0.2 0.2 -0.3
0.1 0.1 -0.4
0 0 -0.5
6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00
Time Time Time
(a) Original waveforms (b) Long-term components (c) Short-term components
Figure 2. Sample waveforms for long- and short-term fluctuations of solar irradiances
on April 25, 2011 in circular area with radius of about 200 km.
[Note] Short- and long-term fluctuations are separated with a moving average filter with an
averaging time of 20 min.

2
term fluctuations are often classified with a period of 20 min to evaluate output fluctuations of
intermittent renewable power generation in Japan [3]. The results show that the smoothing effect for
the short-term fluctuations is more significant: the ratio between the average and individual solar
irradiances is smaller for the short-term fluctuations than for the long-term fluctuations.

3.2 Spectral analysis of short-term fluctuations of solar irradiance

To examine the smoothing effect for the short-term fluctuations in more detail, the spectral analysis
was performed for the solar irradiances observed at 9 points within a square area with a side length of
10 km. Sample power spectra of the average and individual solar irradiances are shown in Figure 3.
The gap between power spectra of the average and of individual solar irradiances in the figure
represents the extent of the smoothing effect. The results indicate that the gap is almost constant for
periods below some hundreds of seconds and, for the periods, the power spectrum of the average solar
irradiance is about 1/N (N: the number of observation points) of that of the individual solar irradiances.
The above property corresponds to the additivity of variances for statistically independent (i.e.,
uncorrelated) variables. We consider the property in the method proposed in Chapter 4.

1.E-1
For solar irradiance at 9 observation
Power spectrum of solar irradiance

points located in 10km square area

1.E-2

1.E-3
fS(kW2/m4)

1.E-4 The gap designates the

smoothing effects.

1.E-5
For average solar irradiance
of 9 observation points 2011/05/13 Nagoya
1.E-6
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Fluctuation period (s)
Figure 3. Sample power spectra of solar irradiance at 9 points within square area with side length of 10
km; smoothing effects are observed in 10 km square area for period less than 1,000 s.

4. Estimation Method for Short-term Fluctuations of PV Output in Control Area

On the basis of the results on the smoothing effect, an estimation method for the short-term output
fluctuations of PVs distributed in a control area is proposed.

4.1 Outline of proposed method

The proposed method estimates the fluctuations of an aggregated output of PVs distributed across a
control area in the case of massive integration of PV systems. The PVs are assumed to have the same
rated capacity of some kW.
The method consists of the following three steps:
1. disaggregation of a target control area into smaller square areas (see Figure 4);
2. estimation of the fluctuations of PV outputs in a representative square area; and
3. estimation of the fluctuations of PV outputs in the control area by summing up fluctuations in all
the square areas on the basis of the additivity of variances.
As an evaluation index for the analysis of the short-term fluctuations, we define the magnitude of
short-term fluctuations illustrated in Figure 5. The index is calculated as the difference between the
minimum and maximum outputs -- in statistical terms, the so-called “range” of PV outputs -- within
20 min and its daily 99.7th percentile value is used for the analysis. This value has been used for

3
 PV output fluctuations can be
considered to be statistically
independent when the distance
between the points exceeds 10 km.

Figure 4. Disaggregation of control area into smaller square areas.

evaluating fluctuations of intermittent power INDEX

generation in Japan [3]. maximum output
PV output (kW)

4.2 First step: Disaggregation of control area

into square areas
The objective of the step is to divide a target
control area hypothetically into plural square areas
with the same size. The installed capacity of PVs is minimum
output
assumed to vary from area to area.
20 min
On the other hand, the magnitude of fluctuations of
aggregated PV outputs is assumed to be the same in
all the square areas in an area on a percentage basis Time
of their installed capacity. Figure 5. Evaluation index for analysis.
The size of a square area is determined to make the
fluctuations of neighbouring areas statistically independent. We thus examine the dependence of the
smoothing effect on the distance between observation points and evaluate the shortest distance that the
components with periods of less than 20 min are independent.

4.3 Second step: Estimation of fluctuations of PV outputs in representative square area

This step estimates the magnitude of output fluctuations of aggregated PVs with periods of less than
20 min in a representative square area, provided that many PVs are integrated within the area. This
estimation has to consider the smoothing effect appropriately.
Thus, we have developed two estimation methods, namely, the “correlation coefficient method” and
“coherence method” for the magnitude of the fluctuations (see Appendix). Their difference lies in how
correlation among PV outputs is modelled: the correlation coefficient method models the correlation
with a scalar index and the coherence method with frequency-dependent characteristics. Consequently,
while the correlation coefficient method directly estimates the magnitude of the fluctuations of
aggregated PV outputs, the coherence method estimates the power spectrum for the fluctuations and
converts it into the standard deviation and then into the magnitude of the fluctuations.

4.4 Third step: Aggregation of fluctuations in all square areas

This step sums up the fluctuations of the aggregated PV output within a square area for all the square
areas in a control area. Because of the assumed independence among the fluctuations in the square

4
areas, the fluctuation of the aggregated PV output in a target control area is estimated by the root-
mean-square (rms) calculation of the magnitude of fluctuations.
In this calculation, it is assumed that the magnitude of fluctuations in the representative square area is
applicable to all the square areas on a percentage basis of their installed capacity. To correct the error
due to this assumption, we use the correction factor calculated as the ratio of the rms value of the
magnitude of fluctuations at all the observation points in the control area to the magnitude at the
observation points in the representative square area.

5. Sample Results
Sample studies are conducted with the proposed method to estimate the short-term fluctuations of the
aggregated PV outputs in nine major control areas in Japan, provided that PVs of 28 GW are installed
in Japan. We assume the following two scenarios for the spatial distributions of PVs: the capacity of
PVs is proportional (A) to the number of detached houses and (B) to the area of inhabitable land in a
control area.

5.1 Size of square area

The size of square area is examined by the spectral analysis. Namely, the smoothing effects are
analyzed by the spectral analysis of solar irradiances at the selected observation points, the distance
among which are about 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 km, in four metropolitan districts, namely, Sapporo, Tokyo,
Nagoya, and Osaka. In this study, the gap, which is determined between the power spectra of the
average and individual solar irradiances as described in Section 4.2, is used to examine the smoothing
effects. The results show that solar irradiances are independent of the observation points, the distance
between which exceeds 10 km, in days with large fluctuations of solar irradiances although their
correlation considerably varies from day to day. We thus selected 10 km as the side length of the
square area shown in Figure 4.

5.2 Magnitude of fluctuations in square area

The magnitude of short-term output fluctuations of PVs in a square area (10km x 10km) is estimated
by the correlation coefficient and coherence methods mentioned in Section 4.3. The results for
Sapporo, Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka districts during spring (from April 15 to May 15) in 2011 are
shown in Figure 6. Although we perform the analysis throughout the year of 2011, the results for
spring are shown because solar irradiance is large and electricity demand is small in this season

50
Fluctuation of PV outputs in 10 km square area

2011 3
Fluctuation of PV output (%)
(ratio to system capacity during

40
(% of rated power of PV)

light load period)

2
30

20 1

Correlation coefficient method

10 Coherence method
0
Proportional to Proportional to area
number of detached of inhabitable land
0 houses
Sapporo Tokyo Nagoya Osaka PV distribution
Figure 6. Estimated output fluctuations of Figure 7. Estimated fluctuations of
aggregated PVs in square areas aggregated PVs in nine major control areas;
(10km x 10km) for 20 min; two scenarios are assumed for spatial
the average for the top three days is depicted. distribution of PVs.

5
compared with the other seasons in Japan. In the figure, the bar depicts the range of the average
magnitude of the output fluctuations within 20 min for the top three days in each control area.
The results show that the output fluctuations of the aggregated PVs within 20 min in the square area
can reach 30 to 50% of their rated capacity. Therefore, the values (30 to 50%) are used as a
representative magnitude of the output fluctuations of PVs in a square area.
5.3 Magnitude of fluctuations in control areas
The magnitude of output fluctuations of PVs is estimated for 9 major control areas in Japan by the
method described in Section 4.4. The obtained results are shown in Fig. 7, and they are expressed as a
percentage of the minimum load of a power on weekdays in April and May of 2011. This estimation is
performed for the two scenarios mentioned above: the PV capacity in a square area is proportional to
the number of detached houses (scenario A) and to the area of inhabitable land (scenario B).
The results indicate that the output fluctuations of the aggregated PVs in the control areas are roughly
1 to 2 % for their minimum load. The magnitude of fluctuations for scenario A is larger than that for
scenario B; the reason for this difference is that PV installation is more concentrated in some control
areas in scenario A than in scenario B.

6. Conclusion
The short-term fluctuation characteristics were examined for kW-scale PVs distributed over a control
area. Analyzing the short-term fluctuations of solar irradiance, we found that smoothing effects for
solar irradiances are observed on the kilometre scale. We then proposed an estimation method for
short-term fluctuations of PVs in a control area. The results of sample studies showed that fluctuations
of aggregated PV output are 1 to 2 % for the minimum demand capacity on weekdays in a control area.
In this study, we use the observation data obtained in the project supported by METI (Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry): “Power System Stabilization under Large-Scale Integration of
Distributed Generation with New Energy”. We would like to acknowledge all the members of the
project for permitting us to use the data and for giving us valuable comments on the paper.

APPENDIX

(1) Correlation coefficient method

The standard deviation of the average output of PVs is given by
σ Mav 2 = 12  ∑ σ i + ∑ ∑ rijσ iσ j  ,
2
(1)
M  i i j ≠i 
where M is the number of PV sites, σ Mav and σ i are the standard deviations of the average output of
PVs and the output of i-th PV, respectively, and rij is the correlation coefficient between PV outputs of
sites i and j.
If the correlation between any pair of PVs is zero in Equation (1) (i.e., the PV outputs are independent),
the standard deviation of the average output is derived as (additivity of variances)
σ Mav 2 = 12 ∑ σ i 2 . (2)
M i
It is assumed that Equation (2) for standard deviations can be applied to the magnitudes of
fluctuations:
M M M
M 2 w=
Mav
2
∑ wi 2 + ∑ ∑ rij wi w j , (3)
=i 1 =i 1 =j 1, j ≠i
where wMav and wi are the magnitudes of fluctuations of the average and i-th PV outputs,
respectively.
Assuming that all the correlation coefficients are identical in eq. (3), we introduce the “average
correlation coefficient” rav :

6
 M 2 wMav 2 − ∑ wi 2
rav = i
∑ ∑ wi w j . (4)
i j ≠i
If the magnitudes of fluctuations are identical in all the PVs, the average correlation coefficient
becomes
ρ −1/ M
rav = M . (5)
1−1/ M
In eq. (5), the variable ρ M that denotes the ratio between the fluctuations of the average PV output
and those of the individual PV output is introduced:
wMav 2 wMav 2
=ρM = M 2 , (6)
1 ∑ w 2 wrms
M i =1 i

where wrms is the representative magnitude of the individual fluctuations.

Then, we evaluate the ratio of fluctuations ρˆ N for PVs at N sites, provided that the average-
correlation-coefficient remains constant in this case:
ρˆ N = (1 − 1 / N ) rav + 1 / N . (7)
The magnitude of fluctuations of the average output of PVs at N sites is estimated as
wˆ Nav = ρˆ N wrms =− (1 1 / N ) rav + 1 / N wrms , (8)
where wˆ Nav is the magnitude of fluctuations of the average output of PVs at N sites.
The magnitude of fluctuations in the case of large-scale penetration of PVs can be obtained by setting
N in eq. (8) to be sufficiently large:
wˆ ∞,av = rav wrms . (9)

(2) Coherence method

The coherence method estimates the power spectrum of the average output of PVs in the case of large-
scale penetration of PVs through procedures similar to the correlation coefficient method. The
difference of the coherence method with the correlation coefficient method is that the coherence
method considers frequency-dependent correlations: i.e., the coherence method uses coherence in
place of a correlation coefficient in the correlation coefficient method. The coherence method then
calculates the standard deviation with the obtained power spectrum and converts it into the magnitude
of fluctuations using the relationship obtained by regression analysis.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

[1] E. Wiemken, H.G. Beyer, W. Heydenreich, K.Kiefer, “Power Characteristics of PV Ensembles:

Experiences from the Combined Power Production of 100 Grid Connected PV Systems
Distributed over the Area of Germany” (Solar Energy, Vol.70, No.6, pp.513-518, 2001).
[2] A. Mills, R. Wiser, “Implication of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short-Term Variability
of Solar Power” (Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory (LBNL), LBNL-3884E, September,
2010).
[3] Electric Power Council of Japan, “Report of WG on Wind Power Penetration,” Oct. 2012.