A DEDICATED COMPUTER SIMULATION OF EVROS/MARITSA FLOODS

WITH THE AIM OF MITIGATING THE PROBLEM OF FLOODS WITH THE

APPROPRIATE MANAGEMENT OF THE BULGARIAN DAMS

Kotsovinos N., Angelidis P., Maris F., Kotsikas M.

Professor Lecturer Assistant Professor MSc Environmental Engineer
Civil Engineering Dep. Civil Engineering Dep. Forestry Department Hydro Informatics
DUTH, 12 V.Sofias DUTH, 12 V.Sofias DUTH, 193 Pantazidou 34 Katsantoni
67100 Xanthi-Greece 67100 Xanthi-Greece 68200 Orestiada-Greece 56334 Thessaloniki-Greece
kotsovin@civil.duth.gr pangelid@civil.duth.gr fmaris@fmenr.duth.gr mikekotsikas@yahoo.gr

Abstract
The basic objective of this work is to contribute in the fighting of the problem of floods in the
border region of the transboundary river Evros (Meric). A software program has been
developed, which requires as input forecast rainfall data for Bulgaria, Turkey and Greece, the
reservoir elevation of the Bulgarian dams at the beginning of simulation. Subsequently the
software program calculates (forecasts) a few days in advance the discharge of the river
Evros at various critical places, according to the way the Bulgarians will manage the water of
the dams. The program also calculates the time that is needed for flood waves that are created
by the sudden opening of the weir gates of the Bulgarian dams to reach the Greek borders and
the propagation of the flood wave along the Greek-Turkey transboundary river Evros. The
software can be used to study various scenarios with the aim of optimal management of the
water release from the Bulgarian dams a few hours before the occurrence of strong rainfalls.
The software has the ability to simulate the hydroelectric operation of dams, to calculate the
produced energy for various scenarios and to calculate the energy loss due to the flood
prevention management.

Abstract in Turkish

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Aim of the research

The river Evros is one of the biggest in length rivers of Balkan Peninsula. Its total watershed
area is 53000 km2. The 66% of the total surface area is in the Bulgarian territory, the 28% in
the Turkish territory and the 6% in the Greek territory. In the Bulgarian part of the watershed
of Evros a significant number of dams have been constructed. It is pointed out, that the 15
greatest dams receive the flow of the 34% of the area of the Evros watershed in Bulgaria.
Consequently, it is obvious, that in the Greek-Turkish downstream part of the river Evros
there is no longer a direct inflow of the waters of the watershed of Evros, as in the past, but
mainly the inflow of released quantities of water from the Bulgarian dams. Therefore, the
management of these quantities of water, that are released via the dams, is of decisive
importance for the floods that are created.

It is known, that after the construction of embankments in the last decade in the Greek and in
Turkish side of river Evros, floods are created at both sides, either by overflow or by fracture
of the embankments, when the discharge of the river exceeds 2500 m3/s. Studying the biggest
daily discharges, we find that in a 11 years period (1985-1995), there existed only one time
that discharge was greater than 2500 m3/s, while in the last 12 years (1996-2007) the critical
flood discharge of 2500 m3/s was exceeded seven times. In addition to the above, it is
mentioned that between 1844 and 1995 (151 years) there are 12 floods (less than one flood
each 12 years) reported, while between 1996 - 2007 (12 years) there are 7 floods (one flood
each two years) reported. We argue, that the above dramatic change in the appearance of
floods (6 times greater frequency) is probably a result to the change of the way of operation
of Bulgarian dams afterwards 1994, and not to the climatic changes, which of course exist in
the past few years, but can tot justify this change in the frequency of appearance of the
floods. Besides, the effect of climatic changes should be sought and proved in the
meteorological parameters (main rainfall, which surely did not present a 6 times increase) and
not in the floods, as the flow is controlled now mainly by the dams.

We assume that the values of the maximum annual flood discharges in Pythio of Evros
follow the distribution of extreme value of Gumbel and we analyze the frequency of
maximum values for two distinguishable time periods: a) from 1985 to 1994 and b) from
1985 to 2007. The results of the Gumbel analysis, that is to say the values of flood discharges
for each return period, are shown in Figure 1. The results show that there are significant

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differences for these two data groups. For example, the floods with a discharge of about 3000
m3/sec have a return period of 70 years based on the data from 1985 to 1995, and changes
dramatically to a return period of only 7 years based on the data of the years 1985 to 2007.
Probably this dramatic change is connected with the change of the way of management of the
Bulgarian dams.

Σύγκριση της of
Comparison κατανομής
the GumbelGumbel για δυο
distribution ομάδες
for two πλημμυρικών
groups of flood data.δεδομένων-
From 1985 to
Απο το 1985 έως το 1995 , και απο το 1985 έως 2007 .Η δραματική αλλαγή
στην κατανομή οφείλεται στην αλλαγή διαχείρησης των Βουλγάρικωνconnected
1995 and from 1985 to 2007. The dramatic change in the distribution is to
φραγμάτων.
the changes in the management of the Bulgarian dams.

ΠΕΡΙΟ∆ΟΣ
RETURN ΕΠΑΝΑΦΟΡΑΣ Τ, ΕΤΗ
PERIOD T, YEARS

1000
200
160

400

700
1.1

1.4

2.5

15

30

60
90
5
10000 8

8000
ΠΑΡΟΧΗ , m3/sec
DISCHARGE, m3 / sec

6000

.
4000

2000

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ΑΝΗΓΜΕΝΗ ΜΕΤΑΒΛΗΤΗ Υ=-LN LN(T/T-1)

Fixed value Y = -LN LN(T/T-1)
ΚΑΤΑΝΟΜΗ GUMBEL ΤΩΝ ΕΤΗΣΙΩΝ ΠΛΗΜΜΥΡΙΚΩΝ ΠΑΡΟΧΩΝ
GPITHIOn1995 και2007 GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION
ΣΤΟΝ ΠΟΤΑΜΟ ΕΒΡΟOF(ΓΕΦΥΡΑ
THE ANNUAL FLOOD
ΠΥΘΙΟΥ ). DISCHARGES OF
THE RIVER EVROS (BRIDGE OF PYTHIO)

Figure 1. Comparison of the Gumbel distribution of annual flood discharges for two groups
of flood discharges in the river Evros, at the bridge of Pythio. The floods with a discharge of
roughly 3000 m3/sec have return period of 70 years, based on the data of the years 1985 to
1995, when they have a return period of hardly 7 years based on the data of the years 1985 to
2007.

It is reasonable to assume that the Bulgarian private electricity production company (which is
in charge of the managements of the Bulgarian big dams) tries to “to maximize” the produced
hydroelectric energy, following the simplified principle of the maintenance of the water level
in the reservoir above the crest of the spillways, keeping the floodgates closed (maximizing
the piezometric head and the volume of stored water in reservoir). When a strong rainfall

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occurs in the watershed of the dams (which already operate at the highest reservoir level),
face the danger of dam overtopping. To avoid this danger of dam overtopping, the operators
of the dams open the gates. The peak of the discharge hydrograph due to the outflow
hydrograph from the spillway (see for example Figures 2 and 3) can be much greater than the
peak of the discharge hydrograph of the natural river, without the existence of the dams,
under the same meteorological conditions. It seems therefore that a hypothetical simplified
management strategy on behalf of the owners of the dams causes floods, that would not be
created under the same meteorological characteristics (rain) without the existence of the
dams.

Therefore, a better strategy for appropriate management should be advanced, which prevents
floods downstream with compensating the economic losses due to the diminishing energy
production upstream.

For that purpose, we developed a new computer software for the simulation of the
management of flood flows of the river Evros. The main reason, that led us to the
development of this new computational program, is the existence of the great number of
dams and mainly the simulation of their operation not only from a hydrologic viewpoint, but
also from the administrative, with emphasis on the “energy - economic” exploitation of the
reservoirs of the dams. The PC software that was developed (named EvroFloods, Figure 4),
requires as input forecast rainfall data for Bulgaria, Turkey and Greece, the reservoir
elevation of the Bulgarian dams at the beginning of simulation, calculates (forecasts) a few
days in advance the discharge of the river Evros at various critical places, according to the
way the Bulgarians will manage the water of the dams. The software calculates also the travel
time that the peaks from the flood waves (created by the release of water from the gates of the
Bulgarian dams) need to reach Greek boundaries. The Evrofloods software is used to study
various scenarios with the aim of optimal management of the water release from the
Bulgarian dams a few days before the occurrence of strong rainfalls. The optimal
management has as basic objective the prevention of floods downstream with minimum
hydroelectric energy loss upstream. The software has the ability to simulate the hydroelectric
operation of dams, to calculate the produced energy for various scenarios and to calculate the
energy loss due to the flood prevention management.

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Figure 2. Discharge hydrograph due to the outflow hydrograph from the spillway of the dam
of Ivaylovgrad when floodgates are opened.

Figure 3. Discharge hydrograph due to the outflow hydrograph from the spillway of the dam
of Topolnitza when floodgates are opened. Mean discharge for the 1η hour 1503 m3/s. Arrival
time at Greek-Bulgarian borders 68.6 hr.

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 1

2
1

Figure 4. Simulation of the hydrologic behavior of the river basin Evros with the developed
software EvroFloods.

According to various management scenarios that we have studied in this research, we find
that a bad management of the Bulgarian the dams seeking economic profit of some hundreds
of thousands Euros, causes floods and destructions of tens of millions Euros in Greece and
Turkey which are downstream. We quantitatively prove, that for extreme meteorological
episodes (strong rainfall) it is possible with appropriate operation management of the dams to
avoid floods downstream, without (most likely) any losses in the production of electric
energy. However, if due to the flood prevention dam management, profit losses occur for the
Bulgarian electric energy production company (mainly because of the decrease of the water
level in the reservoir and the non realization of the expected rainfall), then it is fair that the
downstream countries Greece and Turkey compensate the upstream country. For example, for
one scenario that was elaborated with the developed software EvroFloods, the energy loss
occurred in order to avoid the flood is roughly 5 MWh, valued about 400.000 €. According

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to this scenario, where a flood prevention management has been applied but the failure of
rainfall forecast has as a consequence the loss of energy production, the downstream
countries Greece and Turkey should pay for compensation of the upstream country.

Conclusions

We point out the European and International legislation which is related to the
responsibilities of the upstream country, which due to technical works and wrong
management, causes problems (floods, damages, social and economic repercussions) to the
downstream country, that for the same meteorological phenomena would not have occurred,
if the dams and their problematic management did not exist. We mention the recent
Community Directive 2007/60/EC/23-10-2007, on “the assessment and management of flood
risks”, where it is quoted in the introductive text, that “Member States should refrain from
taking measures or engaging in actions which significantly increase the risk of flooding in
other Member States, unless these measures have been coordinated and an agreed solution
has been found among the Member States concerned”. The downstream countries may
suspect that their floods are due to the unilateral undertaking of actions from the upstream
country for the management of the dams, and that for the same rainfall upstream, floods
would not be created if the dams did not exist.

This situation introduces an interesting legal question of European Legislation and it has to be
examined properly. That is to say, that Greece and Turkey can claim compensations, if they
can prove, that the flood discharges that reached the Greek-Turkish part of Evros were not
due to extreme meteorological phenomena, but due to wrong management of the Bulgarian
Dams.

We advocate therefore the best practice is the cooperation of the three countries (Greece,
Bulgaria, Turkey), exchanging detailed information’s regarding the rainfall in their countries,
the level and management of dams, improving the technical part of the flood generation
mechanism, and in crucial situations decide together the best management.