Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought in Pakistan

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought and its
Characteristics over Pakistan
By
Shahzadha Adnan
CIIT/SP12-PME-002/ISB
PhD Thesis
In
Meteorology
COMSATS University Islamabad

Islamabad-Pakistan
Fall, 2016

A Thesis Presented to
In partial fulfillment
of the requirement for the degree of
PhD (Meteorology)
By
Shahzadha Adnan
Fall, 2016
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A Post Graduate Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology as partial

fulfillment of the requirement for the award of Degree of Ph.D (Meteorology).
Name Registration Number
Shahzadha Adnan CIIT/SP12-PME-002/ISB
Supervisor
Dr. Kalim Ullah
Tenured Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology
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Dedicated
To
My beloved Father, Mother
&
Brave People of Islamic Republic of Pakistan living in
disaster prone regions and facing climate change disasters
each year.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
In the Name of Almighty Allah (‫ﷻ‬,)‫ ﷲ‬whose blessing are unlimited, who is most
bounteous and most merciful. I want to thank Allah Subhanwo Tallah and His beloved
‫ﷺ‬
prophet (‫ﷴ‬) who enlightens the world and is a role model for whole humanity. I am
truly thankful to Almighty Allah for giving me enough strength and wisdom for
confronting all the obstacles and evincing that I can overcome them.
My sincere thanks and gratefulness is due to my Ph.D supervisor Dr. Kalim
Ullah (Tenured Associate Professor), Head, Department of Meteorology, COMSATS
University Islamabad (CUI) for his consistent support, timely guidance, encouragement,
valuable advice and suggestions throughout the research work. His deep interest and
dedication towards the improvement of my research thesis will always be remembered. I
would like to express my earnest gratitude and thankfulness to Dr. S. M. Junaid Zaidi
(Excutive Director), Dr. Raheel Qamar, Rector, COMSATS University Islamabad
(CUI), Prof. Dr. Athar Hussain, Chairman, Department of Meteorology, CUI, Dr.
Qamar–uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Mr. Arif Mahmood (Late) (former Director Generals,
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), and Dr. Ghulam Rasul, Director General,
PMD whose sincere and endless efforts set forth the milestone of introducing the life
caring subject of Meteorology in Pakistan.
I am also greatly indebted to Mr. Hazrat Mir, Chief Meteorologist, PMD and
Dr. Azmat Hayat Khan, Director, PMD for their support, boosting up my moral and
giving me confidence to achieve this milestone. It was possible only because of their
consistent support and guidance. I would like to thank Dr. Muhammad Hanif (Chief
Meteorologist, PMD), Dr. Khalid Mahmood Malik, Director's PMD, Dr. Shahina Tariq,
Dr. Abdul Ghaffar and more importantly Professor Dr. GAO Shouting, Institute of
Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, for their
constructive suggestions and kind support that resulted in the completion of this thesis. I
would like to thank anonymous reviewers who reviewed my research papers, external
and internal examiners for their healthy comments and suggestions. This research work
was supported by Pakistan Science Foundation (Grant Number: PSF/NSFC-Earth/C-
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COMSATS-lsb (07)) and key project of National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant Numbers: 91437215, 41375052 and 41575047).
I would like to thank all the faculty members of the Department of Meteorology
who directly or indirectly helped me in the successful completion of my modules. I am
also thankful to the library staff for providing necessary support during the course. I
would like to pay special thanks to all my colleagues at National Drought Monitoring
Centre (NDMC) especially, Mr. Mansoor Ahmed and Mr. Waseem Tariq, and my friends
Dr. Muhammad Latif, Dr. Muhammad Umar, Dr. Rashid and Dr. Denis for supporting
and praying for me. I would like to thank National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), Global Precipitation Climatological Centre (GPCC) and Department of Civil
and Environmental Engineering, University of Catania.
Finally, I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to uncles, aunts and my

whole family members especially Abbu G, Maa G, Fasial bhai, Imran, sister, bhabi,
Shees, Muqadas and more importantly my beloved wife Kanwal and my sweet daughters
Zainab, Zahra and Hurrain for their prayers, tireless support and blessings, which led to
successful completion of this thesis.
“This journey is successfully completed because of you.”
Shahzadha Adnan
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ABSTRACT
Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought and its Characteristics
over Pakistan
The drought is among the most devastating climatic hazards whose effects remain
for years. This study provides complete characteristics and assessment of drought in the
country and surrounding regions. The long-term (1951-2016) observational gridded data
(0.5°x0.5°) of precipitation is used along with soil moisture. The present work focuses on
drought and precipitation climatologies over South Central Asia (SCA), their trends over
Pakistan, performance evalutaion of fifteen drought indices to monitor drought along
with the development of drought hazard maps of Pakistan, and lastly, shifting of agro-
climatic zones, their drought vulnerability and sensitivity of evapotranspiration in these
agro- climatic zones.
To investigate the inter-dependence of precipitation and drought recurrence in the
SCA region, the precipitation and drought climatology have been investigated during
1951-2010. Five statistical tests were employed to determine the trends, randomness and
magnitude of a trend at 95% significance level on the monthly and annual scale. The
drought of 1971 and 2000-2002 were the extreme droughts observed in SCA region,
whereas the drought of 1952 was the most severe in Pakistan. Furthermore, the trends of
precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration have been identified on the monthly,
seasonal and annual basis for different regions of Pakistan. Results show that the annual
rainfall has significantly increased in Punjab by 2.45mmyr-1 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(KP) by 1.55mmyr-1. Similarly, the highest increase in annual mean maximum and
minimum temperature is observed in Balochistan (0.021°Cyr-1 and 0.023°Cyr-1) and
decreased of -0.011°Cyr-1 in Gilgit-Baltistan and -0.034°Cyr-1 in KP respectively.
Evapotranspiration has significantly decreased in Punjab by -0.43mmyr-1 and increased in
Balochistan by 0.90mmyr-1. Annual country analysis shows that maximum temperature is
increasing at the rate of 0.007°Cyr-1 and minimum temperature is decreasing at -
0.006°Cyr-1.
Many indices have been developed, and are being used around the world to
monitor drought since a single index does not provide complete information regarding
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drought. Therefore, the comparison of fifteen different drought indices has been carried
out to identify the best indices to monitor drought in Pakistan. Their performance and
efficiency are evaluated by using different statistical tests for each index. The four indices
namely; standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspira-
tion index (SPEI), Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), and deciles index (DI) are more
suitable to monitor droughts in Pakistan. Furthermore, the drought frequency, category
and types of droughts have also been investigated in this research work. The observed
and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation along with soil
moisture data of Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) are used to identify the drought period
and duration. Six worst drought years were observed during 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000,
2001 and 2002 over Pakistan where two third of the country was affected. The drought
hazard index is developed to prepare the drought hazard map of Pakistan. Five drought
hazard classes have been defined and the results indicate that out of 145 districts of
Pakistan, 19 districts are extremely, 24 are highly, 56 moderately, 33 low and 13 very
low vulnerable to drought.
The study also identifies the shifting of agro-climatic zones and their vulnerability
towards drought in Pakistan. The results show that 87% of the country geographical area
lies in extremely arid to semi-arid climate. The maximum decrease of 8% and increase of
5% in the area are observed in extremely arid and humid zone over the past 30 years
(1981-2010) respectively. The analysis shows that intense and severe droughts have been
observed in extremely arid zones, whereas the frequency of mild to moderate drought is
more in semi-arid zones. A significant increase in annual precipitation has been observed
in arid regions (0.83 mmyr-1), whereas the maximum temperature has increased by
0.014°Cyr-1 and 0.018°Cyr-1 in extremely arid and humid regions, respectively.
Sensitivity of evapotranspiration (ET) due to percentage change (±20%) in
meteorological parameters has also been investigated in different agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan. Total ET demands have increased in all the agro-climatic zones with a
maximum of 16.9% for temperature and 6.1% for wind speed in extremely arid, 16.4%
for net radiation in humid and decreased of -10.9% for vapor pressure in extremely arid
zones, respectively.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 ........................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction
1.1 Scientific background ................................................................................................... 2
1.2 Rationale for the study .................................................................................................. 4
1.3 Aims and objectives ...................................................................................................... 5
1.4 Structure of the thesis.................................................................................................... 6
Chapter 2 ........................................................................................................................... 7
Precipitation and drought climatologies in South Central Asia and their trends over
Pakistan
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 8
2.2 Data and methods ........................................................................................................ 12
2.2.1 Rainfall variability index ...................................................................................... 13
2.2.2 Deciles index ........................................................................................................ 14
2.2.3 Standardized precipitation index .......................................................................... 14
2.2.4 Statistical tests ...................................................................................................... 15
2.3 Results and discussions ............................................................................................... 17
2.3.1 Analysis of precipitation ...................................................................................... 21
2.3.2 Analysis of drought .............................................................................................. 23
2.3.3 Trend analysis ...................................................................................................... 29
2.3.3.1 Annual analysis .............................................................................................. 29
2.3.3.2 Seasonal analysis ............................................................................................ 35
Chapter 3 ......................................................................................................................... 43
Evaluation of different drought indices and development of drought hazard map for
Pakistan
3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 44
3.1.1 Study area.............................................................................................................. 45
3.2 Data and methods ........................................................................................................ 47
3.3 Drought indices ........................................................................................................... 48
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3.3.1 China Z-index ....................................................................................................... 48
3.3.2 Composite index ................................................................................................... 48
3.3.3 Modified CZ index ................................................................................................ 49
3.3.4 Percent of normal precipitation index ................................................................... 49
3.3.5 Percentage area weighed departure ....................................................................... 49
3.3.6 Reconnaissance drought index .............................................................................. 49
3.3.7 Sc-Palmer drought severity index ......................................................................... 50
3.3.8 Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index ............................................ 50
3.3.9 Standardized precipitation temperature index ...................................................... 51
3.3.10 Standardized soil moisture anomaly index ......................................................... 51
3.3.11 Weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index .......................................... 52
3.3.12 Z-score ................................................................................................................ 52
3.4 Statistical tests............................................................................................................. 53
3.6.1 Analysis of drought indices .................................................................................. 56
3.6.2 Statistical analysis ................................................................................................. 60
3.6.3 Drought Episode (1999-2002) .............................................................................. 61
3.6.4 Development of drought hazard map .................................................................... 63
3.6.4.1 Precipitation analysis ...................................................................................... 63
3.6.4.2 Correlation analysis ........................................................................................ 68
3.6.4.3 Drought frequency analysis ............................................................................ 71
3.6.4.4 Severe droughts in Pakistan ............................................................................ 77
3.6.4.5 Drought hazard index ...................................................................................... 79
Chapter 4 ......................................................................................................................... 85
Drought vulnerability in shifting agro-climatic zones of Pakistan
4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 86
4.2 Data and methods ........................................................................................................ 90
4.2.1 Run method ........................................................................................................... 93
4.2.2 Regional drought identification model ................................................................. 94
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4.3.1 Shifting of agro climatic zones ............................................................................. 94
4.3.2 Statistical analysis in agro climatic zones ............................................................. 95
4.3.3 Evapotranspiration sensitivity in agro climatic zones ........................................ 107
Chapter 5 ....................................................................................................................... 116

Conclusions and Future work
5.1 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 117
5.2 Future work ............................................................................................................... 120
References ....................................................................................................................... 122
Publications ..................................................................................................................... 141
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 Topographical map of SCA region elevation (meters)………..………….. 13

Figure 2.2 Correlation of GPCC precipitation data with CRU, Precip-L, UDEL and
Ensemble mean………………………………………………...………... 18
Figure 2.3 Spatio-Temporal analysis of GPCC and station rainfall data of Pakistan... 19
Figure 2.4 Distribution of GPCC precipitation using PCA over the SCA region……. 20
Figure 2.5 Monthly average precipitation and pattern of GPCC in different regions... 22
Figure 2.6 Time series of Percent of Rainfall in the SCA region…………………….. 22
Figure 2.7 Rainfall Variability Index for the SCA region……………………………. 23
Figure 2.8 Percentage distribution of extremely dry, dry, normal and wet years in
the SCA Region…………………………………………………………... 23
Figure 2.9 Time series of rainfall deciles in different zones…………………………. 24
Figure 2.10 Total regional deciles-1 on decadal basis………………………………. 25
Figure 2.11 Time series of 12-SPI at different zones………………………………….. 25
Figure 2.12 Drought distribution (%) in SCA regions during 1951-2010…………….. 26
Figure 2.13 Times series comparison of RVI, 12-SPI and PCN rainfall in SCA
regions…………………………………………………...………………... 27
Figure 2.14 Decadal anomalies of precipitation (mm day-1) in the SCA region………. 29
Figure 2.15 Annual trends of precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum and
minimum temperature of Pakistan………………………………………... 30
Figure 2.16 Spatial trends of annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum and
minimum temperature of Pakistan……………………………………… 31
Figure 2.17 Time series analysis of annual rainfall (mm) of different regions of
Pakistan…………………………………………………………………… 32
Figure 2.18 Time series analysis of annual evapotranspiration (mm) of different
regions of Pakistan……………………………………………………....... 33
Figure 2.19 Time series of annual maximum temperature (°C) of different regions of
Pakistan……………………………………………………........................ 34
Figure 2.20 Time series of annual minimum temperature (°C) of different regions of
Pakistan……………………………………………………...…………... 35
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Figure 2.21 Significant trend analysis for rainfall, maximum, minimum temperature
and ET during winter……………………………………………………... 37
and ET during spring. …………………………………………………….. 38
and ET during summer. …………………………………………………. 39
and ET during monsoon. …………………………………………………. 40
and ET during autumn. ………………………………………………….. 41
Figure 3.1 Geographical location of Pakistan along with the In-situ meteorological
network of Pakistan Meteorological Department………………………… 46
Figure 3.2 Geographical distribution of annual rainfall of 58 meteorological stations
of Pakistan………………………………………………………………… 55
Figure 3.3 Spatial correlation of SPI to 11 different drought indices over Pakistan…. 56
Figure 3.4 Histogram of relative drought frequency classes of SPI and (a) Deciles,
PCN and PAWD for Pakistan during 1951-2014………………………… 57
Figure 3.5 Annual time-series analysis of different drought indices in Pakistan……. 58
Figure 3.6 Time-series analysis of (a) Deciles (b) PAWD (c) PCN of Pakistan…… 59
Figure 3.7 Magnitude of trend by using Sen’s Slope test of different drought indices. 61
Figure 3.8 Behaviour of different drought indices during long episode of drought
(1999-2002) across Pakistan……………………………………………… 62
Figure 3.9 Performance of Deciles, AWD (%) and PCN across Pakistan during
1999-2002 ……………………………………………..………………… 62
Figure 3.10 Comparisons between annual GPCC and meteorological stations rainfall
(a) Sindh (b) Punjab (c) Balochistan (d) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (e) Gilgit-
Baltistan (f) Azad Jammu Kashmir (g) FATA (h) Pakistan during (1951-
2010). ……………………………………………..……………………… 64
Figure 3.11 Correlation between annual GPCC and meteorological stations rainfall
(a) Sindh (b) Punjab (c) Balochistan (d) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (e) Gilgit-
Baltistan (f) Azad Jammu Kashmir (g) FATA (h) Pakistan during (1951-
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2010) ……………………………………………..………………………. 65
Figure 3.12 Percentage of seasonal rainfall in districts of Pakistan during 1951-2010.
The light and dark colour bar represents the percent of rainfall in winter
and summer Monsoon season respectively. ……………………………… 66
Figure 3.13 Significant trends of annual precipitation over Pakistan…………………. 67
Figure 3.14 Time series comparisons among 12-months SPI, percentage departure of
soil moisture and rainfall in Pakistan (1951–2010)………………………. 69
Figure 3.15 Spatial distribution of correlation between SMD to SPI (3, 6, 9, 12 and
24 months) for Pakistan…………………………………………………... 70
Figure 3.16 Drought frequency based on 3-months SPI (dry period) of Pakistan over
1951–2010…………………….………………………………………….. 72
Figure 3.17 Drought frequency based on 6-months SPI (meteorological drought) of
Pakistan over 1951–2010…...…………………………………………….. 73
Figure 3.18 Drought frequency based on 9-months SPI (agriculture drought) of
Pakistan over 1951–2010……………………………………...………….. 74
Figure 3.19 Drought frequency based on 12-months SPI (hydrological drought) of
Pakistan over 1951–2010…………………………………………….…… 75
Figure 3.20 Drought frequency based on 24-month SPI (extreme hydrological
drought) of Pakistan over 1951–2010…………………………..………… 76
Figure 3.21 12-months SPI of most severe historical drought years in Pakistan……. 78
Figure 3.22 Soil moisture anomaly (%) of most severe historical drought years in
Pakistan..……………………………………………………………….. 78
Figure 3.23 Water inflow and outflow (MAF) of Tarbela reservoir in Pakistan (1987-
2016).…………….………………………………………………...……... 79
Figure 3.24 Categories and intensity of drought in 145 districts of Pakistan…………. 80
Figure 3.25 Drought hazard map of Pakistan………………………………………….. 82
Figure 4.1 Precipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum) climatology

(1981–2010) of different agro-climate zones of Pakistan: (a) extremely
arid, (b) arid, (c) semi-arid, and (d) humid…………………………..…… 95
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Figure 4.2 Agro-climatic classification of Pakistan during 1951–2010. (a) 1951–
1980; (b) 1981–2010……………………………………………………… 96
Figure 4.3 Time series of 12 months SPI (drought year) in different agro-climatic
zones of Pakistan (a) extremely arid (b) arid (c) semi-arid (d) humid……. 98
Figure 4.4 Regional analysis based on run method of all agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan: (a) rainfall deficit (mm),(b) area deficit (%), (c) 12-months SPI. 99
Figure 4.5 Time series analysis of annual precipitation (mm), maximum and
minimum temperature (°C) in extremely arid zones……………………… 100
minimum temperature (°C) in arid zones…………………………………. 102
minimum temperature (°C) in semi-arid zones…………………………… 104
minimum temperature (°C) in humid zones……………………………… 105
Figure 4.9 Percentage change in meteorological parameters (a) temperature (b) net
radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in extremely arid region of
Pakistan…………………………………………………………………… 108
radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in arid region of Pakistan... 108
radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in semi-arid region of
Pakistan…………………………………………………………………… 110
radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in humid region of Pakistan.. 110
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1 Classification of drought based on deciles index…………………............... 14

Table 2.2 Drought classification by SPI values and corresponding events probability.. 15
Table 2.3 Drought characteristics at 12-months SPI in SCA regions………………… 26
Table 2.4 Statistical parameters of monthly precipitation of SCA regions (1951-2010) 27
Table 2.5 Trend magnitude of monthly precipitation (mm) using Sen’s slope method
at different significance level..……………………………………………… 28
Table 2.6 Results of the statistical tests for the annual precipitation over the period
1951-2010…………………………………………………………………… 28
Table 2.7 Seasonal analysis of meteorological parameters of different provinces of
Pakistan……………………………………………………………………... 36
Table 3.1 Drought indices values and their classes…………………………………… 53
Table 3.2 Statistical equation used for error estimation and performance of
models………………………………………………………………...…… 54
Table 3.3 Statistical tests of performance for different drought indices across Pakistan 61
Table 3.4 Drought monitoring indicator for Pakistan…………………………………. 68
Table 3.5 Correlation analysis between ARD, 12-SPI and SMD for different regions
of Pakistan…………………………………………………………………... 69
Table 3.6 Drought categories, percentage of area affected, intensity and return period 81
for districts of Pakistan………………………………………………………
Table 3.7 Criteria used for the hazard assessment of drought using percentage of
normal rainfall for different regions of Pakistan……………………………. 82
Table 3.8 The severity class used in the hazard map of Pakistan……………………… 82
Table 4.1 Climatic zones of Pakistan based on moisture index……………………….. 91
Table 4.2 Statistical parameters of annual rainfall during 1951–2014 for different
agro-climatic zones of Pakistan……………………………………………... 98
Table 4.3 Drought type, intensity and amount in different agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan……………………………………………………………………... 99
Table 4.4 Trend analysis of monthly rainfall (mm), maximum and minimum
temperature (°C) in extremely arid zones…………………………………… 100
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temperature (°C) in arid zones………………………………………………. 102
temperature (°C) in semi-arid zones……………………………………….... 104
temperature (°C) in humid zones…………………………………………… 105
Table 4.8 Seasonal trend analysis of precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum
temperature (°C) in agro-climatic zones……………………………………. 106
Table 4.9 Annual changes in total estimated evapotranspiration with respect to
change in meteorological parameters in different agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan……………………………………………………………………... 113
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AJK Azad Jammu Kashmir
AO Atlantic oscillation
AMS American Meteorological Society
ARVI Annual Rainfall Variability Index
AWR Area Weighted Rainfall
CCSP Climate Change Science Program
CDPC Climate Data Processing Center
CI Composite Index
CMI Crop Moisture Index
CPC Climate Prediction Center
CRU Climatic Research Unit
CZI China Z-Index
DHI Drought Hazard Index
DI Deciles Index
ED Extreme Drought
ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation
ETo Reference crop evapotranspiration
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas
GB Gilgit Baltistan
GIS Geographic Information System
GoP Government of Pakistan
GPCC Global Precipitation Climatological Centre
IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change
KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Institute
KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
MCZI Modified China Z-Index
MK Mann-Kendall
NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NDMA National Disaster Management Authority
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NOAA National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
MAD Mean Area Deficit
MD Mean Deficit
MEA Millennium Assessment Report
MID Mild Drought
PAWD Percentage Area Weighted Departure
PCA Principal Component Analysis
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index
PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department
PM Penman Monteith
PN Percent of Normal
PNPI Percent of normal Precipitation Index
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways
RDI Reconnaissance Drought Index
REDIM Regional Drought Identification Model
RVI Rainfall Variability Index
SCA South Central Asia
Sc-PDSI Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index
SD Standard Deviation
SPEI Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
SPI Standardized Precipitation Index
SPTI Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index
SSMAI Standardized Soil Moisture Anomaly Index
UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
UDel University of Delaware
UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization
WASPI Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation Index
WDs Western Disturbances
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Chapter 1
Introduction
1
1.1 Scientific background:
Drought is one of the most critical water-related hazards. As demonstrated by Wu
et al. (2001), it affects a large number of people worldwide and causes tremendous
economic losses, environmental damages and social hardships. The environmental and
socio-economic impacts of drought are controlled, to some extent, by the duration of
drought, rather than its severity, because recovery from the cumulative damage of
consecutive drought years is more difficult (Cook et al., 2007). There is no universal
definition of the drought as it varies from one region to another region as discussed by
Smakhtin and Schipper (2008).
The dynamics of the drought varies from region to region and it is the least
understood of all weather phenomena (Obasi, 1994). Moreover, as described by Wilhite
(2000), droughts are difficult to define, detect and monitor. Le Houerou (1996) stated that
drought is experienced in all types of agricultural land of the world, while arid areas are
most vulnerable to drought.
Generally, drought is defined as a significant decrease of water over a long period
of time over an area, which implies that drought analysis should be considered in three
dimensions i.e. severity, time or duration and area (Tsakiris et al., 2007). Drought can be
classified into three major types i.e. meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological
droughts. As described by Agnew (1990) the meteorological drought is defined as below
normal precipitation in a certain period. Agnew and Warran (1996) defined the
agriculture drought as spatial phenomena in which agricultural product of an area reduces
due to the reduced supply of soil moisture. Similarly, hydrological drought is due to
deficiencies in surface and subsurface water accumulation (Palmer, 1965).
Drought index is helpful if it provides the simple, clear and quantitative
assessment of the major drought characteristics like intensity, duration and its spatial
coverage (Hayes, 2000). The drought has a relatively strong spatial component in arid
regions due to the spatial variability of rainfall (Sen, 2008). Nearby areas, thus have
different exposure to drought depending upon the proximity to major rain belts. For
example, local areas and watershed regions that lie within such rain belts are directly
influenced by drought due to the deficiencies of rainfall. Downstream areas, which
mostly depend on water supply from the river flow and the runoff, are also vulnerable to
2
drought, as the low water supplies would affect their agriculture and other domestic
activities. The climatic sources of drought are presently unknown; however, poor grazing
management is one of the reasons for land and pasture degrading during drought (White
et al., 2003).
Millions of deaths and billions of dollar loss have been reported around the world
due to drought. Likewise, 20 millions of people were affected by the history’s worst
drought of 1998-2002 in South Asia (Hoerling and Kumar, 2003). The drought develops
slowly, therefore they are difficult to detect and have many features in a single region
(Morid et al., 2006). Drought preparedness and mitigation depends upon its timely
information of onset, progress and its spatial coverage. The preparation is carried through
the drought monitoring in which different drought indices are used. It is a fact that
drought can occur in any place or any region, but if drought vulnerable areas are well
marked then it could be easy to give proper attention to those areas by developing several
adaptation strategies.
Pakistan has a complex topography and variable climate (Chaudhry and Rasul,
2004). The country lies in the southwest of South Asia, bounded by 23.5°N to 37°N
latitude, 60.5°E to 78°E longitude, covering approximately an area of 796,100 km2.
According to Economic Survey Report (2016-17) of Pakistan, the total cultivated area of
Pakistan is 22.10 Million hectare (Mha), 23.40Mha not available for cultivation, 4.26Mha
is the forest area and 8.00Mha is the culturable waste area (GoP, 2017). The major
sources of irrigation are canals, groundwater and precipitation.
According to German Watch Global Climate Risk Index Report (2015), Pakistan
ranks seventh among the most affected countries that are affected by extreme weather
events from 1996-2015. Pakistan receives 60% of annual rainfall during the summer
monsoon (June - September), while 15-20 % rainfall occurs due to the western
disturbances system in winter (i.e. December-March) (Chaudhry, 1992). The rest of the
rainfall is received during the transition periods (April-June and October-November). In
addition, Chaudhry (2009) described that there is 61mm increase in annual rainfall of
Pakistan during the period from 1901-2008. It has been observed that amount of rainfall
decreases as the distance from the seas increases except for northern areas (Adnan and
Khan, 2009).
3
1.2 Rationale for the study:
Drought is considered as one of the complex weather phenomenon, which occurs
due to the prolonged abnormal deficiencies in precipitation and moisture. Due to its
unpredictability in nature, it is very difficult to forecast and to identify the spatial extent
and location of drought. In the recent past, many studies have been conducted in different
parts of the world and different indices have been used to monitor the drought, but still, a
lot of research work is needed to get better insight and the precise information on this
issue, especially in Pakistan. There is no universal definition of drought as it varies from
one region to another region. Drought may occur in both arid and humid areas. Arid areas
are more vulnerable and experience severe drought than in humid areas in Pakistan. The
vulnerability to drought over a region depends upon the amount and seasonal dependency
of precipitation.
Unfortunately, Pakistan Government has not yet developed its drought
vulnerability/hazard maps. Secondly, there is no historical scientific record of the drought
episodes in order to understand the intensity and duration of drought over the country. A
new drought hazard equation is developed to prepare the drought vulnerability map of
Pakistan that ultimately will help disaster management agencies to focus on those
regions. Prior knowledge of vulnerable areas that may fall under the threat of drought in
future will be crucial for developing food security map of the country. This study also
identifies the best indices to monitor drought in the country. The shifting of agro-climatic
zones and their sensitivity towards evapotranspiration (ET) and drought has thoroughly
been discussed in the thesis. The present study covers all the aspects regarding drought
identification, assessment, shifting of agro-zones, scenarios of ET, and trends of
meteorological parameters at station and provincial level. This study provides a complete
insight of drought-prone areas in Pakistan which would be helpful for the public sector,
policy makers, planners, disaster relief agencies to develop a framework and contingency
plans to avoid the socio-economic issues like water scarcity and migration during the
drought.
4
1.3 Aims and objectives:
South Asia region is vulnerable to extreme climate events such as droughts and
floods (Rathore, 2005). The drought has adverse effects on water resources, public health,
agriculture and livestock which are widespread and vary from region to region (Udmale
et.al, 2014). The southwestern monsoon system does not reach the Central South West
Asia (CSWA) region and receive most of the annual rainfall in winter which is associated
with mid-latitude cyclone (western disturbances) (Martyn, 1992).
The water balance conditions are becoming worse day by day in southern
Pakistan and water stress has been observed in some of the northern parts of Pakistan
during 1931-2008 (Adnan et al., 2009). The documented historical records of drought
hazard areas are not available in Pakistan. Therefore, it is very difficult for the national
climate change policymakers to prepare a strategy or plan especially when documentary
evidence is not available about the vulnerability of an area. Taking into account these
problems, it is planned to address these issues using multiple statistical and modelling
techniques.
The major objectives of the research proposal are as follows:
 Investigation of precipitation and drought behaviour over Central South Asia
(CSA) including Pakistan.
 Identify the trends of temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration in
different provinces of Pakistan
 Evaluation of different drought indices to monitor drought over Pakistan.
 Development of new drought hazard index to develop the drought vulnerability
map of Pakistan.
 Determine the drought history: duration, frequency, returns periods and soil
moisture departure for the assessment of drought in Pakistan.
 To investigate the shifting of agro-climate zones, their drought susceptibility
along with temperature and precipitation trends in these zones.
 Find out the impact of the meteorological parameter on evapotranspiration in
different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan and develop the climate change
scenarios for these zones.
5
1.4 Structure of the thesis:
The thesis structure consists of seven chapters which cover drought investigation,
evaluation of drought indices, drought hazard mapping, drought characteristic and trend
analysis, and climate change trends of meteorological parameters in Pakistan:
Chapter 1: An introduction of the present work followed by the scientific background,

geography and climate of the study area, motivation and problem statement, statement of
research objectives, and structure of the thesis.
Chapter 2: Investigation of drought and precipitation climatology in South Central Asia

(SCA) with a special focus on Pakistan. The four global observed data sets of 0.5o×0.5°
and station data have been used to determine the historical drought climatology and
precipitation trend. Based on observational data, the trend significance of precipitation,
temperature, and evapotranspiration have been identified on station and provincial level
in Pakistan.
Chapter 3: The comparison of fifteen drought indices has been made to evaluate the best
indices to monitor drought in Pakistan. Different statistical tests have been applied and
their performance tested on historical drought period. A new drought hazard index
equation has been developed to prepare the drought hazard map of Pakistan by using the
observational and GPCC precipitation along with soil moisture data during 1951-2010.
The frequency, category and types of drought have been identified.
Chapter 4: The shifting of agro-climatic zones and trends of precipitation and drought
were identified. The significant analysis was conducted by using observational data 1951-
2010 on the monthly, seasonal and annual timescale. Furthermore, the impacts of
different meteorological parameters on evapotranspiration have been examined in
different agro-meteorological zones. The scenarios have been developed for each of the
zones to determine the percentage change in ET due to change in temperature, vapor
pressure, solar radiation and wind speed on seasonal and annual basis.
Chapter 5: The results and conclusions of Chapter 2 to Chapter 4 are summarized in this
chapter followed by the discussions on future research work.
6
Chapter 2
Precipitation and drought climatologies in South Central
Asia and their trends over Pakistan
7
2.1 Introduction:
In this chapter, the climatology of precipitation and drought are analyzed by using
different indices in the South Central Asia (SCA) region. The spatial precipitation pattern
is delineated by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) over the period of 1951-
2010, which identifies six sub-regions in the SCA. The monthly and annual trends of
precipitation were analyzed in these sub-regions by applying the five statistical tests,
namely; t-Student’s, Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s Rho for linear trend while turning point
and Sen’s Slope for randomness and slope magnitude respectively at α= 0.05 significance
level. The correlation between Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and area
weighted precipitation of 53 meteorological stations in Pakistan has been identified. The
historical drought year along with the SCA vulnerability region has been determined.
Furthermore, the precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration trend analysis have
also been conducted for Pakistan on the annual and seasonal basis at 95% significance
level. The first part of this work has been published in the Journal of Climate, American
Meteorological Society (2016) and 2nd part is under review in Journal of Hydrology
(Elsevier).
The most important climatological factor responsible for drought or flood is
precipitation. The precipitation variability can cause both types of natural hazards. As
demonstrated by Gocic and Trajkovic (2013a), the analysis of precipitation and drought
climatologies provides very useful information for improving the strategies of water
management, environmental protection, agricultural production and socioeconomic
development for a certain region.
Drought is both; a disaster and a hazard that occurs naturally due to the deficiency
of precipitation over a region. Moreover, the frequency, severity and duration of drought
vary across different climatic zones (Wilhite, 1993; Paulo et al., 2012). It is also
considered the worst climatic extremes affecting more people than any other form of
natural disasters (Wilhite, 2000). It can be classified into four classes; meteorological,
agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic drought (Dracup et al., 1980; Wilhite and
Glantz, 1985).
In the past, several studies have been done and different drought indices were
developed (e.g., Shahid, 2008; Mishra and Singh, 2010; Pietzsch and Bissolli, 2011;
8
Tabari et al., 2011). As suggested by Hisdal et al. (2001) that the precipitation variability
explains the trends of drought occurrence, frequency and duration. Although precipitation
trends have been compared and analyzed by the numerous scientists (e.g., Gemmer et al.,
2004; Liu et al., 2008; Tabari et al., 2012; Hanif et al., 2013) but very few studies have
measured the global precipitation because it appears to be the most challenging task.
Most of the research reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) indicated that the global mean surface temperature as the most common
indicator of climate change. It is noted that more evaporation takes place as the
temperature increases and this causes more precipitation as well (Karl et al., 1997). A
study conducted on 14 powerful models showed an increasing precipitation at high
latitudes while decreasing at subtropical latitudes by considering the anthropogenic
impact on global precipitation and a latitudinal redistribution of mean precipitation
(Zhang et al., 2007).
According to RupaKumar et al. (1992), the long-term rainfall data indicates an
increasing trend in monsoon seasonal rainfall in northwest India. Similarly, a decreasing
trend in the monsoon seasonal rainfall and an increasing trend in temperatures were
observed by using the long-term dataset of the whole India as demonstrated by Kothyari
and Singh (1996). Similarly, significant increasing and decreasing trends were observed
over the several stations in China during the last fifty years (Gemmer et al., 2004).
Treydte et al. (2006) determined an increasing precipitation trend caused by the global
climate change during the 20th century. Multi-model ensemble techniques showed an
increase of 20-24% in precipitation projected over Arabian Peninsula and some areas of
Pakistan, Nepal and northwest India (Kirpalani et al., 2007). According to Ramesh and
Goswami (2007), the linear and spatial precipitation trends in daily gridded observed data
(1951-2003) showed that Indian summer monsoon is shrinking both; temporally and
spatially. However, in Pakistan, the percentage of effective rainfall decreases as the
distance from the sea increases except for northern area (Adnan and Khan, 2009).
Recently, Kumar et al. (2010) detected a significant annual increase in rainfall over
northern India. In addition, Hanif et al. (2013) recently used 60 years data and observed a
significant increase in seasonal and annual rainfall in the upper parts of Pakistan, but no
9
significant change is noted in seasonal and annual rainfall in southern parts of that
country. Moreover, monsoon rainfall has shifted a bit westward.
The global climate is influenced by the green house gases caused by the
anthropogenic activity (Charlson and Schwartz, 1992). The climate change controls the
global hydrological cycle as well as the air temperature (Zhao, 2015). The energy budget
of the earth is changing the climate by increasing the emission of green house gases and
aerosol produced by human activity. This climate change increased the global land
surface temperature at the rate of 0.175°C to 0.197°C per decade during 1951-2012
(Stocker et al., 2013). The world temperature has increased between 1900-1940 and
1965-2000, while it decreased during 1940-1965 (Hansen et al., 2001). The annual mean
temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.058° in China, which is almost same as the
global rate (Wang et al., 2004). Another study estimated the annual mean temperature has
increased by 0.78°C during 1960-2005 (Tang et al., 2010).
The Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) model based scenario
(IS92a) has identified a 5.2% increase in the global mean precipitation and
evapotranspiration by 2050 (Wetherald and Manabe, 2002). The observation data shows
6% K-1increase in both these parameters due to increase in air temperature. The increase
in temperature significantly and directly related to the soil respiration increase, resulting
in more soil carbon emission and degradation (Bond-Lamberty and Thomson, 2010). The
climate change will enhance the extreme events (droughts and floods) that can trigger the
global water and food shortage crises (Parkar, 2008). Many renowned studies suggest that
climate change may widen the gap between the nations as the agriculture productivity
will increase in developed countries and decrease in developing countries (Rosenzweig
and Parry, 1994; Fischer et al., 2005). It is expected that millions of more people will
face hunger by 2050 and more unrest will occur in near future due to lack of food (Parry
et al., 2004). The long-term trend of extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves,
floods and forest fires) have increased worldwide in terms of numbers and intensity
which break the historical record of the past (Huber and Gulledge, 2011).
The temperature is a key parameter to trigger the extreme events around the globe
as well as in Pakistan (UNFCCC, 2007). According to Global Climate Risk Index,
Pakistan was ranked 10th in 2013 among climate change vulnerable countries (Kreft et
10
al., 2014). The study on extreme temperature suggest that temperature may fall to -26°C
in the northern area and reach to 52°C in central and southern parts of Pakistan (Srinivas
and Kumar, 2006). The air temperature has increased to 0.64°C with a rising trend of
0.06°C per decade in Pakistan (Afzaal et al., 2009). The latest study on statistical
downscaling of temperature reveals that air temperature will increase in the southern
parts of Pakistan (Kazmi et.al., 2015). The study on Indus river basin, India identified
annual and seasonal increasing trends of precipitation (Gajbhiye et al., 2016). The sub-
mountainous regions (potwar plateau) receive a high amount of rainfall as compared to
western mountains of Balochistan (Adnan et al., 2009). The percentage of effective
rainfall is high at low precipitation region of Pakistan (Adnan and Khan, 2009). Pakistan
lies in arid climate and more vulnerable to drought (Haider and Adnan, 2014). The
drought cycle repeats after 3 to 4 years for below average rainfall regions. The plain areas
and southwestern parts of Pakistan show no significant trend in rainfall during the last
two decades (Salma et al., 2012).
From these brief reviews, it is apparent that there is a changing trend in seasonal
extreme rainfall observed in different parts of Asia during the recent decades, but the
impacts of this variable in the region are not identified yet. In this study, detailed
precipitation analyses will be carried out and its trends will be studied during the period
of 1951-2010 in SCA region by using the observational and GPCC gridded data of
horizontal resolution (0.5°×0.5°). Furthermore, these investigations will help to indicate
areas which are highly vulnerable to floods and droughts in the selected region.
The objectives of these investigations are: (1) to segregate the precipitation by
using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in SCA region, which would help to
determine the weather influencing system, (2) to find the rainfall variability on monthly
basis along annual trends analysis by using five statistical tests such as t-Student’s, linear
regression, Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s Rho, while turning point and Sen’s Slope for
randomness and slope magnitude respectively at α = 0.05 significance level over SCA
region (3) to investigate the drought climatologies and vulnerable areas in the SCA
region with special focus on Pakistan for the period of 1951-2010 and finally, identify the
annual, seasonal and monthly trends of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration
11
for different provinces of Pakistan, which may be helpful for water management, crop
water requirement and agricultural planning for sustainable development.
2.2 Data and methods:

The study area lies in the domain of (20.25°N to 45.75°N and 59.25°E to
80.75°E) and comprises of Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan called South Central Asian (SCA) region (Fig.
2.1). The climate of this region is arid, semi-arid and temperate according to Koppen
classification (Koppen, 1919). The maximum amount of rainfall is observed in the
western and eastern parts (eastern Pakistan and India) in the SCA region due to western
disturbances (WDs) and monsoon rainfall respectively (Yadav et al., 2012). Sixty years
(1951-2010) of monthly precipitation data (0.5°×0.5°) from the Global Precipitation
Climatological Centre (GPCC), University of Delaware (UDel, USA), Climatic Research
Unit (CRU, University of East Anglia (UEA), UK), precipitation over Land by NOAA
(PRECIP_L) and mean ensemble is used to determine the correlation between them.
The main purpose of these comparisons is to determine the similarity and
suitability of different precipitation data-sets with GPCC. In the absence of GPCC data,
this comparison will be useful for conducting such studies. In addition, monthly
precipitation data-set for the same period from 58 meteorological stations of Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD) is also used to analyze the precipitation and drought
events. PCA method is used to segregate GPCC gridded precipitation of SCA into sub-
regional scale using Varimax rotation as suggested by Malik et al. (2013). According to
Kaiser (1958, 1959), Varimax rotation on each factor of the variables reduces large
number small loading and vice-versa. Moreover, it simplifies the interpretation. Usually,
PCA is used to reduce the number of variables in the data (Manly, 1994). The factor
analysis forms different groups of data by applying on time series of precipitation data at
each grid point and each group has the same characteristics (Thurstone, 1931). The data
reduction and structure detection are the prime purposes of using PCA in this study,
carried out by the statistical package for the social sciences (Nie et al., 1968).
12
Fig. 2.1 Topographical map of SCA region elevation (meters).
Time series of a percent of normal rainfall is calculated over the whole SCA
region including Pakistan’s. This helps to investigate the precipitation amount during
drought years. Groups having same precipitation characteristics are plotted together. The
meteorological data (1951-2015) of temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration are
used for annual and seasonal trend analysis for each province of Pakistan. The Penman-
Monteith (PM) equation was used to calculate evapotranspiration (Allen et al., 1998).
The details of this equation are explained in chapter-3.
2.2.1 Rainfall variability index (RVI):
According to Gocic and Trajkovic (2013b), rainfall variability index ( is

calculated as
( ) (2.1)
Where δi is rainfall variability index for ith year, Pi is annual rainfall for ith year; µ
and σ are the mean annual rainfall and standard deviation for the period of 1951-2010.
Time series of rainfall are classified into different climatic regimes. In case is negative,
13
and then the year is said to be drought year. According to World Meteorological
Organization (WMO, 1975), rainfall time series can be classified into different climate
regimes.
P < µ - 2. exterme dry 
µ - 2.  P  µ -   (2.2)
dry 
 (2)
µ -  P < µ +  normal 
P>µ+ wet 
2.2.2 Deciles index:

Deciles are one particular example of the cumulated frequency distribution. Gibbs
and Maher (1967) have used deciles method to study Australian droughts. In this method,
cumulated frequency curve or data array is used to calculate the limits of each decile of
the distribution. The first deciles represent the amount of precipitation lower than 10
percent of the total, the second deciles is the amount not exceeded by 20 percent of the
total and so on. The fifth deciles or median is the rainfall amount not more than 50
percent of the total. The deciles value depicts the rainfall distribution, deciles range and
useful information on departure from normal. The deciles ranges are useful in classifying
rainfall occurrence (Table 2.1).
Table 2.1 Classification of drought based on deciles index.
2.2.3 Standardized precipitation index (SPI):
Mckee et al. (1993, 1995) developed SPI to quantify precipitation deficit on

different time scales i.e., 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 24, and 48 months. The probability on the
different scale allows SPI to monitor the impact of drought on agriculture and soil
moisture over a short time period whereas, reservoirs, water supplies and streamflow over
the long term. Several studies (e.g., Gocic and Trajkovic, 2014; Heim, 2002; Keyantash
14
Table 2.2 Drought classification by SPI values and corresponding events probability.
and Dracup, 2002) ranked SPI at the top of all drought indicators due to its flexibility and
feature. It is also one of the most used drought indicator worldwide (WMO, 2012). Long
year sequence data of precipitation at least 30 years are required to calculate SPI at any
location; however, longer data is preferable (Hayes et al., 1999; Seiler et al., 2002). The
drought classification by SPI and probability is shown in Table 2.2
2.2.4 Statistical tests:
Five statistical tests are used for annual precipitation, namely; Student’s t-test,
Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975; Helsel and Hirsch, 1992; Maidment,
1993) and Spearman’s Rho test (Lehmann, 2006; Sneyers, 1990) for linear trend, turning
point test (Kottegodda, 1980) for randomness and Sen’s Slope test (Sen, 1968) for slope
magnitude at α=0.05 significance level. The t-Student test statistically verifies by testing
the difference from zero of the slope coefficient, whether the correlation coefficient is
significantly different than zero. The population correlation coefficient ρ = 0 under the
null hypothesis particularly, the equation is computed as:
√
(2.3)
√
Where r is the sample correlation coefficient and N is the sample size. The null
hypothesis is rejected on the basis of two-tailed tests at significance level α if | |
( where | | ( is the value drawn from a Student’s t distribution
with N-2 degrees of freedom and non exceedance probability (1-α/2). The values of α are
normally 10, 5, 2.5 and 1 percent.
The linear trend of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation and temperature are
calculated using Mann Kendall test, which has been broadly used to analyze the long-
15
term climatological and hydrological time series. The variance of the equation is
calculated by using the following equation.
( { ( ( ∑ ( ( } (2.4)
Where q is the number of tied groups (having the same value of sample data set)
and tp is the number of data values in the pth group.
The test statics S is given by:
∑ ∑ ( (2.5)
Where xk and xj are the sequential data values, n is the length of data set and sgn
(θ) is the sign function that is equal to 1, 0, -1, if θ is greater than equal to or less than
zero, respectively. S 1

 if S  0
 Var ( S )
 0 if S  0 (2.6)
 S 1
 if S  0
Var ( S )

The value of Z is approximately normally distributed and positive value of Z

greater than 1.96 represents the significant increasing trend, whereas negative value
lower than -1.96 donates a significant decreasing trend at 95% significance level with
two-tailed tests. The values of Z greater than 1.645 and less than -1.645 shows significant
level (α = 0.05) with a one-tailed test.
The non-parametric method proposed by Sen (1968) is used to determine the true
slope (change per unit time) when time series shows a linear trend. This means that f (t)
in the equation given below is equal to
( (2.7)
Where Q is the slope and B is a constant.
This method estimates the magnitude of a trend as follows:
( ) (2.8)
Where and are the data values at times and ( , respectively.

Spearman Rho test (rs) identifies the strength between the two variables which
ranges from -1 to +1. Positive values of rs = +1, shows perfect positive correlation and
16
vice versa, whereas rs=0 indicate no association between the rank. The values of rs can be
determined by the following equation.
(∑ )
(2.9)
Where rs represents Spearman correlation coefficient, D is the difference between

the ranks and N is the number of ranks. The values of p < 0.05 is said to be statistically
significant.
The turning point test is based on counting in a series Xt (t=1, 2…. N) the number
of turning points m, i.e. for each t=2, 3 …, N-1, the values for which Xt is larger than Xt -
1 and Xt +1 or Xt is smaller than Xt -1 and Xt +1 (Kottegoda, 1980).
Under the null hypothesis, the series is assumed random and it can be shown that
the statistic
( ( ) (2.10)
√ (
( ( (2.11)
( ( (2.12)
converges to a standard normal variable. Then, the null hypothesis is rejected with a
significance level α if | | , where is a standard normal variable
corresponding to a non exceedence probability (1-α/2). The bold character represents the
significance trend which is identified by these four statistical methods i.e. Student’s t-test,
Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope and Spearman’s Rho (Table 2.6).
2.3 Results and discussions:

Four different precipitation data-sets (GPCC, CRU, Precip_L, UDel) with
horizontal resolution (0.5°×0.5°) and their ensemble mean were taken to determine the
correlation between them on an annual basis (1951-2010) over the domain (20.25°N to
40.25°N and 60.25°E to 80.25°E). The main idea was to determine the precipitation
relationship between GPCC and different data-sets as rest of the data-sets may be used in
17
Fig. 2.2 Correlation of GPCC precipitation data with CRU, Precip-L, UDel and Ensemble
mean.
the absence of GPCC. The GPCC has a very strong correlation with area weighted station
rainfall data of Pakistan. Based on linear and nonlinear regression method, it is noted that
GPCC data has a very strong correlation with UDel (R2 =0.97), Ensemble (R2 =0.89),
Precip-L (R2 =0.76) and CRU (R2 =0.71) respectively (Fig. 2.2). The polynomial curve
line is useful for analyzing the large data which has more fluctuation and provides the
highest values of R2 shows a good fit to the line of data (Carter and Robertson, 1998).
The linear trend does not provide the highest values of R2 as the data was more spread
and highly fluctuating. So, we used non-linear third order polynomial regression method
for Precip_L and CRU data to obtain best-fit curve and result are significantly improved.
These all are gauged data sets, but the variation in the correlation is due to
regional variation in topography that significantly affects the amount of precipitation. The
nature of precipitation and its uncertainty in distribution, amount, intensity and limitation
of observational stations makes it most challenging parameter. According to Schneider et
al. (2014), the variation or shortcoming regarding precipitation data is due to
inhomogeneous coverage over space and time along with the quality control of the station
meteorology data. Moreover, the frequent and different kinds of error make the variations
18
Fig. 2.3 Spatio-temporal analysis of GPCC and station rainfall data of Pakistan.
in the data sets as compared to GPCC, which has good spatial coverage with a maximum
number of station data (more than 51000) and quality control. Therefore, it is preferred
for research in the absence of station data.
The spatio-temporal analysis of GPCC gridded data (0.5°×0.5°) and Area
Weighted Rainfall (AWR) of the station in Pakistan are plotted in Fig. 2.3. Thiessen
Polygon method (1911) was employed to calculate the area factor on PMD station data.
As suggested by Rhynsburger (1973), it is commonly used in the fields of meteorology
and hydrology. According to Fiedler (2003), the station weight is a scalar unit and it
transforms the point precipitation of gauging station into mean associated precipitation of
a region. The analysis shows that the observed precipitation was slightly higher than the
GPCC precipitation in certain years during 1951-2010 but the trend and variability were
the same. However, the variation in both data-sets was more during 1951-60 since the
PMD data of only 41 stations was available at that time. Later on, the number of stations
reached up to 53 due to which, the time series analysis is very close to each other. This
indicates that the strengthening of the station network enhances the relationship between
19
Fig. 2.4 Distribution of GPCC precipitation using PCA over the SCA region.
the two data-sets. Moreover, the spatial analysis reveals that there is a high correlation
(R2 =0.93) between the two data-sets (Fig. 2.3). Also, the GPCC data is very close to real
time station data, hence, may be used in the absence of station data in Pakistan. The
technique of PCA is applied to time series of all grid points of SCA region precipitation
data of GPCC (0.5°×0.5°). Six groups were identified and each group has same
precipitation characteristics (Fig. 2.4). The first group (A-1) is highly correlated than A-2
with respect to precipitation at a grid point and so on. The factors are successively
extracted and variance became less and less after six groups.
The group A-1 covers most parts of Pakistan and western India and includes
agricultural plains, forest, desert and some hilly region (Fig. 2.4). The agro-climatic
classification shows that 75 to 88% of the land of this region lies between arid to semi-
arid (Haider and Adnan, 2014). A-2 includes the southwestern parts of Pakistan, Iran and
southern Afghanistan, which is largely covered with deserts, rocks and rough surface. A-
3 includes the central Asian region mainly consisting of mountains, rocks, steppe and arid
lands. A-4 region includes the northeastern parts of India, consisting of plains and high
20
Himalayan foothill ranges. A-5 region covers most part of the west of China and east of
central Asia, which consist of high mountains (Karakoram), glaciers and barren rocks. A-
6 includes extremes of northwest Pakistan and northern Afghanistan where snow covered
mountains (Hindu Kush), barren hills and high elevated valleys are found.
2.3.1 Analysis of precipitation:
The monthly precipitation climatology of each group was plotted over the whole
domain (Fig. 2.5). The main objective was to separate the precipitation influencing
system in these regions, i.e. southeast monsoon (JJAS) and western disturbances (DJFM).
The same color pattern represents the monthly climatological precipitation behaviour in
each region. Region A-1 and A-4 are termed as the monsoon-dominated regions, where
the average daily precipitation varies from 2.07 to 5.51mmday-1and 2.55 to 7.79mmday-1
respectively, with July as the peak month of precipitation. A-2, A-3 and A-5 were known
to be the western disturbances (WDs) dominant regions where the daily average
precipitation varies from 0.58 to 0.98mmday-1, 0.98 to 1.79mmday-1 and 0.25 to
0.61mmday-1 respectively, with February and March, as the peak months. A-6 region and
Pakistan receives precipitation both; in summer and winter, where the daily averaged
amount of precipitation varies from 0.53 to 0.98, 1.25 to 3.19mm day-1during the
monsoon and from 0.99 to 2.54, 0.68 to 1.67mm day-1 during WDs respectively.
The time series of percent of normal of those regions which have same weather
pattern and rainfall characteristics were analyzed together (Fig. 2.6). The percent of
normal rainfall was less than 60% in A-2, A-5 and Pakistan, which caused drought during
1971, 2000, 2001 and 2002 in these regions.
Time series analysis of annual rainfall variability index (ARVI) and percentage
distribution of extremely dry, dry, normal and wet years was calculated for the SCA
region (Fig. 2.7 and Fig. 2.8) respectively. According to ARVI, the longest driest long
period was from 2000 to 2002 in the whole SCA region, while the extremely dry years
were 1971, 2001 and 2002 in A-3 and A-6. The percentage distribution of dry years in A-
4 region was much higher than the rest, as the rainfall variability of summer monsoon
rainfall has a lot of impacts in this region.
21
Fig. 2.5 Monthly average precipitation and pattern of GPCC in different regions.
Fig. 2.6 Time series of percent of rainfall in the SCA region.
22
Fig. 2.7 Rainfall variability index for the SCA region.
Fig. 2.8 Percentage distributions of extremely dry, dry, normal and wet years in the SCA
region.
2.3.2 Analysis of drought:
The first deciles represent the amount of precipitation lower than 10% of the total
precipitation, and it depicts clearly below normal rainfall, which leads to intense drought.
23
Fig. 2.9 Time series of rainfall deciles in different zones.
The analysis shows that the deciles were lowest during 2000 over the whole SCA region,
whereas intense drought condition was reported in most part of the SCA region during
1970 and 2010 (Fig. 2.9). The intense drought was reported due to below normal rainfall
(deciles-1) during the two decades i.e. 1971-80 and 2001-10. It is also noted that intense
drought years were reported in all regions during 2001-10. The maximum number of
intense droughts was detected in the A-2 region during the same decade, while region A-
1 was most vulnerable, where almost one intense drought was reported in each decade
except during 1991-2000 (Fig. 2.10).
The SPI on 3, 6, and 9 months are used to determine droughts on a shorter time
scale affecting the agricultural practices of a region (Paulo and Pereira, 2008). Based on
12-months timescale, SPI is more suitable to determine the dry periods and helpful for
water resources management (Raziei et al., 2009). The time series of SPI-12 are plotted
over six groups during 1951-2010 as shown in Fig. 2.11.
24
Fig. 2.10 Total regional deciles-1 on decadal basis.
Fig. 2.11 Time series of 12-SPI at different zones.
The maximum number of total droughts was observed in region A-5 with 4 severe
droughts during the 60 years (1951-2010). The most severe droughts were reported
during 2000 to 2002 in the SCA region except for Pakistan, where it was moderate. The
drought of 1952 was the most severe in Pakistan. The drought characteristics at 12-month
time scale in the whole SCA region during 1951-2010 are presented in Table 2.3.
25
Table 2.3 Drought characteristics at 12-months SPI in SCA regions.
Fig. 2.12 Drought distribution (%) in SCA regions during 1951-2010.
The maximum percentage of mild drought was reported in region A-4 and A-5
while the moderate drought was observed in regions A-1, A-5, A-6 and Pakistan. The
maximum severe droughts were reported in region A-5, while the extreme was reported
in A-2, A-3 and Pakistan, but these droughts were less frequent than the other classes as
discussed by Moreira et al. (2008). The regions A-2, A-3 and Pakistan experience all
types of droughts; from mild to extreme while the maximum total number of droughts
was observed in region A-5 (Fig. 2.12).
The time series analysis of RVI, SPI at the 12-months timescale and percent of
annual normal rainfall were calculated (Fig. 2.13). The intense droughts were reported
when the percent of normal rainfall was below 80% observed in the whole SCA region. A
strong correlation among the three indices has been observed as RVI to 12-SPI (R2=0.85)
and percent of annual normal to 12-SPI (R2=0.88). So, we may conclude that all three
indices are directly proportional to each other. Moreover, this is a very good indicator to
monitor drought in a region.
26
Fig. 2.13 Time series comparison of RVI, 12-SPI and PCN rainfall in SCA regions.
Table 2.4 Statistical parameters of monthly precipitation of SCA regions (1951-2010).
The summary of statistical parameters of monthly precipitation during 1951-2010

of SCA region is shown in Table 2.4. The mean monthly precipitation ranges from 12.32
mm to 72.58 mm with highest maximum value 340.28 mm in the region A-4 and the
lowest minimum value 0.0 mm in Pakistan. The highest values of coefficient of variation
(CV) of the precipitation value were observed in the A-2 region at the rate of 83.31%,
while the lowest CV of 44.32% at A-1.
The results of trend analysis are summarized on basis of monthly precipitation
over the period 1951-2010 using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope method at different
significance levels (Table 2.5). The bold values represent the trend at different
significance levels with two-tailed tests. It is noted that month of June shows increasing
trend of 0.36, 0.09, 0.18 and 0.37mm/month in A-1, A-5, A-6 and Pakistan regions,
respectively. Similarly, the significant increasing trend was observed during September in
A-3 (0.03mm/month), February (0.11 and 0.31) mm/month in A-5 and Pakistan, April
(0.12mm/month) in A-5 region respectively. However, a significant decreasing trend was
detected in January and August (-0.25 and -1.13) mm/month in region A-4 and April and
July (-0.49 and -0.13 mm/month) in A-6 region.
27
Table 2.5 Trend magnitude of monthly precipitation (mm) using Sen’s slope method at
different significance level.
Table 2.6 Results of the statistical tests for the annual precipitation during 1951-2010.
The annual trend of precipitation obtained by five statistical methods is given in

Table 2.6. The t- student test shows that significant linear trend is present (increasing in
A-5 and Pakistan region and decreasing in A-4 region). The turning point test results
depict that the null hypothesis is accepted as data series is random in whole SCA region.
These results of Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope show a significant (α = 0.05) increasing
trend in annual precipitation time series in region A-5 and Pakistan with a slope of
0.75mm/yr and 1.71mm/yr, respectively. Besides, only region A-4 has a significant
decreasing trend with a slope of -2.15mm/yr.
The decadal anomaly shows decreasing trend in SCA region. All the regions
except A-5 and Pakistan show increasing trend (Fig. 2.14). The precipitation in region A-
1 suggests that monsoon rainfall has increased in the last decade (2001-2010). The
precipitation in region A-5 has increased may be due to the high intensity of WDs in the
extreme north of that region. In addition, the whole region experienced negative anomaly
in annual precipitation during 1984, 2000 and 2001 (the lowest). The maximum positive
anomaly was observed in the whole SCA region except for regions A-1during 1957. The
highest decadal positive anomaly was recorded 0.09mm/day in region A-1 during 2001-
28
Fig. 2.14 Decadal anomalies of precipitation (mmday-1) in the SCA region.
2010, 0.04 mm/day in A-2 (1951-60 and 1991-2000) 0.04 mm/day and 0.21mm/day in A-
3 and A-4 during 1951-60 and 0.08, 0.09 and 0.13 mm/day in regions A-5, A-6 and
Pakistan during 1991-2000, respectively. The highest decrease in precipitation was
observed in A-4 region (-0.20mm/day) during 2001-10. The trend in decadal precipitation
was negative in 67% part of SCA region during the three consecutive decades (1961-70,
1971-80, 1981-90) and 2001-10. Moreover, the positive trend in decadal precipitation
was observed during 1951-60 and 1991-2000.
2.3.3 Trend analysis:

2.3.3.1 Annual analysis:
The long-term data (1951-2015) of precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum

and minimum temperature was used to calculate the trend and its magnitude in Pakistan.
The annual analysis shows an increasing trend for precipitation, evapotranspiration and
maximum temperature whereas decreasing trend for minimum temperature (Fig. 2.15).
The results show significant increase and decrease for maximum and minimum
temperature at the rate of 0.01°Cyr-1. The time series also showed that amount of rainfall
was near and below 400mm during 1951, 1952, 1974, 2001 and 2002. The
evapotranspiration was maximum (1665.0mm) during 1953. Similarly, the maximum
temperature was highest in 2001 and minimum temperature was lowest in 1986 and 1989.
The spatial analysis of annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, mean monthly
maximum and minimum temperature was performed to determine the significant trend
(95%) and its magnitude in Pakistan (Fig. 2.16). The significant increasing trend is
29
Fig. 2.15 Annual trends of precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum and minimum
temperature of Pakistan.
observed at Bhawalnagar, DI Khan, Faisalabad, Gilgit, Jacobabad, Mianwali, Multan,

Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Risalpur, Sargodha, Sialkot and Sibbi while, the decreasing trend
is experienced at Astore, Drosh, Ghari Dupatta and Jiwani (Fig. 2.16a). The maximum
precipitation is increasing at the rate of 6.45mm/year at Rawalpindi, and decreasing at the
rate of -8.25mm/year at Ghari Dupatta (Fig. 2.16a). The results depict that rainfall has
increased significantly in some of the central and upper parts of Pakistan.
Significant increase in annual ET has been observed in northern, southwestern
and some of the southeastern parts of the country, including Astore, Balakot,
Bhawalnagar, Chitral, Chhor, Dalbandin, Dir, Drosh, Ghari Dupatta, Gilgit, Gupis,
Jiwani, Karachi, Khuzdar, Kohat, Murree, Muzaffarabad, Nokkundi, Panjgur, Pasni,
Quetta, Rawalpindi, Shaheed Benazirabad, Skardu and Zhob and decreased over Badin,
Bahawalpur, Bunji, Cherat, Hyderabad, Jacobabad, Khanpur, Lahore, Lasbella,
Parachinar and Sialkot (Fig. 2.16b). The variability in ET has been observed throughout
the country, while the maximum ET has increased at Dalbandin (1.75mm/year), and
decreased at Cherat (-1.23mm/year). The results also depict that ET has significantly
increased in most of the area in Balochistan, and decreased in some of the regions in
30
Fig. 2.16 Spatial trends of annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum and
minimum temperature of Pakistan.
Punjab and KP. The mean maximum annual temperature has increased significantly over
the Saidu-Sharif along with the same stations where ET has increased (Fig. 2.16b).
Moreover, a significant decreased has been observed over Badin, Bahawalpur,
Cherat, Hyderabad, Jacobabad, Lahore, Lasbella, Multan, Parachinar and Sialkot (Fig.
2.16c). The highest increase in the rate of maximum temperature is experienced at
Dalbandin (0.04°C/year), and highest decreased at Cherat (0.03°C/year). The positive
increase in trend magnitude is observed in southwestern parts of Balochistan, Gilgit
Baltistan and AJK whereas a negative decrease in southern parts of KP, Sindh and Punjab
including north-eastern region (Fig. 2.16c). The mean minimum annual temperature has
increased significantly over Astore, Badin, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Chillas, Chhor,
Dalbandin, Hyderabad, Islamabad, Jacobabad, Jhelum, Karachi, Khanpur, Khuzdar,
Lahore, Larkana, Mianwali, Mohenjo-Daro, Multan, Nokkundi, Padidan, Panjgur,
Quetta, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Rohri, Sargodha and Shorkot. Moreover, a significant
31
Fig. 2.17 Time series analysis of annual rainfall (mm) of different regions of Pakistan.
decrease has been observed over Barkhan, Bunji, Cherat, Chitral, DI Khan, Dir, Ghari
Dupatta, Gilgit, Gupis, Kakul, Kohat, Kotli, Ormara, Parachinar, Skardu and Turbat (Fig.
2.16d).
The highest decrease in the rate of minimum temperature is experienced at Turbat
(-0.13°Cyr-1), and highest increased at Mohenjo-Daro (0.07°C yr-1). The positive increase
in trend magnitude is observed in almost the whole province of Punjab, Sindh and
Balochistan, and a decrease in Gilgit-Baltistan and some parts of AJK and KP (Fig.
2.16d). This increase in maximum and minimum temperature may enhance the ET and
may put pressure to the water resources activity along with the moisture stress and crop
water requirement in these regions, as identified by Rasul et al., 2011.
32
Fig. 2.18 Time series analysis of annual evapotranspiration (mm) of different regions of
Pakistan.
The long-term data (1951-2015) of precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum

and minimum temperature was used to calculate the trend and its magnitude in different
provinces of Pakistan. The analysis shows an increase in annual rainfall in Punjab,
Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), and a decrease in
Sindh and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). The results show a significant increased in
Punjab and KP at the rate of 2.45mmyr-1 and 1.55mmyr-1 respectively. The year 1999-
2002 is known to be the longest dry period over different provinces of Pakistan; where
well below normal rainfall was observed. The maximum rainfall deficit years are
observed i.e. 1972 in Punjab, 1974 in Sindh, 2002 in Balochistan, 1952 in KP, 1971 in
GB and 2001 and 2009 in AJK (Fig. 2.17).
The annual evapotranspiration was analyzed and a positive increasing trend has
been observed over Sindh, Balochistan, GB and AJK while decreasing trend in Punjab
33
Fig. 2.19 Time series of annual maximum temperature (°C) of different regions of
Pakistan.
and KP (Fig. 2.18). These trends are statistically significant over Punjab, Balochistan and
KP at the rate of -0.43mm yr-1, 0.90mm yr-1 and -0.36mm yr-1 respectively. Maximum
annual ET were observed over Punjab (1813.9 mm) in 1972, 1974 in Sindh (1958.4mm),
2004 in Balochistan (1795.5mm), 1958 in KP (1564.1mm), 1953 in GB (1394.3mm) and
1952 in AJK (1660.5mm).
The mean annual trend of maximum and minimum temperature was determined
over the different province of Pakistan. The maximum temperature result shows a
positive increasing trend over Sindh, Balochistan, GB and AJK but decreasing trend in
Punjab and KP (Fig. 2.19). These trends are statistically significant at 95% over
Balochistan (0.02°C yr-1), GB and AJK at the rate of 0.01°C yr-1 respectively. The
highest mean maximum annual temperature were observed over Punjab (30.7°C) in 1953,
2002 and 2004 in Sindh (35.3°C), 2004 in Balochistan (31.5°C), 1958 in KP (27.4°C),
2001 in GB (22.9°C) and 2001 in AJK (28.9°C).
34
Fig. 2.20 Time series of annual minimum temperature (°C) of different regions of
Pakistan.
The minimum temperature result shows a positive increasing trend in Punjab,
Sindh, Balochistan and decreasing trend in KP, GB and AJK (Fig. 2.20). These trends are
statistically significant at 95% over the entire region i.e. Punjab (0.01°C/year), Sindh
(0.01°C/year), Balochistan (0.02°C/year), KP (-0.03°C/year), Gilgit-Baltistan and AJK (-
0.014°C/year). The lowest mean minimum annual temperature were recorded in Punjab
(15.4°C) in 1983, 1989 in Sindh (18.1°C) and GB (6.9°C), 1951 in Balochistan (14.0°C),
1995, 1997, 2012 and 2014 in KP (11.5°C), and 1987 in AJK (12.5°C).
2.2.3.2 Seasonal analysis:

Based on the season, the provincial and country level significant analysis has been
conducted for rainfall, ET, maximum and minimum temperature (Table 2.7). The rainfall
has significantly increased in Sindh (0.084 mm/yr) during spring, Punjab (0.50 mm/yr),
Balochistan (0.13 mm/yr) and AJK (0.99 mm/yr) in summer, 0.46 mm/yr in GB during
monsoon. The highest increase in rainfall is observed during summer 0.99 mm/yr and
decrease in monsoon (-2.77 mm/yr) at AJK. The summer and winter rainfall have
significantly increased 0.38 mm/yr and 0.01 mm/yr in Pakistan respectively.
35
Table 2.7 Seasonal analysis of meteorological parameters in different provinces of
Pakistan.
The maximum increase in maximum and minimum temperature was observed in

Balochistan in winter (0.20°C/yr) and summer (0.20°C/yr). The highest increase in ET is
observed in Balochistan in summer (0.21mm/yr). The detailed results are shown in Table
2.7. Seasonal analysis of temperature (maximum and minimum), evapotranspiration and
rainfall has been conducted at 60 stations in Pakistan at 95% significance level (Fig. 2.21
to Fig. 2.25). The filled bar indicates that data is statistically significant at 95%
confidence level.
36
Fig. 2.21 Significant trend analysis for rainfall, maximum, minimum temperature and ET
during winter.
37
during spring.
38
during summer.
39
during monsoon.
40
during autumn.
41
The climatological patterns illustrate that the two precipitation weather systems
(monsoon and western disturbances) affect the regions (A-1 and A-4) and (A-2, A-3 and
A-5) respectively. However, region A-6 and Pakistan receive rainfall in both weather
systems. According to these investigations, two main drought periods were identified
(1971 and 2000-2002), whereas the extremely dry year was 2001 in SCA region. In
Pakistan, the most severe drought was recorded in 1952, while the episode of long
drought was experienced in 2000-2002. The region A-5 is the most vulnerable towards
drought. The monthly precipitation analysis suggests that the increasing trend was
observed in September and June in A-3 and A-5 regions respectively. However, a
significant decreasing trend is noted in January and August in A-4 region. In addition, an
annual analysis suggests a significant increasing trend in the region A-5 and Pakistan, and
a decreasing trend in region A-4.
Based on the monthly, seasonal and annual scale, the climate change trends of
temperature (maximum and minimum), evapotranspiration and rainfall have been
identified. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, evapotranspiration
are significantly increasing in most of the months at stations and provincial level, while a
significant increase in rainfall has been observed during June. The increase in
temperature in northern areas may trigger the snow and glacier melting which would
ultimately increase the river runoff. Moreover, the reduction in rainfall and increase in
temperature and evapotranspiration may put pressure on soil moisture conditions and
agricultural activity in southern Pakistan. The maximum seasonal increase in temperature
and ET was observed in Balochistan province. The significant seasonal increase in
rainfall was observed in summer (0.38mm), the maximum temperature in winter and
autumn by 0.01°C and a similar decrease in minimum temperature during summer and
monsoon (-0.01°C) in Pakistan.
42
Chapter 3
Evaluation of different drought indices and development of
drought hazard map for Pakistan
43
3.1 Introduction:
Different drought indices are normally used to monitor drought and its risk
management are evaluated. The precipitation, temperature and other hydro-
meteorological parameters are the essential parameters for the identification of drought.
Many indices have been developed and are being used around the world for this purpose.
The present study identifies the applicability and performance of 15 drought indices in
Pakistan. The performance, efficiency and significance are tested by applying different
statistical test. The SPI, SPEI, RDI and deciles show a better performance to monitor
drought in Pakistan and adjoining areas. A positive increasing trend (towards wetness) is
observed by almost all of the indices at 95% significance level. In addition, the historical
drought years and intensity have been explored along with a comparison of a recent long
episode of drought (1999-2002) and all the indices successfully captured this period. The
drought frequency, intensity, category and type have been identified in each district of
Pakistan. A drought hazard index has been developed to prepare the drought hazard map
of Pakistan at the district level. This study identifies 19 districts in Pakistan that are
extremely vulnerable to drought. Hence, this climatological study of drought provides
useful information for disaster management agencies and forecasters for assessing both
the regional vulnerability of drought and its seasonal predictability in Pakistan. The work
on the evaluation of the different drought indices has been published in Climate
Dynamics, (Springer), January 2018, whereas the work on drought frequency and
distribution has been published in the Journal of Meteorological Research (Springer) in
July 2015 and development of drought hazard index is under review in Quarterly Journal
of Royal Meteorological Society (Wiley).
Drought is known to be the worst hydro-meteorological hazard of nature (Mishra
and Desai, 2005). It is a temporary event which lasts for months to years. According to
Wilhite (2000), it is a creeping phenomenon that can occur in any part or any kind of
environment (arid, semi-arid or humid) of the world. The inter-annual variability in
precipitation puts the arid region always at drought risk due to a greater probability of
below average precipitation (Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008). According to the Centre for
Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), the drought causes large-scale
economic losses in a region and makes it more vulnerable to rest of the hydro-
44
meteorological disasters (Guha-Sapir et al., 2014). Obasi (1994) reported extreme
meteorological events contribute approximately 85% of the natural disasters. It generally
occurs due to the below normal precipitation over a region and strengthens with the
passage of time (Rossi, 2000). The timely information about the inception of drought and
its propagation over an area is very useful for drought preparedness and mitigation.
Therefore, information gained by using different drought indices can be helpful for
drought monitoring. The drought frequency and intensity provide valuable information
for policymakers for making timely contingency plans (Morid et al., 2006).
Many drought indices are being used around the region as a single drought index
that does not provide the drought information because climatic conditions vary from
region to region. The drought indices are used to determine the drought severity and its
spatio-temporal extent (Gutman, 1998; Hayes, 2000). According to Mendicino et al.
(2008), drought indices provide a comprehensive picture of drought, which is very useful
to monitor drought. The choice of drought index is more important for effective
monitoring of drought in a region. Some of the drought indices used by national hydro-
meteorological organizations are: SPEI (Vicente et al., 2010) and PDSI (Palmer, 1968) in
the United States, CZI by the meteorological Centre of China (Wu et al., 2001), DI by
National Meteorological Centre of Australia (Gibbs and Maher, 1967), RDI in many
meteorological services of European countries (Tsakiris and Vangelis, 2005; Tsakiris et
al., 2007), and SPI (McKee et al., 1993) which is a most commonly used indicator
around the world to monitor and follow drought conditions as recommended by the world
meteorological organization (WMO, 2012; Hayes et al., 2011).
3.1.1 Study area:
Pakistan lies in the domain of (23°39 N to 37°01 N and 60°49 E to 77°40 E) with
a total area of 796,096 km2 (Fig. 3.1). Due to diversified topography, Pakistan
experiences tropical to subtropical types of climate. Two major rainy sources, i.e. South
Asian monsoon and western disturbance bring rainfall in Pakistan during the summer and
winter seasons. These rainfall systems contribute almost 45% and 31% of the annual
rainfall during the monsoon (JAS) and winter (DJFM) seasons whereas 19.4% and 5.2%
during pre and post monsoon season respectively. The average temperature ranges from
45
Fig. 3.1 Geographical location of Pakistan along with the in-situ meteorological network
of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
12°C to 20°C and 19°C to 35°C during winter and summer respectively. According to
Adnan and Khan (2009), the area weighted mean annual precipitation varies between
30mm to 400mm from low (south) to high (north) latitude with a maximum 900mm to
1800mm in the sub-mountainous region. The monsoon rainfall overcomes the moisture
stress during Kharif season (May to September) and fulfills the water demands of crops
during Rabi (October to April) too. The amount of precipitation is less at low elevation,
but much more effective as compared to high elevations. The arid region covers 75% of
the land mass of Pakistan with the maximum in the southern half of the country that
makes it more vulnerable to drought. Furthermore, these regions have high temperature
and receive a low amount of rainfall as compared to northern parts (Haider and Adnan,
2014).
Pakistan possesses variable climate from north to south that makes the region
most vulnerable to predict climate extremes of drought or floods. The flood affects a
limited area, and has a time limit, but the drought can be experienced in any type of
climate over a longer period of time. This study is very much important for Pakistan, but
also for those regions where rainfall is dominant during monsoon. The drought
monitoring and its assessment has always been a big problem for National Hydro-
Meteorological Centers (NHMCs), since no universal definition of it is available. Many
indices have been developed depending on the climatology, and are being used around
46
the world. However, drought prediction and monitoring is still a challenging task. Here,
an attempt is made to investigate and to find out the best index among the fifteen indices
to monitor drought, since single index cannot provide the complete picture of a region.
Keeping in view of the data limitations and climate of a region, this study identifies the
best drought indices that can be used around the world with confidence and accuracy.
This study lessens the queries regarding the selection criteria to choose the best index. It
is hoped that this study will help the NHMCs to adopt the top indices to monitor drought
in their region with confidence and efficiency.

The long-term (1951-2014) monthly climatic data of precipitation (mm) and
temperature (maximum and minimum) have been used in this study. For calculating the
fifteen drought indices, sixty-four years data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD). These indices named; standardized precipitation index (SPI),
standardized precipitation temperature index (SPTI) or S-Index, standardized
precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), weighted anomaly standardized
precipitation index (WASPI), rainfall variability index (RVI), standardized soil moisture
anomaly index (SSMAI), Z-Score, modified CZI (MCZI), China Z-index (CZI), the
deciles index (DI), percent of normal precipitation index (PNPI), Palmer drought severity
index (PDSI), composite index (CI), percentage area weighed departure (PAWD), and
reconnaissance drought index (RDI). The performance of twelve indices is assessed with
SPI by using statistical criterion (Willmott, 1982; Willmott and Wicks, 1980), namely
standard deviation (STDEV), standard error of mean (SEM), mean bias error (MBE),
mean absolute error (MAE), standard error of estimate (SEE), coefficient of residual
Mass (CRM), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of adjustment (CA),
efficiency of model (EF), relative error in percentage (RE%), correlation coefficient (R),
ratio between both average estimation of drought index (ri), concordance index or index
of agreement (D), and confidence level (C).
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has 53 meteorological stations
distributed across the country with Sindh (8), Punjab (13), Balochistan (11), Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (12), Gilgit-Baltistan (5), Azad Jammu Kashmir (3) and Federally
Administrated Tribal Area (1) (Fig. 3.1). However, the spatial distributions of the stations
47
do not provide enough coverage for drought analysis and district level hazard mapping.
In order to fill vast gaps between PMD station locations, monthly gauged data
(0.5°×0.5°) of precipitation during 1951-2010 is acquired from the Global Precipitation
Climatological Center (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcc.html). This
data has a very strong correlation with the in-situ station rainfall data (Adnan et.al., 2015)
and had been used in many drought studies over the past years due to its record and
quality (Becker et al., 2013, Rouault and Richard, 2003; Garcia-Herrera et al., 2007; Liu
et al., 2009; Pietzsch and Bissolli, 2011; Raziei et al., 2011; Marengo et al., 2011; Kurnik
et al., 2011; Dai, 2011). To determine the drought propagation, monthly soil moisture
data of same resolution and duration as that of GPCC data (1951-2010) is obtained from
Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) (Fan and van den Dool, 2008).The drought hazard
index (DHI) is developed by analyzing the historical records of drought frequency,
dependency on seasonal precipitation and soil moisture to prepare district drought hazard
map of Pakistan.
3.3 Drought indices:
3.3.1 China Z-index (CZI):
Wilson-Hilferty cube root transformation is used to calculate CZI
(Kendal and Stuart, 1977). CZI formula is as follows;
( ) (3.1)
∑ ( ̅)
(3.2)
Where j is the current month, Cs is coefficient of skewness, n is the total

number of months in the record, σ is the standard variant also called Z-Index and xj is
precipitation of jth month.
3.3.2 Composite index (CI):
Zhang et al. (2006) developed this index to monitor the drought in China. The
same index was employed to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought
in Pakistan at an annual basis. CI uses the data of standardized precipitation index (Z) and
relative moisture index (M) as follows;
CI  aZ30  bZ90  cM 30
(3.3)
48
Where Z30 and Z90 indicate the SPI index for the 1-month and 3-months
respectively, M30 shows the monthly moisture index, a, b, and c are the coefficients
whose values are 0.47, 0.36 and 0.96 respectively.
(3.4)
Here, P is the precipitation, and PE is the potential evapotranspiration on

monthly basis. The potential evapotranspiration was calculated by the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith method (Allen et al., 1998).
3.3.3 Modified CZI (MCZI):
To calculate MCZI, Wu et al. (2001) used a median of precipitation instead of
mean precipitation. This attempt minimized the difference between MCZI and SPI.
3.3.4 Percent of normal precipitation index (PNPI):
Morid et al. (2006) and Masoudi and Hakimi, 2014 used the following equation to
monitor drought in a region.
( ) (3.5)
Where Pi is the total precipitation of each year, P is the average climatology for a
period from 1951 to2014.
3.3.5 Percentage area weighed departure (PAWD):
According to Rhynsburger (1973), it is commonly used in the fields of
meteorology and hydrology. As demonstrated by Adnan et al. (2015), that the percentage
area weighted departure (PAWD) is a very good tool to monitor drought conditions in
Sindh province of Pakistan. Thiessen Polygon Method (1911) is used to determine the
area factor of precipitation in Pakistan. The area factor is multiplied by the monthly or
annual rainfall, then the following method is used to calculate PAWD.
( ̅
( ̅
) (3.6)
Where xi is the precipitation of ith month, and ̅ is the normal precipitation.

3.3.6 Reconnaissance drought index (RDI):
Reconnaissance drought index (RDI) is a meteorological index that is used for
drought assessment. It is expressed as initial, normalized and standardized values
(Eqn.3.13). The initial value (αk) is based on the ratio between precipitation and potential
49
evapotranspiration (PET). The PET is very helpful for identification and assessment of
drought events. The normalized RDIn is the arithmetic mean of αk values, whereas the
standard RDIst uses the assumption that αk values follow the lognormal distribution. So,
RDI is computed by using the following equations as suggested by Taskiris and Vangelis
(2005).
∫
( (3.7)
̅̅̅̅
( ̅̅̅̅
(
Where Pij and PETij are the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the jth
month of the ith year, N is the total number of years, ̅ is the arithmetic mean of αk. yk is
the ln (αk (i)), ̅ is the arithmetic mean of yk and σyk is standard deviation.
3.3.7 Sc-Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
It is a significant meteorological index used in the United States to monitor
drought (Heim, 2002). Palmer (1965) considers precipitation, temperature and soil water
content to calculate PDSI. Several studies (e.g. Karl, 1986; Alley, 1984, Zoljoodi and
Didevarasl, 2013) have described the calculation procedure of this index. The final
equation of PDSI is as follows;
(3.8)
Where PDSIi is dry and wet period of initial month and Z is the anomaly of
Palmer moisture index. The constant values of 0.987 and 1/3 are derived from the linear
slope of line accessed from the extreme droughts. According to Wells et al.(2004), the
development of Sc-PDSI resolved many deficiencies experienced earlier in PDSI and its
data is freely available on the Koninklijk Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
website of Climate Research Unit (CRU) (http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi).The dataset
has been calculated globally for a period more than 110 years (1901-2012) with the
horizontal resolution of 0.5°×0.5° on monthly basis.
3.3.8 Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI):
SPEI calculation procedure is same as SPI. SPI uses the precipitation data only,
whereas SPEI uses both rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. The water
50
balance (the difference of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) is calculated
(Thornthwaite, 1948) at different time scales to get SPEI values. The Penmen Monteith
(PM) equation is used to calculate PET (Allen et al., 1998) as follows;
( ( ) (
(3.9)
(
Where ETo represents evapotranspiration (mmday-1); ∆ = saturated vapor pressure

slope (kPa°C-1); G = heat flux density of soil (MJ/m2day-1); Rn = net radiation (MJ/m2day-
1
); T = mean temperature (°C); u2 = average daily wind speed (ms-1); (es – ea)= deficit of
vapor pressure; γ = psychrometric constant (kPa°C-1).
The main advantage of SPEI is that it takes the PET data on a different time scales
to monitor the drought conditions. These timescales are very useful to calculate the
drought conditions in different hydrological sub-systems. SPEI is a standard variable and
its average value is 0 and deviation is 1. According to Abramowitz and Stegun (1964),
the classical approximation is used in the formula of SPEI as follows;
(3.10)
Where - ln ( for , Q is the probability of exceedance = - ( if ,

Q is replaced by 1-Q and the resultant SPEI symbol is reversed. The Co, C1, C2, d1, d2
and d3 are constants.
3.3.9 Standardized precipitation temperature index (SPTI):
Standardized precipitation temperature index (SPTI) or dryness index (Si) jointly
considers the precipitation and temperature as proposed by Ped (1975).
(3.11)
Where ∆T and ∆Q are the anomalies, σ∆T and σ∆Q are the respective standard
deviations at the station, calculated from long-term data series of temperature and
precipitation respectively. The values of the index range from very dry to very wet
conditions.
3.3.10 Standardized soil moisture anomaly index (SSMAI):
Monthly soil moisture data (1951-2014) produced by Leaky Bucket model at a
horizontal resolution (0.5°×0.5°) is used to calculate SSMAI. It is reasonably performed
51
well against the limited observation in a different region with a spatial resolution
(0.5°×0.5°) from 1948 to-date (Fan and van den Dool, 2004, 2008). According to Adnan
et al. (2015), a strong correlation is observed between the annual rainfall departure with
12-SPI (r = 0.97), rainfall departure with soil moisture (r = 0.80) and soil moisture with
SPI (r = 0.77) over Sindh province of Pakistan.
Soil moisture anomaly index (SMAI) was developed by Bergman et al. (1988) in
the mid1980, as a way to assess global drought conditions in the United States. Here a
slight modification incorporated to obtain standardized data. So, it could be easy to
compare with other drought indices.
̅
(3.12)
Where is the precipitation of jth month is, ̅ is the mean precipitation and σ is
the standard deviation.
3.3.11 Weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index (WASPI):
Lyon (2004) developed weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index
(WASPI) to monitor the precipitation in the tropical region. The monthly and annual
precipitation data are used to calculate WASP. The values range from most severe (-2.0)
to severe wetness (2.0), which is well correlated with other drought indices. Basically,
drought is termed as moisture deficit therefore generally 6 or 12 months’ rainfall
accumulation is used.
̅ ̅
∑ ( ̅̅̅̅
) (3.13)
Where Pi, PA is the monthly and annual rainfall, ̅ and ̅̅̅ is the monthly and
annual rainfall climatology, σi is the standard deviation of monthly rainfall and is
the standard deviation of WASP which is 0.44 calculated for Pakistan.
3.3.12 Z-score:
According to Triola (1995a), the equation of CZI is used to calculate Z-Score.
Furthermore, the data fitting adjustment Pearson type III or Gamma distribution does not
require by Z-Score and it might not represent in shorter duration as well as the SPI
(Edwards and McKee, 1997).
52
Table 3.1 Drought indices values and their classes.
The CZI, the SPEI, the MCZI, the Z-Score, the S Index, the RVI, the WASPI, the
SSMAI and the SPI have similar numerical value range (Table 3.1). Therefore, it is easy
to compare these indices. However, the ranges of Deciles (DI), PNPI and %AWD values
have been categorized into similar classes (Table 3.1). Here, the DI classes of 5 to 6 is
classified as normal 4-5 slightly below normal, 3-4 below normal, 2-3 is much below
normal, 1-2 very much below normal. The value excess of 90% is considered as a normal
period, the value less than 60% is considered as very much below normal, 70% much
below normal, 80% below normal and 90% slightly below normal.
3.3 Statistical tests:
The performance of twelve indices is assessed with SPI by using statistical
criterion represented in Table 3.2, namely; standard deviation (STDEV), standard error of
mean (SEM), mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), standard error of
estimate (SEE),coefficient of residual mass (CRM), root mean square error (RMSE),
coefficient of adjustment (CA), model efficiency (EF), relative error in percentage
(RE%), correlation coefficient(r), ratio between both average estimation of drought index
(ri), concordance index or index of agreement (D), and confidence level (C) (Willmott,
1982; Willmott and Wicks, 1980).
The lower values of MAE, RMSE, MBE, SEE, and SEM shows high efficiency
and vice versa (Tany et al., 2008). The positive and negative values describe over and
underestimation respectively (Wackernagel, 2003). CA represents the coefficient of
adjustment. EF closer to 1 represents model is more efficient and suitable, whereas a
negative value shows uncertainty and inconsistency in the result (Kouchakzadeh and
Nikhbakth, 2004).
53
Table 3.2 Statistical equation used for error estimation and performance of models.
Where, xi, yi show the values of SPI and the other indices respectively, ̅ and ̅
shows the long-term data average.
Positive values of CRM shows under-estimate and negative values over-estimate
(Zare’abyaneh et al., 2010). The correlation coefficient (R) or coefficient of
determination (R2) is a good test to determine the ability of the model to predict events
and it has been accepted by geographer the most reliable measure to test the model’s
ability to estimate events (McCuen and Snyder, 1975). The values near to 1 show very
good relationship.
54
Fig. 3.2 Geographical distribution of annual rainfall of 58 meteorological stations of
Pakistan.
The southern region (low latitude) receives less amount of precipitation as
compared to northern parts (high latitude) of Pakistan. The latitudinal distribution of
annual precipitation of that country shows a maximum increase between the 32°N to
36°N (Fig. 3.2).
The main reason of the high amount of annual rainfall in northern regions are the
two seasonal weather systems i.e. summer monsoon and western disturbances as
demonstrated by Ullah and Gao (2013), that occurs in summer and winter respectively.
Whereas, some of the southern parts of Pakistan also receive rainfall during the summer
or winter seasons because of these weather systems, however, the magnitude and
frequency of rainfall are less than the northern regions. The failure in seasonal rainfall
makes this region more vulnerable to drought. Therefore, the frequency, severity and
impacts of droughts are more widespread in southern parts of the country (Adnan et al.,
2015).
55
Fig. 3.3 Spatial correlation of SPI to 11 different drought indices over Pakistan.
3.6.1 Analysis of drought indices
The normalized data of SPI behave equally well for both dry and wet climates and
thus could be used to monitor dry and wet periods. The simplicity, versatility and least
data requirement make it a more widely used index around the world. Therefore, we used
SPI as a prime index to calibrate the other indices over Pakistan.
In this study, the time series analysis of fifteen drought indices along with
correlation coefficient for SPI with respect to RVI, MCZI, Z score, CZI, S-index, RDI,
SPEI, C Index, WASP Index, Sc-PDSI and SSMA Index have been computed for 58
stations in Pakistan. The spatial analysis was performed to find the Pearson correlation
coefficient (r) of SPI to other indices on annual basis (Fig. 3.3). The value of the
coefficient of determination (R2) varies 0.12 to 0.77. The highest value of Pearson
correlation coefficient (r) was 0.88 for SPEI and the lowest 0.34 for SSMAI.
56
Fig. 3.4 Histogram of relative drought frequency classes of SPI and Deciles, PCN, and
PAWD for Pakistan during 1951-2014.
It is noted that SPI has a very good correlation with SPEI, CI, RDI and Z-score
(Fig. 3.3). The value of SPI tends to be higher (less negative) in the dry period and lower
(less positive) in the wet period as compared to CZI, RVI, MCZI and Z-score. The R2
value varies from 0.56 to 0.60 between SPI and these indices. Similarly, the SSMAI, Sc-
PDSI and S-index also provide the lower values than the SPI during drought periods,
whereas the WASPI slightly overestimate the drought conditions.
The relative frequency of deciles, percent of normal (PCN), percentage area
weighted departure (PAWD) and SPI is calculated for dry and wet periods. The
histogram shows the dry period along x-axis as follows: Extreme drought (ED), severe
drought (SD), Moderate drought (MD) and Mild drought (MID), whereas we add all the
wet classes into a single class Wet (W) and Normal is shown by N (Fig. 3.4). The drought
and wet classes in DI, PCN and PAWD are higher than SPI, while normal status is much
lower. The total relative frequency of SPI for the dry, wet and normal period is observed
as 25%, 27% and 48% respectively. Similarly, the total relative frequency (%) of PAWD
and PCN is 42% for dry and 38% and 36% for wet and DI is 41% for both periods
respectively. These results depict the precipitation change impacts much higher to the
sensitivity of these indices, as compared to SPI.
57
Fig. 3.5 Annual time-series analysis of different drought indices in Pakistan.
The annual time series helps to identify the historical drought episode in a region.
Therefore, the long-term time series analysis of 15 drought indices has been conducted
for Pakistan (Fig. 3.5 and Fig. 3.6).The trend line was plotted by using linear regression
method. The analysis shows an increasing trend for all the drought indices except for SC-
PDSI and SSMAI where it is slightly decreasing.
58
Fig. 3.6 Time-series analysis of (a) Deciles (b) PAWD (c) PCN of Pakistan.
The result shows that all the parameters responded well during the drought period.
However, SPI, SPEI, RDI, CI, RVI, CZI, Z score, MCZ score and WASPI respond better
to drought identification and its onset. The negative values are reported less for SPI than
for CZI; the same result has also been identified by Wu et al. (2001). MCZI has also
shown good results for drought identification. Significant changes in the original CZI
observed by changing the median values with the mean of precipitation. As compared to
SPI, Z-score shows lower and higher values during dry and wet periods respectively.
The SPTI, SSMAI and Sc-PDSI show variability during dry and wet periods.
These indices indicate high negative values during the drought period. The value of
deciles, area weighted departure (%) and percent of normal are also good indices to
59
identify the drought period. These three indices also have the capability to capture the
historical drought years relative to negative SPI i.e. the deciles (1 and 2); PAWD below
40% and the percent of normal rainfall remains 60% (Fig. 3.6).
3.6.2 Statistical analysis:

The efficiency of any model may be evaluated by using the different statistical
test as discussed earlier. By comparing these results, we identified those models that
respond well to monitor drought in Pakistan (Table 3.3).The efficiency of a model
depends upon the error i.e. if the model shows the lowest error, then its accuracy will be
high and vice-versa. The two indices (SPEI and RDI) show the lowest values of all the
error and their sum of the error is lower than the rest of the drought indices. Moreover,
their efficiency, concordance and confidence index is close to 1 indicating the above two
indices are good to monitor drought. The negative value of MBE represents high bias
error, which shows prediction values are smaller than SPI.
The SPEI has the highest efficiency (76%), correlation (r= 0.88), concordance
(0.93) and confidence index (0.82), and minimum error values which make it a more
suitable drought indicator after SPI. Similarly, RDI has 57% efficiency, 0.81 linear
correlations and 0.89 concordances with a confidence level of 0.72. The
evapotranspiration and precipitation data used for the calculation of SPEI and RDI make
both indices helpful tools for the prediction and monitoring of drought in a region. The
negative coefficient of SPTI (S-Index) and SSMAI show ambiguity with respect to SPI.
The statistical test results applied for different drought indices show the best response to
drought monitoring in terms of their efficiency and confidence in the climate of Pakistan
after SPI (right to left), whereas the performance of deciles, %AWD and percent of
normal are good indices for drought monitoring in the selected region.
The trend and magnitude of the trend are calculated by using Mann Kendall and
Sen’s Slope tests on different drought indices. The hollow bars represent trends which are
not statistically significant at 95% confidence level based on Mann Kendal test. The
result shows that all the drought indices are increasing toward the positive side. Most of
the drought indices are statistically significant except PAWD, S-index, Sc-PDSI, SPI,
SSMAI and Z-Score.
60
Table 3.3 Statistical tests of performance for different drought indices across Pakistan.
Fig. 3.7 Magnitude of trend by using Sen’s Slope test of different drought indices.
The maximum magnitude of the trend is noted in PCN of rainfall increase (0.44)
per year, whereas the rest of the significant indices are increasing by a value of 0.01 to
0.02 per year (Fig. 3.7). This positive increase of all the drought indices represents the
reduction of drought events across whole Pakistan; however, there could be regional
differences in different climate zones of Pakistan which warrant further investigation.
3.6.3 Drought episode (1999-2002):
Severe and longest drought episodes are experienced over most parts of Asia
during the years (1999-2002) as indicated by Malik et al. (2013). The comparison of a
recent long episode of drought (1999-2002), as well as the historical drought period and
its intensity, was determined. This period was identified by all the drought indices.
However, the severity and intensity of drought for each of the index were different. The
61
Fig. 3.8 Behavior of different drought indices during long episode of drought (1999-
2002) across Pakistan.
Fig. 3.9 Performance of deciles, AWD (%) and PCN across Pakistan during 1999-2002.
SPTI highly responded to drought as the time period prolong. Almost, all the indices
show that drought slowly and gradually progresses and strengthen with the passage of
time, except SSMAI, shows weakening (Fig. 3.8). The onset of drought was reported in
62
1999 but we may see that most of the drought indices (RVI, Z-score, MCZI, CZI, RDI
and WASPI) were not able to capture this drought commencement. The identification of
drought (onset and retrieve) makes it the most complex hydro-meteorological disasters
among all the natural disasters. The Deciles, PAWD and PCN also identify the same
drought period mentioned above. The Deciles gradually reduced from 4 to 1, PAWD
from -20.7 % to -49.3% and PCN from 72.4% to 47.9% during 1999 to 2002 (Fig. 3.9).
All the indices indicate that 2002 was the most severe drought in Pakistan.
3.6.4 Development of drought hazard map:
3.6.4.1 Precipitation analysis
The time series analysis was conducted for each of the provinces to identify the
correlations between GPCC data and meteorological stations’ data during the entire
period (1951-2010) (Fig. 3.10). The annual precipitation analysis for Sindh province
indicates that the precipitation of in-situ data and GPCC coincides well with each other
(Fig. 3.10a). The time series analysis of Punjab province depicts slightly over-estimation
in mid-60’s by GPCC data (Fig. 3.10b). Similarly, overestimation of precipitation of
GPCC data up to 1980’s is also evident in the Balochistan region. The data coincides well
with the GPCC data in the later part of the twentieth century, probably because of the
addition of more meteorological stations of PMD in the region (Fig. 3.10c). At the KP
region, slight overestimation of precipitation has been observed up to 1960’s but the
agreement between the two datasets improves in the later years (Fig. 3.10d). This may
also be related to the establishment of more meteorological stations in KP. Similar
patterns were also observed in the GB and AJK regions where data agreement improves
over time (Fig. 3.10e, and Fig. 3.10f). The FATA station rainfall data is the only region
where GPCC data is under-estimating throughout the period to GPCC (Fig. 3.10g).
However, in-situ data may not be reliable as only one station data is available for this
region. Generally, the station rainfall data coincides well with the GPCC data which is
also evident in the rainfall analysis of entire Pakistan (Fig. 3.10h).
To determine the coefficient of determination (R2) for each of the regions, the
regression line is drawn between GPCC and the station's annual rainfall data. The highest
values of coefficient of determination were observed for Sindh (R2= 0.99), FATA (R2=
0.92), AJK (R2=0.89), Balochistan (R2= 0.88), Punjab (R2= 0.86), KP (R2= 0.86) and
63
Fig. 3.10 Comparisons between annual GPCC and meteorological stations rainfall (a)
Sindh (b) Punjab (c) Balochistan (d) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (e) Gilgit-Baltistan (f) Azad
Jammu Kashmir (g) FATA (h) Pakistan during 1951-2010.
GB (R2= 0.83) (Fig. 3.11). The overall annual rainfall of GPCC and 53 in-situ data of
PMD shows a strong relationship between the two datasets (R2= 0.96). Furthermore, the
high value of R2 signifies that almost 96% of the variation has been explained by
predicting the outcome, indicating that the GPCC data can be used if meteorological
station data are not available for the entire country.
64
Fig. 3.11 Correlation between annual GPCC and meteorological stations rainfall (a)
Sindh (b) Punjab (c) Balochistan (d) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (e) Gilgit-Baltistan (f) Azad
Jammu Kashmir (g) FATA (h) Pakistan during 1951-2010.
65
Fig. 3.12 Percentage of seasonal rainfall at districts of Pakistan during 1951-2010. The
light and dark colour bars represent the percent of rainfall in winter and summer
monsoon season respectively.
Two seasonal rainfall systems (monsoon and western disturbances) approach

Pakistan and contribute to most of the annual rainfall. The intra-seasonal variability of
rainfall is one of the major causes of floods and droughts in Pakistan (Muslehuddin et al.,
2005). To determine the contribution of seasonal rainfall over Pakistan, the percent of
normal rainfall is calculated for 145 districts of the country (Fig. 3.12). The analysis
shows that Sindh (78.2%) and Punjab (61.5%) provinces are highly dependent on
summer monsoon whereas the GB (41.6%) and Balochistan (43.7%) region rely mostly
on winter rainfall for their annual rainfall. The KP and FATA receive rainfall both in
summer (46.4 and 34.8%) and winter (30.4 and 36.3%) respectively. The high
dependency of rainfall on one season makes the region more vulnerable to droughts like
southern Pakistan (Adnan et. al., 2015 & 2016).
66
Fig. 3.13 Significant trends of annual precipitation over Pakistan.
The two non-parametric tests are used to identify the significance of the trend
(Mann-Kendall) and its magnitude (Sen’s Slope) in 145 districts of Pakistan during 1951-
2010. According to Mondal et al., (2012), both tests correspond to each other and
determine the positive and negative trends along with the magnitude of the slope. The
significance of annual precipitation is calculated at 95% confidence levels. Significant
positive (increasing) trends are identified in 29 districts of Pakistan i.e. Punjab (13),
FATA (6), KP (5), GB (4), Balochistan (1) while only one district of AJK showed a
negative trend (Fig. 3.13). Similar trends have been identified by Hanif et al. (2013). The
Sen’s slope method (Q) determined that the maximum increase of 3.58mm/year occurred
at Mohmand Agency (FATA) and a maximum decrease of -1.87mm/year occurred at
Neelum (AJK). The results show that the annual rainfall has significantly increased for
the majority of the northern and central districts of Pakistan. This increase may help to
improve the water scarcity problems and minimize the impacts of drought in this region.
We classified rainfall departure (%) on different timescales to identify the
intensity and category of droughts in Pakistan (Table 3.4). Keeping in view the
climatological behaviour of precipitation for each of the province/state, the different
range of percentage departure (%) along with drought category and intensity was defined
at different time scale. The advantage of using rainfall departure (%) is that it can easily
be calculated, and it does not require long-term data like other drought indices like SPI,
67
Table 3.4 Drought monitoring indicator for Pakistan.
SPEI, and RDI etc. By analyzing historical data of past sixty years (1951-2010) of
precipitation, it has been noticed that the drought intensity (mild to extreme) depends
upon the selection of timescale duration and we cannot calculate the high-intensity
drought (severe, extreme) on a smaller timescale (3-months or less).
3.6.4.2 Correlation analysis

In order to identify the climatic variation over a long period of time, the
percentage anomaly change (departure) is calculated for rainfall and soil moisture
(Equation 3.13). Then, the relationships of annual rainfall departure (ARD) and soil
moisture departure (SMD) with 12-months SPI are explored over different provinces of
Pakistan (Fig. 3.14 and Table 3.5). These results help to identify the temporal behaviour
of drought with respect to change in precipitation and soil moisture. Strong correlations
are observed between the ARD, SMD and 12-months SPI for all the provinces of
Pakistan (Table 3.5). The highest correlation has been observed at Sindh (ARD-12SPI)
while lowest values were found at GB (SMD-12SPI). These results depict that ARD to
12SPI and SMD are well correlated to each other. The results captured the variation in
soil moisture and rainfall departure during the historic drought year with high correlation
and appeared as good indicators to monitor drought over the region.
68
Table 3.5 Correlation analysis between ARD, 12-SPI and SMD for different regions of
Pakistan.
Fig. 3.14 Time series comparisons among 12-months SPI, percentage departure of soil
moisture and rainfall in Pakistan (1951–2010).
69
Fig. 3.15 Spatial distribution of correlation between SMD to SPI (3, 6, 9, 12 and 24
months) for Pakistan.
The analysis of precipitation and soil moisture variations shows that Sindh
experiences its worst drought during the study period in 1969 where the departures of
rainfall and soil moisture were -84.14% and -73.60% respectively (Fig. 3.14a). Severe
drought in Punjab was observed during 1972 where the rainfall and soil moisture
departures were -29.63% and -30.67% respectively (Fig. 3.14b). However, the maximum
deficit in soil moisture (-49.50%) was observed in 2000 over Punjab province in which
moderate drought condition was experienced. In Balochistan and FATA, the maximum
deficit in soil moisture and rainfall was observed in 2000 indicating extreme drought
(Fig. 3.14c and Fig. 3.14g). The years 2000 and 2001 were the most intense drought years
in the history of FATA. KP and GB experienced severe droughts in 2001 as indicated by
70
the lowest SPI (-1.86 and -1.2 respectively) due to rainfall departures, that in turn,
reduced the soil moisture (Fig. 3.14d and Fig. 3.14e). AJK experienced drought
conditions in 2002 where the rainfall and soil moisture departures were -26% and -31%
respectively (Fig. 3.14f). Overall, the country suffered from severe drought during 2000
and the drought conditions prevailed until the end of 2002 (Fig. 3.14h). The results also
indicate that deficiency in rainfall leads to lower values of SPI and reduced soil moisture
which ultimately enhances the drought severity over an area (Wu et al., 2001).
The soil moisture is a good indicator to predict drought and its departure (%)
helps to calculate the intensity of drought of a region (Adnan et al., 2015). The spatio-
temporal results of soil moisture help to identify the drought propagation over an area
with respect to time. Furthermore, the results identified the variation in the soil moisture
and rainfall over the past years. Based on this analysis, we may use the soil moisture data
as a good predictor of drought which laterally is helpful for the development of drought
hazard equation.
The spatial correlation is calculated between soil moisture departures (%) and SPI
at different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months) in each district of Pakistan (Fig. 3.15).
The districts of central and southern parts of Pakistan show a strong relationship between
the SMD and SPI and it becomes stronger as the time scale progresses (Kumar et al.,
2009). However, the correlation decreases at long time scale (24-months) for the whole
region. The correlation in northern parts of the country becomes weaken due to high
variability in precipitation and soil moisture which makes these areas less susceptible to
drought. The province of Sindh, Balochistan Punjab, KP, FATA, and AJK show a strong
correlation between soil moisture departure (%) and SPI at 9-months and 12-months for
Balochistan and GB. The highest correlation between SMD and SPI is experienced at the
district of Sindh (Larkana, r9-SPI= 0.86), Balochistan (Nasirabad, r12-SPI= 0.85), Punjab
(Mianwali r9-SPI= 0.81), KP (Lakki Marwat, r9-SPI= 0.81), FATA (FR Tank, r9-SPI= 0.76),
GB (Hunza Nagar, r12-SPI= 0.53) and AJK (Mirpur r9-SPI= 0.61).
3.6.4.3 Drought frequency analysis

The drought frequency analysis was identified for each of the districts of Pakistan.
The frequency analysis provides spatial details regarding the intensity and severity of
drought over the country. Based on 3-months SPI, mild and moderate droughts are found
71
Fig. 3.16 Drought frequency based on 3-months SPI (dry period) of Pakistan over 1951–
2010.
to be more frequent in northern and southern parts of the country. Furthermore, the
frequency of severe and extreme droughts is very low (Fig. 3.16). Total drought
frequency is high in the southern parts of the country including Sindh, southern Punjab
and some parts of Balochistan. The long-term historical data analysis shows that severity
of drought cannot be determined at short time scale (1, 2, 3-months SPI). The highest
frequency of mild drought is observed in most parts of Punjab, northwestern and
southeastern Balochistan, southern KP and FATA, and northern GB and AJK. The
highest frequency of moderate drought has observed in Sindh and southern Punjab
72
Fig. 3.17 Drought frequency based on 6-months SPI (meteorological drought) of Pakistan
over 1951–2010.
The most part of the country comprises of two wet periods (January to March and
July to September) lead by two dry periods (April to June and October to December)
whereas in some parts only one wet period (comprise three months) prevails during a
year. Keeping in view the climatological behaviour, we termed the 6-months, 9-months,
12-months and 12-months SPI as meteorological, agriculture, hydrological and extreme
hydrological drought respectively as discussed by Adnan et al., 2015.
The 6-months SPI shows that the highest frequency of mild droughts is observed
in most of the central and southern parts of Pakistan whereas the moderate droughts are
more frequent in the west to southwest part of the country including Sindh. Similarly,
73
Fig. 3.18 Drought frequency based on 9-months SPI (agriculture drought) of Pakistan
over 1951–2010.
severe and extreme drought frequency is highest in central and southern parts of Pakistan.
The total drought frequency in the southern half of the country including Balochistan,
Sindh and southern Punjab is very high which makes these regions more vulnerable to
meteorological droughts (Fig. 3.17).
The results of 9-months SPI shows that the drought frequency (mild) is very high
in central and northern parts of the country whereas the moderate and severe drought are
frequent in southern half (Fig. 3.18). The frequency of extreme drought is very low in the
country. The total drought frequency of agriculture drought is very high over different
74
Fig. 3.19 Drought frequency based on 12-months SPI (hydrological drought) of Pakistan
over 1951–2010.
areas of the country. These regions depend on single weather system and deficiency in
seasonal rainfall cause drought due to which agricultural activity remains at risk due to
different intensity of drought.
Based on 12-months SPI, the mild drought has been found to be more frequent in
most of the northern parts of the country whereas moderate, severe and extreme droughts
are more frequent in the southern parts of the country (Fig. 3.19). The drought frequency
is generally high in most parts of the country. Due to the low amount of seasonal rainfall,
the southwestern parts of the country remain highly vulnerable to hydrological drought.
Based on these results, we observed high-frequency drought over different regions of
Pakistan including of Sindh, Balochistan central Punjab and southern KP.
75
Fig. 3.20 Drought frequency based on 24-months SPI (extreme hydrological drought) of
Pakistan over 1951–2010.
The extreme hydrological drought is calculated over Pakistan based on 24-months
SPI (Fig. 3.20). The frequency of mild drought is more in northern Pakistan whereas the
intense (moderate, severe and extreme) droughts are common in the south. The results
show that the total drought frequency is very high over most of the central parts of the
country, but the Indus irrigation system offsets some of the immediate water stress and
impacts of drought.
The analysis on SPI on different timescale (3, 6, 9, 12 and 24) indicates that the
frequency of severe droughts is more in southern districts of Pakistan. The climate of
southern Pakistan is arid to extremely arid and crop water demands remain very high due
76
to high temperature and evapotranspiration. The low rainfall and high evaporative
demand of the atmosphere deplete the soil moisture and increase the probability of
intense drought. Furthermore, the crop water requirement is very high and proper
irrigation is required for agricultural activity in this region.
3.6.4.4 Severe droughts in Pakistan

By analyzing the historical data recorded (1951-2010), the most severe drought
years has been identified i.e. 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000, 2001, and 2002 over Pakistan and
the soil moisture anomaly was also calculated (Fig. 3.21 and Fig. 3.22). The results show
that most parts of the country were under drought during the above six years. However,
the southern parts of the country were most vulnerable to droughts. The soil moisture
deficit ranges between -50% to -75% (well below than normal) in most of the central
drought-affected districts. Moreover, the soil moisture deficit was very much below
normal (-100%) during the rest of the drought years especially in southern regions of the
country. The spatial analysis identified that longest drought period was experienced in
2000-2002. This consecutive three-year drought covered two-thirds of the country with
intensity ranging from moderate to extreme.
The Fig. 3.23 shows inflow and outflow data assessed in million acre-feet (MAF)
from PMD during the months of June to September. The reservoirs are mostly filled
during this period due to snow melting along with the good amount of precipitation
during monsoon season. This rainfall not only fulfills the crop water needs of the region
but also provides water for storage in the dams. According to Indus River System
Authority (IRSA) report, 2011, the total water storage capacity of Pakistan is 30 days
whereas the minimum recommended storage capacity is 120 days for developing
countries. According to Bolch (2017), the Asian glaciers are reliable water sources and
major rivers in Asia originate from high mountains. Furthermore, the high elevation
regions receive little precipitation and agriculture activity highly depends on the water
from the surrounding mountains. The glaciers melt can be the unique source of fresh
water in areas lying near to glacier during drought months. Furthermore, the annual melt
from glaciers upstream fills more than two-thirds of the reservoir storage volume of
Tarbela, even in normal precipitation years (Pritchard, 2017).
77
Fig. 3.21 12-months SPI of most severe historical drought years in Pakistan.
Fig. 3.22 Soil moisture anomaly (%) of most severe historical drought years in Pakistan.
78
Fig. 3.23 Water inflow and outflow (MAF) of Tarbela reservoir in Pakistan (1987-2016).
The mean annual (1987-2016) inflow and outflow at Tarbela reservoir are 40.1 and
36.2 MAF. The total water inflow marginally dropped at Tarbela dam during the drought
years (2000-2002) from 32.3 to 36.8 (MAF) and outflow dropped from 27.14 to 33.7
MAF (Fig. 3.23). However, the water inflow and outflow decreases significantly in
downstream (central and southern Pakistan) reservoirs of Pakistan during drought years.
The historical data shows that northern Pakistan is less susceptible to drought than central
and southern Pakistan. The annual water demand cannot be fulfilled in central and
southern Pakistan with only single source of water unless the seasonal rainfall plays its
contribution particularly to carry out agriculture activity. The results clearly show that
rainfall deficiency, especially during monsoon season, leads to severe drought conditions
and affect the water reservoirs especially in central and southern Pakistan.
3.6.4.5 Drought hazard index

Based on analysis of climatological data (1951-2010) of drought, the drought
category is identified for each of the districts. Each district is put into a category after the
analysis of historical data of drought during 1951–2010 (Fig. 3.24). Each category is
based on the return period of drought intensity and its percentage affected area (Table
3.6). The results show that the extreme droughts of CAT-IV were experienced in most
regions of the country including southern Sindh, southwestern Balochistan, southern
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Punjab, KP and FATA where more than 80% of the area was affected. Most of the CAT-I
and CAT-IV extreme droughts were experienced in northern areas like Skardu (GB) and
Kotli (AJK). These results help to prepare the drought hazard map which ultimately is
used to develop drought contingency plan.
Keeping in view the climatology and dependency on seasonal rainfall, the rating
score was assigned for each of the class for Sindh and other regions (Table 3.7). Based on
above results, the drought hazard equation is developed by incorporating the data of
seasonal percentage annual rainfall, drought frequency and seasonal soil moisture
dependency ratio. Based on these results, the five classes (extremely high to very low)
have been introduced and the drought hazard map of Pakistan has been prepared for 145
districts (Fig. 3.25). Similar classes have been introduced in Iran by Asrari et al. (2012)
(Table 3.8). The following equation is developed to calculate the drought hazard index
(DHI);
( ) (3.14)
Where Td = total number of drought; Ty = total number of year; SIndex= seasonal

(winter/monsoon) dominant rainfall index (Table 3.7); for monsoon, SMi-j = soil moisture
(July to December) and for winter SMi-j = soil moisture (January to June); SMAnnual =
annual soil moisture.
Based on the DHI, the district drought hazard map has been prepared for Pakistan.
Most of the country is vulnerable to droughts but the southern parts are more vulnerable
to droughts as compared to northern parts. Out of 145 districts assessed, 19 districts are
extremely vulnerable, 24 are highly, 56 are moderately, 33 are low, and 12 are very less
vulnerable. The provincial results show that 15 districts in Balochistan, 3 in Punjab and 1
in Sindh are highly vulnerable to drought. Most of the highly vulnerable districts lie in
Balochistan, Sindh and southern Punjab. The map shows that the southwestern and
southeastern parts of the country are more susceptible to droughts as these regions
receive the major part of annual rainfall during winter and summer rainfall respectively.
Therefore, the deficiency in the seasonal rainfall leads to high-intensity drought in these
districts. The districts of northern Pakistan are less vulnerable to drought due to the two
seasonal rainfall systems (monsoon in summer and western disturbance in winter).
80
Table 3.6 Drought categories, percentage of area affected, intensity and return period for
districts of Pakistan.
Fig. 3.24 Categories and intensity of drought in 145 districts of Pakistan.
81
Table 3.7 Criteria used for the hazard assessment of drought using percentage of normal
rainfall for different regions of Pakistan.
Table 3.8 The severity class used in the hazard map of Pakistan
Fig. 3.25 Drought hazard map of Pakistan.
82
The study investigated the drought conditions by using fifteen drought indices in
Pakistan. The performance of precipitation based drought indices (MCZI, Z-score, CZI,
WASPI and RVI) is similar to SPI, however, the intensity varies. The SPTI, SSMAI and
Sc-PDSI indicate high variation towards negative values, whereas the CI did not show
variation. The deciles are more sensitive to drought conditions in terms of intensity,
whereas PAWD and PCN showed insignificant drought intensity. The performance-based
statistical analysis shows that SPEI and RDI are the best drought indices as these two use
evapotranspiration and precipitation data, which enable them to depict a more realistic
picture of drought conditions. The trend analysis shows that almost all drought indices
are significantly increasing towards the positive side, resulting in more wetness than
dryness. All the drought indices efficiently captured the longest episode of drought 1999-
2002. In the light of above results, it is recommended to use the SPI, SPEI, RDI and
deciles to monitor drought conditions in Pakistan and surrounding region. However, the
development of new composite drought index (CDI) comprising rainfall, temperature,
and remote sensing index is needed which could be an advantage to monitor and
identifying the drought conditions in the region.
This study provides information regarding the drought vulnerability distribution
in Pakistan during 1951-2010. The GPCC data shows a better performance in association
to the station data of precipitation over the whole provinces (maximum in Sindh, R2=
0.99) as well as in the country (R2= 0.96). The Sindh and GB regions highly depend on
monsoon (78%) and winter (42%) rainfall respectively. The deficiency in the seasonal
rainfall is one of the major reasons for drought occurrence in the country. The rainfall has
decreased by -3.34mm/yr over some areas of AJK, but it is not statistically significant.
The rainfall has significantly increased over Punjab, KP and FATA (maximum of
3.58mm/yr) at 95% confidence level. Based on different timescales (3, 6, 9, 12 and 24) of
SPI, the drought frequency was calculated to identify the type and intensity of drought
which shows that the mild droughts are more frequent in northern Pakistan, while intense
and severe droughts are prevailed in central and southern Pakistan. The SPI results show
that high-intensity drought cannot be determined at smaller timescale (3-months or less),
which makes it much more realistic.
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Using the climatological data of SPI and soil moisture, we identified the most
intense droughts years (i.e. 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000, 2001 and 2002) that occurred in
Pakistan which covers two third part of the country. The district drought hazard map of
Pakistan has been prepared by considering the seasonal rainfall dependency, drought
frequency, and soil moisture deficiency. The total 19 districts of Pakistan i.e. one district
of Sindh (Tharparkar),15 districts of Balochistan (Chagi, Dera Bugti, Gawadar,
Jaffarabad, Kech, Kharan, Lasbella, Mastung, Nushki, Pishin, Qalat, Qilla Abdullah,
Quetta, Washuk, Ziarat) and 3 of Punjab (Bahawalpur, Lodhran, RYKhan) are extremely
vulnerable to drought. The results of this study provide a tool for disaster managers, food
security planners, agriculturists, agronomist, researcher and policymakers to develop a
contingency plan of adaptation and mitigation of drought challenges for 21st century
towards sustainable development.
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Chapter 4
Drought vulnerability in shifting agro-climatic zones
of Pakistan
85
4.1 Introduction:
Agro-climatic classification helps to determine the different agrarian features of a
region. It provides a useful insight to farmers to choose their crops according to the soil
and climate conditions of their region. In this chapter, we identified the shifting of
moisture index from average values in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan. The
study reveals that almost 87% of Pakistan is in extremely arid to semi-arid zones, a 5%
decrease over the last 30 years (1981–2010). The largest decrease of 8% and an increase
of 5% were observed in the extremely arid and humid zones, respectively. An agro-
climatic regional analysis identifies 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000, 2001 and 2002 years when
the most severe droughts were observed during the study period. The annual precipitation
trends show a significant increase of 0.828 mm/year in arid regions, whereas the
maximum temperature trends show a significant increase of 0.014°C/year and
0.018°C/year in extremely arid and humid regions, respectively. The trend of minimum
temperature shows an increase over the whole region, which may place pressure on the
water demands of crops. This research work has been published in the International
Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society (Wiley) on January 2017.
We also investigated the impacts of meteorological parameters on
evapotranspiration (ET) to estimate the possible change in reference evapotranspiration in
different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan by using observed climatological records for
thirty years (1981-2010). Analyses were done based on assumed changes (±20%) in a
single and/or multiple observed meteorological parameters from their climatological
mean values. The analyses indicate that 20% increase in meteorological parameters may
enhance the total (annual) ET demand in four agro-climatic zones i.e. extremely arid,
arid, semi-arid and humid. The study provides important information for climate
policymakers with respect to planning, adopting measures and formulating future
strategies in agro-climatic regions since water demand is expected to increase and it may
put more pressure on the available water reserves in Pakistan during the 21st century. The
present research work is submitted in two parts; the part one is published in Journal of
Arid Land (Springer) and the second part are under review in the Journal of
Meteorological Application, Royal Meteorological Society (Wiley).
86
Climate classification basically organizes single or multiple climatic parameters
to identify the similarities of a region (Griffiths, 1976). The formula of classification
sometimes becomes very complex. Different climatologists have used different
techniques according to their objectives for climate classification all over the world.
Some renowned classifications are Koppen (1936); Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO), 1981; Le Houuerou et al. (1996); Fischer et al. (1995); Zuo (1996); Zuo et al.
(1996a, 1996b); White (1998); and Hutchinson et al. (2005). Similarly, the classification
for Pakistan has been carried out by Kazi (1951), Nasarullah (1968), Shamshad (1988),
Chaudhry and Rasul (2004), Hussain and Lee (2009), Adnan (2009), Sarfraz et al. (2014)
and Haider and Adnan (2014).
Agro-climatic and agro-ecological zones provide useful information about the
targeted environment to carry out agriculture research (Corbett, 1996). These zones have
inter-relationships not only between climates but between farming systems or agronomies
and different environmental characteristics (White et al., 2001). Precipitation and
evapotranspiration are two important factors which play very important roles in agro-
meteorology, hydrology, applied climatology and water resources management
(Subrahmanyam, 1982). The agro-climatic classification for East Asia and Africa was
undertaken on the basis of the length of the growing period (White, 1998). Temperature
data are used for the thermal classification of Pakistan, which categorizes climate into
five regions ranging from hot to cold (Zahid and Rasul, 2011). To classify the climate of
Pakistan, the most popular approach of Reddy and Reddy (1973) was applied using data
of reference evapotranspiration instead of potential evapotranspiration, which has shown
that Pakistan lies between an arid and humid climate (Chaudhry and Rasul, 2004; Adnan,
2009). Five different aridity indices have been used by taking the data (1960-2009) of 54
climate stations for climate classification of Pakistan. This research identified that semi-
arid to extreme arid areas cover 75–88%, while the humid zone constitutes ~0.1–13%
(Haider and Adnan, 2014).
Rubel and Kottek (2010) provided an estimate of shifts of climate zone over the
global land area in 21st Century by considering different scenarios. The largest shifts were
between equatorial, arid, warm temperature, snow and polar climates. According to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR-5),
87
Earth’s climate is warming and the South Asia will be influenced by climate-related
disasters like droughts, floods, epidemic diseases and heat wave (Carabine et al., 2014).
The assessment report identified that land degradation occurs on 10–20% of the dry land
(MEA, 2005). The livelihood of 250 million people around the world is directly affected
by land degradation (e.g., desertification), and 100 million people of more than 100
countries are under threat (UNCCD, 2006).
Conceptually, aridity and drought have different meanings. Aridity is the long-
term average climate representing the permanent features of a region, whereas drought is
a temporary phenomenon that may last for several months to years due to prolonged
deficiency of moisture (Palmer, 1965; Agnew and Anderson, 1992). Regional aridity may
be due to high pressure, continental winds, rain shadow effects and cold ocean currents
(Thompson, 1975). Drought may occur in both arid and humid zones, but the most severe
impacts of drought are experienced in arid regions. The inter-annual variability of
precipitation and greater probability of below-normal rainfall are major reasons for
drought vulnerability in arid zones (Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008).
The spatial component of drought is very strong in arid regions due to the spatial
variability of rainfall (Sen, 2008). The long-term climatic conditions in terms of
Milankovitch cycles (Hays et al., 1976; Roe, 2006) and short-term climatic variations,
such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and
Atlantic Oscillation (AO), have major effects on the drought frequency in United States
and other regions of the world (McCabe et al., 2004).
Droughts are the most devastating hydro-meteorological natural disaster that has
an impact on the economy in many countries around the world, including the USA (Cook
et al., 2007). Droughts are difficult to predict in their initial stages. They are identified
when they are properly established. Their slow commencement and undefined end make
it very difficult to take immediate defence strategies and action (Pereira et al., 2002).
Droughts have socio-economic as well as environmental impacts in both developed and
under-developed countries. However, better adaptation and mitigation may lessen their
impacts (Maliva and Missimer, 2012).
The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) identifies the socio-economic
aspects of life around the world depending upon climate variability and its change
88
(CCSP, 2004). The effects of climate variability and change can place intense stress on
the environment of urban areas, which ultimately increases the frequency of heat waves,
flash floods and droughts (Rosenzweig et al., 2011). It is evident that human influence
has been dominant in governing the rise in global temperature: 0.6°C to 0.7°C during
1951–2010, and it will exceed 1.5°C by the end of the 21st Century for all scenarios
except Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 (Stocker, 2014).
The time series of long-term (1876–1993) reconstructed temperature reveals a
warming trend with a total change of 0.2°C since the beginning of the last century in
Pakistan. The overall increase in the area-weighted mean temperature of Pakistan was
0.64°C during 1901–2007, and it is continuously rising at 0.06°C per decade (Afzaal et
al., 2009). Monsoon rainfall in Kashmir shows a decreasing trend in magnitude, which is
within the catchment areas of the eastern rivers of Pakistan (Kumar and Jain, 2010). The
precipitation analysis of 48 stations in Pakistan has shown an increasing trend during
1951–2010 in annual and monsoon rainfall in the upper parts of Pakistan (Hanif et al.,
2013).
Pakistan is an agranian country with diversified climatology and topography.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS, 2011), the land utilization survey
report of Pakistan indicates that an area of 34.15 Mha is agricultural land, while the rest
(23.60 Mha) is un-cultivable. Moreover, the arable land area is 29.91 Mha; only 4.24
Mha is forested. The rainfed agriculture forms 25% of total cultivated areas (Baig et al.,
2013), which plays a very important role in the national economy.
Glaciers and rainfall are the main sources of freshwater for agricultural activity in
Pakistan (Naseer, 2013; Haider and Adnan, 2014). Human health is strongly influenced
by the climate extremes of temperature (Patz et al., 2005; Hondula et al., 2014). The
extreme precipitation frequency has increased due to probable increase of warm climate
(Allen and Ingram, 2002; Min et al., 2011). Urban areas can be greatly damaged due to
temperature, precipitation and wind storm extremes (Munich, 1999; Re, 2001). The
increase in temperature has significant impacts on the hydrological cycle (Elshamy et al.,
2006). Evapotranspiration and crop water demands are already higher in southern parts of
Pakistan and are increasing (Naheed and Rasul, 2010).
89
In the light this discussion and climate change scenarios, this study is important
for identifying the changing climatic zone, and for determining the future trends of
precipitation and temperature in different agro-climatic zones on a monthly, seasonal and
annual basis. The study highlights the shifting of zones, their vulnerability towards
drought and more importantly the trends of precipitation and temperature which will help
the policy makers to make contingency plans and farming community to grow their crops
according to the potential of that region. We identified the sensitivity of drought and
evapotranspiration in different agro-climatic zones in Pakistan. Time series analysis of 12
months SPI helps to determine the historical drought years. Moreover, the intensity, type
and sensitivity of drought are also identified in each agro-climatic zone. Finally, this
research will help the agricultural community, e.g., farmers and water resources
managers, to plan drought mitigation and adaptation strategies according to the climatic
conditions of the region.

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is estimated from meteorological data, as its
direct assessment is difficult. Therefore, the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation from the
FAO is considered the best model in different climates; it requires the climatological data
of temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed (Allen et al., 1998;
Rasul and Mahmood, 2009). The moisture index (MI) is the percentage ratio of deficit or
surplus of rainfall to the reference evapotranspiration. It is a good indicator to identify
aridity and drought of different climatic regions. In this study, this index is used for agro-
climatic classification of Pakistan. The moisture index (MI) was calculated using the
climatological normal of Precipitation (P) and Evapotranspiration (ETo), each for 30
years i.e. 1951–1980 and 1981–2010.
The identical features and characteristics were developed by the modified
Thornthwaite approach (Thornthwaite, 1948). This method uses the potential
evapotranspiration (PET) and rainfall data to calculate the moisture index. We used the
data of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) to achieve a better response of crops and
vegetation. The same criterion was adapted to classify the climate of India and Africa
(Reddy and Reddy, 1973). However, by sticking to the climatic conditions of Pakistan,
two new classes (viz. extremely arid and very humid) have been introduced.
90
Table 4.1 Climatic zones of Pakistan based on moisture index.
Low rainfall regions which receive less than 250 mm annual rainfall are known to
be the arid region (IPCC, 2007), or constitute those regions where the annual rainfall is
between 80 to 350 mm and inter-annual variability of rainfall is between 50 to 100%
(UNESCO, 1979). Based on the historical data of temperature, precipitation, and
evapotranspiration, eight climate zones were identified. Noting the severity of the
situation, the subgroups extremely arid and very humid were introduced in climatic zones
for which the moisture index is below -90% and above 50% respectively (Table 4.1).
The monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation and temperature (maximum and
minimum) trends were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test at the 95% significance
level (Mann, 1945; Hamed and Rao, 1998). The equation of Sen’s Slope was used to
determine the trend magnitude (Sen, 1968; Huth and Pokrona, 2004). According to
Mondal et al. (2012), Sen’s slope responds to the Mann-Kendall test values to give the
trends (i.e. increasing or decreasing) and slope magnitude respectively.
Four meteorological parameters including temperature, solar radiations, humidity
and wind speed are chosen to observe their impacts on evapotranspiration in four agro
zones of Pakistan as demonstrated by Martin et al. (1989). In addition, ET changes are
driven by combination of these climatic variables as indicated by Liu et al. (2010). The
behaviour of these parameters is quite different in each month and season as they
influence the evapotranspiration in different manners. Thirty years (1981-2010) monthly
observational meteorological data of the four parameters (temperature, solar radiations,
humidity and wind speed) of 58 stations are gathered (PMD, 2013). Based on
temperature and rainfall data, five seasons are identified i.e. spring (March and April),
summer (May and June) monsoon (July to September) and autumn (October and
November) and winter (December to February).
91
The FAO-PM method calculates the ET on seasonal as well as annual basis.
Moreover, the sensitivity of ET is identified by varying different meteorological
parameters within a range of ±20%; as such approach is used for a dry region in India
(Goyal, 2004). IPCC (2007a) report suggest that in case, carbon dioxide emission is
doubled in the 21st century, then the average global temperature would rise between 2 to
4.5°C with the best assessment of 3°C, but it would not be uniform throughout the world.
Therefore, the future scenario is generated by aforementioned meteorological parameters
between the ranges of ±20 % to identify the impacts on ET in four agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan.
Similarly, a hypothetical future scenario is generated for estimating total demand
of ET to anticipate changes in each climatic parameter due to climate change. This gives
an idea about the impacts on ET (increase/decrease) with respect to the meteorological
parameters during each season in the agro-climatic zones. This is achieved by 10%
increase in temperature with all possibilities of ±10% change in meteorological
parameters of net radiations, vapor pressure and wind speed with percentage change over
normal conditions. Lastly, the percentage change of ET with respect to changes in
temperature, vapor pressure, net radiations and wind speed is also calculated
Many scientists (e.g., Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1977; Eagleson, 1978; Mavi, 1986;
Michael, 1986; Subramanya, 1984; Viessman et al., 1977; Wilson, 1974) used different
models for calculation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO)-Penman-Monteith (PM) equation (Monteith, 1965) was used in sub-
tropical and semi-humid region of Bangladesh to determine the impact of meteorological
parameters on ET (Ali et al., 2009). The quantity and accuracy of available data and
possible computations with data lead to the most suitable method to calculate ET for a
selected region. The FAO-PM method is considered to be the best model for estimation
of ET in any climatic zone (Allen et al., 1998).
The water vapors exert a partial air pressure which is directly associated with
water quantity in the air and measures the water content.
( (4.1)
Where es = mean saturation vapor pressure; Tmax = maximum temperature (°C); and
Tmin = minimum temperature (°C).
92
( ( ) (4.2)
(
(( ) (4.3)
The mean air temperature (°C) is used to measure the slope curve of saturation
vapor pressure. The pressure exerted by the water in air is called actual vapor pressure
and is denoted by ea .
(( ( ) ( ( ) (4.4)
The difference Rns  Rnl between incoming solar radiations Rns and outgoing solar
radiations Rnl is known as net solar radiations Rn. In terms of the equation it is written as
(4.5)
( (4.6)
Where α is the surface albedo and Rs is the incoming shortwave radiation. Rs can
be calculated by utilizing the Angstrom’s formula as suggested by Doorenbos and Pruitt
(1977).
( ( )) (4.7)
Where (n/N) is the ratio of observed sunshine hours and maximum possible
sunshine hours and Ra is the extraterrestrial radiation (Allen et al., 1998).
The net long-wave radiation is expressed as:
( ) { √ } * + (4.8)
Where Rnl is the net long-wave radiation (MJm-2day-1); Tmax and Tmin are the
maximum and minimum temperatures in Kelvin (K) respectively; σ = Stefan Boltzmann
constant; Rso is clear sky shortwave radiation.
4.2.1 Run method (RM):
The Run method is used to determine drought period and to calculate statistical
characteristics of drought. Yevjevich (1967) stated that the drought period derived by RM
as a function of hydrological variables remains below a threshold or critical level during a
consecutive number of intervals. The advantage of RM is its ability to determine the
drought characteristics analytically by data generated in terms of duration and deficit if
93
the random probability distributions of prime variables are known (Cancelliere et al.,
1998; Fern´andez and Salas, 1999).
4.2.2 Regional drought identification model (ReDIM):

Identifying the characteristics of drought over a local region is useful for planning
and managing water shortage risks and for implementing preparedness and adaptation
measures. A regional drought identification model (ReDIM) was adopted in this study. It
uses the SPI and Run method (RM) to determine historical drought events, return period,
regional drought analysis, and water deficit period (Rossi et al., 2003).

The climatology of each agro-climatic zone for precipitation and temperature
(maximum and minimum) during 1981–2010 is shown in Fig. 4.1. The results show that
the maximum amount of rainfall is observed during the monsoon season, i.e. July, August
and September. The western disturbances also cause rainfall during winter (i.e. December
to March). The annual precipitation and diurnal range of temperature in extremely arid,
arid, semi-arid and humid zones are 112.9 mm, 200.2 mm, 507.9 mm, 1304.6 mm; and
33.9°C, 34.7°C, 35.4°C and 33.3°C, respectively. The maximum temperatures are
observed during May to September with the highest in June, whereas the minimum
temperatures are observed during December to February with the lowest in January.
4.3.1 Shifting of agro-climatic zones:
The moisture index was calculated over the two different periods (1951–1980 and
1981–2010) for precipitation and evapotranspiration, which identified the different agro-
climatic zones of Pakistan (Fig. 4.2). The two different periods are used to identify the
shifting of agro-climatic zones that will help to determine the enhancement or reduction
of moisture index. This shifting of zones will provide the outlook for agriculture
community to grow their crops according to the potential of the region. The first period
(1951–1980) shows that almost 56% of the area lies between extremely arid to the arid
climate, 31% semi-arid, and 13% humid climate. The second period (1981–2010) shows
that 51% of the area comprises extremely arid and arid climates, 31% semi-arid and
almost 18% humid climate. The two climatic periods indicate that southern Pakistan
experiences an extremely arid to the arid climate, while the climate of northern Pakistan
is more diversified and is less vulnerable to drought compared to southern regions.
94
Fig. 4.1 Precipitation and temperature (maximum, minimum) climatology (1981–2010)
of different agro-climate zones of Pakistan: (a) extremely arid, (b) arid, (c) semi-arid, and
(d) humid.
Monsoon rainfall contributes to lessening the moisture stress and keeping the
water table steady, especially in southern parts of Pakistan (Chaudhry and Rasul, 2004).
The variability of this monsoonal rainfall is one of the major reasons for hydrological
disasters in terms of floods or drought, especially in the southern parts of the country
(Adnan et al., 2015). The reduction in seasonal rainfall is the major cause of drought,
which lowers the soil moisture, making agricultural activity to suffer greatly. The shifting
of moisture regime was observed over the whole region, i.e. 8%, 4% and 3% decreases in
area for the extremely arid, wet semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions, respectively; while
there is an aerial increase of 5% in humid, 3% in arid, semi-arid, very humid, and 1% in
the wet sub-humid region. The results indicate that the maximum areal shifting is
observed from extremely arid to the arid region and semi-arid to the humid region.
4.3.2 Statistical analysis in agro-climatic zones:
The summary of statistical parameters of annual rainfall during 1951–2014 of
different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan shows that the annual rainfall mean ranges from
112.93–1333.72 mm with a maximum of 1713.12 mm in the humid zone, and a minimum
95
Fig. 4.2 Agro-climatic classification of Pakistan during 1951–2010. (a) 1951–1980; (b)
1981–2010.
of 19.07 mm in the extremely arid region. The standard deviation values show maximum
and minimum variation in the humid and extremely arid zones, respectively.
The non-parametric skew is negative for arid and semi-arid regions, as the mean
values are less than the median (Helsel and Hirsch, 2002). Skewness measures more
precisely the symmetry or lack thereof, with positive or negative tailed distributions. The
distribution is called highly skewed for skewness values less than -1 or greater than +1,
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moderately skewed for values -0.5 to -1.0 or 0.5 to 1.0, approximately symmetric for
values -0.5 to 0.5, and for perfect symmetry, the skewness is 0 (Bulmer, 2012). Positive
values of skewness show that data are positively skewed with moderately skewed in the
extremely arid region and approximately symmetric in the remainder of the zones.
The Kurtosis determines the height and sharpness of the peak; higher values
represent sharp peaks, and negative values mean lower or less distinct peaks. The value
of kurtosis greater than 0 means that the central peak is sharper and higher; the central
peak is lower and broader for negative values (Westfall, 2014). The kurtosis values of
extremely arid regions represent a sharper and broader peak with shorter and thinner tails;
whereas the peak is lower and broader with longer and fatter tails for arid zones. The
coefficient of variation (CV) measures the dispersion of data around the mean in a data
series. The highest value of CV of the rainfall (55.57%) is experienced in the extreme
arid region and the lowest (14.27%) in the humid zone.
The time series data of 12 months SPI shows that moderate to extreme droughts
were reported in all agro-climatic zones during 1952, 1969, 2000, 2001 and 2002. Based
on the historical data, the most intense drought reported in the agro-climatic zones was
2002 in extreme arid, 1969 in arid, 1971 in semi-arid, and 1960 in the humid zones of
Pakistan (Fig. 4.3).
The dissimilarity in intense drought year indicates the different climatic behaviour
of each zone and their sensitivity towards drought. The high temporal data variability
makes it more difficult to predict the onset of drought, as suggested by Pereira et al.
(2002). The Fig. 4.3 clearly shows that conditions in 1968 were normal, but the severe
drought was experienced in the next year (1969). Sometimes, a short interval like 1- a
month or 2-months SPI does not depict the true picture. Therefore, it is better to monitor
the drought over a 3-month, 6-month, or 9-month basis to identify the onset of drought.
The 3-SPI is used to identify a dry period, 6-SPI (meteorological), 9-SPI (agriculture),
12-SPI (hydrological) and 24-SPI (extreme hydrological) drought, as recommended by
Adnan et al. (2015).
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Table 4.2 Statistical parameters of annual rainfall during 1951–2014 for different agro-
climatic zones of Pakistan.
Fig. 4.3 Time series of 12 months SPI (drought year) in different agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan (a) extremely arid (b) arid (c) semi-arid (d) humid.
It is interesting to note that semi-arid regions are more vulnerable to
meteorological, agriculture and hydrological drought compared to the other zones,
whereas more intense drought is observed in extremely arid regions. We may, therefore,
conclude that an arid climate is more vulnerable to drought due to its climatic features,
high rate of evapotranspiration and inter-annual variability of rainfall. The amount and
intensity of drought increase with time (Table 4.3).
98
Table 4.3 Drought type, intensity and amount in different agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan.
Fig. 4.4 Regional analysis based on run method of all agro-climatic zones of Pakistan: (a)
rainfall deficit (mm), (b) area deficit (%), (c) 12-months SPI.
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Table 4.4 Trend analysis of monthly rainfall (mm), maximum and minimum temperature
(°C) in extremely arid zones.
Fig. 4.5 Time series analysis of annual precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum
temperature (°C) in extremely arid zones.
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The regional analysis was conducted to determine the response of 12-months SPI
to total rainfall deficit (mm) corresponding to area deficit (mm) in all the agro-climatic
zones of Pakistan. The annual time series regional analysis shows that rainfall deficit
(mm) and area (%) respond well to 12-SPI (Fig. 4.4). The threshold value for SPI and
area is -1 and 65% respectively. The correlation between deficits of rainfall to the area is
0.80, and SPI to a deficit of rainfall and area is -0.76 and -0.62 respectively. The same
results have been obtained for Sindh province where SPI is inversely proportional to a
deficit of mean rainfall and area (Adnan et al., 2015). The results show that maximum
area (100%) is affected most of the times during those years for which SPI is less than -1
and the regional rainfall deficit was above 50 mm (80%) as described by Wu et al.,
(2001). The maximum deficit in rainfall and area was reported during 1951–1953, 1969,
1971–1972 and 2000–2002.
Trend analysis was applied to monthly data of rainfall, maximum and minimum
temperature in extremely arid, arid, semi arid and humid regions during 1951–2014. The
monthly precipitation shows a decreasing trend in January, May, July and September; and
an increasing trend in the other months. The maximum temperature has an increasing
trend for all months except August, while the minimum temperature shows an increasing
trend throughout the year. Monthly and annual trend analysis was carried out on
precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature at the 95% significance level.
Precipitation shows no significant change, whereas the maximum temperature shows an
increasing trend of 0.028°C, 0.028°C, 0.026°C and 0.016°C during January, May,
November and December with the maximum in April (0.029°C). Similarly, minimum
temperature increases at the rate of 0.022°C, 0.025°C, 0.010°C, 0.021°C, 0.034°C,
0.033°C and 0.015°C, during April, May, June, September, October, November and
December, respectively (Table 4.4).
The annual analysis shows no significant increase in precipitation; however, a
significant increase (0.014 and 0.017°C) per year was observed for the maximum and
minimum temperature, respectively (Fig. 4.5). This increase in temperature may enhance
the evapotranspiration rate, which will reduce the ground moisture conditions, and
increase the risk of drought in extremely arid regions.
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(°C) in arid zones.
temperature (°C) in arid zones.
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The monthly precipitation shows a decreasing trend in January, March, July and
December, and an increasing trend for the other months. The maximum temperature
shows increasing trend in all months except February, March, August and September;
whereas minimum temperature shows an increasing trend throughout the year. Monthly
and annual trend analysis was carried out on precipitation, maximum and minimum
temperature at the 95% significance level. The precipitation shows no significant change,
except for June, where it was 0.14 mm. The maximum temperature shows an increasing
trend of 0.018°C, 0.024°C and 0.015°C during April, May and November respectively.
Significant increases in minimum temperature are observed; 0.013°C, 0.013°C, 0.020°C,
0.018°C, 0.027°C, 0.035°C, 0.015°C during January to June, and 0.011°C, 0.025°C,
0.030°C, 0.018°C during September to December, respectively (Table 4.5).
The annual analysis shows a significant increase in precipitation and minimum
temperature of 0.828 mm and 0.019°C per year, respectively. However, no significant
increase in maximum temperature was observed (Fig. 4.6). The increase in minimum
temperature may enhance the night temperature, which will reduce the diurnal variation
in arid regions. This increase may affect the evapotranspiration and respiration rate of
plants during the night; however, the significant increase in precipitation will be more
helpful to balance these processes.
The monthly precipitation shows a decreasing trend during January, March, May
and December, and an increasing trend for the other months. The maximum temperature
shows an increasing trend in January, March, April, May, October, November and
December; whereas minimum temperature shows an increasing trend during April, May
and November. The increase in precipitation was 0.31 mm during June at the 95%
significance level. The maximum temperature shows a significant increasing trend of
0.025°C and 0.027°C during April and May, respectively; but a decreasing trend of -
0.015°C during September. A significant decrease in minimum temperature was observed
of -0.021°C in June, -0.020°C in July, -0.025°C in August and -0.024°C in September
(Table 4.6).
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(°C) in semi-arid zones.
temperature (°C) in semi-arid zones.
104
(°C) in humid zones.
temperature (°C) in humid zones.
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Table 4.8 Seasonal trend analysis of precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum
temperature (°C) in agro-climatic zones.
The annual analysis shows an increase in precipitation and maximum temperature

in semi-arid regions, but it is not statistically significant at 95% level. The time series
graph also shows that precipitation and maximum temperature was normal to slightly
below normal in most of the years. The five-year moving average also shows increasing
trend in precipitation and decreasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature after
2002. However, a significant decrease of 0.007°C per year in minimum temperature was
observed (Fig. 4.7). The decrease in minimum temperature will be helpful to reduce the
evapotranspiration and water demands of crops in this region.
The monthly precipitation shows a decreasing trend during January, August,
October and December, and an increasing trend in the other months. The maximum
temperature shows an increasing trend throughout the year, except June. However, the
minimum temperature shows a decreasing trend for all the months except August and
September. The increase in precipitation at the 95% significance level is 1.10 mm and
0.85 mm per month per year during February and June, respectively. The maximum
temperature shows a significant increasing trend of 0.04°C in March, 0.034°C in April,
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0.033°C in May, 0.017°C in August, 0.023°C in November and 0.029°C in December.
Significant decreases in minimum temperature are observed: -0.016°C and -0.034°C for
January and June, respectively (Table 4.7). The annual analysis shows an increase in
precipitation and maximum temperature in humid regions, the latter being statistically
significant (0.018°C per year). However, a significant decrease of -0.007°C per year in
minimum temperature is also observed (Fig. 4.8). The significant increase in maximum
temperature may increase the diurnal variation range of temperature, which will enhance
evapotranspiration in this region.
The seasonal-based analysis of precipitation, maximum and minimum
temperature at the 95% significant level was performed in all agro-climatic zones of
Pakistan (Table 4.8). No significant increase or decrease in precipitation was observed in
all zones except for the arid zone, where precipitation significantly increases at a rate of
0.194 mm/season. The maximum temperature increased significantly by 0.013°C and
0.019°C in extremely arid zones, and 0.014°C and 0.025°C in arid, 0.021°C and 0.037°C
in the humid zone during winter and spring, respectively. Moreover, a significant
increase in maximum temperature is observed during summer and autumn (0.018°C and
0.020°C) in the extremely arid region. The maximum temperature has significantly
increased (0.012°C) and decreased (-0.054°C) during the monsoon season in the humid
and arid regions, respectively. The increase in minimum temperature is statistically
significant in the extremely arid and arid regions for all seasons, whereas in the semi-arid
and humid zones it decreases (-0.022°C and -0.018°C) during monsoon and summer,
respectively.
4.3.3 Evapotranspiration sensitivity in agro-climatic zones:
The impact of meteorological parameters on evapotranspiration is not easy to
predict. The probability of scenario for different seasons and the respective sensitivity of
evapotranspiration demands expected under such assumed futuristic meteorological
conditions are estimated in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan. The seasonal and
annual relative percentage change in ET due to the relative changes in temperature, vapor
pressure, radiations and wind speed in the extremely arid region is illustrated in Fig.
4.9(a-d).
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Fig. 4.9 Percentage change in meteorological parameters (a) temperature (b) net
radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in extremely arid region of Pakistan.
radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in arid region of Pakistan.
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The value of ET varies from –15.78% to +16.88% annually in response to ± 20%
change in temperature. The minimum effect of temperature is observed during spring
(-14.42 to +15.05) % and maximum during monsoon season (-16.80 to +18.17%). The
annual change in ET remains -12.09 to +12.03% due to the percentage change in net solar
radiation (± 20%). Moreover, maximum effect on ET (-13.21 to +13.25) % is observed in
autumn and minimum during summer (-11.22 to +11.24%) in extremely arid region. The
annual change in ET was ±10.8 % due to the percentage change in vapor pressure with
maximum change in winter (-13.0 to +13.2) % and minimum in spring (-9.1 to +9.3) %.
The change in wind speed by ±20% caused annual ET to change by -6.44 to 6.09%. A
maximum change in ET was experienced during summer (-7.04 to +6.66) % and the
minimum change in monsoon (-5.69 to +5.36) %.
The relative possible change in ET due to the change in meteorological
parameters was calculated for the arid region of Pakistan as shown in Fig. 4.10(a-d). The
value of ET varies from -13.98 to +14.65% annually in response to ± 20% change in
temperature. The temperature influences less during winter (-11.49 to +12.34) % as
compared to rest of the seasons because the winter season is relatively cold in arid region
and temperature tends to drop during winter months. The maximum change in ET is
observed during the monsoon season (-15.24 to +16.17%) as the temperature of arid
lands are high which favours extracting the soil moisture from the surface. The annual
change in ET is observed -12.46 to +12.48% due to the percentage change in net solar
radiation (± 20%). Moreover, the maximum effect on ET (-14.15 to +14.62) % is
observed in autumn and minimum during summer (-10.97 to +11.00%) in arid region.
The annual change in ET (±8.5%) is observed due to the percentage change in vapor
pressure with maximum change in winter (±10.2)% and minimum in autumn (-6.7 to
+7.1)%. The change in wind speed by ±20% caused annual ET to change by -6.01 to
+5.73%. The maximum change in ET is experienced during summer (-7.03 to +6.67) %
whereas the minimum change in autumn (-5.10 to +4.94) %. The maximum increase in
ET is due to the hot and dry climatology of arid regions where dry wind causes more ET
from the surface.
The seasonal and annual relative percentage change in ET due to the changes in
meteorological parameters in the semi-arid region of Pakistan is shown in Fig. 4.11(a-d).
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radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in semi-arid region of Pakistan.
radiations (c) vapor pressure (d) wind speed in humid region of Pakistan.
110
The value of ET varies from -12.92 to +13.56% annually in response to ± 20%
change in temperature. The temperature has less effect during winter (-10.67 to +11.66)
% as compared to rest of the seasons. The maximum change in ET is observed during the
monsoon season (-14.24 to +15.17) % as abundance of moisture is present and the
temperature of semi-arid lands which favours the evapotranspiration. The percentage
change in net solar radiation (± 20%) affects the annual ET by -13.50 to +13.53%,
whereas the maximum change in ET is observed in monsoon (-14.75 to + 14.66) % and
minimum during summer (-12.16 to +12.26) %. The result shows that net radiations have
significant effects in semi-arid regions as the vegetative cover, moisture convergence and
cloud cover help to enhance or reduce the ET (Claussen, 1997).
The annual change in ET due to change in vapor pressure lies between -5.6 to
+5.3 % a maximum change in winter (-10.3 to +10.1) % and minimum in summer (-2.8
to +2.6) %. The annual change in ET is observed -5.18 to +4.96 due to the change in
wind speed with maximum change in summer (-6.10 to +5.84)% and minimum in
monsoon (-4.06 to +3.91%).
Fig. 4.12 (a-d) illustrates seasonal and annual relative percentage change in ET
due to the relative changes in temperature, vapor pressure, net radiations and wind speed.
The value of ET is varied from -11.40 to +11.93% annually in responses to ± 20% change
in temperature. The temperature has less effect during winter (-9.44 to +10.11) % as
compared to rest of the seasons because the winter season is mostly cold and wet with
moisture content being very high. The maximum change in ET is observed during the
monsoon season (-12.44 to +13.29%) because of the highest concentration of moisture in
the soil. ET is less sensitive to decreased temperature in comparison to the increased
temperature that makes temperature a key triggering factor among the rest of parameters
irrespective of the seasons (Xu et al., 2006).
The annual change in net solar radiations (0 to ± 20%) has more effect on ET
(±16.37%) except for monsoon season (±18.02 %). The actual vapor pressure has an
inverse effect on ET which shows that increasing trends in vapor pressure decreases the
ET and vice verse. By changing the vapor pressure (0 to ±20%), the ET varies 2.1% to -
2.5% annually except for winter (5.8% to -6.2%) because of the high elevation of this
area. The percentage change in wind speed (±20%) has the minimum effect (-2.91 to
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+2.83%) on ET annually and the maximum effect (about -4.03 to +3.92%) in winter
because dry and cool winds cause more evapotranspiration from the surface as compared
to the rest of the seasons (Subramanya,2008).
The scenario is developed for four agro-climatic zones (extremely arid, arid,
semi-arid and humid) by a 10% increase in temperature with the possibility of ±10%
change in meteorological parameters (Table 4.9). The Evapotranspiration (ET) in
extremely arid zone ranges from 0.27% (-10% Rn, +10% ea, -10% U) to a maximum
29.93% (+10% Rn, -10% ea, +10% U) and it is shown in bold letters. The results show
that the total ET has increased by 0.27 % with the increase of wind speed and a decrease
in net radiations and vapor pressure by 10%. Moreover, the total ET increases by 9.23 %
with the increase in temperature by 10% and decrease the rest of the other parameters by
10%.
The minimum percentage change in evapotranspiration (ET) in arid zones was
observed -1.51% for one scenario (-10% Rn, +10% ea, -10% U) to a maximum change of
+25.95% for the other scenario (+10% Rn,-10% ea, +10% U). The results show that the
total ET was increased by -1.51% with the increase of wind speed and a decrease in net
radiations and vapor pressure by 10%. Moreover, the total ET increases by 5.56% with
the increase in temperature by 10% and decrease the rest of the other parameters by 10%.
The minimum percentage change in evapotranspiration (ET) for semi-arid zone
was observed -2.71% for one scenario (-10% Rn, +10% ea, -10% U) to a maximum
change of +24.68% for the other scenario (+10% Rn,-10% ea, +10% U). The results show
that the total ET has reduced by -2.71% with the increase of wind speed and a decrease in
net radiations and vapor pressure by 10%. Moreover, the total ET increases by 4.19%
with the increase in temperature by 10% and decrease the rest of the other parameters by
10%. The increase in vapor pressure by 10% over normal with 10% decrease in net
radiations and wind speed results in the reduction of total ET by -4.44% in humid region
whereas the decrease in vapor pressure 10% and increase in the other parameters by 10%
result an increase in total ET (21.76%).
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Table 4.9 Annual changes in total estimated evapotranspiration with respect to change in
meteorological parameters in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan.
Based on the seasonal and annual analysis, the sensitivity of ET for temperature,
solar radiations, vapor pressure and wind speed have been calculated in extremely arid,
arid, semi-arid and humid regions. The results show that the maximum change in ET was
observed in monsoon and minimum change in winter season due to change in
temperature in all the climate zones of Pakistan. The temperature is the main triggering
factor which enhances the ET rate regardless the season. The maximum change in ET
during monsoon depicts that abundant of moisture is available which goes into the
atmosphere during the process of evapotranspiration. Similarly, the maximum change in
ET was observed in extremely arid and arid region during autumn and semi-arid and
humid region during monsoon. Furthermore, the maximum change in ET was observed
due to the winter vapor pressure and summer wind speed in all the climatic zones except
the humid region where wind speed causes a maximum change in ET during winter
respectively.
This study was focused on determining shifting of agro-climatic zones of Pakistan
during 1951–2010. Furthermore, the drought vulnerability was also accessed in different
agro-climatic zones, and historical drought events were identified. Based on monthly,
seasonal and annual data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, trends
and their magnitude are calculated at the 95% significance level using the MK-test and
Sen’s slope method, respectively. By considering the climatic normal of 1981–2010, the
study has revealed that 51% of the area lies between extremely arid to arid, 31% to semi-
arid and 18% to a humid climate. The long-term data analysis (1951–2010) shows a
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maximum decrease of 8% and an increase of 5% in extremely arid and humid zones,
respectively. The southern parts of Pakistan lie between the extremely arid to arid zones,
and the frequency and intensity of drought in these zones are greater, making them more
vulnerable to drought. The historical analysis (12-months SPI) identified five years (viz.
1952, 1969, 2000, 2001, and 2002) in which drought was observed in all agro-climatic
zones. However, the drought intensity varies in each zone. The droughts of 2002, 1969,
1971 and 1960 were the most severe observed in the extremely arid, arid, semi-arid and
humid zones, respectively.
The vulnerability of the semi-arid region is more due to meteorological,
agricultural and hydrological drought compared to the other zones. Monthly, seasonal
and annual time series analysis of precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature at
the 95% significance level were performed. The month of June showed a significant
increase in precipitation in the arid, semi-arid and humid zones. The maximum
temperature increased significantly during April and May in all zones. The minimum
temperature increased in the extremely arid and arid zones and decreased in the semi-arid
and humid zones. The seasonal analysis shows a significant increase of precipitation in
summer in the arid zone. The maximum temperature significantly increases in all seasons
and in all regions, except for the arid zone during monsoon, where it decreases. The
minimum temperature decreases in the semi-arid and humid zones during summer and
monsoon, but it increases in the other zones. The annual analysis shows a significant
increase in precipitation by 0.83mm/year in the arid zone. The annual maximum
temperature increases at a rate of 0.014°C/year and 0.018°C/year in the extremely arid
and humid zones, respectively. The annual minimum temperatures increased at a rate of
0.017°C/year and 0.019°C/year in the extremely arid and arid zones, and decreased by
0.007°C/year in the semi-arid and humid zones, respectively. This increase in
temperature and decrease in precipitation may put pressure on water demands for the
agricultural and socio-economic sectors of these zones; the frequency and intensity of
drought may increase in future.
The results of this study also describe and quantify the impact on ET by changing
the meteorological parameters in the study area in the light of climate change in both
season-wise and annually. Clearly, both temperature and vapor pressure are the most
114
important factors that affect ET. The temperature, wind speed and solar radiations are
directly proportional to ET but the vapor pressure is inversely proportional to ET. The
maximum change in ET for temperature and vapors pressure in all the agro-climatic
zones of Pakistan has been observed during monsoon and winter season respectively.
Moreover, the maximum change in ET due to net radiations in extremely arid and arid
region in autumn, and semi-arid and humid region in monsoon whereas the maximum
change in ET for wind speed during summer for extremely arid and arid region and
winter for the semi-arid and humid region.
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Chapter 5
Conclusions and future work
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5.1 Conclusions:
The dissertation focuses on the spatio-temporal drought distribution and its
characteristic over Pakistan and the surrounding region. Furthermore, this study
thoroughly investigated the drought and precipitation climatologies, frequencies over
SCA region with special focus to Pakistan. The study identifies best drought indices to
monitor the drought conditions in the country. The frequency and category of drought in
each of the districts of Pakistan have been determined to prepare drought hazard map of
Pakistan. The shifting of agro-climatic zones and their vulnerability towards drought has
been investigated. The impact of different meteorological parameters in these agro zones
and their scenarios has been discussed, and lastly, the spatial and temporal trends of
temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration in different provinces of Pakistan have
been identified on monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Based on different meteorological
data and analyses the following conclusions are drawn:
In the first part of the thesis, precipitation and drought climatologies and their
trends have been investigated over SCA region including Pakistan by using data of 1951-
2010. To determine the trend, magnitude trend, randomness and linearity, five statistical
tests have been used at different significance levels. The precipitation correlation of
GPCC and station data has been determined both spatially and temporally which
identifies a high value (R2= 0.93) for Pakistan. Based on the precipitation climatologies,
the entire SCA region has been grouped into six zones using PCA. These results helped
to identify that the zones A-1 and A-4 are affected by the monsoon, whereas A-2, A-3
and A-5 are influenced by the western disturbances. Moreover, A-6 region and Pakistan
receive rainfall both in summer and winter due to the two weather systems. The results
showed that 1971 and 2000-2002 were the main drought period whereas 2001 was the
most severe drought year in the whole SCA region. The drought of 1952 was the most
severe in Pakistan while 2000-2002 was the longest drought period in the region. The A-
5 region is most vulnerable to drought. The A-3 and A-5 regions showed an increasing
trend in September and June, whereas A-4 region showed decreasing trend during
January and August. Based on the annual analysis, significant increase in precipitation
has been observed over A-5 region and Pakistan and decreasing in A-4 region.
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The results of the study illustrated the climatic change trend of meteorological
parameters on the provincial level. The significant increase in temperature (maximum,
minimum) and ET has been observed both seasonally as well as annually. Rising
temperature and ET in northern regions of Pakistan may trigger the melting phenomena
of snow and glacier along with the Glacier Lake outburst flood (GLOF) event which
would increase the river runoff while the reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature
and ET in southern Pakistan may increase the probability of water shortage and provide a
favorable conditions for onset of drought. The past data of 64 years depicts that
maximum seasonal change in temperature and ET was observed in Balochistan province.
Based on seasonal analysis, significant rainfall increase has been observed in summer
(0.375mm), maximum temperatures increase in winter (0.011°C), and autumn (0.014°C),
and the decreases in minimum temperatures were found during summer (-0.008°C) and
monsoon (-0.013°C) over Pakistan.
Comparison of 15 drought indices has been made to identify and monitor the
drought in Pakistan. The data of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture have been
used to calculate these indices. The performance of these indices was tested by using 15
different statistical methods. The precipitation data was used to verify the performance of
SPI, MCZI, Z-score, CZI, WASPI and RVI. The analysis showed that all these indices
provide the same results corresponding to each other. The high variability (negative
value) in the indices (SPTI, SSMAI and Sc-PDSI) has been observed, while CI shows
slight variation. The deciles index responded well to the sensitivity of drought, whereas
PAWD and PCN did not capture the intensity of drought. Based on statistical analysis,
the results depict that SPEI and RDI are the best drought indices to monitor drought.
Furthermore, the evapotranspiration and precipitation data were used to calculate these
two indices that make possible to identify more realistic information about drought. The
drought characterization and its assessment over Pakistan have been identified by using
over 145 districts of Pakistan, by using the long-term data (1951-2010) of SPI, soil
moisture, and rainfall departure. The results showed a strong relationship between rainfall
data of GPCC and meteorological station of Pakistan for both annual and monsoon
season. The percent of normal for each of the district has been identified to determine the
dependency of weather systems. This showed that Sindh province is highly dependent on
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monsoon rainfall. Furthermore, the comparison has been made among 12-SPI, the
departure of soil moisture and rainfall for each of the districts, and all these showed a
good performance to monitor drought. The analysis showed that rainfall and soil moisture
departure are good tools to monitor drought in a region. The significant trend analysis of
precipitation has been conducted over 145 districts of the country. The results showed a
significant increase over 13 districts of Punjab, 6 of KP and FATA, 4 of GB and single
district of Balochistan, whereas decrease has been observed in a single district of AJK. It
is concluded that severity of drought cannot be assessed over a small timescale of SPI.
Six most severe historical droughts were experienced during 1952, 1969, 1971, 2000,
2001 and 2002 in Pakistan. Southern Pakistan is more sensitive to drought as compared
to northern parts. The newly developed hazard index identified 19 districts in southern
parts of Pakistan are extremely vulnerable to drought.
Shifting of agro-climatic zones and their vulnerabilities to drought has been
assessed by using the observed long-term data (1951-2010). The trend and its magnitude
have been tested on monthly, seasonal and annual time scale by using the data of rainfall
and temperature (maximum and minimum) at the 95% significance level. The results
(1981-2010) reveal that 51% of the area lies in extremely arid to arid, 31% semi-arid and
18% humid climate. Furthermore, the area of extremely arid climate has decreased by 8%
and humid area increased by 5%. The climate of southern Pakistan is mostly arid to
extremely arid. Therefore, there is a high probability of drought in these regions. Six
worst historical droughts were experienced in all the country during 1952, 1969, 1971,
2000, 2001, and 2002, but their intensity varied in each zone. The drought in 2002
occurred in extremely arid, 1969 in arid, 1971 in semi-arid and 1960 in humid regions.
The semi-arid region is more sensitive to all types of drought i.e. meteorological,
agricultural and hydrological drought. Monthly, seasonal and annual analysis has been
performed on rainfall and precipitation data. The annual analysis showed a significant
increase in precipitation in arid zone (0.83mmyr-1), while the maximum temperatures in
extremely arid and humid zones are increasing at the rate of 0.014°Cyr-1 and 0.018°Cyr-1
respectively. Moreover, the annual increase in mean minimum temperature has been
observed in the extremely arid (0.017°Cyr-1) and arid (0.019°Cyr-1) zones, and decreasing
in semi-arid and humid zones at the rate of 0.007°Cyr-1. The temperature increase may
119
enhance ET which would change the water balance conditions in these agro-climatic
zones such change would potentially put further pressure on agriculture and water sector
and ultimately may enhance the frequency and intensity of drought in the future.
The impacts of meteorological parameters on the sensitivity of ET have been
analyzed both on seasonal and annual basis. The results showed that temperature and
vapor pressure are the key factors that strongly influence ET. The ET increases with
increase in temperature, wind speed, and solar radiations, and decreases with vapor
pressure. The seasonal analysis depicted maximum variability in ET has been observed
during monsoon and winter season, due to the change in temperature and vapor pressure
respectively. Similarly, the maximum change in ET due to net radiation has been
observed in extremely arid and arid region during autumn; and in semi-arid and humid
region during monsoon. The maximum change in ET due to wind speed has been
observed in extremely arid and arid region during summer and in the semi-arid and
humid regions during winter. The drought and flood risk are higher in extremely arid and
humid zones respectively. This study will help to estimate the crop water requirements
and irrigation schedule by using the ET data in the light of IPCC, 2014 report in the
context of global warming in the 21st Century.
5.2 Future work:
The identification of drought onset has always been a crucial problem for
researchers and national meteorological and hydrological departments around the world.
The precipitation uncertainty makes it more difficult to predict. This dissertation
identified the drought climatology, frequency, trends and hazard mapping using different
drought indices over SCA region including Pakistan. However, some of the problems
need to be investigated further for timely drought prediction and forecast.
1. A broad study on the role of global tele-connection (Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD),
El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic
Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Antarctic Oscillation
(AAO), etc) on drought should be investigated in Pakistan and surrounding
regions. This study may help to understand the dynamics, causes and onset of
drought.
120
2. The monsoon and western disturbances precipitation play a major role to lessen
the moisture stress in different parts of the country. The abnormality in both
systems may lead to climate extreme of floods or drought in the country.
Therefore, a comprehensive study is needed to determine the reasons for early or
delayed weather systems in Pakistan.
3. The data of global climate model CMIP5 may be used to identify future climate
projections of drought under different scenarios and shifting of agro-climatic
zones in the 21st century. Moreover, spatial and temporal trends of precipitation
and temperature can be investigated using RCP’s data in different agro-climatic
zones of Pakistan.
4. Being an agrarian economy, a detailed study on seasonal drought, crop water
requirement and irrigation schedule may be conducted for near, mid and far future
in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan. This study may help the farmers,
planner and agriculture community to design their activity according to the future
requirement.
121
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List of Publications:
1. Adnan S, Ullah K, Shuanglin L, GAO S, Khan AH, Mahmood R. 2017. Comparison of
various drought indices to monitor drought status in Pakistan. Climate Dynamics, 1-15. (IF:
4.146)
2. Adnan S, Ullah K, Khan AH, GAO S. 2017. Meteorological Impacts on Evapotranspiration

in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan. Journal of Arid Land 9: 938-952. (IF: 1.79)
3. Adnan S, Ullah K, GAO S, Khosa AH, Wang Z. 2017. Shifting of agro-climatic zones, their
drought vulnerability, and precipitation and temperature trends in Pakistan. International
Journal of Climatology 37: 529-543. (IF: 3.76)
4. Adnan S, Ullah K, GAO S. 2016. Investigations into Precipitation and Drought

Climatologies in South Central Asia with Special Focus on Pakistan over the Period
1951–2010. Journal of Climate 29: 6019-6035. (IF: 4.7)
5. Adnan S, Ullah K, GAO S. 2015. Characterization of drought and its assessment

over Sindh, Pakistan during 1951–2010. Journal of Meteorological Research 29:
837-857. (IF: 1.116)
6. Adnan S, Ullah K, Mahmood R, Zhou Y, Wang Z, Zuo Q. 2018. The Long-term

trends of temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and frequency of drought
events in different regions of Pakistan, Journal of Hydrology (under review). MS#
HYDROL27899. (IF: 3.483)
7. Adnan S, Ullah K, Ahmed R. 2018. Meteorological Parameters Variability and

their impact on Evapotranspiration in Humid Zone of Pakistan. Meteorological
Application, (under review). MS#MET-18-0069. (IF: 1.62)
8. Adnan S, Ullah K, Umar M. 2018. Development of drought hazard index for

vulnerability assessment in Pakistan. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological
Society, (under review). MS# QJ-18-0123. (IF: 3.44)
9. Drought Hazard Map data is used by NDMA and WFP to develop report “Integrated
Context Analysis (ICA) on Vulnerability to Food Security and National Hazards”
available on
http://vam.wfp.org.pk/Publication/Integrated_Context_Analysis_Pakistan_2017.pdf.
141
10. Adnan S, Ullah K, GAO S. 2016. Drought Assessment Dataset over Sindh Province,
Pakistan (1951–2010) (Drought Assessment Sindh Pakistan_1951 -2010) [DB/OL].
Global Change Research Data Publishing & Repository. Doi: 10.3974/geodb.2016.03
.14.V1.
Other collaborative research during PhD:
1. Sajid G, Hussain I, Shad MY, Faisal M, Shoukry AM, Adnan S. 2018.

Nonparametric Trend Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration for Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. International Journal of Global Warming 14: 313-329. (IF:
1.286)
2. Durrani IH, Adnan S, Ahmad M, Khair SM, Kakar E. 2017. Observed long-
term climatic variability and its Impacts on the Ground Water Level of Quetta
Alluvial. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology 1-12. (IF: 0.595)
3. Hanif M, Khan AH, & Adnan S. 2013. Latitudinal precipitation characteristics and
trends in Pakistan. Journal of hydrology 492: 266-272. (IF: 2.74)
4. Adnan, S., Khan, A. H., Haider, S., & Mahmood, R. (2012). Solar energy potential
in Pakistan. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 4(3), 032701. (IF: 1.75)
5. Haider, S., & Adnan, S. (2014). Classification and assessment of aridity over
Pakistan provinces (1960-2009). International Journal of Environment 3: 24-35.
6. Khan, A. H., Tariq, S., Qaiser, G. Adnan, S. (2017). Drought Prediction for arid
region of Pakistan using Ensemble Multi Model Technique. Theoretical and Applied
Climatology Journal (under review) (IF: 2.64)
7. Watto, F., Adnan, S., Latif, M. (2018). Impacts of Jet Stream on Dynamics of
Western Disturbances over Pakistan. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (under
review). (IF: 1.156)
8. Ahmed, R., Latif, M. Adnan, S., Abuzar, M.K. (2018). Thunderstorm Frequency
Distribution and Associated Convective Mechanisms over Pakistan. Theoretical and
Applied Climatology (under review). (IF: 2.64)
9. Naheed, G., Adnan, S. (2018). Projection for Water Requirement of Cotton crop in
Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology (under review).
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Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought and its

Characteristics over Pakistan

COMSATS University Islamabad

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought and its

COMSATS University Islamabad

of the requirement for the degree of

A Post Graduate Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology as partial

Name Registration Number

Shahzadha Adnan CIIT/SP12-PME-002/ISB

Dr. Kalim Ullah

Tenured Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology

COMSATS University Islamabad

Finally, I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to uncles, aunts and my

“This journey is successfully completed because of you.”

Chapter 5 ....................................................................................................................... 116

Figure 2.1 Topographical map of SCA region elevation (meters)………..………….. 13

Figure 3.25 Drought hazard map of Pakistan………………………………………….. 82

Figure 4.1 Precipitation and temperature (maximum and minimum) climatology

Table 2.1 Classification of drought based on deciles index…………………............... 14

Chapter 1: An introduction of the present work followed by the scientific background,

Chapter 2: Investigation of drought and precipitation climatology in South Central Asia

2.2 Data and methods:

2.2.1 Rainfall variability index (RVI):

According to Gocic and Trajkovic (2013b), rainfall variability index ( is

2.2.2 Deciles index:

Table 2.1 Classification of drought based on deciles index.

2.2.3 Standardized precipitation index (SPI):

Mckee et al. (1993, 1995) developed SPI to quantify precipitation deficit on

The value of Z is approximately normally distributed and positive value of Z

Where and are the data values at times and ( , respectively.

Where rs represents Spearman correlation coefficient, D is the difference between

2.3 Results and discussions:

2.3.1 Analysis of precipitation:

Fig. 2.6 Time series of percent of rainfall in the SCA region.

Fig. 2.11 Time series of 12-SPI at different zones.

Fig. 2.12 Drought distribution (%) in SCA regions during 1951-2010.

Table 2.4 Statistical parameters of monthly precipitation of SCA regions (1951-2010).

The summary of statistical parameters of monthly precipitation during 1951-2010

The annual trend of precipitation obtained by five statistical methods is given in

2.3.3 Trend analysis:

The long-term data (1951-2015) of precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum

observed at Bhawalnagar, DI Khan, Faisalabad, Gilgit, Jacobabad, Mianwali, Multan,

The long-term data (1951-2015) of precipitation, evapotranspiration, maximum

2.2.3.2 Seasonal analysis:

The maximum increase in maximum and minimum temperature was observed in

3.1.1 Study area:

3.2 Data and methods:

Where j is the current month, Cs is coefficient of skewness, n is the total

Here, P is the precipitation, and PE is the potential evapotranspiration on

Where xi is the precipitation of ith month, and ̅ is the normal precipitation.

Where ETo represents evapotranspiration (mmday-1); ∆ = saturated vapor pressure

Where - ln ( for , Q is the probability of exceedance = - ( if ,

3.6.2 Statistical analysis:

Two seasonal rainfall systems (monsoon and western disturbances) approach

3.6.4.2 Correlation analysis

3.6.4.3 Drought frequency analysis

3.6.4.4 Severe droughts in Pakistan

3.6.4.5 Drought hazard index

Where Td = total number of drought; Ty = total number of year; SIndex= seasonal

Fig. 3.24 Categories and intensity of drought in 145 districts of Pakistan.

Fig. 3.25 Drought hazard map of Pakistan.

4.2 Data and methods: