University of Puerto Rico

Medical Science Campus

School of Public Health

TEST 3 - Statistical Inference

Name: Date:

1. A study was performed among 169,871 Chinese men and women in

1991 ages 40 years and older. Baseline data were collected in 1991,
and a follow-up exam was conducted in 1999-2000. One component
of the follow-up exam was a mortality follow-up for subjects who
died between 1991 and 1999, where the date and cause of death were
determined from Chinese vital statistics data. Of particular interest
were risk factors for death from chronic-obstructive pulmonary disease
(COPD), A Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to
relate risk factors in 1991 to time of death from COPD between 1991
and 1999-2000.

(a) Write down the Cox proportional-hazards model. What does the
term proportional hazards mean? (20 points)
(b) The results in Table ?? were obtained from the study. What
is the hazard ratio for COPD mortality among men for smokers
of ≥ 20 pack-years vs. never smokers? Provide a 95% CI. (20
points)
(c) Most risk factors seem of comparable magnitude for men and
women. However, one exception is cigarette smoking. Test the
hypothesis that the hazard ratio for smoking ≥ 20 pack-years vs.
never smoking is significantly different (at the 5% level) for men
vs. women. (Hint: Use a z statistic approach, considering the
men and women as 2 independent samples.) (20 points)

2. The data presented in Table ?? represent the time (in days) until the
death of patients with ovarian cancer treated at a given clinic. The +
symbol indicates censorship.

(a) Obtain the Kaplan-Meier estimates for the survival functions of

both groups and display them on the same graph. (20 points)
(b) Using the confidence intervals of the Kaplan-Meier estimates, test
the hypothesis of equality of survival functions of the two groups
at t = 6 months and 15 months. (20 points)

1
Table 1: Risk factors for COPD death among 169,871 study participants,
China, 1991-2000
Men Women
Baseline
β se β se
risk factor
Age, 10 years 1.030 0.031 0.997 0.034
Alcohol consumption -0.174 0.064 0.365 0.153
(at least 12 times in past year)
Cigarette smoking
1-19 pack-years -0.062 0.091 0.300 0.109
≥ 20 pack-years 0.166 0.067 0.571 0.100
Hypertension 0.049 0.063 0.058 0.069
No high school education 0.863 0.110 0.904 0.202
Physical inactivity 0.451 0.082 0.300 0.073
Underweight (BMI ¡18.5) 0.978 0.065 0.956 0.073
Living in Northern China 0.329 0.062 0.548 0.073
Living in rural China 0.761 0.071 0.582 0.074

Table 2: Times of patients in ovarian cancer study

Samples
Large Tumor Small Tumor
28 709+ 34 358
89 744+ 88 369
175 770+ 137 369
195 1106 199 370
309 1206+ 280 375
377+ 291 382
393+ 299+ 392
421+ 300 429+
447+ 309 451
462 351 1119+