Ocean & Coastal Management 145 (2017) 44e51

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Ocean & Coastal Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ocecoaman

Review

The ‘responsiveness gap’ in RFMOs: The critical role of decision-

making policies in the fisheries management response to climate
change
Brian Pentz a, *, Nicole Klenk a, b
a
Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, 1265 Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario, M1C 1A4, Canada
b
Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, 1265 Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario, M1C 1A4, Canada

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The impacts of climate change, owing to their potentially vast reach and scale, embody a critical chal-
Received 21 October 2016 lenge for fisheries management organizations. We conduct a systematic literature review to present an
Received in revised form overview of how the peer-reviewed academic literature recommends fisheries management frameworks
19 May 2017
should respond to the climate change-driven uncertainty, vulnerability and risk facing resource bases.
Accepted 20 May 2017
Available online 25 May 2017
Our review identifies 21 different potential management responses. Adaptive management was the most
commonly identified strategy, with institutional capacity development and input/output controls also
frequently cited. We contrast our findings with illustrative cases characterizing management practice
Keywords:
Fisheries management
and outcomes in RFMOs, and argue that the ability of RFMOs to implement the climate change mitigation
RFMOs strategies identified in our review is a function of an organization's decision-making rules. We argue that
Climate change consensus-based decision-making policies limit adaptiveness, and that a ‘responsiveness gap’ exists
Decision-making between consensus and majority-based decision-making frameworks. This gap will become more
Adaptive management evident, and increase in importance, as the impacts of climate change shift from potential to kinetic.
Considering that decision-making rules in RFMOs are unlikely to change, we argue that increased
analytical effort concentrated on institutional contexts and member state interest complexes may pro-
mote adaptive management, expediting the pace at which scientific recommendations and findings
inform policy and practise in RFMOs.
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2. Materials and methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
4. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.1. Recommendations to manage climate-driven risk, uncertainty and vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.2. The ‘responsiveness gap’ between majority- and consensus-based decision-making policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4.3. The ‘responsiveness gap’ in practise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.4. Implications for policy and practise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Supplementary data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

1. Introduction
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: brian.pentz@mail.utoronto.ca (B. Pentz), nicole.klenk@ Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from
utoronto.ca (N. Klenk). anthropogenic emissions will influence abiotic characteristics of

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.05.007
0964-5691/© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 B. Pentz, N. Klenk / Ocean & Coastal Management 145 (2017) 44e51
the marine environment in coming decades (Hoegh-Guldberg and
Bruno, 2010). Shifting ocean temperatures and increased acidity are
commonly identified as important manifestations of climate
change, as these characteristics directly influence biological com-
ponents of the marine environment (Walther et al., 2002; Roessig
et al., 2004; Perry et al., 2005; Hays et al., 2005; Harley et al.,
2006; Occhipinti-Ambrogi, 2007; Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno,
2010). Impacts from climate change have been identified, theorized
or projected at the individual (Pankhurst and Munday, 2011),
population (MacKenzie et al., 2012), community (Suikkanen et al.,
2013) and ecosystem levels (Doney et al., 2012), raising concerns
over ecosystem stability (Brose et al., 2012) and production of
marine goods and services (Blanchard et al., 2012). Species range
shifts (Perry et al., 2005; Engelhard et al., 2014), and increased
uncertainty over resource statuses (Howell et al., 2013), have also
been identified as repercussions of climate change. Considering
that marine fisheries are critical sources of income and protein
around the world (McClanahan et al., 2015), that they been subject
to overcapacity in the global fleet (Arnason et al., 2009), and that
many commercial stocks are overexploited (Pitcher and Cheung,
2013; FAO, 2016), fisheries management organizations must
effectively respond to climate-driven resource concerns if resource
statuses are to be maintained or improved.
Concern over the sustainability of marine living resources ex-
tends to the high seas (White and Costello, 2014). Defined by the
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as the
area outside the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs)
afforded to coastal states, the high seas represent approximately
15% of global fisheries landings (Sumaila et al., 2015). States inter-
ested in high seas marine living resources, if party to UNCLOS, are
required to cooperate with other states interested in resource
exploitation to ensure that high seas resources are conserved and
exploited sustainably.
Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) are the
formal organizations enabling and coordinating this cooperation
outside of domestic EEZs. Management of high seas resources is
complicated by several factors, including resource remoteness and
problems associated with the management of common-pool re-
sources. For example, states may carry out unauthorized exploita-
tion in the convention areas of RFMOs they are not members of,
with little recourse available to RFMOs (e.g. NAFO, 1981). Relatedly,
since RFMO membership is open to any state interested in
exploiting marine living resources in the organization's convention
area, RFMOs must have the ability to accept new members and
establish terms for their sustainable exploitation of resources
(Miller, 2007). Further complicating management, RFMO member
states may have positions or interests that contradict or oppose the
stances and interests of other member states (Brooks, 2013).
Opposing resource management stances can easily complicate
management reform, particularly when RFMOs employ consensus-
Fig. 1. Keywords used in the literature search process.
45
based decision-making rules. Solutions to these issues are not
readily apparent or easily applied, and inherently characterize
fisheries management at the regional level. These challenges
partially explain why RFMOs have not always achieved their goals
of conservation and optimal use (Cullis-Suzuki and Pauly, 2010;
Gjerde et al., 2013).
Climate change also creates substantial problems for RFMOs. In
addition to the projected impacts noted above, the precise impact
of climate change on the marine environment is uncertain, with
this uncertainty creating risk and heightening vulnerability of
resource bases (Miller et al., 2010), many of which are already
overexploited (Pitcher and Cheung, 2013). This uncertainty,
vulnerability and risk must be effectively mitigated by RFMO
management frameworks for resource stability to be ensured.
Combined, the projected impacts of climate change on marine
resources, and the governance challenges associated with high seas
fisheries management create a challenging management environ-
ment. We attempt to understand how these complicating factors
overlap by gathering the literature identifying the strategies and
approaches available to fisheries management frameworks to
respond to the challenges created by a changing climate, and then
reviewing key results for their implications for RFMOs. Our study
contributes four main insights: the study (1) serves to broadly
characterize the ongoing discussion of the fisheries management
response to climate change, and (2) promotes discussion on the
utility of the predominantly suggested approaches to risk, uncer-
tainty and vulnerability management in fisheries governance dur-
ing climate change. Furthermore, we (3) identify sources and
instances of friction between ideal management contexts (as
indicated by our review) and those employed at the regional level
to demonstrate that the potential solutions to the impacts of
climate change may face previously unexamined barriers. Finally,
we (4) forward an alternative approach to improve policy uptake in
RFMOs that make decisions by consensus.
Substantial research has investigated how fisheries manage-
ment organizations should prepare for, and respond, to the chal-
lenges presented by climate change. While a variety of
management options have been forwarded, their uptake has been
heterogeneous, with reformative measures often applied pro-
tractedly. The insights of this study, and subsequent recommen-
dations, will help move the discussion of fisheries management
solutions to climate change challenges towards pragmatic, adaptive
frameworks that improve the likelihood that RFMOs achieve their
goals of conservation and optimal use.
2. Materials and methods
We conducted a literature search by using the multidisciplinary
search engines ‘Web of Science’ and ‘Scopus’. We used three levels
of search filtering (Fig. 1), to return literature focusing on
46 B. Pentz, N. Klenk / Ocean & Coastal Management 145 (2017) 44e51
Box 1
Additional screening criteria for literature review.
a. marine-based
b. commercial fisheries
c. peer-reviewed
d. ‘fisheries-centric’/viable management discussion
uncertainty, vulnerability and risk resulting from climate change.
We did not include the phrase ‘RFMO’ as a higher-level filter, as we
sought to include management articles focusing on domestic
management and articles whose analyses were independent of
scale. Synonyms and closely related phrases were included in the
search process to avoid synonym-related exclusion; these key-
words are noted in parentheses (Fig. 1). We did not use additional
filters (i.e. year of publication) in the search engine interfaces.
We screened the articles returned by these searches against four
further criteria to ensure their relevance. The additional screening
criteria are provided in Box 1. We provide the rationale for the
additional filters below.
As this study is concerned with marine fisheries exclusively, we
screened out literature focusing on freshwater issues. Furthermore,
this study strives to understand the (suggested) climate change
response in commercial fisheries management. Therefore, we also
screened out articles pertaining to recreational and subsistence
fisheries. We also eliminated sources that were not peer-reviewed
from consideration, and finally, we removed articles that were not
‘fisheries management-centric’ from the literature sample. We
included this screening criterion to filter out results that were only
tangentially related to fisheries management, or that primarily
concerned themselves with adjacent fields such as conservation or
community management/adaptation. Such articles were reviewed
for relevance, and were included if they contained in-depth dis-
cussion or analysis related to commercial fisheries management in
the context of climate change.
Once identified as relevant, we reviewed the articles by looking
for arguments or recommendations on how management frame-
works could respond to the risk facing fisheries as a result of
climate change. Recommendations were coded inductively; new
Fig. 2. Suggested management responses identified in the literature review process. Suggestions regarding the governance system are marked in black; suggestions regarding
specific governance measures are marked in grey.
categories were added when warranted. We reviewed the articles
comprising the literature set twice to ensure recommendations
were accurately identified and classified.
3. Results
Our literature review process produced 256 articles through the
‘Web of Science’ search, and 204 articles through the ‘Scopus’
search. After applying the additional screening criteria, we identi-
fied a total of 60 articles as relevant to the study. We list relevant
articles in Appendix 1.
Through our article reviews, we identified 171 total recom-
mendations across the 60 articles. Many of the articles provided
suggestions for reform at both the governance system and mea-
sures level (see below), and many offered multiple recommenda-
tions. However, two of the articles (Axelrod (2011) and Tiller and
Nyman (2015)), which examined issues related to the governance
and political context of high seas fisheries, made no discernable
recommendation for reform. Nevertheless, these articles are
included in the literature set as they fit the study's criteria.
We summarize our findings in Fig. 2, and delineate the results
into two broad categories: suggestions that target the governance
system (i.e. the rules, approaches, and strategies of a fisheries
management institution), and suggestions concerned with opera-
tional measures (i.e. specific, applied practices). This delineation,
both mutually-exclusive and fully encompassing, is inspired by
Miller et al. (2010) assertion that policy reform can take place at
either of these two levels.
Our analysis identified 21 different categories, or types, of po-
tential fisheries management responses to the climate-driven risk,
uncertainty and vulnerability facing resource bases. The 21
different categories are difficult to characterize broadly, owing to
the multidisciplinary nature of the fisheries management discipline
and the complex socioecological systems which fisheries
constitute.
Seven of the categories of recommendations we identified
recommend reform of the ‘governance system’. Of these categories,
we identified ‘adaptive management’ (23 times), and ‘institutional
capacity development’ (20) most frequently. Adaptive management
promotes an iterative and reflexive, learning-by-doing approach to
resource management decisions (Holling, 1978). This type of
 B. Pentz, N. Klenk / Ocean & Coastal Management 145 (2017) 44e51
management implies progressive, forward thinking action and
management strategies based on empirical observations and
experimentation. In broader terms, institutional capacity develop-
ment refers to mandate strengthening, or an expansion of man-
agement frameworks.
Additionally, we identified 10 articles recommending the
ecosystem approach, and eight articles identifying the precau-
tionary approach to fisheries management as appropriate man-
agement responses. The prevalence of recommendations focusing
on these approaches is unsurprising given their inclusion in the
United Nations Fish Stock Agreement (Article 5, Article 6) and the
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Code of
Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (Article 7.5).
We identified 14 categories of governance measures in the
literature set. Input and output controls (i.e. effort and quota con-
trols, 21 times) and marine protected areas (MPAs, 14 times) were
the measures most commonly suggested in the literature. Scientific
uncertainty was often targeted by the literature set (via model
improvements (10 times), environmental indexing (seven times),
management strategy evaluation (four times)), and issues related to
harvester activity (gear regulations (10 times), monitoring (seven
times)) were commonly forwarded as well. We also identified so-
lutions originating in environmental sociology (stakeholder
engagement, one time), and economic theory (reduction of sub-
sidies, one time).
4. Discussion
4.1. Recommendations to manage climate-driven risk, uncertainty
and vulnerability
While the various options for reform identified in our review are
presented in Fig. 2 individually, and as discrete, non-overlapping
options, 39 articles included in our review identify more than one
type of management reform to address the uncertainty, vulnera-
bility, and risk associated with climate change. This suggests that
fisheries management organizations should tailor their frame-
works to address climate-driven uncertainty, vulnerability, and risk
by pursuing multiple approaches to improve the likelihood of
management success.
Our results indicate that adaptive management has assumed a
central role in contemporary fisheries management theory for its
potential to mitigate the effects of climate change. Institutional
capacity development was also commonly identified, with 10 ar-
ticles recommending the application of both types of reform.
Therefore, if management frameworks are designed around adap-
tive principles, and combined with the (oft-recommended) devel-
opment and expansion of institutional capacity, the potential for
resource sustainability to be achieved could be increased. Yet, how
decision-making rules constrain institutional capacity building in
the context of climate change remains an outstanding issue, which
we will discuss below.
The recommendations made regarding specific governance
measures, most notably input/output strategies and MPAs, have the
highest potential, of the various management options forwarded, to
directly, and immediately, influence resource access. Managing
uncertainty, vulnerability and risk through input/output controls
(i.e. by reducing resource exploitation rates), in addition to miti-
gating the impacts of climate change, directly targets overcapacity
in the global fishery, which has been widely cited as a key driver
negatively impacting resource stability and economic returns
(Arnason et al., 2009; Barkin and DeSombre, 2013; Salomon and
Holm-Müller, 2013; Sumaila et al., 2008, 2010, 2014). Reducing
capacity, regardless of the inspiring rational, has proven difficult,
often because of the aforementioned governance challenges that
47
characterize RFMOs and common pool resources more broadly
(Barkin and DeSombre, 2013).
While the number of times each of the 21 recommendations is
forwarded is of considerable value, the number of categories is also
of interest. If RFMOs are to maximize the likelihood the resources
under their jurisdiction are managed in a manner that promotes
conservation and optimal use, it is useful for such organizations (or
any fisheries management organization, regardless of governance
scale) to consider the full breadth of the options identified in Fig. 2.
Attempting to mitigate the effects of climate change through a
small number of concentrated, dramatic reformative measures may
significantly strengthen management frameworks, but only if
proposals are accepted and approved by the RFMO's membership.
For reasons examined later, reformative measures, especially those
promoting resource conservation and reducing resource access,
may not receive the necessary support from a management orga-
nization's members or stakeholders. Therefore, an alternative
strategy may be to pursue several of the reformative measures
listed in Fig. 2 incrementally and simultaneously, as less extensive
proposals may be more likely to navigate the political process and
institutional context dictating reform in RFMOs than substantial
reform may be. This is somewhat similar to Everson (2015) sug-
gestion that MPAs be installed through simultaneous application of
numerous smaller measures that, together, have the overall effect
of an MPA. The options summarized in Fig. 2 could serve as an
option catalogue for fisheries management organizations striving
to design their frameworks in such a manner, which could promote
conservation and resource resilience to the greatest extent possible
given institutional context and prevailing political sentiment in
fisheries management organizations.
4.2. The ‘responsiveness gap’ between majority- and consensus-
based decision-making policies
We integrated institutional context into our literature search by
including ‘decision-making’ and related keywords. However,
despite the prevalence of recommendations targeting institutional
characteristics (Fig. 2), we did not find any article discussing
decision-making rules and their relevance in the context of effec-
tive fisheries management in the context of climate change. This
suggests a general lack of theoretical and empirical attention has
been paid to the various rules regarding decision-making and their
ability to effectively promote the climate change management
strategies commonly identified in our review.
RFMOs decide on proposals though voting in their respective
general councils (although precise rules and formats vary by or-
ganization (see Lodge et al., 2007; McDorman, 2005), where each
member state, or Contracting Party (CP), receives one vote. There
are four voting different voting thresholds used by RFMOs use to
make decisions regarding matters of substance (i.e. matters related
to conservation and management, such as total allowable catch,
allocations, gear regulations, etc. (Lodge et al., 2007)). Organiza-
tions either make decisions by simple majority (50%þ1, e.g. ICCAT),
supermajority (2/3rds or 75%, e.g. NAFO), consensus (requiring the
agreement of all voting CPs, e.g. CCAMLR), or unanimously (all
parties voting in favour, e.g. IATTC)(Lodge et al., 2007).
RFMOs have trended towards decision-making by consensus
(McDorman, 2005). Although consensus-based approaches are
often employed in international organizations for the benefits this
approach provides (attempting to ensure success by achieving
broad support), in the context of fisheries management during
climate change, this type of policy carries significant downside.
Reforming common-pool resource management approaches inev-
itably creates (either real or perceived) impacts to CPs, which may
influence the likelihood reformative proposals are approved. States
48 B. Pentz, N. Klenk / Ocean & Coastal Management 145 (2017) 44e51
are often wary of agreeing to forgo current benefits and income
derived from resource exploitation for uncertain benefits at an
uncertain time in the future.
Consensus-based decision-making, therefore, favours the ‘law of
least ambitious program’ (Underdal, 1980), where policy reform
will only progress to the level deemed acceptable by those least
interested in reform. Contracting parties perceiving reform to
negatively impact their interests can block it, reducing RFMO
adaptability, institutional capacity expansion, exploitation reform,
MPA installation and other conservation-centric management ap-
proaches, strategies that we have shown to be widely considered as
important in the context of resource management during climate
change (Fig. 2). Furthermore, in consensus-based systems, CPs
preferring the status quo can ensure policy shifts are only incre-
mental (i.e. moderate quota reduction), when more aggressive
approaches may be prudent (i.e. MPA installation or moratorium).
Consensus-based rules, especially when employed in large RFMOs
having memberships with diverse interests (i.e. Brooks, 2013),
heavily favour the status quo, or at best, incremental reform, rather
than embracing the adaptive approaches, and other climate-change
management approaches the litany calls for.
Consensus-based decision making suffers more in this regard
than decision-making rules requiring simple or supermajorities, as
discussed below. These different decision making strategies are
differently equipped to allow the uptake of policy proposals
(especially those aimed primarily towards conservation-based
outcomes). The ability of RFMOs to adapt, therefore, is not uni-
form across RFMOs, but a function of decision-making rules. We
call this difference in capacity to adapt the ‘responsiveness gap’.
In the next section, we highlight examples from the Commission
for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources
(CCAMRL) and the International Whaling Commission (IWC) that
demonstrate that, despite their omission in our literature review
(Fig. 2), these rules have influenced policy uptake and are relevant
in the context of fisheries management during climate change. We
then review the implications of the responsiveness gap during
climate change and provide recommendations for facilitating pol-
icy uptake in consensus-based systems.
4.3. The ‘responsiveness gap’ in practise
CCAMLR's recent attempts to establish a network of MPAs is an
important example of how decision-making rules can limit the
pace and extent of reform and adaptiveness. CCAMLR has operated
rather successfully using consensus-based decision-making
through its history (Turner et al., 2008; Nilsson et al., 2016), and has
long been considered a leading RFMO (Constable, 2011; Brooks,
2013). We highlight this case study not only because it demon-
strates the relevance of decision-making rules, but because MPAs
were commonly identified in our review (14 times) as an appro-
priate measure to mitigate climate change impacts.
The South Orkney Islands MPA was installed in 2009 (CCAMLR,
2009) as the world's first MPA installed in international waters
(Scott, 2012). Several proposals were forwarded to expand the MPA
network by installing protected in the Ross Sea and the East Ant-
arctic (Brooks, 2013; Brooks et al., 2016). Various MPA proposals for
these areas have been rejected, as members have voted against the
proposals on the basis that proposed MPAs would contradict
member values and interests by interfering with fishing enterprises
(Brooks, 2013).
In October 2017, CCAMLR's CPs agreed to establish a large MPA
in the Ross Sea (CCAMLR, 2016). The MPA was first proposed in 2011
by the United States and New Zealand, with the accepted proposal
being the result of several years of negotiations and failed proposals
(Nyman, 2016). The strength of the accepted proposal, however, is
an indictment of the consensus-based decision-making rules that
characterized its negotiations and led to its approval. The MPA in-
cludes a 35-year period of designation (considered inadequate and
contradictory to established MPA criteria), is substantially smaller
than previous proposals, and omits areas of ecological importance
(Brooks et al., 2016). The outcome and characteristics of the
accepted proposal are typical of the influence the ‘law of least
ambitious program’ possesses in consensus-based systems.
While decision-making by consensus suffers the most from the
‘law of least ambitious program’ phenomenon, it does not mean
that other decision-making voting thresholds are necessarily highly
responsive, just that they are more likely to be. The commercial
whaling moratorium installed by the IWC is another example of
how institutional decision-making rules can influence policy up-
take in a high seas resource management organization. The IWC
requires a supermajority (75%) level of approval from membership
for proposals to be accepted. While the IWC's membership was
initially comprised only of whaling states, the organization
expanded significantly as whaling became a global political issue in
the 1970s (Andresen, 1989). After an initial moratorium proposal
failed in 1972 (Morishita and Goodman, 2011), the anti-whaling
camp expanded (through membership gain) past the 75% voting
threshold and in 1982 a moratorium proposal passed (Hurd, 2012).
Considering the steadfastness of members of the pro-whaling camp
(Blok, 2008), consensus-based decision-making rules would have
certainly delayed, if not entirely prevented, the IWC whaling
moratorium.
These examples demonstrate that moratoria, adaptive man-
agement, quota cuts, and MPAs installation are difficult measures to
apply despite the decision-making context and their importance to
effective management during climate change (Fig. 2). However, this
does not suggest that the various decision-making strategies evenly
promote adaptability and responsiveness in their respective in-
stitutions. Despite the protracted negotiations leading to IWC's
moratorium and CCAMLR's Ross Sea MPA, the proposals, and
applied policies, differ considerably in terms of the scale of impact
to stakeholders. Together, these examples demonstrate that a sig-
nificant theoretical responsiveness gap exists between majority-
based and consensus-based decision-making strategies. The
importance of this ‘responsiveness gap’ will be underscored during
resource fluctuations driven by climate change.
4.4. Implications for policy and practise
RFMOs employ various decision-making rules, but the conven-
tions that denote these rules were often designed before the impact
of climate change on the marine environment was well understood.
Therefore, the trade-off calculations or normative contexts initially
inspiring the decision-making approach employed may not have
fully taken into account the need for readily adaptive institutions
(as made evident in Fig. 2). While decision-making strategies that
require less than a consensus to be reached do not necessarily
guarantee the institutions that employ this strategy will be
responsive and adaptable, it is likely they increase this possibility,
benefitting resource bases through the increased likelihood that
reformative measures inspired by potential climate change impacts
(Fig. 2) could be introduced. Our review of the literature suggests a
need to better connect prescriptions for adaptive management
with a greater research focus on institutional capacity building to
design and experiment with different decision-making rules.
In their recommendations for best practices in RFMOs, Lodge
et al. (2007) argue in favour of majority-based decision-making,
but clarify that rather than simple majorities, two-thirds or three-
quarters majority would provide the conditions most likely to
yield optimal management results in RFMOs. In the context of
 B. Pentz, N. Klenk / Ocean & Coastal Management 145 (2017) 44e51
fisheries management during heightened risk, uncertainty and
vulnerability resulting from climate change, this type of decision-
making could better enable RFMOs to effectively adapt to
resource contexts through responsive reform to input/output con-
trols, and MPA installation.
However, the path forward from consensus-based decision-
making is not readily apparent. There are two critical sticking
points preventing a transition to majority-based policy. First, with
respect to CCAMLR, and across the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) as
a whole, consensus-based decision-making carries significant
normative and historical weight (Dudeney and Walton. 2012). For
one organ of the ATS to move away from this type of decision-
making would be a significant departure from ATS custom.
Second, and more broadly, changing decision-making rules from
consensus to majority-based would constitute a substantive shift,
and such a proposal would require a consensus from CPs. Achieving
a consensus on this matter would be unlikely, as CPs may feel
forgoing veto power may reduce their influence in the organization
and may be detrimental to state interests. These two factors suggest
reform to the decision-making process is unlikely.
How then, without substantive changes to institutional
decision-making rules, can regional fisheries management proceed
in order to manage resources effectively during climate change?
Traditionally, management approaches supported by scientific
findings have been presented as ideal-type responses to various
resource management challenges. The strength of such proposals
relies in large part on the assumed legitimacy and relevance to
practice, and their assumed apolitical position towards particular
interest groups.
However, science-based management proposals (or reform of
previous strategies) can inadvertently create perceptions of un-
equal outcomes among member states. Such proposals invariably
face difficulty in consensus-based systems as states perceiving
negative outcomes defend their interests. Developing management
approaches in a manner that excludes political and institutional
realities, although a critical characteristic of science-based deci-
sion-making, therefore may not contribute to an atmosphere
conducive to successful implementation and execution of adaptive
management, or more broadly, effective management during
climate change.
While fisheries science has continually refined our under-
standing of the status, risk and uncertainty characterizing exploited
species and systems, it has often lacked the capacity to produce a
management framework capable of effectively navigating the social
and political systems dictating resource use. If adaptive manage-
ment is indeed the strategy most likely to deliver on resource
sustainability goals during climate change, and consensus-based
decision-making platforms remain in place, then perhaps the un-
derlying formulation of management reform must be revisited.
Incorporating policy analysis into the governance process to a
greater extent, specifically with regard to institutional contexts (i.e.
decision-making rules, history, norms and trends) and stakeholder/
member state interests may be one possible alternative to the
status quo. These contexts have distinct implications for how policy
proposals fare and the speed at which reforms are enacted. Finding
common ground and acceptable solutions and policies has tradi-
tionally been achieved in RFMOs through negotiations, debate, and
consensus generation in either subcommittees and/or general
councils. While scientific findings and recommendations would
still need to play a large role in informing policy decisions and
output, management approaches and strategies could be re-
articulated in light of institutional analyses that facilitate political
negotiation processes, ideally improving the pace at which adaptive
approaches are installed. Critically engaging in the institutionali-
zation of political negotiation in fisheries management, rather than
49
stripping management frameworks from their social contexts and
thereby sanitizing our view of the role of science in the science-
policy interface, may help close the implementation gap between
majority-based and consensus-based decision-making organiza-
tions. This may allow increased application of adaptive manage-
ment strategies, with resource stability and socioeconomic output
standing to gain.
The argument made by Brooks et al. (2016) that science-based
management should dominate decision-making in CCAMLR and
that negotiations and management decisions should be void of
political posturing and short-term interests is a solution that per-
petuates a technocratic approach in fisheries management which
assumes non-political decision-making is indeed plausible. Our
analysis suggests that political-economic stakes cannot be sepa-
rated from evidence-based decision-making, and that to respond to
environmental changes, fisheries management bodies will need to
pay more attention to how their decision-making rules enable or
constrain adaptive management. Bracketing out political-economic
stakes will not make these critical management factors go away,
but rather undermine the long-term social licence and political
effectiveness of regional fisheries management bodies. We argue
that sound scientific decision-making is through and through a
political-economic process requiring empirical research and
experimentation.
5. Conclusions
The marine environment, and marine living resources, will be
influenced by a changing global climate system. The precise extent
of this influence is difficult to predict, and due to local oceano-
graphic and biological contexts, specific management measures are
impossible to apply broadly. The literature reviewed in this study
has provided suggestions on how fisheries management frame-
works can best respond to a changing climate to meet conservation
and exploitation goals. Adaptive management and institutional
capacity building have been most commonly identified as key at-
tributes for fisheries governance systems to be successful during
climate change, while at the operational level, input/output mea-
sures and MPAs were most commonly recommended. Yet, our re-
view shows there is a dearth of theoretical and empirical analyses
of the political and decision-making structures that support or
constrain adaptiveness.
The responsiveness and adaptiveness of a fisheries management
organization to implement decisions is a function of the gover-
nance system (Miller et al., 2010), however none of the articles
identified through the search process identified the decision-
making rules of RFMOs as a potential obstacle to effective man-
agement during climate change. However, experiences from
CCAMLR and the IWC confirm the relevance of decision-making
rules and their influence on the reform process. These rules
directly influence the adaptability and flexibility of RFMOS,
potentially limiting their ability to incorporate key management
reforms aimed at reducing risk, uncertainty, and the vulnerability
of resource bases during climate change. This incompatibility be-
tween more readily adaptive governance attributes during climate
change and contemporary institutional settings with respect to
decision-making rules at the regional level (in CCAMLR and other
RFMOs) will become increasingly apparent as the theoretical im-
pacts of climate change transition from potential to kinetic.
Our analysis suggests that application of consensus-based de-
cision-making deserves increased attention for its role as an
influencing factor in the adaptability of RFMO governance. It is time
for RMFOs applying consensus-based decision making rules to
reassess the potential for such policies to promote resource sus-
tainably in the context of climate change.
50 B. Pentz, N. Klenk / Ocean & Coastal Management 145 (2017) 44e51
Finally, in lieu of making substantive changes to institutional
rules and norms regarding decision-making, increased attention
and analytical effort could be concentrated on the institutional
contexts and member state interest complexes that determine the
success and pace at which scientific recommendations inform
policy and practice. These contexts and complexes are shaped by
the historical experiences and normative conditions characterizing
RFMOs. As shown in the IWC and CCAMLR case studies, these
characteristics are unique to each institution, and can influence
policy application. Designing policy proposals with these factors in
mind is thus potentially preferable to a policy design process that
discounts institutional contexts and member interests.
While scientific understanding of resource bases has broadly
improved, developments have not necessarily led to an improve-
ment in consensus-generation regarding conservation-centric
management proposals. Given that decision-making rules are un-
likely to change, incorporating institutional analysis into the policy
process may represent an alternative that may hold the potential
for ready application of adaptive management, and improve the
ability of CCAMLR and other similar institutions to ensure resources
under their jurisdiction are exploited sustainably during climate
change.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.05.007.
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