Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Covariance=¿ ¿
Covariane xy
Sample Correlation ( r ) = -> 1 variable -> R^2 = correlation
Sx∗Sy
r ( √ ( n−2 ) ) Covxy
r= Slope=
√ ( 1−r ) 2 Variance x (std . dev . squared)
RSS=∑ of ¿ ¿
R2=
SST −SSE RSS ExplainedVar
SST
=
SST
=
TotalVar
SSE=√ ( MSE )= (√ MSE
n−2 )
b^j−b j
t=
S b^
j
Confidence Intervals:
b^ j +- (tc*Sb^ j ¿
bj= estimated regression coefficient tc= critical t-value Sbj = coefficient S.E.
RSS
MSR K
F= = MSR/E= Mean sum regression/estimate
MSE SSE
n−k −1
FP=Fwd . price∈contrac t
F=
( ( 360 ) )
Days
1+ RA
∗Spot Rate ( )
A
( 360 ) )
B
1+ RB (
Days
rK
α= rK= payment for capitalY =total output α=amount ∨% ¿ capital
y
Total working
labor force participation=
Working age population
θ
g∗¿ θ=growth∈technology 1−a=labor share of GDP
1−α
θ
G¿ = + Δ L Δ L=Growth of labor
1−α
growth rate∈ potential GDP=long−term growth rate of labor force +long−term growthrate∈labor productivity
FRA Formulas
Full Goodwill=FV Equity of whole – FV net identifiable assets of ¿
PENSION:
Periodic Cost ∈P∧L=Current Service cost +interest cost −expected return on assets
PBO=Beginning of year benefit PBO+Current service costs+interest costs+ past service costs+ actuarialloss ( ga
Total Periodic Pension Cost ( TPPC ) =Employer contribution−change∈funding status=Service Cost + Interest Co
PPC P∧L[no amortization]=Current service costs+interest cost−expected return plan assets( expected rate of re
Periodic pensioncost ∈P∧L :Current service costs+ past service cost (total ) +net interest cost ( discount rate∗begin
Adjusted Operation Profit after Pension=Operating Profit+ Interest Cost −Expected Return
Quality of Earnings
A.R.
Days Sales Outstanding( AR turnover ratio) ( DSO )= ∗365
TotalCredit Sales ( ¿ sales )
Sales
Accts. Rec . T . O.=
AR
¿ ∗EBT
EBT
∗EBIT
EBIT
∗revenue
Revenue
∗average assets
average assets
ROE=
average equity
Cash
Defensive Interval Ratio=
Daily Expenditures
Corporate Finance
Expansion:
Replacement:
Terminal year non . op . CF=TNOCF =( Sale ( new )−Sale ( old ) ) + NWCInv−T ( Sale ( new ) −BV ( new ) ) −(Sale ( old )−
MM THEORIES
MM 2: ℜ=r 0+ ( DE ) ( r 0−rd ), re= cost of equity, rd= cost of debt, r0= unlevered cost of capital
MM WITH TAXES:
MM1 (With Tax): Firm Value Max @ 100% debt: VLevered Firm=Vunlevered + ( t∗d )
D
MM2 (With Tax): WACC Minimized at 100% debt: ℜ=r 0+( )(r 0−rd)(1−t)
E
FreeCash Flow :∋+ Interest ( 1−t ) +∆ Deferred Tax + Non CashCharges−∆ WC−CAPEX ,
∆ WC =CA ( exclude cash∧equivalents )−CL (exclude short −term debt)
NCC = Non-cash charges, FCInv = Fixed Capital Investment (CAPEX) WCInv = WC Inv
FCF (1+ g )
Terminal Value= WACC Adjusted=WACC after merger
WACC adjusted−g
FCFterminal∗P
Terminal Vale= → assumes firmtrade at end projected ratio
FCF
V ( Acq+Target)=Va+Vt + S−C , Va= pre merger valueof acquirer ,Vt =Target , S=Synergies created ,C=cash pa
Gain ¿ target Shareholders=TP=Pt −Vt , TP=Takeover premium Pt=Price paid ,Vt = premerger price
Pt for stock offering is expected stock price AFTER merger of acquirer, applied as Pt
Equity
P 1−P 0+CF 1
Holding Period Return=r=
P0
Fama French Model : Return for Stock j : Rf + BMrk , j ( R mrkt −R free ) + BSMB , j ( R small−R big ) + B HML (R HBM −R LBM )
, where Bhml = High Minus Low
Pastor Stambaugh Model : Rf + B Mrk , j ( Rmrkt −R free ) + B SMB , j ( R small−Rbig ) + BHML ( R HBM −R LBM )+
BLiquidity ¿
Rf +B∗Confidence Risk+ B∗Time Horizon Risk + B∗Inflation Risk + B∗Business Cycle Risk +B∗Market Timing R
2 1
Adjusted Beta=( ∗Regression Beta )+( )
3 3
1
( DE )]
Unlever Beta=BETAxyz∗( )
(1+ ( )
D
E
)
Lever Beta=Unlever Beta∗[1+
E1 E1
V 0= + PVGO , E 1=earnings at t=1, =value of perpetual cash flows
r r
D1
SGR( g)=RoE∗Retention Rate r= +g
P0
¿−¿ ∗¿
¿ ∗Sales
Sales
∗TA
TA
g= =P ( rofit )∗R ( eturn )∗A ( sset Turnover )∗Financial Leverage (T )
SE
Firm Value=Market Value Equity [FCFE @ Required RoE ]+ Market Value Debt
Market-Based Valuation
Trailing Earnings
Normalized Earnings=Normal RoE∗BVPS NetProfitMargin=
Sales
P 0 RoE−g
=
B0 r −g
dividends
Forecasted 4 quarters
next
Leading dividend yield=
Market price per share
D 0 r −g
Justified Dividend Yield= =
P 0 1+ g
P P
S S TrailingP/ E
Trailing P /E= = Leading P /E=
E 0 Net Profit Margin 1+ g
S
Leading = =
D1
P P0 E 1 1−b
= Trailing
P P0
= =
( D
0∗1+ g
E0
=
)[ ( 1−b )∗(1+ g ) ]
E E 1 r −g r−g E E0 r−g r−g
RoE−g
Justified Price Book=
r−g
Justified
P0
=
( S0 )
E0
∗[( 1−b )∗( 1+ g ) ]
=NPM∗Justified Trailing PE Ratio
S0 r−g
g=b∗NPM∗ ( Assets
Sales
)∗( assets
SE
)
PE Ratio
PEG Ratio=
g
RI
=Expected EPS−( r∗BV Equity per share [ at time t−1 ] ) =( RoE−r )∗(BV Equity per share [ t−1 ] )
Share
1
Discount for Lack of Control=1−[ ]
1+ control premium
Fixed Income
P ( j +k )
P ( j+k )=Pj∗F ( j , k )=F ( j , k )= i . e . S 2=4 % , S 5=6 % .
Pj
rate
Finding3 year bond ∈2 years =Apply S 5 rate for 5 years , divide by S 2 years .
2
j+ k k
Forward Rate Model=[ 1+ S ( j+k ) ] =( 1+Sj ) j∗[ 1+f ( j, k ) ]
j+ k
k
¿ [ 1+f ( j, k ) ] =
[ 1+ S ( j+ k ) ] Price of n− year zero−coupon bond=
1
j
( 1+ Sj ) ( 1+ Sn )n
TED Spread ( T −bill Eurodollar )=( n−Month Libor )−( n−Month T −bill Rate)
Effective Duration=
[ ( BV −∆ y −BV +∆ y ) ]
2∗BV 0∗∆ y
Put −Call Parity=C−P=PV ( Fwd . price of bond on exercise date )−PV ( Exercise price )
t
Probability of Survival ( PSt ) =( 1−hazard rate )
[
[1+ L 0 ( h+m )∗t h+m ] −1]∗1
FRA(0,h,m) fixed rate = [1+ L 0 ( h )∗t h]
tm
−number of shares
¿ of long put=
Delta of put option
Long stock + short futures=Risk−free assetCovered Call Position=Long Stock + Short Call
X = Exercise Price
T=Option maturity
Collar Long put (lower price than call), Max profit = Xh-S0-(P0-C0)
- Decrease volatility short call (higher price than put) Max Loss = S0-Xl+(P0-C0)
Breakeven = S0+(P0/C0)
Straddle Long call, long put @ same strike Maximum profit = St-X-(C0+P0)
- Bet on volatility (unlimited upside since St increases
forever)
Max loss = C0 + P0
Breakeven = X-(C0+P0) and X+
(C0+P0) [two break evens]
S0 and ST = stock price at time 0 and T
σ annual=% ∆ P∗¿
Alternative Investments
Net Operating Income=Rental Income if Fully Occupied +OtherIncome−Vacancy ∧collection loss−Operating ex
NOI ∈Year 1
Capitalization Rate= =discount rate−growthrate
Value(¿ use comparable sales price)
loanamount
Loan ¿ value ( LTV ) ratio=
Appraisal value
CFYear 1
Equity Dividend Rate=
Equity
NOI
Property Value=
Cap Rate
NAV Before=NAV After Dist ( Year−1 ) +Capital Called Down−Mgmt Fees +Op. Results
Distributions
Distributions ¿ paid ∈capital ( DVI ) =
Total Paid ∈Capital
Investment
Post Money = [IRR method]
VC Share of company
FV ( Inv . )
Ownership ( f ) IRR Method=
Exit Value
founder∗f Investment
Shares belonging¿ VC =Shares Price = VC ¿
1−f Shares ¿
Multi-step VC Valuation
PRE 2
POST 1= n1
( 1+ r 1 )
Adjusting Discount Rate ( adjust r ¿ reflect risk company fail∈any given year )
1+r
r∗¿ −1 , q=probability of failure
1−q
Portfolio Management
RRTTLLU (risk, return, time, taxes, liquidity needs, legal, unique circumstances)
2 2 2 2 2
σ Portfolio =W a∗σ a +W b∗σ b +2 W a∗W b∗COV ab
1 2 ∆Y
Change∈ Price=−Duration ( ∆ Y )+ ∗Convexity ( ∆ Y ) , ∆Y = if Macaulay duration
2 1+ y
1 2
Change∈call=delta∗( ∆ S ) + ∗gamma ( ∆ S ) + vega ( ∆ V )
2
Rate of Return Risky Bond=Rf +exp . Inf + Actual Inf +Credit Spread
Rate of Return Equity=Rf +exp . Inf + Actual Inf +Credit Spread+ Risk Premium
Rate of Return Commercial R . Estate=Return Equity+ Risk Premium(illiquidity +uncertainity about terminal valu
VAR=¿
Rp−Rf
Sharpe Ratio= [ UNAFFECTED BY CASH ∧LEVERAGE ]
σp
Information Ratio=TC∗IC∗√ BR
¿
Optimal Active Risk that Maximizese Sharpe=σ Active = ( SR IR )∗σ
Benchmark
Benchmark
Sharpe with Optimal Level of Active risk =SR p =√ SR 2Benchmark + Info Ratio 2
2 2 2
Total Risk =σ P =σ B+ σ A