Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Pratice
Prepared By
Ganesh.P
Assistant Professor
Department of Commerce
BANKING AND ECONOMICS
Traditional banking----taking deposits and making loans
Modern bank is a complex financial institution staffed by
multi-skilled individuals conducting multi-task operations
Focus of the talk in next few days is on studying bank
behaviour (optimisation subject to constraints) and bank
management practices
Understanding the behaviour of banks using basic tools of
economic analysis
Question to Answer
Why banks exists?
How to check bank financial health?
Is the merger of banks beneficial to society and banks?
Size: Bigger banks are better for the society?
How to measure degree of competition in banking
Why banks need more regulations compare to NBFI’s ?
Are the banking regulations laws same in different
countries ?
What are the managerial issues in banking ?
Risk management and prudential regulation
Question to Answer
Is the banking industry structure same across globe ?
Why banks go abroad or merge?
Has the globalisation changed the way banks operate
now?
Why some countries banks are more dominant
internationally ?
Can a bank fail, if yes, then why?
Is the bank failure new phenomenon or historical ?
Are there some qualitative and quantitative techniques
developed to know beforehand a bank failure ?
Yes, you will be able to answer all these questions in next
10 days?
Aims and Outcome of Course
AIM
How economics can explain the existence, nature and
operation of retail, wholesale and international banking
OUTCOME
demonstrate a historical development of banking
Duration analysis
Conclusion (summary)
Managing Risks in Banking
Reading
MB ch.3
Edition
ISBN: 0-201-75666-8
ch.11
CBM ch.6,7,8,9,10
MOB ch.8
Banking Laws: Prudential
Control in Banking
Introduction: Why banking regulation?
Types of risks envisaged in banking and its relations to
banking regulation
Arguments for prudential control/regulation
Reading
MB ch.4,ch.5
MOB ch.9
Empirical Work on Efficiency and
Competition Issues in Banking
Why we study competitive issues in banking? Are
competitive banks good for us?
Measuring bank output
Reading
MB ch.9
MOB ch.3
Banking Failures
Why banks fail?
Case studies of bank failure
The determinants of bank failure
Management incompetence
Fraud
Regulatory tolerance
Global recession
Solutions of bank failure
Reading
MB ch.7,ch.9
Funds
Borrower-Spenders
Lender-Savers Business firms
Household Government
Business firms Funds Financial Funds
Households
Government Markets
Foreigners
Foreigners
Direct Finance
Why do banks exist? The
traditional theory of banking
Answer: Due to liquidity and payment services
Money evolved from commodity money (e.g. gold coin)
Rip-off of customers in UK
countries:
UK
USA
Germany
UK Banking Sector
Overall
Retail banking-dominates.
Investment banking and overseas expansion- Poor record.
Concentration is high.
Switch of status by the building societies.
High profit-poor management.
Bank of England
The Bank of England is the central bank Responsible for:
Monetary stability.
Assist to FSA.
Banking structure
Protection of consumers
Retail banking
Services provided
Safe store
Payment mechanism (money transmission system)
Financial intermediation (savings and lending)
Other wide services such as financial advice, FOREX, share
dealing and insurance etc.
Wholesale banking (app. 480)
Services provided and main features
Large accounts and small number of minimum deposits i.e. £250k,
£500k.
Large foreign currency business-most of them are foreign.
Advice on privatisation-portfolio management-services to corporate
sector. Not involved in payment mechanism.
Building Societies (75)
Building Societies (75)
Very significant, but share declined after 1986
Products offered:
Mortgage
Life Insurance
Pensions
Investment products
International Banks in UK
Government encourages foreign banks operations
London is the most famous banking centre with New York
and Tokyo. Very significant share
375 foreign banks, 200 representative offices and 100
foreign securities houses
USA Banking System
Important Features
US banking system has over 27,000 deposits taking
institutions compared to 500 banks and 83 building
societies in UK
Banking system is concentrated as 76% total assets are
held by commercial banks
Over the time US banking sector has lost its dominance
US banks weaknesses include developing country debt
problems and decline in agriculture commodity and real
estate prices
Structure and regulations of the
US commercial banking industry
There are around 2800 commercial banks in the USA, for
more than in any other country in the world
In Canada or UK usually five or six major banks
dominates the industry but in USA ten largest banks
hold only 36% of the assets in their industry
Restrictions and regulations on branches had resulted in
more banks
Two-third deposits are held by commercial banks, and
remaining by thrift institutions
In the past, it had been a case that an American bank
could open a branch in foreign country easily than
domestically
The McFadden Act 1927, had effectively prohibited larger
banks to open branches across states
Structure and regulations of the
US commercial banking industry
The McFadden Act and state branching regulates
constituted strong anticompetitive forces in the
commercial banking industry
But from late 1990s, situation has changed
Regulation on branches particularly are being eased
The restriction on branches had resulted in three
developments:
Bank holding companies
Nonbank banks
Automated Teller Machines (ATM)
Bank holding companies
Banks failures in late 1980s and early 1990s had provided the
base for banks consolidation
Mergers and consolidations had been an important part of
bank failure strategy
Banks consolidation was further stimulated by the passage of
Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act
This legislation expands the regional compacts to the entire
nation and overturn the McFadden Act of prohibited interstate
banking
This Act had almost ensured the interstate banking roughly in
all 50 states
USA- Commercial banks
consolidation
It is anticipated that after consolidation there will be
roughly 4000 commercial banks rather than present 8500
Another important feature of the USA commercial
banking industry had been the separation of commercial
banking from investment banking such as securities,
insurance and real estate business
Glass-Steagall Act 1933 had prohibited them from
underwriting corporate securities or from engaging in
brokerage activities. In turn, this Act had also prohibited
investment banks and insurance companies from
engaging in commercial banking activities
In 1997, however, the Federal Reserve allowed holding
companied to underwrite securities and stocks
Initially it was insured that the revenue from these
activities should be 10%, raised to 25% later on
USA- Commercial banks
consolidation
Restrictions on commercial banks securities and
insurance activities put American banks at a comparative
disadvantage relative to foreign banks
In 1999, the Congress had passed a bill, which effectively
abolished the Glass-Steagall Act
This legislation, which is called Gramm-Leach-Bliley
Financial Services Modernisation Act of 1999, had allowed
securities firms and insurance companies to purchase
banks and allowed banks to underwrite insurance and
securities and engage in real estate activities
Thrift industry in USA
Credit unions
Credit unions are small cooperative lending institutions
They are the only financial institutions which are tax
exempted and can be chartered either by the state or the
federal government
The National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF)
provides insurance for deposits
Since the majority of the credit union lending is for
consumer loans with fairly short term of maturity, they do
not suffer the financial difficulties of S&Ls and mutual
saving banks
These unions are permitted to do branching in all states
w/o any problem
International banking in USA
Features
German banks are typically universal ones
capital.
Interest rate
Foreign exchange
Gearing or leverage
Market or price
Credit risk
Duration analysis
Gap analysis
Foreign exchange
Hedging
Market or price
Credit risk
probability of default on a loan agreement.
requirements
financing wage bills etc.
Loan commitments
Collateral
Compensating balances
Qualitative
Banks usually use four ways to minimise credit risk.
Accurate pricing of loans---more risky loans may
be priced higher than the less risky loans.
Credit limits----credit limit may be imposed on the
borrower according to their wealth or potential
income in near future.
Collateral or security----loans should be properly
secured against the wealth or assets of the
borrower (houses or shares etc.)
Diversification---risky loans can be backed up
through new capital injection or diversification
through finding new loans markets.
Approaches to the management of credit
risks
Relative
Dollar IS Gap
Interest-
Sensitive Gap Bank Size
Assets
Short-term securities issued by the government and private
borrowers
Short-term loans made by the bank to borrowing customers
Variable-rate loans made by the bank to borrowing customers
Liabilities
Borrowings from money markets
Short-term savings accounts
Money-market deposits
Variable-rate deposits
Gap Positions and the Effect of
Interest Rate Changes on the Bank
Asset-Sensitive Bank
Interest rates rise
NIM rises
Interest rates fall
NIM falls
Liability-Sensitive Bank
Interest rates rise
NIM falls
Interest rates fall
NIM rises
Important Decision Regarding
IS Gap
Management must choose the time period over which NIM is
to be managed
Management must choose a target NIM
i i
NW - D A * * A - - D L * * L
(1 i) (1 i)
Impact of Changing Interest
Rates on a Bank’s Net Worth
Liquidity Profile
One week Two week
interest income 1.0 1.0
interest expenses -0.7 -0.7
operating expenses -0.1 -0.1
tax 0.0 0.0
reimbursement of principal
Loans and bonds 30 30
estimated new lending -25 -35
reimbursement of deposits -40 -10
estimated new deposits 10 10
Avoiding higher
borrowing costs
Use a short
hedge: sell futures
and declining asset contracts and then
values purchase similar
contracts later
Avoiding lower
than expected
yields from loans
Use a long hedge:
buy futures
contracts and then
and securities sell similar
contracts later
Interest Rate Option
It grants the holder of the option the right but not the
obligation to buy or sell specific financial instruments at an
agreed upon price.
Types of Options
Put Option - Gives the holder of the option the right to sell the
financial instrument at a set price
Call Option - Gives the holder of the option the right to
purchase the financial instrument at a set price
Principal Uses of Option Contracts
Protection of the bond portfolio
Hedging against positive or negative gap positions
Most Common Option Contracts Used By Banks
U.S. Treasury bill futures options; Eurodollar futures option; U.S.
Treasury bond option; LIBOR futures option
Using Swaps and Other Asset-
Liability Management Techniques
• Swap contracts and selected other asset-liability management
techniques can be used to eliminate or at least reduce a bank’s
potential exposure to the risk of loss as market conditions change.
• Swap contracts and other hedging tools can also generate
additional revenues for banks by providing risk-hedging services
to their customers.
Interest Rate Swap
A contract between two parties to exchange interest payments in
an effort to save money and hedge against interest-rate risk
Currency Swap
An agreement between two parties, each owing funds to other
contractors denominated in different currencies, to exchange the
needed currencies with each other and honor their respective
contracts.
Other Instruments (OTC)
Interest Rate Cap
Protects the holder from rising interest rates. For an up
front fee borrowers are assured their loan rate will
not rise above the cap rate
Interest Rate Floor
A contract setting the lowest interest rate a borrower
is allowed to pay on a flexible-rate loan
Interest Rate Collar
A contract setting the maximum and minimum
interest rates that may be assessed on a flexible-rate
loan. It combines an interest rate cap and floor into
one contract.
Off-Balance Sheet Financing in
Banking and Credit Derivatives
Securitization of Assets
The pooling of a group of similar loans and issuing securities
against the pool whose return depends on the stream of
interest and principal payments generated by the loans
Advantages/Problem of Securitization
Diversifies a bank’s credit risk exposure
Residential mortgages
Home equity loans
Automobile loans
Commercial mortgages
Small business administration loans
Mobile home loans
Credit card receivables
Truck leases
Computer leases
Loan Sales
Marketing loan contracts held by an institution in order to
raise new cash
Types of Loan Sales
Participation loans
Risks in Banking
Systematic risk------bank runs/contagion
Default risk---------credit risk
Outline
Arguments for prudential control/regulation
Arguments against prudential control/regulation
Case studies
UK
USA
Prudential control in banking
All firms have to ensure for capital adequacy (keep capital reserves
(money) to offset any losses)
In addition,
banks have to ensure sufficient liquidity.
Role of BoE is
Monetary control
Prudential control
1. Gearing ratio:
Deposits+ Ext. Liabilities
Capital + Reserve
Lower the GR, lower the risk that a bank will lose its
capital and fails
Example1:
Suppose a bank balance sheet is as:
Bank deposits + ext. liabilities = £1 mil.
Bank’s capital + reserve = £1 mil.
GR= 1/1=1
Implications: if bank lends £2 mil. and 50% of
borrowers default, bank loses all its capital but
depositors get back their money.
Capital Adequacy and the BOE
Example 2:
Suppose a bank balance sheet is as:
Overall
Evolved through time
Different to UK banking regulation by:
Seeking help from legislation whenever crises
the century
Created the federal reserve system. Gave the fed the
their state
Glass-Steagall Act 1933
Passed during the great depression
necessary action
Bank Holding Company Acts
Federal reserve given the power to regulate bank holding
companies - 1956
Amendment reduced the tax burden of bank holding
companies - 1966
Amended the definition of bank holding companies to include
Effect on competition
private information
Customers are allowed to ‘opt out’ of private information
sharing
Fees for ATM use must be clearly disclosed
Reasons of Downfall
Large foreign exchange losses.
Quick expansion.
Story
Refused by FR to take over another bank.
Reasons of Downfall
Lack of procedures to vet new loans.
Reasons of Downfall
Significant Loans exposure to a single country (Nigeria).
Banco Ambrosiano X X X
JMB X X X X
BCCI X X X
Common Lessons from Bank
Failure Case Studies
A number of qualitative conclusions can be drawn from the
individual bank failure case studies.
Bank may fail due to:
1. Weak asset management
a. Low quality loans with inappropriate collateral
arrangement.
b. Excessive exposure to one sector or single firm/country.
This exposure overlooked by regulatory authorities.
2. Inexperience with new products (FNB, Bankhaus Herstatt).
3. Managerial inefficiency in term of herd instinct (Barings).
4. Bank fraud and dishonesty (BA, FNB, BCCI)
5. Supervisors, bank inspectors and auditors missed important
signal of problem banks (JMB, BA, BCCI, Barings).
6. Too big to fail may lead to moral hazard and resultant bank
failure (JMB)
Competitive Issues in
Banking
Outline
Competitive issues in banking
Productivity measurement
Efficiency measurement
Problem
How to weight each bank service in the computation of
output.
The method ignores interest costs.
firms operating in the next time period, d 0t 1 (u t , xt ) ; and the efficiency of firms
operating in the next time period relative to the frontier in this time period,
d 0t (u t 1 , xt 1 ) . The TFP index is then calculated using Equation (1), above.
GR)
Real value of total assets: declined (the average TFP
Berger and Hannan (1989) conducted the direct tests of SCP and
relative efficiency models using the equation
rijt CONC jt xijt ijt
rjit : the interest paid at time t on one category of retail
deposits by bank i located in the local banking market, ji.
CONSjt: a measure of concentration in local market j at time
t. xijt: vector of control variables that
ijt may differ across
banks, market or time periods; :error term.
If SCP hypothesis hold, < 0 (negative relation between
concentration and deposit rate “the price of bank services”).
If relative efficiency model is hold, then >0.
The results show that SCP hypothesis hold for their data.
Empirical Results of SCP and
Relative Efficiency in Banking
Jackson (1992) key finding was that price is non-linear U
shape over the relevant range and support the relative
efficiency type model, where high level of market
concentration signal the gaining of market share by the most
efficient firm.
They found a negative for low concentration group and
positive for high concentration.
In response to Jackson study Berger and Hannan concluded
the price concentration relationship is negative for some
range of concentration.
Molyneux Forbes (1993) tested the SCP and relative
efficiency hypothesis using European data.
Their main finding was a significant positive concentration
price relationship, but the market share variable was
negative.
The authors concluded that the SCP hypothesis is supported
by this European sample.
Contestable Banking Markets
Some empirical studies have considered the question of
whether banking markets are contestable.
A contestable market is one in which existing firms are
“vulnerable to hit and run” entry.
For this type of market to exist sunk costs should be largely
absent.
Sunk costs is an economic term which means that cost which
cannot be recovered if firms stop producing and leaves
industry. Sunk cost is different to fixed cost.
Lot of banking experts believe that bank markets are
contestable.
It implies new firms can enter the banking market, hit and
then run (offering lower prices).
Empirical Studies on Contestable
Banking Markets
This has very important policy implication because it
implies that banks due to fear of hit and run feature of the
market, will set the price according to marginal cost and
consumer surplus will be maximised.
Shaffer (1982) used the Rosse-Panzer Statistics (RPS) to
test for contestability in US banking. He concluded that
banks in the sample behave neither as monopolists nor as
perfect competitors in the long run.
In Nathan and Neave (1989), a similar methodology was
applied for Canadian banking market.
Authors derived a positive but significantly different from
both zero and unity RPS confirming the absence of
monopoly power among Canadian banks and trust
companies.
Empirical Studies on Contestable
Banking Markets
Nathan and Neave concluded that their results were
consistent with a banking structure exhibiting some
features of monopolistic, contestable competition.
Molyneux, Lloyd, Williams and Thornton (1994) tested for
contestability in German, British, French, Italian and
Spanish markets
The authors found the RPS for Germany, the UK, France
and Spain, to be positive and significantly different from
zero and unity.
Their conclusion was that in these markets, commercial
bank revenues behaved as if they were earned under
monopolistic competition. For Italy, the authors could not
reject a hypothesis of monopoly.
Pricing Non-Price Characteristics in
Banking
Number of branches
Insurance on loans
Security on loans
1969 1994 1997 1997 2002 2002 2004 2004 2005 2005
Assets Assets Assets Tier 1 Tier 1 Assets Tier 1 Assets Tier 1 Assets
capital capital capital K
USA 7 1 0 3 3 2 3 1 3 3
Japan 0 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
UK 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3
France 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Germany 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Netherlan 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
ds
Switzerlan 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
d
China 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
BANKING STRUCTURES- Types of Banking
BUT
• In 1987, allowed “section 20 subsidiaries” to underwrite
corporate debt and equities
Banking Structure (continued)
US Investment bks: for a fee:
(a) Underwrite bond/equity issues to raise capital for large
corporations and government
(b) arrange mergers and acquisitions.
Central bank:
- Raises or lowers interest rates used to lend to banks, which, in
turn, raises or lowers aggregate demand, and through it the rate of
inflation.