STA1000S 2021

Week 5 Weekly Exercises – Probability Distributions: Uniform and

Binomial

*Solutions*

Question 1:

Mark is attending a music festival next month and has decided to do some diligent planning
based on the artist schedule given below. His lift, however, is extremely unreliable and Mark
knows that he will have an equal probability of arriving at any time between 18h00 and 21h25.
The bands and their starting times are shown in the table below.

Festival Line-up
19h00 20h00 21h00 21h30 22h00 23h00
PH Thin Minime Boomslang Frizz Bees The Troopers Jack Sparrow

a) What is the probability that Mark will arrive in time to watch at least four complete
shows?

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 be the arrival time of Mark in minutes. We know that Mark
has an equal probability of arriving at any time between 18h00 and 21h25. To make
the question easier, we will use 18h00 as our starting/reference point and set it to 0
minutes. Therefore, we know that the time 21h25 is 205 minutes after our starting
point of 0 minutes. This means that our random variable 𝑋𝑋 will be uniformly
distributed over the interval (0, 205). In other words, 𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝑈𝑈(0, 205). We have
converted to minutes to make the question easier. It is possible to answer the
question keeping the time in hours, however, you would need to correctly convert
25 minutes into hours (25 minutes becomes 25/60 = 5/12 hours). The pdf of our
random variable 𝑋𝑋 can be written as follows (using the functional form of the uniform
distribution with 𝑎𝑎 = 0 and 𝑏𝑏 = 205):

1
for 0 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 205
𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) = �205 − (0)
0 otherwise

1
= �205 for 0 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 205
0 otherwise
1
This function can be represented graphically as follows:

To watch at least four complete shows, we need Mark to arrive before 21h00. This
means that Mark cannot arrive more than 180 minutes after the starting point of 0
minutes. In other words, we want to determine Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 180). This is achieved as
follows:
180
180
1 1 1 180 36
Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 180) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑥𝑥� = [180 − 0] = = = 0.878.
205 205 0 205 205 41
0

Graphically, we want to determine the area of the following red region:

2
 We can find the area of the red rectangle by taking its height and multiplying it by its
length: Area of red rectangle = 1/205 × 180 = 0.878.

b) Mark is not keen to watch Frizz Bees, so they are planning to leave the stage area and
get some food at 21:18 (assuming that they have arrived by then). Depending on the
crowds, it is equally likely to take anywhere between 24 and 62 minutes to get his food
and return to the stage. What is the probability that Mark will return in time for the
start of The Troopers’ show?

Let the random variable 𝑌𝑌 be the amount of time that Mark takes to get his food and
return to the stage in minutes. Therefore, 𝑌𝑌 ~ 𝑈𝑈(24, 62) as it is equally likely for Mark
to take anywhere between 24 and 62 minutes to get his food and return to the stage.
Mark wants to return in time for the start of the Troopers’ show. If Mark leaves the
stage area at 21h18 then the earliest that he will arrive back is 21h42, while the latest
that he will arrive back is 22h20. We want Mark to arrive back before 22h00, which
means that he can take at most 42 minutes to get his food and return to the stage.
Therefore, we want to determine Pr(𝑌𝑌 < 42). This is achieved as follows:

42
1 1 42 1 18 9
Pr(𝑌𝑌 < 42) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑦𝑦� = [42 − 24] = = = 0.474.
38 38 24 38 38 19
24

Question 2:

Consider the Uniform random variable 𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝑈𝑈(6.5, 17.5).

a) Find Pr(9.52 < 𝑋𝑋 < 12.52).

The pdf of our random variable 𝑋𝑋 can be written as follows (using the functional form
of the uniform distribution with 𝑎𝑎 = 6.5 and 𝑏𝑏 = 17.5):

1
for 6.5 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 17.5
𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) = �17.5 − (6.5)
0 otherwise
1
= �11 for 6.5 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 17.5
0 otherwise

Therefore, we can determine Pr(9.52 < 𝑋𝑋 < 12.52) as follows:

12.52
1 1 12.52 1 3
Pr(9.52 < 𝑋𝑋 < 12.52) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑥𝑥� = [12.52 − 9.52] = .
11 11 9.52 11 11
9.52

3
 b) The third quartile (𝑞𝑞3 ) is defined as the value of a variable below which three quarters
of its distribution lies. Statistically we would say Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 𝑞𝑞3 ) = 0.75. Determine the
third quartile for 𝑋𝑋 as defined above.

We want Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 𝑞𝑞3 ) = 0.75. This expression can be written as follows:

𝑞𝑞3
1 1 𝑞𝑞3 1 𝑞𝑞3 − 6.5
Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 𝑞𝑞3 ) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑥𝑥� = [𝑞𝑞3 − 6.5] = = 0.75.
11 11 6.5 11 11
6.5

We are then able to solve for 𝑞𝑞3 as follows:

𝑞𝑞3 − 6.5
= 0.75
11
⇒ 𝑞𝑞3 − 6.5 = 8.25
∴ 𝑞𝑞3 = 14.75.

Question 3:

The final mark (𝑀𝑀) for a particular statistics course comprises of a 30% weighting for the
class record and a 70% weighting for the examination. A student believes that she is equally
likely to obtain a mark anywhere between 50% and 68% for her examination (𝐸𝐸).

a) Find the probability density function for her final mark (𝑀𝑀) if she has a class record of
45%.

The final mark 𝑀𝑀 can be written as 𝑀𝑀 = 0.3 × 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 + 0.7 × 𝐸𝐸, where 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 represents
the class record and the random variable 𝐸𝐸~𝑈𝑈(50, 68). We are told that the student
has a class record of 45%. Therefore, our equation becomes 𝑀𝑀 = 13.5 + 0.7 × 𝐸𝐸. We
have transformed the random variable 𝐸𝐸 and it can be shown that the probability
density function for the final mark (𝑀𝑀) will also have a uniform distribution. The
random variable 𝑀𝑀 will be uniformly distributed over the interval (48.5, 61.1). We
obtain the lower bound by plugging in 𝐸𝐸 = 50 into 𝑀𝑀 to obtain an expression for the
LB (lower bound) = 13.5 + 0.7 × 50 = 48.5. Similarly, we obtain the upper bound by
plugging in 𝐸𝐸 = 68 into 𝑀𝑀 to obtain UB (upper bound) = 13.5 + 0.7 × 68 = 61.1.
Therefore, we know that 𝑀𝑀~𝑈𝑈(48.5, 61.1). The pdf of our random variable 𝑀𝑀 can be
written as follows (using the functional form of the uniform distribution with 𝑎𝑎 = 48.5
and 𝑏𝑏 = 61.1):

5
𝑓𝑓(𝑚𝑚) = �63 for 48.5 ≤ 𝑚𝑚 ≤ 61.1
0 otherwise

4
 b) Find the probability that she gets a third-class pass (between 50% and 60%) as a final
mark.

We want to determine Pr(50 < 𝑀𝑀 < 60). This is achieved as follows:

60
60
5 5 5 50
Pr(50 < 𝑀𝑀 < 60) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑚𝑚� = [60 − 50] = = 0.794.
63 63 50 63 63
50

c) Find the probability that she gets a lower second (between 60% and 70% final mark).

We want to determine Pr(60 < 𝑀𝑀 < 61.1). Note that she cannot achieve a final mark
higher than 61.1%. This is achieved as follows:

61.1
61.1
5 5 5 11
Pr(60 < 𝑀𝑀 < 61.1) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑚𝑚� = [61.1 − 60] = = 0.087.
63 63 60 63 126
60

d) What is the probability that she fails (below 50% final mark)?

We want to determine Pr(𝑀𝑀 < 50). Note that she cannot achieve a final mark lower
than 48.5%. This is achieved as follows:

50
50
5 5 5 15 5
Pr(𝑀𝑀 < 50) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑚𝑚� = [50 − 48.5] = = = 0.119.
63 63 48.5 63 126 42
48.5
Question 4:

A child plays with a pair of scissors and a piece of string 20 cm long. He cuts the string into
two at a randomly chosen place.

a) What is the probability that the piece of string to the right of the pair of scissors is
more than 7cm long?

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 represent the length of the string to the right of the pair of
scissors. We do not want the random variable to be contained in the following interval:

𝑋𝑋
13cm

5
 If it is contained in this interval, then the piece of string to the right of the pair of
scissors will be less than 7cm long. We therefore need to calculate the following
probability: 1 − Pr(13 < 𝑋𝑋 < 20). We know that 𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝑈𝑈(0, 20). Therefore:

1
𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) = �20 for 0 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 20
0 otherwise

and:
20
1 1 20 1 7
Pr(13 < 𝑋𝑋 < 20) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑥𝑥� = [20 − 13] = = 0.35.
20 20 13 20 20
13

The probability that the piece of string to the right of the pair of scissors is more than
7 13
7cm long is therefore 1 − 20 = 20 = 0.65.

b) What is the probability that the shorter piece of string is less than 3cm long?

How will the shorter piece of string be less than 3cm long? It will be less than 3cm long
if a cut is made at a point less than 3cm or a cut is made at a point greater than 17cm:

𝑋𝑋 𝑋𝑋
3cm 17cm

We therefore want our random variable to be contained in these intervals shown

above. We need to calculate Pr(0 < 𝑋𝑋 < 3) + Pr(17 < 𝑋𝑋 < 20). This is achieved as
follows:
3
1 1 3 1 3
Pr(0 < 𝑋𝑋 < 3) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑥𝑥� = [3 − 0] = = 0.15.
20 20 0 20 20
0

20
1 1 20 1 3
Pr(17 < 𝑋𝑋 < 20) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑥𝑥� = [20 − 17] = = 0.15.
20 20 17 20 20
17

The probability that the shorter piece of string is less than 3cm long is therefore given
by 0.15 + 0.15 = 0.30.

6
Question 5:
1
Let 𝑊𝑊 ~ 𝑈𝑈(30, 𝑎𝑎). If we know that 𝑎𝑎 > 60 and we are given that Pr(𝑊𝑊 > 60) = 5, find 𝑎𝑎.

We know that 𝑊𝑊 is a uniformly distributed random variable. Therefore:

1
𝑓𝑓(𝑤𝑤) = �𝑎𝑎 − 30 for 30 ≤ 𝑤𝑤 ≤ 𝑎𝑎
0 otherwise

Pr(𝑊𝑊 > 60) is given by:

𝑎𝑎
𝑎𝑎
1 1 𝑎𝑎 − 60 1
Pr(𝑊𝑊 > 60) = � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑤𝑤� = = .
𝑎𝑎 − 30 𝑎𝑎 − 30 60 𝑎𝑎 − 30 5
60
Solving for 𝑎𝑎:

1 𝑎𝑎
𝑎𝑎 − 60 = (𝑎𝑎 − 30) = − 6
5 5
4
∴ 𝑎𝑎 = 54.
5
This means that 𝑎𝑎 = 67.5.

Question 6:

Between 08h00 and 09h00 buses leave the residence for the university at the following
numbers of minutes past 08h00: 00 03 05 07 10 12 15 30 37 45

a) Calculate the probability of having to wait less than 2 minutes for a bus, if you arrive
at the residence at a time Uniformly distributed over the interval 08h00 to 09h00.

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 represent the time of arrival (in minutes after 08h00). We
know that our random variable 𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝑈𝑈(0,60). Therefore:

1
𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) = �60 for 0 ≤ 𝑥𝑥 ≤ 60
0 otherwise

Pr(wait < 2min) = Pr(1 < 𝑋𝑋 < 7) + Pr(8 < 𝑋𝑋 < 12) + Pr(13 < 𝑋𝑋 < 15)
+ Pr(28 < 𝑋𝑋 < 30) + Pr(35 < 𝑋𝑋 < 37) + Pr(43 < 𝑋𝑋 < 45)
6 + 4 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 18
= = = 0.3.
60 60

We are considering all the intervals where we can arrive and wait less than 2 minutes
for a bus.

7
 b) If you make a habit of waking up haphazardly so that on each day of a given week
(Monday to Friday) your arrival pattern at the bus stop is the same as in (a), what is
the probability that you only spend three mornings having to wait more than 2 minutes
for a bus?

Let 𝑌𝑌 = the number of mornings (out of 5 possible mornings) on which you have to
wait more than 2 minutes for a bus. The probability that you have to wait more than
2 minutes for a bus is given by 1 − 0.3 = 0.7. This is a binomial process. We have 5
independent trials (the mornings), and each trial has two outcomes (either you have
to wait more than 2 minutes for a bus, or you don’t). Therefore, the probability mass
function for the random variable 𝑌𝑌 can be written as:

5
� � 𝑝𝑝 𝑦𝑦 (1 − 𝑝𝑝)5−𝑦𝑦 for 𝑦𝑦 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
𝑝𝑝(𝑦𝑦) = � 𝑦𝑦
0 otherwise

Where 𝑝𝑝 = 0.7. We can calculate Pr(𝑌𝑌 = 3) as follows:

5
Pr(𝑌𝑌 = 3) = � � × (0.7)3 × (0.3)2 = 0.3087.
3
Question 7:

A certain soccer team has developed a reputation for being quite consistent over many
seasons. In fact, it can be safely assumed that every time they play a match, they will win with
probability 𝑝𝑝 = 0.78. The team will play 15 matches in this year’s league competition. If all
outcomes are independent, what is the probability that they will win between 12 and all 15
of their matches (both values inclusive)?

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 = the number of matches (out of 15 possible matches) that the
soccer team will win. The probability that the soccer team will win any given match is given
by 𝑝𝑝 = 0.78. This is a binomial process. We have 15 independent trials (the matches), and
each trial has two outcomes (either you win the match, or you lose the match). Therefore,
the probability mass function for the random variable 𝑋𝑋 can be written as:

15 𝑥𝑥 15−𝑥𝑥
𝑝𝑝(𝑥𝑥) = � 𝑥𝑥 � (0.78) (0.22)
� for 𝑥𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, . . . , 15
0 otherwise

We want to determine Pr(12 ≤ 𝑋𝑋 ≤ 15). We have a discrete random variable and we can
sum up all of the probabilities. This is achieved as follows:

Pr(12 ≤ 𝑋𝑋 ≤ 15) = Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 12) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 13) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 14) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 15)
= 0.2457053831 + 0.2010316771 + 0.101821239 + 0.02406683832

8
 = 0.5726251375 ≈ 0.573.

The individual probabilities are determined as follows:

15
Pr[𝑋𝑋 = 12] = � � × (0.78)12 × (0.22)3 = 0.2457053831
12
15
Pr[𝑋𝑋 = 13] = � � × (0.78)13 × (0.22)2 = 0.2010316771
13
15
Pr[𝑋𝑋 = 14] = � � × (0.78)14 × (0.22)1 = 0.101821239
14
15
Pr[𝑋𝑋 = 15] = � � × (0.78)15 × (0.22)0 = 0.02406683832.
15
Question 8:

For the random variable described in each situation below, state whether the Binomial
distribution would provide a satisfactory model, giving your reasons. If it would, state the
values of 𝑛𝑛 and 𝑝𝑝.

a) The number of tosses required when a fair coin is tossed until you obtain 4 heads in
succession.

No, the Binomial distribution would not provide a satisfactory model as 𝑛𝑛 is not fixed.
The number of tosses is not fixed.

b) The number of fives obtained when four dice are thrown simultaneously.

Yes, the Binomial distribution would provide a satisfactory model. The parameters for
1
our model would be 𝑛𝑛 = 4 and 𝑝𝑝 = 6.

c) The number of ‘even numbers’ that appear in the winning lotto numbers in a given
draw.

No, the Binomial distribution would not provide a satisfactory model as 𝑝𝑝 does not
remain constant.

d) Shuffle a deck of cards. Turn over the top card. Put the card back in the deck, and
shuffle again. Repeat this process 15 times. Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 be the number
of aces that you observe.

Yes, the Binomial distribution would provide a satisfactory model. The parameters for
1
our model would be 𝑛𝑛 = 15 and 𝑝𝑝 = 13. “Success” = you get an ace. “Failure” = you
1
do not get an ace. The probability of success is therefore 13 as there are four aces in a
standard deck consisting of 52 cards. There are also 15 trials in this case.

9
 e) You have 5 urns labelled: A, B, C, D, E. Urns A, B and C contain balls numbered 1
through 10; urns D and E contain balls numbered 1 through 5. There are five trials. In
each trial, you draw a ball from an urn. In the first trial you draw from urn A, in the
second trial you draw from urn B, and so on. Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 be the number
of times you draw a ball that is numbered 5.

No, the Binomial distribution would not provide a satisfactory model as 𝑝𝑝 (the
probability of success) does not remain constant. In the first three trials (using urns A,
1
B and C), the probability of success is 10. In the next two trials (using urns D and E), the
1
probability of success changes to 5.

Question 9:

Suppose a Statistics lecturer at UCT uses the elevator in the P.D. Hahn building once a day
every day at work. The university administration assures this lecturer that they only have a 1
in 10 000 chance of being trapped in the elevator. If the Statistics lecturer works for 5 days a
week, 48 weeks per year for 25 years, what is the probability that:

a) The lecturer will never be trapped.

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 be the number of times that the Statistics lecturer gets
trapped. This is a binomial process. We have 𝑛𝑛 independent trials, and each trial has
two outcomes (either the lecturer is trapped, or the lecturer is not trapped). What is
𝑛𝑛? We can work out 𝑛𝑛 = 5 × 48 × 25 = 6000. What is 𝑝𝑝 (or the probability of being
1
trapped)? The probability of being trapped is 10 000 = 0.0001. Therefore:

6000 𝑥𝑥 6000−𝑥𝑥
𝑝𝑝(𝑥𝑥) = � 𝑥𝑥 � 𝑝𝑝 (1 − 𝑝𝑝)
� for 𝑥𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, . . . , 6000
0 otherwise

Where 𝑝𝑝 = 0.0001.

The probability that the lecturer is never trapped is given by Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 0):
6000
Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 0) = � � (0.0001)0 (1 − 0.0001)6000−0 = (0.9999)6000 = 0.549.
0
b) The lecturer will be trapped at least twice.

The probability that the lecturer will be trapped at least twice is given by Pr(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 2) =
1 − Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 2). Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 2) can be calculated as follows:

Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 2) = [Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 0) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 1)]

Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 0) = (0.9999)6000 = 0.549.

Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 1) = 6000 × (0.0001)1 × (0.9999)5999 = 0.329.

10
 ∴ Pr(𝑋𝑋 < 2) = 0.549 + 0.329 = 0.878.
So, we can conclude that the probability that the lecturer will be trapped at least
twice is 1 − 0.878 = 0.122.

Question 10:

You are playing a game with your friend. The game involves tossing a fair coin nine times. You
will win the game if you get at least 6 tails out of the 9 coin tosses. You think that it is too
difficult to get 6 tails or more out of the 9 coin tosses. Therefore, you suggest that you toss
another fair coin five times, and if you get at least 4 heads out of the 5 coin tosses you will
win the game. Which version of the game has a higher probability of you losing?

There are 9 independent trials for the first coin that you toss. You either get a head or you get
a tail for each trial. We therefore have 𝑛𝑛 = 9 and 𝑝𝑝 = 0.5. There are 5 independent trials for
the second coin. You again either get a head or you get a tail for each trial. We therefore have
𝑛𝑛 = 5 and 𝑝𝑝 = 0.5. We essentially have two random variables 𝑋𝑋 and 𝑌𝑌, where 𝑋𝑋 represents
the number of tails that you obtain out of the 9 coin tosses (of the first fair coin) and 𝑌𝑌
represents the number of heads that you obtain out of the 5 coin tosses (of the second fair
coin). We can write out the distributions for our two random variables as follows:

9 𝑥𝑥 9−𝑥𝑥
𝑝𝑝(𝑥𝑥) = � 𝑥𝑥� (0.5) (0.5)
� for 𝑥𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
0 otherwise

5
� � (0.5)𝑦𝑦 (0.5)5−𝑦𝑦 for 𝑦𝑦 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
𝑝𝑝(𝑦𝑦) = � 𝑦𝑦
0 otherwise

We will win the first version of the game if we get 6 or more tails out of the 9 coin tosses. We
will win the second version of the game if we get 4 or more heads out of the 5 coin tosses.
Our probability of winning is therefore given by:

Pr(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 6) for the first version of the game and Pr(𝑌𝑌 ≥ 4) for the second version of the game.

Pr(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 6) = Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 6) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 7) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 8) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 9)

21 9 9 1 65
= + + + = .
128 128 512 512 256

Pr(𝑌𝑌 ≥ 4) = Pr(𝑌𝑌 = 4) + Pr(𝑌𝑌 = 5)

5 1 3
= + = .
32 32 16

11
 65 191
The probability that you lose the first version of the game is therefore 1 − 256 = 256 = 0.746
3 13
and the probability that you lose the second version of the game is therefore 1 − 16 = 16 =
0.8125. The first version of the game has a lower probability of you losing.

Question 11:

Let 𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝐵𝐵(5, 𝑝𝑝) and let 𝑝𝑝 = Pr(𝑌𝑌 ≤ −3), where 𝑌𝑌 ~ 𝑈𝑈(−6,14). Calculate Pr(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 3).

We first need to work out the value of 𝑝𝑝. We are told that 𝑌𝑌 ~ 𝑈𝑈(−6, 14). Therefore:

1
for − 6 ≤ 𝑦𝑦 ≤ 14
𝑓𝑓(𝑦𝑦) = �14 − (−6)
0 otherwise

We want Pr(𝑌𝑌 ≤ −3), which is calculated as follows:

−3
1 1 −3 −3 − (−6) 3
Pr(𝑌𝑌 ≤ −3) = � 1 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑦𝑦� = = = 0.15.
20 20 −𝟔𝟔 20 20
−6

We now know that 𝑝𝑝 = 0.15. This implies that the distribution for our random variable 𝑋𝑋 can
be written as:

5 𝑥𝑥 5−𝑥𝑥
𝑝𝑝(𝑥𝑥) = ��𝑥𝑥 � (0.15) (0.85) for 𝑥𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
0 otherwise

We want the probability that our random variable 𝑋𝑋 takes on a value greater than or equal to
3. This means that we want Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 3) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 4) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 5). These probabilities can be
calculated as follows:

Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 3) = 10 × (0.15)3 × (0.85)2 = 0.024384375.

Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 4) = 5 × (0.15)4 × (0.85)1 = 0.0021515625.
Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 5) = 1 × (0.15)5 × (0.85)0 = 0.0000759375.

Therefore, Pr(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 3) = Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 3) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 4) + Pr(𝑋𝑋 = 5)

= 0.024384375 + 0.0021515625 + 0.0000759375

= 0.026611875 ≈ 0.027.

Question 12:

For each of the following scenarios, identify and clearly define the variable of interest and
give its distribution.

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a) A biased die with six sides has twice as much chance of landing on 1 or 6 as on 2, 3, 4
or 5. The die is tossed ten times and the number of 6’s observed.

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 represent the number of 6’s observed out of 10 die-
throwing trials. In this case each die toss is independent of the other. We have 10 fixed
trials and the outcome of one trial doesn’t influence that of any other. The probability
of observing the number 6 is the same for each die toss (or trial). We know we will
observe a 6 and a 1 twice as many times as we observe a 2, 3, 4 or 5. Let 𝑥𝑥 be the
probability of observing a 2, 3, 4 or 5. Therefore, the probability of observing a 1 is 2𝑥𝑥
and the probability of observing a 6 is 2𝑥𝑥. These probabilities need to sum to 1. We
have 8𝑥𝑥 = 1, which means that 𝑥𝑥 = 1/8 and the probability of observing a 6 is 1/4.
The distribution for our random variable 𝑋𝑋 can therefore be written as:

1
𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝐵𝐵 �10, �
4
b) You “borrow” someone else’s car, but you have no idea how much fuel is in the tank
since the fuel gauge is broken. The tank can hold 60 litres. You are wondering how far
you will be able to drive, given that you know the car’s fuel consumption is 6 km/litre.

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 represent the distance in km that you will be able to drive.
You know that the car uses 1 litre of fuel for every 6kms that you drive. The tank of
the car can hold a maximum of 60 litres. This means that you can drive a maximum of
6 × 60 = 360 km. You do not know how much fuel is in the tank which means you
will be able to drive anywhere between 0km and 360km. Our random variable can
therefore be expressed as follows:

𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝑈𝑈(0, 360)

c) Brian builds a basic robot that jumps a random distance between 2.5 and 5.5 metres.
He sets up a gap of 4 metres and is curious whether the robot will successfully jump
over the gap on its first attempt (consider the distance the robot will jump).

Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 represent the distance in metres that the robot will jump.
The robot can jump anywhere between 2.5 and 5.5 metres. It is equally likely for the
robot to jump any distance within that interval. Our random variable can therefore be
expressed as follows:

𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝑈𝑈(2.5, 5.5)

d) Suppose 3% of the cattle in a certain province have been infected with mad cow
disease. It has become known that a hundred random cows from this province have
turned up in Cape Town and the authorities are concerned about the number of cows
that may be infected.

13
Let the random variable 𝑋𝑋 represent the number of infected cows out of the hundred
found. We therefore have 100 independent trials. Each cow could either be infected
or they could not be infected. A cow is infected with probability 0.03. Whether one
cow is infected or not does not influence whether another cow is infected or not. The
distribution for our random variable 𝑋𝑋 can therefore be written as:

𝑋𝑋 ~ 𝐵𝐵(100, 0.03)

14