External actors and

European integration in the

Western Balkans

Wolfgang Petritsch
Philipp Freund
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans
W.B. 6:
- Albania
- Bosnia and
Herzegovina
- Kosovo*
- The Former
Yugoslav
Republic of
Macedonia
- Montenegro
- Serbia
* This designation is without
prejudice to positions on status,
and is in line with UNSCR
1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion
on the Kosovo declaration of Image: wikimedia commons
independence.
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

External Actors
- European Union
- United States of America
- Russia
- China
- Turkey
- Gulf States
- Saudi Arabia
- The United Arab Emirates
- Qatar
- Kuwait
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

Image: European Commission

External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

NATO in the Western Balkans

Image: Geopolitical Intelligence Services

External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans
Top trading partners of the W.B. 6 in 2017, total trade in goods:
Imports Exports Total trade

Partner Value % Partner Value % Partner Value %

Mio € World Mio € World Mio € World
World 41,614 100.0 World 23,751 100.0 World 65,365 100.0
EU 28 27,653 66.5 EU 28 19,905 83.8 EU 28 47,558 72.8
China 3,511 8.4 Russia 1,001 4.2 China 3,716 5.7
Turkey 2,224 5.3 Turkey 606 2.6 Russia 3,135 4.8
Russia 2,134 5.1 USA 339 1.4 Turkey 2,830 4.3
USA 857 2.1 Switzer 269 1.1 USA 1,195 1.8
land

World trade: excluding intra-region trade

Top partners: excluding region member states
Data: European Commission Directorate-General for Trade
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

RUSSIA
Russia’s interests in the region:
- Delaying Euro-Atlantic
integration, weakening the EU

Russian influence in the region:

- Traditional ties to Serbia
(cultural, religious, …) –
political influence in Serbia and
BiH/Republika Srpska
- Relatively insignificant trade
relations but strong impact
through energy dependency
(gas) in Serbia, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia
Image: European Council on Foreign Relations
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans
CHINA
China’s interests in the Region:
- Part of its larger One Belt, One Road geo-economic initiative designed to extend
Beijing’s global reach and alleviate domestic industrial overcapacities
- Gaining a political and economic foothold in current and future EU member
states through the 16+1 format

Chinese influence in the region:

- Cheap loans for transportation and energy projects free of political
conditionalities

Pros and Cons:

- Potential for economic dependency (debt-trap diplomacy); undermining
European rules and norms
- Investments in line with EU plans for infrastructure development
- Unlike Russia, no fundamentally adversarial relation to the EU
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

Turkey: Ottoman legacy in the Western Balkans

Ca. 20% of Albanians are non-Muslims Image: Stratfor

External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

The Gulf States – Islam and Business

- Arab World’s support of the Balkan Muslims during the
wars of the 1990’s and ever since
- Kosovo Albanian & Bosniak foreign fighters in Syria
- Gulf States’ investment drive in the region:
- Air Serbia – Serbia (UAE)
- Belgrade Waterfront – Serbia (UAE)
- Buroj Ozone City – BiH (UAE)
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

Summary
- EU economically & institutionally in the strongest position
- USA wielding considerable (albeit declining) influence
- Russia acting as spoiler against Euro-Atlantic
integration; important energy provider for FYROM,
Serbia and BiH
- China quickly expanding its via strategic investments
- Turkish influence largely restricted to Muslim-majority
areas (Ankara’s neo-Ottoman drive)
- Gulf states’ motivation between profits and The Prophet
External actors and European integration
in the Western Balkans

Recommendations
- Sustain engagement with the Western Balkans
- Extend access to EU funds
- Ensure compliance with EU regulations in Chinese and other
investments
- Engage with Russia to allay security concerns
- Utilize current dynamic and window of opportunity to resolve
last regional conflicts
- Offer credible accession prospects

1918-2018: Ending the Arch of Conflict