SHIFTING NATIONAL SECURITY PARADIGM OF PAKISTAN FROM GEO POLITICS

TO A GEO ECONOMICS ERA

1. Introduction. Geo-economic is the use of economic policy instruments to further

geopolitical, foreign policy and security objectives of a state. Traditionally, Pakistan’s
national security was analyzed through geopolitical and geostrategic perspectives but
with the primacy of economic factors; the geo-economic approach has taken the lead.
Uplifting majority of the population is also a prerequisite for national security. The shift
from geopolitics to geo-economics is relatively a new phenomenon for Pakistan that
urges us to deliberate beyond the classical geopolitical conception of global power
politics.
2. Aim. To analyze the Pakistan’s transition to geo-economics as main framework
of National Security with a view to recommend future policy options.
3. Conceptual Framework - Geo Economics as Main Strand of National Security.
Off late, economic power has emerged as one of the leading non-traditional challenge
to national security. As a foreign policy strategy, it refers to the application of economic
means of power by a state to realize its strategic objectives. Pakistan’s vision of
economic security is based on three core principles: connectivity; development
partnerships and socio-economic uplift; and peace within and beyond Pakistan’s
borders. The changed focus of Pakistan’s foreign policy is in line with the country’s
multiple domestic compulsions as well as the contemporary trends in international
relations.
4. Factors Leading to Pakistan’s Paradigm Shift towards Geo Economics
a. Economic rise of arch rival India and its prominence in international geo-
politics has provided huge diplomatic leverage on various key issues –
Annexation of IIOJ&K through Article 370 is a case in point.
b. China’s economic rise and BRI initiative provides an opportunity to
Pakistan to quit its conventional security paradigm and reshape narrative
of security, growth and development.
c. Economics is central to geo-politics as demonstrated by the actions of IFIs
as well as the FATF.
d. Economic security of Pakistan has become the foremost priority within the
 overall security calculus because a well-functioning, dynamic and robust
economy helps to bolster the other pillars of national security.
e. Contemporary trends of globalization, improving internal situation and
opportunities of inclusive growth and development offered by CPEC has
pushed civil - military leadership’s initiatives toward zero problem
neighborhood policy.
f. Rapid population growth, urbanization and industrialization has surged the
local demand viz-a-viz resource scarcity. Resultantly, geo-economics is
focused by Pakistan to address the vital issues of food, water, energy and
human security to avoid geo-political consequences.
5. Impediments in Embracing Geo Economic as Framework of National Security.
A detailed analysis (SWOT Model) of Geo Economics framework of Pakistan has been
carried out to draw pertinent conclusions:-
a. Strengths
(1) Our geographical location as a regional connectivity and trade hub
provides an opportunity to accrue the dividends of regional
economic and trade potential.
(2) Completion of Phase 1 of CPEC has significantly improved
domestic communication infrastructure linking ports, SEZs, energy
power plants and transit trade facilities.
(3) With relative peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan is likely to become a
transit trade destination for landlocked Central Asia, yet improving
internal security remains paramount.
(4) Successful conclusion of Free, Preferential and Transit Trade
agreements with CARs, Afghanistan and China boost prospects of
regional trade, commerce and industry.
(5) Strong domestic agricultural base and increasing global food
demands provide opportunities to improve value added export
base.
b. Weaknesses
(1) Bureaucratic hurdles, narrow tax base, limited infrastructure
 development and energy issues remain major setback to create an
investment friendly environment.
(2) The World Bank Doing Business 2020 report placed Pakistan at
108; thus, lagging far behind its South Asian neighbours.
(3) Pakistan’s success is also contingent upon its ability to make peace
with ‘Modi’s India and how seriously and sincerely India responds.
(4) Implementing the geo-economic policy could face serious issues if
current internal political and security situation continues.
(5) Pakistan’s industrial base is technologically backward, least diverse
and lacks skilled human resource.
(6) Despite sufficient electricity generation, its efficient management
and transmission in addition to increasing circular debts remains a
challenge.
c. Opportunities
(1) Strong presence of diaspora in US, Europe and ME affords greater
chances of business and economic growth.
(2) Normalization of ties with India remains a major step towards
realizing the shift from geopolitics to geo-economics which can
open 1.3 billion strong market for Pakistan’s struggling economy.
(3) Perhaps also realising that a thaw with India would open new doors
for Pakistan, the army chief noted that “stable Indo-Pak relation is a
key to unlock the potential of South and Central Asia by ensuring
connectivity between East and West Asia”. He indicated Pakistan’s
desire to “bury the past and move forward” towards resumption of
dialogue with India.
(4) Improved domestic security landscape and relative peace in
Afghanistan provide an opportunity the reap the benefits of regional
connectivity.
d. Threats
(1) Realizing the geo-economics paradigm depends on continuity and
transparency of political institutions.
 (2) 25% of Pakistan’s population lives in extreme poverty, this is the
biggest threat to Pakistan’s national security.
(3) Economic prosperity of Pakistan is conditional with peace and
stability in Afghanistan and that is the real hard task ahead.
(4) Despite making substantial progress, Pakistan remains on the
FATF grey list with huge financial implications.
(5) Presence of extremist tendencies in our society dent our aspiration
of a progressive, tolerant and civilised societal outlook essential for
sustainable economic development.
(6) Frequent cyberattacks on the financial sector increase the
vulnerability of economic security.
(7) Pakistan remains susceptible to climate change with huge
economic costs in the form of floods, lower yields, water scarcity
and lower worker productivity due to harsh environmental
conditions.
(8) Any future conflict between US and China would have ramifications
for Pakistan and CPEC. Staying neutral and sticking to geo-
economic objectives would be an immense challenge by itself.
(9) US withdrawal means its least dependency on regional players;
thus, chances of economic cooperation with Pakistan seems
diminished.
6. Key Takeaways for Pakistan to Realize Geo Economic Shift
a. Continuity, inclusivity and transparency in policy making political
institutions is a fundamental step for national cohesion and nation building.
b. Pakistan has huge stakes in peaceful and stable Afghanistan to capitalize
on geostrategic location and boost regional trade, connectivity and
economic development.
c. Pakistan needs to overcome its bureaucratic inertia, public-sector
corruption and energy crisis to create an investment friendly environment.
In absence of these, Pakistan’s grand schemes like CPEC would only
serve as transit routes and provide limited benefit.
 d. The success in geo-economics depends on Pakistan’s efficiency to
translate CPEC based investment opportunities into concrete economic
accomplishments to lift its depressed economy.
e. Pakistan has to modernize its economy based on technology and artificial
intelligence to make footprint in global value added chain.
f. Regional cooperation and peace are important to tackle human security
challenges including climate change, food shortage and water scarcity.
g. Law fare, trade embargos and sanctions are becoming more targeted to
cause greater damage than ever before.
h. Implementation of geo-economics strategies requires reforms in taxation,
elimination of informal businesses to attract FDI.
i. Pakistan looks eager to pursue a policy of detente to normalize its
troubled relations with India with pre-conditions.
j. Another important outcome is Pakistan visibly decoupling its relationship
with China and positioning itself as a neutral country to avoid getting
sucked into the broader US- China rivalry.
7. Policy Guidelines for Harnessing Geo Economics as Frame Work of National
Security. Having analyzed the Geo-Economic Framework of Pakistan’s National
Security, following is proffered a policy guidelines:-
a. Diplomacy
(1) Pakistan must opt for economic development and decide alliances
in accordance with its economic benefits to pursue its geo-
economic policies.
(2) Government should get the Pakistani diaspora onboard and
encourage their involvement in the economy.
(3)
b. Information
(1)
c. Military
(1) Presence of extremist tendencies should be mitigated through a
chain of reforms in society overall. A progressive, tolerant and
 civilised societal behaviour can lead the country towards
sustainable economic development.
d. Economic
(1) Creating low-cost framework conditions for unfolding its industrial
strength, funding private research and investing in innovation, and
maintaining the high level of skilled labour education.
(2) Greater clean energy production from solar and wind resources will
give industrial competitivenes.
(3) Pakistan is one of the most susceptible countries to climate
change, which has huge economic costs in the form of floods; lower
farm productivity due to water scarcity; and lower worker
productivity due to harsh environmental conditions. To mitigate
these risks Pakistan should take steps to ensure food security for a
fastgrowing population; invest in resilient agriculture; water
management practices; and effective management of ground water.
8. Conclusion