Mainstreet Poll Analysis

August 27, 2021

Tracking Poll Results

The national lead opened up by the Conservatives last night has turned into a daunting
advantage nationwide, which may mark the last chance the Liberals have of shoring up
their vote before it becomes no longer possible to do so. The Conservatives now lead
the Liberals Canada-wide by 8 points, 37% to 29%. In most cases, this would be
considered the doorstep to a majority victory, were it not for the relative inefficiency of
the surging Conservative vote. This situation has arisen as the Liberals have lost two
points since last night, and the Conservatives have gained 6 points. The NDP claim a
one fifth share of the national vote (20%), steady since last night. The Greens (3%) and
the PPC (5%) each claim a twentieth of the vote or less. The seat projection has shifted
towards the Conservatives as a result of their improved poll numbers, with the LIberals
down to 138 seats from 145, and the Conservatives actually steady from yesterday at
137 seats, one fewer than the Liberals. The fact that a vote share with an 8-point
advantage can result in a slim loss on seats is an indicator of the inefficiency of the
Conservative vote, where increasing numbers of Conservatives in safe ridings say they
will vote Conservative. Still, today the Liberals could fashion a government with a one
seat advantage, with the support of the NDP.

While the Conservative vote has slipped 3 points in Atlantic Canada (from 32% to 29%),
the region can no longer be seen as a Liberal safe haven, and the Conservatives may
pick up a Liberal seat here in addition to the 4 they hold. The NDP are up slightly (from
21% to 24%) as are the Greens (7%), with the possibility of a second Green seat here
(Fredricton), while the PPC is not a factor (3%).

In Quebec, the plot thickens, as the Liberal lead is cut by 6 points (from 35% to 29%),
and the Conservatives' vote count is stable at 24% (from 24%). The NDP vote,
however, is up 4 to 15%, from 11%. The combination of these two blows has left
Quebec an unsafe haven for Liberals. While the Island of Montreal remains relatively
strongly Liberal, The Conservatives will pick up a seat to add to those they already have
in the province, while the NDP look to take one seat from the Bloc (Berthier-
Maskinonge). The Greens (2%) do not compete in Quebec, nor does the PPC (1%).

In Heartland Ontario, where close elections are won and lost, the Liberals maintain a
very slight lead over the Conservatives (35% to 34%), and this represents relative
stability since last night. The NDP vote is also stable at 22%, while the Greens (2%) do
not really compete. The PPC has a small but significant voter stronghold here (6%, up
from 5% last night). We may see as many as 5 seats picked up here by the
Conservatives and as many as 3 new seats for the NDP.
In the two prairie provinces, the inefficient Conservative vote keeps piling up (62%, up
from 58% yesterday), without significantly adding seats (one Conservative pick up,
possibly). The NDP are in second place here (17%), stable from last night. The Liberals
have just over a tenth of the vote (12%), well down from 17% last night. While the
Greens do not figure (2%), the PPC have their, by-now prevailing twentieth of the vote
(6%). The Conservatives may pick up a Liberal seat in Winnipeg (Winnipeg South), but
all the seats in Saskatchewan are already blue.

Alberta is another example of the inefficiency of the western Conservative vote, in that
the Conservatives lead dominantly (59%), a strength which produces no more seats
than are already held there. The Liberals DO hold 2nd place at 22% (down from 24%
yesterday), but this will not translate into more seats in the province. The NDP has just
one tenth of the vote here (10%), and the Greens do not compete (3%). The PPC,
however, draw the same twentieth of the vote (6%) as they do from Ontario west. The
Liberals may pick up two former Conservative seats in Edmonton (Edmonton Centre
and Edmonton-Mill Woods). Calgary is now solid blue and likely to stay that way.
Outside the two cities, Conservatives prevail.

BC is proving to be a significant problem for the struggling Liberals. The Conservative

lead continues to grow daily (34% to 40 % to 42% over the last three days), while the
Liberal vote count is shrinking (from 24% to 21% since last night). The second place
NDP is relatively steady at 28% of the electorate. The Green vote has been decreasing
here, in its birthplace, for days (7% to 4% to 2%) although the party is projected to hold
its seat in Saanich, while the PPC keeps their twentieth of the vote (6%). The
conservatives are likely at this point to pick up as many as 6 seats in Vancouver and the
surrounding area, including Jody Raybould-Wilson's former seat of Granville, and the
NDP seat of Nanimo. However, any more growth in the Conservative vote in BC is likely
to be inefficient and occur mostly in Interior and Lower Mainland seats they already
have.
Analysis

- Quebec is no longer a safe Liberal stronghold, due to the surging Bloc vote.

- Any chance the Liberals have of ekeing out even a minority win in this election now
rest squarely on Toronto and the surrounding suburbs.

- While the Conservatives lead by 8 points, they score only the same number of seats
as the Liberals, because of their prevailing vote inefficiency in the west.

- Atlantic Canada, once the Liberal fortress, is now too volatile to be depended on as in
the past.

- BC, which was always a region where the Liberals could hope to be handed some
legacy seats, is now starting to act like the three Western provinces, where
Conservative dominance eventually leads to huge, inefficient leads.

- The Bloc surge has led the Liberals to the very edge of defeat in their former
homeland of Quebec, and this the entire story of the disastrous turn this election has
taken for the Liberals.

- This is a last stand position for the Liberal party. They can no longer afford to slip in
the vote anywhere, nor lose one more seat and have any hope of forming government.

- Still, the Liberals' only hopes lie in the existing inefficiency of the western vote, and the
growing inefficiency of the BC Conservative vote. They must count on any new
Conservative support coming in ridings the Conservatives already hold.

With an 8-point lead in the polls, the Conservatives are tied with Liberals in the seat
count. Just one or two more Conservative pick-ups will seal the Liberal government's
fate, however.

Justin Trudeau may consider spending less time campaigning in public. His best night in
the polls was the day he took off.

John Corbett
johnc@mainstreetresearch.ca
(416) 702 5582

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