Mainstreet Poll Analysis

September 12, 2021

Tracking Poll Results:

Canada stands poised on the brink of an historic decision point, one that has not quite
yet been reached, when the turnaround in Liberal fortunes results in a clear seat count
in Liberal favour, and the popular vote starts to break against the Conservatives and
NDP and sees the Liberals (and the Bloc) increase their score. The logical endpoint is a
Liberal majority government, a point we have yet to reach.

The movement in Canada since last night is an improvement in the Bloc vote in Quebec
(from 32% to 34%), balanced by a slight dip for the Liberals (to 33%). Conservatives are
relatively stable (19%), as are the NDP (8%). The Greens are running a very small
Quebec campaign (2%) and the PCC is not as prominent here as it is elsewhere.

The move amongst Bloc supporters is thought to be sequelae of the disastrous English-
language debate, where the moderator listed off a load of unfounded characteristics of
Quebec and Quebeckers which instantly put her in the enemy camp to most Quebec
respondents. Whether or not this a permanent change or simply an unfortunate
consequence of the uncontrollable urge to lash out against deep insult, is something we
will know better tomorrow.

The seat count hasn't moved a great deal since last night, with the Liberals at 164, just
6Liberal seats shy of a genuine majority, while the Conservatives have lost two (107),
The Bloc (37) and the NDP (27%) fall in roughly the same range, while the Greens will
take 3 seats.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead strongly (45%) to the Conservatives (25%), while
the NDP score a fifth of the vote (20%). The PPC have 6%, and the Greens 4%.

In Quebec, we see the Bloc rise (from 32% last night to 34% tonight, while the Liberals
drop a commensurate measure (36% to 33%), while the Conservatives are going to fail
harder than they expect (19%). The NDP are a third ranking force to file (8%), along
with Green party (2%) and the PPC (3%).

In vote rich Ontario, the Liberals have a substantial lead in the popular vote on the
Conservatives (38% to 30%), the NDP are in third (19%), while the Greens 4%) lag well
behind the PPC (10%). It is thought the PPC is especially active in rural Southwestern
and Eastern Ontario.

In the prairies, the Conservatives are down to 36%, while the PPC has grown to 15%.
The Liberals are also at 15%, while the NDP do well at 26% and the Greens have 5%.
It is here we start to see the direct relationship between the increase in the PPC vote
and the decline of the corollary Conservative vote.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have their highest score (46%), while the PPC do as well
as they do in the prairies (15%). The Liberals have a quarter of the Alberta vote (24%),
the Greens have 3% and the NDP limp in with 11%.

The other story in tonight's edition of the tracking poll, is BC. The province has seen its
weekend vote share go from 27% to 25% for the Conservatives, while the NDP take
27%, the Greens and the PPC each take 7 points.

Nationally, there is a real gender gap for women voting for Conservatives (just 23% will
vote Conservative, while as many as 37% will vote Liberal.

Analysis:

- The Liberal majority has not quite yet materialized, but it is in the cards.

- The Conservatives have started to feel the effects of the PPC, and their vote share
dropping across the country

- The recent increase in the Bloc vote is unlikely to remain where it is, and we should
see the Liberals pick up seats in Quebec during the last week of the campaign.

- The continued depredations of the PPC into the core Conservative vote will contribute
strongly to a Liberal majority, should it develop.

- From this point in the campaign, the success of the parties in individual ridings will be
predicated entirely on ground game and GOTV.

- While the vote pattern will remain fluid, we have probably arrived at the l shape of the
final vote, and with no more new information or learning points, vote shifts should be
minimal from now to election day.

- Only minimal vote shifts will be required to substantially change the shape of the
Ontario vote, which, in turn, will determine the scope of the election.

John Cornett
Vi3 President
Mainstreet Research
(416) 702 5582

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