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VI. THE FOREIGN-EXCHANGE TRADING PROCESS THE ROLE OF THE IMF IN THE GLOBAL
o When a company sells goods or services to a foreign customer o An important responsibility of the IMF is:
and receives foreign currency, it needs to convert it into - To monitor and assess vulnerabilities of the economic and
domestic currency. When importing, the company needs to financial policies of member countries in relation to domestic
convert domestic to foreign currency to pay the foreign and global stability.
supplier. This conversion usually takes place between the
company and its bank. II. EXCHANGE-RATE ARRANGEMENTS
Three choices:
VII. HOW COMPANIES USE FOREIGN EXCHANGE o HARD PEG – Two (2) possibilities for countries that adopt a hard
o Companies enter the foreign-exchange market to facilitate peg:
their regular business transactions and/or to speculate. (1) Dollarization – can occur when a country like Zimbabwe or
o Their treasury departments are responsible for establishing Ecuador does not have its own currency but has adopted the
policies for trading currency and for managing banking U.S. dollar as its currency.
relationships to make the trades. (2) Currency Board – which is separate from a country’s central
bank. It is responsible for issuing domestic currency, typically
anchored to a foreign currency. If it does not have deposits - PPP would suggest that the exchange rate should leave
on hand in foreign currency, it cannot issue more domestic hamburgers costing the same in the US as abroad.
currency. - However, the Big Mac sometimes costs more and
o SOFT PEG sometimes less, demonstrating how far currencies are
Conventional fixed-peg arrangement, whereby a country under-or overvalued against the dollar.
pegs its currency to another currency or basket of currencies
o EXCHANGE RATES AND INTEREST RATES
and allows the exchange rate to vary plus or minus 1 percent
- Short term components, exchange rates are strongly influenced
from that value.
by interest rates.
o FLOATING ARRANGEMENT
- Long term components, there is a strong relationship between
Floating currencies are those that generally change according
inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates.
to market forces but may be subject to market intervention
with no predetermined direction in which the currency o OTHER FACTORS IN EXCHANGE-RATE DETERMINATION
should move. Confidence: Flight to Risk Versus Flight to Safety
THE EURO – resulted in countries giving up their own - Exchange-rate movements are also influenced by investors’
currency to create a new one due to economic integration appetite for risk versus their appetite for safety.
envisaged in the Single European Act, the EU nations signed
the Treaty of Maastricht in 1992, which set steps to IV. FORECASTING EXCHANGE-RATE MOVEMENTS
accomplish two goals: political union and monetary union.
To replace each national currency with a single European o FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL FORECASTING
currency, the countries first had to converge their economic Fundamental forecasting uses trends in economic variables to
policies. predict future exchange rates
Technical forecasting uses past trends in exchange-rate
III. DETERMINING EXCHANGE RATES movements to spot future trends.
A lot of different factors cause exchange rates to adjust. Managers need to be concerned with the timing, magnitude, and
Currencies change in different ways depending on the type of direction of an exchange-rate movement.
regime: o FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS TO MONITOR
o NONINTERVENTION: CURRENCY IN FLOATING-RATE WORLD For freely fluctuating currencies, the law of supply and demand
- Currencies that float free respond to supply and demand determines market value. Your ability to forecast exchange rates
conditions. depends on your time horizon.
- Demand for a country’s currency is a function of the demand In general, the best predictors of future exchange rates are:
for that country’s goods and services and financial assets. - Interest rates for the short-term movements,
- Under a market-determined exchange rate framework, the BSP - Inflation for medium-term movements, and
does not set the foreign exchange rate but instead allows the - Current account balances for long-term movements (the
value of peso to be determined by the supply of and demand statement of all transactions made between one country and
of foreign exchange. another)
o INTERVENTION: CURRENCY IN A FIXED-RATE OR MANAGED Key factors to monitor:
FLOATING-RATE WORLD - Institutional setting
The Role of Central Banks - Fundamental
- Each country has a central bank responsible for the policies - Analysis
affecting the value of its currency, although countries with - Confidence factors
independent currency boards use them to control the - Events (circumstances), and
currency value. - Technical analysis