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ECON 314:

MACROECONOMICS II
THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
Main Texts

•Dornbusch, R., S. Fischer and R. Startz (2011).


th
Macroeconomics, 11 Edition, Irwin McGraw-Hill.

•Mankiw, N.G. (2013). Macroeconomics, 8th Edition,


Worth Publishers

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Essential Background Reading

•Government Budget.

•The Measurement of the Budget Deficit

•The Problems with the Measurement of the


Budget Deficit
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
Motivation
•Why do we have government?
•What does government do?
•What is the impact of government?
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
What Government Does!

•If altruistic, then motivated to produce public


goods.
•Related to that is ensuring fairness

•Addressing inequality through redistribution


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FISCAL POLICY
•The important aspects of government
actions can be represented under fiscal
policy.

•Fiscal Policy can be seen in many respects


and can have important consequences.
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FISCAL POLICY
•A few things to know about fiscal policy.

•Countries (governments) are in for the long-


term.

•Need not balance their books (𝐺𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦 ≠


𝑇𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦 ).
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FISCAL POLICY
•Fiscal policy therefore has intertemporal
dimensions too.
•Thus, to understand fiscal policy, we
incorporate the present value of income
stream into the analysis.
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•The consumption function as we now know,
goes beyond the simple Keynesian version.

•We think of the consumption function as:


𝑫
𝑪 = 𝒄(𝒀 , 𝑾)
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒕𝒚
𝑾= 𝑾 +𝑾
𝑻
𝑫 𝑫
𝒀𝒕+𝒊 − 𝑻𝒕+𝒊
𝒀 = 𝑷𝑽 𝒀 =෍ 𝒊
(𝟏 + 𝒓)
𝒊=𝟎
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•What about the Government Sector?
•We can think of the government undertaking
an exogenous amount of expenditure, 𝑮𝑻
and 𝑮𝑻+𝟏 .
•The government (like the household) faces
two flow budget constraints:
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
𝑮𝑻 ≤ 𝑻𝑻 + 𝑩𝑻
𝑮𝑻+𝟏 + 𝒓𝑩𝑻 ≤ 𝑻𝑻+𝟏 + 𝑩𝑻+𝟏 − 𝑩𝑻
•𝑩𝑻 is the stock of debt issued by the government
in T carried into T+1.

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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•Government can finance its current spending by
raising taxes (𝑻𝑻 ) or issuing debt (𝑩𝑻 ), with initial
debt (𝑩𝑻−𝟏 = 𝟎).

•This is the same in the next period, except


government is faced with interest expense on
debt (𝒓𝑩𝑻 ).
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•Intertemporal Budget Constraint is given by:
𝑻𝑻+𝟏 𝑮𝑻+𝟏
𝑻𝑻 + = 𝑮𝑻 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)
•Conceptually, same as the household’s; that of the
Government must balance in an intertemporal
present value sense, not period-by-period.
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•The Household again; preferences are modelled as:
𝑼 = 𝒖 𝑪𝑻 + 𝜷𝒖 𝑪𝑻+𝟏 + 𝒉 𝑮𝑻 + 𝜷𝒉(𝑮𝑻+𝟏 )
•Household obtains utility from government
spending, although we can ignore this part without
loss of understanding.

•Households budget constraint is given by:


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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
𝑪𝑻 + 𝑺𝑻 ≤ 𝒀𝑻 − 𝑻𝑻
𝑪𝑻+𝟏 + 𝑺𝑻+𝟏 − 𝑺𝑻 ≤ 𝒀𝑻+𝟏 − 𝑻𝑻+𝟏 +𝒓𝑺𝑻

•Household takes 𝑻𝑻 and 𝑻𝑻+𝟏 as given, and


with 𝑺𝑻+𝟏 = 0, the household’s IBC is given
by:
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
𝑪𝑻+𝟏 𝒀𝑻+𝟏 − 𝑻𝑻+𝟏
𝑪𝑻 + = 𝒀𝑻 − 𝑻𝑻 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)
•This can be re-written as:
𝑪𝑻+𝟏 𝒀𝑻+𝟏 𝑻𝑻+𝟏
𝑪𝑻 + = 𝒀𝑻 + − 𝑻𝑻 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)

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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•But since PV(Tt) must equal PV(Gt) then:
𝑪𝑻+𝟏 𝒀𝑻+𝟏 𝑮𝑻+𝟏
𝑪𝑻 + = 𝒀𝑻 + − 𝑮𝑻 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)

•From the household’s perspective, knowing that


the government’s IBC must hold, we can get:
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
𝑪𝑻+𝟏 𝒀𝑻+𝟏 − 𝑮𝑻+𝟏
𝑪𝑻 + = 𝒀𝑻 − 𝑮𝑻 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)
• From the household’s perspective, it is as though 𝑻𝑻 = 𝑮𝑻
and 𝑻𝑻+𝟏 = 𝑮𝑻+𝟏

• This means that the consumption function (derived


qualitatively via indifference curves and budget lines) does
not depend on Tt or Tt +1.
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•The consumption function now becomes:
𝒅
𝑪𝑻 = 𝑪 (𝒀𝑻 − 𝑮𝑻 , 𝒀𝑻+𝟏 − 𝑮𝑻+𝟏 , 𝒓𝑻 )
•All the household cares about when making
its consumption/saving decision is the
present discounted value of the stream of
income
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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•Therefore, a cut in taxes, not met by a
change in spending, means that future taxes
must go up by an amount equal in present
value.

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THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
• How does fiscal policy affect consumption?
• The link is between consumption and wealth.

• Consumption depends on wealth, and this helps us


understand how fiscal policy affects consumption and thus
output.

• To see how, recall the Intertemporal Budget Constraints


and how the government finances its spending.
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•We limit ourselves to only two periods:
•For the government:
𝑻𝟐 𝑮𝟐
𝑻𝟏 + = 𝑮𝟏 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)

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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•For the household (assuming W = 0):
𝑪𝟐 (𝒀𝟐 − 𝑻𝟐 )
𝑪𝟏 + = (𝒀𝟏 −𝑻𝟏 ) +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)
•Suppose that households realize that the
government is subject to an intertemporal
budget constraint.
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•We can consider two cases of financing G:
1. The government budget is balanced in
each period: 𝑇1 = 𝐺1 𝑇2 = 𝐺2 then;
𝑪𝟐 (𝒀𝟐 − 𝑻𝟐 )
𝑪𝟏 + = (𝒀𝟏 −𝑻𝟏 ) +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
𝑪𝟐 (𝒀𝟐 − 𝑻𝟐 )
𝑪𝟏 + = (𝒀𝟏 −𝑻𝟏 ) +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)

(𝒀𝟐 − 𝑮𝟐 )
= 𝒀𝟏 − 𝑮 𝟏 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓)
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•Now consider the second scenario:
• 𝑇1 = 0 , 𝐺1 = 𝐵 𝑇2 = 𝐺2 + 𝐵(1 + 𝑟)
•By substituting, we still get:
𝑪𝟐 (𝒀𝟐 − 𝑮𝟐 )
𝑪𝟏 + = (𝒀𝟏 −𝑮𝟏 ) +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
𝑪𝟐 (𝒀𝟐 − 𝑻𝟐 )
𝑪𝟏 + = (𝒀𝟏 −𝑻𝟏 ) +
(𝟏 + 𝒓) (𝟏 + 𝒓)

(𝒀𝟐 − 𝑮𝟐 )
= 𝒀𝟏 − 𝑮 𝟏 +
(𝟏 + 𝒓)
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•From the first and second scenarios, we see
that they way the government finances a
given level of spending makes no difference.
𝐺2
•All that matters is 𝑃𝑉 𝐺 = 𝐺1 +
(1+𝑟)

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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•This result is known as Ricardian Equivalence,
named after its first proponent, David Ricardo.

•In its modern rendition, this idea is attributed to


Robert Barro.

•Hence, the term Barro-Ricardo Equivalence is


used in more advanced analysis.
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•This result is known as Ricardian Equivalence.
•According to Ricardo it makes no differences
whether government finances its expenditure
through current taxes or to issue government
bonds with infinite maturity and annual
interest payment in all following years
financed by future taxes
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•In other words, a tax cut financed by
government debt does not reduce the tax
burden; it merely reschedules it.

•This should therefore not encourage


consumers to spend more.

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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•The implication of Ricardian equivalence is
that a debt-financed tax cut leaves
consumption unaffected.

•Households save the extra disposable income


to pay the future tax liability that the tax cut
implies.
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•This increase in private saving exactly offsets
the decrease in public saving.
•National saving—the sum of private and
public saving—remains the same.
•The tax cut therefore has none of the effects
that the traditional analysis predicts.
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The Irrelevance of Fiscal Policy
•Why the Ricardian view might not hold?

•Myopia
•Borrowing constraints
•Future generations

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GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT
AND DEBT
•The next part of the lecture looks at the
relationship between the government budget
deficit and the debt, as well as the implications
of mounting debt.

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