BDS4614, MANAGEMENT DECISION SCIENCE

Tutorial 6

1. Roy is doing his project in final year of his study. He must complete the project within nine months. He
has identified several activities. He has also determined the time requirements (in terms of weeks) and
the immediate predecessors of the activities are given in the table below.

Activit Immediate Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

y Predecessors
A - 1 3 5
B - 7 10 13
C - 5 7 9
D A 3 5 7
E D 2 4 6
F B, E 3 6 9
G B, C, E 5 9 13
H F 5 4 12
I G 3 5 7
J H, I 3 6 9

a. Draw the project network.

b. Determine the critical path and the expected project completion time. Compute the earliest start time,
latest start time, earliest finish time, latest finish time and slack time for each activity.
c. Calculate the variance in the expected completion time for the project.
d. What is the probability that Roy’s project will be completed within nine months? (Assume that a
month has four weeks)

2. An architect is in the process of building a bungalow. Some of the information on the activities is shown
in the following table:

Days
Activity Description Optimistic Most Pessimistic Immediate
likely Predecessors
A Bonding, insurance, tax 20 30 40 ---
structuring
B Foundation, concrete footing 20 65 80 A
C Upgrading balcony 50 60 100 A
D Upgrading walkways, stairwells 30 50 100 C
E Interior wiring, lathes 25 30 35 B
F Inspection approvals 1 1 1 E
G Plumbing 25 30 35 D, E
H Painting 10 20 30 G
I Hardware/air conditioning/metal 20 25 60 H
workings
J Tile/carpeting/windows 8 10 12 H
K Inspection 1 1 1 J
L Final detail work/cleanup 20 25 60 I, K

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BDS4614, MANAGEMENT DECISION SCIENCE

a. Construct a network for this problem.

b. Determine the expected time and variance for each activity.
c. Determine ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack for each activity.
d. Determine the critical path and project completion time.
e. Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 270 days or less.

3. Sunmatec Corporation has undertaken a project that involves twelve main activities. For easy reference,
the activities are named A to L. The management team has identified the immediate predecessor
activity/activities and the most likely time of completion for each activity. Besides the most likely time,
the optimistic and pessimistic times for completion are also obtained for each activity. The information
summary is given in the table below:

Activity Immediate Time (weeks)

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A - 13 18 20
B - 8 9 10
C A 4 6 7
D B 10 14 18
E C 10 13 14
F E 6 8 9
G C 12 14 16
H D, F, G 6 8 10
I E 9 10 11
J H 4 5 7
K I, J 4 6 8
L K 3 8 13

a. Draw a network diagram to represent the project.

b. Compute the expected time and the variance for each activity time.
c. Determine the critical path.
d. Obtain the expected completion time for the project.
e. Calculate the variance in the expected completion time for the project.
f. What is the probability that the project can be completed within 68 weeks?

4. The director of continuing education at a University has just approved the planning for a sales-training
seminar. Her administrative assistant has identified the various activities that must be done and their
relationships to each other. Because of the uncertainty in planning the new course, the assistant has also
supplied the following time estimates for each activity.

Activity Immediate Time (days)

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A - 5 7 8
B - 6 8 12
C - 3 4 5
D A 11 17 25
E B 8 10 12
F C,E 3 4 5
G D 4 8 9

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BDS4614, MANAGEMENT DECISION SCIENCE

H F 5 7 9
I G,H 8 11 17
J G 4 4 4

a. Draw a network diagram to represent the project.

b. Compute the expected time and the variance for each activity time.
c. Determine the critical path.
d. Obtain the expected completion time for the project.
e. Calculate the variance in the expected completion time for the project.
f. The director wants to conduct the seminar 47 working days from now. What is the probability that
everything will be ready in time?

5. Primera Development has undertaken a civil project that involves eleven main activities as given below.
The project management team has identified the immediate predecessor activity/activities and has
assessed the completion of each activity under optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic time estimates.
The details are given in the table below:

Activity Immediate Completion Time (weeks)

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A - 8 13 18
B - 6 8 10
C A 2 4 6
D B 8 11 14
E C 7 10 13
F E 4 6 8
G C 4 12 20
H D, F, G 4 6 8
I E 6 9 12
J H 3 4 5
K I, J 2 4 6

a) Calculate the mean and the variance completion time (in weeks) for each activity.
b) Draw a network diagram to represent the project based on the expected or mean duration time.
c) What is the expected completion time for the project and the associated critical path?
d) Calculate the project variance.

6. Jackson distributes a variety of food products that are sold through grocery store and supermarket. The
management has decided to automate the warehouse operation by installing a computer-controlled
order-picking system, along with a conveyor system for moving goods from storage to the warehouse
shipping area. The director compiled a list of activities and the time estimates associated with the
project.

Activity Immediate Time (weeks)

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A - 4 6 8
B - 6 8 16
C A,B 2 4 6
D C 8 10 24

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E C 7 10 13
F E 4 6 8
G C 4 6 20
H D, F, G 4 6 8
I D,F 4 6 14
J H 3 4 5
K I, J 2 4 6

a) Draw a network diagram to represent the project.

b) Compute the expected time and the variance for each activity time.
c) Determine the critical path.
d) Obtain the expected completion time for the project.
e) Calculate the variance in the expected completion time for the project.
f) What is the probability that the project can be completed within 40 weeks?