Running Head: MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.

Module 7 Activity 7.6

Problems: Chapter 12

Bill B. Cohen

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

MGMT 524 Management Science

December 7, 2014
MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 1

Q12-15 The following are the activity times for the project in Problem 12-14. Find

the earliest, latest, and slack times for each activity. Then find the critical path.

ACTIVITY TIME (DAYS)

A 3
B 7
C 4
D 2
E 5
F 6
G 3

Below reflects the network diagram for this project:

F G
Finish

Start
A C

B D

With the EF formula below, the earliest time t (in days) for each activity can be

determined:

= +

Given that ES is the earliest start time an activity can begin without violation of

immediate predecessor requirements and (t) is the expected activity time. Similarly, the

latest start time (LS) for each activity can be calculated through via:

LF reflects the latest finish time or the smallest of the latest start times and the slack is

calculated via the formula below with the following results:

MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 2

= =

Activity A: EF = 0, EF = 3, LS = 2, LF = 5 with a slack of 2 days.

Activity B: EF = 0, EF = 7, LS = 0, LF = 7 with no slack.

Activity C: EF = 3, EF = 7, LS = 5, LF = 9 with a slack of 2 days.

Activity D: EF = 7, EF = 9, LS = 7, LF = 9 with no slack.

Activity E: EF = 9, EF = 14, LS = 9, LF = 14 with no slack.

Activity F: EF = 3, EF = 9, LS = 8, LF = 14 with a slack of 5 days.

Activity G: EF = 14, EF = 17, LS = 14, LF = 17 with no slack.

Activities B, D, E, and G are on the critical path since they have no slack time.

Q12-19 Tom Schriber, a director of personnel of Management Resources, Inc., is in

the process of designing a program that its customers can use in the job-finding

process. Some of the activities include preparing resumes, writing letters, making

appointments to see prospective employers, researching companies and industries,

and so on. Some of the information on the activities is shown in the following table:

DAYS
IMMEDIATE
ACTIVITY a m b PREDECESSORS
A 8 10 12
B 6 7 9
C 3 3 4
D 10 20 30 A
E 6 7 8 C
F 9 10 11 B, D, E
G 6 7 10 B, D, E
H 14 15 16 F
I 10 11 13 F
J 6 7 8 G, H
K 4 7 8 I, J
L 1 2 4 G, H
MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 3

a. Construct a network for this problem.

I
A D

F K
Start B

H
C

E G
J

L Finish

b. Determine the expected time and variance for each activity.

The expected time (t) for each activity is calculated using the beta distribution weights

formula below:

+ 4 +
=
6

Given that (a) is the optimistic time, b is the pessimistic time, and m is the most realistic

estimated time to complete the activity. In addition, the variance is also calculated via:

2
= ( )
6

Given that a in the equations represents the optimistic time, and b is the pessimistic time.

The expected times (rounded to a full day) and variances for each activity are:
MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 4

EXPECTED
EXPECTED
ACTIVITY VARIANCE TIME
TIME
ROUNDED
A 10.00 0.44 10.00
B 7.17 0.25 8.00
C 3.17 0.03 4.00
D 20.00 11.11 20.00
E 7.00 0.11 7.00
F 10.00 0.11 10.00
G 7.33 0.44 8.00
H 15.00 0.11 15.00
I 11.17 0.25 12.00
J 7.00 0.11 7.00
K 6.67 0.44 7.00
L 2.17 0.25 3.00

c. Determine ES, EF, LS, LF and slack for each activity.

The earliest finish time (EF) for each activity is calculated via:

= +

Given that expected activity time (t) and the earliest start time an activity can begin

without violation of immediate predecessor requirements (ES), the latest start time (LS)

for each activity is calculated through the use of the following formula:

With LF as the latest finish time or the smallest of the latest start times to finish an

activity, the slack can be calculated via the formula below with the following results:

= =

Activity A: EF = 0, EF = 10, LS = 0, LF = 10 with no slack.

Activity B: EF = 0, EF = 8, LS = 22, LF = 30 with a slack of 22 days.

Activity C: EF = 0, EF = 4, LS = 19, LF = 23 with a slack of 19 days.

Activity D: EF = 10, EF = 30, LS = 10, LF = 30 with no slack.

MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 5

Activity E: EF = 4, EF = 11, LS = 23, LF = 30 with a slack of 19 days.

Activity F: EF = 30, EF = 40, LS = 30, LF = 40 with no slack.

Activity G: EF = 30, EF = 38, LS = 47, LF = 55 with a slack of 17 days.

Activity H: EF = 40, EF = 55, LS = 40, LF = 55 with no slack.

Activity I: EF = 40, EF = 52, LS = 50, LF = 62 with a slack of 10 days.

Activity J: EF = 55, EF = 62, LS = 55, LF = 62 with no slack.

Activity K: EF = 62, EF = 69, LS = 62, LF = 69 with no slack.

Activity L: EF = 55, EF = 58, LS = 66, LF = 69 with no slack.

d. Determine the critical path and project completion time.

The critical paths for the projects schedule are activities A, D, F, H, J, K, and L because

they reflect no slack time. Therefore, the completion time is approximated to 69 days.

e. Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 70 days or less.

The project variance must be calculated by averaging the variances of each activity in

order to determine the probability that the project will be finished in 70 days or less. The

project variance is calculated to be 1.14. To calculate the projects standard deviation, the

square root of the average variance results in 1.06. Assuming normal distribution, the

number of standard deviations the due date lies from the expected date is calculated via:

=
()

70 69
= = 0.9433
1.06
MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 6

Using the normal distribution table as a reference, we identify a probability of 82.38%

that the project will be finished in 70 days or less.

f. Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 80 days or less.

Taking into assumption that the values for standard deviation and expected date of

completion stay the same:

80 69
= = 10.3774
1.06

Since 10.3774 is outside the normal distribution table, there is a 100% chance that the

project will be completed in 80 days or less.

g. Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 90 days or less.

Again, assuming that the values for the standard deviation and expected date of

completion remain the same, Z is calculated as:

90 69
= = 19.8113
1.06

Since 19.8113 falls outside the normal distribution table, there is a 100% chance that the

project will be completed in 90 days or less.

Q12-21 The air pollution project discussed in the chapter has progressed over the

past several weeks, and it is now the end of week 8. Lester Harky would like to know

the value of the work completed the amount of any cost overruns or underruns for

the project, and the extent to which the project is ahead of or behind by developing

a table like Table 12.8. The revised cost figures are shown in the following table:
 MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 7

PERCENT OF ACTUAL
ACTIVITY
COMPLETION COST
A 100 $20,000.00
B 100 $36,000.00
C 100 $26,000.00
D 100 $44,000.00
E 50 $25,000.00
F 60 $15,000.00
G 10 $5,000.00
H 10 $1,000.00

Taking into assumption that the total budgeted costs for each activity are the same, the

updated values of work completed are calculated using the following formula:

= ( ) ( )

The activity differences are also determined and represented in results below:

TOTAL VALUE OF
PERCENT OF ACTUAL ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY BUDGETED COMPLETED
COMPLETION COST DIFFERENCE
COST WORK
A $22,000.00 100 $22,000.00 $20,000.00 $(2,000.00)
B $30,000.00 100 $30,000.00 $36,000.00 $6,000.00
C $26,000.00 100 $26,000.00 $26,000.00 $--
D $48,000.00 100 $48,000.00 $44,000.00 $(4,000.00)
E $56,000.00 50 $28,000.00 $25,000.00 $(3,000.00)
F $30,000.00 60 $18,000.00 $15,000.00 $(3,000.00)
G $80,000.00 10 $8,000.00 $5,000.00 $(3,000.00)
H $16,000.00 10 $1,600.00 $1,000.00 $(600.00)
TOTAL $181,600.00 $172,000.00 $(9,600.00)

In comparison to the previous data in which the project did not progress as much, there

were more overruns per activity than the current state. While only activity B reflects an

overrun of $6,000 in the actual state, the only activity that met its budget is activity C.

The remaining activities have underruns for a total project underrun of $9,600.
MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 8

Q12-31 The managing partner of the Scott Corey accounting firm (see problem 12-

30) has decided the system must be up and running in 16 weeks. Consequently,

information about crashing the project was put together and is shown in the

following table:

NORMAL CRASH
IMMEDIATE NORMAL CRASH
ACTIVITY TIME TIME
PREDECESSORS COST COST
(WEEKS) (WEEKS)
A 3 2 $8,000.00 $9,800.00
B 4 3 $9,000.00 $10,000.00
C A 6 4 $12,000.00 $15,000.00
D B 2 1 $15,000.00 $15,500.00
E A 5 3 $5,000.00 $8,700.00
F C 2 1 $7,500.00 $9,000.00
G D, E 4 2 $8,000.00 $9,400.00
H F, G 5 3 $5,000.00 $6,600.00

a. If the project is to be finished in 16 weeks, which activity or activities should be

crashed to do this at the least additional cost? What is the total cost of this?

The critical path activities for the project are A, E, G, and H and the crash cost per time

period is calculated via:

CRASH
CRASH
COST
ACTIVITY COST/TIME CRITICAL?
PER
PERIOD
WEEK
A 1800 3600 YES
B 1000 3000 NO
C 1500 6000 NO
D 500 500 NO
E 1850 5550 YES
F 1500 1500 NO
G 700 1400 YES
H 800 2400 YES
MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 9

Since activity G reflects the lowest crash cost per week of $700 to meet the new goal of

16 weeks, activity G will be used to crash the project by one week. Therefore, the total

cost of crashing activity G will be $700.

b. List all the paths in this network. After the crashing in part a. has been done, what

is the time required for each path? If the project completion time must be another

week so that the total time is 15 weeks, which activity or activities should be

crashed? Solve this by inspection. Note that it is sometimes better to crash an

activity that is not the least cost for crashing if it is on several paths rather than to

crash several activities on separate paths when there is more than one critical path.

The paths in this network are as follows:

C F H

Start
A
E G

Finish
B D

Upon the crashing in part A, the following results will be reached:

Activity A will require 3 weeks to complete

Activity B will require 4 weeks to complete

Activity C will require 6 weeks to complete

Activity D will require 2 weeks to complete

Activity E will require 5 weeks to complete

MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 10

Activity F will require 2 weeks to complete

Activity G will require 3 weeks to complete

Activity H will require 5 weeks to complete.

In conclusion, if the project has to be crashed again to finish it in 15 weeks, then activity H

should be crashed by a week in addition to activity G for the purpose of providing the

shortest possible activity time regardless of the fact that this activity is not lowest in cost.
MODULE 7 ACTIVITY 7.6 11

References:

Render, B., Stair, R., and Hanna, M., (2012). Quantitative analysis for management (11th Ed).
Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.