1.

To find the probability that a particular choice will be made by none, one, two, or three of the
managers, we need to use the concept of the binomial distribution.
Let's denote:
n = number of managers = 200
p = probability of a manager making the particular choice = 1/1000 = 0.001 (assuming all choices are
equally likely)
q = probability of a manager not making the particular choice = 1 - p = 1 - 0.001 = 0.999
The probability mass function (PMF) of the binomial distribution is given by:
P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * q^(n-k)
where X is the random variable representing the number of managers making the particular choice, k is
the number of managers (0, 1, 2, or 3), and C(n, k) is the binomial coefficient given by C(n, k) = n! / (k! *
(n-k)!)
Let's calculate the probabilities for each case:
For k = 0: P(X = 0) = C(200, 0) * (0.001)^0 * (0.999)^(200-0) = 1 * 1 * 0.999^200 ≈ 0.819
For k = 1: P(X = 1) = C(200, 1) * (0.001)^1 * (0.999)^(200-1) = 200 * 0.001 * 0.999^199 ≈ 0.164
For k = 2: P(X = 2) = C(200, 2) * (0.001)^2 * (0.999)^(200-2) = 19900 * 0.001^2 * 0.999^198 ≈ 0.014
For k = 3: P(X = 3) = C(200, 3) * (0.001)^3 * (0.999)^(200-3) = 1313400 * 0.001^3 * 0.999^197 ≈ 0.001
Therefore, the probabilities are approximately: P(X = 0) ≈ 0.819 (81.9%) P(X = 1) ≈ 0.164 (16.4%) P(X = 2) ≈
0.014 (1.4%) P(X = 3) ≈ 0.001 (0.1%)
2. To find the probability of exactly three outages in a year, we can use the Poisson distribution, given
the mean number of outages per year is four (λ = 4).
The probability mass function (PMF) of the Poisson distribution is given by:
P(X = k) = (e^(-λ) * λ^k) / k!
where X is the random variable representing the number of outages, k is the number of outages (3),
and λ is the mean number of outages per year (4).
Let's calculate the probability:
P(X = 3) = (e^(-4) * 4^3) / 3! ≈ (0.01832 * 64) / 6 ≈ 0.1939
Therefore, the probability of exactly three outages in a year is approximately 0.1939 or 19.39%.