A different approach to investing in developing countries.

- Forty years ago, the concept of emerging markets entered global investing.
The aim had been to offer diversified exposure to fast-growing countries
outside the rich world. Since then emerging and developing countries have,
in aggregate, gained economic and corporate clout. But the vast disparities
between them makes lumping them all into a single category increasingly
odd =>a new framework for investing outside of the rich world.
- In the early 1980s emerging and developing countries made up about 25% of
global GDP (according to the IMF) and today they account for about 40%
and more than 20% of total global market capitalisation. . The market cap of
the MSCI emerging-markets index has risen by 13 times.
- However, countries’ economic situations very different. Consider
the MSCI emerging-markets index: the income per person of countries
(1988) were $1,123 in Thailand and $7,598 in Greece. In 2019 the range was
over four times that, stretching from India’s $2,100 to South Korea’s
$31,846. 
- Several approaches were given:
Organising by geography 

Segmenting countries by income but income levels alone do not

say much about a country’s prospects.
 
Organising by their growth models.
+ First group: familiar big emerging economies, as well as to
the edgier, “frontier” markets  such as Bangladesh and
Vietnam. 
+ Second group: countries that rely instead on services-led
growth, with all the promise of healthy middle-class
consumption, India and Indonesia are possible candidates
+Third group : commodity exporters, such as Brazil, Russia
and South Africa.
- Such a taxonomy is far from perfect. Growth models can change over time,
for a start. Just think of China, which is seeking to become more
consumption-led. Time to experiment.
 The Japan International Co-operation Agency (JICA)
to continue supporting Việt Nam’s development: Chief
Representative
- - In the first half of the fiscal year 2021 (from April 1, 2020, to September
30, 2021):
- + JICA has focused on technical and financial cooperation and
consolidating friendship between Việt Nam and Japan.
- + JICA implemented 168 projects in Việt Nam including Official
Development Assistance (ODA) loans, technical assistance, non-refundable
aid, development partnership programmes and volunteer exchange
programmes.
- + JICA also implemented infrastructure improvement projects, human
resource development projects and market-oriented economy institutions, as
well as more traditional assistance in agriculture, climate change, green
growth and environmental improvement.
- + In May 2021, JICA lent $25 million to develop an on-land wind
power plant with a capacity of 144MW in the central province of Quảng Trị
- + In healthcare, JICA helped Việt Nam improve healthcare service
quality and medical facilities in hospitals. Japan has given Việt Nam more
than four million doses of COVID-19 vaccines and donated 158.6 billion to
Việt Nam’s fund for vaccination.   
- - Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, JICA’s Chief Representative
in Việt Nam said that JICA would continue to provide assistance in COVID-
19 prevention and control measures, as well as economic development. For
the post-COVID-19 economic recovery, it is important to further develop
infrastructure and human resources. 
- - He added that as well as projects that increase Việt Nam’s connections to
the rest of the world, JICA would also pay attention to improving local
transport, for example fixing degraded bridges on national highways.

- - During the 2020 fiscal year, Japan committed over VNĐ10 trillion in

loans to Việt Nam, technical assistance worth VNĐ874 billion and non-
refundable aid of VNĐ427 billion. More than 100 Japan’s projects were
conducted in Việt Nam during the fiscal year.
Viet Nam likely to achieve rice export target this year

- Việt Nam is expected to achieve its rice export target of 6.3 million tonnes
worth US$3.2 billion this year due to high global demand and an increase in
export prices.
- Statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs showed the
country exported 593,600 tonnes of rice in September, worth over $293.1
million, increasing by 19 per cent in volume and 20.5 per cent in value
compared to last year’s figures.
- Việt Nam shipped abroad 4.57 million tonnes of rice worth over $2.41
billion during the nine-month period, a drop of 8.3 per cent in volume and
1.2 per cent in value year-on-year.

- The export prices of Việt Nam’s 5-per cent broken rice soared to the highest
level over the past three months, surpassing that of other competitors such as
Thailand, India and Pakistan. Specifically, the prices of Vietnamese rice
were $49, $68 and $55 higher than that of Thailand, India and Pakistan,
respectively.

- “The rice export has resumed since September despite the fact that social
distancing is still being applied in many southern provinces and cities,” said
Nguyễn Quốc Toản.
- The increase in the Vietnamese rice export prices to the fact that the
Government has boosted its purchase for national reserves, along with the
rising demand in the global market since the beginning of September.
- China’s energy of crunch is hitting factories hard

The world’s biggest energy consumer is running out of power. China’s factory activity
shrinks in September. China’s energy crunch is triggering blackouts, forcing factories to
cut production, overturning people’s daily lives and threatening to slow the world’s
second largest economy.It could see nothing because the power is cut from everything.
Only when vehicles drove past, you could see the lights on. The power cuts are across
northeastern China and parts of the South. Because of it all, a personal storm of factories,
the global economy emerges from the pandemic, increasing use of China’s electricity-
hungry factories, sending energy prices skyrocketing. Since the prices are regulated in
China, some power companies are losing money and hesitant to reduce production. China
is trying to meet its ambitous climate goals to bring climate emissions to a peak by 2030,
and net zero by 2060. Most problems in China when there is a shortage of power, they
ration the entries first, so it doesn’t affect residential users. But residents are talking to
social media to complain. The power supply challenges aren’t unique to China, it is partly
a problem of managing the low carbon energy tranmission at a time when the power is
picking up after the pandemic. We’ll see the same challenges in other parts of the world.
China’s energy crisis is a sign of what the world is reckoning with in its bumpy transition
to clean energy.
1. Shiba coin, a meme cryptocurrency, hits all-time high

The parody cryptocurrency shiba inu coin just climbed to an all-time high and is one of
the biggest digital currencies by market value. Shiba coin, which appears to be inspired
by dogecoin, itself a meme currency, is up more than 40% over the last seven days,
according to CoinGecko. The website ranks the coin as the 11th biggest
cryptocurrency.The token has gained more than 45 million percent in the past year, the
site indicated. It later fell about 10% from its all-time high after Tesla CEO Elon
Musk, who is a big fan of dogecoin, tweeted that he does not own any shiba coin.
Like another quirky digital currency Dogecoin, Shiba coin features the Shiba Inu dog as
its mascot. Its meteoric rise has made some investors millionaires overnight. The coin has
also won a handful of celebrity backers, from former boy band stars to pro athletes.
Earlier this year, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin made headlines by donating $1
billion worth of shiba coin to a Covid-19 relief fund in India.

Nguồn: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/25/business/shiba-inu-coin-price-soars-hnk-intl/
index.html

Viet Nam to build nine new railways by 2030

Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh has signed a decision approving the railway
system plan for 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050, which sets a target of building nine
new railways by 2030. They will have a total length of 2,362km. The railway industry
will renovate and upgrade existing railways, connect with international transport routes;
prepare capital and resources to start construction on new routes, with priority given to
North-South high-speed ones and those linking gateway seaports, international airports,
and main railways in major cities. The total capital needed for both upgrading and
building railways will be around VNĐ 240 trillion. By 2030, the volume of goods
transported is expected to reach 11.8 million tonnes, accounting for about 0.27 per
cent of the market share, and the number of transported passengers will reach 460
million, accounting for a market share of about 4.40 per cent. In order to fulfil the targets,
the decision also put forward key measures and policies, including building and issuing
mechanisms to encourage, support and create favourable conditions for domestic and
foreign individuals and organisations to invest in railway transport. Other measures
include reducing environmental pollution caused by railway transport activities,
particularly in treating wastewater and industrial waste.
Nguồn: https://vietnamnews.vn/society/1065587/viet-nam-to-build-nine-new-railways-
by-2030.html
SUPPLY CHAIN BACKLOG WEIGHS ON US ECONOMIC GROWTH
This summer, the American economic recovery hit a roadblock.

The US economy grew at an annualized rate of only 2% in the third quarter, the Bureau
of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday.

The highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus, supply chain chaos, worker

shortages, sluggish jobs numbers and higher prices weighed on economic activity.

It was far lower than the 2.7% that economists had predicted and the slowest pace of
growth since the start of the recovery, as well as a massive step down from the 6.7%
rate in the spring.

Aside from the monumental downturn in the first half of 2020, when the economy
ground to a halt amid lockdowns, it was also the worst quarterly performance since
the final quarter of 2019, when GDP grew at a pace of 1.9%.

However, consumer confidence has recovered and Covid cases are no longer at the
alarming highs seen in the third quarter.

Economists believe this is a good sign for the final quarter of the year.

Ryanair returns to profit as demand surges, mulls exit from LSE

Ryanair Holdings Plc. posted its first quarterly profit since the start of the Covid-19
pandemic and said it expects a strong winter as a recovery in short-haul travel gathers
pace. Ryanair achieved a positive net result of 225 million euros ($260 million) in the
three months through Sept. 30, it said in a statement Monday, predicting that demand
will stay strong through the usual European low season. The Dublin-based group is
considering delisting from the London Stock Exchange. Europe’s biggest discount carrier
has used its financial clout to expand in markets ranging from Italy, Austria and Portugal
to Scandinavia and the Baltic states as most rivals take a more cautious approach to the
budding rebound. The Irish firm said it expects to post a loss for the year through March
as it uses fare cuts to spur sales. Ryanair said its considering exiting the LSE amid a
material decline in share volumes in the wake of the Brexit split from the European
Union. Recent bookings have been spurred by the further easing of travel restrictions in
Britain, Ryanair’s biggest market, unleashing a jump in business for the October half-
term holidays and lifting second-quarter occupancy levels above 80%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-01/ryanair-returns-to-profit-as-
demand-surges-mulls-exit-from-lse?srnd=markets-vp

China rations energy to cope with power shortages

China is dealing with an energy crisis whole thing disruptions across the country.
Business and residents are being asked to limited their use of electricity, as the country
faces shortages. Some factories reportedly been forced to cut production, due to the
new measures.

There are starting to see more and more news reports on social media, and the impacts
on the daily livelihood, and it is in the sales of candles, that are skyrocketing, in many
places. The crisis is the result of a perfect storm. On the demand side, it is electricity
because of the country’s export driven, industry driven, economic recovery, after the
pandemic. It is power hungry. On the supply side, we have many power plants,
generating less power and the price of the commodity, and it is geopolitical tensions,
and it is also happening at a time when local officials are rushing to the reduction gold
because president Jean paying, now, has made this a top priority, in terms of the
country’s carbon emissions, peaking before the year 2030

World food prices are up 30% in a year

World food prices have surged to the highest level in more than a decade, driven by robust
demand and lackluster harvests, according to the United Nations.

Prices increased for the third consecutive month in October, rising 3% over September,
according to an index published by FAO. The gains were driven by a sharp rise in vegetable oil
and wheat prices.

It now stands at its highest level since July 2011, the FAO said on Thursday.

The price of wheat surged 5% in October because of reduced harvests from major exporters
including Canada, Russia and the United States.Firmer prices for palm, soy, sunflower and
rapeseed oils led to a 9.6% increase in the FAO vegetable price index.

The FAO cited high global demand for a range of products such as milk powder, poultry,
vegetable oils and barley.
Food supplies and prices are under pressure from extreme weather, snarled supply chains,
worker shortages and rising costs.

China's economy is getting a boost from exports but it's

not in the clear yet
Chinese exports surged 27% in October from a year earlier, according to customs statistics
released by Chinese authorities on Sunday. That's a shade softer than September's 28% year-on-
year growth, but better than analysts were expecting.

The strong export figures lifted China's trade surplus to a record $84.5 billion in October.

Analysts suspect China's exports were bolstered by strengthening global demand as the world
continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, along with retailers stocking up for the
holiday shopping season.

The total amount the country keeps in reserve increased to more than $3.2 trillion in October, the
first increase since July, according to data from China's State Administration of Foreign
Exchange on Sunday.

The agency said in a statement that despite recurring Covid-19 outbreaks and "fluctuations in the
international financial market," China's economy "continues to recover, with strong resilience
and big potential."

China's power crunch may be getting better, but the real estate slowdown and an ongoing Covid-
19 outbreak in the country look set to slow growth, according to economists at Oxford
Economics. Strong exports should help "mitigate the weakening domestic economy," said
Zhiwei Zhang. He added that the Chinese government "can afford to wait till the year end to
loosen monetary and fiscal policies, now that exports provide a buffer to smooth the economic
slowdown," Zhang said.

China’s energy of crunch is hitting factories hard

The world’s biggest energy consumer is running out of power. China’s factory activity shrinks in
September. China’s energy crunch is triggering blackouts, forcing factories to cut production,
overturning people’s daily lives and threatening to slow the world’s second largest economy.It
could see nothing because the power is cut from everything. Only when vehicles drove past, you
could see the lights on. The power cuts are across northeastern China and parts of the South.
Because of it all, a personal storm of factories, the global economy emerges from the pandemic,
increasing use of China’s electricity- hungry factories, sending energy prices skyrocketing. Since
the prices are regulated in China, some power companies are losing money and hesitant to reduce
production. China is trying to meet its ambitous climate goals to bring climate emissions to a
peak by 2030, and net zero by 2060. Most problems in China when there is a shortage of power,
they ration the entries first, so it doesn’t affect residential users. But residents are talking to
social media to complain. The power supply challenges aren’t unique to China, it is partly a
problem of managing the low carbon energy tranmission at a time when the power is picking up
after the pandemic. We’ll see the same challenges in other parts of the world. China’s energy
crisis is a sign of what the world is reckoning with in its bumpy transition to clean energy.

Japan to give children under 19 $880 cash handout

As part of a covid-19-related stimulus package, Japan's government is planning to
give ¥100,000 ($880) to all children under the age of 19. Around 20 million children,
from newborns to 18-year-olds, will receive the one-time payment.
The initiative is part of an election pledge from Japan's newly-elected Prime Minister.
During campaigning, he vowed to help "people in need," such as part-time workers
and families with small children.
All children in any one family will receive the cash. The plan is expected to cost
around ¥2 trillion ($17.6 billion).

The stimulus package is not without its critics. Many people have reservations about
splurging so much money when Japan is burdened with so much debt. The country's
debt is currently more than twice the size of its economy.
Government sources argue the cash is available for the pandemic stimulus because of
a surplus of funds from fiscal 2020. Skeptics are questioning the plan's logic. They
said most recipients would not be going out to purchase high-cost items, dine in
upmarket restaurants or take domestic holidays..
https://breakingnewsenglish.com/2111/211108-cash-handout-l.html
India to launch $1.35 trillion infrastructure plan

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined plans for spending $1.35 trillion on
infrastructure at an Independence Day speech on August the 15th.
The huge investment will focus on the economy, youth employment opportunities, and on
ways to tackle climate change. Modi hopes the gargantuan injection of cash will provide
a boost to the economy. He said the spending plans will "create job opportunities for
hundreds of thousands of young people" and help local manufacturers to become
"globally competitive," and develop new "economic zones" in India.

Mr Modi focused on plans to make India a carbon-neutral country. He gave his speech as
part of India's 75th Independence Day celebrations. He vowed that before India turned
100, the country would be "energy independent". Modi pledged to invest more in
sustainable resources such as solar technology and "green hydrogen". He said he wants
the whole network to be a net-zero carbon emitter by 2030. Modi said his country is
moving fast towards achieving its climate goals.
https://breakingnewsenglish.com/2108/210818-india-infrastructure-l.html

Global timber shortage increases house prices

A shortage of timber worldwide is causing a dearth in supply and major problems for the
housing and construction industry. The decrease in the availability of timber has caused a
sharp spike in the prices of newly built homes around the world. One of the reasons
builders are struggling to get supplies is because people have been repairing or reforming
their homes during lockdown. Another reason is that post-lockdown construction and
additional DIY projects have created "extraordinary demand".

Environmental scientists assert that a major reason for the shortage is climate change.
Global warming is increasing the pressure on the sustainability of forests. An increase in
the number of wildfires is causing great damage to large swathes of forest.

The warmer weather has also caused a proliferation in the number of pests that cause
damage to trees and stunt tree growth. Sweden, which supplies almost half of the wood
used in the UK, has recorded its lowest timber stocks for 20 years.

U.N. warns of 'colossal' collapse of Afghan banking

system
The United Nations on Monday pushed for urgent action to prop up Afghanistan's
banks, warning that a spike in people who are unable to repay loans as well as lower
deposits and a cash liquidity crunch could cause the financial system to collapse
within months.
"Afghanistan's financial and bank payment systems are in disarray. The bank-run
problem must be resolved quickly to improve Afghanistan's limited production
capacity and prevent the banking system from collapsing," the UNDP report said.
Finding a way to avert a collapse is complicated by international and unilateral
sanctions on Taliban leaders.
The UNDP's proposals to save the banking system include a deposit insurance
scheme, measures to ensure adequate liquidity for short- and medium-term needs, as
well as credit guarantees and loan repayment delay options.
The UNDP report said that with current trends and withdrawal restrictions, about 40%
of Afghanistan's deposit base will be lost by the end of the year. It said banks have
stopped extending new credit, and that non-performing loans had almost doubled to
57% in September from the end of 2020.
"Afghanistan last year imported about $7 billion worth of goods and products and
services, mostly foodstuff ... If there is no trade finance the interruption is huge," he
said. "Without the banking system, none of this can happen."
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/22/investing/un-afghanistan-banking-collapse/
index.html
Not just the supply chain: Going green is hiking prices,
too
President Biden and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell are committed to fighting
inflation. But the two may face an uphill battle bringing consumer prices down due to
a factor that many experts may not be pricing into the economic picture: the rise of
ESG investing.
Investors have increasingly been looking to back companies that support sustainable
environmental, social and governance practices. But some may be ignoring the impact
the so-called "greenification" of the global economy is having on inflation, according
to a recent report by Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global
Investors, an asset management firm. She called the phenomenon "en-flation."
Shah said that the increased focus by big businesses and governments on cleaner
environmental policies could be inflationary in the short-term. "We will see more
central banks consider climate change, and I suspect the Fed will do so, too. The green
movement is not going away."
So what is it about "going green" that could be a problem on the inflation front?
For one, Shah noted that higher costs for carbon credits, or permits that companies can
buy to offset emissions, could potentially get passed on to consumers.
She also pointed out that more businesses will potentially need to pay penalties if they
don't meet UN climate targets, something that also could lead companies to raise
prices in order to preserve profit margins

Businesses may also face higher costs for labor, capital spending and other expenses
associated with the transition to a more eco-friendly business model, Shah said.

Covid surge threatens Europe's economic recovery

So far, the new Covid-19 wave is having only a limited impact on business activity in
the 19 countries that use the euro. The Purchasing Managers' Index from IHS Markit,
a key gauge of the economy, rose in November after slipping to a six-month low in
October, according to data released Tuesday.
But expectations for the future are darkening. Austria announced last week that
it's going back into a national lockdown. Skyrocketing infections in Germany have
also sparked questions about whether the region's largest economy could reimpose
sweeping restrictions.
Consumer confidence in the euro zone fell "markedly" in November, according to the
European Commission. IHS Markit reported that companies' expectations this month
for future economic output "deteriorated to the lowest since January."
Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Europe economist at Bank of America, said more data is
needed to assess what restrictions in Europe could mean for the region's economy. He
noted that with each wave of Covid-19 infections, the economic impact has declined
as businesses and consumers learn to cope.
Europe was hit particularly hard by the pandemic in 2020. Economic output fell by
6.3% in the euro zone compared to a 3.4% decline in the United States.
But the region has rebounded in recent months as vaccination rates have jumped.
Gross domestic product in the euro zone rose 2.2% between July and September
compared to the previous quarter.