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Growth & Determinants of Fertilizer Consumption in India: Application of

Demand and Supply Side Models

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Economic Affairs, Vol. 66, No. 3, pp. 419-425, September 2021
DOI: 10.46852/0424-2513.3.2021.9

Research Paper

Growth & Determinants of Fertilizer Consumption in India:

Application of Demand and Supply Side Models
Vilas Jadhav1* and Ramappa, K.B.2
1
Agricultural Development and Rural Transformation Centre [ADRTC], Institute for Social and Economic Change [ISEC],
Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
2
School of Agribusiness and Rural Management, Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agriculture University [RPCAU] Pusa, Bihar, India
*Corresponding authr: vilasagri@gmail.com (ORCID ID: 0000-0002-2364-2706)

Received: 13-06-2021 Revised: 22-08-2021 Accepted: 03-09-2021

Abstract
This paper estimated the growth of fertilizer consumption in India and forecasted it upto the year 2030 and
both supply side and demand side factors which influences it. The results indicated that consumption of
fertilizers had been increased at the rate of 4.16 per cent. The demand side determinants like area under
irrigation reflected at the rate of 1.42 per cent growth, average minimum support prices showed a growth
rate of 7 per cent and a short term institutional credit registered a growth rate of 17 per cent. Area under
irrigation and sum of average MSP encourages the fertilizer consumption substantially. The supply side
factors viz., production, import and subsidy were influencing the fertilizer consumption significantly.
The total fertilizer demand is expected to reach at 57 million tons by 2030 and at the same time, rate of
consumption might enhanced to 277 kg per hectare. It is concluded that import is unavoidable to meet
the gap between domestic production and total demand.

Highlights
mm Total fertilizer consumption increased at the rate of 4.16 per cent during past and the demand is likely
to grow upto 57 million tons and consumption level is expected to reach to 277 kg per hectare by 2030.
mm Fertilizer consumption is influenced by demand side factors like area under irrigation, average
minimum support price, institutional credit facilities, etc. and supply side factors like production,
import and subsidy significantly.
Keywords: demand forecasting, demand side model, determinants, fertilizer consumption, supply side
model

Farm sector has always been a dominant player
in the course of development of Indian economy.
It contributes 14 per cent of the GDP, 11 per cent
of exports and almost half of the population is
dependent on agriculture for their livelihood FAO
(2017). This role has witnessed a transformation from
the traditional way of agriculture to modernization
of agriculture (Mala, 2013), because the expansion
of area under cultivation is not possible and also,
arable land is declining (Venugopal, 2004). Apart
from diminishing area, there are several other
impediments in increasing agricultural production,
are also several other impediments in increasing
production like less availability of water, declining
soil productivity, the fundamental characteristic of
agriculture being exposed to the vagaries of nature
and institutional support. Among all, fertilizer is an
widely used input and thus has a lot to contribute
in increasing agricultural productivity and making
the country self-sufficient in food grain production.
How to cite this article: Jadhav, V. and Ramappa, K.B. (2021). Growth
& Determinants of Fertilizer Consumption in India: Application of
Demand and Supply Side Models. Economic Affairs, 66(3): 419-425.

imbalance use of fertilizer is most important. There Source of Support: None; Conflict of Interest: None
 Jadhav and Ramappa
In the absence of any significant breakthrough in
agricultural production technology having been
achieved in the last decades, the desired levels of
targeted agricultural production in the short run to
medium run would require more rigorous efforts
towards bridging the crop yield gap attainable with
existing technology, Malik and Shekhar (2007). They
also suggested that the role played by the fertilizers
in increasing the productivity of agriculture as one
of the modern inputs in existing technology is a ray
of hope. The fertilizer consumption in terms of all
nutrients has been increasing during the post Green
Revolution period, registering a growth rate of 3.24
per cent. Soil is becoming increasingly deficient
in many plant nutrients Parama & Munawery,
(2012) due to intensive agriculture and hence use
of fertilizers is vital to restore them FAI (2017). A
study conducted by Venugopal, (2004) shows that
around 50 to 60 per cent increase in food production
in India is due to increase in fertilizer applications.
The foodgrain production in India during 2002-03
was 174.78 million tons with a fertilizer consumption
of 16.09 mt, which increased to 283.37 million
tons in 2017-18 (a record increase by 38 per cent
corresponding to the previous year) with a fertilizer
consumption of 47.20 million tons, Indiastat.
com (2018) While the fertilizer consumption,
both in absolute terms as well as on per hectare
basis, have increased manifold over the years,
however the growth in last few years has not been
satisfactory. Malik and Shekhar (2007), Mala (2013)
and Ramappa (2020) established that increased
fertilizer use efficiency leads to economy in use
of fertilizers, reduction in unit cost of production,
prevention in fall of agricultural productivity,
protection of environmental quality and efficient use
of other inputs such as irrigation and high yielding
varieties (HYVs) in developing countries.
The fertilizer industry in India is the core sector,
and second to steel in terms of investment FAO,
(2015). The Government of India has taken steps
from time to time to promote use and production
of fertilizers in the country. All such efforts of the
government, introduction of modern technology in
the 60s and various other factors contributed to the
increased consumption of fertilizers in India. Over
time, a changing trend of using purchased inputs for
cultivation can be observed. Among these modern
inputs, fertilizers can be attributed the status of
Print ISSN : 0424-2513
being used by both small and marginal and large
farmers. However, there are huge region wise and
state wise variations in use of fertilizers too. In
this connection, Fertilizer consumption in India is
determined by two segments namely demand side
and supply side determinants, the major factors
such as support prices, area under irrigation, short
term institutional credit, and rainfall were used
to determine the demand for fertilizers, while the
supply was determined using domestic production,
imports of fertilizers, and the subsidy allocated to
the sector. In many nutrients, domestic production
of fertilizers in India is not sufficient to meet the
increasing requirement, for which imports are
brought to use. Fertilizer subsidy is a huge burden
for the government and recently there have been
efforts undertaken to reduce the same. Looking
into all these dynamics of the sector, it is very
essential to forecast the future fertilizer requirement.
With this background, the present article analyzed
demand and supply sides models for fertilizer
consumption and food grain production, identified
the determinants of fertilizer consumption and
forecasted the demand for fertilizer during the
year 2030 in order to achieve sustainable food grain
production.
1. Data and Methodology
The study has absolutely depended upon secondary
information gathered for a period of 34 years (1984-
85 to 2017-18) for which latest data was available.
Sources of data such as Fertilizer Statistics 2017-18,
FAI (2017), Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2018,
and indiastat.com were used to collect the secondary
information. Data related to the area under irrigation
and production of these crops was obtained from
Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2018. Moreover,
data for the minimum support prices of these
selected crops and short term institutional credits
were extracted from the Ministry of Agriculture, RBI
and NABARD database. Data on the average annual
rainfall in India was obtained from the data.gov.in.
Multiple regression models are used to analyze
the factors affecting fertilizer consumption in
the country in a specified period. Some factors
determine the demand for fertilizers while others
decides the supply. Thus, the factors are divided
accordingly to make two linear models for demand
and supply sides. Moreover, the growth rate in
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 Growth & Determinants of Fertilizer Consumption in India: Application of Demand and Supply Side Models
the per hectare consumption of fertilizers vis-à-vis
the growth rate in the yield of fertilizer intensive
crops are calculated to analyze the per hectare
fertilizer consumption, that is intensity of fertilizer
consumption in India. With the help of a logistic
model, total fertilizer requirement is forecasted
upto the year 2030. Following the trend of GCA in
the previous years, it is also being forecasted till
2030. With the help of these indicators, per hectare
consumption of fertilizer was computed. The
methods used to explain the factors determining
using demand for and supply of fertilizer and
growth rate of factors, which is influencing the
fertilizers consumption. The details of forecasting
models are as follows.
(a) Demand Side Model: In the model comprising
demand side factors, crops selected are rice, wheat,
coarse cereals, cotton, sugarcane, and rapeseed and
mustard. The model is as given below:
Consumption = α1 + β1 PAUI + β2 SMSP +
β3 STCL + u …(1)
where, Consumption is total fertilizer consumption
in ’000 tonnes, PAUI is percentage of area under
irrigation of the total area under cultivation in
million hectares for the selected crops, SMSP is sum
of average of minimum support price of food crops
and that of commercial crops among the selected
crops, STCL is short term credit loans issued in
crore Rupees and α1 is intercept of demand side
consumption model and β1, β2 and β3 are the
coefficients of PAUI, SMSP and STCL, respectively
and u is error term.
(b) Supply Side Model: There are several other
determinants of fertilizer consumption like domestic
production, import of fertilizers, capacity utilization
by the industries, number of sale points, and
subsidy allocation. This section is an attempt to
study the factors which determine the supply of
fertilizers in the country. The supply side model is
as follows:
Consumption = α2 + γ1 NPTP + γ2 TFIM +
γ3 CSUB + u …(2)
Where, consumption is total fertilizer consumption
in ’000 tonnes, NPTP is total N and P production
in ’000 tonnes, TFIM is total fertilizer imports in
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’000 tonnes, CSUB is central subsidy issued in
crore rupees and α2 is intercept of supply side
consumption model and γ1, γ2 and γ3 are the
coefficients of NPTP, TFIM and CSUB, respectively
and u is error term.
(c) Factor’s Growth Rate: Growth rate of factors
which determined are, directly or indirectly, affect
the fertilizer consumption in the country and that
of total fertilizer consumption itself are calculated.
These growth rates are for the period of 34 years
starting from 1984 to 2017. The growth rates were
calculated using the regression model: ln Y = α + βt,
where, ln Y is the natural log value of the variable
under consideration. The growth rate is computed
using the following formula:
Growth Rate = (Antilog of β – 1) * 100 …(3)
(d) Forecasting of the Total Fertilizer Demand:
For the purpose of forecasting the total fertilizer
requirement, total consumption is regressed on time
in a logistic model. Other models like growth and
exponential were also tested. However, data fits well
in logistic model and the forecasted values seem to
follow the past trend of fertilizer consumption data
well in this model. The GCA was also forecasted
using the same logistic model. With the estimates
of fertilizer requirement and GCA, per hectare
consumption of fertilizer was calculated. The logistic
model as follows;
Yt = 1 / [1/K + a bt] + e
Results and Discussion
Increase in the fertilizer consumption is due to the
favorable environment like irrigation, spread of
HYVs, introduction of the Retention Price Scheme
(RPS) in 1977, expansion of phosphate and other
complex fertilizers and further inclusion of SSP
and ammonium chloride in the RPS, respectively,
during 1982 and 1985. This is also due to ease in
distribution and affordable prices and improvement
in the capacity utilization, especially of N fertilizers.
Sharma and Thaker (2011) pointed out one more
reason behind the increase of virtually no change in
farm gate fertilizer prices for 10 years (1981-1991).
The fertilizer subsidy provided to the fertilizer
industries to promote the small and marginal
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 Jadhav and Ramappa
farmers by using the subsidized fertilizer crop
production activity, but in reality, this provision
found to inaccessible to the small and marginal
farmers.
Determinants of Fertilizer Consumption
Indian agriculture has the responsibility to feed
more than a billion of peoples, livestock’s and agro
based industries. To fulfill this need, the only way
to increase crop yield with the help of modern
inputs is a must. Indian agriculture is the presence
of small and marginal farmers in large section
of the population. They cannot always afford to
use capital inputs like machines and tractors and
adopt new technology for crop production. They
face resource constraints while doing so and the
size of land is not economically suitable too. They
are left with the option, use of consumable modern
inputs to enhance the land productivity. Out of
these consumable inputs, fertilizers are the only
input to help in increasing yield. In this connection,
the details of factors influencing for fertilizer
consumption is analyzed and results are presented
in Table 1.
Table 1: Growth Rate of Determinants of Fertilizer
Consumption (in per cent)
Sl. Compound
Particulars
No. growth rate
1 Total fertilizer consumption 4.16
2 Total imports 5.37
3 Total domestic production 3.55
4 Central subsidy 14
5 Per cent area irrigated 1.42
6 Short term institutional credit 17.09
7 Annual rainfall 0.33
8 Average MSP 7.43
Source: Computed using data from Fertilizer Statistics 2018-19 and
Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2019.
Fertilizer consumption is influenced by many
determinants. The demand for fertilizers is derived
demand i.e., demand for fertilizer is depends on
the demand for the crop cultivated and the price
received for the same crop. Demand for fertilizers
is also influenced by prices of fertilizers, GCA,
area under irrigation, availability of credit to the
cultivators, etc. The demand side determinants
like area under irrigation reflected a growth rate
of 1.42 per cent over the 34 years while the average
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minimum support prices show a growth rate of 7
per cent. The short term institutional credit registers
a growth rate of 17 per cent, which is due to the
concerted efforts to make credit availability easy to
the farmers. Quantum of annual rainfall is important
factor affecting for application of fertilizers and has
resulted to increase by 0.33 per cent. The results are
conformity with the Nagraj (1983).
Subsidies play a huge role in determining fertilizer
consumption. They form a major part of the total
subsidy expenditure of the government as reflected
by 14 per cent of growth rate. Sometimes it is
claimed that the structure of fertilizer subsidies
leads to the imbalance in use of fertilizers. Indian
soils are now deficient in many micro nutrients as
well. Thus, managing subsidies such that it will
lessen the burden and promote balanced use of
all fertilizers is the need of the hour. The import
of fertilizer has significantly increased during the
study period as reflected by growth rate of 5.37
per cent on the contrary, growth rate of domestic
fertilizer production registered by 3.55 per cent.
The consumption of fertilizers has been increasing
over the period by reflecting the growth rate of
4.16 per cent per annum. However, there are still
certain reasons which impede the extensive use of
fertilizers. These are explained clearly by Venugopal
(2005) as: (i) non-availability of fertilizers in time,
(ii) capital/ credit constraints, (iii) not growing crops
where fertilizer use is profitable, (iv) non-availability
of irrigation water, (v) desired type of fertilizer not
available, (vi) higher price than output price, (vii)
soil deterioration, and (viii) FYM available. These
reasons can be considered valid in the current
period too. Therefore, the current consumption
pattern of fertilizers in India is repeatedly said to
have further scope of efficient and balanced use
with increased intensity so that it will improve
agricultural profitability.
Demand Side Fertilizer Consumption Model
Given the importance of the fertilizers, role
played in strengthening Indian agriculture, the
government has continuously taken up steps to
ease the consumption of fertilizer by farmers. There
are several factors that contribute to the increase
in fertilizer consumption. Among them, MSPs,
augmentation of area under irrigation, availability
of credit, etc. plays an important role in determining
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 Growth & Determinants of Fertilizer Consumption in India: Application of Demand and Supply Side Models

the demand of fertilizers from the field. On the fertilizers. It is well established from the result
contrary, domestic production, total imports of by increasing one per cent area under irrigation,
fertilizers, and subsidy extended to the sector are fertilizer consumption will increase by 135.84
significantly affecting the supply of fertilizers in the thousand tonnes. Similarly, by increasing one per
country. Increase in the output prices, area under cent MSP, fertilizer consumption will increase by
irrigation and credit availability are all institutional 4.85 tonnes. Short term institutional loans (STCL)
factors. They show a decent growth over time. reflected a negative relation, which means by one
Concerted efforts towards achieving this growth per cent increasing Short term institutional loans
has to be credited, however they have their own (STCL) the fertilizer consumption will declined by
limitations too. Not all farmers are able to benefit 2.96 tonnes. This may due to discouraged private
themselves from support prices. The spread of sectors production and import of chemical fertilizer
irrigation has to be intensified too. Moreover, in case due to which total supply could not be increased
of credit, non- institutional sources still show their as expected.
presence in the agricultural credit system. Keeping
in view of all these potential factors, the regression Supply Side Consumption Model
were employed for demand side consumption The regression results of supply side consumption
model and results are presented in Table 2. model are given in Table 3. The result shows the
importance of domestic production in fertilizer
Table 2: Regression results for demand side
consumption model consumption. Increase in domestic production with
the efficient capacity utilization will directly affect
Sl. No. Variable Coefficient t value Standard Error the fertilizer consumption.
1 Constant (α1) 5939.48*** 6.80 873.54
2 PAUI 135.84 ***
5.56 24.43 Table 3: Regression Results for Supply Side
3 SMSP 4.85 ***
6.82 0.71 Consumption Model
4 STCL -2.96 ***
-3.09 0.96 Standard
Sl. No. Variable Coefficients t value
5 Adj. R2 value 0.95 — — Error
6 R2 value 0.95 — — 1 Constant (α2) 601.98*** 1.45 416.25
7 F value 181.35 ***
— — 2 NPTP 0.99*** 28.26 0.04
Note: ***
denotes values are significant at one per cent level. 3 TFIM 0.70 ***
9.81 0.07
Source: Authors Calculations. 4 CSUB 0.04*** 3.86 0.01
5 Adj. R value
2
0.99 — —
The high R square value (0.95) denotes that 95 6 R2 value 0.99 — —
per cent of variation in the fertilizer consumption 7 F value 1401.30*** — —
is explained by the variation in the explanatory Note: ***
denotes values are significant at 1% level.
variables. The model is significant at 1 per cent
Source: Authors Calculations.
level and all the variables are also considered as
significant at one per cent level. The period under From the table the high R square value (0.99) denotes
consideration witnessed increasing consumption that 99 per cent variation in the consumption
as the green revolution technology was more or of fertilizers is explained by the variation in the
less spread across the states. Moreover, the policy explanatory variables. All the three independent
changes made fertilizer prices to fluctuate due variables in the model such as production (NPTP),
to decontrol. As mentioned earlier, increasing import (TFIM) and subsidy (CSUB) are significant
the support prices was the alternative policy at one per cent level with the ‘t’ value of 28.26,
option adopted. The support prices have been 9.81 and 3.86, respectively. So, it is important to
continuously increasing over the period. Though import the fertilizers to meet the gap between
increase in support prices was not successful as a domestic production and total demand since we
policy alternative to increase fertilizer consumption, have less production. In case of K fertilizers, the
the model shows that it does have a significant country is dependent on imports fully. As discussed
role to play in determining the consumption of in the previous section, imports (TFIM) have

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 Jadhav and Ramappa

shown a higher growth as compared to domestic level of the intensity of usage of fertilizer in other
production (NPTP). Therefore, again the need to countries. According to the World Bank data, per
augment domestic production is emphasized here. hectare fertilizer consumption in Bangladesh during
Though subsidy becomes a huge burden on the the year 2013 was 208.7 kg, which is higher than
government, it plays a major role in determining the India though arable land in Bangladesh is lesser than
consumption. Therefore, it is important to allocate India and likewise China, Colombia and Malaysia’s
subsidies in such a way that reduce the burden and fertilizers consumption rate were 364.4 kg, 648.8 kg
promote balanced use of fertilizers. and 1726.6 kg, respectively, which was higher than
India during the same period. No wonder these
Forecasting of Fertilizer Demand countries experienced higher crop productivity too.
Logistic model used for forecasting of fertilizer Data shows that the fertilizer consumption in 2013
demand till the year 2030, is presented in Table 4. for the middle income countries was 132.1 kg and
The result shows that total fertilizer demand will that of upper middle income countries this was
be increased by around 7.04 million tons in next 144.7 kg. This means fertilizer intensity in India
five years (i.e. 48.68 million tons during 2025) than matches with most of the countries; however, we
now i.e.39.70 million tons. By the year of 2030 the still have scope to improve the same.
total requirement of fertilizer consumption will be So, it is clear from the data that the domestic
57.32 million tons. The result also indicate that the production of fertilizers has increased over the
forthcoming years will be experienced continuous period. In case of N and P, the country is near
rise in the fertilizer demand. Hence the domestic to achieving self sufficiency. However, addition
production of fertilizer has to be promoted to meet of new capacity and efficient use of existing
the increasing requirement instead of importing of capacity is still lagging behind. If we compare
fertilizers. The estimated gross cropped area during the growth rates, imports have shown a higher
next five years will increased by 2.48 million hectare growth. This has many implications with the
and by the year of 2030, it will reached to 206.72 country being completely dependent on imports
million hectare. Similarly, fertilizer consumption for K fertilizers, which adds to the burden upon
will be increased by 32.17 kg/hectare in next five the government. Thus, policies have to be adopted
year and at the end of the year 2030, it will be to create encouraging environment for domestic
increased up to 277.27kg/hectare. industries and existing industries have to increase
their efficiency. The increasing requirement should
Table 4: Forecast of fertilizers consumption upto 2030 be met with increasing domestic production,
Total instead of increasing imports. International prices
Sl. GCA of fertilizers are also increasing, adding to the
Year requirement kg/ha
No. (million ha)
(million tons) fiscal burden of the government. Conducive policy
1 2021 39.70 201.14 197.35 structure for domestic production is a must to
2 2022 41.35 201.76 204.94 reduce the subsidy burden of the government.
3 2023 43.07 202.38 212.82
4 2024 44.87 203.00 221.01 Conclusion
5 2025 46.74 203.62 229.52 Fertilizer consumption in India is still lower than
6 2026 48.68 204.24 238.36 many countries and it comprises an important
7 2027 50.71 204.86 247.54 part of the modern consumable inputs structure of
8 2028 52.82 205.48 257.08 the changing agricultural scenario. The structure
9 2029 55.02 206.10 266.98 of fertilizer industry is an interesting mix of
10 2030 57.32 206.72 277.27 government support and market forces. This
Source: Authors calculations. characteristic feature has lead to changes in
consumption of fertilizers with the changes in
The forecast suggests that by 2025, per hectare
government policies. There are several factors that
fertilizer consumption will exceed the level of 230
contribute to the increase in fertilizer consumption.
kg, which will be double the amount of current
Among them, MSPs, increase in the area under
usage of fertilizer. However, this is still below the

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 Growth & Determinants of Fertilizer Consumption in India: Application of Demand and Supply Side Models
irrigation, availability of credit plays an important
role in determining the demand of fertilizers from
the field. On the contrary, domestic production,
total imports of fertilizers, and subsidy extended
to the sector are significantly affecting the supply
of fertilizers in the country. Increase in the output
prices, area under irrigation and credit availability
are all institutional factors. They show a decent
growth over time. The forecast suggested that by
2030 the total fertilizer demand will reach a level of
around 57 million tons. The rate of consumption of
fertilizers by the same time will be 277 kg/ha. Thus,
the analysis articulates that we need a concerted
policy response for the encouragement of domestic
production and capacity utilization, reduced
dependence on imports, efficient management of
subsidy for the sector, promoting balanced use of
fertilizers with the help of awareness programmes
and improvement in agricultural education, and
efforts to reduce the huge variations in the use of
fertilizers across regions.
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