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W E L C O M E TO T H E N E W A N D I M P ROV E D I N T E L L I G E N C E Q U A RT E R LY
The most likely scenario is that Putin, or his generals, initiate a small incursion into Ukraine in order to solidify its
already occupied areas and create chaos and embarrassment amongst NATO members. A full invasion of
Ukraine, wherein they take down the main cities and “sack” Kiev is simply off the table.
In the short version, I can figure out the following versions of invasion (from small to large):
a) “cyber” invasion;
c) the locals of the Pro-Russian districts in one perfect day will be quickly “multiplied” by the civil-dressed Russian
militaries equipped with good Russian weaponry;
d) somehow try to organize the Afghanistan-79 type scenario, – whereby some group does something like a
(military) coup and officially asks Russia to help. Note that the new version of such a scenario was successfully
tested recently in Kazakhstan.
a) and b) are slightly long-term, but are easy to operate surreptitiously and without any need to show the flag;
c) and d) are a short and sharp, wherein the main phase must be finished within a maximum of 72-hours and
where it is impossible to note any Russian identity keeping things clandestine, ie “to keep the flags in secret”.
What is China’s role if any? Would Moscow even consult China on a Ukraine incursion?
China is a short-term friend of convenience for Russia per the Eastern proverb “ the enemy of my enemy, is my
friend”. If Russia were to somehow try and ask for help, China would attempt to extract a so-called “double profit”:
· “direct” and touchable success in the East Russia region, such as increasing the presence of one or more
businesses, as well as increasing the exports of the Russian resources at favourable pricing, and;
Russia, in any case, must start consultation on least on one crucial issue – be ready for the case of oil sanctions.
In fact, they should be close to completing their plans in case thereof:
· China is a permanent member of the Security Council at the UN and has an exclusive right to VETO;
· If the Western block of countries somehow agree to sanction Russian Gas and Oil, then China can becomes
an “emergency rescue client” for Russian oil
Does Russia have the capability to invade and take all of Ukraine over?
In military terms, taking over the whole of the Ukraine would require a 72-96 hour airborne operation, especially if
Russia forgets the “good image” strategy in the public eye and starts Putin’s long dream of rebuilding as the
USSR did much like in the 1920’s, HOWEVER, when those active military campaign 100 hours are finished, Russia
will face the real hell of an insurgency from the civilian population of Ukraine, especially the population of
Western Ukraine, as well as potentially from the US/NATO/UN on the international side sending it special forces
to pick off a few soldiers. It’s more than likely some are already there.
A takeover is not a big problem – the issue of keeping the territory is the primary question going forward.
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