RESEARCH REPORT

AI and analytics are powering a demand planning

and customer experience revolution
New research shows how retailers and consumer goods companies are using data
to improve supply chains, demand planning and customer experience
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Contents
About this report.................................................................................................. 1
Striving to meet customer demand................................................................. 1
Increasing speed and frequency by executing forecasting
with greater agility ............................................................................................... 2
Keeping up with consumer sentiment
and other disruptions ......................................................................................... 4
Striving to be more outwardly focused .......................................................... 5
Full access across the supply chain needed ................................................. 6
Challenges created by demand uncertainty ................................................. 7
Accelerating supply chain and customer engagement
forecasting and planning .................................................................................. 8
Harnessing more data to improve supply forecasting
and demand planning .....................................................................................11
Case study: Grocer turns to predictive analytics during pandemic...12
Retailers need to expand focus on customer engagement
and experience ..................................................................................................13
Case study: Ulta Beauty ..............................................................................13
Mining digital information to improve demand forecasting
and planning ......................................................................................................14
Conclusion: 5 steps for implementing predictive analytics
and machine learning.......................................................................................15
 1

About this report

In the past decade, there’s been a major shift in consumers’ fundamental buying
patterns. As mass retail scaled up, consumers became enamored with the variety
and choice of large product assortments. When e-commerce became widespread,
shoppers quickly adapted to finding the best price online. Today, thanks to next-day
shipping, product shortages and transportation disruptions, availability and delivery
speed have become the deciding factor for consumers, making inventory availability
the ultimate competitive advantage for retailers.

The companies that can guarantee the highest on-shelf inventory and forward
deployment of goods can expect to win the day. But that’s easier said than done.

To gauge how organizations are improving their demand planning, supply chains
and customer experience, Forbes Insights, with SAS, Accenture and Intel, surveyed
1,000 retail and consumer goods executives from all over the world. The key
takeaway? Analytics and technology are powering a demand planning and
customer experience revolution.

Keep reading to learn what these executives had to say about:

• Synchronization strategies and challenges for planning and forecasting.

• Collaboration in demand planning and customer engagement planning.
• The various tools and initiatives used to improve forecasting and planning.
• The overall importance of customer experience.

Striving to meet customer demand

Today’s retailers and consumer goods companies must satisfy the unique demands of
each of their customers, including the ability to shop via web, mobile, click-and-collect
and others. Gone are the good old days of the mass market where a single assortment,
standard pricing and a single “average location” forecast would satisfy consumer
demand in all stores.

While the majority of retailers are satisfied with

the accuracy of their customer engagement
and supply planning forecasts (Figure 1),
many still struggle to adjust their forecasts
to changing demand and quantity patterns,
including seasonality, difficult-to-predict
demand for slow-moving goods – and
unforeseen disruptions like COVID-19.

Much of a retailer’s time and effort is spent

in the planning process, so improving the
reliability of statistical forecasts can result
in huge rewards like greater operational
efficiency, reduced expenses and
Figure 1. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.
increased profits.
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Automation and assisted demand planning

While demand forecasting is critical, many retailers and consumer goods companies rely
on a relatively small number of demand analysts and planners to generate large numbers
of statistical forecasts. Given the relatively small number of forecasters, organizations
largely rely on automation to complete each demand planning cycle.

Today, using intelligent automation supported by machine learning, retailers and

consumer goods companies can automate repetitive work activities, generally done in
spreadsheets, freeing up demand analysts and reducing the time it takes to complete
the process by as much as 47%.

SAS’ patented assisted demand planning capability provides retailers and consumer
goods companies with a digital assistant that uses machine learning to guide demand
planners in making adjustments to statistical forecasts. For example, assisted demand
planning guides demand planners up and down the business product hierarchy, directing
them where and in what direction (to raise or lower the forecast) and provides a range to
stay within to adjust the statistical forecast.

This new intelligent automation assisted demand planning approach can increase demand
planners’ forecast accuracy between 6% and 9% and is transforming demand forecasting
and planning by reducing non-value repetitive work and providing near-real-time, action-
based consumer insights.

Increasing speed and frequency by executing

forecasting with greater agility
The Forbes research shows that demand and supply cycles are becoming more episodic
and volatile (Figure 2), with more than 75% of retail executives agreeing that forecasting for
demand and supply cycles is:

• Increasing in speed and frequency.

• Requiring greater agility.
• Becoming more critical for business success.

Why? For one, consumer goods companies

provide items like food, beverages and other
commonly used products that have short shelf
lives. That means retailers must routinely and
accurately forecast demand and replenish
store shelves to meet consumer needs. And
that requires highly effective supply chain
management to handle the proper movement
and storage of products from the point of origin
to the point of consumption.

It’s especially important for consumer goods

companies and retailers to forecast short-term
consumer demand accurately to ensure that
products are available to consumers when
they need them in the near-term. Figure 2. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.
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Short-term forecasts (one to eight weeks) help these companies understand and
predict rapidly shifting consumer demand patterns associated with sales promotions,
events, weather conditions, natural disasters and other anomalies. And they allow
retailers and consumer goods companies to predict and adapt to changing consumer
demand patterns in near-real time.

The Forbes research results are borne out by the many leading companies, like Kellogg
and Molson Coors, that are investing in SAS technology for short-term demand sensing
and integrated demand planning technology because they know they need to increase
the speed and frequency of forecasting and planning to achieve greater agility.

“‘Fast fashion‘ – a business model in which fashion retailers

produce affordable, short life cycle clothing as quickly as
possible to respond to fast-moving trends – is widely
considered a disruptive shift in the fashion industry. Being
successful in fast fashion requires a mastery of consumer
preference monitoring, manufacturing production, supply
chain management, logistics, pricing and so much more.

“It also presents a significant forecasting challenge. That’s

where machine learning comes in. Machine learning
models have dramatically improved forecast accuracy
for fashion retailers when adequate product attributes are
available. Retailers that have developed strong product
attribute data management capabilities are significantly
improving inventory placement for both online and in-store
fulfillment. Plus, they are swiftly adjusting their inventory
planning practices across fulfillment networks by using
new cloud-based analytics capabilities, from AI and machine
learning forecasting to just-in-time supply chain optimization.
The result? Fashion retailers can move at the speed of fashion
itself.“

Wanda Shive, Principal Director, Cloud Analytics, Accenture

Applied Intelligence at Accenture
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Keeping up with consumer sentiment

and other disruptions
The pandemic affected every industry, but retail and consumer goods faced even more
disruption than most as shoppers switched to e-commerce in droves and complex supply
chains crumbled. While disruptions like the pandemic and supply chain challenges are still
major concerns, the Forbes research revealed that keeping up with customer sentiment is
the greatest challenge (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

When COVID-19 hit, retailers quickly began optimizing their store and web touch points to
serve the new needs of shoppers. Many retailers increasingly turned to third parties to
drive digital sales as consumer sentiment indicated that one of the most likely effects of
COVID-19 was the need to sell through additional digital channels, such as marketplaces
or social media sites.

The combination of these two trends (blurring the line between online and in-person
purchases and turning increasingly to outside partners to drive digital sales) speaks
to a holistic redefinition of omnichannel. This new view requires retailers to think of
omnichannel as the full suite of ways a consumer can engage with the brand. Traditional
channels, such as stores, websites and brand-owned apps, are still important waypoints
in the omnichannel journey. But retailers must adapt to new engagement points,
including marketplace presence, selling on social media and partnering with last-mile
delivery services.

Omnichannel challenges – and a solution

Expanding the omnichannel engagement strategy presents retailers with some
difficult challenges as they coordinate activities across both brand-owned and external
touch points. Pivoting to incorporate the new touch points also requires that brands
expand their data collection efforts to include the behavioral data and associated insights
that originate from these external channels.
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A comprehensive understanding of consumers requires the ability to synchronize

consumer behavior across all devices, marketplaces, apps and digital touch points while
also integrating that information with behavioral data to drive contextual engagement.
SAS® Customer Intelligence 360 is a multichannel marketing hub with built-in customer
data platform (CDP) capabilities that allow marketers to collect and structure all types of
consumer data for real-time analysis and activation.

Despite the challenges, retailers and consumer packaged goods companies have a “Current consumer
tremendous opportunity to change the game for consumers by integrating the data, trends continue to
processes and technologies that support not only omnichannel marketing efforts but
evolve, and it’s critical
also other critical initiatives, such as supply chain and demand forecasting.
for marketers to
provide personalized
Striving to be more outwardly focused and contextual
While more than 58% of retail and CPG executives stated that historical forecasts were
interactions at every
a useful indicator of supply and demand before the pandemic (Figure 4), today they’re point in the consumer
striving to be less historically focused (64%) and to use more external data in forecasts journey. SAS Customer
and planning (67%). Intelligence 360
External data can help improve retail forecasting and supply execution by allowing
enables marketers
companies to: to develop a true
• Quickly identify sales trends and capitalize on selling opportunities.
understanding of the
• More effectively allocate inventory.
consumer – to integrate
• Prevent out-of-stocks.
the data and leverage
• Reduce overages and markdowns.
AI to continue to
• Enrich first-party customer data for increased personalization.
analyze and optimize
each interaction.”

Kate Parker,
Senior Manager,
Customer Intelligence
Global Practice, SAS

Figure 4. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

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Why does external data matter in retail forecasting?

Many companies use sell-in data to build a demand forecast. But this type of forecasting
falls short without sell-through data to feed into the forecasting process. That’s where
cloud-native point solutions for retailers and consumer goods companies take advantage
of point-of-sale data – such as sell-through and weeks of inventory on hand – giving them
a more complete picture of consumer buying patterns.

When companies can better understand what influences historical product performance,
they’re able to better predict future demand. POS data is key to retail and consumer
products forecasting because it closely reflects true consumer demand. With SAS
Analytics, companies improve forecasting using machine learning algorithms that
automate collection and data cleansing for both internal and external data in real time,
then display focused results to predict consumer demand.

Full access across the supply chain needed

Figure 5. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

According to the Forbes research (Figure 5), full access across the supply chain is lacking.
Only one in five executives said that their supply chain team has full access to pricing,
and less than half said their teams have significant access to market conditions and
demand signals.

The best approach to providing supply chain teams with the data they need is through
shared data sources from both sales/marketing and supply chain teams with visual
analytics, using dashboards and control towers. By providing visibility across both of
these business functions, it’s possible to gain a unified view of the customer experience,
pre- and post-sale.
 7

While sales/marketing and supply chain teams run their own operations, neither should
exist in a silo, and most of the data will be useful to both. For example, both teams
should be able to answer questions like the following:

• Where is demand greatest, and in what regions?

• How many sales orders were booked at the end of the quarter that need to
be fulfilled?
• How many sales orders are close to fulfillment (to help better plan availability
for high-demand products)?
• How does customer satisfaction affect future buying behavior?
• What is our OTIF (on-time and in-full) order rate?

Analytics on these patterns can help both the sales/marketing and supply chain teams
get ahead of their objectives. Both teams are integral to customer experience, and
working together from shared data should result in improved processes, shorter lead
times, less inventory buffer stock and fewer stock-outs – all of which leads to stronger
customer relationships, higher revenues and increased profit margins.

Challenges created by demand uncertainty

The Forbes research showed that 40% of retail and consumer goods executives are
seeing variance between their demand and production forecasts (Figure 6). That level
of uncertainty makes it difficult to determine the right quantity of supplies and goods
to order for each sales cycle, creating a problem with stock-outs for 50% of those
surveyed. Backorders on shelf, high inventories for the wrong products, higher than
normal safety stock, waste and discarded products all lead to unexpected costs,
reducing revenue and profit margins.

When demand unexpectedly increases, retailers with an insufficient supply may lose
customers to competitors that have the desired product available, and once lost, that
customer may not come back.

Figure 6. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

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Problems caused by demand uncertainty are not limited to product availability. When
consumer demand patterns fluctuate, it becomes difficult to achieve appropriate staffing
levels, especially for retailers. Other areas of expenditure, such as equipment purchases
or facility development, are also affected.

So what’s the solution? Minimizing backorders begins with better predictions of the
consumer demand signal (from POS/syndicated scanner data, such as that provided by
Nielsen, Information Resources Inc. and others), which will enable more accurate demand
forecasting and planning. This requires a complete reengineering of the demand
management process, including process, people, analytics and technology.

Accelerating supply chain and customer engagement

forecasting and planning
Consumer expectations are changing from acquiring goods to accumulating experiences.
As a result, the customer experience has emerged as the new competitive battleground.
Delivering an excellent product is not enough anymore. Consumers want personalized
and everlasting interactions supported by dynamic processes. This is at the core of supply
chain innovation, and the Forbes research bears this out, showing a strong focus on
accelerating supply chain and customer engagement planning (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

Supply chains need to be precise and agile to deliver unified customer engagement
through personalized offers and optimum levels of inventory. A consumer-centric supply
chain strives for operational transparency across all partners. This helps build a seamless
and dynamic brand experience – and provides value-added services to consumers.
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Organizations can deliver better consumer experiences through the supply chain by:

1. Aligning the process: Integrate all the customer-related functions with the core
company strategy to quickly and efficiently fulfill customer needs.
2. Enhancing visibility: Integrate and connect departments across the organization
to increase visibility of real-time supply and demand across various channels.
This helps organizations better manage inventory levels and reduces the time
of planning cycles.
3. Introducing flexibility and agility: Integrated supply chain operations help
organizations to identify process bottlenecks, increase floor visibility and manage
operations with agility, allowing companies to shift the focus from mass production
to mass customization based on consumer preferences.
4. Delivering on time: The delivery phase is crucial in supply chain management
and can make or break the customer experience. Real-time vehicle tracking and
analytics-driven transportation planning can optimize delivery routes to speed
delivery, improve productivity and ensure customer satisfaction.
5. Personalizing customer needs: Supply chain management helps in providing
personalized service based on the customer’s purchase history. It also helps in
catering lean inventory and differentiated strategies (discount, value-add, etc.)
to build superior customer experiences and lasting brand loyalty.
6. Optimizing consumer journeys: By combining valuable supply chain insight with
customer data, retailers can use predictive analytics to build next-best-action models,
identifying the next action their customers will likely take in their
purchase path.

Embracing the right data, analytics and technology to implement these strategies helps
retailers and consumer product companies make faster, near-real-time decisions
related to customer satisfaction.

Customer engagement and supply chain planning becoming

more complex
Retailers and consumer products companies are experiencing unprecedented
complexity as they look for growth and market opportunities. Their product portfolios
are growing with new product introductions, new approaches for existing products and
new sales channels. The endless aisles of the internet and mobile shopping channels
are expanding product offerings, adding unparalleled supply chain complexity and
making it difficult to manage inventory effectively. Sales and promotion spending,
designed to grow revenue, continues at a staggering pace.

That’s why many organizations are turning to dynamic data capture combined with
customer-level data. Customizable data can pinpoint individual digital visitors and
their activities across a range of channels, touch points and devices, facilitating
personalization throughout the retail experience.
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The goal is to improve decisions regarding product distribution and operations across all
channels of the business. However, it’s taking time to transition from limited analytics to a
more expansive role. Companies are quickly realizing that their enterprise effort requires
a completely different corporate culture that includes different skills, processes, analytics
and technology. Although many companies have already started to collect data across all
distribution channels to gain more customer and consumer information, the race to apply
analytics to optimize sales and inventory across all channels has taken much more effort
than anticipated.

Figure 8. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

As shown in Figure 8, many retailers and CPG companies expect to transition to monthly
or weekly updates to their customer engagement and demand plans. They’ll need the
right demand forecasting and planning process, analytics and technology to do that
successfully. And once they have that in place, these companies can simplify their demand
planning and create an integrated planning framework that supports multiple forecasting
methods with one synchronized view of demand for every type of customer and consumer
ship-to combination.

Machine learning for more frequent, accurate forecasts

Machine learning techniques are helping many companies effectively enhance weekly
and daily product demand forecasts. This new weekly forecasting approach uses a
combination of traditional time-series models and machine learning methods to
automatically choose the best model for each product ship-to-location combination.

Using machine learning improves short-term forecasts at the weekly and daily level, and
organizations are seeing a significant improvement in forecast accuracy over existing
monthly forecasting by geographies, markets and channels.

The results have demonstrated that POS and customer inventory data further improve
the daily and weekly forecast accuracy. The SAS short-term demand sensing methods
use machine learning to provide a flexible, transparent and scalable solution for effective
demand planning for retailers and consumer goods companies.
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Harnessing more data to improve supply forecasting

and demand planning
Over the past two years, retailers – particularly grocers – have experienced wildly
shifting consumer demand patterns due to the pandemic. Thanks to COVID-19, grocers
had to fulfill urgent demands and a flood of consumers who turned to online grocery
purchases. SAS worked with one regional grocer that experienced an increase in online
purchases of more than 200%, virtually overnight.

The only way to meet that level of demand was for the grocer to understand
its customers and anticipate their buying patterns. This required investment in
consumption-based forecasting and planning and precise coordination across the
supply chain, including greater efforts to harness supplier data. The Forbes research
bears this out, showing that 61% of retail and CPG executives are currently focused
on increasing their use of supplier data (Figure 9).

Figure 9. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

“For retailers struggling to make sense of massive volumes

of data to accelerate everyday decision making, AI is proving
to be a powerful, practical tool. These survey results show an
industry using its deep analytics experience as a launching
pad for the next generation of AI capabilities – and driving
real results in supply chain and demand planning.

“Intel not only supports the compute behind the AI but the
security to keep data more secure.”

Matt Ward, General Manager for IoT Industry Sales, Intel

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Case study: Grocer turns to predictive analytics during pandemic

Forecasting demand for grocery products is hard enough during normal conditions, let
alone during a major disruption like the pandemic. Simple forecasting methods that take
historical demand for a product and extrapolate those patterns (trend and seasonality) into
the future don’t work well under these conditions. It requires more data, more advanced
predictive analytics and machine learning.

SAS worked with the regional grocer mentioned previously to implement predictive
analytics models that integrated epidemiological data, exchange rates, Google trends
and stringency indices to more accurately predict rapidly shifting consumer demand.

This new consumption-based approach resulted in 91.7% accuracy on average across

all the product categories. This translated to an overall 12.3% improvement in forecast
accuracy on average across those product categories and SKUs (stock-keeping units)
during the peak of the pandemic.

The company's demand analysts delivered a real-time feed and automation of data,
providing the demand planners with an up-to-date view of global and regional patterns.
They also delivered additional what-if scenario capabilities to adjust product forecasts
based on key consumer sentiment. Finally, they were able to replicate this capability in
the company’s dedicated cloud environment and deployed it within days.

Even as COVID-19 evolves, there are still shifts in consumer demand. But the retailers that
acted quickly to improve supply forecasting and demand planning during the pandemic
now have a significant advantage over their competitors.
 13

Retailers need to expand focus on customer

engagement and experience
As the digital marketing and commerce landscape has grown increasingly complex –
from paid search to social affiliate to retargeting – all the levers retailers can pull within
those channels can be overwhelming. At the same time, 69% of retail and consumer
goods executives agree that they need to expand groupwide focus on customer
engagement (see Figure 10). That combination of factors is causing leading retailers,
like Ulta Beauty, to turn to technology partners, like SAS, to help them automate their
omnichannel marketing to gain new customers most cost-effectively.

Figure 10. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

Case study: Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty’s “Ultamate Rewards” is one of the most successful customer loyalty
programs in the world. To maintain its leadership position and stay on the cutting edge
of customer marketing, Ulta Beauty decided to implement new technology, including
artificial intelligence and machine learning. The company was looking for a solution to
address the challenges of customer loyalty and product abandonment to take it to the
next level.

Ulta Beauty decided to move data off-premises to the cloud and chose Google Big
Query as its cloud partner, along with SAS advanced analytics. With the AI and machine
learning capabilities in the SAS solution (a combination of SAS Customer Intelligence
360 and SAS® Viya®), Ulta was able to automate its customer segmentation and optimize
its customer journeys to customize each customer’s experience.

“Helping loyal customers find the products and promotions

suited to them in a timely fashion creates a satisfying
shopping environment, and that’s paramount to us.”

Kelly Mahoney, Vice President of Customer Marketing,

Ulta Beauty
 14

Mining digital information to improve demand

forecasting and planning
Creating more accurate demand forecasts using digital data is essential, especially given
the growth in data collection technology for sales and marketing. The Forbes research
showed that mining digital data sources is a priority for 75% of retail executives (Figure 11,
below), which makes sense given that digital activities account for an increasing
proportion of marketing spending. Consequently, it’s vital for the modern demand planner
to learn to use data and analytical tools to generate consistent, accurate forecasts.

Figure 11. Based on Forbes Insights survey, 2021.

Continual change forces retailers and consumer goods companies to look forward and
plan more frequently. Demand planning analytics used to be an exercise in looking in
a rearview mirror. Today, thanks to the Internet of Things, near-real-time data is being
collected by devices embedded everywhere. Using advanced analytic algorithms as
digital data is generated at the edge of the corporate network, companies can now set
constraints to determine what information is worth sending to the cloud, to a demand
signal repository or other data repositories for later use.

Companies can process data continuously, on the move and in-memory, with high speed
and low latency to sense demand, understand what’s influencing demand and act to
anticipate future demand. That allows organizations to enhance the customer/consumer
experience while ensuring supply chain efficiencies at the retail store, channel and/or
mobile device purchase point. Smart leaders will take advantage of the flood of digital
data to make more accurate and predictive supply chain decisions.
 15

Conclusion: 5 steps for implementing predictive

analytics and machine learning
So where do forecasting teams go from here? Once organizations have identified
forecasting opportunities and targeted benefits, they should invest in these five steps
to implement predictive analytics and machine learning on a large scale:

1. Achieve clean, high-quality, accessible data. When business information isn’t

adequately sourced, aggregated, reconciled or secured, demand analysts and
planners spend more time on redundant tasks that don’t add value. Business leaders
should work with IT and the business to set the governance rules for data usage,
what good data looks like, who owns the data and who can access the data.
2. Implement organizational training, protocols and structure. It doesn’t matter how
clean or accessible the data is if demand planners don’t have the right operational
and organizational training and structure to implement predictive analytics
programs. Organizations need supporting processes and protocols for gathering
insights from the data, sharing those insights and developing action plans.
3. Roll out cultural changes. The executive team will need to focus on changing the
organization to a predictive analytics culture, and will most likely need to hire data
scientists and data visualization specialists. Organizations must train internal demand
planners to work with data scientists. Otherwise, execution may stall and, in many
cases, fail.
4. Focus on process and model sustainability. Analytics and machine learning
models are never 100% stable over time and need to be adjusted continually,
which strengthens the case for in-house competencies. It’s worth assembling a
small group of data scientists and demand planners with strong business acumen
to work together on special projects that make the case for deeper investments in
analytics talent.
5. Develop and communicate the strategic vision. Organizations must have a clear
vision of how they will use new technologies. Chief analytics officers are in a good
position to provide that vision and lead the widespread adoption of advanced
analytics. And project teams and senior leaders can be allies in radically transforming
customer experience, streamlining processes or exporting products more efficiently.

To be successful in the rapidly changing digital economy, companies need to properly

tackle digital transformation. This is not possible if it’s not part of their business agenda.
The speed of digitalization will only increase as consumers of demand forecasts
throughout the business mandate answers in real time. As more and more companies
reinvent the way they do business, the efficiency of the digital economy will see its
full potential.
 SAS + Accenture + Intel
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work in support of organizational strategies. That's why the ongoing collaboration
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to connect all the dots on analytics strategies to deliver practical solutions that deliver
real, measurable results -- at any scale.

For more information, please visit SAS® for Retail & Consumer Goods Analytics.

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