CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

School: School of Civil Environmental and Chemical Engineering

Program Name: BEng (Civil and Infrastructure)

Program Code: BP198

Course Name: Transport Engineering 3

Course Code: CIVE1219

Year: 2014-2015

_____________________________________________________________________

Project Title: Transport Modelling

Student Name and Number: Ho Yuen Wing S3459927

Fong Kwok Keung S3460103

Lee Kwok Ho S3459982

Kwok Wai Yip S3409024

Class: 3A

Name of Tutor: Dr Quentin Wan

Submission Date: 10 July 2015

________________________________________________________________________

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

Table of Contents
1. Introduction
1.1. Objective of the Project
1.2. Scope at Work Separate Paragraph

2. Data and Background Information

3. Evaluation of Adding a New Link to Transportation Network

3.1. Trip production against population
3.2. Trip attraction against employment
3.3. Utility function for the logit model

4. Comparison of Different Traffic Assignment Approaches

4.1. Result from All- or - nothing Assignment
4.2. Result from Incremental Assignment
4.3. Evaluation of the test result from all–or– nothing assignment and increment
assignment

Appendix A – Regression Model (Production)

Appendix B – Regression Model (Attraction)
Appendix C – Trip Generation
Appendix D – Trip Distribution without New Bridge
Appendix E – Trip Distribution with New Bridge
Appendix F – Logit Models, Bus Ridership & Revenue
Appendix G – All-or-nothing Assignment
Appendix H – Incremental Assignment
Appendix I – Data & Information

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

1. Introduction

1.1. Objective of the Project

Evaluation and feasibility study of developing a second bridge to fulfil the
needs for industrial development in the council of town development to boost
the employment rate and ease the strain for original transport system.
Using different assignment method to find the link volumes and travel times
of a simple network to compare different traffic assignment approaches.

1.2. Scope at Work Separate Paragraph

Estimate the population and employment of town by Regression Model for
Production & Attraction, trip generation, trip distribution and Logit models.
Compare the results and analysis the possible solution for current
development.
Compare result of different traffic assignment approaches, i.e. All-or-nothing
assignment and incremental assignment by apply to a simple network.

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

2. Data and Background Information

Information (see Appendix I) has been collected from the council and other
sources and has been commented by the project manager.
Prediction has been conduct by the Council’s Department of Planning on the
population and employment in each of the Council’s planning zones for the year
2020 based on assumption the new industrial development improves and the
residential shift towards the northern suburbs continues. Also, the council is
exploring the feasibility of developing a second bridge crossing near the new
development as shown in Figure 2.

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

3. Evaluation of Adding a New Link to Transportation Network

3.1. Trip production against population

Logic Test:
The coefficient of ‘population’ has a positive sign which shows a positive
correlation between the number of AM peak period work trip productions and
population. It means that number of AM peak period work trip productions
increases when the population increases. The +0.245 means that, the number
of AM peak period work trip productions increase by 245 when the
population increases by 1000.
The coefficient and the sign of it are logical. Therefore, this model cannot be
rejected.

Goodness of Fit:
R2 value is considerably large in this model (R2 = 0.831). This means that
83.1% of the variation in ‘AM peak period work trip productions’ can be
explained by the variation in ‘population’. As mentioned in the lecture, R2 is
not sufficient for proving an acceptable goodness of fit. Therefore, R2adj is
used to check the goodness of fit for this regression model (R2adj = 0.797).
The value of 0.797 for R2adj implies that more than 80% of the variation in
‘AM peak period work trip productions’ can be explained by the variation in
‘population’.
The developed regression model has a good goodness of fit. Therefore, this
model cannot be rejected in this test.

Statistical Tests:
First, we have to check the overall significance of linear regression model.
Therefore, F-test is used for this part of the analysis.
Fcal = 24.512
With 1 and 5 degree of freedom (d1 = 1 and d2 = 5) and α = 0.05, the Fcrit =
6.61.
Since F test statistic is in the rejection area (Fcal = 24.512 > Fcrit = 6.61 and p-
value = 0.004 < 0.05), we reject H0. Therefore, there is evidence that the
‘population’ affects ‘AM peak period work trip productions’.

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

Second, we have to check the significance of each variable (in this case we
have only one variable), t-test is used for this part of analysis.
With α = 0.05 and df = 7-1-1 = 5, the tcrit = 2.571
Since t-test statistic is in the rejection area (tcal = 4.951 > tcrit = 2.571 and p-
value = 0.004 < 0.025), we reject H0. Therefore, there is evidence that the
coefficient of ‘population’ is meaningful.
Since, the model has an acceptable performance it can be used for estimating
the number of trips produced to zone 1 to 7.

3.2. Trip attraction against employment

Logic Test:
The coefficient of ‘employment’ has a positive sign which shows a positive
correlation between the number of AM peak period work trip attractions and
employment. It means that number of AM peak period work trip attractions
increases when the employment increases. The +0.915 means that, the
number of AM peak period work trip attractions increase by 915 when the
employment increases by 1000.
The coefficient and the sign of it are logical. Therefore, this model cannot be
rejected.

Goodness of Fit:
R2 value is considerably large in this model (R2 = 0.841). This means that
84.1% of the variation in ‘AM peak period work trip attractions’ can be
explained by the variation in ‘employment’. As mentioned in the lecture, R 2
is not sufficient for proving an acceptable goodness of fit. Therefore, R2adj is
used to check the goodness of fit for this regression model (R2adj = 0.810).
The value of 0.810 for R2adj implies that more than 81% of the variation in
‘AM peak period work trip attractions’ can be explained by the variation in
‘employment’.
The developed regression model has a good goodness of fit. Therefore, this
model cannot be rejected in this test.

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

Statistical Tests:
First, we have to check the overall significance of linear regression model.
Therefore, F-test is used for this part of the analysis.
Fcal = 26.541
With 1 and 5 degree of freedom (d1 = 1 and d2 = 5) and α = 0.05, the Fcrit =
6.61.
Since F test statistic is in the rejection area (Fcal = 26.541 > Fcrit = 6.61 and p-
value = 0.004 < 0.05), we reject H0. Therefore, there is evidence that the
‘employment’ affects ‘AM peak period work trip attractions’.
Second, we have to check the significance of each variable (in this case we
have only one variable), t-test is used for this part of analysis.
With α = 0.05 and df = 7-1-1 = 5, the tcrit = 2.571
Since t-test statistic is in the rejection area (tcal = 5.152 > tcrit = 2.571 and p-
value = 0.004 < 0.025), we reject H0. Therefore, there is evidence that the
coefficient of ‘employment’ is meaningful.
Since, the model has an acceptable performance it can be used for estimating
the number of trips attracted to zone 1 to 7.

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

3.3. Utility function for the logit model

The utility function for the logit model is as follows:
Vm = 1.1DAD + 0.6CPDDA - 0.17IVTTm - 0.30OVTTm – 1.22OPCINCm
where,
Vm = utility of mode m,
DAD = drive alone dummy variable (1.0 for drive alone and 0.0 for
all other modes),
CPDDA = cars per driver for the drive alone mode (number of cars per
driver for the drive alone mode can be assumed as 1.0 and 0.0
for all other modes),
IVTTm = in-vehicle travel time for the mode
OVTTm = out-of-vehicle travel time for the mode (includes walking and
waiting times)
OPCINCm = out-of-pocket costs divided by income (OPC in $’s, INC in
$’000).
The utility expressions for each mode (car, bus and vehicle) are as follows:
VCar = 1.1 * 1 + 0.6 * 1 - 0.77 * 44 - 0.30* 5- 1.22 * 9.5 = -18.87
VBus = 1.1 * 1 + 0.6 * 1 - 0.17 * 52 – 0.30 * 11 – 1.22 * 3.8 = -16.776
VTrain = 1.1 *1 + 0.6 * 1 - 0.17 * 41 - 0.30 * 8- 1.22 * 5.2 = -15.714
As shown in Appendix F - Logit Models, Bus Ridership and Revenue, it
shows that current bus ridership between zones 1 and 7 is $9135 and the
current revenue is $34713.8 which is based on the analysis of current bridge.
For using the two bridge to predict the new bus ridership and new revenue
from zone 1 to 7, the new bus ridership is $17947 and new revenue is
$68198.7. From the above data, the predicted bus ridership and revenue from
zone 1 to 7 will be higher than the current bus ridership and revenue. The
total benefit is $33484.9.

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

4. Comparison of Different Traffic Assignment Approaches

4.1. Result from All- or - nothing Assignment
From the all-or -nothing assignment model, we have got the following result:
By comparison with different traffic route between each origin (node 1 and
node 2) and destination (node 4), it was found out that the shortest path is
route 2 starting from node 1 to node 3 to node 4. (i.e. Route 2: Link 1 to Link
3 + Link 3 to Link 4). The free flow travel time is equal to 18 which are
shown in Appendix G – All-or nothing Assignment).
Another shortest path is route 1 starting from node 2 to node 4 directly. (i.e.
Route 1: Link 2 to Link 4). The free flow travel time is equal to 22 which are
shown in Appendix G – All-or nothing Assignment).
Route 1:
Link 2 to 4 Free flow travel time = 22
Route 2:
Link 1 to 3 + Link 3 to Link 4 Free flow travel time = 18

4.2. Result from Incremental Assignment

After fifth 20% increment from node 1 to node 4 and node 2 to node 4, it was
found the shortest path is route 1 starting from node 1 to node 4 (i.e. Route 1:
Link 1 to Link 4), it requires 100 to travel from origin to destination. (as show
in Appendix H – Incremental Assignment) and the travel flow is 5200 which
is relatively small than the others. If the travellers start travelling from node2,
the shortest path is from node 2 to node 3 to node 4, the total time is 106 for
their journey. (i.e. Route 2: Link 2 to Link 3 + Link 3 to Link 4)
Route 1: Link 2 to 3 + Link 3 to Link 4 Travel time = 106
Route 2: Link 1 to 4 Travel time = 100

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CIVE1219 Transport Engineering 3 Major Project AY 2014/15

4.3. Evaluation of the test result from all–or– nothing assignment and increment
assignment
After we examined the all-or-nothing assignment and increment assignment,
it was found out that we have two different results. One is the travel time
required for travellers travelling from origin to destination. Another is the
travel flow of network.
The all-or nothing assignment assume that 1. All the trips between two zones
were assigned to the route having the minimum travel time, regardless of the
available capacity. All the traffic to routes on the basis of the shortest /
fastest path from each origin and destination and nothing is assignment to any
other route. 2. The travel time on links do not vary with link flows. Based on
the above assumption, the trip marker will choose that path (or route) which
minimizes his / her travel time. This basic assumption does not represent
actual traffic conditions where travel speeds can vary quite widely and it do
not consider the congestion. Also, it is very difficult to forecast the correct
split of traffic between the routes as, essentially, only one speed is used for
each link. The all-or-nothing assignment is inappropriate to use when the
transportation network is very congested.
An alternative method is the incremental assignment. It is assigned a fixed
amount of percentage in the O-D flows to transportation network at each
iteration and the updated travel time has obtained and repeat the repeat the
process till all the trips are assigned. The test result is more reasonable. As
you can see that, higher traffic flow can lead to more travel time for the trip.
(i.e. Route 1 Link 2 to 4 & Route 2 Link 1 to 3 + Link 3 to 4)
Route 1 :
Link 1 to 4 Travel time = 100 Traffic Flow = 5200
Link 2 to 4 Travel time = 121 Traffic Flow = 6600
Route 2:
Link 1 to 3 + Link 3 to 4 Travel time = 118 Traffic Flow = 20000
Link 2 to 4 + Link 3 to 4 Travel time = 106 Traffic Flow = 16600
However, this procedure is not practical as any network would typically have
a very large number of trips. It needs to carry out many iteration to close true
equilibrium.

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Appendix A
Regression Model (Production)
Appendix A - Regression Model (Production)

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.911360458
R Square 0.830577885
Adjusted R Square 0.796693462
Standard Error 901.7905257
Observation 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 19933869.24 19933869.24 24.51208583 0.004281361
Residual 5 4066130.761 813226.1522
Total 6 24000000

Cofficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 824.5444802 909.6337945 0.906457615 0.406255808 -1513.743629 3162.83259 -1513.743629 3162.83259
X Varible 1 0.244587353 0.049401924 4.950968171 0.004281361 0.117595664 0.371579041 0.117595664 0.371579041

Table 2: Trip generation data

AM peak period work Regression Modelling
Zone Population
trip productions 9000
16 2000 6500
24 5500 23000 8000 y = 0.2446x + 824.54
R² = 0.8306
33 4500 12000

AM peak period work trip productions

21 8500 27000 7000
52 4000 16000
6000
37 6000 23000
49 4500 12000 5000
Total 35000 119500
4000 Regression Modelling

3000

2000

1000

0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Population
Appendix B
Regression Model (Attraction)
Appendix B - Regression Model (Attraction)

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.917319793
R Square 0.841475603
Adjusted R Square 0.809770724
Standard Error 1042.061474
Observation 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 28820539.42 28820539.42 26.54088651 0.003609485
Residual 5 5429460.581 1085892.116
Total 6 34250000

Cofficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 828.8381743 856.9956568 0.967143961 0.377891059 -1374.139294 3031.815643 -1374.139294 3031.815643
X Varible 2 0.914937759 0.177596269 5.151784789 0.003609485 0.458412015 1.371463504 0.458412015 1.371463504

Table 2: Trip generation data

AM peak period work
Zone
trip attractions
Employment Regression Modelling
16 8500 9000 10000
y = 0.9149x + 828.84
24 7500 5000
R² = 0.8415
33 2250 1500 9000
21 4500 4500
52 3750 3500 8000
AM peak period work trip attractions

37 4250 4000
49 2500 2500 7000
Total 33250 30000
6000

5000
Regression Modelling
4000

3000

2000

1000

0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
Employment
Appendix C
Trip Generation
Appendix C - Trip Generation

Table 1: Population and employment predictions for the year 2020

Zone Population Employment

1 6000 9250
2 22500 3750
3 14500 5000
4 29000 5250
5 16500 2750
6 26500 4500
7 14000 3250
Total 129000 33750

AM peak period work AM peak period work

Zone Population (x) Zone Employment (x)
trip production (Pi) trip attraction (Aj)

1 2292 6000 1 9292 9250

2 6328 22500 2 4260 3750
3 4371 14500 3 5404 5000
4 7918 29000 4 5632 5250
5 4860 16500 5 3345 2750
6 7306 26500 6 4946 4500
7 4249 14000 7 3802 3250
Pi= 0.2445x+824.54 Aj= 0.9149x+828.84
Appendix D
Trip Distribution without New Bridge
Appendix D - Trip Distribution without New Bridge
To Zone (j)
tij 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 4 10 10 31 27 34 33
2 10 4 8 23 19 26 25
3 10 8 4 30 26 33 32
From Zone (i) 4 31 23 30 4 8 9 8
5 27 19 26 8 4 11 10
6 34 26 33 9 11 4 8
7 33 25 32 8 10 8 4

To Zone (j)
f(tij)=(tij)-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Zi = Σ(Aj)f(tij)
1 0.0625 0.0100 0.0100 0.0010 0.0014 0.0009 0.0009 Z1 696
2 0.0100 0.0625 0.0156 0.0019 0.0028 0.0015 0.0016 Z2 477
3 0.0100 0.0156 0.0625 0.0011 0.0015 0.0009 0.0010 Z3 517
From Zone (i) 4 0.0010 0.0019 0.0011 0.0625 0.0156 0.0123 0.0156 Z4 548
5 0.0014 0.0028 0.0015 0.0156 0.0625 0.0083 0.0100 Z5 409
6 0.0009 0.0015 0.0009 0.0123 0.0083 0.0625 0.0156 Z6 485
7 0.0009 0.0016 0.0010 0.0156 0.0100 0.0156 0.0625 Z7 457

To Zone (j)
Tij=(Pi)(Aj)f(tij) / Zi 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 1914 140 178 19 15 14 12
2 1233 3533 1120 141 123 97 81
3 786 563 2857 53 42 38 31
From Zone (i) 4 140 116 87 5082 754 881 858
5 152 140 95 1047 2487 486 452
6 121 95 75 1047 416 4657 895
7 79 63 49 818 311 718 2209
Appendix D - Trip Distribution without New Bridge

To Zone (j)
Iteration 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 1914 140 178 19 15 14 12 2292 2292 1
2 1233 3533 1120 141 123 97 81 6328 6328 1
3 786 563 2857 53 42 38 31 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 140 116 87 5082 754 881 858 7918 7918 1
5 152 140 95 1047 2487 486 452 4860 4860 1
6 121 95 75 1047 416 4657 895 7306 7306 1
7 79 63 49 818 311 718 2209 4249 4249 1
Total 4424 4651 4461 8208 4149 6892 4538
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 2.100 0.916 1.211 0.686 0.806 0.718 0.838

To Zone (j)
Iteration 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 4019 129 216 13 12 10 10 4408 2292 0.520
2 2589 3236 1357 97 99 70 68 7515 6328 0.842
3 1651 516 3461 36 34 28 26 5752 4371 0.760
From Zone (i) 4 293 106 105 3487 608 633 719 5951 7918 1.330
5 319 129 115 719 2005 349 379 4014 4860 1.211
6 254 87 91 719 336 3342 750 5578 7306 1.310
7 167 58 59 561 251 516 1851 3463 4249 1.227
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

To Zone (j)
Iteration 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2090 67 112 7 6 5 5 2292 2292 1
2 2180 2724 1143 82 83 59 57 6328 6328 1
3 1255 392 2630 28 26 21 20 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 390 142 140 4639 809 842 956 7918 7918 1
5 386 156 139 870 2428 423 459 4860 4860 1
6 333 114 119 941 440 4377 982 7306 7306 1
7 204 71 73 689 308 633 2271 4249 4249 1
Total 6838 3666 4355 7256 4100 6359 4751
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.359 1.162 1.241 0.776 0.816 0.778 0.800

To Zone (j)
Iteration 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2840 78 139 5 5 4 4 3075 2292 0.7454
2 2963 3166 1417 63 68 46 46 7769 6328 0.8145
3 1705 456 3263 21 21 16 16 5498 4371 0.7950
From Zone (i) 4 530 165 173 3601 660 655 765 6549 7918 1.2089
5 524 181 173 675 1981 329 367 4230 4860 1.1489
6 453 132 147 731 359 3405 786 6013 7306 1.2151
7 278 83 90 535 251 492 1818 3547 4249 1.1980
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

To Zone (j)
Iteration 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2117 58 104 4 4 3 3 2292 2292 1
2 2413 2579 1155 52 55 37 37 6328 6328 1
3 1356 362 2594 17 17 13 13 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 641 199 209 4354 798 791 925 7918 7918 1
5 602 208 199 776 2276 378 422 4860 4860 1
6 550 161 179 888 436 4137 955 7306 7306 1
7 333 99 108 641 301 589 2178 4249 4249 1
Total 8011 3666 4548 6731 3886 5949 4533
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.160 1.162 1.188 0.837 0.861 0.831 0.839
Appendix D - Trip Distribution without New Bridge

To Zone (j)
Iteration 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2455 67 123 3 3 3 3 2657 2292 0.8626
2 2799 2997 1372 43 48 31 31 7321 6328 0.8644
3 1572 421 3082 14 14 11 11 5125 4371 0.8528
From Zone (i) 4 743 231 249 3643 687 658 776 6987 7918 1.1331
5 698 242 236 649 1959 314 354 4452 4860 1.0917
6 638 187 212 743 375 3440 801 6397 7306 1.1422
7 386 115 129 536 259 490 1827 3742 4249 1.1356
Total 9293 4262 5407 5636 3350 4952 3809
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.998

To Zone (j)
Iteration 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2118 58 106 3 3 2 2 2292 2292 1
2 2419 2590 1186 37 41 27 27 6328 6328 1
3 1341 359 2629 12 12 9 9 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 842 262 282 4128 778 746 879 7918 7918 1
5 762 264 258 709 2138 343 386 4860 4860 1
6 729 213 243 849 429 3929 915 7306 7306 1
7 438 131 146 609 294 557 2074 4249 4249 1
Total 8650 3877 4849 6347 3695 5612 4294
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.074 1.099 1.114 0.887 0.905 0.881 0.886

To Zone (j)
Iteration 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2275 64 118 3 3 2 2 2466 2292 0.9294
2 2599 2846 1321 33 37 24 24 6884 6328 0.9192
3 1440 394 2929 11 11 8 8 4802 4371 0.9103
From Zone (i) 4 905 288 314 3663 705 657 779 7311 7918 1.0830
5 819 290 287 629 1935 302 342 4605 4860 1.0554
6 783 235 270 753 388 3463 811 6702 7306 1.0901
7 471 144 163 540 266 491 1837 3911 4249 1.0863
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

To Zone (j)
Iteration 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2114 59 110 2 2 2 2 2292 2292 1
2 2389 2616 1214 30 34 22 22 6328 6328 1
3 1311 359 2666 10 10 7 7 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 980 312 340 3968 763 712 843 7918 7918 1
5 864 306 303 664 2043 319 361 4860 4860 1
6 853 256 295 821 423 3775 884 7306 7306 1
7 511 156 177 587 289 533 1996 4249 4249 1
Total 9024 4063 5106 6082 3564 5369 4115
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.030 1.048 1.058 0.926 0.938 0.921 0.924

To Zone (j)
Iteration 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2177 62 116 2 2 2 2 2364 2292 0.9697
2 2460 2742 1285 28 32 20 20 6588 6328 0.9605
3 1350 376 2822 9 9 7 7 4580 4371 0.9543
From Zone (i) 4 1009 327 360 3674 716 656 779 7521 7918 1.0527
5 890 321 321 615 1917 294 334 4691 4860 1.0361
6 879 268 312 760 397 3477 816 6910 7306 1.0574
7 527 164 187 543 271 491 1844 4027 4249 1.0550
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Appendix D - Trip Distribution without New Bridge

To Zone (j)
Iteration 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2111 60 113 2 2 2 2 2292 2292 1
2 2363 2634 1234 27 31 19 19 6328 6328 1
3 1289 359 2693 9 9 6 6 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 1062 344 379 3868 754 690 820 7918 7918 1
5 922 332 333 637 1986 304 346 4860 4860 1
6 929 283 330 804 420 3677 863 7306 7306 1
7 556 173 198 573 286 518 1946 4249 4249 1
Total 9232 4186 5279 5920 3488 5217 4003
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.007 1.018 1.024 0.951 0.959 0.948 0.950

To Zone (j)
Iteration 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2125 61 116 2 2 2 2 2309 2292 0.9926
2 2378 2681 1263 26 30 18 18 6414 6328 0.9865
3 1297 365 2756 8 9 6 6 4448 4371 0.9827
From Zone (i) 4 1069 350 388 3680 723 654 779 7644 7918 1.0358
5 928 338 340 606 1905 289 329 4735 4860 1.0265
6 935 288 338 765 402 3486 820 7035 7306 1.0386
7 559 176 202 545 274 491 1848 4096 4249 1.0372
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

AM peak AM peak
period work Population period work Employment
Zone
trip (x) trip attraction (x)

1 production
2309 6000 (Aj)
9292 9250
2 6414 22500 4260 3750
3 4448 14500 5404 5000
4 7644 29000 5632 5250
5 4735 16500 3345 2750
6 7035 26500 4946 4500
7 4096 14000 3802 3250
Total 36681 129000 36681 33750
Appendix E
Trip Distribution with New Bridge
Appendix E - Trip Distribution with New Bridge
To Zone (j)
tij 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 4 10 10 31 27 25 29
2 10 4 8 23 19 25 25
3 10 8 4 25 22 17 21
From Zone (i) 4 31 23 25 4 8 9 8
5 27 19 22 8 4 11 10
6 25 25 17 9 11 4 8
7 29 25 21 8 10 8 4

To Zone (j)
f(tij)=(tij)-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Zi = Σ(Aj)f(tij)
1 0.0625 0.0100 0.0100 0.0010 0.0014 0.0016 0.0012 Z1 700
2 0.0100 0.0625 0.0156 0.0019 0.0028 0.0016 0.0016 Z2 478
3 0.0100 0.0156 0.0625 0.0016 0.0021 0.0035 0.0023 Z3 539
From Zone (i) 4 0.0010 0.0019 0.0016 0.0625 0.0156 0.0123 0.0156 Z4 551
5 0.0014 0.0028 0.0021 0.0156 0.0625 0.0083 0.0100 Z5 412
6 0.0016 0.0016 0.0035 0.0123 0.0083 0.0625 0.0156 Z6 506
7 0.0012 0.0016 0.0023 0.0156 0.0100 0.0156 0.0625 Z7 467

To Zone (j)
Tij=(Pi)(Aj)f(tij) / Zi 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 1901 139 177 19 15 26 15
2 1231 3528 1119 141 123 105 81
3 754 540 2739 73 56 139 70
From Zone (i) 4 139 116 124 5057 751 877 854
5 150 139 132 1039 2468 483 449
6 215 98 270 1004 399 4463 858
7 101 62 112 802 305 704 2164
Appendix E - Trip Distribution with New Bridge

To Zone (j)
Iteration 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 1901 139 177 19 15 26 15 2292 2292 1
2 1231 3528 1119 141 123 105 81 6328 6328 1
3 754 540 2739 73 56 139 70 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 139 116 124 5057 751 877 854 7918 7918 1
5 150 139 132 1039 2468 483 449 4860 4860 1
6 215 98 270 1004 399 4463 858 7306 7306 1
7 101 62 112 802 305 704 2164 4249 4249 1
Total 4491 4623 4673 8135 4117 6796 4490
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 2.069 0.921 1.156 0.692 0.813 0.728 0.847

To Zone (j)
Iteration 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 3933 128 205 13 12 19 13 4323 2292 0.530
2 2548 3251 1294 98 100 76 68 7435 6328 0.851
3 1560 498 3168 51 46 101 59 5482 4371 0.797
From Zone (i) 4 287 107 144 3501 610 638 723 6010 7918 1.317
5 311 128 152 719 2005 351 380 4048 4860 1.201
6 444 91 312 695 324 3248 726 5840 7306 1.251
7 208 57 129 555 248 512 1833 3542 4249 1.199
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

To Zone (j)
Iteration 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2085 68 108 7 6 10 7 2292 2292 1
2 2169 2767 1101 83 85 65 58 6328 6328 1
3 1244 397 2526 40 36 81 47 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 379 140 189 4612 804 841 952 7918 7918 1
5 374 154 183 864 2408 422 456 4860 4860 1
6 556 113 390 869 406 4063 909 7306 7306 1
7 250 69 155 666 297 614 2199 4249 4249 1
Total 7055 3708 4653 7142 4042 6096 4628
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.317 1.149 1.161 0.789 0.828 0.811 0.822

To Zone (j)
Iteration 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2746 78 126 6 5 8 5 2975 2292 0.7704
2 2856 3178 1279 66 70 53 48 7549 6328 0.8382
3 1638 456 2933 32 30 65 39 5193 4371 0.8417
From Zone (i) 4 499 161 220 3638 665 682 782 6647 7918 1.1911
5 492 177 212 681 1993 342 375 4273 4860 1.1375
6 732 130 453 686 336 3297 747 6380 7306 1.1451
7 329 79 180 525 246 499 1806 3663 4249 1.1598
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

To Zone (j)
Iteration 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2116 60 97 4 4 6 4 2292 2292 1
2 2394 2664 1072 55 59 44 40 6328 6328 1
3 1379 384 2469 27 25 55 33 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 594 192 262 4333 792 813 932 7918 7918 1
5 560 201 242 775 2267 389 427 4860 4860 1
6 838 149 519 785 384 3775 855 7306 7306 1
7 382 91 208 609 285 578 2095 4249 4249 1
Total 8262 3742 4869 6588 3817 5661 4385
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.125 1.138 1.110 0.855 0.876 0.874 0.867
Appendix E - Trip Distribution with New Bridge

To Zone (j)
Iteration 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2380 69 108 4 4 5 4 2572 2292 0.8910
2 2692 3033 1189 47 52 39 35 7086 6328 0.8929
3 1551 437 2740 23 22 48 28 4849 4371 0.9015
From Zone (i) 4 668 219 290 3704 694 710 808 7094 7918 1.1161
5 630 229 268 662 1986 340 370 4486 4860 1.0834
6 942 170 576 671 337 3298 741 6736 7306 1.0846
7 429 104 231 521 250 505 1817 3857 4249 1.1016
Total 9293 4262 5407 5636 3350 4952 3809
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.998

To Zone (j)
Iteration 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2120 61 96 3 3 5 3 2292 2292 1
2 2404 2708 1062 42 46 34 31 6328 6328 1
3 1398 394 2470 21 20 43 26 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 746 244 324 4134 775 793 902 7918 7918 1
5 682 248 291 718 2152 368 401 4860 4860 1
6 1022 184 625 728 365 3577 804 7306 7306 1
7 473 115 255 573 275 557 2001 4249 4249 1
Total 8845 3954 5123 6220 3637 5378 4167
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.051 1.077 1.055 0.906 0.920 0.920 0.912

To Zone (j)
Iteration 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2228 66 101 3 3 4 3 2408 2292 0.9519
2 2526 2917 1120 38 42 32 28 6704 6328 0.9439
3 1468 424 2606 19 18 40 23 4598 4371 0.9506
From Zone (i) 4 783 263 342 3744 713 729 823 7397 7918 1.0704
5 717 268 307 650 1979 339 366 4625 4860 1.0510
6 1074 198 659 659 336 3290 734 6951 7306 1.0511
7 497 124 269 519 253 512 1826 3999 4249 1.0624
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

To Zone (j)
Iteration 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2120 63 96 3 3 4 3 2292 2292 1
2 2384 2754 1057 36 40 30 27 6328 6328 1
3 1396 403 2477 18 17 38 22 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 838 282 366 4008 763 780 881 7918 7918 1
5 753 281 322 683 2080 356 384 4860 4860 1
6 1129 209 693 693 353 3459 771 7306 7306 1
7 528 131 286 552 269 544 1940 4249 4249 1
Total 9148 4122 5297 5992 3526 5211 4028
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.016 1.033 1.020 0.940 0.949 0.949 0.944

To Zone (j)
Iteration 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2154 65 98 3 3 4 3 2329 2292 0.9843
2 2421 2846 1079 34 38 28 25 6471 6328 0.9778
3 1418 417 2526 17 17 36 21 4451 4371 0.9820
From Zone (i) 4 852 291 373 3767 724 741 831 7579 7918 1.0447
5 765 291 329 642 1974 338 363 4701 4860 1.0339
6 1146 216 707 651 335 3283 728 7066 7306 1.0340
7 536 136 291 519 255 516 1831 4084 4249 1.0403
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Appendix E - Trip Distribution with New Bridge

To Zone (j)
Iteration 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2120 64 97 3 3 4 3 2292 2292 1
2 2368 2783 1055 33 37 28 25 6328 6328 1
3 1392 409 2481 16 16 35 21 4371 4371 1
From Zone (i) 4 890 304 390 3935 756 774 869 7918 7918 1
5 791 300 340 664 2041 349 375 4860 4860 1
6 1185 223 731 674 347 3394 753 7306 7306 1
7 557 141 303 540 265 537 1905 4249 4249 1
Total 9303 4224 5396 5864 3465 5122 3949
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 0.999 1.009 1.001 0.960 0.965 0.966 0.963

To Zone (j)
Iteration 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Pi Mi
1 2117 64 97 2 3 4 3 2290 2292 1.0010
2 2365 2806 1056 32 36 27 24 6345 6328 0.9972
3 1391 413 2484 16 16 34 20 4373 4371 0.9996
From Zone (i) 4 889 306 391 3780 730 747 836 7679 7918 1.0311
5 790 303 340 637 1970 337 361 4740 4860 1.0255
6 1184 225 732 647 335 3278 725 7125 7306 1.0255
7 557 142 304 518 256 519 1834 4130 4249 1.0288
Total 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Aj 9292 4260 5404 5632 3345 4946 3802
Ni 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

AM peak AM peak
Population Employment
Zone period work period work
(x) (x)
trip trip attraction
1 2290 6000 9292 9250
2 6345 22500 4260 3750
3 4373 14500 5404 5000
4 7679 29000 5632 5250
5 4740 16500 3345 2750
6 7125 26500 4946 4500
7 4130 14000 3802 3250
Total 36681 129000 36681 33750
Appendix F
Logit Models, Bus Ridership & Revenue
Appendix F - Logit Models, Bus Ridership & Revenue

Without Reduction of bus in-vehicle time With Reduction of bus in-vehicle time by 12%
Current characteristics of each mode New characteristics of each mode
Mode Characteristics Car Bus Train Mode Characteristics Car Bus Train
In-vehicle time (min) 44 52 41 In-vehicle time (min) 44 46 41
Out-of-vehicle time 5 11 8 Out-of-vehicle time 5 11 8
(min)
Out-of-pocket cost ($) 9.50 3.80 5.20 (min)
Out-of-pocket cost ($) 9.50 3.80 5.20
DAD 1 0 0 DAD 1 0 0
CPDDA 1 0 0 CPDDA 1 0 0
Vm -18.87 -16.776 -15.714 Vm -18.87 -15.7152 -15.714
Pr (i) 0.0307 0.2490 0.7203 Pr (i) 0.0209 0.4893 0.4899
Production / Attraction 36681 36681 36681 Production / Attraction 36681 36681 36681
Ridership 1125 9135 26420 Ridership 765 17947 17969
Revenue ($) 10691.3 34713.8 137386.0 Revenue ($) 7271.2 68198.7 93436.6

Total Benefit ($) = 68198.7 - 34713.8 = 33484.9

Appendix F - Logit Models, Bus Ridership & Revenue

Vm = 1.1DAD + 0.6CPDDA - 0.17IVTTm - 0.30OVTTm - 1.22OPCINCm

VCar = 1.1*1 + 0.6*1 - 0.17*44 - 0.30*5 - 1.22*9.5 = -18.87
VBus = 1.1*1 + 0.6*1 - 0.17*52 - 0.30*11 - 1.22*3.8 = -16.776
VTrain = 1.1*1 + 0.6*1 - 0.17*41 - 0.30*8 - 1.22*5.2 = -15.714

exp(VCar) exp(-18.87)
Pr (Car) = = = 0.0307
exp(VCar) + exp(VBus) + exp(VTrain) exp(-18.87) + exp(-16.776) + exp(-15.714)
exp(VBus) exp(-16.776)
Pr (Bus) = = = 0.2490
exp(VCar) + exp(VBus) + exp(VTrain) exp(-18.87) + exp(-16.776) + exp(-15.714)
exp(VTrain) exp(-15.714)
Pr (Car) = = = 0.7203
exp(VCar) + exp(VBus) + exp(VTrain) exp(-18.87) + exp(-16.776) + exp(-15.714)

VBus = 1.1*1 + 0.6*1 - 0.17*46 - 0.30*11 - 1.22*3.8 = -15.1752

exp(VBus) exp(-15.1752)
Pr (Bus) = = = 0.4893
exp(VCar) + exp(VBus) + exp(VTrain) exp(-18.87) + exp(-15.1752) + exp(-15.714)
Appendix G
All-or-nothing Assignment
Appendix G - All-or-nothing Assignment

Link Volume, Vij

V14 13000
V24 11000

Link Travel Time, tij

t14 = 22 + 0.015V14 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 22
t24 = 22 + 0.015V24 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 22
t13 = 10 + 0.005V13 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 10
t34 = 8 + 0.005V34 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 8
t23 = 15 + 0.005V23 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 15

From Node 1 to Node 4,

Route 1: Link1 to 4
The free flow travel time = 22
Route 2: Link1 to 3 + Link 3 to 4
The free flow travel time = 18 (Shortest Path)

From Node 2 to Node 4,

Route 1: Link2 to 4
The free flow travel time = 22 (Shortest Path)
Route 2: Link2 to 3 + Link 3 to 4
The free flow travel time = 23

The traffic flow and time in all transport links using All Or Nothing (AOL)
Link Number Link1 to 3 Link1 to 4 Link2 to 3 Link2 to 4 Link3 to 4
Traffic flow 13000 0 0 11000 13000
Traffice time 75 0 0 187 73
Appendix H
Incremental Assignment
Appendix H - Incremental Assignment

Link Volume, Vij

V14 13000
V24 11000

Link Travel Time, tij

t14 = 22 + 0.015V14 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 22
t24 = 22 + 0.015V24 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 22
t13 = 10 + 0.005V13 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 10
t34 = 8 + 0.005V34 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 8
t23 = 15 + 0.005V23 , where T0 (free flow travel time) = 15
Appendix H - Incremental Assignment

From origin 1 to destination 4 (13000 vph) From origin 2 to destination 4 (11000 vph)
First 20% increment 1 to 4 First 20% increment 2 to 4
Route Number Route 1 Route 2 Route Number Route 1 Route 2
Link 1 to 4 1 to 3 3 to 4 Link 2 to 4 2 to 3 3 to 4
Initial Link Time 22 10 8 Initial Link Time 22 15 8
Initial Route 22 18 Initial Route 22 23
Shortest Path No Yes Shortest Path Yes No
Traffic Flow 0 2600 2600 Traffic Flow 2200 0 2600
New Link Time 22 23 21 New Link Time 55 15 21
New Route Time 22 44 New Route Time 55 36

Second 20% increment 1 to 4 Second 20% increment 2 to 4

Route Number Route 1 Route 2 Route Number Route 1 Route 2
Link 1 to 4 1 to 3 3 to 4 Link 2 to 4 2 to 3 3 to 4
Initial Link Time 22 23 21 Initial Link Time 55 15 21
Initial Route 22 44 Initial Route 55 36
Shortest Path Yes No Shortest Path No Yes
Traffic Flow 2600 2600 4800 Traffic Flow 2200 2200 4800
New Link Time 61 23 32 New Link Time 55 26 32
New Route Time 61 55 New Route Time 55 58

Third 20% increment 1 to 4 Third 20% increment 2 to 4

Route Number Route 1 Route 2 Route Number Route 1 Route 2
Link 1 to 4 1 to 3 3 to 4 Link 2 to 4 2 to 3 3 to 4
Initial Link Time 61 23 32 Initial Link Time 55 26 32
Initial Route 61 55 Initial Route 55 58
Shortest Path No Yes Shortest Path Yes No
Traffic Flow 2600 5200 7400 Traffic Flow 4400 2200 7400
New Link Time 61 36 45 New Link Time 88 26 45
New Route Time 61 81 New Route Time 88 71
Appendix H - Incremental Assignment

Fourth 20% increment 1 to 4 Fourth 20% increment 2 to 4

Route Number Route 1 Route 2 Route Number Route 1 Route 2
Link 1 to 4 1 to 3 3 to 4 Link 2 to 4 2 to 3 3 to 4
Initial Link Time 61 36 45 Initial Link Time 88 26 45
Initial Route 61 81 Initial Route 88 71
Shortest Path Yes No Shortest Path No Yes
Traffic Flow 5200 5200 9600 Traffic Flow 4400 4400 9600
New Link Time 100 36 56 New Link Time 88 37 56
New Route Time 100 92 New Route Time 88 93

Fifth 20% increment 1 to 4 Fifth 20% increment 2 to 4

Route Number Route 1 Route 2 Route Number Route 1 Route 2
Link 1 to 4 1 to 3 3 to 4 Link 2 to 4 2 to 3 3 to 4
Initial Link Time 100 36 56 Initial Link Time 88 37 56
Initial Route 100 92 Initial Route 88 93
Shortest Path No Yes Shortest Path Yes No
Traffic Flow 5200 7800 12200 Traffic Flow 6600 4400 12200
New Link Time 100 49 69 New Link Time 121 37 69
New Route Time 100 118 New Route Time 121 106
Appendix I
Data & Information
Appendix I - Data & Information

Table 1: Population and employment predictions for the year 2020

Zone Population Employment
1 6000 9250
2 22500 3750
3 14500 5000
4 29000 5250
5 16500 2750
6 26500 4500
7 14000 3250
Total 129000 33750

Table 2: Trip generation data

AM peak period work AM peak period work
Zone Population Employment
trip productions trip attractions
16 2000 8500 6500 9000
24 5500 7500 23000 5000
33 4500 2250 12000 1500
21 8500 4500 27000 4500
52 4000 3750 16000 3500
37 6000 4250 23000 4000
49 4500 2500 12000 2500
Total 35000 33250 119500 30000
Appendix I - Data & Information

Table 3: Current characteristics of each mode

Mode Characteristics Car Bus Train

In-vehicle time (min) 44 52 41

Out-of-vehicle time
5 11 8
(min)
Out-of-pocket cost ($) 9.50 3.80 5.20