Transportation Planning

Department of Civil Engineering

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology Bhopal
1
 Regional Transportation Planning

• Introduction

• Objectives

• Regional Transport Planning (land-use, household, employment

characteristics, transportation supply; forecasting travel pattern &
travel demand)
 Objectives
• Support economic vitality of the region.

• Increase safety for all users.

• Improve accessibility and mobility for people and freight

• Integration and connectivity of the transportation system between

modes.

• Efficient operation & management of the regional transportation

system.
 Factors affecting travel pattern

1. Socio-economic characteristics (total no. of workers, no. of

agricultural workers, industrial workers, service sector, gross zonal
income, avg. per capita income)

2. Demographic characteristics (total zonal population, urban

population, gender ratio)

3. Traffic & Travel characteristics (O-D matrix by mode & purpose,

freight movement, traffic flow in passenger)
 Passenger & Freight Movement
• Road network inventory survey
• Speed & Delay
• TVC
• O-D survey
• Commuter survey
• Bus terminal survey
• Freight operator survey
• Social impact survey
• IPT
 Transport Models

• Trip Generation Model

• Gravity Model

• Simulation model

• Econometric model
 Regression Model
1. Developed model between the traffic volume of each mode
(separately) and the relevant economic indicator.
2. Passenger vehicles are related with NSDP (Net State Domestic
Product), population and per capita income.
3. Freight vehicle related with GDP or NSDP.
 Traffic forecast based on elasticity of traffic
demand
Urban traffic classification:

1. Urban traffic (I-I)

2. Regional traffic (I-E)

3. Regional traffic (E-I)

4. Through traffic (E-E)

O-D data: traffic pattern; Split ADT

 Example

A= Zones 1-12 (I-I)

B1= Zones 1-12 to zones 13-20 (I-E)

B2= Zones 13-20 to zones 1-12 (E-I)

C = Zones 13-20 (E-E)

 Traffic movement on the Project Road
Type of Cars Buses 2-Wheelers Two axle MAVs LCVs
Traffic truck
A 5768 476 4655 2540 343 2445

B1 2035 430 129 1609 508 894

B2 2165 830 133 1950 603 907

C 2670 1271 25 3317 1391 265

Total 12635

A% 45.7

B1% 16.1

B2% 17.1

C% 21.1
Veh. Type Elasticity E’ R2 Growth Income NSDP (%) Combine Traffic Traffic
(E) from upto of growth d rate growth growth
2004 populatio (%) growth rate rate
n factor %
(%)
Cars Regression 2.9 0.94 2.12 2.58 4.75 E*C 13.78

Buses Regression 1.6 0.88 2.12 2.58 4.75 E*C 7.6

2-Wheelers Regression 2.6 0.97 2.12 2.58 4.75 E*C 12.35
Trucks Regression 1.4 0.93 2.12 2.58 4.68 4.75 E*N 6.55

GDP = 5.45 %
Growth in rural local traffic = 100 × {(1 + Growth in Population) × (1 + Growth in Non-urban
VKT/light vehicle) × (1 + Growth in light vehicle ownership/person)-1}
 Development Scenarios
• After the development of transport models, it is required to estimate
future travel demand.
• It is required to develop scenarios w.r.t. future year targeted
population and employment, as envisaged in the regional plan.
• For the preparation of integrated transport plan for NCR, there are
different scenarios envisaged w.r.t. various combination of population
and employment located at different part of the region.
• It forms the basis of future planning parameters for transport
infrastructure development.
 Transport Network Alternative
• It is important for achieving the policies of spatial development,
including the distribution of population & employment.

• In tune with the developed scenarios, alternate transport system &

network can be conceptualized.

• It includes system of road, commuter rail, metro, airports.

• Combination of both road & rail-based system.

Evaluation of alternatives & selection of best
Criteria for choosing best transport plan for implementation:
1. Passenger vehicle (km by modes) & passenger vehicle (hrs. by
mode)
2. Persons (km by modes) & person vehicle (hrs. by mode)
3. Goods vehicle (kms) and goods tonnage (kms)
4. Goods vehicle (hrs) and goods tonnage (hrs)
5. Energy consumption by modes
6. Emissions (C02) by modes
• Testing of alternatives after assigning of future estimated traffic to
various routes.

• Advantage & disadvantage of all the transport network alternatives.

• Best network need to be selected.

 Implementation & Coordination of regional
transport plan
In order to translate regional transport policies, programme and
proposals into implementation plan, the most important part is to
allow participatory planning, where the following factors could form
the impetus for development:
 Needs for planning, coordination, monitoring and
execution
1. Prepare and determine a cooperation policy and an implementation plan
to support the realization of integrated regional development.
2. Other tasks include establishing development planning policies for all
sectors within the region, resolving economic, social and spatial
development issues raised by one of the governments and acting as
facilitator to attribute disputes among the local governments.
3. Coordination among government agencies is required to institute an
organization that has a strong leadership supported by technical
capability, authority and funds for planning upto the implementation.
4. The empowerment of the community or stakeholders in the planning
process is necessary to ensure that the interests of individuals,
communities are recognized and dealt with in an equitable manner in
the planning process.
• Institutional coordination

• Supporting resources

• Implementation mechanism
Trip Distribution
 Trip Distribution

Generated trips from each zone is need to be distributed to all other

zones based on the choice of destination. This is called trip distribution
which forms the second stage of travel demand modeling.
There are a number of methods to distribute trips among destinations;
and two such methods are growth factor model and gravity model.
Growth factor model is a method which respond only to relative
growth rates at origins and destinations and this is suitable for short-
term trend extrapolation.
In gravity model, we start from assumptions about trip making
behavior and the way it is influenced by external factors. An important
aspect of the use of gravity models is their calibration, that is the task
of fixing their parameters so that the base year travel pattern is well
represented by the model.
 Trip matrix

Source: https://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1100_LnTse/204_lnTse/plain/plain.html
 Growth factor methods
1. Uniform growth factor
2. Average growth factor
3. Detroit method
4. Fratar method
5. Furness method
 Uniform growth factor
A single growth factor is calculated for the entire area under study and
used to multiply all the present interzonal movements to produce the
estimates of future interzonal movements.
Result from Trip generation analysis
Trips A B C D
Produced Present 75 45 90 40
Future 150 85 135 120
Attracted Present 60 50 75 65
Future 90 150 150 100
 Trip Distribution Matrix

D A B C D
O
A 20 20 20 15

B 10 10 15 10

C 20 15 25 30

D 10 5 15 10

𝑻𝒊𝒋 = 𝒕𝒊𝒋 ×F F = Future total trips/Present total trips

 Present Trip Distribution Matrix

D A B C D
O
A 40 40 40 30

B 20 20 30 20

C 40 30 49 59

D 20 10 30 20
 Average Factor

𝑭𝒊 + 𝑭𝒋
𝑻𝒊𝒋 = 𝒕𝒊−𝒋 ×
𝟐

𝑻𝒊 𝑻𝒋
𝑭𝒊 = 𝑭𝒋 =
𝒕𝒊 𝒕𝒋
Growth factor for production zone (Fi):
FA = 150/75 = 2
FB = 85/45 = 1.89
Fc=135/90=1.5
Fd=120/40=3

Growth factor for attraction zone (Fj):

FA = 90/60 = 1.5
FB = 150/50 = 3
Fc=150/75=2
Fd=100/65=1.54
 First Iteration
D A (1.5) B(3) C(2) D(1.54) p(i)
O

A (2) 20*(2+1.5)/ 20*(2+3)/2 40 27 152

2 =50
=35
B (1.89) 17 25 30 18 90

C(1.5) 30 34 44 46 154

D(3)23 23 15 38 23 99

a(j) 105 124 152 114 495

 D A B C D p(i) P(i) E(i) =
O
A 35 50 40 27 152 150 =150/152
=0.99
B 17 25 30 18 90 85 .95

C 30 34 44 46 154 135 .88

D 23 15 38 23 99 120 1.22

a(j) 105 124 152 114 495

A(j) 90 150 150 100 490

Ej .86 1.21 .99 .88 490/495=.

99
 2nd Iteration
D A(.86) B(1.21) C(.99) D(.88) p(i) P(i) E(i) =
O
A(.99) 32.4 39.6 25.3 154 152.3 150
33 55 40 26
B(.95) 15.3 29.1 16.5 90 87.9 85
16 27 30 17
C(.88) 26.1 35.5 39.27 40.5 146 141.4 135
27 36 42 41
D(1.22) 23.9 18.2 41.9 24.15 110 108.2 120
24 19 42 25
a(j) 500 489.8

A(j) 90 150 150 100 490

Ej 490/495
𝑻𝒊−𝒋 = 𝒕𝒊−𝒋 (𝑭𝒊 × 𝑭𝒋 )/𝑭 Detroit Method
D A (1.5) B(3) C(2) D(1.54) Pi Growth
O Factor
A(2) 20*(2*1.5)/1.9 20 20 15 156.6 0.96 150
6=31 61.22 40.81 23.57
B(1.89) 10 10 15 10 87.15 0.98 85
14.46 28.92 28.92 14.85
C(1.5) 20 15 25 30 131 1.03 135
22.96 34.44 38.26 35.34
D(3) 10 5 15 10 115.41 1.03 120
22.96 22.96 45.92 23.57
ai

Aj 90 150 150 100 490.16 490

Growth 0.98 1.07 0.97 1.03

Factor (Ej)
 First Iteration
D A(.98) B(1.006) C D p(i) P(i) E(i) =
O
A (0.95) 31*(.95*.98)/.99 150
=29.15

B 85

C 135

D 120

a(j)

A(j) 90 150 150 100 490

Ej
 Furness Method
J 1 2 3 4 pi Pi Fi=Pi/pi
I
1 10 20 15 18 63 140 2.22

2 21 16 17 14 68 150 2.2

3 30 21 25 27 103 200 1.94

4 10 9 16 13 48 100 2.08

aj 71 66 73 72

Aj 150 120 180 160

 First Iteration
J 1 2 3 4
I
1(2.22) 10*2.22=22.2 44.4 33.3 39.96

2(2.2) 21*2.2=46.2 35.2 37.4 30.8

3(1.94) 58.2 40.74 48.5 52.38

4(2.08) 20.80 18.72 33.28 27.04

aj 147.4 139.06 152.48 150.18

Aj 150 120 180 160

Fj’ 1.02 0.86 1.18 1.07

 2nd Iteration

J 1(1.02) 2(0.86) 3(1.18) 4(1.07) Pi’ Pi Fi’

I
1 22.64 38.18 39.29 42.76 142.87 140 0.98

2 47.12 30.27 44.13 32.95 154.47 150 0.97

3 59.36 35.04 57.23 56.05 207.68 200 0.96

4 21.25 16.08 39.30 28.93 105.56 100 0.95

 3rd Iteration
J 1 2 3 4
I
1(.98) 22.19 37.42 38.50 41.90

2(0.97) 45.71 29.36 42.81 31.96

3(0.96) 56.99 33.63 54.94 53.80

4(0.95) 20.19 15.28 37.34 27.48

aj 145.08 115.69 173.59 155.14

Aj 150 120 180 160

Fj’’ 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.03

 Furness Method

D 1 2 3 4 Desired
O Future Trips
(Total)
1 8 3 16 15 147
2 6 9 8 5 42
3 10 8 3 8 32
4 2 4 7 12 30
Desired 39 24 68 120 251
Future Trips
(Total)
 Fratar Method
𝒕𝒊𝒋 𝒇𝒊 𝒇𝒋 𝒍𝒊 + 𝒍𝒋
𝑻𝒊𝒋 =
𝟐 tij = No. of vehicle trips between zone i and j in base year.
Tij= No. of vehicle trips between zone i and j in horizon year
𝒑𝒉𝒊 𝒂𝒉𝒋
𝒇𝒊 = 𝒇𝒋 = fi, fj = Growth factor
𝒑𝒃𝒊 𝒂𝒃𝒋
li, lj = locational factor

𝒑𝒃𝒊 (Similarly for 𝒍𝒋 )

𝒍𝒊 = 𝒏
σ𝒋=𝟏 𝒕𝒊𝒋 𝒇𝒋

Fratar method is the distribution of horizon year trips from a zone which is proportional to the
base year trip distribution pattern modified by the growth factors of the zones under
consideration.
Locational factors are the reciprocals of the average attracting forces of all surrounding zones.
Until fi and fj are close to 1, iteration process will continue.
 Fratar Method
D 1 2 3 4 Pi Fi
O

1 - 20 24 36 80 2

2 20 - 28 28 76 1

𝒕𝟏𝟐 𝒇𝟏 𝒇𝒋 𝒍𝟏 + 𝒍𝟐 3 24 28 - 12 64 3
𝑻𝟏𝟐 =
𝟐
4 36 28 12 - 76 1.5

Aj 80 76 64 76 296

Fj 2 1 3 1.5

Future Trips 160 76 192 114

 1st Iteration

D 1 2 3 4 Tij Fi Pi
O
L1=80/(20*1+24*3+36*1.5) 1 - 20.2 88.56 59.94 168.7 2 160

L2=76/(20*2+28*3+28*1.5)
2 20.2 - 47.88 21.42 89.5 1 76

T12= 20*1*2((.55+.46)/2)=20.2
3 88.56 47.88 - 33.48 169.92 3 192

4 59.94 21.42 33.48 - 114.84 1.5 114

L3= 64/94=.68
Tij 168.7 89.5 169.92 114.84 542.96 542
L4=76/136=0.56
Fj 2 1 3 1.5
542.96/542=1.002
Aj 160 76 192 114
 Growth factor models
Advantages
1. They are easily understood and applied with an estimation of growth
factors.
2. The simple process of iteration quickly generates a balance between the
observed and the computed trip ends.
3. Simple in operation and application and can be used to distribute trips by
different modes for different purposes.
Disadvantages
1. These models don’t take effect of the change of accessibility and travel
impedance between the zones.
2. Historical patterns may change over time
 Synthetic Models

1. Gravity Model

2. Tanner’s Model

3. Opportunity Model
1.Intervening Opportunity Model
2.Competing Opportunity Model
 Gravity Model
• Synthetic models of trip distribution.

• It observe the causes of movement between places, develop

relationships between trips and measures of attraction, generation and
travel resistance.

• This model is able to synthesize the base year flow.

• It is based on Newton’s concept of gravity;

Source: TU Delft, Trip Distribution
 Assumptions
Number of trips between an origin and a destination zone is
proportional to:
• a production ability factor for the origin zone
• an attraction ability factor for the destination zone
• a factor depending on the travel costs between the zones
 Trip between the O & D zones is dependent
𝐾 × 𝑀1 × 𝑀2
𝐹= 2 upon the relative attraction between the zones
𝑑𝑖𝑗
in an area as well as on the spatial separation
𝑲×𝑷𝒊 ×𝑨𝒋
𝑻𝒊𝒋 = [Alan Voorhees] between them which can be measured by an
𝒅𝟐𝒊𝒋
appropriate function of either distance, time or
generalized cost.

Where,
Pi= No. of trip Production
Aj= No. of trip Attraction
dij= Distance b/w two zones
K= socio-economic adjustment factor
 Gravity Model
Gravity model, states that the number of trips between two zones is directly proportional to
the number of trip attractions generated by the zone of destination and inversely
proportional to a function of time of travel between the two zones.

Fij= Impedance or friction factor

= 1/dij2
 Friction Factor
It represents the impedance of travel for the persons performing trips for different
duration of time or distances.

It can be estimated as travel time factor which can be expressed as the average
area-wide effect of spatial separation on trip interchange between zones.

Travel function developed from best fitted model between observed and estimated
trip pattern.
Source: TU Delft Trip distribution