Course: CT4801 Date: 4 November 2004

Name: Transportation & Spatial Modeling Time: 9h00 – 12h00

For this exam you are allowed to use a pen, paper, calculator and a formula sheet.
Books and lecture notes cannot be used during the exam.

The exam consists of 7 questions for which in total 100 points can be gained. It is
allowed to answer the questions in Dutch.

Question 1: The trip generation can be computed using different models, such as
[10 points] regression models, cross-classifications models, and binary logit
models. They can be formulated on a zonal, household, or individual
level.

(a) Suppose we would like to compute the trip productions based on a

regression model. Give three examples of variables on a household
level that could be used. [3]

- household income
- household size
- car ownership
- … (multiple answers may be correct)

(b) Give one advantage and one disadvantage of using the cross-
classification model compared to the regression model. [3]

Advantage:
- no need to assume a linear form
Disadvantage:
- each cell in the cross-classification needs a minimum amount of
observations, which may be difficult.

In a binary logit model, the trip generation is determined by

sequentially computing the probability of making additional trips.
Suppose that the binary logit model is applied 4 times successively to
compute the probability for an individual of making additional trips,
given by the following numbers:

• The probability of a person to make one or more trips is 90%.

• For people who decide to make one or more trips, the probability of
making one trip is 50% (such that the probability of making two or
more trips is 50%).
• For people who decide to make two or more trips, the probability of
making two trips is 80% (such that the probability of making three
or more trips is 20%).
• For people who decide to make three or more trips, the probability
of making three trips is 100% (such that the probability of making 4
or more trips is 0%).

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 (c) Determine the average number of trips made by an individual using
the outcomes of the binary logit model. [4]

Probability of making no trips: P(0) = 0.1

Probability of making 1 trip:
P(1) = P(1+) * P(1) = 0.9 * 0.5 = 0.45
Probability of making 2 trips:
P(2) = P(2+) * P(2) = (0.9 * 0.5) * 0.8 = 0.36
Probability of making 3 trips:
P(3) = P(3+) * P(3) = (0.9 * 0.5 * 0.2) * 1 = 0.09

Average number of trips being made =

0 * P(0) + 1 * P(1) + 2 * P(2) + 3 * P(3) = 1.44 trips

Question 2: We can use the gravity model for computing the trip distribution.
[10 points] Suppose that the trip productions are known and that the attractions are
unknown.

(a) Formulate the singly-constrained gravity model and define its

variables and parameters. [3]

Tij = ai Pi X j Fij , where Fij = f (cij ).

Tij = number of trips from i to j
Pi = trip production from zone i
X j = trip attraction potential from zone j
Fij = accessibility of zone i from zone j
cij = travel cost/impedance from zone i to j
ai = scaling/balancing factor
f () = trip distribution function

After having performed the trip distribution, we can determine the

modal split for the trips in each origin-destination pair. In other words,
the trip distribution and mode choice are performed in sequence.
Another way of determining the modal split is to perform a
simultaneous trip distribution and modal split.

(b) How does your formulation in (a) change when including the modal
split into the gravity model? Explain your answer. [3]

The trip distribution functions will be mode specific and also the travel
costs will be different per mode. This would lead to a number of trips
per mode. The formulation would become:

Tijm = ai Pi X j Fijm , where Fijm = f m (cijm ).

The new subindex m denotes mode m. Note that the trip production and
the trip attraction potential are not mode specific.

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 (c) Name two advantages of a simultaneous trip distribution/modal
split model over a sequential model. [4]

Advantages:
- (from a behavioral point of view) It resembles more closely the true
choice behavior, people make destination and mode choices usually
simultaneously and not sequentially.
- (from a methodological point of view) There is no need to determine
travel costs for all modes together.

Question 3: Three cities (A, B, and C) have been connected by a transportation

[20 points] network as indicated in the following figure. All links are bi-directional
links, except for the link north of city C which is a one-way road. The
number next to each link represents the link length (in km). Assume
that all intrazonal distances are 1 km.

1 1
2
A B
1 2
1 1 1

2 C 2

The productions and attractions of each city are given in the next table.

City Production Attraction

A 150 100
B 100 120
C 65 80

(a) Determine the impedance (skim) matrix cij which represents the
distances between each pair of cities i and j. [3]

⎡ 1 2 3⎤
c = ⎢⎢ 2 1 3⎥⎥
⎢⎣ 2 3 1⎥⎦

(b) Suppose that an arbitrary decreasing trip distribution function

f (cij ) is used for determining the origin-destination (OD) trip
matrix. Explain why the average trip length will be lower than 2
kilometers. [4]

In the impedance matrix c we can see that distances of 1km, 2km, and
3km are all equally represented (all 3 times). When performing a trip
distribution, due to the decreasing trip distribution function,
destinations closer by (i.e. shorter distances) are more likely than

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destinations further away. Hence, more travelers will choose
destinations with a travel distance of 1 than destinations with a travel
distance of 3. Hence, the average trip length, which is an average of all
travel distances weighted by the amount of travelers, will be smaller
than 2km.

(c) Determine the OD trip matrix using a doubly constrained gravity

model using f (cij ) = 1/ cij as the trip distribution function. (Perform
only one iteration) [6]

⎡1 12 13 ⎤
F = ⎢⎢ 12 1 13 ⎥⎥
⎢⎣ 12 13 1⎥⎦
First, productions and attractions need to be balanced, as the totals are
not equal. The total production is 315, while the total attraction is 300.
Usually the trip production can more accurately be estimated, hence we
will balance towards the trip productions. Hence, we scale the
attractions by 315/300. We put the accessibility values and the
productions/attractions in a table:

A B C Production
A 1 0.5 0.33 150
B 0.5 1 0.33 100
C 0.5 0.33 1 65
Attraction 105 126 84 315

Scaling such that the productions are satisfied:

A B C Production
A 81.82 40.91 27.27 150
B 27.27 54.55 18.18 100
C 17.73 11.82 35.45 65
Attraction 105 126 84 315

Scaling such that the attractions are satisfied:

A B C Production
A 67.74 48.05 28.31 150
B 22.58 64.07 18.88 100
C 14.68 13.88 36.81 65
Attraction 105 126 84 315

The OD matrix after 1 iteration is:

⎡67.7 48.1 28.3⎤

T = ⎢⎢ 22.6 64.1 18.9 ⎥⎥
⎢⎣14.7 13.9 36.8⎥⎦

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 (note: more iterations are needed in order to satisfy both the
productions and attractions)

(d) Compute and sketch the trip length frequency distribution using
your results from (c). (If you do not have the answer to question (c)
then make up an OD matrix yourself) [4]

Number of travelers traveling 1 km: 67.7 + 64.1 + 36.8 = 168.6

Number of travelers traveling 2 km: 48.1 + 22.6 + 14.7 = 85.3
Number of travelers traveling 3 km: 28.3 + 18.9 + 13.9 = 61.1

Hence, the trip length frequency distribution looks like:

180.00

160.00

140.00

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1 2 3

d i st ance ( km)

(e) Compute the average trip length for all travelers. [3]

The average trip length for all travelers =

(168.6 * 1 + 85.3 * 2 + 61.1 * 3) / (168.6 + 85.3 + 61.1) = 1.66 km.

Question 4: Consider a car network consisting of a single origin-destination pair

[15 points] (A,B) for which three different non-overlapping route alternatives are
available. The travel time on each route depends on the number of cars
using the route. The relationship between the route travel time tr
(expressed in minutes) and the route flow f r (cars/hour) is for each
route r given by the following functions:

2 f1
t1 ( f1 ) = 4 + ,
100
2
⎛ f ⎞
t2 ( f 2 ) = 5 + ⎜ 2 ⎟ ,
⎝ 100 ⎠
t3 ( f3 ) = 14.

Note that we assume that route 3 has a very large capacity such that
congestion will not occur on this route (it always has a travel time of 14
minutes).

The total travel demand from A to B is given by 1800 (cars/hour).

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(a) Give the definition of a deterministic user-equilibrium [3]

[Wardrop’s equilibrium law]

In equilibrium, no traveler can obtain a lower route travel time by
unilaterally changing routes.
or:
[Wardrop’s first principle]
In a deterministic user-equilibrium, all used routes have equal travel
time and there is no unused route with a lower travel time.

(b) Compute the deterministic user-equilibrium route flows from A to

B. Explain your answer. [6]

Route 3 has a travel time of 14 minutes. If all routes are used in the
equilibrium, then also routes 1 and 2 should have a travel time of 14
minutes. In that case:

2 f1
t1 = 4 + = 14 ⇒ f1 = 500
100
2
⎛ f ⎞
t2 = 5 + ⎜ 2 ⎟ = 14 ⇒ f 2 = 300
⎝ 100 ⎠

Consequently, route 3 will get the remaining flow:

f3 = 1800 − 500 − 300 = 1000

(c) Compute the deterministic system optimal route flows from A to B.

Explain your answer. [Hint: Make use of marginal travel time
functions] [6]

First, derive the marginal travel time functions:

dt1 ( f1 ) 2f 2 4f
t1* ( f1 ) = t1 ( f1 ) + f1 = 4 + 1 + f1 = 4 + 1
df1 100 100 100
2 2
dt2 ( f 2 ) ⎛ f ⎞ 2 f2 ⎛ f ⎞
t2* ( f 2 ) = t2 ( f 2 ) + f2 = 5 + ⎜ 2 ⎟ + f2 = 5 + 3 ⎜ 2 ⎟
df 2 ⎝ 100 ⎠ 10000 ⎝ 100 ⎠
dt3 ( f3 )
t3* ( f 3 ) = t3 ( f 3 ) + f3 = 14 + 0 ⋅ f 3 = 14
df 3
By using these marginal travel time functions instead of the regular
travel time functions to find a user-equilibrium solution, we can find
the system optimal route flows. Hence, again all travel times will be 14
(if all routes are actually used). This leads to:

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 4 f1
4+ = 14 ⇒ f1 = 250
100
2
⎛ f ⎞
5 + 3 ⎜ 2 ⎟ = 14 ⇒ f 2 = 100 3 ≈ 173.2
⎝ 100 ⎠

Therefore, the remaining travelers will choose route 3:

f3 = 1800 − 250 − 100 3 ≈ 1376.8

Question 5: The hypothesized transportation network below connects origin A to

[13 points] destination B. The travel demand from A to B is 15 (veh/hour). The
link travel times ta (in minutes) depend on the link loads qa
(veh/hour). Note that all links have identical link travel time functions,
except for link 3 that has a longer freeflow travel time (for example, the
maximum speed on this link may be lower).

t1 = 5 + q1 t2 = 5 + q2
t5 = 5 + q5
A B
t3 = 15 + q3 t 4 = 5 + q4

(a) Determine the route flows in an all-or-nothing assignment. [3]

Define route 1 as links 1, 2, and 5. Define route 2 as links 3, 4, and 5.

In an all-or-nothing assignment, all travelers choose the same route. Let
us assume that they all take the shortest route (without congestion).
This would be route 1. This route would get 15 (veh/h) while route 2
gets 0 flow.

(b) Determine the route flows in a stochastic assignment, assuming that

route choice is based on a logit model with scale parameter 0.1. [4]

Letting tr denote the travel time of route r, in the stochastic logit

assignment the route flow probabilities will be:

exp(−0.1tr )
Pr(r ) = , r = 1, 2.
∑ exp(−0.1ti )
i

This means that route 1 gets a flow of

exp(−0.1 ⋅15)
⋅15 = 10.97,
exp(−0.1⋅15) + exp(−0.1⋅ 25)

while route 2 gets 15-10.97 = 4.03 (veh/h).

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 (c) Determine the deterministic user-equilibrium route flows and route
travel times in an iterative fashion (using the method of successive
averages). [6]

It is important to note that the iterative process will be on a route level,

and not on a link level. If f r denotes the flow on route r, then the travel
time for route r consists of the corresponding link travel times.

The link travel times ta can be expressed in terms of these route flows
as follows:

t1 (q1 ) = 5 + q1 = 5 + f1
t2 (q2 ) = 5 + q2 = 5 + f1
t3 (q3 ) = 15 + q3 = 15 + f 2
t4 (q4 ) = 5 + q4 = 5 + f 2
t5 (q5 ) = 5 + q5 = 5 + ( f1 + f 2 )
(Note that link 5 is used by both routes)

Hence, the route travel times tr are:

t1 = (5 + f1 ) + (5 + f1 ) + (5 + f1 + f 2 ) = 15 + 3 f1 + f 2
t2 = (15 + f 2 ) + (5 + f 2 ) + (5 + f1 + f 2 ) = 25 + f1 + 3 f 2

Using the following table for the iterative scheme, in which wr

expresses an intermediate (all-or-nothing) solution. We will stop the
iterative process whenever the route travel times on all used routes are
(approximately) equal.

i f1 f2 t1 t2 w1 w2 α
1 0 0 15 25 15 0 1
2 15 0 60 40 0 15 0.5
3 7.5 7.5 45 55 15 0 0.33
4 10 5 50 50 - - -

After 4 iterations the route travel times are both equal to 50, so we have
found a deterministic user-equilibrium in which route 1 obtains a flow
of 10 and route 2 a flow of 5 (veh/h).

Question 6: In the classical model by Von Thünen the land use for different
[13 points] agricultural commodities can be explained by the distance to the central
marketplace. A similar analysis can be made for land use and buildings
in a city by using so-called ‘bid-rent curves’, as sketched below.

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 rent

bid-rent curve

distance to city center

(a) What does a bid-rent curve indicate? [4]

A bid-rent curve indicates how much someone (a company or a

household) is willing to pay (bid) for rent for a specific building in the
city, depending on the distance to the city center. It indicates a surplus
available for paying the rent, hence it is the maximum price that one is
willing to pay.

Suppose different demands for buildings are available, e.g. there is a

demand for (1) retail and commercial buildings, (2) apartments, and (3)
single houses. For each demand a bid-rent curve can be determined.

(b) Sketch in one figure the bid-rent curves for retail/commercial

buildings, apartments, and single houses into a figure and indicate
in the figure (using Von Thünen’s theory) how far from the city
center each of the building types will be build. [6]

rent retail/
commercial

apartments

houses

distance from city center

retail/ apartments houses
commercial

(c) What happens to the bid-rent curves if another sub-center develops

in the city with a certain distance from the city center? Motivate
your answer. [3]

If a new sub-center appears, then it becomes attractive to be close to

this sub-center as well, hence the bid-rent curves will be higher in the
proximity of this sub-center, reflecting the fact that one will be willing
to pay more rent to be close to this sub-center.

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 rent

distance from city center

distance to
sub-center

Question 7: Households and firms are typically the main decision-makers in land
[19 points] use models. Both make location decisions; households decide where to
live, and firms decide where to locate their company. Their location
decisions are based on different attributes, for example accessibility.

(a) Give two attributes that are important for households and two
different attributes that are important for firms in their location
choice behavior. [4]

For firms:
- amount of customers in the neighborhood
- distance to public transport and freeways
- when moving, distance from the current location
- etc.

For households:
- travel distance to employer
- proximity of a shopping center
- distance to public transport and freeways
- etc.

Accessibility can be quantified in many different ways. Suppose we

are interested in computing the accessibility of zone i to all other zones
j. Assume that each zone j has a potential M j and that the distance
from zone i to each zone j is defined by cij .

(b) Formulate a potential accessibility measure for computing the

accessibility level from a certain zone i. Explain your answer. [5]

A zone i is more accessible if the distances cij to all other zones j is

shorter and the potentials (masses) M j higher. Therefore, we can
define the following potential accessibility measure:

Ai = ∑ M j f (cij ),
j

where f () is a decreasing function, e.g. f (cij ) = 1/ cij .

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 (c) Which other two decision-makers (besides households and firms)
can be distinguished in spatial planning, and how do their
decisions affect land use? [4]

Developers:
They decide where they will invest in new buildings. This affects the
available choice locations for firms and households.

Government:
They can decide which land is available for construction of buildings
and can decide where new infrastructure is being built. This affects the
land available for construction and infrastructure. They can also set
taxes to influence land use.

(d) How does land use influence the transportation system? [3]

The location of firms and households influence the transportation

system. If there are more firms and households in a certain (non-
isolated) area, then there will be a lot of traffic from and to this area,
affecting the level of service of the transportation system. Hence, the
activities of firms and households affect the accessibility.

(e) How does the transportation system influence land use? [3]

If the level of service of a certain area is good, hence the area becomes
more accessible, then it becomes attractive for firms and households to
relocate to this area, yielding an increase in activities. Also, if the level
of service is bad, the local authorities may decide to invest in more
infrastructure.

Bonus: [Only answer this question if you have sufficient time!]

[5 points]
Consider again the problem in Question 4. Individual car drivers will
not behave system optimally out of free will. Without any incentive to
the car drivers, the route flows will be according to the deterministis
user-equilibrium flows computed in 4(b). However, the government
could prefer that car drivers choose route flows according to the
deterministic system optimal flows computed in 4(c). In order to let car
drivers behave optimal for the system, the government could introduce
tolls on the routes. Suppose that the value-of-time (VOT) of car drivers
is 0.2 euro per minute. This means that a car driver is willing to pay 0.2
euro for 1 minute less travel time.

Question:
How much should the tolls (in euros) on each route be such that the car
drivers behave system optimally?

In the deterministic user-equilibrium (DUE) the travel times were all

14 minutes. In the deterministic system-optimum, the travel times can

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be computed by using the DSO route flows computed in 4(c):

2 ⋅ 250
t1 (250) = 4 + =9
100
2
⎛ 100 3 ⎞
t2 (100 3) = 5 + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = 8
⎝ 100 ⎠
t3 (1800 − 250 − 100 3) = 14

The travelers on choose route 3 will not choose this route out of free
will, as routes 1 and 2 are faster. In order to make all travelers behave
system-optimally, they should face the marginal costs instead of their
individual travel times. If all routes ‘cost’ 14 minutes, then the system
optimum would also be a user-equilibrium. In order to make route 1
‘cost’ 14 minutes, 5 extra minutes should be put on route 1. Instead of
extra travel time, this can be substituted by a toll. This toll should
represent these 5 minutes extra travel time. Since the VOT of travelers
is assumed to be 0.2 euro per minute, 5 minutes travel time is valued
the same as 1 euro toll. For route 2, 6 minutes of extra travel time is
needed, yielding a toll of 1.2 euro. For route 3 no toll is needed.

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