CHAPTER FIVE

SPECIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

5.1 Introduction
We already have visited probability distributions in the general cases. In this chapter we
shall concentrate on special cases of those distributions that are commonly used in daily
life applications. We shall start our discussion with discrete probability distributions
before we go on continuous cases.

5.2 Special Discrete Probability Distributions

5.2.1 Binomial Distribution
In some situations experiments are characterized by only two outcomes success or failure,
such experiments are called binomial experiments. In this case the probability of success
is given by p, and 1 – p is the probability of failure. If this experiment is repeated n-times
with the number of successes x, out of n total outcomes, we define the binomial
distribution as follows:

Definition 5.1 A discrete random variable X is said to have a binomial distribution with
parameters n and p if its probability distribution is given by
 n
P X  x     p x 1  p 
n x
x  0,1, 2,, n
 x
The expected value of this random variable is given by E  X   np , and the standard
deviation is given by SD X   np1  p 

Example 5.1
Produced items are to be inspected and checked whether they are good or defective. The
probability that an item chosen is defective is 0.003. Find the probability that out of 6
items inspected
(a) Only one is defective
(b) At least one is defective
(c) No defective item be found

Solution
This is a binomial situation with p  0.003 and n  6 . Note that the success here is the
number of defective items.
 (a) Required P X  1 , then
 6
P X  1    0.003 0.997   0.01773
5

1
(b) Required P X  1 , then
 6
P X  1  1  P X  1  1  P X  0  1    0.003 0.997   1  0.997 6  0.01787
0 6

 
0

(c) Required P X  0 , then

 6
P X  0    0.003 0.997   0.997 6  0.9821 .
0 6

 0

5.2.2 Poisson Distribution

We may be interested in determining the probability of occurrence of a certain event in a
given period of time. For instance, number of calls per hour, number of road accidents per
year and so on. This situation can be best described by a Poisson distribution.

Definition 5.2 A discrete random variable X has a Poisson distribution with a parameter 
if its probability function is given by
e   x
P X  x   , x  0,1, 2,
x!
Where  , is a known constant called the mean occurrence per unit interval of time.

If X has a Poisson distribution, then E  X    and SD X   

Example 5.2
The number of customers attended at NBC MLIMANI follows a Poisson distribution with
mean 8 per hour. Find the probability that in any given hour
(a) Exactly 6 customers will be attended
(b) No customer will be attended
(c) At least 2 customers will be attended

Solution
This is a Poisson situation with   8
(a) Required P X  6 , then
 e  8 86
P X  6    0.1221
6!

(b) Required P X  0 , then

e  8 80
P X  0    e 8  0.0003355
0!

(c) Required P X  2 , then

P X  2  1  P X  2  1  P X  0  P X  1
e  8 8 0 e  8 81
 1 
0! 1!
 1  0.0003355  0.002684
 0.9970

5.3 Poisson Approximation to Binomial Distribution

If the number of repetitions n are getting large while the probability of success p is very
small (e.g. 0.005, 0.001 etc.), then the Poisson distribution can be used to approximate a
Binomial distribution. In this case, the approximated distribution becomes
e  x
P X   , x  0,1, ..., n
x!
where,   E  X   np also Var  X     np  SD X   np

Example 5.3
The probability of getting a defective tire is estimated at 5%. Find the probability that out
of 50 tires produced,
(a) Exactly one will be defective
(b) At least one will be defective

Solution
Let X be the number of defective produced.
This is a binomial situation with n  50 and p  5%  0.05
Using Poisson approximation to binomial, we have   np  50  0.05  2.5
(a) Required P X  1 , but
 e 2.5 2.51
P X  1   0.205212
1!
(b) Required P X  1 , but
e 2.5 2.5 0
P X  1  1  P X  1  1  P X  0  1   0.917915
0!

5.4 Special Continuous Probability Distributions

There are several continuous probability distributions, but we will discuss only the
uniform and normal distributions because of their importance in statistical decisions.

5.4.1 Uniform Probability Distribution

This is the simple continuous probability distribution whose applications are on
simulation and parameter estimations.

Definition 5.3 A continuous random variable X is called a uniform random variable if and
only if its probability density is given by
 1
 for   x  
U x; ,       
 0
 elsewhere
It is important to remember that for a continuous distribution, one can find the probability
of a random variable in a specified interval. This is therefore implying that the probability
of a random variable at a single value is always zero. That is for any value x  X ,
P X  x   0 .
The probability between any two values a and b such that   a  b   is given by
ba
Pa  X  b  
 

Theorem 5.1 The mean and variance of a uniformly distributed random variable are
given by
 
EX   and Var  X      2
1
2 12

Example 5.4
A random variable X has a uniform distribution given by
 1
 for 2  x  5
f x    3

0 elsewhere
(a) Find the following (i) P X  4 (ii ) P X  3 iii  P1  X  10
(b) Find the expected value and the standard deviation of X.

Solution
Given   3 ,   5 , then,
53 2
a  P X  3  P3  X  5   .
52 3
b P X  4  0 because of a single point .
52
c  P1  X  10  P1  X  2  P2  X  5  P5  X  10  0  0  1.
52

5.4.2 Normal Distribution

We shall discuss a bit more on this distribution

Definition 5.4 A continuous random variable X has a normal distribution with parameters
 and  if its probability density is given by
1  x  2
  
f x  
1  
e 2 ,   x  
 2
If X has a normal distribution, then E  X    and Var  X    2
 
The common notation for a normal random variable is X ~ N  ,  2 . Meaning that a
random variable X is normally distributed with mean  and variance  2

The normal distribution curve has the following properties.

(a) it is bell-shaped ranging from negative to positive infinity
(b) it is symmetric about the arithmetic mean 
(c) the area under the curve is unity
The normal curve is shown in the figure below;
 f(x)

The normal density is very complicated to handle but the shape of the normal curve is
more promising and also interested.

In order to answer probability questions concerning with the normal random variable, X,
we use a standardized distribution with a standard normal variable Z. The values of the
standard normal variable are obtained from standard normal tables which are designed in
different forms.

The standardization is done using the transformation

X 
Z

Where the variable Z is such that E Z   0 and Var Z   1

 X  x  x
For instance, the question P X  x  becomes P   or P Z  
      

5.4.3 Uses of standard normal tables

Consider a standard normal table which gives the probability of the form P0  Z  a  . In
this case most probability questions should be re-phrased in order to satisfy this
inequality.

The following are examples of probability questions based on the afore mentioned form
a  PZ  a   0.5  P0  Z  a 

b  PZ  a   PZ  a   0.5  P0  Z  a  Because of symmetry

c  P a1  Z  a 2   P0  Z  a1   P0  Z  a 2 

d  Pa1  Z  a 2   P0  Z  a 2   P0  Z  a1 

Example 5.5
Use the standard normal table to evaluate the following probabilities

a P0  Z  1.25 b PZ  2.21 c P 3.01  Z  0.5 d  P1.0  Z  1.4

Solution
a  P0  Z  1.25  0.3944

b  PZ  2.21  0.5000  P0  Z  2.21  0.5000  0.4864  0.9864

c  P 3.01  Z  0.5  P0  Z  3.01  P0  Z  0.5  0.4987  0.1915  0.6902

d  P1  Z  1.4  P0  Z  1.4  P0  Z  1.0  0.4192  0.3413  0.0779

Example 5.6
A random variable X has a normal with mean 12 and variance 16. Find the following
probabilities
a P X  10 b P X  10 c P8  X  14 d  P X  15

Solution
Given   12,  2  16    4
  X   10  12 
a  P X  10   P    PZ  0.5  0.5  P0  Z  0.5
  4 
 0.5  0.1915  0.6915

 X   10  12 
b  P X  10  P    PZ  0.5  PZ  0.5
  4 
 0.5  P0  Z  0.5  0.5  0.1915  0.3085

 8  12 X  12 14  12 
c  P8  X  14   P   
 4 4 4 
 P 1  Z  0.5  P0  Z  1.0   P0  Z  0.5
 0.3413  0.1915  0.5328

 X  12 15  12 
d  P X  15  P    PZ  0.75  0.5  P0  Z  0.75
 4 4 
 0.5  0.2734  0.2266
Example 5.7
The incomes in thousands of dollars of a given company are normally distributed with
mean 20 and the standard deviation of 5. Find the probability that a selected income will
be
(a) More than twenty four thousand dollars.
(b) Anywhere between eighteen and twenty five thousand dollars.

Solution
Let X be a random variable representing an income of a given company
In this we have   20 and   5
(a) Required P X  24 , then
 24  20 
P X  24   P Z    PZ  0.8
 5 

 P X  24  0.5  P0  Z  0.8  0.5  0.2881  0.2119

 (b) Required P18  X  25 , then
 18  20 25  20 
P18  X  25  P Z 
 5 5 
 P 0.4  Z  1.0 

 P18  X  25  P0  Z  0.4   P0  Z  1.0   0.1554  0.3413  0.4967

5.5 Normal approximation to Binomial and Poisson Distributions

In this section we shall see the situations whereby discrete probability distributions of
binomial and Poisson are approximated to normal. Since these are discrete distributions,
the concept of continuity corrections should be considered.

5.5.1 Approximating Binomial Distribution

We have seen that the binomial distribution is applied if there are only two occurrences
success and failure. It is however, suitable for small number of trials (sample size) n. For
large sample sizes such that both np  5 and npq  5 , a normal distribution becomes a
good approximate of the binomial situation. In this case,   np and  2  npq implying
that   npq . Hence, the standard normal variable, Z , becomes

X  X  np
Z 
 npq
Since binomial distribution is a discrete distribution while the normal is continuous there
is a need of continuity correction. This is done by adding or subtracting 0.5 to the number
of successes depending on the nature of the inequality. See the following table for
illustrations;
 Discrete case Continuity corrected case
P X  6  P X  6.5
P X  6  P X  5.5
P X  6  P5.5  X  6.5
P4  X  8 P3.5  X  8.5

Example 5.8
The probability of defective tire is 8%. Find the probability that out of 400 tires inspected,
at most 20 will be defective.

Solution
Given p  8%  0.08 and n  400 implying that
  0.08  400  32 ,   400  0.08  0.92  5.43
Then,
 20.5     20.5  32 
P X  20  P X  20.5  P Z    P Z    PZ  2.12
    5.43 
Therefore, PZ  2.12  0.5  P0  Z  2.12  0.5  0.4830  0.0170

5.5.2 Approximating Poisson distribution

We have seen that the Poisson distribution is applied if we have the average numbers of
occurrences in a specified interval of time,  . It is however suitable for small values of 
and small number of trials (sample size) n. For large sample sizes and if   5 , the normal
distribution becomes a good approximate of the Poisson situation. Similar to binomial,
large sample sizes make the computation of probabilities using the Poisson formula very
tedious. In this case,    and  2   implying that    . Hence, the standard
normal variable, Z , becomes
X  X 
Z 
 
Example 5.9
In a certain automobile plant, the number of work stoppages per day due to equipment
problems in a production process is 12. What is the probability of having less than 15
stoppages in any working day?
Solution
Let X be the number of stoppages during a production process.
This is a Poisson situation with   12 and n  15 .
Using normal approximation to Poisson, we have   12,   12  3.46
Then,
 14.5  12 
P X  15  P X  14.5  P Z    PZ  0.72
 3.46 

Therefore, PZ  0.72  0.5  P0  Z  0.72  0.5  0.2642  0.7642

5.6 Sampling Distributions

5.6.1 Introduction
We start our discussion by defining several concepts used in the study of sampling.

Definition 5.5 Sampling is the technique used to select the individual members of a
population to make a sample.

Definition 5.6 A population is a set of all individuals under consideration.

Definition 5.7 A sample is the subset of a population.

Definition 5.8 A random sampling is the sampling procedure in which each member of a
population has a known chance of being selected.

The most commonly used sampling procedure is a simple random sampling which is
defined as follows.
Definition 5.9 Simple random sampling is a sampling technique whereby each individual
member of a population has an equal chance of being selected.
We are going to discuss the most applicable sampling distributions. These include the
distribution of the arithmetic mean, Chi-square distribution, student’s t – distribution and
F – distribution.

5.6.2 Distribution of the arithmetic mean X

 
Let X ~ N  ,  2 . In this case we need to find the expected value and variance of X . i.e

E X  and Var X  given that

1
X 
n
 X i where n is the sample size.
Now,
1  1
E X   E   X i    E  X i  , by the properties of E and Σ operators
n  n
Let E  X i    for any i , then
1 n
1
 E  X i   
1
  n    , since  is constant,
n n i 1 n
Therefore, E X   

1  1
Var X   Var   X i   2 Var  X  , by the properties of Var and Σ operators
i
n  n
Let Var  X i    2 for each i and that X i ' s are independent, then
2
Var X  
n
1 1
n2
 2 
i 1 n2
n 2

n
 2 
 
It is concluded that if X ~ N  ,  2 then X ~ N   , 
 n 
The square root of the variance of X is called the standard error of X , given by

SE X   Var X  
n

Hence the standardized normal variable Z in this case is given by

X  x X 
Z  
SE X  
n
Example 5.10
A random variable X is normally distributed with mean 8 and variance 25. A sample of 36
observations yields x  7.5 . Find
(a) The standard error of this sampling distribution.
(b) The probability that the sample mean is greater than 9.

Solution
The following information are given
  8 ,  2  25 , n  36 , x  7.5
(a) We need to find SE X  , but

SE X  
5 5
   0.833
n 36 6
(b) We need to find PX  9 , then
 x   98 
PX  9  P Z    P Z    PZ  1.20
 SE X    0.833 
But,
PZ  1.20  0.5  P0  Z  1.20  0.5  0.3849  0.1151

5.6.3 The Chi – Squared Distribution for sampling

Definition 5.9 If s 2 is the variance of the sample of size n taken from a normal

population of mean  and variance  2 , then the random variable C 

n  1s 2 has a
2
chi-square distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom.
Degrees of freedom can be defined as the number of free scores minus the number of
parameters used in the particular distribution.
Chi-square distribution is used in estimation as well as testing for hypotheses concerning
with the population variance. These concepts are discussed in the next chapters.

5.6.4 The t-Distribution

Definition 5.10 If C and Z are independent random variables, C has a chi-square
distribution with d  n  1 degrees of freedom, and Z has a standard normal distribution,
then the ration
Z
T
C
d
has a t-distribution with d degrees of freedom.

Given that Z 
X 
and C 
n  1s 2 , then the formula for T is given by
 2
n

T
X 

n  1 s 2
 n  1 2
n
X  s
 
 
n
X  
 
 s
n
X 

s
n

Therefore,
X 
T ~ t n  1
s
n
This distribution is highly used in estimating and hypotheses testing of population means
in cases whereby the population variances are not known and the sample sizes are small.
In most statistical applications, a sample is considered to be small if its size n  30 .

5.6.5 The F Distribution

Another distribution that plays an important role in connection with sampling from
normal populations is the F distribution, named after Sir Ronald Fisher, one of the most
prominent statisticians in the world. Originally, it was studied as the sampling distribution
of the ratio of two independent random variables with chi-square distributions, each
divided by its degrees of freedom, the structure that will be presented and applied in this
manual. We therefore ignore probability density of the F distribution.

Definition 5.11 If U and V are independent random variables having chi-square

distributions with d1  n1  1 and d 2  n2  1 degrees of freedom, then the ratio
U
d1
F
V
d2
is a random variable having an F distribution with d 1 and d 2 degrees of freedom.
The F distribution is used in the statistical inference concerning the variances of two
independent normal populations.
We know that
n1  1s12 n2  1s 22
U and V 
 12  22
Then, under the assumption that the variances of the two populations are equal, that is
 12   22 we have the following result
s12
F ~ F n1  1, n2  1
s 22
Applications of the above distributions are discussed in the next chapters.