SFL/METU Fall 2020

DBE
RHO5
UPPER-INTERMEDIATE GROUP
Before you read:
Have you ever heard of the term “the butterfly effect”? What is it? Can you give an example?
Do you know who coined the term?
The Butterfly Effect in Pop Culture
1Some scientists see their work make headlines, but MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz watched his work
become a catch phrase. He created one of the most evocative notions ever to leap from the lab into
popular culture: the butterfly effect, the concept that small events can have large, widespread
consequences. In the 2004 movie The Butterfly Effect Ashton Kutcher travels back in time, altering his
troubled childhood in order to influence the present, though with dismal results. In 1990’s Havana,
Robert Redford, a math-wise gambler, tells Lena Olin, “A butterfly can flutter its wings over a flower in
China and cause a hurricane in the Caribbean. They can even calculate the odds.” Such borrowings of
Lorenz’s idea might seem accurate to inexperienced viewers, but they share one major problem: They get
his insight precisely backwards. The larger meaning of the butterfly effect is not that we can easily track
such connections, but that we can’t. How can we definitively say what caused a storm if it could be
something as slight as a butterfly? Lorenz’s work gives us a fresh way to think about cause and effect but
does not offer easy answers.

2Pop culture references to the butterfly effect may be bad physics, but they are a good barometer of how
the public thinks about science. They expose the growing gap between what the public expects from
scientific research, that is, more precise answers about the world we live in, and the realms of uncertainty
into which modern science is taking us. The butterfly effect is a deceptively simple insight extracted from
a complex modern field. Lorenz claimed that the large effects of tiny atmospheric events pose both a
practical problem, by limiting long-term weather forecasts, and a philosophical one, by preventing us
from isolating specific causes of later conditions. The innumerable interconnections of nature, Lorenz
noted, mean a butterfly’s flap could cause a tornado — or, for all we know, could prevent one. Similarly, if
we make even a tiny alteration to nature, we shall never know what would have happened if we had not
disturbed it because subsequent changes are too complex to restore the previous state.

3So, a principal lesson of the butterfly effect is the opposite of Redford’s line: It is extremely hard to
calculate such things with certainty. There are many butterflies out there. A tornado in Texas could be
caused by a butterfly in Brazil, Bali, or Budapest. Realistically, we can’t know. It’s impossible for humans
to measure everything infinitely accurately. When a small change matters greatly, it means the world is
radically unpredictable. Contrary to the common belief about scientific research, our ability to analyze
and predict the workings of the world is inherently limited. However, in the popular imagination, one little
butterfly has become a metaphor for the surprising long chains of events. A SmartMoney.com market
analysis from 2007 refers to Lorenz and then suggests that hypothetical problems at Sony could affect a
string of shippers, retailers and investors: “One butterfly, in this case a Japanese butterfly, sets off the
entire chain.” Even when they are applied to society rather than nature, such claims are doubtful.

4That we imagine the butterfly effect would explain things in everyday life, however, reveals a strong
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desire to validate ideas through science. The metaphor speaks to our desire that the world should be
comprehensible — that everything happens for a reason and that we can pinpoint all those reasons,
however small they may be. However, nature itself challenges this expectation. It is not certain cause and
effect but probability that controls how scientists understand many systems, from subatomic particles to
storms. People understand that small things can make a big difference, but they make errors about the
physical world. They want to attach a specific cause to events and cannot accept the randomness of the
world. Thus, global warming may make big storms, but we cannot definitively say that it caused Hurricane
Katrina. Science helps us understand the universe, but as Lorenz showed, it sometimes does so by
revealing the limits of our understanding.

A. What do the following refer to?

1. Such borrowings of Lorenz’s idea (para. 1) : ______the results of Lorenz notion ?__________

2. it (para. 1) : ______the reason ?_______________________

3. They (para. 2) : ____pop culture ?_______________________________

4. The metaphor (para. 4): _______butterfly effect ?______________________________

5. does so (para. 4) : _______helps us_________________________

B. Answer the following questions using the information from the text.

1. How does Lorenz differ from other scientists?

_____His work became a catch prase.

_____________.

2. The writer criticizes The Butterfly Effect and Havana because they suggest that ____ They
get Lorenz’s insight precisely backwards ______________.

3. According to para. 2, people rely upon science to give them a) _______precise answer about
the world we live in

while, in reality, science is taking us into

b) ____realms of uncertainty_________________.

4. According to para. 2, why might it be risky to interfere with nature?

______ because subsequent changes are too complex to restore the previous state

__.

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5. What does the writer mean by “There are many butterflies out there.”

_____There are many tiny reasons which may result some important stuff________.

6. According to para. 3, what is the common belief about scientific research?

_____________________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________.

7. According to para. 4, what expectation does nature challenge?

_____________________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________.

8. Scientists understand many systems, from subatomic particles to storms, through

___________________________________.

9. Which of the following would the writer agree with?

a) Lorenz’s work hardly deserves to make the headlines or to become a catch phrase.
b) In a way, Havana succeeds in reflecting Lorenz’s idea more accurately than The Butterfly Effect.
c) That global warming leads to hurricanes exemplifies the true nature of the butterfly effect.
d) Most people are unaware of the unpredictability and randomness of the world they live in.