Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654

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Sustainable Cities and Society

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scs

Decarbonizing or illusion? How carbon emissions of commercial building

operations change worldwide
Liming Chen a, 1, Minda Ma b, 1, 2, *, Xiwang Xiang a
a
School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, PR China
b
Building Technology and Urban Systems Division, Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: To lead the low-carbon transition in global buildings, this study is the first to use the generalized Divisia index
Carbon abatement method (GDIM) to identify the factors driving carbon emissions and assess the decarbonization performance in
Commercial building operations commercial building operations (CBOs) of sixteen countries during 2000–2019. Results show that (1) while the
Decarbonization efficiency
global carbon emissions from CBOs have increased at a modest rate of 0.9%/yr, this trend runs counter to the
Generalized Divisia index method
Building electrification
declining emissions in the U.S. (-1.1%/yr) and the significant growth in China (14.4%/yr), which can be
attributed to the impact of economy-related factors. (2) The U.S. and China, as the largest emitters, contributed
66.8% of the samples’ decarbonization of CBOs (919.1 million tons of carbon dioxide). (3) Most countries’ CBOs
had a decarbonization efficiency level of less than 10%, except for Spain (27.8%). Spain excelled in both areas of
per capita and per floor area with an average efficiency of nearly 30%. Moreover, ridge regression successfully
confirms the stability of GDIM results and it should be noted GDIM has limitations in characterizing the end-use
activity. Overall, this study tracks the historical decarbonization of global CBOs and offers benchmarks for
different emitters to forecast the dynamic of building emissions along with economic booms.

emissions (BP, 2022). The rapid development of the service sector

economy is expected to drive an increase in operational carbon from
1. Introduction
commercial buildings in the upcoming decade, posing a significant
threat to the achievement of the carbon neutral goal (Liang et al., 2022).
Achieving carbon neutrality by the middle of this century is crucial
Therefore, immediate and substantial decarbonization efforts for CBOs
for meeting the Paris Agreement targets to limit global temperature rise
globally are critical (Liu et al., 2022).
to 1.5◦ (Dong et al., 2020). To this end, the United Nations Framework
Recent international studies by Camarasa et al. (2022), Wang et al.
Convention on Climate Change has set a goal of achieving 100% net-zero
(2021) have demonstrated that CBOs present the great potential for
emissions from newly-built buildings by 2030 worldwide, and from all
cost-effective carbon abatement, as noted by Jing et al. (2022). Deter­
buildings by 2050 at the latest, including commercial buildings
mining the factors shaping carbon abatement in CBOs is essential for
(UNFCCC, 2021). As key emitters with significant decarbonization po­
decarbonization evaluation (Li et al., 2022). While some studies have
tential, commercial buildings play a vital role in achieving global carbon
explored this topic for specific countries (Zhang et al., 2022) or regions
neutrality and completing the “last mile” of this effort (Ma et al., 2022).
(Rose et al., 2021), and for residential buildings (Ma et al., 2022), a
However, the building sector shares 37% of energy-related carbon
global perspective on historical carbon abatement assessments for CBOs
emissions worldwide, with commercial building alone contributing 10%
is currently lacking. Such an assessment is an essential prerequisite for
[including 3% of direct and 7% of indirect emissions (UNEP, 2021)].
exploring the pathway to net-zero emissions in CBOs on a global scale
Currently, carbon emissions from commercial building operations
(Li et al., 2022). Thus, to address these gaps, the following three chal­
(CBOs) reached approximately 3.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2)
lenges should be considered regarding global CBOs.
(Zhang et al., 2023), accounting for about 10% of global carbon

Abbreviation: CBOs, commercial building operations; GDIM, generalized Divisia index method; GDP, gross domestic product; LMDI, logarithmic mean Divisia
index; UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme; USD, United States dollar.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: maminda2020@tsinghua.org.cn, maminda@lbl.gov (M. Ma).
1
These authors contributed to the work equally and should be regarded as co-first authors.
2
Homepage: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=240qUyIAAAAJ&hl=en

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104654
Received 8 November 2022; Received in revised form 27 March 2023; Accepted 13 May 2023
Available online 14 May 2023
2210-6707/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
L. Chen et al.
Nomenclature
C carbon emissions of commercial building operations
c carbon emissions per floor area (carbon intensity)
cg carbon emissions per GDP
cp carbon emissions per capita
cs carbon emissions per added value in the service
industry
E energy consumption
e energy consumption per floor area (energy intensity)
es energy consumption per added value in the service
industry
F commercial floor area
G GDP
g GDP per capita
Gs added value in the service industry
K emission factor
kgCO2 kilograms of carbon dioxide
kgoe kilograms of oil equivalent
MtCO2 million tons of carbon dioxide
Mtoe million tons of standard oil equivalent
P population size
S industry structure
• How has operational carbon changed worldwide along with its
related factors?
• What are the gaps in historical carbon abatement across different
economies?
• How can we better reduce global operational carbon in the age of
carbon neutrality?
In addressing the issues above, this work is the first to present a
carbon abatement assessment of CBOs globally for the last two decades.
Specifically, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) is used to
identify the factors affecting carbon emissions and to assess carbon
abatement from 2000 to 2019. Thereafter, the efficiency of carbon
abatement is explored on the basis of the results of abatement calcula­
tions. Moreover, the stability analysis of the GDIM outputs is proposed
via the ridge regression analysis. At last, solutions to better reduce
operational carbon of future commercial buildings are presented.
As for the most important contribution, the present study uses the
GDIM, an improved method of the index decomposition analysis, to
analyze the operational carbon of commercial buildings worldwide for
the first time. This study addresses the need for a tool to measure
decarbonization performance across various emitters’ building opera­
tions in the context of global net-zero transition. It offers a dependable
reference and considers numerous factors, especially including socio­
economic factors, which have received little attention in the literature
but are crucial to consider. Furthermore, the GDIM’s stability is verified
and tested through an elasticity analysis of each factor’s contribution via
the ridge regression approach. Finally, the estimated carbon abatement
efficiency can serve as a benchmark for carbon neutrality targets and as
a reference for nationally determined contributions to CBOs.
The following sections of this paper are structured as follows. Sec­
tion 2 performs a literature review. Section 3 describes the method and
data, including a description of the decomposition model for carbon
emissions of CBOs, definitions of variables, and data collection. Section
4 provides empirical results, including changes in CBOs globally in terms
of carbon emissions and historical carbon abatement. Section 5 con­
cludes with a further discussion of three aspects. Section 5.1 evaluates
the performance of carbon abatement efficiency. Section 5.2 presents
the stability analysis of the GDIM outputs. Section 5.3 proposes solutions
to better decarbonize the CBOs. Finally, Section 6 proposes the main
2
Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
findings of this study and directions for future research.
2. Literature review
The energy use of commercial buildings has been extensively studied
(Chen et al., 2022), and the associated carbon emissions have gained
significant attention in the Post-Paris era (Khan et al., 2021). While
many studies have assessed or predicted carbon mitigation in building
operations at the city scale (Dong & Zhang, 2023; Yang et al., 2023) or
national scale (Zhang et al., 2019), the decarbonization of commercial
buildings at the global level has received limited attention. Lu and Lai
(2020) emphasized the need for research on carbon emissions from
commercial buildings, and Bass and New (2023) demonstrated that
decarbonization of CBOs is essential to mitigate environmental pres­
sures in the building sector. Moreover, the consideration of chance
constraints is crucial in system optimization, as highlighted in recent
studies on energy systems (Zeynali et al., 2020) and power systems
(Khaksari et al., 2021), as well as by Mianaei et al. (2022).
Decomposition analysis has been extensively used to assess the im­
pacts of certain factors on changes in indicators (You et al., 2023),
especially to study energy (Li et al., 2022) and emissions changes (Li
et al., 2022), including index decomposition analysis (Xu & Ang, 2014)
and structure decomposition analysis (Su & Ang, 2012), which have
differences and similarities (Wang et al., 2017). Later, the logarithmic
mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method was proposed (Ang,
2005) and it is a commonly used model for CO2 emission abatement
assessment (Zhang et al., 2021), as LMDI is easy to calculate and pro­
duces no residual in the decomposition process (You et al., 2023).
However, some scholars have also identified that existing exponential
decomposition methods, including the LMDI, have some obvious
shortcomings (Chen et al., 2023). The exponential decomposition
method, which relies heavily on Kaya identity (Yan et al., 2017), makes
each factor formally interdependent, and the decomposition results
depend on the choice of influencing factors (Ang, 2015), leading to
different forms of factor decomposition that may yield contradictory
decomposition conclusions (Wang & Zhou, 2018). In addition, the
existing exponential decomposition methods are limited in their ability
to integrate the influence of multiple absolute and relative factors on
results (Kaltenegger, 2020), which is a limitation when exploring carbon
emission factors (Shao et al., 2016). Therefore, Vaninsky (2014) pro­
posed the GDIM, which provides a more comprehensive and precise
analysis of the actual contributions of various influencing factors to
changes in the target variable. The method compensates for shortcom­
ings of selecting interdependent factors in existing exponential decom­
position models, and its decomposition results distinguish the
correlations of all factors without creating double counting problems
(Wu et al., 2021).
The above content discusses the carbon emissions from commercial
buildings and the decomposition analysis on carbon emissions, but two
gaps still need to be addressed.
Regarding the identification of factors affecting the carbon emission
changes, the decomposition analysis has been widely used across
different emission sectors. While the LMDI is often the first choice for
such analysis (You et al., 2021), its drawbacks include several aspects,
such as its sensitivity to the choice of reference year, the potential for
double counting of effects, and the challenge of accurately quantifying
some of the key parameters. Thus, there is a need for additional research
to identify alternative approaches that can complement or improve upon
the LMDI method in carbon emission assessment.
Regarding the historical carbon abatement of commercial buildings
worldwide, commercial buildings have much higher carbon abatement
potential than residential buildings (Zhang et al., 2022), implying that
commercial buildings’ historical abatement characteristics are worthy
of study and that assessing carbon abatement efficiency is crucial to
promoting global carbon neutrality (Ma & Cai, 2020). In addition, as a
major component of operational carbon released by the building (Li
L. Chen et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654

et al., 2023), carbon emissions of CBOs have not been adequately Ei /Gsi = (Ci / Gsi )/(Ci / Ei ) (2)
studied (Wang et al., 2021), and such a study has not yet been proposed
for the operation of global commercial buildings. Gsi /Gi = (Ci / Pi )/(Ci / Gsi ) (3)
To address the aforementioned gaps, this study aims to use the GDIM
to investigate historical carbon abatement and analyze the abatement Gi /Pi = (Ci / Pi )/(Ci / Gi ) (4)
efficiency of CBOs globally. Correspondingly, this study makes the
following two contributions: Ei /Fi = (Ci / Fi )/(Ci / Ei ) (5)
The GDIM is employed in this study to investigate the changes in
factors that influence global carbon emissions from CBOs for the first where i represents the sample country (i = 1, 2…, 16); C represents
time. GDIM allows for the quantification of the contribution of 14 fac­ carbon emissions; E represents energy consumption; Gs represents added
tors, comprising of five absolute and nine relative factors, which cannot value in the service industry; G represents GDP; P represents population
be achieved by other existing index decomposition methods. As a result, size; and F represents commercial floor area. Meanwhile, K = C/E rep­
this study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the changes resents the emission factor; cs = C/Gs represents carbon emissions per
in historical carbon emissions associated with different types of factors. added value in the service industry; cp = C/P represents carbon emis­
Especially, the GDIM can offer benchmarks for different emitters to track sions per capita; cg = C/G represents carbon emissions per GDP; es = E/
the dynamic of building emissions along with economic booms. Gs represents energy consumption per added value in the service in­
Abatement efficiency is introduced in this study based on GDIM re­ dustry; S = Gs/G represents industry structure; g = G/P represents GDP
sults to establish a framework for better assessing the carbon abatement per capita; c = C/F represents carbon emissions per floor area (carbon
characteristics of CBOs. Efficiency levels are calculated based on three intensity); and e = E/F represents energy consumption per floor area
aspects, including the total carbon abatement efficiency, carbon abate­ (energy intensity). GS , E, G, P, and F are five absolute factors, whereas K,
ment intensity efficiency, and carbon abatement per capita efficiency. It cs , cg , S, es , cp , g, c, and e are nine relative factors. Eqs. (1)–(5) can be
is important to note that each country differs in terms of economic converted into the following for each sample.
development, building stock, and geographic location. Therefore, eval­
C = GS ⋅cs (6)
uating historical abatement only in absolute terms is limited, and it
makes sense to introduce abatement efficiency to better measure the gap
ψ 1 = GS ⋅cs − E⋅K = 0 (7)
in decarbonization across different emitters. Additionally, the assess­
ment results can be used as a reference to plan the climate policy and ψ 2 = GS ⋅cs − G⋅cg = 0 (8)
decarbonization solutions for the building sector.
ψ 3 = GS ⋅cs − P⋅cp = 0 (9)
3. Method and data
ψ 4 = GS ⋅cs − F⋅c = 0 (10)
3.1. Generalized Divisia index method
ψ 5 = GS − G⋅S = 0 (11)
The Divisia index method is a wide-ranging method for identifying
the effects of changes in contributing economic indicators (Divisia, ψ 6 = E − GS ⋅es = 0 (12)
1926). Vaninsky (2014) refined the approach and constructed the GDIM,
which does not depend on each other factor, allowing for a more ψ 7 = G − P⋅g = 0 (13)
comprehensive and accurate analysis of actual contributions of different
factors to carbon emission changes. Based on the fundamentals of the ψ 8 = E − F⋅e = 0 (14)
GDIM and carbon emission features of CBOs, this study uses five For ease of presentation, the contribution of factor X to the change in
different types of carbon intensity to characterize the carbon emissions carbon emissions is assumed to be represented by function C(X). Eqs.
of CBOs, which cover the carbon emissions per added value in the ser­ (6)–(14) construct a Jacobian matrix ΦX consisting of the relevant fac­
vice industry (cs ), carbon emissions per energy consumption (K), carbon tors as follows:

⎛ ⎞T
cs GS − K − E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
⎜ cs GS 0 0 − cg − G 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ cs GS 0 0 0 0 0 0 − cp − p 0 0 0 0 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎜ cs GS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 − c − F 0 ⎟
ΦX = ⎜
⎜ 1
⎟ (15)
⎜ 0 0 0 − S 0 − G 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ⎟⎟
⎜ − es 0 1 0 0 0 0 − Gs 0 0 0 0 0 0 ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎝ 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 − g 0 − P 0 0 0 ⎠
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 − e 0 − F

emissions per capita (cp ), carbon emissions per floor area (c), and carbon
emissions per gross domestic product (GDP), marked as cg . The above
accepted carbon intensity can be obtained from a classic literature
studying carbon emissions of commercial buildings (Ma et al., 2017). In
light of the above analysis, the relation between carbon emissions and
related factors can be formulated as follows:
Ci = Gsi ⋅(Ci / Gsi ) = Ei ⋅(Ci / Ei ) = Gi ⋅(Ci / Gi ) = Pi ⋅(Ci / Pi ) = Fi ⋅(Ci / Fi )
(1)
The Jacobi matrix comprises all first-order partial derivatives of the
decomposition factor and relates each small change in the decomposi­
tion factor to the effect on carbon emissions. Hence, taking into account
the interconnectedness of the different factors, according to principles of
the GDIM, Eq. (16) can represent the factorial decomposition of carbon
emission changes.

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L. Chen et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654

∫
( )
ΔCi [X|Φ]T = ∇CiT I − ΦX Φ+
X dX (16)
carbon abatement|T
(19)
L
Carbon abatement intensity|T =
commercial floor area|T
where L is the time span; I represents the identity matrix; + represents
the generalized inverse matrix; and ∇C = carbon abatement|T
Carbon abatement per capita|T = (20)
( cs GS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )T . Additionally, if population size|T
the column is linearly independent in Jacobean matrix ΦX , then Φ+
X =
− 1
Furthermore, to better measure carbon abatement potential, abate­
(ΦTX ΦX ) ΦTX . The GDIM approach enables perfect decomposition, ment efficiency (an abatement-to-emission ratio) is introduced into the
meaning that the change in carbon emissions of CBOs for each country assessment framework and is defined as follows:
can be decomposed into the sum of fourteen factors within the period
ΔT. This additive decomposition is achieved by the contributions of each Carbon abatement efficiency|0→T =
average carbon abatement|0→T
(21)
factor, and it provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors that average carbon emission|0→T
influence carbon emissions. This can be expressed mathematically as
shown in Eq. (17). Efficiency of carbon abatement intensity|0→T
average carbon abatement intensity|0→T
ΔC0→T = ΔC|T − ΔC|0 = (ΔCGS + ΔCE + ΔCG + ΔCP + ΔCF = (22)
average carbon intensity|0→T
+ΔCK + ΔCcs + ΔCcg + ΔCS + ΔCes + ΔCcp + ΔCg + ΔCc + ΔCe )|0→T
(17) Efficiency of carbon abatement per capita|0→T
Among these drives, ΔGS , ΔE, ΔG, ΔP, and ΔF capture the influence average carbon abatement per capita|0→T
of five absolute indicators on the change in carbon emissions, whereas = (23)
average carbon emissions per capita|0→T
ΔK, Δcs , Δcg , ΔS, Δes , Δcp , Δg, Δc, and Δe capture the effect of nine
relative indicators on the change in carbon emissions. The changes are
divided into five absolute factors and nine related factors for a more 3.2. Data collection
comprehensive discussion. For more details on the fourteen factors and
their meanings, see the nomenclature and Table 1. To maximize available data, 16 countries are selected for this study:
Finally, in Eq. (18), the carbon abatement of CBOs can be expressed Canada, the United States, China, Japan, Denmark, France, Netherlands,
by the factors of negative changes during period ΔT. Further, carbon Germany, Finland, Spain, Sweden, Portugal, Switzerland, Korea, the
abatement intensity and carbon abatement per capita can be measured United Kingdom and New Zealand. The period chosen runs from 2000 to
by Eqs. (19) and (20), respectively. 2019 considering the completeness and availability of data for some
countries.

∑( )
carbon abatement|0→T = − ΔCm |0→T
( ) (18)
ΔCm ∈ ΔCGS , ΔCE , ΔCG , ΔCP , ΔCF , ΔCK , ΔCcs , ΔCcg ΔCS , ΔCes , ΔCcp , ΔCg , ΔCc , ΔCe , ΔCm |O→T < 0

Economy-related data for each of the countries originate from the

World Bank (data.worldbank.org/), and the added value of the service
industry and GDP are processed at constant 2010 prices (US dollars).
Table 1 Carbon emissions, energy consumption, and commercial floor area data
Definitions of variables used for the GDIM approach.
come from the International Building Emission Dataset. Additionally,
Variable Meaning Unit the dataset created in this study is illustrated in Fig. 1, which covers
Gs Added value in the service industry Billion United States dollar carbon emission and its five absolute factors of the GDIM for commercial
(USD) buildings.
C Carbon emissions Million tons of carbon
dioxide (MtCO2)
4. Results
G GDP Billion USD
E Energy consumption Million tons of oil equivalent
(Mtoe) 4.1. Trends in carbon emissions of commercial building operations
F Commercial floor area Million square meters (106 worldwide
m2 )
P Population size Million persons
K = C /E Emission factor kgCO2/kgoe
Fig. 2 displays the results of the GDIM, which highlights the varying
S = GS Industry structure % contributions of each factor to changes in carbon emissions and iden­
/G tifies the key factors driving emissions. The analysis covers the period
c = C /F Carbon intensity kgCO2/m2 from 2000 to 2019 and can be divided into two phases: 2000–2010 and
cg = C Carbon emissions per GDP kgCO2/USD
2010–2019. The results indicate that the total carbon emissions from
/G
cp = C /P Carbon emissions per capita Kilograms of carbon dioxide CBOs have stabilized in most countries (except for China and the United
(kgCO2)/person States) and have increased at a rate of 0.9%/yr from 2000 to 2019. The
cs = C Carbon emissions per added value in kgCO2/USD United States and China, being major carbon emitters, had the highest
/GS the service industry average emissions of 977 MtCO2/yr and 537 MtCO2/yr, respectively,
e = E /F Energy intensity Kilograms of oil equivalent
(kgoe)/m2
contributing 69.6% to the total carbon emissions of CBOs from the 16
es = E Energy consumption per added value Mtoe/USD selected countries. However, the trend of total carbon emission change
/GS in the service industry from CBOs in the United States and China was significantly different.
g = G /P GDP per capita USD/person The change in total carbon emissions from CBOs declined by − 4.3%

4
L. Chen et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654

Fig. 1. Raincloud plot of variables of 16 selected economies’ commercial buildings from 2000 to 2019. Note: The points of different colors in the raincloud plot
represent different sampled countries; circles represent mean values; diamonds represent maximum/minimum values; and the edges of the normal curve represent
25%, 50% and 75% of the distribution.

Fig. 2. Changes in carbon emissions of CBOs worldwide (2000–2019).

from 2000 to 2010 and − 19.2% from 2010 to 2019 in the United States,
while in China, it increased from 212 MtCO2 in 2000 to 549 MtCO2 in
2010 and further to 822 MtCO2 in 2019, representing growth rates of
158.5% and 49.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the emissions countries in
the European Union showed a downward trend, indicating a growing
decoupling effect between the service economy and carbon emissions.
In terms of positive factors contributing to the increase of carbon
emissions, added value in the service industry (with a global average
contribution of 5.2%), GDP (with a global average contribution of
5.2%), and commercial floor areas (with a global average contribution
of 3.4%) were the main drivers, as indicated by the deep pink, yellow,
and blue-violet blocks in Fig. 2. On the other hand, carbon emissions per
added value in the service industry (with a global average contribution
of − 4.9%) and carbon emissions per GDP (with a global average
contribution of − 4.4%) were the major factors declining carbon emis­
sions. For example, added value in the service industry and carbon
emissions per added value in the service industry were more significant
factors in New Zealand (average contributions: 6.2% and − 4.4%,
respectively), Sweden (average contributions: 4.4% and − 6.6%,
respectively) and the United Kingdom (average contributions: 4.0% and
− 7.9%, respectively). Meanwhile, socioeconomic factors were particu­
larly significant in developing economies. For instance, GDP was China’s
most positive factor contributing to the growth of carbon emissions from
CBOs, accounting for 46.5% from 2000 to 2010 and 18.7% from 2010 to
2019, while per capita GDP was the most negative one, reaching
− 25.0% before 2010 and − 6.5% after 2010.
However, in terms of overall trends, the positive factors’ contribu­
tion rate decreased while the negative factors’ contribution rate
increased in absolute values, which is in line with the decline in total
carbon emissions of CBOs in the majority of the sample. In addition,
industry structure (with a global average contribution of − 0.03%), en­
ergy intensity (with a global average contribution of − 0.3%), and en­
ergy consumption per added value in the service industry (with a global
average contribution of − 0.3%) did not show an obvious influence on
carbon emissions of CBOs. Energy consumption and carbon emissions
per capita had a nonstationary effect on the carbon emissions of CBOs.

5
L. Chen et al.
Fig. 3. Total carbon abatement of CBOs worldwide (2001–2019).
Energy consumption, for example, was both a positive and negative
factor, with an average positive contribution for most countries from
2000 to 2010 but a negative one from 2010 to 2019. The average
contribution of energy consumption in Germany shifted from positive
(6.4%) to negative (− 4.0%), highlighting the changing nature of this
factor’s impact on carbon emissions.
Overall, the above decomposition and measurement of historical
changes in carbon emissions of CBOs worldwide address to the first
question posed in Section 1.
4.2. Historical carbon abatement of commercial building operations
worldwide
After decomposing the contributions of factors shaping carbon
emission change in CBOs, this study further examined the performance
of total carbon abatement of CBOs from 2001 to 2019. Fig. 3 shows the
trend of total carbon abatement of CBOs in the 16 selected countries
during 2001–2019. To convey the impact of uncertainty on the abate­
ment results, the annual error band was considered in this graph.
Fig. 3 clearly shows the trends and differences of the total carbon
abatement of CBOs globally. The total annual carbon abatement results
of CBOs globally are not consistently increasing, despite the continued
growth in cumulative carbon abatement. The variation and range of
carbon abatement curves across countries lead to noticeable differences
in the total carbon abatement of CBOs among countries. The two leading
emitters, the United States (699 MtCO2) and China (220 MtCO2), had a
cumulative carbon abatement level of 919 MtCO2, far exceeding the
levels of other countries and accounting for 66.8% of the cumulative
carbon abatement of CBOs in 16 countries. Following them are Ger­
many, Japan, and the United Kingdom, with cumulative carbon abate­
ment levels of 97 MtCO2, 86 MtCO2, and 72 MtCO2, respectively. The
rest of the countries only reached a cumulative total carbon abatement
of 203 MtCO2, which is equivalent to the volume of China alone. Annual
carbon abatement from CBOs globally follows a dynamic trend. Some
countries peaked in approximately 2004, such as the United States with
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Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
a peak of 94 MtCO2 in 2002, Canada with a peak of 5 MtCO2 in 2004,
Denmark with a peak of 2 MtCO2 in 2004, Japan with a peak of 12
MtCO2 in 2005, and Finland with a peak of 2 MtCO2 in 2005. The
remaining 70% of countries peaked around 2012, including China with
a peak of 54 MtCO2 in 2014, Germany with a peak of 14 MtCO2 in 2011,
and Spain with a peak of 7 MtCO2 in 2013.
Furthermore, Fig. 4 presents total carbon abatement from CBOs and
shows clear geographical differences with the United States and China
contributing more to the cumulative total carbon abatement of com­
mercial operations from 2001 to 2019, accounting for 66.8% of the 16
countries combined (1377 MtCO2). In particular, the carbon abatement
of the United States averaged 37 MtCO2/yr, which is 3 times that of the
second-ranked country, China (12 MtCO2/yr), and both countries far
exceeded the other countries. Especially, China made significant strides
in decarbonization and achieved a notable growth rate of 80.8%/yr in
total carbon abatement. Furthermore, European countries have
continued to increase their annual carbon abatement from CBOs, aver­
aging at 24.3%/yr, but they maintained relatively low levels (2 MtCO2/
yr) from 2001 to 2019. Overall, the global average carbon abatement
from CBOs was 5 MtCO2/yr over 19 years.
Based on the results of the total carbon abatement change in CBOs,
carbon abatement intensity (see Fig. 5) can further be measured by Eq.
(19). The carbon abatement intensity of the 16 selected countries’ CBOs
reached its annual peak before 2015, similar to the total carbon abate­
ment of CBOs globally. Portugal had the highest peak in annual carbon
abatement intensity in 2010 at 47.1 kgCO2/m2, which was much higher
than any other country and 70 times that of China (0.7 kgCO2/m2) in the
same year. On average, the global carbon abatement intensity of CBOs
was 3.8 kgCO2/m2/yr. Portugal (13.1 kgCO2/m2/yr), Spain (6.2 kgCO2/
m2/yr), and the United States (5.5 kgCO2/m2/yr) were the top three
countries in terms of decarbonization, showing a general increase in the
carbon abatement intensity of CBOs with average annual levels of
27.1%, 4.2%, and 5.5%, respectively.
Additionally, to offset the effect of population size on the carbon
abatement of CBOs, Fig. 6 shows changes in carbon abatement per capita
L. Chen et al.
Fig. 4. Changes in carbon abatement of CBOs worldwide (2001–2019).
of CBOs globally. The graph reveals that the shading corresponding to
China is much lighter than that of other countries, indicating that its
carbon abatement per capita was much lower. While the United States
generated 119 kgCO2/person, China (9 kgCO2/person) produced only
one-fourteenth of this level. The substantial contrast in levels of carbon
abatement per capita observed between China and the United States is
due to large differences in population size and user behavior during
building operation, while exhibiting roughly similar total carbon
abatement levels. Furthermore, the United States, Denmark, and Finland
were the top three countries in terms of carbon abatement per capita,
with annual average levels of 119, 116, and 104 kgCO2/person,
respectively.
In summary, Figs. 4–6 evaluate the historical decarbonization of
CBOs from three perspectives: total decarbonization, decarbonization
per capita, and per floor area. The findings indicate that the general
trend of decarbonization has followed an increasing-then-decreasing
trajectory, with the decarbonization pace of CBOs showing a gradual
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Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
slowdown over time. The above findings respond to the second question
raised in Section 1.
5. Discussion
An assessment of historical carbon emissions of CBOs worldwide
forms a basis for providing insight into the potential for future decar­
bonization to hit the carbon neutral goal. To further discuss the decar­
bonization characteristics of CBOs, Section 5.1 introduces the carbon
abatement efficiency (an abatement-to-emission ratio) into the assess­
ment framework for CBOs. In Section 5.2, ridge regression is employed
to conduct a stability analysis of GDIM, which showcases the depend­
ability of historical decarbonization outcomes. At last, Section 5.3 pro­
poses the solution to better reduce the operational carbon emissions of
commercial building.
L. Chen et al.
Fig. 5. Changes in the carbon abatement intensity of CBOs worldwide (2001–2019).
5.1. Carbon abatement efficiency of commercial building operations
worldwide
Fig. 7 illustrates total carbon abatement of CBOs and its efficiency in
16 countries during 2001–2019, which is calculated by Eq. (21). On the
whole, the countries represented by the blue bar (total volume: 1173
MtCO2) exhibited much more total carbon abatement in CBOs than
those represented by the purple bar (total volume: 203 MtCO2). The
efficiency of total carbon abatement of CBOs worldwide was not sig­
nificant, averaging at only approximately 3.6%, and only 62.5% of
countries achieved above average levels. In addition, it is evident from
Fig. 7 that most countries achieved less than 10% of total carbon
abatement efficiency in CBOs, except for Spain (27.8%). In stark contrast
to Spain was the United States, which had a relatively low total carbon
abatement efficiency level of 3.8%, but it did present the most total
carbon abatement of CBOs, accounting for approximately 50.8% of the
16 countries cumulatively. This is evidence of greater resistance and a
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Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
significant carbon lock-in effect of carbon abatement for United States
commercial buildings. Furthermore, in terms of total carbon abatement
by phase, the cumulative total carbon abatement from CBOs in the 16
countries was highest from 2011 to 2015 (425 MtCO2), with most
countries showing upward and then downward trends, meaning that
global carbon abatement from CBOs is slowing. Of these countries, the
United States (195 MtCO2), China (94 MtCO2), France (17 MtCO2),
Switzerland (2 MtCO2), the United Kingdom (24 MtCO2), and Korea (16
MtCO2) peaked in Phase 3 (2011–2015), while Canada (11 MtCO2),
Japan (27 MtCO2), and New Zealand (1 MtCO2) peaked in Phase 2
(2006–2010). In contrast, the carbon abatement of Germany, Spain, and,
Portugal showed an N-shaped trend, while the carbon abatement of
Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden showed an inverted N-
shaped trend.
Fig. 8 shows the carbon abatement intensity of CBOs for four stages
and the corresponding efficiencies. Relatively high levels of carbon
abatement intensity occurred in Europe (Denmark, Finland, and Spain)
L. Chen et al.
Fig. 6. Changes in carbon abatement per capita of CBOs worldwide (2001–2019).
and North America (Canada and the United States). Regarding the ef­
ficiency of the carbon abatement intensity of CBOs, the average effi­
ciency levels of the 16 countries over four stages were 3.7%
(2001–2005), 5.7% (2006–2010), 8.1% (2011–2015), and 7.2%
(2016–2019). Namely, the marginal effect of carbon abatement intensity
of CBOs is diminishing, and a growing carbon lock-in effect is observed.
Meanwhile, Spain still performed significantly well in the efficiency of
carbon abatement intensity, with levels increasing from 11.8%
(2001–2005) to 45.9% (2016–2019), and the country was 23 times more
efficient than China (2.0%) over the same period of 2016–2019. In
addition, in the carbon abatement intensity of CBOs, the United States
continued to show declining levels from 6.9 kgCO2/m2 (2001–2005) to
4.8 kgCO2/m2 (2016–2019). In particular, Portugal achieved carbon
abatement intensity with 21.9 kgCO2/m2 in CBOs from 2006 to 2010, far
exceeding those of other countries and achieving levels 4 times those of
the United States (5.4 kgCO2/m2) for the same period.
As illustrated in Fig. 9, the dominance of Europe (Spain, Denmark,
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Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
Finland, and the United Kingdom) in terms of carbon abatement per
capita with its efficiency stands in stark contrast to that of China. China
had the lowest carbon abatement per capita in CBOs, with the United
States (112.6 kgCO2/person) achieving almost 41 times more than
China’s level (2.8 kgCO2/person) from 2001 to 2005. In addition, the
efficiency of carbon abatement per capita was very similar in character
to the efficiency of carbon abatement intensity, where Spain experi­
enced a rise in efficiency of 19.4% from Phase 1 (2001–2005) to Phase 2
(2006–2009) and of 15.1% from Phase 3 (2010–2015) to Phase 4
(2016–2019).
Overall, the above work assesses the carbon abatement efficiency of
CBOs worldwide on three different decarbonization scales (total carbon
abatement, carbon abatement intensity, and carbon abatement per
capita), addressing the second question posed in Section 1.
L. Chen et al.
Fig. 7. Total carbon abatement of CBOs (2001–2019) and its efficiency in 16 countries. Note: The Y-axis displays the ratio of emission abatement to emissions on the
left, while the Y-axis in blue and purple on the right displays the carbon abatement of each country, where the blue and purple axes correspond to the bars of the
corresponding colors.
5.2. Stability analysis of the generalized Divisia index method
This study utilized GDIM to decompose carbon emissions and eval­
uate the potential for carbon abatement from CBOs. By breaking down
carbon emissions into their constituent factors, GDIM is capable of
effectively characterizing the influence of various absolute and relative
factors on environmental pressure. However, it is important to note that
the accuracy and reliability of the GDIM decomposition results can be
affected by the potential presence of multicollinearity among the fac­
tors, which may lead to unreliable and inconsistent findings.
In order to ensure the reliability of the GDIM decomposition results,
a stability analysis was performed in this section. This involved building
a different scenario to simulate the results of the original GDIM scenario,
thereby allowing for a comparative analysis of the impact factors’
elasticities using both GDIM and regression estimation scenarios.
However, since the fourteen factors being analyzed were found to have a
strong coupling relationship, there was a potential for multicollinearity
which could lead to unreliable findings. To address this issue and
improve the accuracy of estimations, a biased estimation regression
model called the ridge regression, as established by Farrar and Glauber
(1967) and explained in Appendix C, was employed in this study (Erdem
Okumus & Terzi, 2021). The study used Eq. (24) to establish the rela­
tionship between the explaining and explained variables, with a loga­
rithm applied to eliminate heterogeneity among the variables, as
recommended by Choi et al. (2019), in order to enable the deployment
of stability tests.
lnC = α + θ1 lnGS + θ2 lnE + θ3 lnG + θ4 lnP + θ5 lnF + θ6 lnK + θ7 lncs
+ θ8 lncg + θ9 lnS + θ10 lnes + θ11 lncp + θ12 lng + θ13 lnc + θ14 lne
(24)
where θ is the regression co-efficient of each influence factor and the
definition of each factor is the same as in Table 1 of Section 3.1.
To verify the stability of the GDIM results, a comparison of the
elasticity of the contributions of the fourteen factors was conducted by
using both the GDIM and ridge regression methods, as illustrated in
Fig. 10. The analysis reveals that while the elasticity values of the factors
varied across the two scenarios, the elasticity trajectories exhibited a
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Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
consistent trend. In other words, both scenarios showed consistent
positive or negative contributions of each factor. For example, the GDP
of the sixteen countries in Fig. 10 was consistently above the dotted line
in both scenarios, indicating that GDP had a positive impact on the
growth of carbon emissions in CBOs worldwide.
Based on these results, it can be demonstrated that the GDIM method
is stable and reliable in producing credible results for both decomposi­
tion analysis and decarbonization assessment. This finding is particu­
larly important in addressing the issue of climate change, where
accurate and reliable methods of analysis are critical to inform effective
policy and decision-making. The efforts outlined in Sections 4, 5.1, and
5.2 collectively answer the first and second questions posed in Section 1.
5.3. Solutions to better decarbonize the commercial building operations
In Section 5.1, the carbon abatement efficiency of CBOs was
measured from three perspectives, and the results indicate that Spain
outperformed other countries in terms of carbon abatement efficiency.
Although China and the United States are the top carbon-emitting
countries, the United States has achieved 4 and 14 times China’s
levels in annual average carbon abatement per floor area and per capita,
respectively. In addition to quantifying abatement performance, it is
worth conducting a review of strategies to consciously promote lower
carbon practices in order to summarize effective methods for decar­
bonizing CBOs (Zhao et al., 2022). To answer the third question posed in
Section 1, this section discussed the electrification level of commercial
buildings worldwide and proposed solutions to better decarbonize CBOs
in the future.
The electrification levels of CBOs in 16 countries were calculated in
the present study, as shown in Fig. 11. Overall, it appears that the
number of countries with electrification levels of over 50% has increased
from six in 2000 to nine in 2019. Portugal and Spain had the highest
average electrification rates since 2000, at 68.8% and 68.3%, respec­
tively. It shows that Portugal places a strong emphasis on achieving
decarbonization through broad electrification, coupling with the rapid
expansion of renewable electricity generation (Capelo et al., 2023). In
Spain, electricity plays a significant role in the building sector, and re­
newables have shown a strong increase in the electricity mix, with
L. Chen et al.
Fig. 8. Carbon abatement intensity and its efficiency in CBOs worldwide (2001–2019).
thermal power stations being closed gradually (IEA, 2021). However,
the pace of improvement has been slow, with Portugal increasing levels
by only 4.2% from 2000 (69.6%) to 2019 (73.8%) (Yan et al., 2023).
Some countries showed an inverted U-shaped trend, with levels peaking
and then gradually declining, including Portugal, the United States,
Spain, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. In addition,
Korea achieved a major increase from 34.4% to 62.0% in only ten years,
reaching 67.3% by 2019. Compared to the United States, where the
perennial electrification level remained at approximately 55%, China’s
electrification level was still at a lower level of only 25.6% in 2000, but
by 2019, it had reached 44.9%. Although levels did not surpass 50%, the
growth rate was approximately 1.0% per year, and the growth pace was
second only to that of Korea, which had a growth rate of 1.7% per yr.
Lower electrification levels indicate a greater opportunity to shift to
cleaner electricity and reduce carbon emissions. Electrification is a key
strategy for achieving a low-carbon transition. By implementing energy-
efficient technologies, such as light-emitting diode lighting (Islam et al.,
2019), efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems
(Catrini et al., 2020), and adopting renewable energy sources such as
photovoltaic (Wen et al., 2023), wind, geothermal (He et al., 2021), and
hydrogen energy (Ji et al., 2022), users can improve building electrifi­
cation and decrease the primary energy demand and corresponding
emission while enhancing the overall sustainability of commercial
buildings (Francis & Thomas, 2022).
11
Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
However, building electrification, along with electricity decarbon­
ization, is just one piece of the puzzle required to deeply decarbonize
CBOs. Therefore, other solutions are recommended to further decar­
bonize CBOs worldwide: Firstly, the promotion of ultralow, near-zero,
and zero energy buildings should be actively pursued (Cardinali et al.,
2020). In addition, heat pump technologies such as ground-source heat
pumps (Calise et al., 2022) and air-source heat pumps (Wang et al.,
2022), as well as carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies,
should be promoted (Kinnunen et al., 2022). Second, in terms of sus­
tainable structure design in buildings (Shuai et al., 2022), the use of
high-performance structures and low-carbon building materials should
be encouraged (Rathore et al., 2022), such as new walls (Besir & Cuce,
2018), energy-saving insulation materials (Ustaoglu et al., 2020),
high-quality cement products (Scrivener et al., 2018), and new glass
products (Xi et al., 2022). At last, building occupants can be encouraged
to adopt sustainable behaviors (Zou et al., 2023), such as turning off
lights and electronics when not needed, to further reduce energy con­
sumption and corresponding emissions.
Overall, Section 5.3 discusses the effective solutions to better reduce
the operational carbon in global commercial buildings, answering the
third question raised in Section 1.
L. Chen et al.
Fig. 9. Carbon abatement per capita and its efficiency in CBOs worldwide (2001–2019).
6. Conclusion
This work employed the GDIM approach to investigate the factors
that affect carbon emissions and evaluate the carbon abatement per­
formance of global CBOs between 2000 and 2019. Additionally, the
study examined the carbon abatement efficiency of CBOs across
different emitters, conducted a stability analysis of GDIM, and proposed
solutions to better decarbonize the CBOs to achieve carbon neutral
goals. The key findings of the study are summarized below.
6.1. Key findings
• The carbon emissions of CBOs vary significantly among 16 countries,
with an overall increase of 0.9%/yr from 2000 to 2019. The United
States and China occupied the first and second positions, emitting
977 MtCO2/yr and 537 MtCO2/yr, respectively, accounting for 70%
of the carbon emissions of CBOs among the selected 16 countries.
Regarding the factors responsible for carbon emissions, the value
added of the service industry and GDP had a positive impact in most
countries. However, carbon emissions per added value in the service
industry and carbon emissions per GDP had a negative effect. The
overall trend for these factors’ contributions indicated a decrease, in
line with the declining carbon emissions of CBOs globally. Further­
more, the impact of industry structure and energy intensity was not
12
Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654
significant, while the factors influencing energy consumption and
carbon emissions per capita exhibited a non-stationary effect.
• The abatement performance of CBOs reached 4.5 MtCO2/yr (total
carbon abatement), 3.8 kgCO2/m2/yr (carbon abatement intensity)
and 54.1 kgCO2/person/yr (carbon abatement per capita) in the
selected countries with significant regional differences. The United
States outperformed in all three categories, ranking first in the
average of total carbon abatement (36.8 MtCO2/yr), third in average
carbon intensity (5.5 kgCO2/m2/yr), and first in average carbon
abatement per capita (119.2 kgCO2/person/yr). As the leading two
emitters, the United States and China had much higher total carbon
abatement than other countries, averaging 36.8 MtCO2/yr and 11.6
MtCO2/yr, respectively. Portugal achieved an average carbon
abatement intensity of 13.1 kgCO2/m2/yr, which was twice that of
Spain (6.2 kgCO2/m2/yr), which ranked second. Carbon abatement
per capita in China was only 8.5 kgCO2/person/yr, while that of the
United States was 14 times higher.
• Most countries had a total carbon abatement efficiency level of less
than 10% in CBOs, and the efficiency of carbon abatement intensity
was almost the same as the efficiency of carbon abatement per cap­
ita. Spain, Denmark, and Finland stood out for their abatement ef­
ficiency, with Spain achieving a total abatement efficiency level of
around 27.8%, approximately 8 times the 16-country average
(3.6%). Furthermore, Spain showed a significant increase in the
L. Chen et al. Sustainable Cities and Society 96 (2023) 104654

Fig. 10. Comparative analysis on the elasticity of factors’ contribution to carbon emissions of CBOs using the ridge regression and GDIM for 16 economies. Note: The
definition of each factor can be found in Table 1, and the time-series data spanning from 2000 to 2019.

Fig. 11. Electrification level in CBOs worldwide in 2000, 2010, and 2019.

13
L. Chen et al.
efficiency of carbon abatement intensity and carbon abatement per
capita in CBOs, with a 34.1% increase from 11.7% in 2001–2005 to
approximately 45.8% in 2016–2019.
6.2. Upcoming study
Although this study has explored the factors shaping carbon emis­
sions and assessed historical carbon abatement in commercial building
operations, some gaps in this study must still be addressed. First, the
study area can be further expanded. Although this study evaluated the
historical carbon abatement of CBOs across 16 emitters, a relatively
small sample was used due to data availability reasons, with a primary
focus on high-income economies. Using the method proposed in this
study, it would be worthwhile to investigate the carbon abatement effect
in other regions with a higher increase in building energy demand in
upcoming works, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and
Africa. Moreover, although this study focused on decarbonization in
building operations, it did not include a decomposition analysis for
building end uses. Identifying the end use-related factors that impact the
operational carbon in buildings using GDIM is challenging, as this
approach primarily focuses on the society-economy side. Thus, to
enhance the present study, it could be beneficial to measure the changes
in carbon intensity across various end uses via the bottom-up approach.
Appendix
Please find the appendix in the supplementary materials (e-compo­
nent) of this submission.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgments
This manuscript has been authored by an author at Lawrence Ber­
keley National Laboratory under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231
with the U.S. Department of Energy. The U.S. Government retains,
and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowl­
edges, that the U.S. Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up,
irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published
form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government
purposes. Author 3 appreciates the supporting of the Graduate Research
and Innovation Foundation of Chongqing, China (CYS22071).
Supplementary materials
Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in
the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.scs.2023.104654.
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