Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743

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Expert Systems With Applications

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eswa

Building condition assessment using artificial neural network and

structural equations
Ahmed Gouda Mohamed a, *, Mohamed Marzouk b
a
Faculty of Engineering, Construction Engineering and Management, British University in Egypt, Egypt
b
Construction Engineering and Management, Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Egypt

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Building facilities condition assessment is considered a fundamental aspect of an effective decision-making
Building condition assessment maintenance management plan to fulfill service requirements. A noticeable dearth of studies is believed to
Artificial neural network have delivered condition assessment approaches for existing buildings; however, these approaches are still
Structural equation modeling
deemed premature, with some limitations in demand enhancement. This paper presents a novel physical con­
Maintenance management
Facilities management
dition assessment framework for existing educational buildings that contribute to the body of knowledge by
offering a state-of-the-art approach incorporating an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) predictive model and a
Structural Equation Model (SEM). The ANN predictive model aims to forecast the future condition-rating states
for each facility component in various building spaces. Simultaneously, the SEM determines the proportionate
weights of building facilities components. The primary objectives of this paper are to prioritize building com­
ponents for maintenance purposes and record the potential effects of several parameters influencing the con­
dition state of building components. These objectives can be achieved via four sequential modules: 1) scan to BIM
module; 2) condition assessment prediction module; 3) proportionate weight determination module; and 4)
entire space rating value module. Condition-monitoring data on six different buildings’ internal components are
analyzed to anticipate their future condition. The components carried out are: 1) wooden flooring tiles; 2)
gypsum board ceiling tiles; 3) wooden doors; 4) wooden windows, 5) split air conditioner units; and 6) desktop
computers. The overall coefficient of determination (R2) of the developed ANN models for the predicted six
components conditions are 0.99, 0.99, 0.927, 0.88, 0.97, and 0.972, respectively.

1. Introduction
Buildings constitute a fundamental urban infrastructure physical
asset, including numerous facilities. There are three main space features
associated with building sheltering from climate and offering customers
security, safety, and privacy (Douglas, 1996). Despite the extreme eco­
nomic, cultural, and historical vitality of buildings, there is evidence
that they are degrading and are in a flaccid state due to insufficient or
misleading information about their facilities conditions, required for
building facilities maintenance management (Becerik-Gerber et al.,
2012). Hence, Condition Assessment (CA) of the building facilities
components is essential to assist the decision-making process regarding
effective maintenance management plans and service requirements.
Unless there is an adequate CA. for building facilities components, they
may deteriorate more rapidly and evolve into a less profitable asset,
coupled with a huge expenditures backlog in supporting their primary
tasks. Building facilities components degrade over time due to external
and internal influences; most external influences are apparently due to
climatic conditions, while user-driven consequences and building
maintenance process causes the internal influences.
In fact, the research problem presented in this study is that,
currently, facility managers settled their decision-making on mainte­
nance and renovation approaches relying on sparse information
regarding the building facilities’ components’ current actual condition.
These sparse data are insufficient to monitor and predict building fa­
cilities components’ signs of wear, tear, and Age, hindering bench­
marking enhancements outcomes and signifying any substantial
conditions alternations before influencing building facilities compo­
nents efficiency. This issue highlights the demand for a condition
assessment model, which can portray a proactive alternative picture of
repair and maintenance requirements based on the future condition
prediction of building facilities components (Grussing et al., 2016;

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: ahmed.ghanem@bue.edu.eg (A. Gouda Mohamed), mmarzouk@cu.edu.eg (M. Marzouk).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.115743
Received 8 May 2021; Received in revised form 6 August 2021; Accepted 7 August 2021
Available online 15 August 2021
0957-4174/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk
Grussing, 2018; Sadick & Issa, 2018).
The novel contribution of this research is to present a physical con­
dition assessment model for existing educational building facilities
components while supporting the mapping out of a long-term plan for
optimal maintenance and repair resolutions via an ANN predictive
model and SEM framework. The primary merit of this model is: 1)
allowing facility managers to accurately predict the future condition
data of building facilities components throughout the monitoring pro­
cess, which facilitates determining the service level metrics for in­
terventions criteria and the foreseeable timing; 2) prioritizing building
facilities components for maintenance purposes based on proportionate
weighted method and rate of degradation; and 3) recording the potential
effects of several parameters influencing the condition state of building
facilities components. A case study checks and confirms the proposed
model implementation and its functional efficacy via selected space at
Cairo University in Egypt.
2. Related works
2.1. Building condition assessment
Assessment of condition is the foundation of ascertaining the rate of
regular maintenance appropriate for building facilities components. A
condition assessment promotes a methodological approach needed for
assessing the capital assets of an entity for the facility repair purpose,
renovation, or substitution requirements, which will maintain their ca­
pacity to handle the allocated tasks to serve. Abundant research initia­
tives have been carried out for building condition assessment
approaches in various contexts; instances involve distinct assessment
types such as structural (Sandoval et al., 2017; Cerchiello et al., 2018;
Hait et al., 2020), environmental (Jung & Park, 2015; Lützkendorf,
2018; Danivska et al., 2019), Building Information Modeling (BIM)-
based sustainable (Jalaei et al., 2019; Mellado et al., 2020), and physical
(Elhakeem & Hegazy, 2005; Ahluwalia, 2008; Grussing, 2018; Atef &
Bristow, 2019).
Several research attempts have been conducted to assess existing
buildings’ physical conditions in the context of physical condition
assessment. For example, Elhakeem & Hegazy (2005) created a visual
inspection scheme for buildings. This user-friendly approach can be
employed easily at sites to evaluate a condition to save time and costs
concurrently. This visual guide scheme was designed for the building
component’s prompt evaluation by capturing images from previous and
different asset condition states. Furthermore, Langevine (2006) formu­
lated a methodology to evaluate the building components status by
investigating the building components weights through analyzing the
proportionate significance of each component in the hierarchical
structure at each tier using thorough inspections developed at the bot­
tom tier of the hierarchical building structure, and by employing a roll-
up process to evaluate the building condition.
On the other side, Grussing et al. (2006) adopted a probability dis­
tribution model to assess the building components’ lifecycle condition
and efficiency over time. This model adjusts itself utilizing attribute data
gathered throughout the present and recorded inspections so that an
individual element in a building can precisely map the distinctive life­
cycle deterioration scheme. Ahluwalia (2008) established the embedded
monitoring and condition evaluation framework to emphasize the most
critical components required to be inspected. This framework presents a
visual guidance system for building components, supported by a
graphical and descriptive repository, and provides a uniform building
hierarchy for location-based inspections. Moreover, Hossny et al. (2013)
introduced a framework model for educational buildings that in­
corporates maintenance data to promote reliable inspection preparation
and expedite condition assessment for interconnected building compo­
nents. The conducted model minimizes field monitoring by incorpo­
rating a degradation model that utilizes neural network techniques to
forecast various planning horizon repair approaches.
2
Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743
Grussing (2018) presented a framework for measuring the signifi­
cance of building component inspection data concerning the decision-
making process for maintenance work planning. This framework uti­
lizes an information value decision tree and a Markov component
condition-forecasting model to estimate the likelihood of the building
component failure. The proposed framework considers the last time
inspection took place, the anticipated component condition state, the
failure risk consequence, and the cost of risk mitigation associated with
the constructive repair or replacement practices.
Furthermore, Sadick & Issa (2018) examined the development and
adoption of a condition evaluation instrument thoroughly concerning a
building’s space level to evaluate the effect of building components’
physical conditions on indoor environmental quality, especially in
school buildings. This study examined 52 classrooms, either in new,
rehabilitated, or non-rehabilitated schools. Findings of the condition
evaluation information of the space level revealed that the highest
proportion of statistical significance discrepancies is amongst new and
non-rehabilitated schools, while the lowest amongst rehabilitated and
non-rehabilitated. The condition evaluation scores of the space level and
indoor environmental quality field analyses also affirmed that the
highest correlation exists amongst the main envelope of the condition
evaluation score of the space level and relative humidity in non-
rehabilitated schools.
Atef and Bristow (2019) also proposed a tool to evaluate the prop­
agation of existing buildings and the failure of their components during
the operational phase. The tool consists of two major algorithms: spatial
and operational interdependency algorithms. The spatial algorithm
disintegrates a building into distinct venues and excerpts each venue’s
components to be assembled into architectural, structural, mechanical,
electrical, and plumbing disciplines. At the same time, the operational
algorithm excerpts functional interdependency relationships among the
building’s distinctive systems to attach the building venues to their
functional dependencies.
Nevertheless, Mohd Noor et al. (2019) portrayed a Building Condi­
tion Assessment (BCA) implementation on a heritage building depend­
ing upon the maintainability, security, and functionality of structural
and architectural elements, in addition to original construction material
sustainability. This research determines each defect ranking relative to
its condition and maintenance requirement using a rating system via a
comprehensive visual inspection and detailed notes for each current
defect and drawbacks. Eventually, Piaia et al. (2020) endorsed the
sustainable conservation and maintenance of cultural heritage buildings
through a software platform for the on-site condition assessment and
asset management with an entrenched Building Information Model
(BIM) platform. This framework leverages the existing BIM information
to accelerate and improve the efficiency of building inspections so that
conservation maintenance planning can be tailored and optimized
concerning various requirements.
2.2. Artificial neural networks
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a refined information model of
biological neuron structures via a simple structure, which aims at
emulating the thinking mechanism in the human brain. The human
brain operates data via a sequence of interdependent elements or neu­
rons that transmit direct data through links. An ANN comprises
numerous linear or nonlinear information-processing paradigms linked
in a parallel scheme, influenced by the human brain processing infor­
mation system. Concerning ANN modeling, each ANN processing unit
collects massive inputs via weighted neuron connections in the other
layer, executes adequate computations, and sends the output to other
processing layers. Optimization algorithms alter the weighted connec­
tions among neurons throughout the learning phase to decrease the ANN
model errors that offer a more precise determinant or predictor. The
Back Propagation Multi-Layer Perceptron (BP MLP) network is consid­
ered one of the ANN model easy types, which decomposes an input
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk
layer, hidden layers (one or more), and an output layer. External
reference supplies input neurons with input information, while hidden
neurons obtain inputs and outputs throughout the network, and they are
not apparent to the external structures. Output neurons give out signals
from the network, measured by the system (Liu, 2012).
Several research endeavors have been conducted in ANN imple­
mentations in ecological sciences to generate precise prediction models.
For instance, Jahani and Saffariha (2020) developed a landscape model
to anticipate the aesthetic prioritization and mental restoration values in
urban parks via employing artificial intelligence approaches like Multi-
Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network, Radial Basis Function Neural
Network (RBFNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The model
recorded 11 landscape characteristics in 200 urban parks. The results
revealed that the SVM model depicts the most reliable assessment model
for anticipating the urban parks landscape score in aesthetic and mental
restoration potential prediction. Furthermore, Jahani et al. (2021)
proposed a decision support system to model and anticipate the land­
scape aesthetic value and quality in urban parks via employing ANN.
The ANN model aims to anticipate the landscape aesthetical value and
prioritize the model’s crucial variables. In this research, the authors
integrate the user’s perspective to quantify the landscape aesthetical
quality urban park and the ANN modeling approach to record the
effective features and variables on the visual quality of the landscape.
Nevertheless, Jahani and Saffariha (2021) utilized machine learning
approaches to discern trustworthy predictions for modeling the
responsiveness of trees to wind pressure and developing novel tech­
niques in forest management. Jahani and Saffariha (2021) proposed a
Tree Failure Model (TFM) via employing artificial intelligence ap­
proaches like Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network, Radial
Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), and Support Vector Machine
(SVM) models to identify impressionable trees in windstorm distur­
bances. Results revealed The MLP model depicts the highest precision of
target trees classification in training and serves as a comparative impact
assessment model to lessen trees failure in wind circulations.
Numerous ANN modeling attempts have been endeavored to pre­
cisely predict energy consumption in buildings encompassing engi­
neering, statistical and artificial intelligence methods. For instance,
Elbeltagi and Wefki (2021) proposed a methodological approach to
enhance anticipating the energy utilization inside residential buildings
at the early design stages, relying on ANN modeling. The developed
ANN model was operated by employing a dataset retrieved from energy
consumption computations via simulating and integrating various
design scenarios with the input variables. A user-friendly interface was
refined to anticipate energy consumption conveniently via an under­
standable and trustworthy decision support tool.
Furthermore, Amasyali and El-Gohary (2021) developed a machine-
learning approach based on an occupant-behavior-sensitive manner for
anticipating building energy consumption. An enormous set of energy-
use cases were modeled and simulated in EnergyPlus for the learning
process. The model was trained via a huge dataset encompassing 3-
month hourly data for 5760 energy-use cases depicting distinct build­
ing features, including outdoor weather conditions and occupant be­
haviors. The developed approach employed four machine-learning
algorithms, namely 1) Classification and Regression Trees (CART), 2)
Ensemble Bagging Trees (EBT), 3) Artificial Neural Networks (ANN),
and 4) Deep Neural Networks (DNN) for testing and comparing with
respect to the four algorithms anticipation precision and computational
efficacy.
Nevertheless, Chen et al. (2021) proposed two approaches to fit and
anticipate the electricity requirements concerning office buildings. The
first approach stressed lessening occupants’ activities, including the
working hours and non-working hours. The second approach employed
ANN and fuzzy logic techniques to fit the building baseload, peak load,
and occupancy rate with multi-variables of weather variables. Actual
data retrieved from the University of Glasgow are utilized to verify the
proposed approach for building energy management purposes.
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Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743
3. Research gaps
To sum up, this section provided a comprehensive literature review
in educational building condition assessment methodological ap­
proaches needed for assessing the capital assets of an entity for the fa­
cility repair purpose, renovation, or substitution requirements. The prior
literature concludes that previous approaches are still deemed prema­
ture, with some limitations demanded to be enhanced. For instance: 1)
the prior research approaches apropos of the physical condition
assessment of building are generic; indeed, it is very challenging to track
down the concerns within each building space; 2) the previous research
studies do not assess a building relying on each facility component
condition state; 3) forecasting the building condition state concerning its
internal spaces and their associated physical components using ANN
model do not exists, and 4) Preceding models concerned with building
components physical condition did not contemplate the proportionate
significance of each facility component to prioritize their importance
level inside spaces.
4. Method
This research endeavor proposes a novel physical condition assess­
ment model for educational building facilities components that intends
to support clients’ and facility managers’ actions and decisions
regarding the maintenance demands. The proposed model scheme relies
on assessing a building facility’s components condition concerning in­
ternal spaces and their associated physical components based on their
proportionate weighted method. The developed model allows creating
an estimate of the recent maintenance services efficacy required for
determining the severity of the assigned and needed maintenance. Four
sequential modules achieve the developed model objectives to conduct
physical condition assessment per each educational building space, as
shown in Fig. 1.
4.1. Scan to BIM module
Scan-to-BIM provides physical 3D laser scanning for indoor spaces or
environments to build a precise digital portrayal of these spaces. This
digital portrayal can then be utilized or implemented to distinct prac­
tices in which existing facilities demand to be captured, such as reno­
vation, rehabilitation, or restoration activities. The scan-to-BIM process
can be sub-divided into three phases; these phases are: 1) automated
data acquisition and information capturing; 2) point clouds segmenta­
tion process, and 3) modeling point clouds of building facilities. Auto­
mated data acquisition and information capturing are accountable for
data acquisition and scanning indoor building facilities using a terres­
trial laser scanner. The data acquisition process results in discrete re­
cords of point clouds, representing 3D spatiality information of indoor
building facilities. The data acquisition process of building facilities
results in a unified BIM model, incorporating data from multiple chan­
nels that vary based on similar parameters. Thus, point clouds seg­
mentation aims to segment and decompose point clouds into sets of
workable clusters with similar properties via a region-growing algo­
rithm. The purpose here is to break down the point clouds into practi­
cable clusters and detect the scanned features acquiring the same
properties, which can be attained using a region-growing-based algo­
rithm. The region growing-based algorithm to identify building com­
ponents from the point clouds is conducted using an object-oriented
programming language like C++ via the Microsoft visual studio
platform.
Eventually, modeling point clouds of building facilities are respon­
sible for evolving segmented building facilities components into a
semantically prosperous as-is 3D BIM model. Further details and ex­
planations regarding this module can be explicitly discussed in the
research endeavor developed by the authors (Gouda et al., 2020). The
output of the scan to BIM module is a 3D digital and physical
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk
Fig. 1. Proposed physical condition assessment model.
representation of the indoor building components to be extensively
employed for various approaches. The condition-monitoring data of
these identified building components and their inspection records are
considered the significant input variables of the ANN network to run the
model and prioritize building facilities components for maintenance
purposes.
4.2. Condition assessment prediction module
This section introduces the construction of a Back Propagation Multi-
Layer Perceptron (BP-MLP) ANN model to forecast future condition
ratings for facilities components in educational building spaces, which is
a satisfactory sign for their deterioration paradigm. MLP is considered
one of the ANN model easy types, which decomposes an input layer,
hidden layers (one or more), and an output layer. Input neurons are
supplied with input information from an external reference. Hidden
neurons obtain inputs and outputs throughout the network, and they are
not apparent to the external structures. Output neurons give out signals
from the network, measured by the system. In MLP, every neuron in the
layer is attached to the entire neurons in the succeeding layer via the
weighted connections. The arrows’ direction illustrates that the data is
forwarded via the neurons network from the input layer to the output
layer in a forward path; the forward interconnection of this data is
named feed-forward framework.
ANN model learns from the input and output parameters mapping
via a learning mechanism called error backpropagation, which includes
a forward and backward pass through the network. With a defined target
output, the input vector is implemented to the network neurons in the
forward pass, and its impact extends via the network, layer by layer. The
network connection weights are adjusted during the forward pass. The
network feedback is the array of inputs generated at the end of the
forward pass. On the other hand, the connection weights are adapted
using the error backpropagation algorithm during the backward pass.
the backpropagation algorithm is a probabilistic gradient regression
approach employed to mitigate square error. The algorithm delivers a
manner to compute the error slope function utilizing the chain differ­
entiation rule (Jahani & Saffariha, 2021).
The ANN is selected to carry out this research because it can
accommodate several parameters that substantially impact the output
results. ANN can acquire information from accessible data and establish
the relationship between the output and exogenous input variables.
Besides, an analysis of the weights determined by the ANN model may
be beneficial in determining the most significant parameters influencing
the model output. Moreover, ANNs have numerous remarkable features
4
Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743
other than other methods concerning addressing complicated nonlinear
problems and enduring faults and noise.
The data employed in this research are collected from the Faculty of
Engineering, Cairo University, Egypt, to operate the ANN model. The
database concerning condition monitoring has amassed data over the
last obtainable five years. The condition monitoring data related to
building various components were recorded from inspectors’ visual
observation. In this research, condition-monitoring data on six different
buildings’ internal components are analyzed to anticipate their future
condition state. The components carried out are: 1) wooden flooring
tiles; 2) gypsum board ceiling tiles; 3) wooden doors; 4) wooden win­
dows, 5) split air conditioner units; and 6) desktop computers. A set of
35 distinct spaces from 4 different buildings at the Faculty of Engi­
neering, Cairo University, are utilized to compute the future condition
ratings from their input data. These 35 spaces involve 35 wooden
flooring tiles, 35 gypsum board ceiling tiles, 35 wooden doors, 50
wooden windows, 40 split air conditioner units, and 50 desktop
computers.
The amassed dataset encompasses condition information for these
components via a seven-point index scale as a monitoring tool, as clearly
depicted and discussed in Fig. 2. The collected dataset comprises further
physical parameters such as components length and width, last inspec­
tion date, expected service life, installation date, annual average daily
usage, Age, and the number of observation intervals per component.
Since ANN can acquire information from the previous observations and
then implement the knowledge to successfully handle calculations to
figure out the numerical values for unforeseen data. The knowledge is
attained via the learning process, entitled the training phase. At this
phase, the network is refined by utilizing a training dataset, portrayed as
the inspection records for the components mentioned above. The ANN
network learns and defines the relation between input and output pa­
rameters during the learning phase. The relation is construed via uti­
lizing the interconnection strengths amidst nodes through weights.
These weights are stored to be modeled to predict the future condition
state of the pre-defined components. This research utilizes MATLAB
Neural Network Toolbox (MATLAB R2018a) for developing the ANN
model.
4.2.1. Collected data processing
This model uses the Facility Component Average Rating (FCAR), as
shown in Eq.1, to construe the condition of the components from the
data assembled. By employing the computed FCAR per component, the
data are screened to be refined from any enhancement in components
condition during the inspection. Any enhancement in the FCAR value
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743

Fig. 2. The condition index scale for the facility components.

per each component signifies that maintenance intervention has been
carried out. These recorders will be exempted from the analysis process
to reliably experience the future deterioration trend in components
condition. Table 1 depicts an original sample from the dataset amassed
for training and testing the selected components. As previously
mentioned, the adopted condition state scale is a seven-point index, in
which condition state 1 implies that the component condition state
ranges from 99% to 100%. This index means that the component seems
to be either new or has been retained lately and does not reveal any
indications of deterioration. In this case, the action required is preven­
tion Maintainance, as seen in Fig. 2.
Moreover, condition state 2 implies that the component condition
state ranges from 92% to 99%. This index implies that trivial sub-
components may endure slight deterioration, and the action required
is very slight serviceability. The other condition state from 3 to 7 are
explicitly depicted in Fig. 2, including their condition index range, lin­
guistic depiction, and action required.
( )
7P1 + 6P2 + 5P3 + 4P4 + 3P5 + 2P6 + 1P7
FCAR = x100 (1)
7
FCAR is the facility component average rating value, and Pi is the
facility component percentage with a condition rating of “i divide by
100”, as “I” ranges from 1 to 7.
4.2.2. Input parameters identification
The ANN model output precision relies heavily upon the accurate
identification of the input variables. To identify the significant input
variables of the network, factors listed in prior research endeavors (ISO,
2011; ISO, 2012; Grussing et al., 2016); besides, around 25 facility
managers’ feedback to identify the substantial variables for educational
building facilitates components, which act as the network input pa­
rameters. The final selected input parameters are Age, Observation In­
terval (OI), Last Inspection Date (LID), Expected Service Life (ESL), all
are in years, and Annual Average Daily Usage (AADU) as a percentage
value. The inspection records of these input variables concerning the
trained components are collected as numerical values. These numerical
values are scattered. Their deviation is enormous; thus, they need to be
standardized using Z-score (Eq. (2)) to meet the transfer function criteria
utilized in creating the ANN model, Sigmoid Feature. In Eq. (2), z depicts
the standardized or scaled values, μ is the mean or average value of each
input variable, X is the non-standardized or raw data, and σ depicts the
standard deviation of each input variable.
X− μ
z= (2)
σ
4.2.3. Input and output layer
The input variables matrix for each facility component is designed
and represented as n1 × n3, in which n1 is the input parameter number to
the network (n = 5), and n3 is the number of components. The input
number prescribes the size and node number on the ANN model’s input
layer. The output dimensions use the same configuration as the input
dimensions. The network output layer comprises seven nodes, initiating
from condition state 1 to condition state 7, as represented in Fig. 2. The
ANN model output size is n2 × n3, in which n2 is the number of output
parameters (n = 7), and n3 is the number of components, as shown in
Fig. 3.
4.2.4. Hidden layer and activation function
During this stage, the neuron number in the hidden layer is deter­
mined to achieve optimum outcomes. Eq. (3) computes the number of
hidden neurons in a single layer commonly adopted in several research
efforts (Xu & Chen, 2008). Where n depicts the optimum neuron number
in a single hidden layer, Ip is the input layer size, and Op is the output
layer size.
n=
2 × (Ip + Op)
(3)
3
In the network properties, the transfer function used for the hidden
layer is “TANSIG,” which is accountable as a transition function from the
input layer to the hidden one and transitioning from the hidden layer to
the output one. The hyperbolic tangent sigmoid function is utilized for
activation, which has a broad set of output values that range from − 1 to
1.

Table 1
Sample of the data collected for wooden door components.
Component I.D Condition State FCAR Age OI LID ESL AADU

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 WD_4 0.56 0 0.03 0.18 0.05 0.15 0.03 75.8 14 6 4 26 73

2 WD_9 0 0 0 0.78 0.22 0 0 53.8 14 8 4 26 62

3 WD_13 0.76 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.02 0 0 95.5 3 12 1 37 28
4 WD_19 0.03 0.72 0.24 0 0.01 0 0 82.2 9 10 2 31 43
5 WD_24 0.10 0 0 0 0.75 0.12 0.03 46.3 17 3 5.5 23 88
6 WD_29 0.21 0 0.02 0.01 0.60 0.14 0.02 53.1 14 4 5 26 85
7 WD_32 0.03 0 0 0 0.82 0.10 0.05 41.6 17 2 6 23 93

5
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk
Fig. 3. The architecture of the ANN predictive model.
4.2.5. Learning and training function
The ANN employs the Bayesian Regularization function to prevent
the developed model from being prone to overfitting behavior during
training the network. Bayesian regularization is a technique to lessen the
complication of the model and is appropriate for noisy and extensive
information. This function is responsible for updating weight and bias
values relevant to the Levenberg Marquardt optimization approach
(Roweis, 1996). The Bayesian regularization method reduces the inte­
gration of squared errors and weights and dictates the right integration
for creating a distinct, optimized, and predictive network. Moreover,
another approach to ensuring the developed ANN does not overfitting
behavior is to stop the training process early at the optimum perfor­
mance epoch (Amasyali & El-Gohary, 2021).
The “TRAINBR” training function is selected in the network prop­
erties, which is accountable for the neural network training process,
depending on the parameters dataset, along with momentum and
learning frequency. Moreover, the “LEARNGDM” learning function is
opted responsible for weight and bias calculations and fluctuations for
the backpropagation.
For training purposes, the network adopts the “TRAIN” function for
training the neural network, which uses the training input and output
information as arguments. The training process amends the neural
network weights and ensures that the network and fine-tune models are
not over-fitted. A validation set requires to be added to the network to
verify if the error is within the range (this set is not utilized immediately
to change the weights but is employed to provide an optimal number of
hidden units or the setting of the backpropagation algorithm stop point).
4.2.6. ANN model validation
The developed ANN models performance is appraised by simulating
a set of test data not employed in the training process. The Coefficient of
Determination (R2-squared, Eq. (4)), Mean Squared Error (MSE, Eq.5),
Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE, Eq.6), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE,
Eq.7) are used as statistical indicators to anticipate future performance
or test assumptions relying upon other pertinent data and to attain
optimal optimized performance of the ANN. In these equations, yi de­
picts the targets, ŷi represents the network outputs, ỹi depicts the mean
of target values, and n is the samples number (Saffariha et al., 2021).
∑n
yi)2
yi − ̃
(̂
R - Squared = ∑i=1 n
(4)
yi)2
i=1 (yi − ̃
∑n 2 1 + SS− 1
i=1 (yi− Å⋅i)
(5)
MSE =
n
6
Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
√∑
√n
√ (yi − Å⋅i)2
√
RMSE = i=1 (6)
n
∑n
i=1 |yi − Å⋅i|
MAE = (7)
n
4.2.7. Testing the ANN models
The creation of an ANN model engages partitioning the data gath­
ered into three clusters. The first cluster involves the training set, which
is responsible for measuring and updating the weights and biases of the
network. The second cluster is the validation set, while the third cluster
commits to testing refined models with actual context data. This
research divides collected data into two clusters, in which most of the
data are employed for model training to compute the weights and biases.
In contrast, the remaining data are adopted to test the trained network.
The network training process exploits around 70% of the input data
using the Matlab random function, while the network testing process
adopts the remaining data. Finally, the model precision on the test data
creates a reasonable estimate of the model efficiency on entirely invis­
ible records and reveals the network’s real predictive potentials. After­
ward, the “TRAIN” function reverts the trained neural network
(optimized weights and bias of the connector) as well as the network
error. Besides, the ANN configures a 0.01-minute goal, 1000 times
epoch, 0.6 learning rate, and 0.4 moments for the model training.
4.3. Proportionate weight determination module
The proportionate weights determination of building facilities com­
ponents is still recognized as a complicated mission across entire
building facilities categories and prioritizing the building facilities
components’ importance levels, which differs from one space category
to another. This research consequently determines each facility com­
ponent’s proportionate weight computing process within each specific
space category. A systematic questionnaire survey is constructed for
experts to determine the proportionate weights of building facilities’
components.
4.3.1. Questionnaire survey design
For data acquisition and knowledge attainment, facilities managers,
asset management specialists, and academic staff, from Egypt are
considered for responding to the questionnaire survey (years of experi­
ence ranges from 10 to 30). The sample size population requested the
questionnaire survey response calculated using an infinite and finite
population sample size, developed by Godden (2004). For descriptive
sampling statistics dealing with uncertainty, Eq. (8) computes the
sample size for an infinite population.
Z2xPx(1 − P)
SS = (8)
C2
SS depicts the sample size for an infinite population; Z represents the
probability that a sample will fall within a certain distribution; P depicts
the population percentage opting a choice, shown as a decimal value,
and C depicts the confidence interval, expressed as a decimal value. The
infinite population formula computes the sample size. The sample size
derived from that calculation is adopted to calculate a new sample size
for a finite population using Eq. (9). New SS depicts the sample size for a
finite population, and Pop represents the population multiplied by
personnel working.
SS
NewSS = ( ) (9)
Pop
The questionnaire’s general question is as follows: “What is the sig­
nificance of each building facilities component in the analysis of the
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk
space condition?”. The questionnaire survey requests the respondents to
submit their responses with a 7-point scale, as follows: 1) very weak
significance; 2) weak significance; 3) slight significance; 4) neutral sig­
nificance; 5) strong significance; 6) very strong significance; and 7)
absolute significance, respectively. Four main spaces category in the
educational buildings (classrooms, computer labs, staff offices, and
lecture halls) are designated for the questionnaire to prioritize and rank
their components proportionate importance, which alters based on the
typology of buildings.
4.3.2. Proportionate weights calculations
Data derived from questionnaire responses are processed through
employing Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), which tackles the
interdependence among different building facilities components. CFA is
an empirical approach used in determining the linkage between the
variable and its indicators by analyzing the correlation. CFA is one of the
phases in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) that computes the in­
dicators coefficients, equivalent to the regression coefficient between
indicators Y with variable X. The coefficient is called the “loading fac­
tor,” which is a value between “0” (defined as weak) and “1” (defined as
perfect fit). When the value approaches point 1, this implies that in­
dicators are significant.
Moreover, CFA is adopted to identify the component indicator sig­
nificance of a variable. Building spaces, for instance, are defined as
variables in the CFA problem, and space components, including doors,
windows, air conditioning, floors, etc., are represented as indicators. A
loading factor depicts the results of CFA on each indicator’s significance.
By employing loading factors, the ranking process for each facility
component per each space category is identified, relying on elicited
questionnaire survey responses. Fig. 4 shows modeling the indicators
and variables relation in CFA format; besides, Eq. (10) computes the
loading factor of each space component. Y represents each variable’s
indicators, F is the loading factor for each indicator, X is the variable,
and Z is the error term.
Y = F.X + Z (10)
4.4. Entire space rating value module
This module exploits the anticipated condition-rating states of
building facility components, conducted using the ANN predictive
model and prior defined the proportionate significance of each facility
component to calculate the entire rating of each building space using Eq.
(11). Where ER is the entire rating value per each building space, SPiis
the name of each building space, FCAR is the facility component average
rating value within the space, as “j” represents each space component,
and W.F.Comp is the proportionate weight of each facility component
category within the space.
∑ doors; wooden windows, and split air conditioner units.
ER(SPi) = FCARj × W.F.Comp. (11)
j
Fig. 4. Confirmatory factor analysis model.
7
Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743
5. Model implementation
The validity approach affirms the proposed model for condition
assessment by integrating it via an existing real context. Condition-
monitoring data on six different buildings’ internal components are
analyzed to anticipate their future condition. The components carried
out are: 1) wooden flooring tiles; 2) gypsum board ceiling tiles; 3)
wooden doors; 4) wooden windows, 5) split air conditioner units; and 6)
desktop computers. A set of 35 distinct spaces from 4 different buildings
at the Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, are utilized to compute
the future condition ratings from their input data. These 35 spaces
involve 35 wooden flooring tiles, 35 gypsum board ceiling tiles, 35
wooden doors, 50 wooden windows, 40 split air conditioner units, and
50 desktop computers.
5.1. Condition assessment prediction
Throughout the ANN model, the input layer and output layer are
defined to forecast the future condition ratings for each facility
component. The input variables matrix size is [5 × 35] for the wooden
flooring tiles, [5 × 35] for the gypsum board ceiling tiles, [5 × 35] for
the wooden doors, [5 × 50] the wooden windows, [5 × 40] for the split
air conditioner units, and [5 × 50] for the desktop computers. The input
variables matrix size is variant attributable to the acquirable amassed
data over the last obtainable five years, concerning the condition
monitoring data recorded from inspectors’ visual observation. The
output dimensions use the same configuration as the input dimensions,
in which the network output layer comprises seven nodes, initiating
from condition state 1 to condition state 7. Table 2 shows a sample from
the input parameter values for the picked components generated from
inspection collected records.
5.1.1. ANN model results and discussions
The input variables are standardized and scaled using the stan­
dardization Z-score Equation. Table 3 outlines the collected and antic­
ipated condition state per each component as output values. The
network output layer comprises seven nodes that depicted the seven
condition states presented earlier. The developed ANN models are
validated using the Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Squared
Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute
Error (MAE), in which the optimal outcomes of the ANN models and the
best structure in training and test datasets are depicted in Table 4. The
coefficient of determination (R2), displayed in Table 4, represents the
ANN networks’ precision in predicting each component’s condition
state, relying on the input variables. Fig. 5 displays a sample of the
regression plots for models refined using ANN for six distinct building
components: wooden flooring tiles, gypsum board ceiling tiles; wooden
After exploiting the set of collected data for training the ANN model,
as stated earlier, the saved network architecture is employed to antici­
pate the condition rating for the selected components. These compo­
nents took advantage of the saved connection weights and biases to
compute the network output. The ages of these components are fore­
casted for the next five years (assuming no maintenance intervention);
the observation interval and AADU are retained the same, as their future
data are not feasible. Eventually, the network generated the condition
rating of the elected components for the prescribed dataset, as displayed
in Table 3. The FCAR is computed, using Eq. (1), from the ANN condition
rating outcome per each of the components, and the findings are dis­
played vividly in Fig. 6. From Fig. 6, it can be seen that the FCAR of the
selected components after five years frequently remains lower than their
initial collected values, which implies the suitability of the proposed
ANN to foresee and anticipate the components condition rating from the
defined input variables that mimic the components degradation
behavior. Fig. 7 depicts the average numerical value of collected and
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743

Table 2
Input parameter sample for the selected components.
Component Category Component I.D Age Observation Interval Last Inspection Date Expected Service Life AADU

Wooden Flooring Tiles WFT_11 12 9 2.5 26 50

WFT_17 3 12 1 35 28
Gypsum Ceiling Tiles GCT_7 17 3 5.5 23 87
GCT_13 9 10 2 31 43
Wooden Doors WD_13 9 10 2 31 43
WD_24 14 7 3.5 26 62
Wooden Windows WW_2 14 7 3.5 21 62
WW_21 6 11 1.5 29 37
Split Air Conditioner SAC_14 17 2 6 13 93
SAC_19 7 11 1.5 23 38
Desktop Computers DC_5 2 9 2 13 28
DC_20 7 12 3 8 34

Table 3
Output sample for the selected components.
ID C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7

Collected Condition State Predicted Condition State

(Input) (Output)

WFT_11 0 0 0.85 0.10 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.52 0.32 0.02 0.01 0.05
WFT_17 0.75 0.22 0.02 0.01 0 0 0 0.4 0.43 0.15 0.01 0.01 0 0
GCT_7 0.1 0.08 0.12 0.23 0.01 0.07 0.4 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.08 0.10 0.68
GCT_13 0.26 0.74 0 0 0 0 0 0.21 0.48 0.26 0.01 0.03 0.01 0
WD_13 0.02 0.71 0.24 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0 0.67 0.22 0.05 0.04 0 0.02
WD_24 0.01 0 0.11 0.84 0 0 0.04 0 0 0 0.85 0.08 0.03 0.04
WW_2 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.67 0.14 0.01 0 0 0 0.05 0.36 0.59 0 0
WW_21 0.64 0.24 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.02 0 0.01 0.61 0.31 0 0 0.01 0.06
SAC_14 0 0.17 0.01 0.15 0.67 0 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0.9 0.1
SAC_19 0.67 0.16 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.02 0 0.18 0.70 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02
DC_5 0.52 0.48 0 0 0 0 0 0.07 0.45 0.08 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
DC_20 0.69 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.09 0.07 0.04 0.01 0.38 0.56 0.05 0 0 0

Table 4
The results of ANN models validations.
Component Category Test Set Training Data

R2 MSE RMSE MAE R2 MSE RMSE MAE

Wooden Flooring Tiles 0.948 0.036 0.190 0.167 0.997 0.014 0.118 0.084
Gypsum Ceiling Tiles 0.959 0.158 0.397 0.762 0.944 0.033 0.182 0.153
Wooden Doors 0.959 0.084 0.290 0.533 0.923 0.023 0.152 0.111
Wooden Windows 0.945 0.074 0.272 0.357 0.862 0.017 0.130 0.108
Split Air Conditioner 0.986 0.124 0.352 0.574 0.97 0.019 0.138 0.106
Desktop Computers 0.97 0.177 0.421 0.855 0.965 0.027 0.164 0.175

predicted FCAR; for instance, the average FCAR of the data amassed
regarding the 50 wooden windows, computed using Eq. (1), is 72.22; on
the contrary, the predicted FCAR after five years time horizon (without
any maintenance intervention) is 61.42. From Fig. 7, it can be inferred
that the deterioration rate of wooden flooring tiles, gypsum board
ceiling tiles, wooden doors, wooden windows, split air conditioner units,
and desktop computers are 12.56%, 22.69%, 16.85%, 14.95%, 16.38%,
and 19.78 respectively.
The proposed approach is the first research endeavor to predict the
building’s components condition state via an ANN predictive and SEM
framework, which is dissimilar to the previous research works that aim
attention at ANN implementations in ecological sciences to generate
precise prediction models (Jahani & Saffariha, 2020, Jahani et al., 2021,
and Jahani & Saffariha, 2021), and ANN interventions in predicting
energy consumption in buildings (Elbeltagi & Wefki, 2021; Amasyali &
El-Gohary, 2021; Chen et al., 2021). The developed ANN models are
validated using the R2, MSE, RMSE, and MAE to monitor their accuracy.
Compared with previous research endeavors validation values, their
values are satisfactory and compelling to predict each component’s
condition state, relying on the input variables.
This research adopts the connection weight analysis (CWA)
introduced by Olden et al. (2004) to rank the significance of the input
parameters in descending order by categorizing the entire significance
measure of each parameter. The number of hidden neurons, weights
between the input parameters and hidden neurons, and weights between
hidden neurons and the output neurons are essential factors to compute
each input parameter’s entire significance measure. The results
retrieved from connection weight analysis reveal that the Annual
Average Daily Usage (AADU) acquire the highest significance in iden­
tifying the component’s condition state, which Age follows, Observation
Interval(OI), Expected Service Life (ESL), and Last Inspection Date (LID).
Table 5 depicts the input parameters’ entire significance as the ANN
model derivative of the wooden flooring tiles component.
5.2. Proportionate weight determination
The questionnaire survey comprises two parts: part one concerns the
questionnaire results acquisition; part two deals with analyzing the
gathered results to identify the proportionate weight per each facility
component in each space category. Eq. (8) and (9) calculate the infinite
and finite population sample size, as follows:

8
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk
Fig. 5. A sample of the coefficient of determination plots for the ANN models. (a) R-squared value for wooden flooring tiles; (b) R-squared value for gypsum board
ceiling tiles; and (c) R-squared value for wooden doors.
• An infinite population sample size = (1.962 × 0.3 × 0.3)/0.082 = 54
• A finite population sample size = (54)/(1 + (54 – 1)/2,500) = 53
The questionnaires are delivered to approximately 90 field experts,
whether facility managers or academic staff, aged around 10 and 30
years of professional experience. These experts are elected to cover all
aspects and dimensions of specified building spaces. According to pop­
ulation sample size equations, the questionnaire answers percentage is
approximately 68.88%, which is convenient and regarded as compelling
support for this research study.
5.2.1. The computational process of components proportionate weights
The questionnaire survey findings are imported into Amos software,
developed by IBM. Firstly, four Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)
frameworks for classrooms, computer labs, staff offices, and lecture halls
components are designed (see Fig. 8) to attain and reach the “goodness-
of-fit” that is demanded by the SEM implementation to validate and
9
Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743
ascertain the four spaces components framework. After creating the SEM
framework, depending on recapped questionnaire survey findings,
components inside the four designated spaces are assessed using CFA to
determine the components loading factor inside each space category.
CFA outcomes portrayed the ranking and preference of components
inside each space category, as shown in Fig. 9, via loading factors. Fig. 9
summarizes the questionnaire survey findings that inferred the sub­
stantial proportionate weight per each of the selected components inside
the four different space categories. Results revealed that the “desktop
computers” and “split air conditioner units” components acquire the
highest proportionate weight among other components predominantly.
This outcome attributes the fact that the educational building spaces
category relies heavily, in its functionality, on desktop computers and
split air conditioner units.
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk Expert Systems With Applications 186 (2021) 115743

Fig. 6. A sample of the collected and predicted FCAR.

Fig. 8. SEM framework for typical computer lab components.

Fig. 7. Average FCAR of the selected components.

Table 5
Input parameters’ entire significance of the wooden flooring tiles component
ANN model.
No. Input Parameter Entire Significance

1 Annual Average Daily Usage 1.12

2 Age 0.98
3 Observation Interval 0.87
4 Expected Service Life 0.57 Fig. 9. Proportionate weights of the selected components inside the four-
5 Last Inspection Date 0.49 space category.

6. Conclusion
This paper portrays a novel physical condition assessment model for
existing educational building facilities components via an ANN predic­
tive and SEM framework. This model aims to anticipate the condition
state of the building facilities components, prioritize building facilities
components for service-level interventions based on proportionate
weighted method, and record the portable influences of multiple pa­
rameters impacting the building facilities’ condition state. At the same
time and different from prior research endeavors, this model supports
generating an assessment of the latest maintenance services effective­
ness designed for identifying the severity of the designated and
demanded maintenance. The model objectives could be attained via four
consecutive modules: 1) scan to BIM module; 2) condition assessment

10
A. Gouda Mohamed and M. Marzouk
prediction module; 3) proportionate weight determination module; and
4) entire space rating value module. The second module is liable for
forecasting future condition ratings for each facility component in
various building spaces using ANN predive model. The third module is
culpable for determining the proportionate weights of building facilities
components and prioritizing their importance levels that vary from one
space category to another using the CFA model. Eventually, the fourth
module is chargeable for computing the entire rating value of each
building space relying on facility components’ condition-rating states,
conducted using the ANN predictive model, and defined the propor­
tionate significance of each facility component type inside each space.
The developed condition assessment model was incorporated
throughout an actual application context to test and validate the do-
ability of the proposed model. The case study findings and discussions
reveal the proposed model applicability in supporting clients’ and fa­
cility managers’ actions and decisions regarding the maintenance de­
mands via assessing a building facility’s components condition
concerning internal spaces and their associated physical components
based on the proportionate weighted method.
Even though the current research endeavors have accomplished their
primary objective, there are some limitations for further research at­
tempts to improve and broaden this research field. The proposed model
can be extended by considering distinct building types, concede several
challenges, considerations, and issues. Moreover, forecasting the con­
dition state of the building facilities components utilizing the ANN
model can be further improved by considering the uncertainties and
challenges correlated with the building facilities’ components degra­
dation during their lifecycle.
Funding
The research did not obtain any particular grant from governmental,
private, or non-profit funding institutions.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Ahmed Gouda Mohamed: Conceptualization, Methodology, Soft­
ware, Validation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data cura­
tion, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing, Visualization,
Supervision, Project administration. Mohamed Marzouk: Conceptual­
ization, Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal analysis, Investi­
gation, Resources, Data curation, Writing - original draft, Writing -
review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
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